2010 Rookie Draft Picks, Looking Ahead! (1 Viewer)

[footballsavvy]

Bryant may be a can't miss but I am completely disinterested in him. I need immiediate RB help. Last year, it was clear cut that Moreno and Wells were the only two who offered immidiate help. (Neither really panned out but may still). The next tier was also clear cut with D.Brown, L. McCoy. and Shonn Greene.

2008- Forte, Kevin Smith, McFadden, and James Stewart all offered potential fantasy contribution at the time of draft, meaning, they were not projects. (50% panned out) The next tier was CJ, Rice, Mendenhall, Hightower, and Slaton. (80% panned out this year)

My question here is simply which backs are in the top tier based solely on talent and which backs make up the next tier?

Are there 3 backs in this draft with tier one ability? Obviously, which team drafts them will sort out where they ultimately fall in the rankings.

I now have pick 1.4 and pick 1.7

Could I expect to land a quality back at 1.7? Should I take a flier on a Blount, Dixon, or Hardesty or go with the best available receiver. In general, should I go with best available talent? It seems more WR's do not pan out than RB's in this zone. Actually, the hot spot for WR's panning out are those selected in the early to misd second round of most FF rookie drafts according to www.mydynastyleague.com draft history.

If I have no interest in Bryant, should I stand pat at pick 1.4 or try to move up to get Spiller or Dwyer? Is Mattews just as good?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

This is a good post, Krem. I've hesitated to be critical of Bryant because I haven't seen that much of him, and some of the praise is so high, I figure I must have missed some really great stuff. What I have seen has been impressive, but no moreso than Dwayne Jarrett at SC.

Much better build than Jarrett. Stronger, quicker, and more fluid.

I don't disagree with your rationale, just the strength of opinion it generates on WRs. At one point in late 07 you said you might prefer same said Jarrett to Adrian Peterson and preferred Calvin without question. Too much WR love for me. I probably go the the other way and favor RBs too much, still believing I can find a similar WR later, but not a similar RB. Back then I wrote for all any of us knew Desean Jackson would put up better numbers than Calvin. In PPR Best and Spiller's value increase and I am more certain of both of them than I am of Bryant. Comparing Best or Spillar to Leon Washington is a bigger reach than comparing Jarrett to Dez, imo. And for all any of us know Damian Williams will put up better numbers than Bryant. Williams is really growing on me, btw.

I think in general you are right that it's easier to find a WR later than a RB. I just think that in this draft the only solid, sure fire "good" player is Bryant. So I think he should go 1.1 over the RBs in PPR just in terms of risk avoidance. Of course, he could still bomb. But it's also an easier pick than deciding which of the 4 RBs you like the most.

So we just differ on who we believe is sure fire.

I guess so. I think that Bryant is the "safest" pick of the top 5-7 players mentioned. I've seen others say the same. Do you disagree?

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

That's not the only question about Bradford. He also has terrible mobility. My friend who played QB usually has a pretty good read on these things. He swears that Bradford is the real deal. Accuracy. Poise. Ridiculous stats. There are shades of Peyton Manning here. He just needs to go to a team that will protect him.

I could see anywhere from a prime Marc Bulger to Drew Brees. Lot of variables with him [organization he goes to / his health]When he was healthy, I liked him more than Stafford or Sanchez. I like Ryan more & think he landed in the perfect situation to have many many Pro Bowls & elite QB statistical seasons in his future.While it won't happen IMO unless he doesn't test well and falls, I think the Rams would be a nice landing spot for him.

 

[EBF]

I think in general you are right that it's easier to find a WR later than a RB. I just think that in this draft the only solid, sure fire "good" player is Bryant.

That sums it up for me. I view Bryant as a can't-miss prospect. That doesn't mean I think he's a lock for stardom, only that he has a very high floor. I can't imagine him being much worse than someone like Bowe, Nicks, or Crabtree (barring a complete Charles Rogers-esque meltdown of work ethic). I would rather know that I'm getting a solid player than gamble on a prospect I'm less sure of. That's why I would take Bryant at 1.01 with no hesitation in a PPR rookie draft today. The only thing that will change my mind over the next few months is if someone like Mathews or Dwyer surges and lands in a great situation.CC mentioned Jarrett as a parallel to Bryant. Yes, I was high on him once upon a time, but the things I look for in a prospect today are different from the things I looked for three, two, or even one years ago. I try to learn from my mistakes. I think I understand why Dwayne Jarrett has struggled. I don't see any of his flaws in Bryant. Bryant is a flat out stud. He's one of the only guys in this class that I've been 100% behind from the first time I saw him play. Last year I gave a similar stamp of approval to Harvin, Crabtree, and Nicks. They all justified my confidence. I have no doubt that Dez will do the same. He's a sicko.

 

[EBF]

Bryant may be a can't miss but I am completely disinterested in him. I need immiediate RB help. Last year, it was clear cut that Moreno and Wells were the only two who offered immidiate help. (Neither really panned out but may still). The next tier was also clear cut with D.Brown, L. McCoy. and Shonn Greene.2008- Forte, Kevin Smith, McFadden, and James Stewart all offered potential fantasy contribution at the time of draft, meaning, they were not projects. (50% panned out) The next tier was CJ, Rice, Mendenhall, Hightower, and Slaton. (80% panned out this year)My question here is simply which backs are in the top tier based solely on talent and which backs make up the next tier?Are there 3 backs in this draft with tier one ability? Obviously, which team drafts them will sort out where they ultimately fall in the rankings.I now have pick 1.4 and pick 1.7Could I expect to land a quality back at 1.7? Should I take a flier on a Blount, Dixon, or Hardesty or go with the best available receiver. In general, should I go with best available talent? It seems more WR's do not pan out than RB's in this zone. Actually, the hot spot for WR's panning out are those selected in the early to misd second round of most FF rookie drafts according to www.mydynastyleague.com draft history.If I have no interest in Bryant, should I stand pat at pick 1.4 or try to move up to get Spiller or Dwyer? Is Mattews just as good?

I think there's a clear cut top 4 RBs: Mathews, Best, Spiller, and Dwyer. At this point in time I don't see a ton of separation between the four. You mentioned Mathews like he's a notch below Spiller and Dwyer, but he might actually be the #1 RB on my board when the dust settles. The only reason he isn't getting more attention is because he played at a small school. Had he played at Michigan or USC, he would probably be the most hyped RB in the entire draft. There will be at least one first round caliber RB on the board at 1.04. Maybe two if someone ahead of you grabs Bryant.1.07 will be a tough decision. I would take the best player available regardless of position.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I guess so. I think that Bryant is the "safest" pick of the top 5-7 players mentioned. I've seen others say the same. Do you disagree?

I think Bryant has the same chance of success as the top 4 RBs. I do not think he or they are locks. I think the two speed burners represent the highest ceilings and all five share a similarly terrible floor. So, I don't consider any of them sure fire. I rarely do. I was almost alone questioning Calvin Johnson, so that's just me I guess. Favoring some lesser WRs in combo with a top RB more than Dez with a lesser RB pretty much satisfies the issues in my head. Also, Best's size worries me quite a bit, not his talent. Some coaches just do not want to rely on small backs. But given a legit opportunity, I think he outproduces a high percentage of current NFL starters. For example, I think Best in Ryan Grants role puts up better numbers.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I guess so. I think that Bryant is the "safest" pick of the top 5-7 players mentioned. I've seen others say the same. Do you disagree?

I think Bryant has the same chance of success as the top 4 RBs. I do not think he or they are locks. I think the two speed burners represent the highest ceilings and all five share a similarly terrible floor. So, I don't consider any of them sure fire. I rarely do. I was almost alone questioning Calvin Johnson, so that's just me I guess. Favoring some lesser WRs in combo with a top RB more than Dez with a lesser RB pretty much satisfies the issues in my head. Also, Best's size worries me quite a bit, not his talent. Some coaches just do not want to rely on small backs. But given a legit opportunity, I think he outproduces a high percentage of current NFL starters. For example, I think Best in Ryan Grants role puts up better numbers.

I see what you are saying. I guess I just try to make things as easy for myself as possible and I think, as EBF mentioned, that Bryant has the highest floor among the top 5 so I would take him at 1.1 as a risk avoidance pick. But if you don't see it that way, I can see you taking any of the 5 at 1.1.I'm also coming from a unique draft situation this year as I have the 3rd, 7th and 13th picks. So I can take a WR at 3 and still get a darn good RB at 7, or visa versa. But in a normal year of just having the 3rd and 15th picks, I might react differently.

Agree on Best. I think he looks very talented but he has to deal with perceptions of his size, as well as the injury issues (which are more about his leaping propensity than his size). I'd likely put him 4th among the RBs. I think it will be tough to order Dwyer, Spiller, Mathews, but maybe the combine and draft will do that for us.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Bryant may be a can't miss but I am completely disinterested in him. I need immiediate RB help. Last year, it was clear cut that Moreno and Wells were the only two who offered immidiate help. (Neither really panned out but may still). The next tier was also clear cut with D.Brown, L. McCoy. and Shonn Greene.2008- Forte, Kevin Smith, McFadden, and James Stewart all offered potential fantasy contribution at the time of draft, meaning, they were not projects. (50% panned out) The next tier was CJ, Rice, Mendenhall, Hightower, and Slaton. (80% panned out this year)My question here is simply which backs are in the top tier based solely on talent and which backs make up the next tier?Are there 3 backs in this draft with tier one ability? Obviously, which team drafts them will sort out where they ultimately fall in the rankings.I now have pick 1.4 and pick 1.7Could I expect to land a quality back at 1.7? Should I take a flier on a Blount, Dixon, or Hardesty or go with the best available receiver. In general, should I go with best available talent? It seems more WR's do not pan out than RB's in this zone. Actually, the hot spot for WR's panning out are those selected in the early to misd second round of most FF rookie drafts according to www.mydynastyleague.com draft history.If I have no interest in Bryant, should I stand pat at pick 1.4 or try to move up to get Spiller or Dwyer? Is Mattews just as good?

I think there's a clear cut top 4 RBs: Mathews, Best, Spiller, and Dwyer. At this point in time I don't see a ton of separation between the four. You mentioned Mathews like he's a notch below Spiller and Dwyer, but he might actually be the #1 RB on my board when the dust settles. The only reason he isn't getting more attention is because he played at a small school. Had he played at Michigan or USC, he would probably be the most hyped RB in the entire draft. There will be at least one first round caliber RB on the board at 1.04. Maybe two if someone ahead of you grabs Bryant.1.07 will be a tough decision. I would take the best player available regardless of position.

I think you'll get a great RB at 1.4 and then you should take the best available talent at 1.7, which will likely be a WR from among Williams, Benn or Thomas.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I guess so. I think that Bryant is the "safest" pick of the top 5-7 players mentioned. I've seen others say the same. Do you disagree?

I think Bryant has the same chance of success as the top 4 RBs. I do not think he or they are locks. I think the two speed burners represent the highest ceilings and all five share a similarly terrible floor. So, I don't consider any of them sure fire. I rarely do. I was almost alone questioning Calvin Johnson, so that's just me I guess. Favoring some lesser WRs in combo with a top RB more than Dez with a lesser RB pretty much satisfies the issues in my head. Also, Best's size worries me quite a bit, not his talent. Some coaches just do not want to rely on small backs. But given a legit opportunity, I think he outproduces a high percentage of current NFL starters. For example, I think Best in Ryan Grants role puts up better numbers.

I see what you are saying. I guess I just try to make things as easy for myself as possible and I think, as EBF mentioned, that Bryant has the highest floor among the top 5 so I would take him at 1.1 as a risk avoidance pick. But if you don't see it that way, I can see you taking any of the 5 at 1.1.I'm also coming from a unique draft situation this year as I have the 3rd, 7th and 13th picks. So I can take a WR at 3 and still get a darn good RB at 7, or visa versa. But in a normal year of just having the 3rd and 15th picks, I might react differently.

Agree on Best. I think he looks very talented but he has to deal with perceptions of his size, as well as the injury issues (which are more about his leaping propensity than his size). I'd likely put him 4th among the RBs. I think it will be tough to order Dwyer, Spiller, Mathews, but maybe the combine and draft will do that for us.

One more comment on this vein of the thread. I practically ignored college football two seasons back. Things settled down somewhat this year and I've seen my share of games, but still not like I used to. Combine that with Dez not playing much this year and I just haven't seen much of him. The RBs I have seen at length. I appreciate yours and EBF''s opinions just not convinced Dez is who you think he is. Btw, you'll hate yourself if you take him over CJ and CJ ends up like... um CJ. Just sayin'. That kid's got juice.

 

[corpcow]

I think in general you are right that it's easier to find a WR later than a RB. I just think that in this draft the only solid, sure fire "good" player is Bryant.

That sums it up for me. I view Bryant as a can't-miss prospect. That doesn't mean I think he's a lock for stardom, only that he has a very high floor. I can't imagine him being much worse than someone like Bowe, Nicks, or Crabtree (barring a complete Charles Rogers-esque meltdown of work ethic). I would rather know that I'm getting a solid player than gamble on a prospect I'm less sure of. That's why I would take Bryant at 1.01 with no hesitation in a PPR rookie draft today. The only thing that will change my mind over the next few months is if someone like Mathews or Dwyer surges and lands in a great situation.CC mentioned Jarrett as a parallel to Bryant. Yes, I was high on him once upon a time, but the things I look for in a prospect today are different from the things I looked for three, two, or even one years ago. I try to learn from my mistakes. I think I understand why Dwayne Jarrett has struggled. I don't see any of his flaws in Bryant. Bryant is a flat out stud. He's one of the only guys in this class that I've been 100% behind from the first time I saw him play. Last year I gave a similar stamp of approval to Harvin, Crabtree, and Nicks. They all justified my confidence. I have no doubt that Dez will do the same. He's a sicko.

We had this discussion a lot last year with Crabtree vs. the RBs, but how far down do you drop Bryant in a non-PPR? I'm in 2 non-PPR, salary cap leagues. In one, I have a terrible team with 1.01 and 1.02. In the other, I have 1.04 and 1.14 and one of the best young teams (Matt Ryan, CJ3, Beanie, D.Brown, Santonio, Sidney Rice, Avery, Allen, Tuck, Lofton, Timmons, etc).

In the former case, I need the best talent available.. but wondering what teh relative value will be for my 1.04 in the second... is Matthews or whoever falls to me at 1.04 an upgrade (from a dynasty talent perspective) over Beanie & Donald Brown? (I also have T.Jones who I will resign, so not talking necessarily in teh short term, but who has the most long term upside).

Mostly, trying to get a sense of their respective talent levels regardless of position scarcity... e.g., are we saying the top 4 in a non-PPR are RBs because they are the clear best talents in the draft? If Dez is better than Crabtree (as I think someone said earlier) but not a clear-cut 1.01 in non-PPR, how do the RBs stack up to the RBs from years past?

 

[Chaos Commish]

My question here is simply which backs are in the top tier based solely on talent and which backs make up the next tier?

This hasn't been specifically addressed from your long post, so I will try to organize my own thoughts. The top tier is:Best, Dwyer, Mathews, Spiller (alphabetized, already discussed and likely will be debated at length for 4 months).The next tier is probably:Montario Hardesty, Toby Gerhart, Charles Scott, and Anthony Dixon. The last three are big backs, 230+, which is interesting. Several other names will probably work into the mix, in some mix or another, as some teams seek explosive playmakers over the big guys. Joe McKnight, DeMarco Murray, Noel Devine, Dexter McCluster (wr?), and possibly Micheal James. Then there's some mystery names. Last I heard Stafon Johsnon was pretty close to declaring. His injury (throat) shouldn't be an issue, and he is similar to Mathews with prototypical measureables and a nice player who could surprise. Similar to him is James Starks who missed the season with a shoulder injury, but also seemed to be highly regarded before going down. He and Hardesty are similar and if not for the missed season, I probably prefer Starks. Ben Tate could also end up in the mix with a great time, and I am likely missing someone. Alan Bradford was discussed above and has a chance to make a move in the draft (I'm a UCLA fan, but I love this kid from USC). Another big back. Lonyae Miller, Ryan Mathews backup, has also flashed excellent ability over the years. LaGarrette Blount may have salvaged something late in the season also flashing impressive game we were told he had.It feels like a unique group with all this hard to project depth. WR is almost always this way, but I can't remember RB being quite this muddled. Waldman, Bloom and the lesser media will work them out for us as they go through their pre draft rituals. Who'd I miss? Coker at Hampton has always intrigued me,. but he is aptly named.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I guess so. I think that Bryant is the "safest" pick of the top 5-7 players mentioned. I've seen others say the same. Do you disagree?

I think Bryant has the same chance of success as the top 4 RBs. I do not think he or they are locks. I think the two speed burners represent the highest ceilings and all five share a similarly terrible floor. So, I don't consider any of them sure fire. I rarely do. I was almost alone questioning Calvin Johnson, so that's just me I guess. Favoring some lesser WRs in combo with a top RB more than Dez with a lesser RB pretty much satisfies the issues in my head. Also, Best's size worries me quite a bit, not his talent. Some coaches just do not want to rely on small backs. But given a legit opportunity, I think he outproduces a high percentage of current NFL starters. For example, I think Best in Ryan Grants role puts up better numbers.

I see what you are saying. I guess I just try to make things as easy for myself as possible and I think, as EBF mentioned, that Bryant has the highest floor among the top 5 so I would take him at 1.1 as a risk avoidance pick. But if you don't see it that way, I can see you taking any of the 5 at 1.1.I'm also coming from a unique draft situation this year as I have the 3rd, 7th and 13th picks. So I can take a WR at 3 and still get a darn good RB at 7, or visa versa. But in a normal year of just having the 3rd and 15th picks, I might react differently.

Agree on Best. I think he looks very talented but he has to deal with perceptions of his size, as well as the injury issues (which are more about his leaping propensity than his size). I'd likely put him 4th among the RBs. I think it will be tough to order Dwyer, Spiller, Mathews, but maybe the combine and draft will do that for us.

One more comment on this vein of the thread. I practically ignored college football two seasons back. Things settled down somewhat this year and I've seen my share of games, but still not like I used to. Combine that with Dez not playing much this year and I just haven't seen much of him. The RBs I have seen at length. I appreciate yours and EBF''s opinions just not convinced Dez is who you think he is. Btw, you'll hate yourself if you take him over CJ and CJ ends up like... um CJ. Just sayin'. That kid's got juice.

Yeah, Spiller is fast and he can get there quickly, which is nice. I don't think he's quite as electric as Chris Johnson, but very few are. If I had to draft today I'd probably go Bryant, Spiller, Dwyer, Mathews, Best. What's your take on Dwyer? I loved him his Frosh year and still liked him a lot last year. But this season it seemed like Paul Johnson made him the A back almost all the time, which is a hard position to make a name when the defense knows that you'll just be running straight ahead every single play. Even when he didn't have the ball he got hit. Of course he still put up great numbers and he looked outstanding when he was more in the B back position last season or in a normal offense two seasons ago. So maybe he is the "hidden" gem?

 

[Chaos Commish]

What's your take on Dwyer? I loved him his Frosh year and still liked him a lot last year. But this season it seemed like Paul Johnson made him the A back almost all the time, which is a hard position to make a name when the defense knows that you'll just be running straight ahead every single play. Even when he didn't have the ball he got hit. Of course he still put up great numbers and he looked outstanding when he was more in the B back position last season or in a normal offense two seasons ago. So maybe he is the "hidden" gem?

Remember my approach to scouting is basically seeking plays that clearly translate while ignoring many of the detailed measureable analysis, that man among boys image is what I like. When watching Dwyer over the years, my typical thought is: "What's not to like?" However, I have always been a bit of a contrarian on the bigger backs. They take bigger hits and have shorter careers. They lose a step sooner. They are bigger targets. So I get more excited about a Chris Johnson, Mo Drew, Jerious Norwood, or Reggie Bush than most and temper enthusiam for the bigger backs. Dwyer just needs to earn a gig where gets touches to produce nicely. From there situation and health will tell the tale. I do not see a John Stewart type of explosiveness though. Dwyer is fast, Stewart was a freak (nevermind the injury influenced Combine time). Dwyer has nice feet for his size, Stewart cuts like a 200 pound back. I think Beanie is a little more sudden, or perhaps the better description is that Beanie is a little more natural or fluent at the position. I rank Dwyer a full tier below Stewart (who I think is elite) and in a tier with Beanie but not quite as promising. Close though. I liked Beanie more than most and above Knowshon, so this isn't low praise. If you or wdcrob want to take him tops among RBs, I wouldn't agree, but I wouldn't argue against it much either. I would laugh at your expense if a player you admire personally like Spiller ended up having the better fantasy value. This hobby is supposed to be fun, ya know. Biggest mistake I made in Z30 was passing on my favorite player in that draft, MJD. Still kick myself for overthinking that one.

 

[Psychopav]

 

[ConstruxBoy]

What's your take on Dwyer? I loved him his Frosh year and still liked him a lot last year. But this season it seemed like Paul Johnson made him the A back almost all the time, which is a hard position to make a name when the defense knows that you'll just be running straight ahead every single play. Even when he didn't have the ball he got hit. Of course he still put up great numbers and he looked outstanding when he was more in the B back position last season or in a normal offense two seasons ago. So maybe he is the "hidden" gem?

Remember my approach to scouting is basically seeking plays that clearly translate while ignoring many of the detailed measureable analysis, that man among boys image is what I like. When watching Dwyer over the years, my typical thought is: "What's not to like?" However, I have always been a bit of a contrarian on the bigger backs. They take bigger hits and have shorter careers. They lose a step sooner. They are bigger targets. So I get more excited about a Chris Johnson, Mo Drew, Jerious Norwood, or Reggie Bush than most and temper enthusiam for the bigger backs. Dwyer just needs to earn a gig where gets touches to produce nicely. From there situation and health will tell the tale. I do not see a John Stewart type of explosiveness though. Dwyer is fast, Stewart was a freak (nevermind the injury influenced Combine time). Dwyer has nice feet for his size, Stewart cuts like a 200 pound back. I think Beanie is a little more sudden, or perhaps the better description is that Beanie is a little more natural or fluent at the position. I rank Dwyer a full tier below Stewart (who I think is elite) and in a tier with Beanie but not quite as promising. Close though. I liked Beanie more than most and above Knowshon, so this isn't low praise. If you or wdcrob want to take him tops among RBs, I wouldn't agree, but I wouldn't argue against it much either. I would laugh at your expense if a player you admire personally like Spiller ended up having the better fantasy value.

This hobby is supposed to be fun, ya know. Biggest mistake I made in Z30 was passing on my favorite player in that draft, MJD. Still kick myself for overthinking that one.

LOL at the bold. That's exactly how I feel. That's why I need Mathews or Dwyer to overtake Spiller so the guy drafting 2nd in my league leaves me Spiller.

 

[Titus Pullo]

I think I understand why Dwayne Jarrett has struggled.

good to see you're learning.

 

[Rodeojones]

I think I understand why Dwayne Jarrett has struggled.

good to see you're learning.

 

[EBF]

I'm not sure Spiller is quite as good as you're making him out to be. I've seen bits and pieces of many of his games over the past few years. I watched his bowl game just a few days ago. There's no doubt that he's an elite NFL caliber athlete and a major home run threat, but consistency could be an issue. He's not a great inside runner. He's a bit of a boom-or-bust proposition when he touches the ball. Lots of bad carries overshadowed by 1-2 brilliant plays that go for 40+ yards.

Chris Johnson is a decent compare, but perhaps a bit too optimistic. What makes Johnson more than just a gadget player is his surprising ability to shoulder a full workload and reliably pick up 5-6 yards every carry. I'm not sure Spiller will be able to match those qualities. It's possible. He's one of the most exciting players in this draft class and he has the potential to become a star in the NFL. I just wouldn't assume that it will work out that way. He could end up being one of those guys like Reggie Bush whose dynamic athletic ability obscures the fact that he doesn't have a true every down position in the NFL.

I'm still in the process of working out this top RB tier. The problem for me is that Best and Spiller are the two most dynamic backs in this draft, but neither has the conventional sturdy frame that I look for in a featured back. Mathews isn't quite as electric, but he's much bigger and very explosive for his size. I think he might actually end up as the top RB on my board when I'm done with this process. He's probably the only "perfect" prospect in this year's RB class. You can make a case for Jonathan Dwyer, but he looks a little less impressive to me. When I think about ranking those 2-4 spots, it's really about whose flaw is the least damning. Do you take the brilliantly talented Jahvid Best even though he's acutely undersized? Do you take the big and sturdy Jonathan Dwyer even though he's a half-step more sluggish than you'd hope? Do you take CJ Spiller and his big plays even though he's also undersized with questionable inside running/durability?

I don't think it's easy to rank these guys. There are things to like about all of them and things to nitpick. The combine will help clear up the picture for me. Right now I'm leaning towards Mathews in the top spot with Dwyer edging Spiller for the second spot. I really like Jahvid Best purely from a talent standpoint, but I think his diminutive size could limit his touches/upside.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I don't think anyone really knows what their tiers look like until the combine. What if Spiller runs a 4.29? Or Charles Scott clocks a 4.55? Or Best weighs in at 181? Plus there'll be at least one or two small school guys pop up and make a run in the next four months.

That's the only reason Dwyer is at the top of my list as of right now. There aren't any questions I'm waiting on answers to.

So this will change, but if I had to draft a top-10 today:

Dwyer

Bryant

Spiller

Matthews

D Thomas

Best

G Tate

Charles Scott

Blount

Gilyard

LaFell

QBs and TEs

 

[FUBAR]

I would laugh at your expense if a player you admire personally like Spiller ended up having the better fantasy value. This hobby is supposed to be fun, ya know. Biggest mistake I made in Z30 was passing on my favorite player in that draft, MJD. Still kick myself for overthinking that one.

I've made the mistake of passing on a player I like who I believed carried less objective value to another - once. Chris Henry over Patrick Willis will never happen again. Since then I've grabbed players I liked despite what others thought and honestly haven't drafted a bust rookie in 5 leagues since Henry. (All I'm saying is draft your players, not what others think)

 

[kremenull]

This is a good post, Krem. I've hesitated to be critical of Bryant because I haven't seen that much of him, and some of the praise is so high, I figure I must have missed some really great stuff. What I have seen has been impressive, but no moreso than Dwayne Jarrett at SC.

Much better build than Jarrett. Stronger, quicker, and more fluid.

I don't disagree with your rationale, just the strength of opinion it generates on WRs. At one point in late 07 you said you might prefer same said Jarrett to Adrian Peterson and preferred Calvin without question. Too much WR love for me. I probably go the the other way and favor RBs too much, still believing I can find a similar WR later, but not a similar RB. Back then I wrote for all any of us knew Desean Jackson would put up better numbers than Calvin. In PPR Best and Spiller's value increase and I am more certain of both of them than I am of Bryant. Comparing Best or Spillar to Leon Washington is a bigger reach than comparing Jarrett to Dez, imo. And for all any of us know Damian Williams will put up better numbers than Bryant. Williams is really growing on me, btw.

I think in general you are right that it's easier to find a WR later than a RB. I just think that in this draft the only solid, sure fire "good" player is Bryant. So I think he should go 1.1 over the RBs in PPR just in terms of risk avoidance. Of course, he could still bomb. But it's also an easier pick than deciding which of the 4 RBs you like the most.

I'm not a fan of going for the "sure-fire" good player due to an unpredictable bust factor projection. How do we know at this point who has the most bust potential out of Bryant, the Top 4 RBs, Damian Williams and any of the other highly ranked WRs? If I'm at the top of the rookie draft, I will go for the guy who I believe will be a star player of the group based on my evaluation of their talent level, pedigree, and whatever I can glean from their perceived character.Taking Bryant should not kill you, but based on recent history, I don't see this situation as taking a guy like Calvin over a Marshawn Lynch, which many would/should have done in '07. I view this selection more as taking a guy like Crabtree/Nicks/Britt/Harvin over Beanie/Moreno or Devin Thomas/Donnie Avery/ Desean over Jamaal Charles/ Steve Slaton. In other words, it's not crystal clear which decision is the best right now.....personal preference of either a RB or WR could be the biggest factor, or maybe the biggest factors are the timely success of Chris Johnson and Jonathan Stewart????.....

 

[jurb26]

I'm not sure Spiller is quite as good as you're making him out to be. I've seen bits and pieces of many of his games over the past few years. I watched his bowl game just a few days ago. There's no doubt that he's an elite NFL caliber athlete and a major home run threat, but consistency could be an issue. He's not a great inside runner. He's a bit of a boom-or-bust proposition when he touches the ball. Lots of bad carries overshadowed by 1-2 brilliant plays that go for 40+ yards. Chris Johnson is a decent compare, but perhaps a bit too optimistic. What makes Johnson more than just a gadget player is his surprising ability to shoulder a full workload and reliably pick up 5-6 yards every carry. I'm not sure Spiller will be able to match those qualities. It's possible. He's one of the most exciting players in this draft class and he has the potential to become a star in the NFL. I just wouldn't assume that it will work out that way. He could end up being one of those guys like Reggie Bush whose dynamic athletic ability obscures the fact that he doesn't have a true every down position in the NFL. I'm still in the process of working out this top RB tier. The problem for me is that Best and Spiller are the two most dynamic backs in this draft, but neither has the conventional sturdy frame that I look for in a featured back. Mathews isn't quite as electric, but he's much bigger and very explosive for his size. I think he might actually end up as the top RB on my board when I'm done with this process. He's probably the only "perfect" prospect in this year's RB class. You can make a case for Jonathan Dwyer, but he looks a little less impressive to me. When I think about ranking those 2-4 spots, it's really about whose flaw is the least damning. Do you take the brilliantly talented Jahvid Best even though he's acutely undersized? Do you take the big and sturdy Jonathan Dwyer even though he's a half-step more sluggish than you'd hope? Do you take CJ Spiller and his big plays even though he's also undersized with questionable inside running/durability? I don't think it's easy to rank these guys. There are things to like about all of them and things to nitpick. The combine will help clear up the picture for me. Right now I'm leaning towards Mathews in the top spot with Dwyer edging Spiller for the second spot. I really like Jahvid Best purely from a talent standpoint, but I think his diminutive size could limit his touches/upside.

I'm not high on the Spiller band wagon myself. It's not often that CC and I seem to disagree on players either. I don't particularly think C. Johnson is the best parallel to Spiller though. I'd be more inclined to view him in the same light as Felix Jones. I love his big play potential, but like you I worry about his inside running.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I'm not sure Spiller is quite as good as you're making him out to be. I've seen bits and pieces of many of his games over the past few years. I watched his bowl game just a few days ago. There's no doubt that he's an elite NFL caliber athlete and a major home run threat, but consistency could be an issue. He's not a great inside runner. He's a bit of a boom-or-bust proposition when he touches the ball. Lots of bad carries overshadowed by 1-2 brilliant plays that go for 40+ yards. Chris Johnson is a decent compare, but perhaps a bit too optimistic. What makes Johnson more than just a gadget player is his surprising ability to shoulder a full workload and reliably pick up 5-6 yards every carry. I'm not sure Spiller will be able to match those qualities. It's possible. He's one of the most exciting players in this draft class and he has the potential to become a star in the NFL. I just wouldn't assume that it will work out that way. He could end up being one of those guys like Reggie Bush whose dynamic athletic ability obscures the fact that he doesn't have a true every down position in the NFL. I'm still in the process of working out this top RB tier. The problem for me is that Best and Spiller are the two most dynamic backs in this draft, but neither has the conventional sturdy frame that I look for in a featured back. Mathews isn't quite as electric, but he's much bigger and very explosive for his size. I think he might actually end up as the top RB on my board when I'm done with this process. He's probably the only "perfect" prospect in this year's RB class. You can make a case for Jonathan Dwyer, but he looks a little less impressive to me. When I think about ranking those 2-4 spots, it's really about whose flaw is the least damning. Do you take the brilliantly talented Jahvid Best even though he's acutely undersized? Do you take the big and sturdy Jonathan Dwyer even though he's a half-step more sluggish than you'd hope? Do you take CJ Spiller and his big plays even though he's also undersized with questionable inside running/durability? I don't think it's easy to rank these guys. There are things to like about all of them and things to nitpick. The combine will help clear up the picture for me. Right now I'm leaning towards Mathews in the top spot with Dwyer edging Spiller for the second spot. I really like Jahvid Best purely from a talent standpoint, but I think his diminutive size could limit his touches/upside.

We differ on placing Bryant, but this RB take is spot on with my thinking. I'm just holding out on Mathews for now, while you're holding out on the more dynamic smaller backs. That's typical of our persectives/preferences. That's a really , EBF. jurb, I'm being misread a little on how high I am on Spiller. Mathews is my boy, I just have a hunch right now he'll fall in the draft. I explained the hunch a little on the previous page. Like EBF, I struggle to separate and rank this group and I agree it'sgoing to be a process. If I'm pimping Spiller today it's just to convince Construx to go with his heart since they're hard to separate. Let's see how they test and grade a couple months from now. We'll probably agree as usual. I wasn't high on Felix vs his peers in that draft comparatively, and I agree with Spiller = Felix thinking. That might not be a bad thing though. Felix has a beefy YPC and who knows how he'll turn up with better health and more touches down the road.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm not sure Spiller is quite as good as you're making him out to be. I've seen bits and pieces of many of his games over the past few years. I watched his bowl game just a few days ago. There's no doubt that he's an elite NFL caliber athlete and a major home run threat, but consistency could be an issue. He's not a great inside runner. He's a bit of a boom-or-bust proposition when he touches the ball. Lots of bad carries overshadowed by 1-2 brilliant plays that go for 40+ yards. Chris Johnson is a decent compare, but perhaps a bit too optimistic. What makes Johnson more than just a gadget player is his surprising ability to shoulder a full workload and reliably pick up 5-6 yards every carry. I'm not sure Spiller will be able to match those qualities. It's possible. He's one of the most exciting players in this draft class and he has the potential to become a star in the NFL. I just wouldn't assume that it will work out that way. He could end up being one of those guys like Reggie Bush whose dynamic athletic ability obscures the fact that he doesn't have a true every down position in the NFL. I'm still in the process of working out this top RB tier. The problem for me is that Best and Spiller are the two most dynamic backs in this draft, but neither has the conventional sturdy frame that I look for in a featured back. Mathews isn't quite as electric, but he's much bigger and very explosive for his size. I think he might actually end up as the top RB on my board when I'm done with this process. He's probably the only "perfect" prospect in this year's RB class. You can make a case for Jonathan Dwyer, but he looks a little less impressive to me. When I think about ranking those 2-4 spots, it's really about whose flaw is the least damning. Do you take the brilliantly talented Jahvid Best even though he's acutely undersized? Do you take the big and sturdy Jonathan Dwyer even though he's a half-step more sluggish than you'd hope? Do you take CJ Spiller and his big plays even though he's also undersized with questionable inside running/durability? I don't think it's easy to rank these guys. There are things to like about all of them and things to nitpick. The combine will help clear up the picture for me. Right now I'm leaning towards Mathews in the top spot with Dwyer edging Spiller for the second spot. I really like Jahvid Best purely from a talent standpoint, but I think his diminutive size could limit his touches/upside.

We differ on placing Bryant, but this RB take is spot on with my thinking. I'm just holding out on Mathews for now, while you're holding out on the more dynamic smaller backs. That's typical of our persectives/preferences. That's a really , EBF. jurb, I'm being misread a little on how high I am on Spiller. Mathews is my boy, I just have a hunch right now he'll fall in the draft. I explained the hunch a little on the previous page. Like EBF, I struggle to separate and rank this group and I agree it'sgoing to be a process. If I'm pimping Spiller today it's just to convince Construx to go with his heart since they're hard to separate. Let's see how they test and grade a couple months from now. We'll probably agree as usual. I wasn't high on Felix vs his peers in that draft comparatively, and I agree with Spiller = Felix thinking. That might not be a bad thing though. Felix has a beefy YPC and who knows how he'll turn up with better health and more touches down the road.

An excellent point there about down the road. A RB like Dwyer or Mathews may be a better "fit" into a conventional NFL RB skill set and see the field sooner than a RB like Spiller or Best. Of course, Spiller and Best could end up being better in year 3. I think Spiller and Best are more landing spot dependent than Dwyer or Mathews as well. San Diego is a good example. They have recently loved the workhorse back (of course, hard not to with LT) but haven't in my opinion used Sproles that well. So I would be happier with Dwyer or Mathews going to SD than Spiller or Best.

 

[Balco]

I would laugh at your expense if a player you admire personally like Spiller ended up having the better fantasy value.

This hobby is supposed to be fun, ya know. Biggest mistake I made in Z30 was passing on my favorite player in that draft, MJD. Still kick myself for overthinking that one.

I've made the mistake of passing on a player I like who I believed carried less objective value to another - once. Chris Henry over Patrick Willis will never happen again. Since then I've grabbed players I liked despite what others thought and honestly haven't drafted a bust rookie in 5 leagues since Henry. (All I'm saying is draft your players, not what others think)

That is the best way to draft. Others might comment on my reaches, but I take players that I believe will do well based on what I have seen, not what I have read. This year, there are two players that I believe are can't miss studs - Sam Bradford and Dez Bryant.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I would laugh at your expense if a player you admire personally like Spiller ended up having the better fantasy value.

This hobby is supposed to be fun, ya know. Biggest mistake I made in Z30 was passing on my favorite player in that draft, MJD. Still kick myself for overthinking that one.

I've made the mistake of passing on a player I like who I believed carried less objective value to another - once. Chris Henry over Patrick Willis will never happen again. Since then I've grabbed players I liked despite what others thought and honestly haven't drafted a bust rookie in 5 leagues since Henry. (All I'm saying is draft your players, not what others think)

That is the best way to draft. Others might comment on my reaches, but I take players that I believe will do well based on what I have seen, not what I have read. This year, there are two players that I believe are can't miss studs - Sam Bradford and Dez Bryant.

I'm with you on Dez Bryant, but I'm just not seeing it with Sam Bradford. I don't understand all the hype on this guy. There is so much that I feel like I must be missing something. But every time I watch Bradford play, he just looks stiff and unathletic. I've just never come away impressed.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I would laugh at your expense if a player you admire personally like Spiller ended up having the better fantasy value.

This hobby is supposed to be fun, ya know. Biggest mistake I made in Z30 was passing on my favorite player in that draft, MJD. Still kick myself for overthinking that one.

I've made the mistake of passing on a player I like who I believed carried less objective value to another - once. Chris Henry over Patrick Willis will never happen again. Since then I've grabbed players I liked despite what others thought and honestly haven't drafted a bust rookie in 5 leagues since Henry. (All I'm saying is draft your players, not what others think)

That is the best way to draft. Others might comment on my reaches, but I take players that I believe will do well based on what I have seen, not what I have read. This year, there are two players that I believe are can't miss studs - Sam Bradford and Dez Bryant.

I'm with you on Dez Bryant, but I'm just not seeing it with Sam Bradford. I don't understand all the hype on this guy. There is so much that I feel like I must be missing something. But every time I watch Bradford play, he just looks stiff and unathletic. I've just never come away impressed.

Yeah, I'm with you on Bradford. Don't see what the fuss is about. Of course I'm not a very good QB evaluator, so that could be my problem, LOL.

 

[jurb26]

I would laugh at your expense if a player you admire personally like Spiller ended up having the better fantasy value.

This hobby is supposed to be fun, ya know. Biggest mistake I made in Z30 was passing on my favorite player in that draft, MJD. Still kick myself for overthinking that one.

I've made the mistake of passing on a player I like who I believed carried less objective value to another - once. Chris Henry over Patrick Willis will never happen again. Since then I've grabbed players I liked despite what others thought and honestly haven't drafted a bust rookie in 5 leagues since Henry. (All I'm saying is draft your players, not what others think)

That is the best way to draft. Others might comment on my reaches, but I take players that I believe will do well based on what I have seen, not what I have read. This year, there are two players that I believe are can't miss studs - Sam Bradford and Dez Bryant.

I'm with you on Dez Bryant, but I'm just not seeing it with Sam Bradford. I don't understand all the hype on this guy. There is so much that I feel like I must be missing something. But every time I watch Bradford play, he just looks stiff and unathletic. I've just never come away impressed.

Yeah, I'm with you on Bradford. Don't see what the fuss is about. Of course I'm not a very good QB evaluator, so that could be my problem, LOL.

Bradford is fairly accurate, but more than anything he was a product of his system IMO. He looked spectacular throwing behind the best Oline in college football and to some of the best weapons in collage as well in 2008. This past year, though he didn't play a great deal due to his injuries, he looked far less spectacular. I've never been that high on him and think he is a whole tier down from a guy like Stafford. He would have been the 3rd QB taken in last years draft. He should be a 1st rounder (granted the injury is cleared up) but i don't think he has franchise QB potential.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I guess so. I think that Bryant is the "safest" pick of the top 5-7 players mentioned. I've seen others say the same. Do you disagree?

I think Bryant has the same chance of success as the top 4 RBs. I do not think he or they are locks. I think the two speed burners represent the highest ceilings and all five share a similarly terrible floor. So, I don't consider any of them sure fire. I rarely do. I was almost alone questioning Calvin Johnson, so that's just me I guess. Favoring some lesser WRs in combo with a top RB more than Dez with a lesser RB pretty much satisfies the issues in my head. Also, Best's size worries me quite a bit, not his talent. Some coaches just do not want to rely on small backs. But given a legit opportunity, I think he outproduces a high percentage of current NFL starters. For example, I think Best in Ryan Grants role puts up better numbers.

I see what you are saying. I guess I just try to make things as easy for myself as possible and I think, as EBF mentioned, that Bryant has the highest floor among the top 5 so I would take him at 1.1 as a risk avoidance pick. But if you don't see it that way, I can see you taking any of the 5 at 1.1.I'm also coming from a unique draft situation this year as I have the 3rd, 7th and 13th picks. So I can take a WR at 3 and still get a darn good RB at 7, or visa versa. But in a normal year of just having the 3rd and 15th picks, I might react differently.

Agree on Best. I think he looks very talented but he has to deal with perceptions of his size, as well as the injury issues (which are more about his leaping propensity than his size). I'd likely put him 4th among the RBs. I think it will be tough to order Dwyer, Spiller, Mathews, but maybe the combine and draft will do that for us.

One more comment on this vein of the thread. I practically ignored college football two seasons back. Things settled down somewhat this year and I've seen my share of games, but still not like I used to. Combine that with Dez not playing much this year and I just haven't seen much of him. The RBs I have seen at length. I appreciate yours and EBF''s opinions just not convinced Dez is who you think he is. Btw, you'll hate yourself if you take him over CJ and CJ ends up like... um CJ. Just sayin'. That kid's got juice.

Yeah, Spiller is fast and he can get there quickly, which is nice. I don't think he's quite as electric as Chris Johnson, but very few are. If I had to draft today I'd probably go Bryant, Spiller, Dwyer, Mathews, Best. What's your take on Dwyer? I loved him his Frosh year and still liked him a lot last year. But this season it seemed like Paul Johnson made him the A back almost all the time, which is a hard position to make a name when the defense knows that you'll just be running straight ahead every single play. Even when he didn't have the ball he got hit. Of course he still put up great numbers and he looked outstanding when he was more in the B back position last season or in a normal offense two seasons ago. So maybe he is the "hidden" gem?

Dwyer played almost strictly at B-Back and very rarely at A-Back. The A-Backs are Anthony Allen, Roddy Jones, and Embry Peeples.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Yeah, Spiller is fast and he can get there quickly, which is nice. I don't think he's quite as electric as Chris Johnson, but very few are. If I had to draft today I'd probably go Bryant, Spiller, Dwyer, Mathews, Best. What's your take on Dwyer? I loved him his Frosh year and still liked him a lot last year. But this season it seemed like Paul Johnson made him the A back almost all the time, which is a hard position to make a name when the defense knows that you'll just be running straight ahead every single play. Even when he didn't have the ball he got hit. Of course he still put up great numbers and he looked outstanding when he was more in the B back position last season or in a normal offense two seasons ago. So maybe he is the "hidden" gem?

Dwyer played almost strictly at B-Back and very rarely at A-Back. The A-Backs are Anthony Allen, Roddy Jones, and Embry Peeples.

Sorry, mixed up the letters. The A back is the outside back and the B back is the inside back. Thanks.

 

[FUBAR]

Bradford is fairly accurate, but more than anything he was a product of his system IMO. He looked spectacular throwing behind the best Oline in college football and to some of the best weapons in collage as well in 2008. This past year, though he didn't play a great deal due to his injuries, he looked far less spectacular. I've never been that high on him and think he is a whole tier down from a guy like Stafford. He would have been the 3rd QB taken in last years draft. He should be a 1st rounder (granted the injury is cleared up) but i don't think he has franchise QB potential.

IMO he'll be a good QB if he's on the right team and a hot mess if not. He lands in San Fran, Arizona, or Denver and I think he does alright. Not Peyton Manning level but QB2 type. He ends up in Oakland or other places and I'm avoiding him. I don't like to play the situation with rookies or in dynasty in general, but with Bradford I think you have to.

 

[mikel2014]

Gerhart had another successful day against the Sooners with 132 yards on 32 carries and 2 TDs. His vision and speed are good, but like the rest of the year his power is what stood out. He'd be great in a RBBC with about 10-15 carries a game. I do think he's more than a goal line back. However, his running style is extremely physical and he'll face durability issues under a full workload. More so than other RBs like Dwyer and Mathews, Gerhart's role will depend on his situation.

 

[Balco]

I would laugh at your expense if a player you admire personally like Spiller ended up having the better fantasy value.

This hobby is supposed to be fun, ya know. Biggest mistake I made in Z30 was passing on my favorite player in that draft, MJD. Still kick myself for overthinking that one.

I've made the mistake of passing on a player I like who I believed carried less objective value to another - once. Chris Henry over Patrick Willis will never happen again. Since then I've grabbed players I liked despite what others thought and honestly haven't drafted a bust rookie in 5 leagues since Henry. (All I'm saying is draft your players, not what others think)

That is the best way to draft. Others might comment on my reaches, but I take players that I believe will do well based on what I have seen, not what I have read. This year, there are two players that I believe are can't miss studs - Sam Bradford and Dez Bryant.

I'm with you on Dez Bryant, but I'm just not seeing it with Sam Bradford. I don't understand all the hype on this guy. There is so much that I feel like I must be missing something. But every time I watch Bradford play, he just looks stiff and unathletic. I've just never come away impressed.

Believe me, I was extremely skeptical of Bradford before last season. Then I broke down a couple of his games . . . wow. His accuracy is off the charts, and I am not talking just about hitting an open receiver. He throws a great, catchable football, where only the receiver can make a play. I saw him make some great passes between defenders. And he does a great job going through his reads. Yes, he is immobile. But there are many qb's very similar. Peyton Manning isn't mobile, and Kurt Warner is a statue. Bradford is an elite qb talent. Obviously, the biggest question mark is his shoulder.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I would laugh at your expense if a player you admire personally like Spiller ended up having the better fantasy value.

This hobby is supposed to be fun, ya know. Biggest mistake I made in Z30 was passing on my favorite player in that draft, MJD. Still kick myself for overthinking that one.

I've made the mistake of passing on a player I like who I believed carried less objective value to another - once. Chris Henry over Patrick Willis will never happen again. Since then I've grabbed players I liked despite what others thought and honestly haven't drafted a bust rookie in 5 leagues since Henry. (All I'm saying is draft your players, not what others think)

That is the best way to draft. Others might comment on my reaches, but I take players that I believe will do well based on what I have seen, not what I have read. This year, there are two players that I believe are can't miss studs - Sam Bradford and Dez Bryant.

I'm with you on Dez Bryant, but I'm just not seeing it with Sam Bradford. I don't understand all the hype on this guy. There is so much that I feel like I must be missing something. But every time I watch Bradford play, he just looks stiff and unathletic. I've just never come away impressed.

Believe me, I was extremely skeptical of Bradford before last season. Then I broke down a couple of his games . . . wow. His accuracy is off the charts, and I am not talking just about hitting an open receiver. He throws a great, catchable football, where only the receiver can make a play. I saw him make some great passes between defenders. And he does a great job going through his reads. Yes, he is immobile. But there are many qb's very similar. Peyton Manning isn't mobile, and Kurt Warner is a statue. Bradford is an elite qb talent. Obviously, the biggest question mark is his shoulder.

I agree and think that the question isn't immobility....its pocket awareness and movement within the pocket. Can he feel the pressure and adjust accordingly? That is all that Peyton and Warner do to be successful.

I also am not sure of his arm strength....it isn't great, but he is very accurate.

 

[FUBAR]

Believe me, I was extremely skeptical of Bradford before last season. Then I broke down a couple of his games . . . wow. His accuracy is off the charts, and I am not talking just about hitting an open receiver. He throws a great, catchable football, where only the receiver can make a play. I saw him make some great passes between defenders. And he does a great job going through his reads. Yes, he is immobile. But there are many qb's very similar. Peyton Manning isn't mobile, and Kurt Warner is a statue. Bradford is an elite qb talent. Obviously, the biggest question mark is his shoulder.

Warner and Bledsoe are the examples to show what Bradford's floor and ceiling are.

 

[Balco]

Bradford's arm strength is actually underrated, IMO. He is not going to throw a 60 yard pass perfectly in the air, but he has no problems throwing 25-30 yard passes with speed and accuracy. Again, though, my question is, has the shoulder injury affected that permanently? Huge question.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Bradford's arm strength is actually underrated, IMO. He is not going to throw a 60 yard pass perfectly in the air, but he has no problems throwing 25-30 yard passes with speed and accuracy. Again, though, my question is, has the shoulder injury affected that permanently? Huge question.

I'm thinking more of that deep out or dig pattern before the saftey gets there....thats where that arm strength comes into play. However, he could lose some b/c of that shoulder like you said(kind of like Pennington he lost more and more as the injuries mounted).

 

[EBF]

I think people have a tendency to be hypnotized by athletic QBs. Hey, it's great that Jake Locker is an amazing athlete who's almost fast enough to play WR in the NFL, but that won't mean anything if he can't pass the football effectively.

Bradford is not an impressive athlete. He's very slow and immobile. Is this a fatal flaw? Not necessarily. A quarterback's job is to throw the football. The guys who have lasting careers are the ones who can stay poised in the pocket, read defenses, find the open man, and make an accurate throw. If Bradford can do those things then his lack of mobility won't kill his career.

I can beat Tomy Brady and Peyton Manning in a foot race, but that doesn't make me a better QB. The reason those guys are who they are is because of what they do throwing the football. When you're evaluating a QB, the first thing you have to look at is the raw passing skills. I think Bradford has shown a lot of potential in this department.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I think people have a tendency to be hypnotized by athletic QBs. Hey, it's great that Jake Locker is an amazing athlete who's almost fast enough to play WR in the NFL, but that won't mean anything if he can't pass the football effectively.Bradford is not an impressive athlete. He's very slow and immobile. Is this a fatal flaw? Not necessarily. A quarterback's job is to throw the football. The guys who have lasting careers are the ones who can stay poised in the pocket, read defenses, find the open man, and make an accurate throw. If Bradford can do those things then his lack of mobility won't kill his career. I can beat Tomy Brady and Peyton Manning in a foot race, but that doesn't make me a better QB. The reason those guys are who they are is because of what they do throwing the football. When you're evaluating a QB, the first thing you have to look at is the raw passing skills. I think Bradford has shown a lot of potential in this department.

I agree with everything that you say here EBF, however the most important skill for effective QB's is the intangibles. To be more precise, making quick split second decisions. The QB's that can see the safteys shift out of a cover 2 shell to a cover 3 or the blitz coming faster than others are the most successful. They are also the film rats that audible at the LOS to set up more successful plays. This is a hard thing for anyone to evaluate, much less us here at FBG's, which is why so many QB's fail at the next level because even NFL personel struggle with this. Kyle Boller can still kneel and throw the ball through the uprights from the 50, but he doesn't have those intangibles.

 

[Hendo]

I think people have a tendency to be hypnotized by athletic QBs. Hey, it's great that Jake Locker is an amazing athlete who's almost fast enough to play WR in the NFL, but that won't mean anything if he can't pass the football effectively.Bradford is not an impressive athlete. He's very slow and immobile. Is this a fatal flaw? Not necessarily. A quarterback's job is to throw the football. The guys who have lasting careers are the ones who can stay poised in the pocket, read defenses, find the open man, and make an accurate throw. If Bradford can do those things then his lack of mobility won't kill his career. I can beat Tomy Brady and Peyton Manning in a foot race, but that doesn't make me a better QB. The reason those guys are who they are is because of what they do throwing the football. When you're evaluating a QB, the first thing you have to look at is the raw passing skills. I think Bradford has shown a lot of potential in this department.

i agree 100% but do have to note Locker's being groomed under a more pro style offense under center and Bradford has not. In fact thats my only real concern with Bradford is his offense he was groomed in.... can he read a defense from under center? I liked Stafford this past year based off that fact and his throwing ability which i think will translate well to the NFL barring injury for him.

 

[EBF]

Good game for Noel Devine today in the loss against FSU. I haven't talked about him much, but he's an impressive athlete who could be a top 90 draft pick when the dust settles. The recent success of Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles has to bode well for him. He's cut from the same cloth. Size will be a major question mark though. The 5'8" 176 he's listed at makes him tiny even by speed back standards.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Good game for Noel Devine today in the loss against FSU. I haven't talked about him much, but he's an impressive athlete who could be a top 90 draft pick when the dust settles. The recent success of Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles has to bode well for him. He's cut from the same cloth. Size will be a major question mark though. The 5'8" 176 he's listed at makes him tiny even by speed back standards.

I am worried about the weight more than height. But, during the game, they said he benches over 400 lbs. Impressive. He needs to go to the right system, imo

 

[EBF]

Good game for Noel Devine today in the loss against FSU. I haven't talked about him much, but he's an impressive athlete who could be a top 90 draft pick when the dust settles. The recent success of Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles has to bode well for him. He's cut from the same cloth. Size will be a major question mark though. The 5'8" 176 he's listed at makes him tiny even by speed back standards.

I am worried about the weight more than height. But, during the game, they said he benches over 400 lbs. Impressive. He needs to go to the right system, imo

I agree. I'd like to see him weigh in at 190+. If he can do that then he has legitimate upside. If not, he'll probably be more of a gadget player. A lot of people will be looking for the next Chris Johnson. CJ Spiller has some of those traits, but Devine reminds me more of Johnson purely from a build/running style standpoint. He's definitely someone to watch in the second tier of rookie drafts.

 

[toxicbees]

I would laugh at your expense if a player you admire personally like Spiller ended up having the better fantasy value.

This hobby is supposed to be fun, ya know. Biggest mistake I made in Z30 was passing on my favorite player in that draft, MJD. Still kick myself for overthinking that one.

I've made the mistake of passing on a player I like who I believed carried less objective value to another - once. Chris Henry over Patrick Willis will never happen again. Since then I've grabbed players I liked despite what others thought and honestly haven't drafted a bust rookie in 5 leagues since Henry. (All I'm saying is draft your players, not what others think)

That is the best way to draft. Others might comment on my reaches, but I take players that I believe will do well based on what I have seen, not what I have read. This year, there are two players that I believe are can't miss studs - Sam Bradford and Dez Bryant.

I'm with you on Dez Bryant, but I'm just not seeing it with Sam Bradford. I don't understand all the hype on this guy. There is so much that I feel like I must be missing something. But every time I watch Bradford play, he just looks stiff and unathletic. I've just never come away impressed.

Believe me, I was extremely skeptical of Bradford before last season. Then I broke down a couple of his games . . . wow. His accuracy is off the charts, and I am not talking just about hitting an open receiver. He throws a great, catchable football, where only the receiver can make a play. I saw him make some great passes between defenders. And he does a great job going through his reads. Yes, he is immobile. But there are many qb's very similar. Peyton Manning isn't mobile, and Kurt Warner is a statue. Bradford is an elite qb talent. Obviously, the biggest question mark is his shoulder.

Yeah, he's definitely got great accuracy.I also think he's made great WRs out of mediocre players. Both Malcolm Kelly and Juaquin Iglesias haven't done anything in the NFL. While it's still early for both these guys, I think they owe a lot of their college success to Bradford.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I'm a Devine fan. I think he runs like Ray Rice but with even better quicks better speed. I was surprised he was caught from behind so blatantly today. Devine is very strong physically, but his arms are so short I wouldn't make too much out of the bench press numbers, nor would that make him a powerful runner. He is too small. I think it's safe saying anything Slaton can do Devine can do better. Problem is NFL coaches may refuse to find out because of his size.

Here's a tough one, EBF. Devine or McCluster?

 

[EBF]

I'm a Devine fan. I think he runs like Ray Rice but with even better quicks better speed. I was surprised he was caught from behind so blatantly today. Devine is very strong physically, but his arms are so short I wouldn't make too much out of the bench press numbers, nor would that make him a powerful runner. He is too small. I think it's safe saying anything Slaton can do Devine can do better. Problem is NFL coaches may refuse to find out because of his size. Here's a tough one, EBF. Devine or McCluster?

I think Devine is a RB and McCluster is a WR in the NFL. They're both exciting players.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm a Devine fan. I think he runs like Ray Rice but with even better quicks better speed. I was surprised he was caught from behind so blatantly today. Devine is very strong physically, but his arms are so short I wouldn't make too much out of the bench press numbers, nor would that make him a powerful runner. He is too small. I think it's safe saying anything Slaton can do Devine can do better. Problem is NFL coaches may refuse to find out because of his size. Here's a tough one, EBF. Devine or McCluster?

Love Devine. Hope he gets a shot. His feet are Barry Sanders-like, IMO.ETA: One other thing I've noticed about Devine is that he doesn't really bounce everything outside. They give it to him up the middle and he runs there a decent amount of the time.

 

[Balco]

I'm a Devine fan. I think he runs like Ray Rice but with even better quicks better speed. I was surprised he was caught from behind so blatantly today. Devine is very strong physically, but his arms are so short I wouldn't make too much out of the bench press numbers, nor would that make him a powerful runner. He is too small. I think it's safe saying anything Slaton can do Devine can do better. Problem is NFL coaches may refuse to find out because of his size. Here's a tough one, EBF. Devine or McCluster?

Love Devine. Hope he gets a shot. His feet are Barry Sanders-like, IMO.ETA: One other thing I've noticed about Devine is that he doesn't really bounce everything outside. They give it to him up the middle and he runs there a decent amount of the time.

I also really like Devine, no doubt he is going to carve out a solid career in the NFL. Yes, he is small, but the kid is tough, you have to square up on him to make a tackle. Unbelievable balance. I think his floor is Darren Sproles, which is a pretty darn good floor.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm a Devine fan. I think he runs like Ray Rice but with even better quicks better speed. I was surprised he was caught from behind so blatantly today. Devine is very strong physically, but his arms are so short I wouldn't make too much out of the bench press numbers, nor would that make him a powerful runner. He is too small. I think it's safe saying anything Slaton can do Devine can do better. Problem is NFL coaches may refuse to find out because of his size. Here's a tough one, EBF. Devine or McCluster?

Love Devine. Hope he gets a shot. His feet are Barry Sanders-like, IMO.ETA: One other thing I've noticed about Devine is that he doesn't really bounce everything outside. They give it to him up the middle and he runs there a decent amount of the time.

I also really like Devine, no doubt he is going to carve out a solid career in the NFL. Yes, he is small, but the kid is tough, you have to square up on him to make a tackle. Unbelievable balance. I think his floor is Darren Sproles, which is a pretty darn good floor.

Agree. He should probably be going in the early 2nd round of rookie drafts although I'm not sure he'll get drafted that high.

 

[mikel2014]

Pretty much a foregone conclusion, but Jahvid Best will enter the draft.