2010 SUICIDE/SURVIVOR POOL DISCUSSION (1 Viewer)

[PoolShark]

Took NE, GB, BAL, NO (whew!)

I like a lot of games wk 5, unfortunately most of them are road teams:

CHI @ car

PHI @ sf

ATL @ cle

SD @ oak

That being said, I don't think there isn't much doubt I'll be going with:

IND vs kc

KC has been playing tough & has an extra wk to prepare, but I really don't like picking road teams. Although INDY's performance so far against a horrible JAX team isn't exactly inspiring....

 

[eoMMan]

This is definitely the hardest week so far. I like Indy at home too but I'm not crazy about it. I might have to see how the week plays out as far as injuries go for all the teams.

 

[zed2283]

99% going with IND this week.

 

[Max Power]

Right now, Im thinking its between S.D. and N.O.

 

[bonesman]

I was the only person I saw to take Houston last week. It ended up pretty close, but I certainly wasn't' sweating it like all the Saints/Falcons pickers!

Indy has gotta win but KC is kinda scary right now... I'm sticking w/ the master plan and going w/ ATL.

 

[[icon]]

So much can change (injuries/growth) so it's dangerous to look TOO far ahead, but here is a breakdown through the next 5 weeks of any weaknesses involving these teams:

(Games in Bold Indicate a good path)

WEEK 3: BUF @ NE / CLE @ BAL / DET @ MIN

WEEK 4: CAR @ NO / SF @ ATL / DET @ GB

WEEK 5: CHI @ CAR / / ------ IMO KC @ IND is the Play here but see week 10 below

WEEK 6: SD @ STL / CLE @ PIT / DEF @ NYG

WEEK 7: STL @ TB / BUF @ BAL / CLE @ NO

I have used TEN & ATL so far and am considering the following path

BUF @ NE / CAR @ NO / KC @ IND / CLE @ PIT / STL @ TB

Loosely looking a bit farther forward (if things go this far) I like:

WEEK 8: JAX @ DAL or DEN @ SF

WEEK 9: ARI @ MIN

WEEK 10: CIN @ IND <<< DANGEROUS WEEK (see week 5)

USED BY ME: TENN / ATL / NEP / GBP

I was obviously eyeballing IND @ Home this week, however this KC team is gritty. This line honestly makes me quite nervous.

Other Options:

BAL at home vs DEN (-7)

Leaning IND this week...

LOOKING FORWARD (Looks pretty good!):

W6 : PIT (v CLE) -11

W7 : BAL (v BUF) -13

W8 : DAL (v JAX ) -12.5

W9 : NO (@ CAR) -10.5

W10 : HOU (@ JAX) -7 --- or --- SF (v STL) -10 (depends on how all are playing)

W11 : CIN (v BUF) -12

W12 : NYG (v JAX -8 ----- or ---- DEN (v STL) -9 (depends on play)

W13 : SD (v OAK) -9.5 ---- or ---- MIN (v BUF) -9.5

W14 : SD (v KC) -6.5 <<< Tough Week)

W15 : MIA (v BUF) -8.5

Only 1, maybe 2 road games there and the majority of the spreads are, or will be, double digits.

 

[Gamma1210]

Debating between ATL, IND, and NO. Leaning ATL after watching indy last week.

 

[Futz]

Miami, GB,NE, SD

I'm leaning towards Indy this week. When picking, I try to get into the psychology of a team's "mood". This past week, a 1-2 San Diego team that plays well at home took on a 2-1 Arizona. San Diego was in a "must win" mood where Arizona probably was pretty glad to be 2-1 at the time and that usually translates into a loss on the road vs. a good team. Result: SD smoked them.

Now, we have Indy fresh off a pretty irritating divisional loss to a lesser team. They are going home and will look at KC's 3-0 record as a challenge and will want to put this young upstart in their place. KC is in that "I'm pretty glad to be where we're at" mood and could get possibly rolled in this game.

With very few appealing games out there this week, this one makes a lot of sense to me.

 

[Joe Summer]

TEN GBP NEP NOS

I penciled-in the Colts for my Week 5 pick, but I am giving serious thought to changing my pick. The Colts are very vulnerable right now, they're missing their starting safety, starting WR, and another significant contributor (Donald Brown), and they're playing against an undefeated team that may or may not be as good as advertised. The whole thing just says "stay away" to me.

I am thinking about picking Dallas -- everyone is healthy, Felix Jones is going to get more carries, and Chris Johnson looked a little unsure of himself last week so maybe he has finally hit the wall?

 

[Futz]

TEN GBP NEP NOS

I penciled-in the Colts for my Week 5 pick, but I am giving serious thought to changing my pick. The Colts are very vulnerable right now, they're missing their starting safety, starting WR, and another significant contributor (Donald Brown), and they're playing against an undefeated team that may or may not be as good as advertised. The whole thing just says "stay away" to me.

I am thinking about picking Dallas -- everyone is healthy, Felix Jones is going to get more carries, and Chris Johnson looked a little unsure of himself last week so maybe he has finally hit the wall?

Wow. I get your reasoning on Indy, but Dallas is a much riskier proposition to me. Tennessee's D is pretty legit and I'm not going to bet against Chris Johnson.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Really scared to take Indy this week - its a sieve defence, JC and McCluser could bust out bigtime. Crennel knows how to contain Manning.

For now I am going with the JETS at home in a Monday Nighter. I am relying on Favre to throw some picks.

 

[Angry Beavers]

TEN GB BAL SD are used

Cincy at home to TB looks like that could be the pick. Cincy does play at Buffalo later, but frankly, in week 11 you could take the JETS on the road at CLE;

I am scared to take Indy as KC has had two weeks to prepare and INDY is not healthy. Besides, the Superbowl loser hangover could be in full effect for INDY, IMHO, this year;

DALL at home is tempting but do you really want to chance CJ running all over them?

NO on the road is also tempting, but I am trying to save NO for week 7 when CLE travels to NO;

I am not sure I trust ATL either on the road, at CLE, who just got win #1...

Decisons, Decisions

 

[Gamma1210]

TEN GB BAL SD are usedCincy at home to TB looks like that could be the pick. Cincy does play at Buffalo later, but frankly, in week 11 you could take the JETS on the road at CLE;I am scared to take Indy as KC has had two weeks to prepare and INDY is not healthy. Besides, the Superbowl loser hangover could be in full effect for INDY, IMHO, this year;DALL at home is tempting but do you really want to chance CJ running all over them?NO on the road is also tempting, but I am trying to save NO for week 7 when CLE travels to NO; I am not sure I trust ATL either on the road, at CLE, who just got win #1...Decisons, Decisions

CLE barely got a win over a division rival, and they aren't very good. I expect a hangover. Can't go wrong with NO this week, but I want to save them as well. Someone talk me out of using ATL.

 

[Lascelle]

Picks thus far: TEN, ATL, NE, GB

I've been tossing this one back and forth for a while.

Closest thing to a sure bet for me right now is the Chargers.

Granted, I hate road teams and San Diego is notorious for their 2-3 starts under Turner... but they've won 13 straight against the Raiders, McFadden won't play and Murphy still isn't 100%. Plus, they probably won't want to rest on their laurels like other years given how hot the Chiefs have been out of the gate.

In 2007, the Chargers lost 3 of their first 4 games under Norv Turner. However, two of those games were on the road to the 13-3 Packers and the 16-0 Patriots. They went 2-3.

In 2008, the Chargers ran lost to the Dolphins in Miami (they NEVER win in Miami) and went 2-3.

In 2009, the Chargers ran into the 5-0 Broncos and went 2-3.

In 2010, the Chargers face a team they've beaten 13 consecutive times. Don't think they're gonna go 2-3.

I especially like San Diego if KC upsets Indy in the early game.

 

[NajehHejan]

I’m in two pools and to date have gone same teams in each – Titans, Packers, Patriots, Saints. Last week was a close call, so unless the game is a slam dunk, I’m going to start splitting the picks. Will go Indy in one but am not sold on them, though I think they should win. I’m thinking of the sharkiest, hawkiest, sneakiest play and going Carolina in the other. No Cutler – Collins under center. Panthers are 0-4, they have a decent chance of getting their first win this week. Bears run D was terrible against the Giants. Look for Deangleo and Stewart to get things right this week. No guts no glory, it’s so hard to win these things. If Carolina wins and I advance, I have to have a leg up on the others. Or, I lose, just like I’ve lost every other year since 2004.

I do not like Atlanta or San Diego on the road.

 

[Lehigh98]

http://survivingonsunday.blogspot.com/

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week 5

The biggest issue I am having this week actually has to do with Week 10. In my league, Week 10 is when double picks start. Looking ahead to that week, there isn't a single game with at least a 7 point favorite on the board. As of now, the top spreads for that week are IND and SF as 6 point favorites.

IND

I am very surprised the Colts are only 36% this week. They are by far the best pick for this week, and people don't generally save teams for future weeks. Thinking about the Chiefs speed on the turf (Charles, McCluster, Arenas) makes me a tad nervous, but with KC coming off a bye as a big road underdog, and with IND losing a division game on the road last week, I like the big favorites at home. But do I take them this week or save them for week 10???

CIN

I like CIN winning here, but my math model has them at winning 67% of the time. I really hate to take teams under 75% but the Bengals have only 1 future game with a big line, and that is Week 11, where there are 8 big spreads. Its a tough call for me. My gut feeling is that the CIN D is too good for TB and Freeman on the road. It reminds me a bit of Freeman on the road @ CAR last year.

BAL

I'm not sure what to make of the Broncos. I thought they'd be terrible, but they have showed that they are a pretty good team. There are interesting psychological trends here are BAL won a division game on the road as an underdog, and DEN won a road game as an underdog, now an underdog again... Time to do some research...

The trends for BAL come out ok winning 67% of the time, but I still would not want to use them this week. They have a few games I would like to save them for.

NO

Can anyone explain to me how Max Hall, an undrafterd rookie free agent is getting only 6.5 points this week??? Yes, the Saints have been playing poorly, but still... Maybe Vegas knows something I dont.

The Saints have 6 more games as a TD+ favorite, so I am staying away.

SD

The Chargers are actually my 2nd best play from a numbers stand point. They are a huge favorite in Week 13 and almost have to save for the double pick week now that I have used MIN already (MIN is a huge favorite in Week 13 and most people will be able to take them)

DAL

Are the Cowboys a tough team? We will find out on Sunday because the Titans are just nasty. I would think a guy like Roy Williams will get 1 catch, be hit then do nothing the rest of the game.

I have the Cowboys in the same boat as CIN and BAL at around 67%

ATL

No way am I touching this game.

DET, JAC, STL, BUF

If you have a bunch of picks and want to go on a flip of a coin to get a really bad team out of the way, go for it.

In summary, the Colts are the the best option for this week. The question is whether I would take a shot at either CIN, BAL or DAL to save the Colts. I think I will split my 2 picks, IND in League 1 and CIN (who has the worst future schedule of the 3 teams) in league 2. I'll post my official plays on Sunday. Who knows maybe I'll take a flyer on DET last second.

1 Colts 36.1%

2 Bengals 17.8%

3 Ravens 14.6%

4 Saints 8.8%

5 Chargers 8.5%

6 Cowboys 5.0%

7 Falcons 2.4%

8 Lions 1.5%

9 Jets 1.1%

10 Jaguars 1.1%

11 49ers 1.0%

12 Texans 0.7%

13 Bears 0.7%

14 Packers 0.2%

15 Rams 0.2%

16 Bills 0.1%

17 Eagles 0.1%

18 Chiefs 0.1% .

http://vegaswatch.net/

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

2010 NFL Survivor: Week 5

Last week:

NO: W, 16-14

GB: W, 28-26

SD: W, 41-10

ATL: W, 16-14

IND: L, 31-28

A couple close calls at the top last week, but in the end we had 88.5% of OFP advancing. Not a big week for knockouts in our pool, going from 113 to 108, and the winners' group held at two.

Teams used (DAVE ranking): Green Bay (4th), Dallas (12th), Minnesota (18th), Chicago (22nd).

Indianapolis (vs. Kansas City)

This is kind of a weird spot -- with the Chiefs at 3-0 and coming off a 21-point victory over the 49ers, I'm somewhat surprised that people are so quick to go against them here. But the Colts have obviously been building up their reputation for more than one month, and there just aren't any other obvious plays this week.

Indeed, the Colts are are the biggest favorites of Week 5, although even they are only 76% to advance. The popularity is a limiting factor; this week's consensus numbers are all over the place, but the one thing they agree on is that Indy is the most common pick. It would also be nice to save them, with second half games at home against the Bengals and Jaguars, and a trip to Oakland in Week 16.

Cincinnati (vs. Tampa Bay)

At home against the Bucs after a road loss to the Browns, Cincy fits into the mediocre-team-hosting-a-less-than-mediocre-team mold nicely. The Bengals do have some future value, with home games against Buffalo and Cleveland, but it looks like there will be significantly better options both of those weeks.

San Diego (at Oakland)

Not the ideal time to burn the Chargers, since they still have their second meeting with the Raiders at home in Week 13. Saving San Diego is especially important for my particular entry, since the other really strong W13 option is Minnesota vs. Buffalo, and I've already used the Vikings. The Chargers are only favored by six this week anyway.

Baltimore (vs. Denver)

This is tempting, as the Ravens are the second-biggest favorite of the week (74%), and are not overly popular. The problems arise when you remember that Baltimore is actually good, and they still host the Bills and Bucs.

I'd like to take Baltimore this week, but not at the expense of future weeks, so let's take a closer look at those two. When Buffalo visits Baltimore in Week 7, the Browns also go to New Orleans. Having both options there would be nice, but it's not a huge deal either way. What I'm really looking at is Week 12, when the Ravens at home against the Bucs looks to be the best option. The added bonus is by that point most people probably will have used Baltimore, so even if they're big favorites they won't be too popular.

New Orleans (at Arizona)

The Saints are similar to San Diego -- a good team on the road that's favored by almost a TD this week, but has way too much value down the road (home vs. CLE, SEA, STL, TB) to use now.

The Cowboys -- favored by 6.5 and just seventh in the popularity table -- are also a solid option this week, but I don't have them available. For me, it's very close between Cincinnati and Baltimore, but I'd really like to have the Ravens available in Week 12, so the Bengals are the pick.

 

[dparker713]

I'm going with the Bengals here. Already used Ten, GB, NE and SD. The Bengals D is good and I just don't see the Buc's offense being effective in this game. Plus, the Bengals really need this game to stay in contention for a playoff spot after a disappointing game against Cle last week.

 

[SanDawg]

Had Indy penciled in weeks ago. But I am a bit concerned with the overall health of this team. I am now leaning on the Saints....two words....Max Hall. Just can't see it happening, at least not this week.

 

[Big Blue Wrecking Crew]

For the Cincy pickers, any concerns regarding the fact that TB is coming off the bye with 2 weeks to prepare? I know they are far from a juggernaut, but this keeps nagging at me.

 

[Futz]

Miami, GB,NE, SD

I'm leaning towards Indy this week. When picking, I try to get into the psychology of a team's "mood". This past week, a 1-2 San Diego team that plays well at home took on a 2-1 Arizona. San Diego was in a "must win" mood where Arizona probably was pretty glad to be 2-1 at the time and that usually translates into a loss on the road vs. a good team. Result: SD smoked them.

Now, we have Indy fresh off a pretty irritating divisional loss to a lesser team. They are going home and will look at KC's 3-0 record as a challenge and will want to put this young upstart in their place. KC is in that "I'm pretty glad to be where we're at" mood and could get possibly rolled in this game.

With very few appealing games out there this week, this one makes a lot of sense to me.

After all this psychoanalysis, I'm going to change my pick to New Orleans. With all of Indy's issues (especially Collie not playing and Garcon not being right) I just can't stomach this game. I just don't see a way Arizona tops New Orleans.

 

[NajehHejan]

Although I think the Panthers will beat the Bears, I'm changing my mind and going Colts in both pools. I do respect the Chiefs and what they've done to date, as well as Romeo's success against Manning, but I just can't see the Colts losing at home with so much on the line as they already have two division losses. It could be close, but I doubt it. I see a focused Colts team coming out all business, getting an early 14-0 lead, and KC scrambling/panicking and abandoning their game plan to run the ball and putting the ball in Cassel's hands to win it, which he won't.

 

[zed2283]

Steelers this week?

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Steelers this week?

Steelers or Giants look like the best options

 

[username]

I think I'm going with the football giants this week... the stillers have a really soft schedule so hopefully i can advance without torching them.

 

[Futz]

Miami, GB,NE, SD, Indy

I'm leaning towards Indy this week. When picking, I try to get into the psychology of a team's "mood". This past week, a 1-2 San Diego team that plays well at home took on a 2-1 Arizona. San Diego was in a "must win" mood where Arizona probably was pretty glad to be 2-1 at the time and that usually translates into a loss on the road vs. a good team. Result: SD smoked them.

Now, we have Indy fresh off a pretty irritating divisional loss to a lesser team. They are going home and will look at KC's 3-0 record as a challenge and will want to put this young upstart in their place. KC is in that "I'm pretty glad to be where we're at" mood and could get possibly rolled in this game.

With very few appealing games out there this week, this one makes a lot of sense to me.

After all this psychoanalysis, I'm going to change my pick to New Orleans. With all of Indy's issues (especially Collie not playing and Garcon not being right) I just can't stomach this game. I just don't see a way Arizona tops New Orleans.

I ended up changing my pick back to Indy at the last second because Collie was going to play! hew:On to week 6:

Miami, GB,NE, SD, Indy

66 peeps down to 16

Normally I'd probably avoid the bandwagon pick of Pittsburgh here and go with Chicago at home vs. Seattle. However, with as well as Pitt is playing and now you add a true QB to that offense, this has got lock of the week written all over it. Let's move on and let the others be daring. That's how I've gotten this far I think.

 

[puckalicious]

In a large 3-strikes league like mine you really need to save teams like PIT and NYG for the playoffs. The only other games with a line over 3-4 pts are CHI vs SEA and SF vs OAK.

CHI seems like the better option but as of right now they own their division and will be in the playoffs, so it would be wise to save them. While SF has mostly played well in their 5 losses I'm not sure I can pick them, even against OAK.

Would anyone here have the cojones to pick SF this week?

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Miami, GB,NE, SD, Indy

I'm leaning towards Indy this week. When picking, I try to get into the psychology of a team's "mood". This past week, a 1-2 San Diego team that plays well at home took on a 2-1 Arizona. San Diego was in a "must win" mood where Arizona probably was pretty glad to be 2-1 at the time and that usually translates into a loss on the road vs. a good team. Result: SD smoked them.

Now, we have Indy fresh off a pretty irritating divisional loss to a lesser team. They are going home and will look at KC's 3-0 record as a challenge and will want to put this young upstart in their place. KC is in that "I'm pretty glad to be where we're at" mood and could get possibly rolled in this game.

With very few appealing games out there this week, this one makes a lot of sense to me.

After all this psychoanalysis, I'm going to change my pick to New Orleans. With all of Indy's issues (especially Collie not playing and Garcon not being right) I just can't stomach this game. I just don't see a way Arizona tops New Orleans.

I ended up changing my pick back to Indy at the last second because Collie was going to play! hew:On to week 6:

Miami, GB,NE, SD, Indy

66 peeps down to 16

Normally I'd probably avoid the bandwagon pick of Pittsburgh here and go with Chicago at home vs. Seattle. However, with as well as Pitt is playing and now you add a true QB to that offense, this has got lock of the week written all over it. Let's move on and let the others be daring. That's how I've gotten this far I think.

SEA has an aggressive defense that forces turnovers.CHI has Jay Cutler.

That game is ripe for an upset.

 

[Futz]

Miami, GB,NE, SD, Indy

I'm leaning towards Indy this week. When picking, I try to get into the psychology of a team's "mood". This past week, a 1-2 San Diego team that plays well at home took on a 2-1 Arizona. San Diego was in a "must win" mood where Arizona probably was pretty glad to be 2-1 at the time and that usually translates into a loss on the road vs. a good team. Result: SD smoked them.

Now, we have Indy fresh off a pretty irritating divisional loss to a lesser team. They are going home and will look at KC's 3-0 record as a challenge and will want to put this young upstart in their place. KC is in that "I'm pretty glad to be where we're at" mood and could get possibly rolled in this game.

With very few appealing games out there this week, this one makes a lot of sense to me.

After all this psychoanalysis, I'm going to change my pick to New Orleans. With all of Indy's issues (especially Collie not playing and Garcon not being right) I just can't stomach this game. I just don't see a way Arizona tops New Orleans.

I ended up changing my pick back to Indy at the last second because Collie was going to play! hew:On to week 6:

Miami, GB,NE, SD, Indy

66 peeps down to 16

Normally I'd probably avoid the bandwagon pick of Pittsburgh here and go with Chicago at home vs. Seattle. However, with as well as Pitt is playing and now you add a true QB to that offense, this has got lock of the week written all over it. Let's move on and let the others be daring. That's how I've gotten this far I think.

SEA has an aggressive defense that forces turnovers.CHI has Jay Cutler.

That game is ripe for an upset.

Did you read the whole post? Chicago is an option this week but not my pick.

 

[puckalicious]

SEA has an aggressive defense that forces turnovers.CHI has Jay Cutler.That game is ripe for an upset.

SEA really struggles on the road, especially playing early. Look at this season, 2 home games and 2 road games so far - 58pts scored (26 allowed) at home vs only 17pts scored (51 allowed) on the road.Total jeckyl & hyde team. With Cutler back for CHI, this seems like a safe pick to me.

 

[Futz]

SEA has an aggressive defense that forces turnovers.CHI has Jay Cutler.That game is ripe for an upset.

SEA really struggles on the road, especially playing early. Look at this season, 2 home games and 2 road games so far - 58pts scored (26 allowed) at home vs only 17pts scored (51 allowed) on the road.Total jeckyl & hyde team. With Cutler back for CHI, this seems like a safe pick to me.

 

[Futz]

Miam,GB,NE,Indy,Pitt

66 down to 15

Everyone and there brother will be leaning on Baltimore this week against Buffalo. It's a very safe pick indeed, however I'm going to start straying away from the crowd a bit now and hope for a bench clearing upset sooner or later. I'm going to save Baltimore for either week 11 or 12 because they are both pretty tough weeks at this point.

New Orleans at home vs Cleveland is how I'm going to roll.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

SEA has an aggressive defense that forces turnovers.CHI has Jay Cutler.That game is ripe for an upset.

SEA really struggles on the road, especially playing early. Look at this season, 2 home games and 2 road games so far - 58pts scored (26 allowed) at home vs only 17pts scored (51 allowed) on the road.Total jeckyl & hyde team. With Cutler back for CHI, this seems like a safe pick to me.

I win.

 

[zed2283]

I've got both BAL and NO left, but am still undecided on what to do. May need BAL in week 11 or 12, but the same could be said for NO in a tough week 14.

 

[harryhood]

Miam,GB,NE,Indy,Pitt

66 down to 15

Everyone and there brother will be leaning on Baltimore this week against Buffalo. It's a very safe pick indeed, however I'm going to start straying away from the crowd a bit now and hope for a bench clearing upset sooner or later. I'm going to save Baltimore for either week 11 or 12 because they are both pretty tough weeks at this point.

New Orleans at home vs Cleveland is how I'm going to roll.

I am thinking the same way now as our pool is only down to 9 remaining but looking at the statistics, only 4 teams remaining can actually use Baltimore. Debating on whether to get cute and save Baltimore for W11 or W12 or just take them and hope the half that cant use them make the wrong decision.

Only other team I would consider, that is available to me is KC(v. Jax).

 

[Exit 1]

I will probably use KC or Seattle at home.....still undecided.

 

[skillz]

I've got both BAL and NO left, but am still undecided on what to do. May need BAL in week 11 or 12, but the same could be said for NO in a tough week 14.

I already used Balt. I am going KC over NO b/c I want NO for week 14. KC should be fired up at home after a tough loss to Hou and Jax has a short week and looked terrible vs. Tenn. Garrard's status is up in the air too so Edwards may have to start. Perfect time to use KC IMO.

 

[Futz]

I've got both BAL and NO left, but am still undecided on what to do. May need BAL in week 11 or 12, but the same could be said for NO in a tough week 14.

I already used Balt. I am going KC over NO b/c I want NO for week 14. KC should be fired up at home after a tough loss to Hou and Jax has a short week and looked terrible vs. Tenn. Garrard's status is up in the air too so Edwards may have to start. Perfect time to use KC IMO.

Actually, week 8 vs. Buffalo is looking like the perfect time to use KC. That's a brutal week as well. The only other team that looks appetizing might be Dallas home v. Jax but it is Dallas we're talking about.

 

[Futz]

Miam,GB,NE,Indy,Pitt

66 down to 15

Everyone and there brother will be leaning on Baltimore this week against Buffalo. It's a very safe pick indeed, however I'm going to start straying away from the crowd a bit now and hope for a bench clearing upset sooner or later. I'm going to save Baltimore for either week 11 or 12 because they are both pretty tough weeks at this point.

New Orleans at home vs Cleveland is how I'm going to roll.

I am thinking the same way now as our pool is only down to 9 remaining but looking at the statistics, only 4 teams remaining can actually use Baltimore. Debating on whether to get cute and save Baltimore for W11 or W12 or just take them and hope the half that cant use them make the wrong decision.

Only other team I would consider, that is available to me is KC(v. Jax).

I took a peek at the league selections and surprisingly 9 of 15 had taken Baltimore and 11 of 15 had taken N.O. already. I'm sitting in pretty decent shape either way here.

 

[zed2283]

I've got both BAL and NO left, but am still undecided on what to do. May need BAL in week 11 or 12, but the same could be said for NO in a tough week 14.

I already used Balt. I am going KC over NO b/c I want NO for week 14. KC should be fired up at home after a tough loss to Hou and Jax has a short week and looked terrible vs. Tenn. Garrard's status is up in the air too so Edwards may have to start. Perfect time to use KC IMO.

Actually, week 8 vs. Buffalo is looking like the perfect time to use KC. That's a brutal week as well. The only other team that looks appetizing might be Dallas home v. Jax but it is Dallas we're talking about.

That's what I was thinking as well. I'd like to have KC available for next week. Not sure I can trust Dallas for that week.

 

[[icon]]

USED BY ME:

TENN / ATL / NEP / GBP / IND / PIT

W7 : BAL (v BUF) -13

LOOKING FORWARD UPDATED (leans bolded):

W8 : DAL (v JAX ) -9.5

W9 : NO (@ CAR) -10.5 ---- or ----- MIN (vARI) -10

W10 : NYJ (@CLE) -10

W11 : CIN (v BUF) -9.5 ----- or ----- NO (v SEA) -10

W12 : NYG (v JAX) -7 ----- or ---- DEN (v STL) -7.5

W13 : SD (v OAK) -9.5 ---- or ---- MIN (v BUF) -14

W14 : SD (v KC) -6.5 ---- or ----- NO (vSTL) -14 (<<< Tough Week)

W15 : MIA (v BUF) -810

Only 1, maybe 2 road games there and the majority of the spreads are double digits (or close).

 

[Joe Summer]

TEN GBP NEP NOS BAL NYG

Leaning heavily toward Kansas City this week, because I think the Chiefs are going to have one of those years where they beat up on a lot of weak teams and then lose to anyone who is remotely decent. And Jacksonville (with Todd Bouman at QB) is NOT remotely decent. I think this week represents my best chance of "clearing" KC in my pool.

I had been thinking of going with Pittsburgh (vs. MIA), but I'd rather save them for Weeks 11 or 12 (Oakland/Buffalo).

 

[harryhood]

I think this week represents my best chance of "clearing" KC in my pool.

Don't like 'em next week in Arrowhead against Buffalo?

 

[Futz]

I think this week represents my best chance of "clearing" KC in my pool.

Don't like 'em next week in Arrowhead against Buffalo?

I agree with you but I do see the flip side of this scenario. Jax is in total QB dissaray. With no real options, their only weapon (MJD) will become a non factor (again). I really dont see a way Jax can win this game.However, Buffalo does have a little more stability and really hungry for a win of any kind. That alone can make them dangerous. They have played some good teams close. (Miami/NE) I'm starting to have second thoughts on my strategy. (NO wk 7) (KC wk8)

 

[harryhood]

.......and all hell has broken loose.

Dallas and KC looked like great picks last week. I really think one of them gets beat this week. Just not sure which one.

 

[C-Bound]

Going with Dallas this week.

 

[kingcoin1]

What are people thinking about this GB @NY Jets game? I pick a loser each week and already used Buff and Jax.

Jets healthy coming off a bye. All of GB's injuries, especially on defense. NY should run all over them (Peterson had 170+ total yards rush/rec). LT/Greene should do well.

Is anyone confident that the NY defense can hold down Rodgers?

 

[[icon]]

Gotta stick with Dallas here IMO though not really comfortable with any of these games.

 

[zed2283]

Jets or Browns? When will the Jets luck catch up to them? And when will the Bengals finally put it together? The perfect Survivor storm of doom?

I liked the Brownies until Colt got hurt. Can I really gamble my money on Joke Delhomme?

 

[LaneOfSteel™]

I still have NE left so I am rolling with them. Hate using a road team, esp on thxgiving, but I have a bad feeling about both Clev and NYJ this week...