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2011 Coach Otis All-Value Team (1 Viewer)

Otis

Footballguy
Welcome back, friends. It's 2011 and there's football in the air, and the guppies are nervously gripping their cheat sheets. It's once again time for the hawks to do some fine dining from above. In case you don't recall our format, here's the summary from last year's thread:

Folks here are telling you what to do with your first round pick. Your second round pick. You've got draft dominators, and draft apps, and team raters, and master raters, and master draft team dominating value based shark apps, and all this other great stuff, but at the end of the day, if you're using your first couple of draft picks, you're not much of a hawk at all, are you? How much dominance are you asserting over your league when you started on equal footing? That's not a hawk. That's barely a shark, at best, under the right circumstances, on the right day of the week.

You want to really show the guys in your league who's boss? Throw away your first round pick. Seriously. Toss it. When you're sitting around the table and your pick comes up and everyone looks at you, just politely say "pass." Do the same thing in the second round. Let them laugh. That's just a sign of their insecurity. The quiet ones are the ones who understand, at that very moment, that they aren't dealing with just any ordinary fantasy magic football guy. This is a real life hawk, and they're sitting across the table from them, and the one thing that is going through their mind is what they should be putting in the Memo field of the $50 check they are writing to you, because this fantasy season has already ended for them.

This is it. The 2010 All-Value All-Otis Team -- start picking these guys in, like, I dunno, the 3rd, maybe 4th rounds, and then beat your entire league, and then have everyone fully appreciate who the real hawk in the room is. You'll probably be disinvited from the league in 2011, but screw those guys, they sucked anyway.
Coach has had the interns hard at work here all summer crunching the numbers, and this year's crop is even better than the last. Let's sharpen the claws and have at it...

QB

Sam Bradford

Sam Bradford is a terrorizing robot built in the future and sent back in time to absolutely dominate professional football. We featured him last year, and it was no surprise to anyone up in The Nest when he pulled out the Offensive ROY award. In a couple years he'll be what Peyton Manning has been to the QB position for so many years. You'll just expect him to be drafted in the top 3 or so spots and you'll feel like you can't remember a time when it wasn't like that. Sam Bradford becomes a part of you forever.

Most folks out there rank him somewhere in the teens for this season. That's a nice try, but not quite right, because he'll finish a top-10 QB this year. You don't take a super talent like this, pair him up with Josh McDaniels, and not get magic. It's like the giant killer football robot from the future is taking direction from Stephen Hawking, and I don't care that he doesn't have tons of great passing targets, because Sam Bradford could throw for 300 and 3 to a field of Mr. Potato Head, a cocker spaniel, and a bag of beef jerky.

Come week 8 the guppies will all be sucking up to the Bradford owners and making all sorts of ludicrous trade offers in their zealots hyper super IXXIM leagues, and the Bradford owners will be on cruise control to the fantasy playoffs.

Go ahead and try. Try prying Sam Bradford from my cold, dead hands.

RB

Montario Hardesty

Remember when Willis McGahee came into the league and everyone was all "oh man he's so injured and toast, I ain't touching him," and then the guy actually ended up being really good? And then the same sort of thing happened with this guy Frank Gore and he ended up being one of the best running backs in football, period? Well sweet bejeezus, here we are again. It's like Zeus himself reached down from the sky and poured sweet godly nectar right into my beak. It's that easy. If I've learned anything through all my years of shark killing, it's that the super talent shines through eventually. Hardesty is a ridiculously naturally gifted running back. It's like a bunch of geneticists sat around in a lab 20 years ago and pieced together the perfect running back from scratch, and out popped baby Montario.

"But Otis, that big Hillis guy is so good." :yawn: It's 2011 now, gang. Not 2010. Stop living in the past. And in 2011, things are different, and Hardesty is the starting running back for the Browns by week 5, and he puts up gaudy numbers for the rest of the year, and then in 2012 we're all sitting around this time of year talking about how he's a top 5 pick in 2012 drafts.

Cedric Benson

I love it when a guy is all but guaranteed 300 carries and his ADP slips into the 50s. Warren Buffet had a saying that went along the lines of "the way I become rich was when I found money lying around, I picked it up." Cedric Benson is a big fat 50-spot sitting in your driveway, and you're on your way into the house, and all you need to do is reach down and pick him up.

"But Coach, he's got legal troubles!!?" Listen, I LOVE Cedric Benson's legal troubles. We're not buddies. He's not my pal. And the fact that he's got these issues has got people scampering away from him, and that's why the hawks are scooping him up nearly for free. You don't win your fantasy league in weeks 1 and 2, gang. But you do over the course of the rest of the season.

WR

Desean Jackson

This is mini-value, but still, if I knew I could pick the best wide receiver in fantasy in the slot where the 8th wide receiver gets drafted, I'd do that. And you can do that too. Because Michael Vick is going to go bananas this year. When you see him you'll have that Chariots of Fire theme playing over and over in your mind and everything will launch into slow motion and your dead grandmother will be sitting in a meadow with a big smile eating grapes on a cool breezy day. And there's Vick firing missiles all over the field, and most of them are aimed dead at Desean's hands, and when we see highlight after highlight of 70-yard TD catches, we'll all be sitting around sipping bourbon and contemplating how awesome we are for drafting Desean Jackson. This is easy math, folks. You don't need a degree in fantasytology or a mod account to see the writing on the wall. Trade down, let your shark buddy have Andre Johnson, and profit to the tune of 1300+ yards, double-digit touchdowns, and good clean I toldya so fun.

Greg Little

We're not usually keen on rookie WRs, but Greg Little has us licking our chops. I don't care how good or bad you think Colt McCoy is, his name is Colt, and he's still probably a lot better than you think he is. Little steps into a situation where he'll take the WR1 slot right off the bat, and he'll do what Anquan Boldin did some years ago when there were just a bunch of nobodies at QB and WR in Arizona and all of the sudden this guy catches 217 yards in his first game and the fantasy nerds are all going bananas and the fellas over at The Huddle are beside themselves trying to determine his fair value. Luckily we have the clear views from up here in the sky, and we're cruising, and we're looking down, and we're seeing things before they're even happening, and we're all thinking "man, I'd sure like to take that guy since he's the closest thing we've seen to Anquan Boldin since Anquan Boldin." And so that's what we do. So when it's getting late in the draft and the sharks in the room are all laughing because you haven't filled up your WR slots yet, and then you take Greg Little, and they think they're clever when they crack "too little, too late," you can just kick back and smile, and in your head you'll already be writing out the eat crow e-mail to the league. Suck it, swimmers!

TE

Lance Kendricks

One of the guys on Voltron, I think the one driving the blue cat, was named Lance. Lance Armstrong overcame all sorts of adversity to be the awesomest bicycle rider around. Neil Armstrong walked on the moon. Lance Kendricks is, like all of these guys, pretty much totally awesome.

Last year Sam Bradford loved throwing to Hoomanommaummagumma, because the best WR on the team was injured. That sort of thing will happen again this year, except Sam Bradford will throw laser, terminator-guided leather balls with silky smooth delivery into the end zone, and Kendricks will be on the receiving end. He'll do lots of damage in the red zone and quickly become Dallas Clark to Sam's Peyton. Let the sharks fight over Finley and the rest. Draft the more important players early in your draft, plug Kendricks into the TE slot at the end, and then call and make reservations to take your girlfriend out to a fancy dinner with your league prize money.

K

Nick Folk (though it doesn't matter)

We told you last year that real hawks don't care about kickers. It's not worth the energy to investigate, because it doesn't matter, and if you want to gamble, just drive down to Atlantic City and plunk yourself down at the blackjack table. But if you want sort of a surprise, try Nick Folk. The Jets are going to move the ball fairly effectively between the 20s, but they'll be stalling out lots before the red zone, and Nick Folk will just be banging in field goals all day long. You'll be outside doing yard work and peeking in the window and, sonofagun, would you look at that, there's Nick Folk doing his thing again. He's just kicking and kicking and you are sitting there swearing that you're watching the Rockettes, except there's just one, and it's a man dressed in green.

That's it for this year. Good luck to the sharks, and see you in the skies, my fine feathered friends who've no use for luck.

-Coach

Note: stay tuned below for breaking HawkAlerts through the rest of the pre-season and all season long...

 
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I like the Kendricks call...which concerns me. I suppose he could be this year's Matt Forte of the Otis Value Team.

 
I'm ####ed. Bradford, Benson and Little? Did you have to curse all three!? Oh well, that early pick should help my rebuild.

 
So there's no real knock on Hillis other than what he did was in 2010? Why are we supposed to discount that? Last I checked Montario was still unable to not get hurt.

 
IIRC, last year's post had at least four players at each position. I like the post, but a little disappointed in the quantity of players named.

 
This makes me regret my decision to not keep Sam Bradford. I guess I'll be showing everyone that a real hawk can not keep a guy, then draft him anyway, and still reap the rewards.

 
IIRC, last year's post had at least four players at each position. I like the post, but a little disappointed in the quantity of players named.
Busy fixing up the house. Priorities.Pretty soon, gonna have to start charging a subscription fee for the baby hawks.
 
Been waiting almost a year for this again! Glad we can once again see which Browns RB to avoid:

Hardesty is already injured. Again. He very well could be good this year, but there are a ton of other guys around his ADP who I would rather have, in no particular order:

BRANDON JACOBS (about a round earlier ADP - good lord does this guy scream value this year)

Tim Hightower

Bernard Scott

Delone Carter

Ben Tate - of the two rookie RBs from last year who looked promising but got injured and are now behind a 2010 breakout star...I'd prefer Tate. I think neither gets a shot unless there's an injury, and Tate is in a helluva lot better place if that happens

 
Mike WilliamsNo, I'm not even going to bother to specify which one I'm talking about, because if you followed my instructions at the beginning of this thread, only hawks are reading this, and you already know. Let the sharks waste their time with a rookie WR who'll have Josh Freeman hucking knuckleballs at him all season.
:lmao: :lmao:
 
The call on Mike Williams will forever go down in folklore....

I'm not even referring to your call on Big Mike... But the diarrhea you attempted to splatter on Tampa Mike's face.

Man, did he ever stuff a cork in your cornhole.

 
Otis might not have learned much about fantasy football, but he's at least learned not to make any promises or call anyone out by name when he makes his annual "Dead Wrong In Public" post. Still more amusing to read than most.

 
Otis might not have learned much about fantasy football, but he's at least learned not to make any promises or call anyone out by name when he makes his annual "Dead Wrong In Public" post. Still more amusing to read than most.
Oh hey Calbear. Has Kevan Barlow taken Frank Gore's starting spot yet?
 
I genuinely view most of the people on this list as OVERvalued. :shrug:
I agree. I look at the annual hawk post for players that would be solid, but are overvalued by the vast majority of owners so they're being drafted where only if they hit their ceiling would they pay off.Move along, nothing to see here... zero value here folks.
 
Those all seem like fairly popular "sleeper" picks. Nothing really shocking here. I expected more from The Nest.

 
'Otis said:
Coach has had the interns hard at work here all summer crunching the numbers, and this year's crop is even better than the last. Let's sharpen the claws and have at it...



QB

Sam Bradford

Sam Bradford is a terrorizing robot built in the future and sent back in time to absolutely dominate professional football. We featured him last year, and it was no surprise to anyone up in The Nest when he pulled out the Offensive ROY award. In a couple years he'll be what Peyton Manning has been to the QB position for so many years. You'll just expect him to be drafted in the top 3 or so spots and you'll feel like you can't remember a time when it wasn't like that. Sam Bradford becomes a part of you forever.

Most folks out there rank him somewhere in the teens for this season. That's a nice try, but not quite right, because he'll finish a top-10 QB this year. You don't take a super talent like this, pair him up with Josh McDaniels, and not get magic. It's like the giant killer football robot from the future is taking direction from Stephen Hawking, and I don't care that he doesn't have tons of great passing targets, because Sam Bradford could throw for 300 and 3 to a field of Mr. Potato Head, a cocker spaniel, and a bag of beef jerky.

Come week 8 the guppies will all be sucking up to the Bradford owners and making all sorts of ludicrous trade offers in their zealots hyper super IXXIM leagues, and the Bradford owners will be on cruise control to the fantasy playoffs.

Go ahead and try. Try prying Sam Bradford from my cold, dead hands.
I'm fascinated by the way Josh McDaniels has become some miracle worker.1) The Pats offense was great before he was there

2) The Pats offense has been great since he left

3) In 2 years in Denver his offense ranked 15th and 13th in yards gained, and 20th and 19th in points scored

4) In 2009 the Broncos were 9th in in pass attempts, but just 13th in yards and 16th in TDs (inefficient)

5) In 2010 the Broncos were 7th in attempts, 7th in yards, 15th in TDs

Sure, Brandon Lloyd credits him with turning his career around, that's awesome. You want to argue McDaniels is a good offensive mind? Sure, I'll buy that. But the collective fantasy community seems to have decided McDaniels going to St. Louis is some missing keystone to offensive greatness. I don't see what McDaniels has done that would convince anyone of that.

Also, Bradford threw the ball 590 times last year. McDaniels isn't Mike Martz and he's not the head coach, even if Bradford plays all 16 games again, his pass attempts are going lower, perhaps significantly. On top of all that, as Chase Stuart so eloquently analyzed, outside of the VOLUME of attempts, Bradford's rookie season was pretty pedestrian, if not below average -- yet people are somehow confusing 590 attempts + 16 games played with "future superstar."

I'm willing to roll with Bradford having great potential, and wouldn't steer clear of him per se, but I've seen a lot of leagues where people think they're being sneaky by grabbing him 11th or 12th at QB and snickering as though they've locked up a breakout star. No thanks.

RB

Montario Hardesty

Remember when Willis McGahee came into the league and everyone was all "oh man he's so injured and toast, I ain't touching him," and then the guy actually ended up being really good? And then the same sort of thing happened with this guy Frank Gore and he ended up being one of the best running backs in football, period? Well sweet bejeezus, here we are again. It's like Zeus himself reached down from the sky and poured sweet godly nectar right into my beak. It's that easy. If I've learned anything through all my years of shark killing, it's that the super talent shines through eventually. Hardesty is a ridiculously naturally gifted running back. It's like a bunch of geneticists sat around in a lab 20 years ago and pieced together the perfect running back from scratch, and out popped baby Montario.

"But Otis, that big Hillis guy is so good." :yawn: It's 2011 now, gang. Not 2010. Stop living in the past. And in 2011, things are different, and Hardesty is the starting running back for the Browns by week 5, and he puts up gaudy numbers for the rest of the year, and then in 2012 we're all sitting around this time of year talking about how he's a top 5 pick in 2012 drafts.
Let's start with the obvious. Gore and McGahee got hurt in college which impacted their draft day perceptions. They were on the road to recovery when the teams selected them. Hardesty, already perceived as an oft injured got, tore his ACL last summer! So he's much further behind in his road to recovery than either McGahee or Gore were. As if that weren't enough, Hardesty attempted to come back and yet again missed 2+ weeks of camp with, you guessed it, a sore knee. On top of that, he's been outplayed in camp (since he return on Monday) by Brandon Jackson. :X

And last but not least, Hillis is being CRIMINALLY undervalued. But I already articulated my thoughts on that in the Player Spotlight, so folks can go read that if they want to understand my views further.

Cedric Benson

I love it when a guy is all but guaranteed 300 carries and his ADP slips into the 50s. Warren Buffet had a saying that went along the lines of "the way I become rich was when I found money lying around, I picked it up." Cedric Benson is a big fat 50-spot sitting in your driveway, and you're on your way into the house, and all you need to do is reach down and pick him up.

"But Coach, he's got legal troubles!!?" Listen, I LOVE Cedric Benson's legal troubles. We're not buddies. He's not my pal. And the fact that he's got these issues has got people scampering away from him, and that's why the hawks are scooping him up nearly for free. You don't win your fantasy league in weeks 1 and 2, gang. But you do over the course of the rest of the season.
Benson isn't a special player. Ironic that you dismiss Peyton Hillis, whose underlying skills are materially more impressive than Benson, and then pretend like talent isn't a factor with Ced. Now THAT SAID, he finished RB16 in each of the last two years and with Bernard Scott being banged up AGAIN, Benson does look like a guy that will get 300+ carries if he stays healthy. He's a compiler, but that's not all bad in fantasy. :thumbup:
WR

Desean Jackson

This is mini-value, but still, if I knew I could pick the best wide receiver in fantasy in the slot where the 8th wide receiver gets drafted, I'd do that. And you can do that too. Because Michael Vick is going to go bananas this year. When you see him you'll have that Chariots of Fire theme playing over and over in your mind and everything will launch into slow motion and your dead grandmother will be sitting in a meadow with a big smile eating grapes on a cool breezy day. And there's Vick firing missiles all over the field, and most of them are aimed dead at Desean's hands, and when we see highlight after highlight of 70-yard TD catches, we'll all be sitting around sipping bourbon and contemplating how awesome we are for drafting Desean Jackson. This is easy math, folks. You don't need a degree in fantasytology or a mod account to see the writing on the wall. Trade down, let your shark buddy have Andre Johnson, and profit to the tune of 1300+ yards, double-digit touchdowns, and good clean I toldya so fun.
LOVE DeSean, the player. Want my Eagles to lock him up long-term ASAP. But let's be realistic. Hasn't played 16 games. Was scared after he came back last year (I saw every snap, including half of them live), and is not a complete receiver like some of the other elite guys. He's finished 29th, 4th and 14th in his three years. So NO ONE should be surprised if he finishes in the Top 5, but it's hardly a case of his being undervalued at his current ADP. It's a fair, risk adjusted ranking.

Greg Little

We're not usually keen on rookie WRs, but Greg Little has us licking our chops. I don't care how good or bad you think Colt McCoy is, his name is Colt, and he's still probably a lot better than you think he is. Little steps into a situation where he'll take the WR1 slot right off the bat, and he'll do what Anquan Boldin did some years ago when there were just a bunch of nobodies at QB and WR in Arizona and all of the sudden this guy catches 217 yards in his first game and the fantasy nerds are all going bananas and the fellas over at The Huddle are beside themselves trying to determine his fair value. Luckily we have the clear views from up here in the sky, and we're cruising, and we're looking down, and we're seeing things before they're even happening, and we're all thinking "man, I'd sure like to take that guy since he's the closest thing we've seen to Anquan Boldin since Anquan Boldin." And so that's what we do. So when it's getting late in the draft and the sharks in the room are all laughing because you haven't filled up your WR slots yet, and then you take Greg Little, and they think they're clever when they crack "too little, too late," you can just kick back and smile, and in your head you'll already be writing out the eat crow e-mail to the league. Suck it, swimmers!
From a dynasty perspective, I love Little. I agree with you that he's got elite talent, and should be the Browns best WR, soon. But your contention that he'll "take the WR1 slot right off the bat" simply isn't true, which makes the Boldin comparison off. Boldin was TEARING IT UP in camp, and it was simply a case of people not believing the hype (they should have). Little has done the opposite. The Brownies would LOVE for him to assert himself as the #1 (think Mike Williams in Tampa last year), but he hasn't. He's missed time with injuries, and then has been an absolute drop machine in the last 10 days of practice. I can see him rounding into shape in the second half, but I don't see him as a guy that starts right away and has fantasy relevance. Luckily for most fantasy owners, they have another week or two of observation before their drafts.
TE

Lance Kendricks

One of the guys on Voltron, I think the one driving the blue cat, was named Lance. Lance Armstrong overcame all sorts of adversity to be the awesomest bicycle rider around. Neil Armstrong walked on the moon. Lance Kendricks is, like all of these guys, pretty much totally awesome.

Last year Sam Bradford loved throwing to Hoomanommaummagumma, because the best WR on the team was injured. That sort of thing will happen again this year, except Sam Bradford will throw laser, terminator-guided leather balls with silky smooth delivery into the end zone, and Kendricks will be on the receiving end. He'll do lots of damage in the red zone and quickly become Dallas Clark to Sam's Peyton. Let the sharks fight over Finley and the rest. Draft the more important players early in your draft, plug Kendricks into the TE slot at the end, and then call and make reservations to take your girlfriend out to a fancy dinner with your league prize money.
Putting aside the obvious fact that rookie TEs, even the ones who end up being elite players in this league, rarely have fantasy relevance. Let's also remember that we're looking at the deepest fantasy TE environment ever. Over the last 10 years, 8 TEs (on average) have grabbed 50+ receptions. This year there are 22 of them projected to achieve that goal. It would take the combination of a historically unheard of year out of a rookie TE PLUS major, MAJOR disappointments from a dozen other TEs for Kendricks to be justified as your TE1 on draft day.
That's it for this year. Good luck to the sharks, and see you in the skies, my fine feathered friends who've no use for luck.

-Coach
Now in all seriousness, :thumbup: to you for a fun, well-written read. I may not agree with all of your talking points, but I have to give you props for the way you went about your business.
 

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