2011 draft versus 2012 draft (1 Viewer)

[Schirmdog]

Compare what you think of this year's draft class versus the expected class next year.

I always look at the current draft and try to determine the value of the draft picks versus the next year. This way I can determine whether or not to try to move up a year or back a year. This may also be dependent on where you lie in the draft. If you are picks 1-3 I can't see moving back a year based on the fact that the team you trade with may be better than expected. If you are 4-8 or 9-12 what would you prefer and why?

Here is a beginning list of the top expected talents for 2012 as a start

QB

Luck - UC-may not declare

Barkley - UC-may not declare

RB

Richardson - UC-may not declare (unlikely)

WR

Blackmon - UC-may not declare (unlikely next year)

Floyd

 

[EBF]

Next year's class is certainly better at QB and RB. WR looks like a push.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Like next years class better already and the unknowns havent even come out of the woodwork yet.

 

[Schirmdog]

I agree on QB. Luck looks elite and Barkley appears very good but I have not watched him very much at all. I am more of an SEC guy. I play in a 2 qb league so this year looks good with 3-4 prospects but no one elite versus next year.

The WRs look really good as well. There is also the Jeffrey kid from South Carolina in addition to the ones named above.

What other RBs look good for 2012?

This year is deep but only 3 elite prospects versus 5-6 next year. (Although Locker seemed elite last year so things can change)

 

[cobalt_27]

Next year's class is certainly better at QB and RB. WR looks like a push.

Not a push at WR at all. With Green and Jones, the top end of this year's draft definitely outpaces what you get next year.Agree on QB/RB, though. After Ingram, there really isn't a bona fide stud in the making this year. And, the QB group this year is dreadful.

 

[Schirmdog]

Alshon Jeffery and Justin Blackmon may come out next year and both were all americans this year with Blackmon winning the Biletnikoff this year. I think they offset Green and Jones. Also, Green and Jones will most likely be a top three pick this year and I don't think I woudl ever trade a top three pick in the current year for a first next. Maybe two firsts if one was from a bad team.

For RB LaMichael James should also come out (also all american). I was not impressed from the National Chanpionship game

 

[ffchamp1]

I agree on QB. Luck looks elite and Barkley appears very good but I have not watched him very much at all. I am more of an SEC guy. I play in a 2 qb league so this year looks good with 3-4 prospects but no one elite versus next year. The WRs look really good as well. There is also the Jeffrey kid from South Carolina in addition to the ones named above.What other RBs look good for 2012? This year is deep but only 3 elite prospects versus 5-6 next year. (Although Locker seemed elite last year so things can change)

The HC change at Stanford will affect Luck just enough that Barkley catches him as the consensus #1As a Stanford fan and a SC local, I felt Luck made a terrible NFL choice to stay. I don't think he suffers a Leinart/Locker drop, I just think that much of Barkley.

 

[EBF]

I agree on QB. Luck looks elite and Barkley appears very good but I have not watched him very much at all. I am more of an SEC guy. I play in a 2 qb league so this year looks good with 3-4 prospects but no one elite versus next year. The WRs look really good as well. There is also the Jeffrey kid from South Carolina in addition to the ones named above.What other RBs look good for 2012? This year is deep but only 3 elite prospects versus 5-6 next year. (Although Locker seemed elite last year so things can change)

The HC change at Stanford will affect Luck just enough that Barkley catches him as the consensus #1As a Stanford fan and a SC local, I felt Luck made a terrible NFL choice to stay. I don't think he suffers a Leinart/Locker drop, I just think that much of Barkley.

I think it's unlikely. I like Barkley more than any of the 2011 QBs, but he hasn't shown Luck's mental intangibles, accuracy, or consistency. Luck is everything that Barkley can only aspire to become. He's also quite a bit bigger, though Barkley might have a stronger arm.

 

[EBF]

Next year's class is certainly better at QB and RB. WR looks like a push.

Not a push at WR at all. With Green and Jones, the top end of this year's draft definitely outpaces what you get next year.

I think that's pretty questionable with Blackmon and Jeffery in the fold. Nevermind whoever else might emerge between now and April 2012.

 

[cobalt_27]

Next year's class is certainly better at QB and RB. WR looks like a push.

Not a push at WR at all. With Green and Jones, the top end of this year's draft definitely outpaces what you get next year.

I think that's pretty questionable with Blackmon and Jeffery in the fold. Nevermind whoever else might emerge between now and April 2012.

Not even in the same zip code as Green/Julio.

 

[gandalas]

Don't forget Ohio State WR DeVier Posey - I had seen him as a top-10 WR on early watch lists if he had come out this season...with another year of seasoning, he will hopefully be the same next year as well.

I suppose QB Terelle Pryor could pull a Cam Newton-type season out of his butt next season and be ranked highly, although I doubt it, even as a homer.

 

[Schirmdog]

There is also Landry Jones from Oklahoma. His completion percent went from 58.1% to 65.6%. Where would he rank in QBs versus this year?

 

[Sabertooth]

Next year's class is certainly better at QB and RB. WR looks like a push.

I heard this all the time last year. THIS year was supposed to be the bumper crop. What happened?

 

[fruity pebbles]

Next year's class is certainly better at QB and RB. WR looks like a push.

I heard this all the time last year. THIS year was supposed to be the bumper crop. What happened?

3 key guys went back to school?

 

[shader]

I think this year's RB class is being undersold bigtime.

 

[RustyFA2]

EVERY year people talk about how next year's rookie crop is going to be and that this year's is not very strong. EVERY year the same discussion happens. I buy in and trade back only to hear the same thing each year. Occassionally there is an outstanding year but more often than not it is because 4-5 guys that no one knew about when they were talking up a year emerge.

I think QB will be better next year. I think WR will be a push and I do not know about RB. This year I think there are 3 1st round QBs, 2 RBs, 1 TE, and 4 WRs.

 

[Schirmdog]

Next year's class is certainly better at QB and RB. WR looks like a push.

I heard this all the time last year. THIS year was supposed to be the bumper crop. What happened?

That is a good argument to stay with this year.QB At this time last year Locker was projected to compete with Luck as Elite QB prospects and you had Ryan Mallet as a top prospect as well. Locker has looked poor, Mallet did not seem to improve very much and Luck went back to school. Luck and Barkley could both stay in school next year or end up like Locker.

RB You also had a Sophamore RB in Ingram win the Heisman and would be eligible this year as well as people were excited about Murray, Ryan Williams and a few others for this year. Ingram did not repeat his Heisman performance and the others did not live up to the expectations either. Richardson could go the same way as Ingram.

WR There was also Floyd and Blackmon that were considered in the "big four" for this year and both went back to school. Floyd has had injury issues as well.

If you have a top three pick this year I can't see trading them straight up but what about if you have two of the last picks in the first round? (9/10 in 10 team league or 11/12 in a 12 team league) Do you trade those? What about mid round picks like 6-9? What about 4/5 if you are going to miss out on Ingram/Green/Jones? Is there someone that you like at that point that you value more than trying to get a comaparable pick next year (considering the risk of the pick or draft not being as good next year)

 

[Schirmdog]

EVERY year people talk about how next year's rookie crop is going to be and that this year's is not very strong. EVERY year the same discussion happens. I buy in and trade back only to hear the same thing each year. Occassionally there is an outstanding year but more often than not it is because 4-5 guys that no one knew about when they were talking up a year emerge. I think QB will be better next year. I think WR will be a push and I do not know about RB. This year I think there are 3 1st round QBs, 2 RBs, 1 TE, and 4 WRs.

In 2008 I had the number 1 pick and 3 other first round picks. I traded my 2009 first to get more picks in 2008 because I thought 2009 would not be nearly as good as 2008. This was a case where I traded up. (plus I had just taken over a super poor team hence the #1 pick) I targeted this year and at one time had 4 2011 first round picks when the season started. Just some info on the moves I have made in relation to years drafts.2008 was special and 2009 was good. I think 2010 is above average but 2011 looks like another very good year.

 

[DansRams]

I think this year's RB class is being undersold bigtime.

This

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Next year's class is certainly better at QB and RB. WR looks like a push.

I heard this all the time last year. THIS year was supposed to be the bumper crop. What happened?

That is a good argument to stay with this year.QB At this time last year Locker was projected to compete with Luck as Elite QB prospects and you had Ryan Mallet as a top prospect as well. Locker has looked poor, Mallet did not seem to improve very much and Luck went back to school. Luck and Barkley could both stay in school next year or end up like Locker.

RB You also had a Sophamore RB in Ingram win the Heisman and would be eligible this year as well as people were excited about Murray, Ryan Williams and a few others for this year. Ingram did not repeat his Heisman performance and the others did not live up to the expectations either. Richardson could go the same way as Ingram.

WR There was also Floyd and Blackmon that were considered in the "big four" for this year and both went back to school. Floyd has had injury issues as well.

If you have a top three pick this year I can't see trading them straight up but what about if you have two of the last picks in the first round? (9/10 in 10 team league or 11/12 in a 12 team league) Do you trade those? What about mid round picks like 6-9? What about 4/5 if you are going to miss out on Ingram/Green/Jones? Is there someone that you like at that point that you value more than trying to get a comaparable pick next year (considering the risk of the pick or draft not being as good next year)

Your post is inconsistent. You refer to what Locker and Ingram's status was last year at this time, but then mention Blackmon as part of the "big four". The big 4 of WR's going into this year was Green, Jones, Floyd and Baldwin in some order. Nobody had Blackmon on their radar as that type of prospect.

The departures of Blackmon, Floyd and Luck from this years draft class weakens it no doubt, but there is still plenty of talent on the board. There will be plenty of talent on board next year as well, as there is most years.

 

[Schirmdog]

Your post is inconsistent. You refer to what Locker and Ingram's status was last year at this time, but then mention Blackmon as part of the "big four". The big 4 of WR's going into this year was Green, Jones, Floyd and Baldwin in some order. Nobody had Blackmon on their radar as that type of prospect.

The departures of Blackmon, Floyd and Luck from this years draft class weakens it no doubt, but there is still plenty of talent on the board. There will be plenty of talent on board next year as well, as there is most years.

I may have them confused then. Baldwin was not as dominant as thought last year but is still a great talent.

My purpose of the topic is to discuss compare this year versus next. It gives some perspective on what your draft pick is worth versus next year. If you think the next year will be significantly better then maybe you trade back. If they are close then maybe stay put.

To me the benefit of staying put is the player will benefit your team quicker. RBs typically will contribute in year 1, be good in year 2 and should hit their top potential late year 2 and year 3. WRs are a year behind that and qbs maybe 2 years behind rbs. There are the exceptions but that is what I have seen.

To move into the next year there have to be good reasons. A slew of elite talent is one. This year there are three elite talents and there are others that may become elite once they hit the field. This year I am looking at 2012 prospects Luck, Richardson, Blackmon and Jeffrey being Elite and very little chance of failing such as Locker. I see Barkley, Landry Jones and Malcom Floyd as Locker/Bradford types. They can end up being very good such as Bradford or drop like Locker. PLUS there will be the current unknowns next year that will impress over the season.

 

[EBF]

Next year's class is certainly better at QB and RB. WR looks like a push.

I heard this all the time last year. THIS year was supposed to be the bumper crop. What happened?

There was never any RB depth in this group besides Ingram. A year back I didn't see anyone else who looked like a safe bet for the first round. That hasn't really changed. I still think this RB class is Ingram and then a whole bunch of mediocrities. A couple of those other guys might become nice FF players in the right situation, but in terms of surefire franchise RBs there's not much to get excited about this year. I think it's accurate to say that this is a weak RB crop. QB took a big hit when Locker/Ponder flopped and Luck decided to go back to Stanford. That wiped out three of the top QB prospects. Cam Newton's emergence and (maybe) Blaine Gabbert's decision to enter the draft have helped compensate, but neither of those guys is a can't-miss franchise QB who can really provide a compelling option in the top half of the rookie draft like Bradford last year or Luck next year. This year's QBs all fall into the category of "major gamble" rather than "solid commodity." That's another strike against this draft class.

WR is the one spot where there's some strength. I think Green and Jones are legitimate first round talents. There are a couple other guys who could sneak into the first round and there are several 2nd-4th round types who look like they have strong starting potential. I still don't see how this is better than an average WR class. It's not a disaster like the year when Santonio Holmes was the only first round WR selected, but we're probably not going to see six WRs selected in the first round like the Crabtree class or the Calvin class. It's a middle of the road group. Given what we've already seen from guys like Michael Floyd, Justin Blackmon, and Alshon Jeffery, I'll be surprised if next year's class isn't on par with this one when the dust settles.

I definitely think people exaggerate the talent of future prospects. I also think people overrate current prospects though. The hype for AJ Green is much like the hype for Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, and Calvin Johnson. You can't say that a WR is a "once-a-decade" talent when someone like him comes along almost every year. Green and Jones are good, but Blackmon and Jeffery had better stats than either of them. I'm not convinced that a year from now people won't be saying the same things about one of those guys that they're saying about Green or Jones right now. That's just the way the draft works. When you evaluate a player in the context of his draft class and not in the context of the entire pool of NFL talent, it's easy to exaggerate his talent.

None of this means that some classes aren't more talented than others and that it's sometimes accurate to say that a future class will be stronger than a current one or vice versa. I can pretty safely say that I'd strongly consider Luck at QB1, Richardson at RB1, and Blackmon at WR1 if they happened to be available for the 2011 NFL draft. If the top players from next year's class already look as good or better than the top players from this year's class then I have a hard time not thinking next year's will be better, at least at the top. I happen to think that this is a really bad year to have a mid-first round rookie pick like 1.05 or 1.06.

 

[Kimbo Slice]

.

 

[Schirmdog]

Here is the current dynasty rookie poll results for the 2011 rookies. I have added the last three based on the pick 10 current poll results.

1. Mark Ingram

2. AJ Green

3. Julio Jones

4. Mikel Leshoure

5. Ryan Williams

6. Jonathan Baldwin

7. Dion Lewis

8. Daniel Thomas

9. DeMarco Murray

10. Torrey Smith

11. Titus Young

12. Cam Newton

Here is a quick top 12 for next year. All open for discussion add others or disparage these as you see fit

1. Trent Richardson, RB - as good if not better than Ingram

2. LaMichael James, RB

3. Alshon Jeffrey, WR - ESPN all American this year

4. justin Blackmon, WR - ESPN all American this year + Biletnikoff award winner

5. Andrew Luck, QB - next Peyton?

6. Knile Davis, RB

7. Chris Polk, RB

8. Matt Barkley, QB

9. Ryan Broyles, WR

10. Ed Wesley, RB - TCU

11. Cyrus Gray, RB Texas A&M

12 Jeff Demps, RB/WR - Florida

 

[Bojang0301]

This is one of the deepest RB classes I have seen in awhile. Perhaps it is thin at the very top but I have a feeling a lot of good backs will be taken throughout. I highly doubt next year will match this years RB depth.

 

[Schirmdog]

From another thread "At first glance some names jump out at you (luck, blackmon, etc.), but how deep is the 2012 class? Should I stockpile draft picks for 2012 by trading away some 2011 rookie drafts?"

I think that if you have a top 5 pick this year you keep your pick. 7-12 trade for a 2012 next year. I would say keep 2nd rounders this year as the class is very deep and there is too much unknown about next year other than most likely 6 elite in next year's class. (8 if you play in 2 qb leagues)

 

[BigTex]

From another thread "At first glance some names jump out at you (luck, blackmon, etc.), but how deep is the 2012 class? Should I stockpile draft picks for 2012 by trading away some 2011 rookie drafts?"I think that if you have a top 5 pick this year you keep your pick. 7-12 trade for a 2012 next year. I would say keep 2nd rounders this year as the class is very deep and there is too much unknown about next year other than most likely 6 elite in next year's class. (8 if you play in 2 qb leagues)

Post #16 in this same thread:

EVERY year people talk about how next year's rookie crop is going to be and that this year's is not very strong. EVERY year the same discussion happens. I buy in and trade back only to hear the same thing each year. Occassionally there is an outstanding year but more often than not it is because 4-5 guys that no one knew about when they were talking up a year emerge. I think QB will be better next year. I think WR will be a push and I do not know about RB. This year I think there are 3 1st round QBs, 2 RBs, 1 TE, and 4 WRs.

 

[Cipherchris]

So do you think I should stockpile on 2012 draft picks by trading away some 2011 picks?

 

[coolnerd]

So do you think I should stockpile on 2012 draft picks by trading away some 2011 picks?

In my mind 2012 looks no different than most classes...A handful of obvious talents with a bunch of guys you need to know what you looking at. In short, next year it will be the same as this year, a couple guys who don't hold up to analysis (Floyd, Broyles in 2011), a couple of guys who don't declare (Luck and Baldwin in 2011), guys who are not as good as people claim (L. James and D. Lewis in 2011) and injury/ production isues. Yes, there will guys not mentioned anywhere who will develop, but with only a couple of exceptions, the yearly positive surprises don't outweigh the negative "surprises." In short, you will be hoping that 2012 is different than most years. My advice is to trade out of a draft when you get good value that seems like it will help your team.

 

[Schirmdog]

How do we feel about this class now after the combine? The RBs were unexpectantly slower than I thought they would be. I was surprised at Cam's performance but Locker and Ponder looked pretty good. Julio blew up, Green looked as advertised but Titus Young was pretty slow in comparison to Desean (who eveyone compares him to).

 

[coolnerd]

How do we feel about this class now after the combine? The RBs were unexpectantly slower than I thought they would be. I was surprised at Cam's performance but Locker and Ponder looked pretty good. Julio blew up, Green looked as advertised but Titus Young was pretty slow in comparison to Desean (who eveyone compares him to).

Nothing changed for me. The top 3 or 4 Rbs in this draft weren't speed guys, so and once they got into drills where it looked more like football for the most part they looked better than the guys who just ran fast. Jones wasn't that far from Green to start with and Young was either DeSean Lite, and being slow less explosive kinda seems right. For me, past the top handful of players just really need to have a good feel for the guy and for the situation he is drafted into.

 

[Schirmdog]

Another reason why I and others in my league will trade back is that with 2 or more 1st rounders you can sometimes pull away a proven elite player from another owner, especially one that might be rebuilding. If you are in competition for the playoffs and can build a stash of picks then you can get that elite player or at least plug holes if injuries strike. I had 4 first rounders going into 2010 and had 4 starters go down with injury. I was able to trade picks for players to remain in competition this past season. Without those picks I was done. Of course trading back is a lot easier if the perception that the next draft is equal to or less than the current year.

 

[Schirmdog]

With the agreement on the rookie pay scale how do you feel this affects next year's draft? I don't think it affects the running backs but QBs and WRs may deceide to go ahead and stay another year. The other effect it may have is it may keep limit the elite prospects in any one year as not many will want to risk being the second or third QB or WR taken as it could drop their pay significantly versus staying in school one more year.

Example

Luck declares and is #1 so Matt Barkley stays another year to try to become the #1 in 2013.

 

[Gottabesweet]

bump

 

[eakfootball]

Remember what people were saying about Jon Baldwin this time last year?

 

[King of the Jungle]

With the agreement on the rookie pay scale how do you feel this affects next year's draft? I don't think it affects the running backs but QBs and WRs may deceide to go ahead and stay another year. The other effect it may have is it may keep limit the elite prospects in any one year as not many will want to risk being the second or third QB or WR taken as it could drop their pay significantly versus staying in school one more year.ExampleLuck declares and is #1 so Matt Barkley stays another year to try to become the #1 in 2013.

There is still a lot of money to be had, as well as the risk of injury. I wouldn't expect it to make a significant impact on the amount of players declaring.

 

[Ilov80s]

2011 was a pretty dry draft for fantasy talent. Lots of great talent, but not at the skill positions. 2012 will easily be a much better draft for offensive skill players.