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2011 Free Agency / Player Movement (1 Viewer)

David Dodds

David Dodds

Administrator
As you know, the NFL has locked out the players and both sides are currently letting their lawyers do most of the talking. While we do not believe the lockout will impact games this season, free agency has certainly been affected. Normally, we would be over a month deep into free agency, and you'd be reading about what to expect from players in new places. Obviously, with no player movement, there isn't anyone in a new place, so we really can't tell you what to expect. However, rather than sit around waiting for the lockout to end, we decided to be a little predictive.

Posting this here before we send out to our email list tonight:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11freeagents.php

 
You guys tear into this thing and let us know what you think. As David says, this isn't fact - this is our best prediction based on (admittedly very little) we have to go on right now.

But like we do with everything at Footballguys, we want to be there for you laying out what we think. I tell our guys, when everyone is saying player z is a game time decision on Saturday night, you guys don't want to hear us parrot everyone else and shrug our shoulders. You want a stat projection right then based on what we know. So that's what we do. And it's essentially what we're doing here.

So tear into it and let us know what you think. Thanks.

J

 
Re LeRon McClain -- "FB McKie re-signed so [McClain] possibly brought back as #2 FB?" I think this is backwards. McKie was signed as insurance in case they can't get McClain back. If McClain does not go elsewhere (and he has said he's looking for more ball carrying duties), he'll almost certainly return as the #1 FB. McKie is a journeyman, McClain made the Pro Bowl in both 2008 and 2009.

 
'Couch Potato said:
Re LeRon McClain -- "FB McKie re-signed so [McClain] possibly brought back as #2 FB?" I think this is backwards. McKie was signed as insurance in case they can't get McClain back. If McClain does not go elsewhere (and he has said he's looking for more ball carrying duties), he'll almost certainly return as the #1 FB. McKie is a journeyman, McClain made the Pro Bowl in both 2008 and 2009.
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It may have meant brought back as the #2 HB, since by all accounts MaGahee will be released and like you said McClain wants more carries.
 
Thanks Couch Potato. Keep these coming. And you other guys chime in too. Thanks for your feedback and input on this.

J

 
'Dr. Octopus said:
'Couch Potato said:
Re LeRon McClain -- "FB McKie re-signed so [McClain] possibly brought back as #2 FB?" I think this is backwards. McKie was signed as insurance in case they can't get McClain back. If McClain does not go elsewhere (and he has said he's looking for more ball carrying duties), he'll almost certainly return as the #1 FB. McKie is a journeyman, McClain made the Pro Bowl in both 2008 and 2009.
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It may have meant brought back as the #2 HB, since by all accounts MaGahee will be released and like you said McClain wants more carries.
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Yes, possibly meant that. In any event, comment needs to be made more clear.
 
'Dr. Octopus said:
'Couch Potato said:
Re LeRon McClain -- "FB McKie re-signed so [McClain] possibly brought back as #2 FB?" I think this is backwards. McKie was signed as insurance in case they can't get McClain back. If McClain does not go elsewhere (and he has said he's looking for more ball carrying duties), he'll almost certainly return as the #1 FB. McKie is a journeyman, McClain made the Pro Bowl in both 2008 and 2009.
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It may have meant brought back as the #2 HB, since by all accounts MaGahee will be released and like you said McClain wants more carries.
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I screwed this up as it was written as #2 halfback and I wrongly edited. Good catch
 
Fred Taylor not just likely to be gone from NE but "says he's basically retired". Not official but that's what he's saying this week.

J

 
Carr SF is signed for 2011, not a FA.

Should I be pointing out guys like Beck and Carr who are under contract and not FAs, or are they just listed because you're guessing they'll be cut later? What are the parameters in this regard? I'll hold off on more awaiting clarification.

ETA -- I'm aware of the big names who are under contract and likely let go such as Ocho and McGahee, so I won't post guys like that who have been in the news. It's those minor names I'm unsure what you're looking for.

 
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A couple minor notes regarding a few Redskins players:

- if you want to get predictive, the note for Portis should probably be "gone, but could be back". Portis has said he would love to remain a Redskin, but he still thinks he can be a starter (and wants starter money) so he'll test the waters. The Skins would love to have him back, but only at the right price. If Portis is only getting vet minimum offers on the market (which is possible, if not likely) he'll very likely be back in Washington for that price.

- H.B. Blades was tendered a RFA qualifying offer which strongly suggests the team is going to do what it can to keep him.

- Dockery and Carter should be "gone"s (both were cut and don't fit their respective systems)

 
Kevin Faulk is probably retired, has said he'd only be back with NE. With Woodhead filling his role so well, there's probably not a spot for the 35 year old coming off an ACL.

 
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Most likely alternative landing spot for Hasselbeck if not re-signed by SEA is Tennessee from all I read back in March. Obviously just speculation, but that's what this is all about.

 
Gradkowski as good as gone in OAK. Big Al said as much awhile back, commenting on Grad's injuries and how he [Al] likes continuity.

 
Brian Westbrook s/b on the list as a UFA. He has expressed interest in returning once again to Philly if they'd have him. And with Jerome Harrison likely gone, that's a possibility.

 
Deangelo Williams to Miami:

(RotoWire) The Dolphins have expressed interest in acquiring Williams, the Sun-Sentinel reports.

Analysis: Williams appears equally keen on the Dolphins, noting that Miami is a "place I'd like to live. I hope I'm at the top of their list and they come after me." Perhaps the top prize of all free agent running backs, Williams went on to add that landing in a place with a solid quarterback situation is crucial: "In this league, the running game is all predicated on if you have a quarterback or not. If you don't have a quarterback, they stack the box, and they force you to do what you do best." If, however, the old free agent rules apply to this offseason, Williams could still be tendered by the Panthers.

(TheHuddle) Carolina Panthers impending free-agent RB DeAngelo Williams said he would be interested in signing with the Miami Dolphins this offseason if they pursue him, reports Omar Kelly, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Analysis: Both team and player are tip-toeing around the lockout-imposed wall of silence between them. However, the Dolphins would need to have a pretty strong indication Williams would be bringing his talents to South Beach to eschew a running back in the first round of the upcoming draft.

 
WR Aromashodu CHI not tendered (you didn't say that he was), and not expected back. I mention him only because there was fantasy buzz about him last year and some guys still holding out hope for him, so his exit from CHI might want to be mentioned in the comment section.

 
You might want to add a paragraph in the intro as to what the 3 yr, 4 yr, 5 yr status means with respect to the CBA status and whether guys will in fact be FAs or not. You know and I know, but I'd guess many won't.

ETA -- also ERFAs like Arian Foster, who can't go elsewhere. He's a pretty big deal.

 
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'wiscstlatlmia said:
Deangelo Williams to Miami:

(RotoWire) The Dolphins have expressed interest in acquiring Williams, the Sun-Sentinel reports.

Analysis: Williams appears equally keen on the Dolphins, noting that Miami is a "place I'd like to live. I hope I'm at the top of their list and they come after me." Perhaps the top prize of all free agent running backs, Williams went on to add that landing in a place with a solid quarterback situation is crucial: "In this league, the running game is all predicated on if you have a quarterback or not. If you don't have a quarterback, they stack the box, and they force you to do what you do best." If, however, the old free agent rules apply to this offseason, Williams could still be tendered by the Panthers.
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The link in the OP says he was tendered with a 1st & a 3rd. I didn't realize that... Does that mean that if Free Agency rules are left alone for 2011, that Miami would have to fork over a 1st & 3rd to get Williams?If so, forget it...

 
'Dolfan said:
'wiscstlatlmia said:
Deangelo Williams to Miami:

(RotoWire) The Dolphins have expressed interest in acquiring Williams, the Sun-Sentinel reports.

Analysis: Williams appears equally keen on the Dolphins, noting that Miami is a "place I'd like to live. I hope I'm at the top of their list and they come after me." Perhaps the top prize of all free agent running backs, Williams went on to add that landing in a place with a solid quarterback situation is crucial: "In this league, the running game is all predicated on if you have a quarterback or not. If you don't have a quarterback, they stack the box, and they force you to do what you do best." If, however, the old free agent rules apply to this offseason, Williams could still be tendered by the Panthers.
Click to expand...
The link in the OP says he was tendered with a 1st & a 3rd. I didn't realize that... Does that mean that if Free Agency rules are left alone for 2011, that Miami would have to fork over a 1st & 3rd to get Williams?If so, forget it...
Click to expand...
no, it would most likely mean a trade would be negotiated for something much less than that. There's no requirement that a trade take place for that price, only that a team swooping in to get a FA has to pay that. I think CAR would be happy with a 3rd for him.
 
Other RB FAs you might (or might not, if too minor) want to list. You may want to skip ERFAs but I'll list them anyway in case.

UFA Mike Bell CLE

UFA Ladell Betts NO

RFA Jerome Felton DET

UFA Jackie Battle KC (3 yr guy but not tendered)

UFA Kyle Eckel DEN

UFA Korey Hall GB

RFA Lynell Hamilton NO

RFA Mike Hart IND

ERFA Lex Hilliard MIA

UFA Kareem Huggins TB (could have been ERFA but no tender extended)

ERFA Matt Lawrence BAL

UFA Jerious Norwood ATL.... and s/b listed as likely gone

RFA Jalen Parmele BAL

ERFA Cedric Peerman CIN

ERFA Marcel Reece OAK

ERFA Kory Sheets MIA

UFA Lawrence Vickers CLE

 
'Couch Potato said:
'Dolfan said:
'wiscstlatlmia said:
Deangelo Williams to Miami:

(RotoWire) The Dolphins have expressed interest in acquiring Williams, the Sun-Sentinel reports.

Analysis: Williams appears equally keen on the Dolphins, noting that Miami is a "place I'd like to live. I hope I'm at the top of their list and they come after me." Perhaps the top prize of all free agent running backs, Williams went on to add that landing in a place with a solid quarterback situation is crucial: "In this league, the running game is all predicated on if you have a quarterback or not. If you don't have a quarterback, they stack the box, and they force you to do what you do best." If, however, the old free agent rules apply to this offseason, Williams could still be tendered by the Panthers.
Click to expand...
The link in the OP says he was tendered with a 1st & a 3rd. I didn't realize that... Does that mean that if Free Agency rules are left alone for 2011, that Miami would have to fork over a 1st & 3rd to get Williams?If so, forget it...
Click to expand...
no, it would most likely mean a trade would be negotiated for something much less than that. There's no requirement that a trade take place for that price, only that a team swooping in to get a FA has to pay that. I think CAR would be happy with a 3rd for him.
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Thanks CP!For Joe & David,

I'm not sure exactly what your intent was for this, but I'd like it a lot more if the players were ranked (somehow) by position, so you could see the best possible FA RBs for example with a comment on thoughts on where they may end up, etc... The guys that are borderline rosterable (NFL teams/not fantasy) could probably be dropped from the lists all-together (and there are several on there -- who cares what happens with Allen Barbre, C, Miami for example (other than maybe his family)...

 
Additional WRs not on your list:

ERFA Adrian Arrington NO

UFA Terrance Copper KC

ERFA Quan Cosby CIN

UFA Sam Hurd DAL

UFA Courtney Roby NO

RFA Marcus Smith BAL

UFA Michael Spurlock TB

UFA Maurice Stovall TB

UFA Kelley Washington SD

RFA Eric Weems ATL

 
'Dolfan said:
'wiscstlatlmia said:
Deangelo Williams to Miami:

(RotoWire) The Dolphins have expressed interest in acquiring Williams, the Sun-Sentinel reports.

Analysis: Williams appears equally keen on the Dolphins, noting that Miami is a "place I'd like to live. I hope I'm at the top of their list and they come after me." Perhaps the top prize of all free agent running backs, Williams went on to add that landing in a place with a solid quarterback situation is crucial: "In this league, the running game is all predicated on if you have a quarterback or not. If you don't have a quarterback, they stack the box, and they force you to do what you do best." If, however, the old free agent rules apply to this offseason, Williams could still be tendered by the Panthers.
Click to expand...
The link in the OP says he was tendered with a 1st & a 3rd. I didn't realize that... Does that mean that if Free Agency rules are left alone for 2011, that Miami would have to fork over a 1st & 3rd to get Williams?If so, forget it...
Click to expand...
It's unlikely that the rules from last year will be in place for 2011. If a new CBA is signed, they will at least go back to a 5 year player being unrestricted. If 2011 is played w/o a new CBA, the owners will likely not try to restrict 5 year players like they could under the uncapped year rules of 2010. Bottom line, Williams will very likely be an unrestricted FA.
 
Additional FA QBs to list:

UFA Todd Bouman JAC

UFA Brian Brohm BUF (not tendered RFA contract)

RFA Dennis Dixon PIT

RFA Caleb Hanie CHI

RFA Matt Leinart (5 yr guy, was tendered, so it depends on CBA status. Likely to end up UFA)

RFA Jordan Palmer CIN

RFA Tyler Thigpen MIA (see Leinart above)

 
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Additional TEs to list:

RFA Brad Cottam KC

UFA Greg Estandia CLE

RFA Daniel Fells STL

UFA Jeff King CAR

RFA Evan Moore CLE

RFA Gijon Robinson IND

RFA Tom Santi IND

TE Alex Smith CLE was re-signed in March.

TE Mike Caussin is signed for 2011 ($405,000)

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/mike-caussin/

I believe Dan Gronkowski DEN is under contract for 2011 at 405,000

I'd list Bo Scaife's comment as very unlikely to return

I'd list TE Dave Thomas NO comment as likely to return

 
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PKs:

RFA Connor Barth TB

UFA Matt Bryant ATL (should return)

Comment -- Olindo Mare has said he'd give hometown discount to return to SEA. Very likely back.

Vinatieri comment -- Irsay says deal has been discussed, return very likely

 
That's it for me for now boys. I only track skill position offensive guys (and PKs).

 
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Some additional guys who are not FAs but I've seen mentioned as being cut loose or traded:

Steve Slaton HOU

Correll Buckhalter DEN

Steve Smith CAR (not cut but possible trade)

Roy Williams DAL (unless he restructures big time)

Bernard Berrian MIN

Devery Henderson NO

PK David Buehler DAL (Kris Brown likely to hold job)

 
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'Dolfan said:
'Couch Potato said:
'Dolfan said:
'wiscstlatlmia said:
Deangelo Williams to Miami:

(RotoWire) The Dolphins have expressed interest in acquiring Williams, the Sun-Sentinel reports.

Analysis: Williams appears equally keen on the Dolphins, noting that Miami is a "place I'd like to live. I hope I'm at the top of their list and they come after me." Perhaps the top prize of all free agent running backs, Williams went on to add that landing in a place with a solid quarterback situation is crucial: "In this league, the running game is all predicated on if you have a quarterback or not. If you don't have a quarterback, they stack the box, and they force you to do what you do best." If, however, the old free agent rules apply to this offseason, Williams could still be tendered by the Panthers.
Click to expand...
The link in the OP says he was tendered with a 1st & a 3rd. I didn't realize that... Does that mean that if Free Agency rules are left alone for 2011, that Miami would have to fork over a 1st & 3rd to get Williams?If so, forget it...
Click to expand...
no, it would most likely mean a trade would be negotiated for something much less than that. There's no requirement that a trade take place for that price, only that a team swooping in to get a FA has to pay that. I think CAR would be happy with a 3rd for him.
Click to expand...
Thanks CP!For Joe & David,

I'm not sure exactly what your intent was for this, but I'd like it a lot more if the players were ranked (somehow) by position, so you could see the best possible FA RBs for example with a comment on thoughts on where they may end up, etc... The guys that are borderline rosterable (NFL teams/not fantasy) could probably be dropped from the lists all-together (and there are several on there -- who cares what happens with Allen Barbre, C, Miami for example (other than maybe his family)...
Click to expand...
Thanks. We'll get into ranking here soon. But for now the intent was purely to try to get a picture of what players are possibly in play and how they might move (or stay put). This is step one. Ranking and projecting based on this foundation is to come. Probably after the draft.J

 
Josh Johnson, QB, TB - he's still under contract. Rumor to SF is correct but it'd have to be a trade.

Danny Ware, RB, NYG was signed to a 2-year deal on 3/2.

Bo Scaife, TE, TEN - won't be back. - Twitter.

Probably should mention that Plaxico is incarcerated until June.

Laurent Robinson, WR, STL - Disagree with the "probably St. Louis", as Post-Dispatch writer says he's gone. LINK

IDPs

Cullen Jenkins is gone from GB. Rumored to be of interest to Chicago.

Albert Haynesworth rumored to go to Philly due to DL coach from TEN moving there.

Brandon Mebane, SEA, DL was given an original 3rd round tender. That won't stop anyone. He's gone.

Haloti Ngata was franchise tagged by Baltimore, then signed on 3/2.

Pat Williams is gone from MIN. LINK

 
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