2011 IDP Rookies (1 Viewer)

[faux_bear]

I know it's early, but I was hoping we could get some thoughts on who are the most likely candidates from this year's crop to be good IDP fantasy guys in dynasty leagues.

One thing I've noticed is that, according to most draft pundits, this seems to be a pretty weak year for LB's, particularly ILB's. For example, in his big board, Mel Kiper lists no ILB's in his top 32, and only 3 OLB's (Von Miller, Akeem Ayers, and Justin Houston). He also has only one safety, Rahim Moore, listed on there (at 31).

It seems that while this is a pretty good draft for defensive players in general, a lot of the best talent come from positions with less fantasy production, like DL and CB.

So, taking only talent into consideration, who are the guys that are most likely to put up big fantasy numbers on the defensive side of the ball? Is Von Miller the obvious choice even though he's most likely to play outside? Who are the inside LB's that are most likely to make an impact in fantasy?

 

[Cipherchris]

Many LB can become MLB or WLB in a 4-3 system, so there is hope that some of them can get a boost in their fantasy value. The S class is really extremely weak. Just watching the Combine you can understand how bad they are. But reality does not reflect fantasy, so some may become statistical relevant players.

Somehow reality does affect fantasy, so this year the rookie crop that you should aim for is DL and CB

 

[Mr. Peterson]

As far as IDP guys go, I think the first LB that should be taken is probably Martez Wilson from Illinois. I doubt he goes in the 1st but I can see him going early 2nd. The guy is a beast and plays fast. I think he'll rack up a lot of tackles in the NFL.

 

[Patsfan39]

This IDP class seems weaker than normal...

 

[Cipherchris]

Not Von Miller? I can tell that Martez Wilson is going to be good, but first LB overall I thnk should be Von Miller

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Not Von Miller? I can tell that Martez Wilson is going to be good, but first LB overall I thnk should be Von Miller

I just think MLB's do better in certain scoring leagues. I play in zealots leagues and in those MLB's ususally do better than OLB's, especially 3-4 OLB's (which Miller will be). Take a look at the 2009 draft. You had Curry (4th overall), Orakpo (13th overall), Cushing (15th overall) and Mathews (26th overall). Now all 4 LB's are ngood players and do well in most scoring leagues. But if you ask me I would prefer Laurinaitis who wasn't drafted till the 35th pick. MLB's just have better tackle opportunities usually.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

This IDP class seems weaker than normal...

Not for DE's anyway. I can't recall a draft class with so many high quality defensive end prospects. Da'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Adrian Clayborn, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, Justin Houston, and Brooks Read all look like 1st/2nd round picks.

 

[Crippler]

Just completed a mock draft for my home league. 1 per tackle, .5 per assist, 4 per sack, 5 per INT, 2, for FF, 3 for fR. So it leads to DE being nice and OLB like Matthews, Ware etc scoring nice

1. Von Miller. He will be the next James Harrison, Demarcus Ware, In tackle heavy he does not go 1st though

2. Robert Quinn. DE is just so hard to get especially in 16 team league

3. Dequan Bowers. Probably more tackles but less sacks than a guy like Quinn

4. Akeem Ayers. Sack specialist do well in this league

5. Martez Wilson. I see him as top in tackle leagues and he probably goes higher than this before our draft

6. Ryan Kerrigan. I see him in a 4-3

7. Aldon Smith. Goes higher if in a 4-3. Lower if going to a 3-4 as OLB

8. Justin Houston. Same as Aldon

9. Rahim Moore. This team is in need of big time S so he is higher than he probably should be

10. Adrian Clayborne. Like smith and Houston. Where he goes well determine value

11. Cameron Jordan. Another one to add to the where he goes list

12. JJ Watt. He is DE but is it 4-3 or 3-4. Go could way up if 4-3

13. Brooks Reed. Another one like many in here

14. Patrick PEterson. I usually dont want CB's but this guy had many picks already and needed one

15. Bruce Carter. Injury drops him is all. Healthy and he goes top 10 for sure

16. Cameron Heyward. More like Watt with the flexibility of draft spot

17. Mason Foster. OLB for sure. He could go higher in a draft like Zealots

18. Sam Acho. Another tweener and spot will determine. I call it the Aaron Kampman effect

19. Jabaal Sherrard. Could go way higher if listening to the Russ Lande

20. Dontay Moch. Very interesting prospect as he blew up the combine

 

[5Rings]

This IDP class seems weaker than normal...

Not for DE's anyway. I can't recall a draft class with so many high quality defensive end prospects. Da'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Adrian Clayborn, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, Justin Houston, and Brooks Read all look like 1st/2nd round picks.

Productive DLs are so hard to find right now. IMO, the top DLs (Suggs, Tuck, etc) are more valuable than top LBs (PWilly/Beason, etc). This is a great class for DE.

 

[Cipherchris]

This IDP class seems weaker than normal...

Not for DE's anyway. I can't recall a draft class with so many high quality defensive end prospects. Da'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Adrian Clayborn, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, Justin Houston, and Brooks Read all look like 1st/2nd round picks.

Productive DLs are so hard to find right now. IMO, the top DLs (Suggs, Tuck, etc) are more valuable than top LBs (PWilly/Beason, etc). This is a great class for DE.

Really? I know DE/DT are hard to find...so value higher yes. But drafting one is so much harder, are there any bust potential in this draft class? Probably. Bowers have injury risk, Fairley could just be in for the money (i say bust!), Quinn didn't play for a year.

 

[FUBAR]

This IDP class seems weaker than normal...

Not for DE's anyway. I can't recall a draft class with so many high quality defensive end prospects. Da'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Adrian Clayborn, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, Justin Houston, and Brooks Read all look like 1st/2nd round picks.

Productive DLs are so hard to find right now. IMO, the top DLs (Suggs, Tuck, etc) are more valuable than top LBs (PWilly/Beason, etc). This is a great class for DE.

Really? I know DE/DT are hard to find...so value higher yes. But drafting one is so much harder, are there any bust potential in this draft class? Probably. Bowers have injury risk, Fairley could just be in for the money (i say bust!), Quinn didn't play for a year.

Not to mention even the studs are wildly inconsistent. Osi might have finished the year #3 but I had to put up with weeks where he'd get half a tackle, then I'd be tempted to bench him and he'd get 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles the next. Granted, you might be able to do well playing matchups but if you're valuing a guy that high you need to play him every week. None of these guys (probably) are Tuck or Allen.

 

[5Rings]

This IDP class seems weaker than normal...

Not for DE's anyway. I can't recall a draft class with so many high quality defensive end prospects. Da'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Adrian Clayborn, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, Justin Houston, and Brooks Read all look like 1st/2nd round picks.

Productive DLs are so hard to find right now. IMO, the top DLs (Suggs, Tuck, etc) are more valuable than top LBs (PWilly/Beason, etc). This is a great class for DE.

Really? I know DE/DT are hard to find...so value higher yes. But drafting one is so much harder, are there any bust potential in this draft class? Probably. Bowers have injury risk, Fairley could just be in for the money (i say bust!), Quinn didn't play for a year.

Not to mention even the studs are wildly inconsistent. Osi might have finished the year #3 but I had to put up with weeks where he'd get half a tackle, then I'd be tempted to bench him and he'd get 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles the next. Granted, you might be able to do well playing matchups but if you're valuing a guy that high you need to play him every week. None of these guys (probably) are Tuck or Allen.

Sure the top guys will all have the donut game...but when your opponent is starting a 3-4ppg guy, and Osi goes off for 24pts, thats a huge advantage and can singlehandedly win a week for you. I guess I'm so high on elite DL because of VBD. LB12 is going to be much more effective than DL12. JMHO.

 

[FUBAR]

This IDP class seems weaker than normal...

Not for DE's anyway. I can't recall a draft class with so many high quality defensive end prospects. Da'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Adrian Clayborn, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, Justin Houston, and Brooks Read all look like 1st/2nd round picks.

Productive DLs are so hard to find right now. IMO, the top DLs (Suggs, Tuck, etc) are more valuable than top LBs (PWilly/Beason, etc). This is a great class for DE.

Really? I know DE/DT are hard to find...so value higher yes. But drafting one is so much harder, are there any bust potential in this draft class? Probably. Bowers have injury risk, Fairley could just be in for the money (i say bust!), Quinn didn't play for a year.

Not to mention even the studs are wildly inconsistent. Osi might have finished the year #3 but I had to put up with weeks where he'd get half a tackle, then I'd be tempted to bench him and he'd get 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles the next. Granted, you might be able to do well playing matchups but if you're valuing a guy that high you need to play him every week. None of these guys (probably) are Tuck or Allen.

Sure the top guys will all have the donut game...but when your opponent is starting a 3-4ppg guy, and Osi goes off for 24pts, thats a huge advantage and can singlehandedly win a week for you. I guess I'm so high on elite DL because of VBD. LB12 is going to be much more effective than DL12. JMHO.

Sure, but who did he take when you took Osi? In a vacuum of course great players are worth a lot.

 

[onionsack]

Just completed a mock draft for my home league. 1 per tackle, .5 per assist, 4 per sack, 5 per INT, 2, for FF, 3 for fR. So it leads to DE being nice and OLB like Matthews, Ware etc scoring nice1. Von Miller. He will be the next James Harrison, Demarcus Ware, In tackle heavy he does not go 1st though2. Robert Quinn. DE is just so hard to get especially in 16 team league3. Dequan Bowers. Probably more tackles but less sacks than a guy like Quinn4. Akeem Ayers. Sack specialist do well in this league5. Martez Wilson. I see him as top in tackle leagues and he probably goes higher than this before our draft6. Ryan Kerrigan. I see him in a 4-37. Aldon Smith. Goes higher if in a 4-3. Lower if going to a 3-4 as OLB8. Justin Houston. Same as Aldon9. Rahim Moore. This team is in need of big time S so he is higher than he probably should be10. Adrian Clayborne. Like smith and Houston. Where he goes well determine value11. Cameron Jordan. Another one to add to the where he goes list12. JJ Watt. He is DE but is it 4-3 or 3-4. Go could way up if 4-313. Brooks Reed. Another one like many in here14. Patrick PEterson. I usually dont want CB's but this guy had many picks already and needed one15. Bruce Carter. Injury drops him is all. Healthy and he goes top 10 for sure16. Cameron Heyward. More like Watt with the flexibility of draft spot17. Mason Foster. OLB for sure. He could go higher in a draft like Zealots18. Sam Acho. Another tweener and spot will determine. I call it the Aaron Kampman effect19. Jabaal Sherrard. Could go way higher if listening to the Russ Lande20. Dontay Moch. Very interesting prospect as he blew up the combine

Interesting that guys like Sturdivant, Sheppard, Greg Jones, McCarthy, Irving are all still available into the 20s...depending on the situation these guys land in, there will be some real steals very late in IDP drafts. Much as I like players like Watt, Cameron Jordan or Cameron Heyward, they will be vastly overrated IDPs if they end up playing 5-technique, as I expect they will.

 

[Crippler]

Just completed a mock draft for my home league. 1 per tackle, .5 per assist, 4 per sack, 5 per INT, 2, for FF, 3 for fR. So it leads to DE being nice and OLB like Matthews, Ware etc scoring nice1. Von Miller. He will be the next James Harrison, Demarcus Ware, In tackle heavy he does not go 1st though2. Robert Quinn. DE is just so hard to get especially in 16 team league3. Dequan Bowers. Probably more tackles but less sacks than a guy like Quinn4. Akeem Ayers. Sack specialist do well in this league5. Martez Wilson. I see him as top in tackle leagues and he probably goes higher than this before our draft6. Ryan Kerrigan. I see him in a 4-37. Aldon Smith. Goes higher if in a 4-3. Lower if going to a 3-4 as OLB8. Justin Houston. Same as Aldon9. Rahim Moore. This team is in need of big time S so he is higher than he probably should be10. Adrian Clayborne. Like smith and Houston. Where he goes well determine value11. Cameron Jordan. Another one to add to the where he goes list12. JJ Watt. He is DE but is it 4-3 or 3-4. Go could way up if 4-313. Brooks Reed. Another one like many in here14. Patrick PEterson. I usually dont want CB's but this guy had many picks already and needed one15. Bruce Carter. Injury drops him is all. Healthy and he goes top 10 for sure16. Cameron Heyward. More like Watt with the flexibility of draft spot17. Mason Foster. OLB for sure. He could go higher in a draft like Zealots18. Sam Acho. Another tweener and spot will determine. I call it the Aaron Kampman effect19. Jabaal Sherrard. Could go way higher if listening to the Russ Lande20. Dontay Moch. Very interesting prospect as he blew up the combine

Interesting that guys like Sturdivant, Sheppard, Greg Jones, McCarthy, Irving are all still available into the 20s...depending on the situation these guys land in, there will be some real steals very late in IDP drafts. Much as I like players like Watt, Cameron Jordan or Cameron Heyward, they will be vastly overrated IDPs if they end up playing 5-technique, as I expect they will.

I really believe Casey Matthews could go before all of those LB's if he lands in right situation. Dont forget Mark Herzlich also. Alot of mocks I have seen lately have Watt always going to a nice situation. Minny and Jacksonville for 2 I was doing today for my home league

 

[onionsack]

Just completed a mock draft for my home league. 1 per tackle, .5 per assist, 4 per sack, 5 per INT, 2, for FF, 3 for fR. So it leads to DE being nice and OLB like Matthews, Ware etc scoring nice1. Von Miller. He will be the next James Harrison, Demarcus Ware, In tackle heavy he does not go 1st though2. Robert Quinn. DE is just so hard to get especially in 16 team league3. Dequan Bowers. Probably more tackles but less sacks than a guy like Quinn4. Akeem Ayers. Sack specialist do well in this league5. Martez Wilson. I see him as top in tackle leagues and he probably goes higher than this before our draft6. Ryan Kerrigan. I see him in a 4-37. Aldon Smith. Goes higher if in a 4-3. Lower if going to a 3-4 as OLB8. Justin Houston. Same as Aldon9. Rahim Moore. This team is in need of big time S so he is higher than he probably should be10. Adrian Clayborne. Like smith and Houston. Where he goes well determine value11. Cameron Jordan. Another one to add to the where he goes list12. JJ Watt. He is DE but is it 4-3 or 3-4. Go could way up if 4-313. Brooks Reed. Another one like many in here14. Patrick PEterson. I usually dont want CB's but this guy had many picks already and needed one15. Bruce Carter. Injury drops him is all. Healthy and he goes top 10 for sure16. Cameron Heyward. More like Watt with the flexibility of draft spot17. Mason Foster. OLB for sure. He could go higher in a draft like Zealots18. Sam Acho. Another tweener and spot will determine. I call it the Aaron Kampman effect19. Jabaal Sherrard. Could go way higher if listening to the Russ Lande20. Dontay Moch. Very interesting prospect as he blew up the combine

Interesting that guys like Sturdivant, Sheppard, Greg Jones, McCarthy, Irving are all still available into the 20s...depending on the situation these guys land in, there will be some real steals very late in IDP drafts. Much as I like players like Watt, Cameron Jordan or Cameron Heyward, they will be vastly overrated IDPs if they end up playing 5-technique, as I expect they will.

I really believe Casey Matthews could go before all of those LB's if he lands in right situation. Dont forget Mark Herzlich also. Alot of mocks I have seen lately have Watt always going to a nice situation. Minny and Jacksonville for 2 I was doing today for my home league

Herzlich likely would have been a first rounder before his health woes. Rare combination of size, speed and instincts. But it really looks like the cancer has taken a toll on his athleticism. He struggled badly in coverage drills at the Senior Bowl practices and then threw up a really slow 4.92 40. Can't help but root for him to come back to his earlier form but he's got a ways to go. You wouldn't want to bet against a guy of his character, though. Same with Matthews...might not measure up to brother Clay in the shorts and track shoes drills, but he brings it on game day. And actually his athleticism isn't that far off. (He was even quicker in the short shuttle than Clay). Plenty of other dark horses in this draft who might prove valuable IDPs as well.

 

[corpcow]

I know it's early, but I was hoping we could get some thoughts on who are the most likely candidates from this year's crop to be good IDP fantasy guys in dynasty leagues.One thing I've noticed is that, according to most draft pundits, this seems to be a pretty weak year for LB's, particularly ILB's. For example, in his big board, Mel Kiper lists no ILB's in his top 32, and only 3 OLB's (Von Miller, Akeem Ayers, and Justin Houston). He also has only one safety, Rahim Moore, listed on there (at 31). It seems that while this is a pretty good draft for defensive players in general, a lot of the best talent come from positions with less fantasy production, like DL and CB. So, taking only talent into consideration, who are the guys that are most likely to put up big fantasy numbers on the defensive side of the ball? Is Von Miller the obvious choice even though he's most likely to play outside? Who are the inside LB's that are most likely to make an impact in fantasy?

For what it's worth - Mayock was talking today about how weak the CB class is - after Peterson and Prince, "there's not even another guy I would trust as a starter". Jimmy Smith has lots of athletic talent, borderline he said.

 

[corpcow]

Just completed a mock draft for my home league. 1 per tackle, .5 per assist, 4 per sack, 5 per INT, 2, for FF, 3 for fR. So it leads to DE being nice and OLB like Matthews, Ware etc scoring nice1. Von Miller. He will be the next James Harrison, Demarcus Ware, In tackle heavy he does not go 1st though2. Robert Quinn. DE is just so hard to get especially in 16 team league3. Dequan Bowers. Probably more tackles but less sacks than a guy like Quinn4. Akeem Ayers. Sack specialist do well in this league5. Martez Wilson. I see him as top in tackle leagues and he probably goes higher than this before our draft6. Ryan Kerrigan. I see him in a 4-37. Aldon Smith. Goes higher if in a 4-3. Lower if going to a 3-4 as OLB8. Justin Houston. Same as Aldon9. Rahim Moore. This team is in need of big time S so he is higher than he probably should be10. Adrian Clayborne. Like smith and Houston. Where he goes well determine value11. Cameron Jordan. Another one to add to the where he goes list12. JJ Watt. He is DE but is it 4-3 or 3-4. Go could way up if 4-313. Brooks Reed. Another one like many in here14. Patrick PEterson. I usually dont want CB's but this guy had many picks already and needed one15. Bruce Carter. Injury drops him is all. Healthy and he goes top 10 for sure16. Cameron Heyward. More like Watt with the flexibility of draft spot17. Mason Foster. OLB for sure. He could go higher in a draft like Zealots18. Sam Acho. Another tweener and spot will determine. I call it the Aaron Kampman effect19. Jabaal Sherrard. Could go way higher if listening to the Russ Lande20. Dontay Moch. Very interesting prospect as he blew up the combine

Interesting that guys like Sturdivant, Sheppard, Greg Jones, McCarthy, Irving are all still available into the 20s...depending on the situation these guys land in, there will be some real steals very late in IDP drafts. Much as I like players like Watt, Cameron Jordan or Cameron Heyward, they will be vastly overrated IDPs if they end up playing 5-technique, as I expect they will.

I really believe Casey Matthews could go before all of those LB's if he lands in right situation. Dont forget Mark Herzlich also. Alot of mocks I have seen lately have Watt always going to a nice situation. Minny and Jacksonville for 2 I was doing today for my home league

Herzlich likely would have been a first rounder before his health woes. Rare combination of size, speed and instincts. But it really looks like the cancer has taken a toll on his athleticism. He struggled badly in coverage drills at the Senior Bowl practices and then threw up a really slow 4.92 40. Can't help but root for him to come back to his earlier form but he's got a ways to go. You wouldn't want to bet against a guy of his character, though. Same with Matthews...might not measure up to brother Clay in the shorts and track shoes drills, but he brings it on game day. And actually his athleticism isn't that far off. (He was even quicker in the short shuttle than Clay). Plenty of other dark horses in this draft who might prove valuable IDPs as well.

As a fellow cancer survivor - definitely, definitely rooting for Herzlich.

 

[corpcow]

This IDP class seems weaker than normal...

Not for DE's anyway. I can't recall a draft class with so many high quality defensive end prospects. Da'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Adrian Clayborn, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, Justin Houston, and Brooks Read all look like 1st/2nd round picks.

Productive DLs are so hard to find right now. IMO, the top DLs (Suggs, Tuck, etc) are more valuable than top LBs (PWilly/Beason, etc). This is a great class for DE.

Really? I know DE/DT are hard to find...so value higher yes. But drafting one is so much harder, are there any bust potential in this draft class? Probably. Bowers have injury risk, Fairley could just be in for the money (i say bust!), Quinn didn't play for a year.

The thing is, most DE/DT take awhile to emerge... it's a position that rookies typically don't produce at right away. Tuck, Osi, Charles Johnson, etc... all recent examples of this. I've found especially in dynasty that sometimes it's the guys who were top prospects and subsequently dropped who seem to break out in year 3 or 4...

 

[Cipherchris]

Hmm...:-/ i guess thats what Taxi squads are for. Quick question, should i cut Will Smith in hopes of picking a good DE that can be there for years to come.

 

[KellysHeroes]

This IDP class seems weaker than normal...

Not for DE's anyway. I can't recall a draft class with so many high quality defensive end prospects. Da'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Adrian Clayborn, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, Justin Houston, and Brooks Read all look like 1st/2nd round picks.

Productive DLs are so hard to find right now. IMO, the top DLs (Suggs, Tuck, etc) are more valuable than top LBs (PWilly/Beason, etc). This is a great class for DE.

Really? I know DE/DT are hard to find...so value higher yes. But drafting one is so much harder, are there any bust potential in this draft class? Probably. Bowers have injury risk, Fairley could just be in for the money (i say bust!), Quinn didn't play for a year.

Not to mention even the studs are wildly inconsistent. Osi might have finished the year #3 but I had to put up with weeks where he'd get half a tackle, then I'd be tempted to bench him and he'd get 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles the next. Granted, you might be able to do well playing matchups but if you're valuing a guy that high you need to play him every week. None of these guys (probably) are Tuck or Allen.

the problem with drafting top DL Talent is that it takes a couple of yrs for them to be productive; Rookie LBs and DBs can be productive as soon as they hit the field.

 

[jsharlan]

Jene should do a RSP like Matt does, I'd pay for that.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene should do a RSP like Matt does, I'd pay for that.

Thanks for that. Matt and I have talked about this for a number of years now. The main stumbling block (although it would take a lot of coaching and work to get me anywhere near striking distance of the awesome work that Matt does) is time. My current home and work responsibilities wouldn't leave me nearly enough time to give such a project the time it would deserve to be done well.I'll continue to do my aggregate scouting report and highlight studies to put together the prospect preview and NFL comp threads and be ready to add plenty of thoughts as the players come off the board on draft weekend, but I don't think an IDP RSP is in the cards anytime soon.

 

[Dave Baker]

...I don't think an IDP RSP is in the cards anytime soon.

Boo!!!Too bad, cause you'd do a great job of it Jene.