2011 WR Strategy: WRs by ADP (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Strategy Summary

* Try to get one of the Big6 particulary with draft slots in the back half of the draft

* After the Big 6 don't reach, be leary of 3rd and 4th round busts or where risk doesn't equal reward

* Try to get the following players after the top 25 WRs are off the board: Ocho Cinco, Kenny Britt, AJ Green

* Target deep sleepers Danario Alexander, T.O., Randy Moss, Meachem, Jacoby Jones

LINK to QB Strategy Thread

LINK to RB Strategy Thread

This is ADP data from FBG's consensus data for PPR leagues

Red = Sell or Overvalued

Green = Buy or Undervalued

Consensus Name Team Pos Expert MFL Calc non-PPR

7 Andre Johnson HOU WR 1 7 7 7 7

8 Roddy White ATL WR 2 9 9 10 12 expect decrease in targets/receptions

10 Calvin Johnson DET WR 3 8 8 11 11

13 Hakeem Nicks NYG WR 4 11 14 17 18

14 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 5 12 16 18 22 back to elite status with Kolb

19 Greg Jennings GB WR 6 15 19 22 20

21 Reggie Wayne IND WR 7 18 23 25 24 slowing down

23 Mike Wallace PIT WR 8 24 21 24 25 numbers don't justify draft spot

25 Miles Austin DAL WR 9 21 24 30 31 inconsistency and Bryant are cause for concern

26 Vincent Jackson SD WR 10 22 25 31 28 Explosive WR on explosive offense

27 Dwayne Bowe KC WR 11 27 28 28 33

30 DeSean Jackson PHI WR 12 41 29 35 30

35 Brandon Marshall MIA WR 13 25 38 34 40

37 Mike Williams TB WR 14 36 33 37 37 less TDs

38 Wes Welker NE WR 15 30 40 43 47

44 Jeremy Maclin PHI WR 16 54 42 41 42 Limited upside with Desean

47 Marques Colston NO WR 17 46 44 49 41

48 Dez Bryant DAL WR 18 50 39 47 45

50 Brandon Lloyd DEN WR 19 34 55 54 53 Orton is huge

51 Santonio Holmes NYJ WR 20 37 51 59 54

52 Steve Johnson BUF WR 21 52 47 50 58

57 Percy Harvin MIN WR 22 47 58 58 63 McNabb talking Pro Bowl for Harvin

58 Anquan Boldin BAL WR 23 56 63 64 62

61 Austin Collie IND WR 24 60 61 66 69 injury history too much

62 Sidney Rice SEA WR 25 61 60 63 66

70 Kenny Britt TEN WR 26 79 64 76 72 Could blow up huge

74 Pierre Garcon IND WR 27 91 71 68 74 Too many mouths, injury prone

75 Steve Smith CAR WR 28 59 89 81 79

76 Johnny Knox CHI WR 29 63 83 87 82 too many mouths, mediocre talent

77 Mario Manningham NYG WR 30 87 74 77 76

79 A.J. Green CIN WR 31 74 72 92 83 could put up Randy Moss rookie numbers

81 Michael Crabtree SF WR 95 73 86 78

82 Santana Moss WAS WR 33 66 93 83 89 Chase Stuart is playing QB in DC

83 Julio Jones ATL WR 34 94 77 91 87

85 Chad Ochocinco NE WR 35 80 94 97 80 Best WR on potent offense

88 Mike Thomas JAX WR 36 83 84 90 97 Proven ability, easily the top target for the Jags

99 Mike Williams SEA WR 37 96 96 106 106

105 Jacoby Ford OAK WR 38 98 100 101 112

108 Jordy Nelson GB WR 39 125 97 108 116 one of 4 Packers WRs

109 Deion Branch NE WR 40 116 126 116 111

110 Danny Amendola STL WR 41 164 103 107 145

111 Steve Smith WR 42 143 101 122 130

117 Braylon Edwards SF WR 43 127 107 111 107

119 Davone Bess MIA WR 44 110 115 125 139

120 Malcom Floyd SD WR 45 140 127 135 122 overlooked talent

121 Plaxico Burress NYJ WR 46 138 124 119 119

122 Lance Moore NO WR 47 108 119 115 129

125 Hines Ward PIT WR 48 113 152 139 121

126 Mike Sims-Walker STL WR 49 115 139 137 126

134 Robert Meachem NO WR 50 151 141 145 135 entering prime

135 Greg Little CLE WR 51 102 120 165 156

146 Randy Moss WR 52 212 147 130 144 still has it, will land in good spot

149 Emmanuel Sanders PIT WR 53 160 135 166 158

154 Jerome Simpson CIN WR 54 153 144 161 153

156 James Jones GB WR 55 163 151 156 140

158 Steve Breaston KC WR 56 168 181 174 148

159 Roy Williams CHI WR 57 206 174 118 152

160 Arrelious Benn TB WR 58 99 154 212 179

163 Danario Alexander STL WR 59 188 167 154 180 #1 WR on top 5 passing offense

165 Terrell Owens WR 60 174 196 143 149 proved last year he stall has it

170 Mark Clayton STL WR 61 207 155 179 157

174 Earl Bennett CHI WR 62 144 180 180 194

175 Lee Evans BUF WR 63 128 230 197 187

180 Donald Driver GB WR 64 175 231 216 154

182 Derrick Mason NYJ WR 65 155 222 182 170

189 Nate Burleson DET WR 66 136 225 193 195

190 Jonathan Baldwin KC WR 67 214 162 164 206

196 Devin Hester CHI WR 68 217 234 181 254

197 Donnie Avery STL WR 69 148 203 228 220

201 Jordan Shipley CIN WR 70 218 183 175 209

203 Louis Murphy OAK WR 71 219 235 206 251

207 Jacoby Jones HOU WR 72 222 213 191 207 just needs to put it all together

208 Anthony Armstrong WAS WR 73 223 214 170 186

210 Dexter McCluster KC WR 74 224 223 190 227

213 Leonard Hankerson WAS WR 75 226 168 224 226

214 Torrey Smith BAL WR 76 227 186 240 244 Likely starting, gamebreaker

219 Jason Hill JAX WR 77 170 238 241 243

226 Eddie Royal DEN WR 78 197 220 222 248

229 Josh Morgan SF WR 79 209 244 195 196

231 Michael Jenkins MIN WR 80 236 245 247 275

234 Randall Cobb GB WR 81 237 216 214 256

235 Charlie Hennigan WR 82 240 247 202 275

239 Jabar Gaffney WAS WR 83 205 249 220 222

240 Mohamed Massaquoi CLE WR 84 243 250 211 262

242 Brandon LaFell CAR WR 85 199 251 248 272

243 Blair White IND WR 86 247 252 250 275

244 Titus Young DET WR 87 246 226 221 247

245 Andre Roberts ARI WR 88 245 211 249 249

248 Demaryius Thomas DEN WR 89 249 215 253 275

258 Vincent Brown SD WR 90 258 258 234 274

NOT LISTED IN FBG ADP

Bernard Berrian McNabb is huge

Brandon Gibson currently starting in pass happy offense

 

[RJS113]

I love me some mid round WRs this year. Guys like Dez Bryant, Ochocinco, Britt, and Manningham are gonna allow me to load on up RBs in the first few rounds. Depending on where I'm picking I'm even thinking about going Vick-RB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR.

 

[LHUCKS]

I love me some mid round WRs this year. Guys like Dez Bryant, Ochocinco, Britt, and Manningham are gonna allow me to load on up RBs in the first few rounds. Depending on where I'm picking I'm even thinking about going Vick-RB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR.

I like this strategy particularly if you can't land a top 5 WR.

 

[gbill2004]

I like Chaz Schillens this year!!!

 

[FUBAR]

I strongly disagree with your assessment of Maclin and Collie. I'll gladly take both as my WR2. Collie probably won't post WR1 stats, but he'll be a good 2 while Maclin should finish top 12.

 

[We Tigers]

I know "Randy Moss Randy Moss" is your thing, but I can't at all a justify a Moss pick with guys like Sanders and Benn coming off the board after him. Sanders outscored Randy last year, when Randy wasn't retired!

Speaking of Sanders and Benn, hello my favorite late round targets. I like WRs all over the board this year, with Ford and Manningham being my favorite mid-round guys.

 

[sho nuff]

So you spend a good part of summer calling Jennings the most overrated NFL and FF WR and you have him basically as a hold at #6?

 

[beerbarron]

nice list.. thanks.. what about roy williams in chi.. you have a hold on him.. seems he has more upside there than in dallas...

 

[LHUCKS]

So you spend a good part of summer calling Jennings the most overrated NFL and FF WR and you have him basically as a hold at #6?

His fantasy value is greater than his actual value.

 

[LHUCKS]

nice list.. thanks.. what about roy williams in chi.. you have a hold on him.. seems he has more upside there than in dallas...

there is a reason Dallas let him go, I think it will largely be WRBC in Chicago with none of the WRs really standing out. I see a lot of fantasy mediocrity for the Bears WRs in 2011.

 

[LHUCKS]

I know "Randy Moss Randy Moss" is your thing, but I can't at all a justify a Moss pick with guys like Sanders and Benn coming off the board after him. Sanders outscored Randy last year, when Randy wasn't retired!Speaking of Sanders and Benn, hello my favorite late round targets. I like WRs all over the board this year, with Ford and Manningham being my favorite mid-round guys.

Admittedly, I am on an island with Randy. When Randy checks out he is a subpar WR, when he checks in he is a beast. I think he's motivated to be a beast again. We'll see if he gets that opportunity. I just got him as the 60th WR off the board so I like the low risk/high reward he presents.

 

[LHUCKS]

I strongly disagree with your assessment of Maclin and Collie. I'll gladly take both as my WR2. Collie probably won't post WR1 stats, but he'll be a good 2 while Maclin should finish top 12.

Almost every time I call out a player as overvalued there is a backlash. The reality is this, you should have roughly 50% of players overvalued.(taking out the holds) Something to keep in mind. Collie's problem is staying on the field...he's a hit away from endangering his career and he doesn't strike me as a guy that's going to avoid that hit.Maclin's problem and even Desean's to an extent is that there is only so many balls to go around in Philly.

 

[sho nuff]

So you spend a good part of summer calling Jennings the most overrated NFL and FF WR and you have him basically as a hold at #6?

His fantasy value is greater than his actual value.

You called him the most overrated FF and actual NFL WR...and based that on him being ranked around the #5 or #6 WR.BTW...his actual value to the Packers is pretty darn high.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I think you are badly under estimating Wallace and Austin.

Maclin, StvJo, Garcon will all outperform their current ADP.

 

[DaMenace18]

I'm curious why you like A.J Green so much. Particularly in a PPR league?

 

[bengalbuck]

I guess it depends on format, but these are the guys I disagree on:

VJax- I'm having a tough time figuring out how he's a buy this year at his current ADP. He's broke the 60 catch mark once in 7 years. He's never had double digit TDs. He had 14 catches last season in 5+ games. He's the #2 target on his own offense. I just don't see him as anything more than a 55-60 catch guy with 1000 yards and 7-9 TDs. Nothing wrong with those numbers, but don't see how those #s make him a buy as a top 10 WR.

Mike Wallace- His #s don't justify his spot? He had a better season last year than anything VJax has ever done...how is he a sell then when VJax is a buy. I also think the Steelers pass attack is underrated and he's emerging as the clear #1. At least a hold for me, bordering on buy.

Mike Williams-I guess if you view his last season as a fluke, he's a sell. But I see it as a monster rookie season out of a stud talent who is going to continue to improve. His QB, who was 22 last season, should continue to improve right along with him.

Every Colts WR- I guess I view this as a situation where you can pretty much lock in Peyton's 4000 yards and 30 TDs. Its just a question of how they are spread around...so it doesn't make sense to me that you can be down on all of his WRs (unless you think D. Clark is getting 2000 yards). At least one of these guys is going to have a monster year. I like Collie's chances the best, but history says you will be wrong on at least one of these guys.

Danario Alexander- I think you're crazy if you think he ends up being the #1 guy in STL. I view him as waiver wire fodder. That knee will never be right and STL's roster moves, in my opinion, indicate that they feel the same way (Pettis, Salas, MSW, etc.).

 

[beerbarron]

nice list.. thanks.. what about roy williams in chi.. you have a hold on him.. seems he has more upside there than in dallas...

there is a reason Dallas let him go, I think it will largely be WRBC in Chicago with none of the WRs really standing out. I see a lot of fantasy mediocrity for the Bears WRs in 2011.

Im not a Roy Will fan at all. seems like he has some upside in his current location but he has to want to take advantage of the situation... and he seems to underproduce every year... martz may get some production out of him....

 

[austinball]

LHUCKS,

Thanks for sharing your analysis. Agree or not, your thoughts help shape mine and I appreciate you taking a stand.

Good luck!

 

[Tanner9919]

So you spend a good part of summer calling Jennings the most overrated NFL and FF WR and you have him basically as a hold at #6?

His fantasy value is greater than his actual value.

thanks for this thread, LHUCKS.I've got a few questions about some of the rankings.

1. who is McNabb to say that Harvin is a pro bowl WR this year? when McNabb stops passing the ball into the dirt 5 yards downfield despite wide-opened WR's I'll take his word on it, till then, dude couldn't beat even out a guy who's NOT in football, J. Beck..think about that: Washington was so turned-off by McNabb they actually hired a guy who's been out of football to replace him.. don't we collectively, every year, tout THIS as the year for B. Berrian,and every year he fails to live up to the hype? can we stop this already?

Garcon seems like great value being so low..You have R. Wayne as red meaning he's slipping..who else is going to catch balls in Indy? you said Garcon is injury prone, but isn't every WR/TE on the Colts' roster injury prone??

even at 13, Nicks is tremendous value!

I agree with your opinion about AJ Green..the guy is a beast in the making.

like other posters, I'm not sold on Vjax..sure he'll have some good games, but he's awfully streaky and that means he's wildly inconsistent..

Fitzgerald's stats will once again go through the roof, Kolb isn't great but Az attempted the 11th most passes in 2010, assuming Kolb is even SLIGHTLY better than last year's clowns, Fitz's numbers will skyrocket..and I think Kolb is a LOT better than what people think..I view him as a Matt Shaub type -a backup who blossoms once traded.

isn't Calvin Johnson vastly overrated? aside from one "good" season, the guy is VJax v2.0..only 2 seasons ( out of 4) with double digit TDs. gone over 1000 yards just twice.and caught 77+ balls in a single season twice..seems to be an every-other-year wr..check his stats..bad, good, bad, good..

he's good for about 70 recs and 8 TDs, if you're lucky... elite talent but hampered by the lack of quality, consistent QB play out of detroit's inept offense..how he is ranked at #10 is beyond me..

knock Santana Moss all you want, but Shanahan has his Rod Smith-type WR in Washington..he's a LOCK for another 90+ catch season.

once Harvin proves he can last a full 16 games I'll become a believer..till then, no thanks.

Manningham at 77 is pure GOLD! he's going to be a top 15 WR

 

[Concept Coop]

Randy Moss rookie numbers? You really think Green has a chance to lead the NFL in touchdowns with 17? Or do you think the 1,300 yards is doable?

 

[LHUCKS]

Look at the comments collectively...what do you see?

Almost everybody agrees with the underrated and almost nobody agrees with the overrated.

Human nature my friends.

Like I said, you should theoretically have 50% of the non-hold players as overvalued.

"You better check yo self, before you wreck yo self"

- Ice Cube

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm curious why you like A.J Green so much. Particularly in a PPR league?

He is the total package...one of the top WR prospects of the last 10 years.Andy Dalton is already locking onto him.(see recent article)Because of his size he is a double digit TD threat.He is already the star of Bengals camp.Even if you hate the Bengals offense, you can still project big numbers for Green.

 

[LHUCKS]

Randy Moss rookie numbers? You really think Green has a chance to lead the NFL in touchdowns with 17? Or do you think the 1,300 yards is doable?

Double digit TDs and 1300 yards is possible. Those aren't the midpoints of my projection ranges for Green, but he definitely has that upside IMHO.

 

[Concept Coop]

Randy Moss rookie numbers? You really think Green has a chance to lead the NFL in touchdowns with 17? Or do you think the 1,300 yards is doable?

Double digit TDs and 1300 yards is possible. Those aren't the midpoints of my projection ranges for Green, but he definitely has that upside IMHO.

If he can best Andre Johnson's best season, as a rookie, with a rookie throwing him the ball, he should be the #1 dynasty player. Not WR, player.Those numbers are pretty far-fetched.

 

[fightingillini]

Good post, LHUCKS. My comments are:

1) Disagree about Roddy White. Not sure why you think his targets are going to go down. Sure, he will probably catch less passes in 2011....he only caught 115 last year. He's a lock for 95+ catches, 1250+ yards and 9+ TDs. Safe pick as a top 5 WR.

2) I think you need to add DeSean Jackson to the "sell" category. I think DJackson and Maclin are going to limit each's upside. Both should have solid seasons, but to be a pick at WR12, you need to have potential to be close to a top 5 WR.....Jackson just doesn't catch enough passes to be a top 6-7 WR. Now if your league awards points for punt returns....different story....he's a steal at WR12.

3) Agree about Mike Wallace. I can't justify spending a high draft pick on him.....similar to DeSean Jackson....won't catch enough passes....his value will depend a lot on the long ball and TDs.

4) Disagree on Mike Williams TB. TB offense has a lot of potential, and while Williams likely won't catch 11 TDs, he should get more catches and yards to offset that. WR14 is decent value for Williams.

5) Agree on Miles Austin.....like his talent, but IMO Dez Bryant is going to explode this year, severely limiting Austin's upside. Still should catch 75-80 passes and go over 1000 yards for a solid year, but I want more at WR9.

6) Dez Bryant should be a "buy" at WR18. His upside is through the roof. Sure he has risk, but guys like Bryant are the ones that could win your league.

6) I would put Dwayne Bowe in the "sell" category at WR11. No way I want to draft this guy as my WR1. No way he scores 15 TDs. Way too inconsistent. And KC's sched is more difficult this year as discussed in other threads.

7) Agree on Ochocinco at WR35....that's a steal, but I would expect his ADP to climb as the preseason rolls on.

8) And I agree 100% with your first draft strategy. This year it's imperative to get one of the top WRs this year (I would include Reggie Wayne in there, so it's the top 7 WRs for me). If you don't get one of those WRs, get two solid RBs and a top QB and start getting WRs in Round 4.

 

[LHUCKS]

Randy Moss rookie numbers? You really think Green has a chance to lead the NFL in touchdowns with 17? Or do you think the 1,300 yards is doable?

Double digit TDs and 1300 yards is possible. Those aren't the midpoints of my projection ranges for Green, but he definitely has that upside IMHO.

If he can best Andre Johnson's best season, as a rookie, with a rookie throwing him the ball, he should be the #1 dynasty player. Not WR, player.Those numbers are pretty far-fetched.

You realize Green graded out higher than Andre Johnson right?Still "far-fetched?"

 

[Concept Coop]

Randy Moss rookie numbers? You really think Green has a chance to lead the NFL in touchdowns with 17? Or do you think the 1,300 yards is doable?

Double digit TDs and 1300 yards is possible. Those aren't the midpoints of my projection ranges for Green, but he definitely has that upside IMHO.

If he can best Andre Johnson's best season, as a rookie, with a rookie throwing him the ball, he should be the #1 dynasty player. Not WR, player.Those numbers are pretty far-fetched.

You realize Green graded out higher than Andre Johnson right?Still "far-fetched?"

Very. Andre Johnson is regarded as the best WR in football. Maybe even the best post-Moss/TO (prime). You are projecting Green as a rookie, with a rookie QB, and not much talent around him, to out-produce the best WR in football, in his prime. "Randy Moss like" rookie seasons don't happen often. I don't recall another rookie WR season like Moss' actually. And I question anyone that graded Green higher than Johnson.

 

[LHUCKS]

You are projecting Green as a rookie, with a rookie QB, and not much talent around him, to out-produce the best WR in football, in his prime.

No I'm not...silly goose.Reading is fundamental.

 

[Concept Coop]

You are projecting Green as a rookie, with a rookie QB, and not much talent around him, to out-produce the best WR in football, in his prime.

No I'm not...silly goose.Reading is fundamental.

You're right. You're not projecting it. Just saying it's possible. Still - it's not.

 

[LHUCKS]

Good post, LHUCKS. My comments are:1) Disagree about Roddy White. Not sure why you think his targets are going to go down. Sure, he will probably catch less passes in 2011....he only caught 115 last year. He's a lock for 95+ catches, 1250+ yards and 9+ TDs. Safe pick as a top 5 WR.

So you agree that he will have less receptions.Do you agree he will have less TDs?

 

[LHUCKS]

4) Disagree on Mike Williams TB. TB offense has a lot of potential, and while Williams likely won't catch 11 TDs, he should get more catches and yards to offset that. WR14 is decent value for Williams.

I'm a bit worried abot a sophomore slump for the entire Bucs offense.The offense isn't overly complex...I have a feeling D Coordinators are going to catch up.

 

[Jail]

You are projecting Green as a rookie, with a rookie QB, and not much talent around him, to out-produce the best WR in football, in his prime.

No I'm not...silly goose.Reading is fundamental.

You're right. You're not projecting it. Just saying it's possible. Still - it's not.

Certainly it is possible. Likely? No. Possible-yes. Boldin had 1300/100 rec/8 TDs as a rookie.

 

[Concept Coop]

You are projecting Green as a rookie, with a rookie QB, and not much talent around him, to out-produce the best WR in football, in his prime.

No I'm not...silly goose.Reading is fundamental.

You're right. You're not projecting it. Just saying it's possible. Still - it's not.

Certainly it is possible. Likely? No. Possible-yes. Boldin had 1300/100 rec/8 TDs as a rookie.

No more possible than it is for any number of low-end WR3 options. Not possible enough to warrant a comment, even. Boldin had one of the best rookie WR years that I remember, and he would need to double his TD total to equal Randy Moss'. There is zero chance it happens. Zero.

 

[Short Corner]

You are projecting Green as a rookie, with a rookie QB, and not much talent around him, to out-produce the best WR in football, in his prime.

No I'm not...silly goose.Reading is fundamental.

You're right. You're not projecting it. Just saying it's possible. Still - it's not.

Certainly it is possible. Likely? No. Possible-yes. Boldin had 1300/100 rec/8 TDs as a rookie.

No more possible than it is for any number of low-end WR3 options. Not possible enough to warrant a comment, even. Boldin had one of the best rookie WR years that I remember, and he would need to double his TD total to equal Randy Moss'. There is zero chance it happens. Zero.

Care to make it interesting?

 

[valhallan]

* Target deep sleepers Danario Alexander, T.O., Randy Moss, Meachem, Jacoby Jones

He's still a body-catcher. Moore is the play.

 

[Raiders Fan]

I like the Lloyd and Harvin this year a lot. I see them being undervalued at least early on.