My opinion, which is a little different now that there is more of a 1st round pick cap, is that if you have a potential franchise QB, I would draft them every time. Even if Aaron Curry is an All-Pro, if you draft him first you are paying QB All-Pro money to a LB. You are behind the game salary cap wise even if they play great. I would hesitate if there are a lot of red flags, say like JaMarcus, or a situation like Leaf or Mirer where you just miss out on a great guy and reach for the next best.
Isn't there some risk that that is what's going on here as well? Luck is the great guy and RG3 is the next one, who has seen his draft stock catapult partly (or even largely) on the basis of two of the other top QB propsects returning to school and the other one being locked into the #1 overall position.I'm not saying that's all RG3 is, but this stuff is all hindsight. At the time, people weren't just saying Leaf and Mirer were the "next guy" any more than they're saying it with RG3 now, and if he does bust and someone tries to make the same point as you 5 years from now they'd likely use him as one of those examples.
Absolutely a risk. Without hearing all of the combine/tryout details, I have no idea on RG3. My main thought is still that if a team thinks they have a franchise QB in a pick, I would not hesitate to pull the trigger. Below is a list of Super Bowl winning QBs (not even including losing QBs like Kelly, Marino, etc.). While there are some Dilfers in there, most of the list is solid/HOF QBs. I know winning SBs helps to make the HOF, but look at the more recent ones starting with Aikman, we have S. Young, Aikman, Brady, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Elway, Favre, Warner, P. Manning and E. Manning as 17 of last 19. The only odd balls are Brad Johnson and Dilfer who were on rare great Ds. With Brees, Roethlisberger, E. Manning, Rodgers and Brady as 5 of the 8 playoff teams, it is probably going to be 18 of 20.