I was very wary of Gates' foot last year, but I was impressed with how he finished the season after looking awful and missing time. So right now, I'd be very happy landing Gronk, Graham, or Gates but I just really doubt that happens. I think Lloyd might really hurt Hernandez's production, I don't think the 49ers will throw more this year yet they added competition for Davis, Romo just doesn't target Witten in the end zone, I don't see why Finley will see more than last year's 92 targets, and no one in the next tier of guys does anything for me, so if I don't land a top 3 guy, I'm waiting until late to grab a couple upside guys. Let me know if you guys see something I'm missing in the guys I don't like or something I'm placing too much value on for the guys I'm talking up...
ADP Name Team Pos 14 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 1 15 Jimmy Graham NO TE 2 49 Antonio Gates SD TE 3 60 Aaron Hernandez NE TE 4 - Brandon Lloyd65 Vernon Davis SF TE 5 - Randy Moss, Crabman, Manningham, etc. 68 Jason Witten DAL TE 6 - Romo doesn't love him like Kitna did 70 Jermichael Finley GB TE 7 - 92 targets can be found much later82 Fred Davis WAS TE 8 - rookie QB94 Brandon Pettigrew DET TE 9 - less pass attempts, lots of competition100 Tony Gonzalez ATL TE 10 - Julio moves him to #3 target111 Jacob Tamme DEN TE 11 - Peyton's health/ability ?s plus Dreesen is no slouch 117 Brent Celek PHI TE 12 - First guy that interests me 123 Jermaine Gresham CIN TE 13 - Some interest 126 Jared Cook TEN TE 14 - no strong feeling, someone want to sell him? 133 Owen Daniels HOU TE 15 - Really like him 137 Coby Fleener IND TE 16 - nope 149 Dustin Keller NYJ TE 17 - nope166 Greg Olsen CAR TE 18 - Like him, too 189 Kellen Winslow SEA TE 19 - maybe not even the best TE on his team202 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 20 - don't know much, anyone want to chime in? 206 Martellus Bennett NYG TE 21 - I'm open to the possibility that he could finally shine224 Dallas Clark TB TE 22 - nope 231 Heath Miller PIT TE 23 - Great sleeper pick, Haley might feature him finally237 Ed Dickson BAL TE 24 - Can he hold off Pitta? 249 Joel Dreessen DEN TE 25 - would like him if not for the split260 Tony Moeaki KC TE 26 - not many passes, but will be a TE2 264 Lance Kendricks STL TE 27 - don't know much, but willing to listen. Lots of hype last year.270 Scott Chandler BUF TE 28 - Buf doesn't seem to use the TE much271 Marcedes Lewis JAX TE 29 - not a Gabbert believerSo from that list, I'd like to take a cursory look into:Celek (10th round) - Finished TE4 in 2009, TE19 in 2010, TE10 in 2011 - played in 16 each of those seasons. Currently drafted TE12, he looks like fair value at first glance. Definitely came on strong in the 2nd half despite similar targets (27/48 for 269/2 vs. 35/50 for 542/3). Those catch percentages straddle his career avg of 63.9%. His TD/rec was on pace. So far, I think he's a pretty strong play in 2012.
Gresham (11th round) - 3rd year 21st overall selection. Finished TE13 on 98 targets in 14 games with a rookie QB. Would be 112 targets in 16 games. Only caught 57% last year after 64% his rookie year. That could easily correct itself with some chemistry unless the 64% was the anomaly. That's the risk in drafting young players. I'd be pretty happy with 112 x 60% = 67 rec in the 11th round so long as he kept up his very good TD/9 rec rate.
Cook (11th round) - Strong second half (30/47 for 442 yds, but only 1 TD) but still sporadic use - two games in a row with only 1 target, followed by an 11 target game. Anyone want to hype him up?
Daniels (12th round) - He was the one that stood out most to me initially. I really like him even though HOU has shifted to the run. But 48 of his 84 targets came in the first 8 games, and only 36 in the last 7 which could be chalked up to Shaub's injury. In the 9 full games they played together, he was on pace for 92 targets, 60 rec, 795 yds, 5 TD. It remains to be seen how the departure of Dreesen affects Daneils. James Casey is a very talented guy who looks to step into Dreesen's role, so it may not mean more targets for Daniels. The 10 targets a game that Andre Johnson vacated during most of the season did not seem to go Daniels way. I think they just ran more with him out. Either way, I'm left with mixed feelings about Daniels.
Olsen (14th round) - He finished last year as TE18 while splitting time with Shockey. 89 targets for Olsen, 62 for Shockey. Olsen only caught about 50% while Shockey caught 60%. Olsen's stats dropped off considerably in the 2nd half (30/52 vs. 15/37) but so did Shockey's. Not sure why they went away from the TEs. Should they incorporate the TE and give Olsen the majority of the targets, he could easily make his way into the top 10 considering he and Shockey combined for 153 targets. It has its risks, but I'd be tempted to roll the dice with him as my TE1. He looks like the best value play of all the TEs.
Bennett (18th round) - A former 2nd round selection with bad press surrounding his attitude... I have only heard that he stacked on the muscle in the offseason. Eli made Kevin Boss a fringe FF starter, IIRC, so I don't see why a fit Bennett couldn't be a TE1 while trying to earn a new contract.
H.Miller (20th round) - I think I recall Waldman praising him years ago and that he will no longer be overlooked now that Todd Haley is the OC. If he does indeed get a fair share of targets, he could be the TE sleeper of the year. He finished TE9 in 2009 on 98 targets. I'll need some confirmation of his involvement in Haley's offense, but if that's true, an Olsen/Miller TE combo might look pretty solid at the end of the year while looking pretty flimsy right now to the casual observer.
Moeaki (22nd round) - Pretty impressive rookie year, then missed all of last year with a torn ACL in August or September. If he can get 5 targets a game again (or more) then he should be serviceable and easily outproduce his TE26 ADP (finished TE20 in 15 games as a rookie). They did bring in Kevin Boss, though.
Honorable mention: Dennis Pitta (not on ADP list) - if he should somehow wrestle the starting TE job away from Dickson, he could be a great steal. He caught 71.4% of his targets last year compared to Dickson's 60.7% while slightly edging him out in ypr. Dickson saw 89 target while Pitta only got 56. Pitta won't be rostered in most leagues to start the season, but should he get 80-100 targets, he'll be in some starting lineups by season's end.
Again, let me know who I'm overlooking or why I'm wrong about the guys above. I'm pretty sure I'll be ignoring the TE position before round 10 like it is 2005 all over again.
ADP Name Team Pos 14 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 1 15 Jimmy Graham NO TE 2 49 Antonio Gates SD TE 3 60 Aaron Hernandez NE TE 4 - Brandon Lloyd65 Vernon Davis SF TE 5 - Randy Moss, Crabman, Manningham, etc. 68 Jason Witten DAL TE 6 - Romo doesn't love him like Kitna did 70 Jermichael Finley GB TE 7 - 92 targets can be found much later82 Fred Davis WAS TE 8 - rookie QB94 Brandon Pettigrew DET TE 9 - less pass attempts, lots of competition100 Tony Gonzalez ATL TE 10 - Julio moves him to #3 target111 Jacob Tamme DEN TE 11 - Peyton's health/ability ?s plus Dreesen is no slouch 117 Brent Celek PHI TE 12 - First guy that interests me 123 Jermaine Gresham CIN TE 13 - Some interest 126 Jared Cook TEN TE 14 - no strong feeling, someone want to sell him? 133 Owen Daniels HOU TE 15 - Really like him 137 Coby Fleener IND TE 16 - nope 149 Dustin Keller NYJ TE 17 - nope166 Greg Olsen CAR TE 18 - Like him, too 189 Kellen Winslow SEA TE 19 - maybe not even the best TE on his team202 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 20 - don't know much, anyone want to chime in? 206 Martellus Bennett NYG TE 21 - I'm open to the possibility that he could finally shine224 Dallas Clark TB TE 22 - nope 231 Heath Miller PIT TE 23 - Great sleeper pick, Haley might feature him finally237 Ed Dickson BAL TE 24 - Can he hold off Pitta? 249 Joel Dreessen DEN TE 25 - would like him if not for the split260 Tony Moeaki KC TE 26 - not many passes, but will be a TE2 264 Lance Kendricks STL TE 27 - don't know much, but willing to listen. Lots of hype last year.270 Scott Chandler BUF TE 28 - Buf doesn't seem to use the TE much271 Marcedes Lewis JAX TE 29 - not a Gabbert believerSo from that list, I'd like to take a cursory look into:Celek (10th round) - Finished TE4 in 2009, TE19 in 2010, TE10 in 2011 - played in 16 each of those seasons. Currently drafted TE12, he looks like fair value at first glance. Definitely came on strong in the 2nd half despite similar targets (27/48 for 269/2 vs. 35/50 for 542/3). Those catch percentages straddle his career avg of 63.9%. His TD/rec was on pace. So far, I think he's a pretty strong play in 2012.
Gresham (11th round) - 3rd year 21st overall selection. Finished TE13 on 98 targets in 14 games with a rookie QB. Would be 112 targets in 16 games. Only caught 57% last year after 64% his rookie year. That could easily correct itself with some chemistry unless the 64% was the anomaly. That's the risk in drafting young players. I'd be pretty happy with 112 x 60% = 67 rec in the 11th round so long as he kept up his very good TD/9 rec rate.
Cook (11th round) - Strong second half (30/47 for 442 yds, but only 1 TD) but still sporadic use - two games in a row with only 1 target, followed by an 11 target game. Anyone want to hype him up?
Daniels (12th round) - He was the one that stood out most to me initially. I really like him even though HOU has shifted to the run. But 48 of his 84 targets came in the first 8 games, and only 36 in the last 7 which could be chalked up to Shaub's injury. In the 9 full games they played together, he was on pace for 92 targets, 60 rec, 795 yds, 5 TD. It remains to be seen how the departure of Dreesen affects Daneils. James Casey is a very talented guy who looks to step into Dreesen's role, so it may not mean more targets for Daniels. The 10 targets a game that Andre Johnson vacated during most of the season did not seem to go Daniels way. I think they just ran more with him out. Either way, I'm left with mixed feelings about Daniels.
Olsen (14th round) - He finished last year as TE18 while splitting time with Shockey. 89 targets for Olsen, 62 for Shockey. Olsen only caught about 50% while Shockey caught 60%. Olsen's stats dropped off considerably in the 2nd half (30/52 vs. 15/37) but so did Shockey's. Not sure why they went away from the TEs. Should they incorporate the TE and give Olsen the majority of the targets, he could easily make his way into the top 10 considering he and Shockey combined for 153 targets. It has its risks, but I'd be tempted to roll the dice with him as my TE1. He looks like the best value play of all the TEs.
Bennett (18th round) - A former 2nd round selection with bad press surrounding his attitude... I have only heard that he stacked on the muscle in the offseason. Eli made Kevin Boss a fringe FF starter, IIRC, so I don't see why a fit Bennett couldn't be a TE1 while trying to earn a new contract.
H.Miller (20th round) - I think I recall Waldman praising him years ago and that he will no longer be overlooked now that Todd Haley is the OC. If he does indeed get a fair share of targets, he could be the TE sleeper of the year. He finished TE9 in 2009 on 98 targets. I'll need some confirmation of his involvement in Haley's offense, but if that's true, an Olsen/Miller TE combo might look pretty solid at the end of the year while looking pretty flimsy right now to the casual observer.
Moeaki (22nd round) - Pretty impressive rookie year, then missed all of last year with a torn ACL in August or September. If he can get 5 targets a game again (or more) then he should be serviceable and easily outproduce his TE26 ADP (finished TE20 in 15 games as a rookie). They did bring in Kevin Boss, though.
Honorable mention: Dennis Pitta (not on ADP list) - if he should somehow wrestle the starting TE job away from Dickson, he could be a great steal. He caught 71.4% of his targets last year compared to Dickson's 60.7% while slightly edging him out in ypr. Dickson saw 89 target while Pitta only got 56. Pitta won't be rostered in most leagues to start the season, but should he get 80-100 targets, he'll be in some starting lineups by season's end.
Again, let me know who I'm overlooking or why I'm wrong about the guys above. I'm pretty sure I'll be ignoring the TE position before round 10 like it is 2005 all over again.