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2012 TE value plays (1 Viewer)

FF Ninja

Footballguy
I was very wary of Gates' foot last year, but I was impressed with how he finished the season after looking awful and missing time. So right now, I'd be very happy landing Gronk, Graham, or Gates but I just really doubt that happens. I think Lloyd might really hurt Hernandez's production, I don't think the 49ers will throw more this year yet they added competition for Davis, Romo just doesn't target Witten in the end zone, I don't see why Finley will see more than last year's 92 targets, and no one in the next tier of guys does anything for me, so if I don't land a top 3 guy, I'm waiting until late to grab a couple upside guys. Let me know if you guys see something I'm missing in the guys I don't like or something I'm placing too much value on for the guys I'm talking up...

ADP Name Team Pos 14 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 1 15 Jimmy Graham NO TE 2 49 Antonio Gates SD TE 3 60 Aaron Hernandez NE TE 4 - Brandon Lloyd65 Vernon Davis SF TE 5 - Randy Moss, Crabman, Manningham, etc. 68 Jason Witten DAL TE 6 - Romo doesn't love him like Kitna did 70 Jermichael Finley GB TE 7 - 92 targets can be found much later82 Fred Davis WAS TE 8 - rookie QB94 Brandon Pettigrew DET TE 9 - less pass attempts, lots of competition100 Tony Gonzalez ATL TE 10 - Julio moves him to #3 target111 Jacob Tamme DEN TE 11 - Peyton's health/ability ?s plus Dreesen is no slouch 117 Brent Celek PHI TE 12 - First guy that interests me 123 Jermaine Gresham CIN TE 13 - Some interest 126 Jared Cook TEN TE 14 - no strong feeling, someone want to sell him? 133 Owen Daniels HOU TE 15 - Really like him 137 Coby Fleener IND TE 16 - nope 149 Dustin Keller NYJ TE 17 - nope166 Greg Olsen CAR TE 18 - Like him, too 189 Kellen Winslow SEA TE 19 - maybe not even the best TE on his team202 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 20 - don't know much, anyone want to chime in? 206 Martellus Bennett NYG TE 21 - I'm open to the possibility that he could finally shine224 Dallas Clark TB TE 22 - nope 231 Heath Miller PIT TE 23 - Great sleeper pick, Haley might feature him finally237 Ed Dickson BAL TE 24 - Can he hold off Pitta? 249 Joel Dreessen DEN TE 25 - would like him if not for the split260 Tony Moeaki KC TE 26 - not many passes, but will be a TE2 264 Lance Kendricks STL TE 27 - don't know much, but willing to listen. Lots of hype last year.270 Scott Chandler BUF TE 28 - Buf doesn't seem to use the TE much271 Marcedes Lewis JAX TE 29 - not a Gabbert believerSo from that list, I'd like to take a cursory look into:Celek (10th round) - Finished TE4 in 2009, TE19 in 2010, TE10 in 2011 - played in 16 each of those seasons. Currently drafted TE12, he looks like fair value at first glance. Definitely came on strong in the 2nd half despite similar targets (27/48 for 269/2 vs. 35/50 for 542/3). Those catch percentages straddle his career avg of 63.9%. His TD/rec was on pace. So far, I think he's a pretty strong play in 2012.

Gresham (11th round) - 3rd year 21st overall selection. Finished TE13 on 98 targets in 14 games with a rookie QB. Would be 112 targets in 16 games. Only caught 57% last year after 64% his rookie year. That could easily correct itself with some chemistry unless the 64% was the anomaly. That's the risk in drafting young players. I'd be pretty happy with 112 x 60% = 67 rec in the 11th round so long as he kept up his very good TD/9 rec rate.

Cook (11th round) - Strong second half (30/47 for 442 yds, but only 1 TD) but still sporadic use - two games in a row with only 1 target, followed by an 11 target game. Anyone want to hype him up?

Daniels (12th round) - He was the one that stood out most to me initially. I really like him even though HOU has shifted to the run. But 48 of his 84 targets came in the first 8 games, and only 36 in the last 7 which could be chalked up to Shaub's injury. In the 9 full games they played together, he was on pace for 92 targets, 60 rec, 795 yds, 5 TD. It remains to be seen how the departure of Dreesen affects Daneils. James Casey is a very talented guy who looks to step into Dreesen's role, so it may not mean more targets for Daniels. The 10 targets a game that Andre Johnson vacated during most of the season did not seem to go Daniels way. I think they just ran more with him out. Either way, I'm left with mixed feelings about Daniels.

Olsen (14th round) - He finished last year as TE18 while splitting time with Shockey. 89 targets for Olsen, 62 for Shockey. Olsen only caught about 50% while Shockey caught 60%. Olsen's stats dropped off considerably in the 2nd half (30/52 vs. 15/37) but so did Shockey's. Not sure why they went away from the TEs. Should they incorporate the TE and give Olsen the majority of the targets, he could easily make his way into the top 10 considering he and Shockey combined for 153 targets. It has its risks, but I'd be tempted to roll the dice with him as my TE1. He looks like the best value play of all the TEs.

Bennett (18th round) - A former 2nd round selection with bad press surrounding his attitude... I have only heard that he stacked on the muscle in the offseason. Eli made Kevin Boss a fringe FF starter, IIRC, so I don't see why a fit Bennett couldn't be a TE1 while trying to earn a new contract.

H.Miller (20th round) - I think I recall Waldman praising him years ago and that he will no longer be overlooked now that Todd Haley is the OC. If he does indeed get a fair share of targets, he could be the TE sleeper of the year. He finished TE9 in 2009 on 98 targets. I'll need some confirmation of his involvement in Haley's offense, but if that's true, an Olsen/Miller TE combo might look pretty solid at the end of the year while looking pretty flimsy right now to the casual observer.

Moeaki (22nd round) - Pretty impressive rookie year, then missed all of last year with a torn ACL in August or September. If he can get 5 targets a game again (or more) then he should be serviceable and easily outproduce his TE26 ADP (finished TE20 in 15 games as a rookie). They did bring in Kevin Boss, though.

Honorable mention: Dennis Pitta (not on ADP list) - if he should somehow wrestle the starting TE job away from Dickson, he could be a great steal. He caught 71.4% of his targets last year compared to Dickson's 60.7% while slightly edging him out in ypr. Dickson saw 89 target while Pitta only got 56. Pitta won't be rostered in most leagues to start the season, but should he get 80-100 targets, he'll be in some starting lineups by season's end.

Again, let me know who I'm overlooking or why I'm wrong about the guys above. I'm pretty sure I'll be ignoring the TE position before round 10 like it is 2005 all over again.

 
Quick thoughts:

Don't think Hernandez will be negatively impacted by Lloyd. I predict that he'll be a much better value than Gronkowski this year and wouldn't be surprised if he beats Gronkowski's numbers across the board.

Vernon Davis will be fine -- the WR's will hurt each other but not him.

Fred Davis could have a big season if he can stay on the field.

Don't agree with your comment about Witten but I also don't think he's an amazing value.

Cook flashed enormous potential and has as much upside as almost anyone outside the Top 10.

I like Fleener as a very late pick based on the chemistry with Luck and lack of competition.

Rudolph has a lot of ability and I think we'll see him flash that this year, but it will likely come in fits and starts.

Gresham has quietly improved and has nice chemistry with Dalton. Won't go nuts but I think people are lower on him than they should be.

 
My :2cents:

Don't think Hernandez is affect by Lloyd. Agree with TS Garp that I think Hernandez ends up with pretty similar numbers to gronkowski.

Davis/Witten/Finley not big on.

I like Fred Davis and he's probably your best bet to sneak into the top 4. Not sure why you think a rookie QB is bad for him.

Fleener is an interesting prospect, but is going too high for my liking.

I think Keller and Olsen are your best bets to get a top 12 TE at a discount. Keller is more of a gamble, but he becomes the #2 option in the passing game and if Sanchez can kind of put his act together you're getting pretty good value, but if Tebow plays, his value is almost nil. No more Shockey gives Olsen a good chance to break into top 12.

 
Vernon Davis will be fine -- the WR's will hurt each other but not him.
I disagree with this. Davis is a great blocking TE, and now that they have viable receiving options, they won't have to force feed him the ball and can instead use him to pass protect more.People tend look at Davis' great playoff performance when projecting him, which happened in part due to the fact that the 49ers' receivers were no-shows in both playoff games.
 
Vernon Davis will be fine -- the WR's will hurt each other but not him.
I disagree with this. Davis is a great blocking TE, and now that they have viable receiving options, they won't have to force feed him the ball and can instead use him to pass protect more.People tend look at Davis' great playoff performance when projecting him, which happened in part due to the fact that the 49ers' receivers were no-shows in both playoff games.
Force feed? He had 95 targets last year (19 less than Crabtree). If anything, I think you'll see that rise if Manningham and Moss can do a better job of opening up the middle of the field for him.
 
Celek is the guy here IMO. After his horrid first 5 games, he was a top 3 TE IIRC for the last 11 games. Now he is healthy.

Fred Davis is getting a lot of hype. But the rookie QB-TE connection is a fallacy. And although he was on a good pace, that was with the Redskins' very lackluster WR group. Now they have Garcon, a rejuvenated Moss, another year from Hankerson, Morgan(who Shanny rosterbated over).

Bennett is almost 300 pounds. I wouldn't expect much. I think the Giants use him as a 6th OL.

 
Quick thoughts:Don't think Hernandez will be negatively impacted by Lloyd. I predict that he'll be a much better value than Gronkowski this year and wouldn't be surprised if he beats Gronkowski's numbers across the board.Vernon Davis will be fine -- the WR's will hurt each other but not him.Fred Davis could have a big season if he can stay on the field.Don't agree with your comment about Witten but I also don't think he's an amazing value.Cook flashed enormous potential and has as much upside as almost anyone outside the Top 10.I like Fleener as a very late pick based on the chemistry with Luck and lack of competition.Rudolph has a lot of ability and I think we'll see him flash that this year, but it will likely come in fits and starts.Gresham has quietly improved and has nice chemistry with Dalton. Won't go nuts but I think people are lower on him than they should be.
Out of Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez, Lloyd is more like Hernandez than the other 2. I don't see how Hernandez gets over 100 targets this year.Vernon Davis has gotten 92 and 95 targets the last two years. That's just not enough to be consistent. Just the risk of losing 5-10 targets is scary.Witten has had 4, 2, 9, and 5 TDs the last 4 years. He got the 9 the season Romo missed. He is a longshot to surpass 5 TDs this year with a healthy Austin/Bryant combo. I'm not paying a premium price for 120 targets and 5 TDs.I had Fred Davis last year, so I know he's talented, but rookie QBs are always a gamble. Is Cooley gone?How do you think Cook will fare with Hasselbeck vs. Locker? Also, Britt will be back to command some targets.Mostly playing devil's advocate there, but would love to hear some more thoughts on those guys.
 
gonzalez - I know he's old, and all that, but he seems to be falling pretty crazy low for his recent production.

he was probably right around te5 in most ppr leagues last year.

daniels - also like with the departure of dreesen

tamme - they've said he'll be manning's first option, and he's produced with manning before.

will actually maybe run more routes than he did in indy.

kind of a wiseguy pick, though, so maybe doesn't fall so low, and these kind of guys are always a gamble.

olsen - I'd take another shot on him - looks like a good situation.

rudolph - I'd like him more if they didn't sign carlson

bennett - sounds too fat

kendricks - hear they're supposedly leaning on him -- I'd say he's worth a superlate stash if you have extra room, but I don't have my hopes very high

I don't see kellen davis on your list.

was behind olsen earlier in his career, and managed 5 td last year despite the martz factor.

he was getting some raves this spring from his teammates about being a physical freak, etc, but so does cook.

maybe has a minibreakout with martz gone.

 
Vernon Davis will be fine -- the WR's will hurt each other but not him.
I disagree with this. Davis is a great blocking TE, and now that they have viable receiving options, they won't have to force feed him the ball and can instead use him to pass protect more.People tend look at Davis' great playoff performance when projecting him, which happened in part due to the fact that the 49ers' receivers were no-shows in both playoff games.
Force feed? He had 95 targets last year (19 less than Crabtree). If anything, I think you'll see that rise if Manningham and Moss can do a better job of opening up the middle of the field for him.
In the playoffs he was force fed because the WRs were complete no-shows. He'll still put up respectable stats but I dont think the 49ers went out and got all those WRs just to keep feeding the ball to Davis all the time, especially when Davis can be used for blocking. He'll still get a decent share especially in the end zone but his ADP is too high for me to bite on right now.
 
Interesting thread. I like the idea and discussion.

Rudolph flashed some great ability last year, but the signing of Carlson has made me intrigued to see the direction MIN is going. Assuming ADP isn't ready early the season and they slowly ease him in, I am wondering if MIN is looking at how NE and DET used double TE sets in their passing game to establish momentum. I can definitely see MIN considering some of this approach, especially with no deep threat at this point. My concern is I don't know which one is going to emerge as the primary TE here (Rudolph or Carlson).

Tamme should be a solid outlet for Peyton.

Cook was feast or famine last year.

Definitely like Daniels.

 
In the playoffs he was force fed because the WRs were complete no-shows. He'll still put up respectable stats but I dont think the 49ers went out and got all those WRs just to keep feeding the ball to Davis all the time, especially when Davis can be used for blocking. He'll still get a decent share especially in the end zone but his ADP is too high for me to bite on right now.
I think they went after Manningham because they wanted a WR to stretch the field -- something Crabtree is incapable of doing. Moss is a luxury. If he works out -- fantastic. If not, nothing lost. But I truly don't believe they brought in Manningham and Moss because they thought they were forcing the ball to Davis too much. The 49ers are a traditional, run-first team that values the tight end catching the ball. I think they want to take more shots down the field to facilitate the run and open things up for more intermediate passes, which will help Davis. He's a vital offensive weapon, and I think his role will increase (by 10-15%), not decrease, this season.
 
Quick thoughts:

Don't think Hernandez will be negatively impacted by Lloyd. I predict that he'll be a much better value than Gronkowski this year and wouldn't be surprised if he beats Gronkowski's numbers across the board.

Vernon Davis will be fine -- the WR's will hurt each other but not him.

Fred Davis could have a big season if he can stay on the field.

Don't agree with your comment about Witten but I also don't think he's an amazing value.

Cook flashed enormous potential and has as much upside as almost anyone outside the Top 10.

I like Fleener as a very late pick based on the chemistry with Luck and lack of competition.

Rudolph has a lot of ability and I think we'll see him flash that this year, but it will likely come in fits and starts.

Gresham has quietly improved and has nice chemistry with Dalton. Won't go nuts but I think people are lower on him than they should be.
Out of Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez, Lloyd is more like Hernandez than the other 2. I don't see how Hernandez gets over 100 targets this year.

I disagree. I think the Patriots will use Lloyd as a deep target and I don't see that cutting into Hernandez's production at all. Hernandez is an incredibly versatile player and I think he'll get the ball in a number of ways. I'm not saying he will explode but I think his numbers have a much better chance to be stable and even slightly rise (especially when you consider that he missed a couple of games) than Gronkowski.

Vernon Davis has gotten 92 and 95 targets the last two years. That's just not enough to be consistent. Just the risk of losing 5-10 targets is scary.

I just don't see that happening. As I mentioned in this thread, I see his role increasing and certainly not decreasing.

Witten has had 4, 2, 9, and 5 TDs the last 4 years. He got the 9 the season Romo missed. He is a longshot to surpass 5 TDs this year with a healthy Austin/Bryant combo. I'm not paying a premium price for 120 targets and 5 TDs.



Fair enough. As I say, I don't think he's a great value but wouldn't be at all surprised to see him score more than 5 td's. The difference between 4 td's and even 7 td's can be fairly random at times.

I had Fred Davis last year, so I know he's talented, but rookie QBs are always a gamble. Is Cooley gone?

Not concerned about Cooley. Griffin didn't throw to the TE a lot in college but I still don't see his presence as a negative here. Look at it this way -- Davis was explosive at times with Grossman/Beck. Surely, even if Griffin struggles at times, he's an upgrade over Grossman/Beck.

How do you think Cook will fare with Hasselbeck vs. Locker? Also, Britt will be back to command some targets.

I think Locker is the more dynamic, albeit erratic, QB. But the upside is there with Cook, either way. I don't know how consistent he'll be, but if you want to take a big shot with someone who could pay off huge, I think Cook and Davis are the guys.

Mostly playing devil's advocate there, but would love to hear some more thoughts on those guys.
 
I see Keller as great value. 65/815/5 with 115 targets is pretty solid for a TE with no injury history being drafted in round 14/15. His targets have increased every year (#6 in 2011) and as expressed above, he is now the #2 receiving option with Plax gone. Plax's exit could also provide a bump in red zone targets for Keller. I could see him with 70/850/7

 
I see Keller as great value. 65/815/5 with 115 targets is pretty solid for a TE with no injury history being drafted in round 14/15. His targets have increased every year (#6 in 2011) and as expressed above, he is now the #2 receiving option with Plax gone. Plax's exit could also provide a bump in red zone targets for Keller. I could see him with 70/850/7
It is pure speculation, but the popular thought that Tebow would be the guy inside the 5 yard line makes sense given his efficiency there. And Keller scored 3 of his 5 TDs on passes from inside the 5 yard line. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with 4 TDs or less this year. His targets have gone up each year as have the passing attempts, but if Sparano dials it back a notch or two then Keller's targets would also get dialed back. I really think he'll struggle to match last year's production.
 
If you miss out on the top 3, I feel Daniels is the guy to target first. Olsen would be next on my list. As far as Hernandez goes, I don't think anyone should worry about taking him 4th, or even 3rd as far TE's go. Brady threw 611 times last season. They didn't bring McDaniels back and sign Lloyd so Brady can throw 500 times. I think he'll get up to at least 650 attempts this year. That's plenty of balls to go around. Give Welker 150, Gronk 120, Lloyd 120. That's 390 targets. Where are the other 260 gonna go? I like the fear with Hernandez this year. I agree that he could beat Gronk across the board as well...

 
I see Keller as great value. 65/815/5 with 115 targets is pretty solid for a TE with no injury history being drafted in round 14/15. His targets have increased every year (#6 in 2011) and as expressed above, he is now the #2 receiving option with Plax gone. Plax's exit could also provide a bump in red zone targets for Keller. I could see him with 70/850/7
It is pure speculation, but the popular thought that Tebow would be the guy inside the 5 yard line makes sense given his efficiency there. And Keller scored 3 of his 5 TDs on passes from inside the 5 yard line. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with 4 TDs or less this year. His targets have gone up each year as have the passing attempts, but if Sparano dials it back a notch or two then Keller's targets would also get dialed back. I really think he'll struggle to match last year's production.
Aren't we all speculating? Yes, Tebow will certainly vulture goal line TDs, but I see more responsibility falling on Keller inside the 20 with Plax gone. Sparano's presence means less total pass attempts, but without Plax and LT, Holmes and Keller are really the only two viable options in the passing game so I don't see a big dip in targets. One of the intended goals of a more simple offensive scheme is that Sparano will bring more efficiency to the offense, which could yield a higher catch rate.
 
I see Keller as great value. 65/815/5 with 115 targets is pretty solid for a TE with no injury history being drafted in round 14/15. His targets have increased every year (#6 in 2011) and as expressed above, he is now the #2 receiving option with Plax gone. Plax's exit could also provide a bump in red zone targets for Keller. I could see him with 70/850/7
It is pure speculation, but the popular thought that Tebow would be the guy inside the 5 yard line makes sense given his efficiency there. And Keller scored 3 of his 5 TDs on passes from inside the 5 yard line. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with 4 TDs or less this year. His targets have gone up each year as have the passing attempts, but if Sparano dials it back a notch or two then Keller's targets would also get dialed back. I really think he'll struggle to match last year's production.
Aren't we all speculating? Yes, Tebow will certainly vulture goal line TDs, but I see more responsibility falling on Keller inside the 20 with Plax gone. Sparano's presence means less total pass attempts, but without Plax and LT, Holmes and Keller are really the only two viable options in the passing game so I don't see a big dip in targets. One of the intended goals of a more simple offensive scheme is that Sparano will bring more efficiency to the offense, which could yield a higher catch rate.
This makes sense to me. I haven't done projections for him yet this year, but I agree with what you're saying in terms of him benefiting from the absence of Burress. I also think that Sparano will end up being a net gain for Keller.
 
I was very wary of Gates' foot last year, but I was impressed with how he finished the season after looking awful and missing time. So right now, I'd be very happy landing Gronk, Graham, or Gates but I just really doubt that happens. I think Lloyd might really hurt Hernandez's production, I don't think the 49ers will throw more this year yet they added competition for Davis, Romo just doesn't target Witten in the end zone, I don't see why Finley will see more than last year's 92 targets, and no one in the next tier of guys does anything for me, so if I don't land a top 3 guy, I'm waiting until late to grab a couple upside guys. Let me know if you guys see something I'm missing in the guys I don't like or something I'm placing too much value on for the guys I'm talking up...

ADP Name Team Pos 14 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 1 15 Jimmy Graham NO TE 2 49 Antonio Gates SD TE 3 60 Aaron Hernandez NE TE 4 - Brandon Lloyd65 Vernon Davis SF TE 5 - Randy Moss, Crabman, Manningham, etc. 68 Jason Witten DAL TE 6 - Romo doesn't love him like Kitna did 70 Jermichael Finley GB TE 7 - 92 targets can be found much later82 Fred Davis WAS TE 8 - rookie QB94 Brandon Pettigrew DET TE 9 - less pass attempts, lots of competition100 Tony Gonzalez ATL TE 10 - Julio moves him to #3 target111 Jacob Tamme DEN TE 11 - Peyton's health/ability ?s plus Dreesen is no slouch 117 Brent Celek PHI TE 12 - First guy that interests me 123 Jermaine Gresham CIN TE 13 - Some interest 126 Jared Cook TEN TE 14 - no strong feeling, someone want to sell him? 133 Owen Daniels HOU TE 15 - Really like him 137 Coby Fleener IND TE 16 - nope 149 Dustin Keller NYJ TE 17 - nope166 Greg Olsen CAR TE 18 - Like him, too 189 Kellen Winslow SEA TE 19 - maybe not even the best TE on his team202 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 20 - don't know much, anyone want to chime in? 206 Martellus Bennett NYG TE 21 - I'm open to the possibility that he could finally shine224 Dallas Clark TB TE 22 - nope 231 Heath Miller PIT TE 23 - Great sleeper pick, Haley might feature him finally237 Ed Dickson BAL TE 24 - Can he hold off Pitta? 249 Joel Dreessen DEN TE 25 - would like him if not for the split260 Tony Moeaki KC TE 26 - not many passes, but will be a TE2 264 Lance Kendricks STL TE 27 - don't know much, but willing to listen. Lots of hype last year.270 Scott Chandler BUF TE 28 - Buf doesn't seem to use the TE much271 Marcedes Lewis JAX TE 29 - not a Gabbert believerSo from that list, I'd like to take a cursory look into:Celek (10th round) - Finished TE4 in 2009, TE19 in 2010, TE10 in 2011 - played in 16 each of those seasons. Currently drafted TE12, he looks like fair value at first glance. Definitely came on strong in the 2nd half despite similar targets (27/48 for 269/2 vs. 35/50 for 542/3). Those catch percentages straddle his career avg of 63.9%. His TD/rec was on pace. So far, I think he's a pretty strong play in 2012.



I think he numbers regress, Vick doesn't look for his tight ends a lot and Maclin will be healthy going into the year.

Gresham (11th round) - 3rd year 21st overall selection. Finished TE13 on 98 targets in 14 games with a rookie QB. Would be 112 targets in 16 games. Only caught 57% last year after 64% his rookie year. That could easily correct itself with some chemistry unless the 64% was the anomaly. That's the risk in drafting young players. I'd be pretty happy with 112 x 60% = 67 rec in the 11th round so long as he kept up his very good TD/9 rec rate.

I think he breaks out this year, defenses are going to be looking to stop A.J. Green more.

Cook (11th round) - Strong second half (30/47 for 442 yds, but only 1 TD) but still sporadic use - two games in a row with only 1 target, followed by an 11 target game. Anyone want to hype him up?



I am not sure what to think, he looks great sometimes and lost other times, but I would love to have him as my second tight end

Daniels (12th round) - He was the one that stood out most to me initially. I really like him even though HOU has shifted to the run. But 48 of his 84 targets came in the first 8 games, and only 36 in the last 7 which could be chalked up to Shaub's injury. In the 9 full games they played together, he was on pace for 92 targets, 60 rec, 795 yds, 5 TD. It remains to be seen how the departure of Dreesen affects Daneils. James Casey is a very talented guy who looks to step into Dreesen's role, so it may not mean more targets for Daniels. The 10 targets a game that Andre Johnson vacated during most of the season did not seem to go Daniels way. I think they just ran more with him out. Either way, I'm left with mixed feelings about Daniels.



Love the value here, I think he could finish top 5 if (a big if) Andre Johnson, and Schaub stay healthy this year.

Olsen (14th round) - He finished last year as TE18 while splitting time with Shockey. 89 targets for Olsen, 62 for Shockey. Olsen only caught about 50% while Shockey caught 60%. Olsen's stats dropped off considerably in the 2nd half (30/52 vs. 15/37) but so did Shockey's. Not sure why they went away from the TEs. Should they incorporate the TE and give Olsen the majority of the targets, he could easily make his way into the top 10 considering he and Shockey combined for 153 targets. It has its risks, but I'd be tempted to roll the dice with him as my TE1. He looks like the best value play of all the TEs.

Not buying it, I think Lafell and Gettis step up, and I think Stewart and Williams run the ball more this year.

Bennett (18th round) - A former 2nd round selection with bad press surrounding his attitude... I have only heard that he stacked on the muscle in the offseason. Eli made Kevin Boss a fringe FF starter, IIRC, so I don't see why a fit Bennett couldn't be a TE1 while trying to earn a new contract.



I think the other Giant tight ends will cut into his targets because they will be on the field more due to Bennett not being a very good blocker.

H.Miller (20th round) - I think I recall Waldman praising him years ago and that he will no longer be overlooked now that Todd Haley is the OC. If he does indeed get a fair share of targets, he could be the TE sleeper of the year. He finished TE9 in 2009 on 98 targets. I'll need some confirmation of his involvement in Haley's offense, but if that's true, an Olsen/Miller TE combo might look pretty solid at the end of the year while looking pretty flimsy right now to the casual observer.

I wouldn't touch him, he wasn't getting enough looks the last few years when they passed all the time, now Haley comes in and they are going to run more.

Moeaki (22nd round) - Pretty impressive rookie year, then missed all of last year with a torn ACL in August or September. If he can get 5 targets a game again (or more) then he should be serviceable and easily outproduce his TE26 ADP (finished TE20 in 15 games as a rookie). They did bring in Kevin Boss, though.

Love the value, but will he ever stay healthy.

Honorable mention: Dennis Pitta (not on ADP list) - if he should somehow wrestle the starting TE job away from Dickson, he could be a great steal. He caught 71.4% of his targets last year compared to Dickson's 60.7% while slightly edging him out in ypr. Dickson saw 89 target while Pitta only got 56. Pitta won't be rostered in most leagues to start the season, but should he get 80-100 targets, he'll be in some starting lineups by season's end.

Again, let me know who I'm overlooking or why I'm wrong about the guys above. I'm pretty sure I'll be ignoring the TE position before round 10 like it is 2005 all over again.
 
I totally agree on Heath Miller. The steelers o-line should be much improved, which should free him up to run more routes. He's not as old as you might think (29), and can't really be featured less than he was the last couple years. I think he gets something like 60/720/5.

 
Tamme & Olsen

I expect Tamme to catch 70+ balls.

I expect Olsen to be the breakout receiver in Carolina (not Gettis/LaFell). Olsen + Shockey was a very good TE last year....I don't expect whomever replaces Shockey to approach his 2011 #'s. I'd be stunned if Olsen wasn't a Top 12 TE. I think he's got Top 5 upside there this year.

 
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I like Celek a lot this year. Last year, when the Eagles were figuring out their offensive line for the first 5 or 6 weeks, he had to stay back and help block. But once they finally got Peters-Mathis-Kelce-Watkins-Herremans down, he was able to be much more involved in the passing attack. He was also dealing with some injuries. He won't be Gronk, but if you can wait till the 10th round or so, he's a great value.

 
I like Celek a lot this year. Last year, when the Eagles were figuring out their offensive line for the first 5 or 6 weeks, he had to stay back and help block. But once they finally got Peters-Mathis-Kelce-Watkins-Herremans down, he was able to be much more involved in the passing attack. He was also dealing with some injuries. He won't be Gronk, but if you can wait till the 10th round or so, he's a great value.
If this is true, then Celek is on my don't draft list. Isn't Peters done for the year?
 
I guess Bennett could turn it around in NY, but I wouldnt hold my breath. The guy showed flashes, but never quite got it. Lots of mental mistakes, drops, etc...... Might be worth a late round flier in deep leagues. No thanks

I like Gresham and F.Davis a little later. Lots of upside.

But, in ppr I might pull the trigger on Witten at his current ADP. IMO, he will benefit from Dez stepping it up, a healthy Austin, and a solid running game, taking the pressure off him. Witten has made a career of finding the soft spot in the middle and he'll continue to do that. I think Romo showed some maturity in taking care of the rock last year. If that approach continues, Witten will be a 1st down machine.

 
A guy waaay below the radar, Kellen Davis.
I'm surprised he's going unnoticed, I think he can put up high TE2 numbers if Cutler is healthy.
As a Bears fan, I'm surprised he's even getting mentioned. He's outside my top 24 TE's...well past the point of TE's that belong on wire.Bears now have 2 big WR's (so it's gonna damper him as the primary RZ guy). He's never going to catch a lot of passes (if he ever surpasses 40 catches, I'll be stunned)Just a lot of offseason fluff surrounding him with Tice joining staff IMO. I expect more 3-4 sets (I think Hester will be a more valuable WR asset in a much more limited role)
 
I love Fred Davis this season..56 catches while playing part time last year.

if it's true that a TE is a rookie QB's best friend, then RG3 now has his outlet..

Garcon will stretch the field..Davis,last 7 games of 2011 avg'd 6/64 per game..now if he could just add some TD's to these stats..Shanahan has always used the TE position, and I think this year could be something special for Davis and he's my top pick to be that guy that comes out of nowhere to have a top 3 season, ala Jimmy Graham 2011..

I like the calls on Gresham, it could be a breakout year for him..

I'm not high on Celek, the guy is always hurt,seems like fool's gold to me

Bennett is a good blocking TE something the Giants will need to help bolster a somewhat weak o-line..can't see Bennett making much of an impact as a pass-catching TE..

I like the calls on Hernandez, he's probably the golden ticket in 2012 - Gronk's value will most definitely take a hit as defenses will focus on stopping him..( I'm also not so sure that a surgically repaired ankle on an athletically gifted 265lb TE can or will hold up for an entire 16-game schedule , in other words, I think he has problems staying healthy)

one of the TE's in Indy - Fleener or Allen - will make an immediate impact..

 
I like Celek a lot this year. Last year, when the Eagles were figuring out their offensive line for the first 5 or 6 weeks, he had to stay back and help block. But once they finally got Peters-Mathis-Kelce-Watkins-Herremans down, he was able to be much more involved in the passing attack. He was also dealing with some injuries. He won't be Gronk, but if you can wait till the 10th round or so, he's a great value.
If this is true, then Celek is on my don't draft list. Isn't Peters done for the year?
Yes. From BleacherReport:
Last season, Philadelphia's offensive line featured two inexperienced players in the middle. The Eagles need them to play at a high level in 2012.

Center Jason Kelce and right guard Danny Watkins will both be entering their second season in the league.

NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal reported this offseason that tackle Jason Peters suffered an Achilles injury for the second time in his career, forcing the Eagles to look for a replacement for their All-Pro tackle.

Since Peters needs to recover if he hopes to play again, the team signed Demetress Bell to a five-year deal, according to Philly.com's Jeff McLane

Bell, Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans are all experienced, so the Eagles offense will rely heavily on this trio to lead the line.

In passing situations, the OL needs to be able to give Vick enough time when he drops back. Although Vick has incredible speed and can escape pressure, the franchise quarterback still depends on the offensive line to help him avoid injuries.

The running game was important to Philadelphia's success in 2011, so LeSean McCoy will need a healthy offensive line to continue to be one of the best running backs in the NFL.

It will be tough to replace Peters, but the Eagles still have one of the best offensive lines in the league.
This was a good point from awful waffle. Celek averaged 4.2 targets/game in the first five games and 7.0 t/g for the rest of the season. It sounds like the whole line was in flux last year, but this year they just have to learn to live w/o Peters. I still feel ok about Celek. Even if he only gets 6 t/g he should be a solid fantasy contributor.
 
Love Fred Davis and Greg Olsen at their prices; those two are probably my top TE targets. Like Gresham and Tamme, and will be watching Pettigrew in camp to see if he has a chance to become more than just a guy who gets by solely on volume of opportunity.

I'm cautious on Celek since his usage in two years of Vick has been really inconsistent, though the stretch run last year was great. I'd probably hedge him with a second cheap TE like Olsen or Keller in case of disaster.

 
'BallsySmurf said:
If you miss out on the top 3, I feel Daniels is the guy to target first. Olsen would be next on my list. As far as Hernandez goes, I don't think anyone should worry about taking him 4th, or even 3rd as far TE's go. Brady threw 611 times last season. They didn't bring McDaniels back and sign Lloyd so Brady can throw 500 times. I think he'll get up to at least 650 attempts this year. That's plenty of balls to go around. Give Welker 150, Gronk 120, Lloyd 120. That's 390 targets. Where are the other 260 gonna go? I like the fear with Hernandez this year. I agree that he could beat Gronk across the board as well...
:goodposting: Daniels value last year went in the toliet once Schaub went down. Olsen I think will be a big beneficiary of defenses trying to stop Newton near the goalline.....so I can see Olsen getting a few more TDs this year.I also like Gresham at his current price. There is actually a lot of decent options at TE once you get past Gronk/Graham/Hearnandez/Gates/VDavis. So I would draft 2 TEs with upside as late as possible if I miss out on the top 5 guys.Reading this thread, I am starting to think that passing on Gronkowski/Graham in the late 1st early 2nd round is a more viable strategy.
 
Tamme & OlsenI expect Tamme to catch 70+ balls.I expect Olsen to be the breakout receiver in Carolina (not Gettis/LaFell). Olsen + Shockey was a very good TE last year....I don't expect whomever replaces Shockey to approach his 2011 #'s. I'd be stunned if Olsen wasn't a Top 12 TE. I think he's got Top 5 upside there this year.
I've seen several posts about Tamme being a good fantasy target this year. Where does this come from? I know he had a sick stretch in 2010 when Manning was throwing the ball more than any other time in his career and he was the only healthy TE in a TE friendly system, but from a career perspective, he is not nearly as good as Dreessen.
Code:
targ rec  ypr TD 137  92  9.3  5 167 110 12.4 13
As I plan to avoid both, I'm not trying to argue that Tamme won't be the TE1 for that team (although I seriously question it), but just saying that it is highly doubtful that he runs away with the job and gets 80-90% of the TE targets. I'd say the probability of him seeing 70 rec is slightly less than the probability of Dreessen getting a season ending injury in week 1.As an aside, now that I look at those numbers, I think Dreessen would be a great value pick in an all play league but I doubt either see enough targets to be a weekly starter in a normal league.
 
'Saint said:
Interesting thread. I like the idea and discussion. Rudolph flashed some great ability last year, but the signing of Carlson has made me intrigued to see the direction MIN is going. Assuming ADP isn't ready early the season and they slowly ease him in, I am wondering if MIN is looking at how NE and DET used double TE sets in their passing game to establish momentum. I can definitely see MIN considering some of this approach, especially with no deep threat at this point. My concern is I don't know which one is going to emerge as the primary TE here (Rudolph or Carlson).
Carlson's numbers have steadily decreased each year since entering the league in 2008.He's just a body. Rudolph has much more upside to his game, imo.
 
To the poster that said vick doesn't like throwing to his Tight ends, where are you getting that info? Vick has almost always leaned on his TE (yearly team rankings when Vick started more than half the games):

2002 - Alge Crumpler 2nd in Yards and Tds (455/5)

2004 - Alge Crumpler 1st in Yards and Tds (774/6)

2005 - Alge Crumpler 1st in Yards and Tds (877/5)

2006 - Alge Crumpler 1st in Yards and TDs (780/8)

2010 - Brent Celek 5th in Yards 2nd in TDs (511/4) (McCoy 2nd in Yardage)

2011 - Brent Celek 3rd in Yards 1st in Tds (811/5) (McCoy 1st in Yardage)

Other than his first year starting and in 2010, he has leaned quite heavily on his TE. And even in those 2 other years, the TE had respectable totals (455/5 and 511/4). Heck, back in 2002, that total was still good for TE11, and probably about TE8 with the 5 TDs.

I like Celek this year.

 
I think Pettigrew has pretty good value where he falls in drafts. The Lions are gonna pass alot. The guy is young. I believe its his 3rd year.

 
Tamme & Olsen

I expect Tamme to catch 70+ balls.

I expect Olsen to be the breakout receiver in Carolina (not Gettis/LaFell). Olsen + Shockey was a very good TE last year....I don't expect whomever replaces Shockey to approach his 2011 #'s. I'd be stunned if Olsen wasn't a Top 12 TE. I think he's got Top 5 upside there this year.
I've seen several posts about Tamme being a good fantasy target this year. Where does this come from? I know he had a sick stretch in 2010 when Manning was throwing the ball more than any other time in his career and he was the only healthy TE in a TE friendly system, but from a career perspective, he is not nearly as good as Dreessen.
targ rec ypr TD 137 92 9.3 5 167 110 12.4 13As I plan to avoid both, I'm not trying to argue that Tamme won't be the TE1 for that team (although I seriously question it), but just saying that it is highly doubtful that he runs away with the job and gets 80-90% of the TE targets. I'd say the probability of him seeing 70 rec is slightly less than the probability of Dreessen getting a season ending injury in week 1.As an aside, now that I look at those numbers, I think Dreessen would be a great value pick in an all play league but I doubt either see enough targets to be a weekly starter in a normal league.
his previous rapport with Peyton. Its really all he needs. Plus he signed on right after Peyton did. You think they brought Tamme in because he can block? That season Tamme had with Peyton was like getting Dallas Clark off waivers.

I have a feeling tamme and even stokley might produce nicely this season just based on the familiarity with Peyton. The offense will be taylored to what Peyton wants to do.

I dont see Dressen as a threat to Tamme, at all

 
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Still generating my thoughts, but based off early review and what I'm seeing on ADP's

-Hernandez and Vernon are a bit too early, but if either slip to the 6th I'm in

-I like Gates and Finley more than Witten, so if either slips into the 7th I'm in

-Tamme is the next target, I'll probably reach a bit and take him round 9

It depends on league depth, but if I roster a backup TE I'm looking at Rudolph in round 11. Probably go backup-less if I get Hernandez, Vernon, or Finley but if I have Gates or Tamme I'll be looking for some high upside insurance. I don't want a decent backup because in a pinch a decent replacement can be found on waivers. TE is deep.

 
A guy waaay below the radar, Kellen Davis.
I'm surprised he's going unnoticed, I think he can put up high TE2 numbers if Cutler is healthy.
As a Bears fan, I'm surprised he's even getting mentioned. He's outside my top 24 TE's...well past the point of TE's that belong on wire.Bears now have 2 big WR's (so it's gonna damper him as the primary RZ guy). He's never going to catch a lot of passes (if he ever surpasses 40 catches, I'll be stunned)Just a lot of offseason fluff surrounding him with Tice joining staff IMO. I expect more 3-4 sets (I think Hester will be a more valuable WR asset in a much more limited role)
It could be fluff but the Bears gave him decent money for a TE ($6M/2yrs) to return instead of signing somewhere else. I don't think he re-signed with the expectation of primarily being a blocker again. The first year Cutler was QB in Chicago (prior to Martz) he threw 88 passes to TE's. That shouldn't happen again but I won't be surprised if he's the 3rd leading receiver for the Bears with about 50 catches.
 
Tamme & Olsen

I expect Tamme to catch 70+ balls.

I expect Olsen to be the breakout receiver in Carolina (not Gettis/LaFell). Olsen + Shockey was a very good TE last year....I don't expect whomever replaces Shockey to approach his 2011 #'s. I'd be stunned if Olsen wasn't a Top 12 TE. I think he's got Top 5 upside there this year.
I've seen several posts about Tamme being a good fantasy target this year. Where does this come from? I know he had a sick stretch in 2010 when Manning was throwing the ball more than any other time in his career and he was the only healthy TE in a TE friendly system, but from a career perspective, he is not nearly as good as Dreessen.
targ rec ypr TD 137 92 9.3 5 167 110 12.4 13As I plan to avoid both, I'm not trying to argue that Tamme won't be the TE1 for that team (although I seriously question it), but just saying that it is highly doubtful that he runs away with the job and gets 80-90% of the TE targets. I'd say the probability of him seeing 70 rec is slightly less than the probability of Dreessen getting a season ending injury in week 1.As an aside, now that I look at those numbers, I think Dreessen would be a great value pick in an all play league but I doubt either see enough targets to be a weekly starter in a normal league.
his previous rapport with Peyton. Its really all he needs. Plus he signed on right after Peyton did. You think they brought Tamme in because he can block? That season Tamme had with Peyton was like getting Dallas Clark off waivers.

I have a feeling tamme and even stokley might produce nicely this season just based on the familiarity with Peyton. The offense will be taylored to what Peyton wants to do.

I dont see Dressen as a threat to Tamme, at all
I don't think anyone sees Dreessen as a threat to Tamme, but they should. People are really putting too much weight on that previous rapport. If Tamme was that talented, he'd have been on the field already. He had ZERO targets in 2010 before Clark got hurt. They used to use Marcus Pollard and Clark together so it's not like they were opposed to using two TEs. I don't doubt Tamme signed to be back with Peyton, but I think Dreessen is likely the better TE and it will be hard for them to justify keeping him off the field. Out of 680 attempts, Peyton threw to his TEs 160 times in 2010. Scale that back to 580 attempts (which is much more realistic) and you're looking at 136 targets. I think Dreessen sees at least 1/3 of them if he doesn't win the TE1 job in training camp. Either way, the TE1 is probably only looking at 90 targets or so. It's worth noting that Dreessen and Tamme were signed to very similar contracts (3 yrs $8.5m vs. $9.0m).

It'll be interesting to see how training camp plays out, but it would be prudent to temper expectations for Tamme in the meantime.

 
I like Celek a lot this year. Last year, when the Eagles were figuring out their offensive line for the first 5 or 6 weeks, he had to stay back and help block. But once they finally got Peters-Mathis-Kelce-Watkins-Herremans down, he was able to be much more involved in the passing attack. He was also dealing with some injuries. He won't be Gronk, but if you can wait till the 10th round or so, he's a great value.
If this is true, then Celek is on my don't draft list. Isn't Peters done for the year?
Yeah, but Celek on the line helping out was more because they didn't have a lineup set as opposed to having no talent. They were moving pieces around trying to get something that worked. Bell isn't Peters, but he should be good enough where Celek can leave the line. They still have a really good O-Line this year.
 
Tamme & Olsen

I expect Tamme to catch 70+ balls.

I expect Olsen to be the breakout receiver in Carolina (not Gettis/LaFell). Olsen + Shockey was a very good TE last year....I don't expect whomever replaces Shockey to approach his 2011 #'s. I'd be stunned if Olsen wasn't a Top 12 TE. I think he's got Top 5 upside there this year.
I've seen several posts about Tamme being a good fantasy target this year. Where does this come from? I know he had a sick stretch in 2010 when Manning was throwing the ball more than any other time in his career and he was the only healthy TE in a TE friendly system, but from a career perspective, he is not nearly as good as Dreessen.
targ rec ypr TD 137 92 9.3 5 167 110 12.4 13As I plan to avoid both, I'm not trying to argue that Tamme won't be the TE1 for that team (although I seriously question it), but just saying that it is highly doubtful that he runs away with the job and gets 80-90% of the TE targets. I'd say the probability of him seeing 70 rec is slightly less than the probability of Dreessen getting a season ending injury in week 1.As an aside, now that I look at those numbers, I think Dreessen would be a great value pick in an all play league but I doubt either see enough targets to be a weekly starter in a normal league.
his previous rapport with Peyton. Its really all he needs. Plus he signed on right after Peyton did. You think they brought Tamme in because he can block? That season Tamme had with Peyton was like getting Dallas Clark off waivers.

I have a feeling tamme and even stokley might produce nicely this season just based on the familiarity with Peyton. The offense will be taylored to what Peyton wants to do.

I dont see Dressen as a threat to Tamme, at all
I don't think anyone sees Dreessen as a threat to Tamme, but they should. People are really putting too much weight on that previous rapport. If Tamme was that talented, he'd have been on the field already. He had ZERO targets in 2010 before Clark got hurt. They used to use Marcus Pollard and Clark together so it's not like they were opposed to using two TEs. I don't doubt Tamme signed to be back with Peyton, but I think Dreessen is likely the better TE and it will be hard for them to justify keeping him off the field. Out of 680 attempts, Peyton threw to his TEs 160 times in 2010. Scale that back to 580 attempts (which is much more realistic) and you're looking at 136 targets. I think Dreessen sees at least 1/3 of them if he doesn't win the TE1 job in training camp. Either way, the TE1 is probably only looking at 90 targets or so. It's worth noting that Dreessen and Tamme were signed to very similar contracts (3 yrs $8.5m vs. $9.0m).

It'll be interesting to see how training camp plays out, but it would be prudent to temper expectations for Tamme in the meantime.
I dont recall Dressen even being rosterable in deep dynasty leagues let alone re-drafts. Tamme is going back to Peyton without Dallas Clark in tow, I'd place my bets there.

 
Dreesen was brought in to block because they have to keep Peyton upright. He's not an offensive threat. He'll see a few targets because he's on the field, but he's not a reason Tamme will see less touches. Tamme will have plays designed for him and will get his. I just don't want to put all of my chips in just in case I get sniped on him by a 1/2 round so if I see a guy before he's up I'm taking them. I won't hesitate to take Tamme too though.

 
If there's a breakout candidate late it's Gresham. I expect similar stats from him and someone like Fred Davis. I would definitely take him above Celek and Pettigrew.

 
Dreesen was brought in to block because they have to keep Peyton upright. He's not an offensive threat. He'll see a few targets because he's on the field, but he's not a reason Tamme will see less touches. Tamme will have plays designed for him and will get his. I just don't want to put all of my chips in just in case I get sniped on him by a 1/2 round so if I see a guy before he's up I'm taking them. I won't hesitate to take Tamme too though.
Where do you get your information? Maybe you are well read on Tamme and Dreessen but it sounds like you are just making stuff up. I'm certainly no authority on the subject, but I sure didn't get the impression that Dreessen was a blocking specialist. He seemed much more like a receiving TE in Houston.Tamme seems like a JAG who lucked into a nice situation at the end of 2010 - not a guy who will have plays designed for him. With Dreessen averaging over 3 ypr more, I think he is a reason why Tamme would see less touches. If anything, maybe Tamme is the blocking TE. I see he played every single game in 2010 but didn't receive a single target until Clark got hurt.

As for BSS, perhaps Dreessen hasn't been rostered on any dynasty leagues, but maybe he should have. Despite being the backup TE in Houston he has finished TE18 and TE23 the last two years, so people have likely had much worse TEs on their rosters as their backup TE. But I'm not sure being rostered in a dynasty league is the best indicator of how he will fare when competing against another backup TE for a starting job.

Either way, this thread was designed to make a strong case for or against players and I've stated mine. I'll gladly consider Tamme if anyone can provide any real argument for him other than rapport with Manning. Is there a reason why his ypr is so low? What kind of prospect was he coming out of college? Is Dreessen actually a blocking TE or was that fiction stated as fact?

 

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