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2013 Dynasty Draft Class: Pick 'em (1 Viewer)

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Looking ahead 5- 10 years - pick a 2013 NFL Draft prospect for each of the following 3 categories:



Best (Most valuable in a vacuum)

Surprise (Most valuable relative to ADP)

Bust (Least valuable relative to ADP)

 
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UKColt

Footballguy
Best: DeAndre Hopkins

Surprise: Da'Rick Rogers

Bust: Justin Hunter

 
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MAC_32

Footballguy
Best - Austin

Surprise - Denard

Bust - I can't pick one over the other so I'll just say both Bell and Manuel

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
Not one of my three names have been mentioned yet, so this should prove once and for all I know nothing:

Best: Tyler Eifert

Surprise: Charles Johnson

Bust: Keenan Allen

 

EBF

Footballguy
Looking ahead 5- 10 years - pick a 2013 NFL Draft prospect for each of the following 3 categories:



Best (Most valuable in a vacuum)

Surprise (Most valuable relative to ADP)

Bust (Least valuable relative to ADP)
Best - ???

Surprise - Chris Harper // Josh Boyce // Gavin Escobar

Bust - Johnathan Franklin // LeVeon Bell

I honestly have no clue who will end up becoming the most valuable. This class is full of flawed guys at WR/RB with big upside.

 

doowain

Footballguy
Best: Gio Bernard

Surprise: Tyler Wilson / Denard Robinson / Da'Rick Rogers

Bust: Montee Ball

 
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Dolt_Cretin

Footballguy
Best (Most valuable in a vacuum) - Austin (assuming PPR)

Surprise (Most valuable relative to ADP) - Da Rick Rogers

Bust (Least valuable relative to ADP) - Zac Stacy

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Best: depending on scoring system. In standard, Ball. In PPR or WR-heavy, Austin. In TE-heavy leagues, Eifert.

Surprise: Based on my own rankings and who I'm highest on relative to consensus, Jake Reed and Knile Davis.

Bust: Based again on where my rankings differ from the consensus, Johnathan Franklin, Zac Stacy, and Quinton Patton. As a bonus, I think the guys taking Lacy in the top 3 are going to really regret it. Also, I have Patterson ranked high because you have to respect his upside, but his bust risk is insane for a near-consensus top-3 guy.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
As a bonus, I think the guys taking Lacy in the top 3 are going to really regret it. Also, I have Patterson ranked high because you have to respect his upside, but his bust risk is insane for a near-consensus top-3 guy.
I am curious about your thoughts on Lacy. Your rookie rankings and general rookie ranking philosophy are very close to my own. I wonder what finds us at the opposite side of the Lacy divide.

And I don’t want to turn this into a Lacy thread, but your quick thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
As a bonus, I think the guys taking Lacy in the top 3 are going to really regret it. Also, I have Patterson ranked high because you have to respect his upside, but his bust risk is insane for a near-consensus top-3 guy.
I am curious about your thoughts on Lacy. Your rookie rankings and general rookie ranking philosophy are very close to my own. I wonder what finds us at the opposite side of the Lacy divide. And I dont want to turn this into a Lacy thread, but your quick thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks.
Draft position (4th RB off the board, grabbed by a GB team that had already passed on him in the second by trading down) backed up by a highly-rated 4th rounder (who Green Bay traded up to get), going to a team that hasn't had a hundred yard rusher in years and who loves running their QB at the goal line. I know Lacy can run the ball, but I'm extremely worried about his red flags- character concerns have sunk many talented players, and if his toe really has been fused, that's potentially a huge, huge deal (and likely the reason he almost fell out of the second round entirely.)He's certainly got the upside to make me look foolish, but there is so much risk in his profile his bust chance has to be significantly elevated.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Draft position (4th RB off the board, grabbed by a GB team that had already passed on him in the second by trading down) backed up by a highly-rated 4th rounder (who Green Bay traded up to get), going to a team that hasn't had a hundred yard rusher in years and who loves running their QB at the goal line. I know Lacy can run the ball, but I'm extremely worried about his red flags- character concerns have sunk many talented players, and if his toe really has been fused, that's potentially a huge, huge deal (and likely the reason he almost fell out of the second round entirely.)

He's certainly got the upside to make me look foolish, but there is so much risk in his profile his bust chance has to be significantly elevated.
Thanks for sharing. The toe is a concern, as some teams took him off their board. But said teams have the option of hundreds of players across 22+ positions – I’m looking at a much smaller pool of 4 positions and with strict, specific production in mind. I’m looking at the upside that caused the Packers to take him despite the reports of his toe, and seeing what he did at Bama as a senior after his toe surgery.

I will say that I think the fact that Green Bay traded up is being misused. Think of it this way: GB had the 12th pick in the 4th round and passed. Then they had the 25th pick in the 4th round and passed. They had extra picks and didn’t know if Franklin would fall, so they used a 6th rounder to move up and get him. But they had two other chances to take him in the 4th round without trading up and didn’t.

I don’t expect back-and-fourth. But thanks for your thoughts!

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Thanks for sharing. The toe is a concern, as some teams took him off their board. But said teams have the option of hundreds of players across 22+ positions – I’m looking at a much smaller pool of 4 positions and with strict, specific production in mind. I’m looking at the upside that caused the Packers to take him despite the reports of his toe, and seeing what he did at Bama as a senior after his toe surgery.
Sure, he's got huge upside, and he absolutely deserves to be a 1st rounder in every league. I'm just pointing out that "fused toe", "barely a 2nd rounder", "fourth player taken at his position", and "taken off the board entirely by several teams" are phrases that are not traditionally associated with top 3 rookie picks. Neither, for that matter, is "46 career receptions". In a field full of flawed prospects, the risk profile of a guy like Lacy or Patterson really stands out from the pack. Both guys are huge risks.
 

Steelers22

Footballguy
Best: Tavon Austin (Best talent in the class by a long shot IMO)

Surprise: Stedman Bailey

Bust: Patterson (really don't think he's ever going to develop) and Bernard (screams committee back to me)

 

thriftyrocker

Footballguy
I'm just pointing out that "fused toe", "barely a 2nd rounder", "fourth player taken at his position", and "taken off the board entirely by several teams" are phrases that are not traditionally associated with top 3 rookie picks. Neither, for that matter, is "46 career receptions". In a field full of flawed prospects, the risk profile of a guy like Lacy or Patterson really stands out from the pack. Both guys are huge risks.
Neither is "5'8" WR" or "4.66 40." Everyone is a risk this year pick your poison. Did you have Ball ahead of Lacy pre-draft.

 

Donnybrook

Footballguy
Thanks for sharing. The toe is a concern, as some teams took him off their board. But said teams have the option of hundreds of players across 22+ positions – I’m looking at a much smaller pool of 4 positions and with strict, specific production in mind. I’m looking at the upside that caused the Packers to take him despite the reports of his toe, and seeing what he did at Bama as a senior after his toe surgery.
Sure, he's got huge upside, and he absolutely deserves to be a 1st rounder in every league. I'm just pointing out that "fused toe", "barely a 2nd rounder", "fourth player taken at his position", and "taken off the board entirely by several teams" are phrases that are not traditionally associated with top 3 rookie picks. Neither, for that matter, is "46 career receptions". In a field full of flawed prospects, the risk profile of a guy like Lacy or Patterson really stands out from the pack. Both guys are huge risks.
Are you saying 46 receptions is not a good total? IMO, 46 receptions is quite high for a college back especially one that was splitting time. Tomlinson, for example, came out of TCU with 43 career receptions. Everbody knows that Lacy has good hands.

 
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Shanahanigans

Footballguy
Thanks for sharing. The toe is a concern, as some teams took him off their board. But said teams have the option of hundreds of players across 22+ positions – I’m looking at a much smaller pool of 4 positions and with strict, specific production in mind. I’m looking at the upside that caused the Packers to take him despite the reports of his toe, and seeing what he did at Bama as a senior after his toe surgery.
Sure, he's got huge upside, and he absolutely deserves to be a 1st rounder in every league. I'm just pointing out that "fused toe", "barely a 2nd rounder", "fourth player taken at his position", and "taken off the board entirely by several teams" are phrases that are not traditionally associated with top 3 rookie picks. Neither, for that matter, is "46 career receptions". In a field full of flawed prospects, the risk profile of a guy like Lacy or Patterson really stands out from the pack. Both guys are huge risks.
Are you saying 46 receptions is not a good total? IMO, 46 receptions is quite high for a college back especially one that was splitting time. Tomlinson, for example, came out of TCU with 43 career receptions. Everbody knows that Lacy has good hands.
He's talking about Cordy Patterson the future cough::bust::cough

 

Donnybrook

Footballguy
Thanks for sharing. The toe is a concern, as some teams took him off their board. But said teams have the option of hundreds of players across 22+ positions – I’m looking at a much smaller pool of 4 positions and with strict, specific production in mind. I’m looking at the upside that caused the Packers to take him despite the reports of his toe, and seeing what he did at Bama as a senior after his toe surgery.
Sure, he's got huge upside, and he absolutely deserves to be a 1st rounder in every league. I'm just pointing out that "fused toe", "barely a 2nd rounder", "fourth player taken at his position", and "taken off the board entirely by several teams" are phrases that are not traditionally associated with top 3 rookie picks. Neither, for that matter, is "46 career receptions". In a field full of flawed prospects, the risk profile of a guy like Lacy or Patterson really stands out from the pack. Both guys are huge risks.
Are you saying 46 receptions is not a good total? IMO, 46 receptions is quite high for a college back especially one that was splitting time. Tomlinson, for example, came out of TCU with 43 career receptions. Everbody knows that Lacy has good hands.
He's talking about Cordy Patterson the future cough::bust::cough
Thank you, I stand corrected. Yes Patterson will be a bust. Don't draft him. :-)

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
thriftyrocker said:
I'm just pointing out that "fused toe", "barely a 2nd rounder", "fourth player taken at his position", and "taken off the board entirely by several teams" are phrases that are not traditionally associated with top 3 rookie picks. Neither, for that matter, is "46 career receptions". In a field full of flawed prospects, the risk profile of a guy like Lacy or Patterson really stands out from the pack. Both guys are huge risks.
Neither is "5'8" WR" or "4.66 40." Everyone is a risk this year pick your poison. Did you have Ball ahead of Lacy pre-draft.
Yeah, Austin is also riskier than most top picks simply due to the complete lack of historical comps, although that risk is hugely mitigated by the amount of draft capital St. Louis spent to acquire him (meaning he was evaluated as elite, and meaning they'll give him a lot of opportunities to succeed). That alone leaves him with a much lower risk profile than Lacy. I don't know if 4.66 40 speed makes an RB a bigger risk than his peers. It definitely affects draft position, but if you control for draft position, I don't know if a slower 40 correlates to a larger bust risk. Is a back with a 4.6 40 who gets taken with pick #60 more likely to bust than a back with a 4.4 40 who gets taken with pick #60? I don't know, although I suspect wdcrob might. Obviously the slow speed is a negative, but just as obviously the slow RB has plenty of other advantages to get drafted in the same place as the fast RB. Plenty of RBs have succeeded at the NFL level with slow 40 times- I'm sure I don't need to run down the list. I didn't have Ball ahead of Lacy pre-draft. I don't really do formal rookie rankings before the NFL draft, because I don't scout college enough to come up with anything remotely educated. A large variable in my rankings is draft position, which I use as a proxy for talent under the assumption that the NFL draft is a relatively efficient marketplace. I do believe that Ball is a significantly less risky investment than Lacy.
 

mronayne

Footballguy
Best (5 years) Marcus Lattimore (10 years) Tyler Wilson

Surprise (relative to ADP) Marquess Wilson

Bust (again relative to ADP) Eddie Lacy

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Best (5 years) Marcus Lattimore (10 years) Tyler WilsonSurprise (relative to ADP) Marquess WilsonBust (again relative to ADP) Eddie Lacy
I'm very interested in that first one. Do you think Lattimore will fall off hard after 5 years, or that Wilson will come on strong late?
 

mronayne

Footballguy
Definitely not an expert but these are my perceptions.

Why 5 year for Lattimore : I really only expect 3-5 years out of running backs. What I like about him. Lattimore will probably have a year off and the injury keeps getting compared to McGahee (arguably the best running back in college football with a big injury). When Gore is done with the niners (2 years from now is what pundits are saying) Lattimore will have fully recovered and have low wear.

10 year for Tyler Wilson. He is my favorite quarterback in this draft, in a position where generally success=longevity. He seems to me very Drew Brees-ish, mobile, crisp arm. I honestly think he could win that starting job in Oakland this year. It intrigues me that Mallett and Wilson played together and will be interesting to see which of the two have the better career. Wilson looks like he has the earlier opportunity but Mallett is under Brady/Bellichek tutelage.

 

FUBAR

Footballguy
Best: Geno Smith, Marcus Lattimore, Tavon Austin, Tyler Eifert

Surprise: Tyler Wilson, Stepfan Taylor, Charles Johnson, Gavin Escobar

Bust: Ryan Nassib, Eddie Lacy, Justin Hunter, Zach Ertz

Hard to find a TE I'd call a bust as most don't go high enough to be a real bust.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Best: Eifert/Michael

Surprise: Barkley/L Murray/C Johnson+

Bust: Franklin/Patterson/Hunter/Allen

 
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