By Will
Brinson | NFL Writer
Las Vegas sleeps about as often as the NFL. Which is to say, never. So it's no surprise that Vegas put out
2013 NFL season over/under win totals in the middle of May, much like they did last year.
And just like last year, we're going to take a look at the bets and make an over/under selection.
Last year I went 17-12-3 on
my predictions from May, which isn't that shabby all things considered.
Shooting for 20+ wins this year and I'll note any top picks with asterisks.
In case you're new to this (which is actually, um, a good thing I guess), the parentheses beside the
Over and
Under notates the price of the bet. For instance: the Pats over is +115, so you would take home $115 if you bet $100 and won. Conversely, it takes betting $135 to win $100 on the under
Leave your picks and favorite selections in the comments and feel free to
let me know your thoughts on Twitter @WillBrinson.
AFC EastNew England Patriots, 11.5
Over (+115) / Under (-135)
Betting against the Pats to not win 12 games isn't a particularly profitable enterprise. They've got a very nice opening schedule against (at BUF, vs. NYJ, vs. TB) and could likely start out 3-0. Looking over their schedule, I think I like 11 wins on the nose. If I was more confident about the health of
Rob Gronkowski/
Aaron Hernandez and more confident in a patchwork wide receiver corps featuring
Danny Amendola replacing
Wes Welker, I might lean over. But I'm not.
Verdict: UNDER
Miami Dolphins, 7.5
Over (-135) / Under (+115)
Fascinating that the Dolphins win-total bet hasn't changed from last year, huh? That's despite the splashy offseason that featured the addition of
Mike Wallace, Danelle Ellerbe, Phillip Wheeler, Dion Jordan and Jamar Taylor. I'm admittedly bearish on the Fins this season and I don't think they'll start out hot -- after going to Cleveland and Indy, they have to play Atlanta, New Orleans and Baltimore before their Week 6 bye. If they don't get at least two wins before the break it could be a nightmare season. But there's five post-bye wins available. The question is are there six. I'm not entirely confident.
Verdict: UNDER
Buffalo Bills, 6.5
Over (+115) / Under (-135)
It's not unreasonable to hate the Bills over here. This is the Bills we're talking about. The reality is they're a giant unknown because of the quarterback situation. Is EJ Manuel good enough to step in and start from the get-go while also actually winning games? That's a risky proposition. Betting on
Kevin Kolb to come out firing isn't exactly enticing either. I love the CJ Spiller/TJ Graham/Stevie Johnson trio especially with the addition of
Marquise Goodwin and
Robert Woods. That's a ton of SPEED at the skill positions. But the quarterback -- and the defense -- is too much of a question mark for me.
Verdit: UNDER
New York Jets, 6.5
Over (-110) / Under (-110)
The Jets over/under is dramatically different from last season's 8.5 wins and it's easy to see why. They suffered significant losses on defense, including the departure of
Darrelle Revis, and even though New York drafted Geno Smith the cloud of
Mark Sanchez remains. I firmly believe an 8-8 season would warrant Rex Ryan getting Coach of the Year consideration and while it's not out of the question, I'm not a fan of the Jets at all in 2013. Who is?
Verdict: UNDER*
(Perhaps worth noting: no AFC East team went
over their projected win total in 2012. Food for thought if you wonder why I'm
under across the board this season.
AFC NorthPittsburgh Steelers, 9
Over (-120) / Under (Even)
Is Vegas expecting a bounceback for Pittsburgh this year? After a disappointing 8-8 campaign last season, the Steelers drafted Landry Jones ... hoping they won't ever have to play him.
Ben Roethlisberger's nearly-fatal rib injury derailed their season last year. Even with Mike Wallace departing, this offense should improve in the second year under Todd Haley.
Antonio Brown and Emmanual Sanders are capable No. 1 and No. 2 options and Markhus Wheaton could seriously surprise. Le'Veon Bell could get 300 carries as a rookie.
Heath Miller's injury is a big concern, though, as is age on the defense. There's room for another sub-par season here, but I can't bank on a Mike Tomlin team winning eight games two years in a row.
Verdict: OVER
Baltimore Ravens, 8.5
Over (-140) / Under (+120)
WHAT? 8.5 wins for the reigning
Super Bowl champions? Shirley,
you can't be serious. The -140 reduces the profit on this bet and DEN, HOU, GB, PIT before their Week 7 bye is a stinger. But the addition of
Elvis Dumervil,
Arthur Brown, Matt Elam and the return of
Lardarius Webb (not to mention
Terrell Suggs getting healthy) has me on record early saying Baltimore's defense will be better in 2013 than it was last season. I don't think it's a lock but I'm definitely higher on the Ravens than Vegas.
Verdict: OVER*
Cincinnati Bengals, 8.5
Over (+110) / Under (-135)
Cincy's benefited greatly from easy schedules the last two seasons and it's helped
Andy Dalton and Co. get into the playoffs two-straight years. In 2013, things are much different, especially at home. PIT, GB, NE, NYJ, CLE, IND, MIN, BAL is a formidable home schedule. But with a stout defense that features the criminally underrated
Geno Atkins, getting close to double-digit wins shouldn't be out of the question. Getting a plus number on the bet only helps.
Verdict: OVER
Cleveland Browns, 6
Over (-130) / Under (+110)
This is a cushy schedule for Cleveland in 2013 (BUF, DET, KC, JAX, NYJ all stunk last year) and you can't help but wonder if they can make a run at their best season in recent history. Signing
Paul Kruger and drafting Leon McFadden and Barkevious Mingo should make this defense substantially better. It all comes down to
Brandon Weeden. If the, um, young quarterback makes strides in Rob Chudzinski's offense then Cleveland can be dangerous. I'm not totally sold but I'm sold enough to take a gamble on a step forward.
Verdict: OVER
AFC SouthHouston Texans, 10
Over (-130) / Under (+110)
OK, so pencil in another 5-1 record against division opponents like the Texans had last year and we're halfway to hitting this over, even if you might not really love it. Add in at San Diego, at Arizona, home versus Oakland and at Kansas City and we should have seven or eight wins. The Texans then have to win at Baltimore, at San Francisco, versus Seattle, versus St. Louis and versus Denver to pick up another three or four wins and hit over.
Arian Foster's workload is a major concern, even if I love the addition of DeAndre Hopkins across from
Andre Johnson this year.
J.J. Watt leads a dangerous defense again in 2013. I really don't like taking this one but in the AFC South it's hard not to like 10 wins.
Verdict: OVER
Indianapolis Colts, 8.5
Over (even) / Under (-120)
An 11-win season last year saw the Colts try and fill gaps around
Andrew Luck on offense (Gosder Cherilous to shore up the line) and add a ton of new bodies (
Greg Toler,
LaRon Landry,
Erik Walden, Ricky Jean-Francois, Bjoern Werner) on defense. With Luck steering the ship they'll probably challenge for a playoff spot again (thanks AFC South!) but don't discount how lucky they were in 2012. That
was a 7.2 win team based on their Pythagorean expected wins, they had a negative point differential and a negative turnover differential. Regression is due and I don't love their signings this offseason.
Verdict: UNDER*
Tennessee Titans, 6.5
Over (-110) / Under (-110)
It's a make-or-break year for both
Chris Johnson and
Jake Locker after the Titans offseason.
Andy Levitre was signed in free agency and Chance Warmack was a first-round pick. (
Shonn Greene, awkwardly, was also added.) They've got some nice talent on defense including
Jurrell Casey, the super-speedy
Zach Brown and
Derrick Morgan. But big plays were a big problem in 2012 and I'm not sold they'll cure that this year. I'm also not sold Locker can be consistent and accurate enough to make the Titans competitive, even in an extremely weak AFC South. Seven wins is a possibility given a cushy late-season schedule, but not one I'm interested in betting on.
Verdict: UNDER
Jacksonville Jaguars, 5
Over (-130) / Under (+110)
Last year under on 5.5 was a mortal lock and it probably paid off nicely for investors. I don't think the number is quite as attractive this year, especially with their schedule and some of the additions they made in the draft. Luke Joeckel, Jonathan Cyprien, Denard Robinson and Ace Sanders could all be impact players as rookies. Losing
Justin Blackmon for four games hurts in a bad way. Just like with Tennessee, though, it's all on the quarterback. If you believe in
Blaine Gabbert, you should go over. If not, go under.
Verdict: UNDER
AFC WestDenver Broncos, 11.5
Over (+110) / Under (-130)
The highest number in the NFL is reflected by getting a nice profit on the over (just a year from being an absolute steal at 9.5). The same crew returns minus Elvis Dumervil anyway and with Wes Welker as improvement over Brandon Stokely for
Peyton Manning.
Demaryius Thomas and
Eric Decker were a ridiculous wide receiver tandem without him anyway. Drama abounds on their much tougher schedule: a Manning Bowl with Eli, Peyton's return to Indy, Shanny's return to Denver, Welker's return to New England and the home opener in Denver against Baltimore. Remember that Denver was 2-3 and losing badly at half to San Diego before storming an impossible comeback and winning 11-straight (!) games. Against my better judgment, I like them to win big again this year.
Verdict: OVER
San Diego Chargers, 7.5
Over (+115) / Under (-135)
It's a new day in San Diego, with Mike McCoy coaching and Tom Telesco running the front office. I love both choice and they make me hesitate to pick against the Chargers, especially after picking for them for so many years. (What can I say, I'm a sucker.) I'm glad they drafted D.J. Fluker and signed
Max Starks and I hope
Manti Te'o proves me wrong; I think that pick was horrible. Losing
Melvin Ingram is a nightmare and I still see far too many concerns on their offensive line and secondary to believe.
Verdict: UNDER
Kansas City Chiefs, 7
Over (-145) / Under (-125)
No surprise that people appear to love the over here: Andy Reid coming to town and trading for
Alex Smith, drafting Eric Fisher and keeping
Dwayne Bowe/
Branden Albert in the fold is critical. This team already has a ton of talent in place on defense with
Brandon Flowers,
Tamba Hali,
Justin Houston,
Eric Berry and
Derrick Johnson. They also added
Sean Smith and
Mike DeVito.
Jamaal Charles is a top-five NFL running back to watch for me and he should only flourish in Reid's pass-catching friendly system. They've got a friendly schedule and I happen to love the value here.
Verdict: OVER*
Oakland Raiders, 5.5
Over (-120) / Under (-140)
This year's Jaguars pick for me. Lock Oakland in for a top-two selection in the draft next year and either Teddy Bridgewater or Jadaveon Clowney. There's not much they can do about the situation, and Reggie McKenzie is doing the right thing by setting it all on fire and rebuilding from scratch; the only thing worst than a roster totally devoid of talent is a roster totally devoid of talent and also filled with bloated contracts. I can't fathom how they win six games this year unless
Matt Flynn gets beat out by another rookie named Wilson (Tyler Wilson this time) who happens to produce a Rookie of the Year-worthy season and put his team into the playoffs.
Verdict: UNDER
