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Team B then traded Wallace for DeMarco Murray.
There is a joke in there but since this is not the FFA, I will refrain. And I must say I am always amazed how people can come up with these creative multi-players swaps, but I digress.Lot of variables to consider...assuming DMC for Ridley/Vereen is a wash (cue EBF with
) then it is essentially Wilson, Sanders and the 2014 2nd for Floyd and 1.06. I really like Floyd's prospects but with the information provided, I think I would prefer to get the Wilson/Sanders side of the deal (although I would like to see the rosters involved before making a conclusion).
Exactly. If guys like Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne can produce top 10 numbers at age 33/34, no reason to believe Fitz can't. I understand if people want to trade him, but not at discounted pricing. I'd rather hold than sell low on a player of that caliber.'Skeletore Eh said:
Roddy's worth a lot more than the other side on his own.
With having Russel Wilson and Kaepernick on my roster, I was prepared to deal Roethlisberger because I didn't think he'd be my every week starter anymore. I like Rudolph more than I like Vernon Davis, but if Kaepernick & Davis can get on the same page, then I like CK & Davis better than Ponder & Rudolph. I was prepared to give up some in the swap of TEs and draft picks because I really wanted Ray Rice. I don't think there is a big difference between Rice and McFadden, but I couldn't count on McFadden every week because of his injuries. I wanted Daryl Richardson as a lottery ticket incase he gets a chance to replace Steven Jackson.'jwb said:
I don't mean to nitpick but I would love to hear why you don't think there is a big difference between rice and McFadden?
Without contracts you can make a strong case for Wilson/Gordon. With the contracts I think it's a no brainer.
Much prefer the Wilson/Ridley side.
I'm the guy that got Wilson/Gordon. Even though I have Cam Newton I just figured the value was too good to pass up.
I have Miller and Blackmon in a new league, and like them both. That being said, even though I really, really need a RB2, I'd do this trade in a heartbeat. Per usual, give me the best player in the deal.
Can't get on board with the 2014 first.His situation is going to improve nicely in the offseason, I just don't happen to think Brown is good enough for two firsts, even if the 1.11 is relatively weak this year.
Yea, I know I over paid. I needed a #2WR until one of my young guys develops (Randle, Shorts, Moore, Streeter). I am gambling that his value goes up in a year and I will be in a position to trade him.
I'd rather have DMC over Wilson, and Floyd/1.6 over Ridley/Vereen/2014 2nd, so the DMC side for me.Lot of variables to consider...assuming DMC for Ridley/Vereen is a wash (cue EBF with
Not nearly enough for Cruz in my opinion.
I'd probably take Cruz over the package but it seems pretty even IMO. I like Blackmon's potential going forward a lot.
Fixed.
My thing is I think in a year from now, it could be Blackmon who is considered the best player. If I owned Cruz, I would do a deal just like this. Got some nice young weapons as I do like Lamar Miller also.
Really? You're going to need to unpack that one for me a bit, because Ridley alone is MILES more valuable than Floyd/1.06 in my mind. According to the first round of DLF mocks, Ridley is coming off as rb15, 34th overall. Floyd is coming off as wr44, 95th overall. And I'd say the 1.6 in a weak (albeit deep) draft isn't worth much (if anything) more than Floyd.I'd rather have DMC over Wilson, and Floyd/1.6 over Ridley/Vereen/2014 2nd, so the DMC side for me.Lot of variables to consider...assuming DMC for Ridley/Vereen is a wash (cue EBF with
In what format was he a top 12 WR? Or were you referring to being the top WR for the Jags?
When Henne took over, Shorts became a #1 in ppg (he missed 2 games so he wasn't in overall pts), his avg pts per game from week 10-17 was better than AJ Green, Julio, Roddy, VJax. He was pretty darn good even with the emergence of Blackmon.
I don't put as much stock in mock drafts as others, so where they fall there is of little consequence in how I rate players or trades. I put a little more stock on real drafts, but again, not as much as others. A number of better players regularly get drafted below the lesser ones for various reasons. Floyd will likely be one of them. He is one of the more undervalued players imo. I find this interesting given the results of his last game (which I thought would move his perceived value up), but this presents an opportunity to acquire him (I am not heavily invested in him...yet). Ridley is on the opposite end of the spectrum. I prefer Floyd straight up over the Ridley/Vereen duo. Adding the 1.6 is gravy (very good gravy).1.6 not being worth much may be the common view now (I'm not thrilled by the draft class either), but come draft time, that 1.6 will be worth plenty in player and/or trade value.Really? You're going to need to unpack that one for me a bit, because Ridley alone is MILES more valuable than Floyd/1.06 in my mind. According to the first round of DLF mocks, Ridley is coming off as rb15, 34th overall. Floyd is coming off as wr44, 95th overall. And I'd say the 1.6 in a weak (albeit deep) draft isn't worth much (if anything) more than Floyd.I'd rather have DMC over Wilson, and Floyd/1.6 over Ridley/Vereen/2014 2nd, so the DMC side for me.Lot of variables to consider...assuming DMC for Ridley/Vereen is a wash (cue EBF with
I don't put as much stock in mock drafts as others, so where they fall there is of little consequence in my rankings. I put a little more stock on real drafts, but again, not as much as others. A number of better players regularly get drafted below the lesser ones for various reasons. Floyd will likely be one of them. He is one of the more undervalued players imo. Ridley is on the opposite end of the spectrum. I prefer Floyd straight up over the Ridley/Vereen duo. Adding the 1.6 is gravy (very good gravy).Really? You're going to need to unpack that one for me a bit, because Ridley alone is MILES more valuable than Floyd/1.06 in my mind. According to the first round of DLF mocks, Ridley is coming off as rb15, 34th overall. Floyd is coming off as wr44, 95th overall. And I'd say the 1.6 in a weak (albeit deep) draft isn't worth much (if anything) more than Floyd.I'd rather have DMC over Wilson, and Floyd/1.6 over Ridley/Vereen/2014 2nd, so the DMC side for me.Lot of variables to consider...assuming DMC for Ridley/Vereen is a wash (cue EBF with
This reminds me of Doyle Brunson's poker axiom of spreading maximum disinformation.Floyd will certainly get better but couple their QB situation with Fitz being the priority and the fact that he was awful in his rookie year, I just don't see him being worth more than Ridley, whom had a fantastic year and appears to have solidified a workhorse role in a high-powered offense.
Right... was referring to PPG there. From Week 7, when Shorts moved into the starting lineup, until Week 17:Johnson, Calvin DET WR 22.3 Johnson, Andre HOU WR 22.3 Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 21.1 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 19.8 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 19.3 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR 18.1 Cobb, Randall GBP WR 18.0 Decker, Eric DEN WR 17.3 Jones, Julio ATL WR 17.0 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR 16.9 Welker, Wes NEP WR 16.9 Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 16.3
Do you think Floyd becomes a WR1 soon? And when? Because if he doesn't, the NE backfield will get such a head start in points scored it will be hard for Floyd to catch up. The Ridley/Vereen package is very likely to provide a top 12RB each of the next 3 years. And his handcuff, who will hopefully have his own niche, providing points.I can't see much reasoning for taking Floyd over Ridley alone; let alone both.
As Jeter pointed out Shorts upside is much higher. The issue is not Shorts but rather what the Jags do at QB. I am guessing that initially they are committed to Gabbert, which will depress Shorts production, but they will ultimately insert Henne again. Consequently Brown is more certain short term proposition, and I am betting next season goes more like 2011, where Brown finished as WR23. A solid WR2 option.Shorts was a WR2 last year. IMO he'll probably outscore Brown this year.
No disinformation coming from me. I haven’t talked a lot about players here in the past, but now that I am in substantially fewer leagues with FBGers and focusing almost entirely on FFPC and a few other high stakes leagues (few in my remaining leagues frequent this board), I feel more comfortable doing so. But even when I was playing in leagues with many others here, my previous calls/opinions were well represented on my teams (e.g., Demaryius Thomas and CJ Spiller over the last year).I don't put as much stock in mock drafts as others, so where they fall there is of little consequence in my rankings. I put a little more stock on real drafts, but again, not as much as others. A number of better players regularly get drafted below the lesser ones for various reasons. Floyd will likely be one of them. He is one of the more undervalued players imo. Ridley is on the opposite end of the spectrum. I prefer Floyd straight up over the Ridley/Vereen duo. Adding the 1.6 is gravy (very good gravy).Really? You're going to need to unpack that one for me a bit, because Ridley alone is MILES more valuable than Floyd/1.06 in my mind. According to the first round of DLF mocks, Ridley is coming off as rb15, 34th overall. Floyd is coming off as wr44, 95th overall. And I'd say the 1.6 in a weak (albeit deep) draft isn't worth much (if anything) more than Floyd.I'd rather have DMC over Wilson, and Floyd/1.6 over Ridley/Vereen/2014 2nd, so the DMC side for me.Lot of variables to consider...assuming DMC for Ridley/Vereen is a wash (cue EBF with
Ridley had 290 carries this year and scored in 10 of 16 regular season games. I don't know how you can value an unproven wide receiver over a proven top 10 RB. But maybe you've read Brunson as well
Top 10 for the next three years sounds highly optimistic to me, but I play exclusively in PPR. Unless you are playing in best ball leagues, that’s not likely going to happen. Ridley’s upside imo is a RB2 (PPR), and the more Vereen shares in carries, the worse it gets. A Ridley injury could possibly boost the value of the duo, but I’d rather not bank on that nor would I want to invest two roster slots in case of it.As for catching up or not catching up, I know you advocate a career VBD view, but I look more for the upside potential for elite or near-elite scoring over a period of time (even if in the future) vs sustained current but lesser performance, even if the elite-near elite scorer generates a lesser career VBD as a result. I’d much rather invest in a 0, 50, 100, 250, 250, 225 career over a 200, 200, 200, 200, 200, 200 one. In the case of these two/three, I don’t see Ridley ever crossing the 250 barrier in PPR and is more likely a 200 pt player. While 200 points over a number of years may produce good career VBD for a RB (even in PPR), (1) Im not optimistic that Ridley can sustain that production over more than another year, maybe two, and (2) I’d rather invest in the guy that I think can and will clear 250 (Floyd) even if it takes a number of years to get there. So whether or not the Ridley/Vereen duo gets a head start is not relevant to me.
Looking at ADP, I think Ridley is one of the most underrated players in the hobby right now. Floyd could be worth a lot more in 1-2 years than he is right now, or he could not be. Ridley is the cheapest young back coming off a RB1 season you can get. He's not sexy - just as he wasn't in rookie drafts - but he'll score points. And he has games of 98 yards and 97 yards over the 2nd half of the season, which, pro-rated, would have given him 1,100 yards.
He's a pretty average starter. A younger, slightly more explosive Shonn Greene. A lot of things went right for Ridley this season. He stayed healthy for 16 games and logged 295 carries. He played on an explosive offense that scored a lot of points. He had double digit rushing TDs. Even with that being the case, he was a fringe RB1 in most of my leagues and a RB2 when you look at ppg and not just totals. I'd argue that 2012 was pretty close to his ceiling, and it wasn't that great. He's certainly not a bad player, but he's also not a guy that I view as a centerpiece in dynasty. More of complementary RB2 than someone I'd want as my lead dog. I play exclusively in PPR leagues at this point. If you don't catch passes and you aren't Adrian Peterson, it's going to be hard for you to be a difference maker at RB.
I think we're using a lot of subjective info when we don't need to. Ridley has given us a solid sample size and we can look a see what a Ridley-like year did to help people win. Low end RB1 seasons, despite not being that great, are worth a lot more, in most leagues, than low end WR1 seasons. And how many WR1 seasons are we going to project for Floyd? I agree that he is not a special talent, but he is secure in his role and produced well in it. I also agree that he is not a guy I would want to build around as anything more than my RB2 in a PPR league. But I think we just disagree on what value that has. Again, I agree with you, it seems, on his talent level. I wouldn't use Shonn Greene at all, but I get your point. But I wanted to provide another point of view, in terms of his value.'EBF said:
I respect and understand your view point on Ridley, but just wanted to point out that speaking strictly in terms of PPR (which was the basis of EBF's post):(1) Ridley was not a RB1, but was the 15th highest scoring RB in total and the 21st RB in ppg.
Thanks for correcting me on the RB1 comment. But I do disagree about a low-end RB1/WR1 value in relation to each other. There are simply too many Lance Moores and James Joneses that contributed this year (and every year) at WR. The VBD in most leagues weighs value towards the RB, even if points are close, or in the WR's favor. Leagues that require one starter at RB do alter things, but those are in the minority.
why does everybody have to be a difference maker, though? It's almost like you are totally dismissing guys and their value in these trades because they aren't stud, 5-year centerpieces. You did it a few trades up w/ ben and Rudolph, and you're doing it now w/ Ridley. Nobody said he was a dynasty centerpiece / difference maker. He still has decent trade value, and is a useful player. But I don't see where it's helpful to somewhat downgrade that value because he's not a cornerstone player / difference maker.'EBF said:
Possibly (although I think the spread is much smaller given that many more WRs will be in the starting lineup than RBs in most PPR leagues), but a 40 point difference between the WR12 and RB12 is not all that close. That has not always been the case, but I estimate that the spread between WR12 and RB12 will be more similar to this year's spread than prior years (with the shift towards using multiple RBs and the focus on the pass). I also have a different view when it comes to VBD for the league as a whole vs VBD for your typical "good" team. Having an RB2 only matters for a good team, and most good teams already have a good RB2 and even a decent RB3. On a good team (or any team for that matter), I'd definitely prefer the extra 40.
EBF did say Ridley was nice to have and he is. But on many championship teams, only the different makers really matter imo.[Edit to add: Although as I wrote this, I seem to recall that back in the day of Eddie Royal, EBF was praising the virtues of a player that can produce non-difference making but serviceable numbers over a long period of time when others dismissed it. Am I not remembering that correctly?]
...especially when there's a better than average chance that Michael Floyd never becomes "a cornerstone player / difference maker". And I don't say that to disparage Floyd, necessarily, just talking about odds.
By definition, there's only so many "difference makers" to go around. A solid weekly starter can surely help you win a championship.
To be fair, jwb was referring to EBF and EBF did say that he would not take Floyd over Ridley. I would take Floyd over Ridley (apparently in the small minority), but I view the chance that Floyd produces difference making years as being a higher likelihood than you do (vs almost no chance for Ridley in PPR imo). I understand the skepticism though and I could very well be wrong on Ridley.
I'm more or less referring to why Ridley being (or not being) a difference maker even enters into anything.
