What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

2013 Off Season Dynasty Trade Thread (for completed trades) (2 Viewers)

I like Wright a lot more. He may not ever become a WR1, but give me him over Vereen all day. Vereen is looking more and more like one of the most overrated players of the offseason. He's not going to be the three down back in New England. More like the third down back. And while he's a decent player, he's much more Kevin Faulk than Darren Sproles. 4.0 career YPC. Has never busted a 20+ yard run. Has never rushed for 50+ yards in a game. One good playoff game and suddenly people are tripping over themselves to buy. Definitely a great time to pawn him off if you somehow got stuck with him.
He had a 22 yard run this year, and averaged over 4.0 if you include the playoffs. He had an 83 yard recpetion. But I don't think any of this matters for a guy with 62 regular season carries. The sample size is clearly very small. The upside is in his talent. I know you're not high on him, but plenty are, including the Patriots who used a 2nd round pick on the kid. Woodhead had 750 yards, 7 TDs, and 40 receptions last year. Vereen had 400 yards and 4 TDs. I am not projecting 1,150/11 TDs and 50 receptions for him. But that is pretty clear evidence that the Patriots offense can support that production outside of their 2 down back, Ridley. Then there's the potential that he carves into Ridley's touches some.
I think EBF would agree that NE can support two productive backs, but anticipates that the production will come from the two RBs we feel are their best players.
 
I think EBF would agree that NE can support two productive backs, but anticipates that the production will come from the two RBs we feel are their best players.
If I thought one of the best two was Bolden, I'd likely hold off on projecting Woodhead's numbers to him. He's got 2 career receptions for 11 yards. He's a threat to Ridley more than Vereen, in my opinion. If you remove Vereen and Woodhead's receiving yards, you're looking at 450 yards, rather than 1,000+. VERY hard to see two backs rushing for 1,000/10.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think EBF would agree that NE can support two productive backs, but anticipates that the production will come from the two RBs we feel are their best players.
I agree; we likely just disagree on who those two backs are. But if I one of them was Bolden, I'd likely hold off on projecting Woodhead's numbers to him. He's got 2 career receptions for 11 yards. He's a threat to Ridley more than Vereen, in my opinion.
Gun to my head, but if I had to choose who is a better pass catcher of the two, I'd give the nod to Bolden over Vereen. He was a fantastic pass catcher in college, and even lead Mississippi in receptions his junior year.Edit: Actually, I really wouldn't know enough to judge this to compare them and definitively guess; but suffice to say I don't think Vereen has a big edge, if any, in receiving skills.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Gun to my head, but if I had to choose who is a better pass catcher of the two, I'd give the nod to Bolden over Vereen. He was a fantastic pass catcher in college, and even lead Mississippi in receptions his junior year.
Surprising to me. He did have one big year though. But I didn't catch enough Ole' Miss football in 2010 to really have much thoughts on his ability out of the backfield. I do feel very comfortable calling Vereen dangerous and a very good pass catcher.ETA: It is crazy that Ole Miss didn't have a WR with more than 30 catches in 2010, but had a RB with 32.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
In a best case scenario barring injury, Vereen is a middle of the road RB2 in PPR leagues. The more likely outcome is that he's a RB3-RB4. Basically bye week filler. That's not worth the value that he's commanding in a lot of these deals. If you'd asked most people after his first two NFL seasons, they would've said he was more or less a zero. I doubt you could've gotten a 2nd round rookie pick for him in December. Then he scored three TDs in a playoff game and...voila...suddenly he became a trendy sleeper pick overnight.

If you look at guys like Lamar Miller and David Wilson, it at least makes sense why people are willing to give up a lot to get them. Their teams cleared a path for them to potentially get a major workload. There is no such opportunity in New England. Ridley is a better rusher than Vereen and Bolden probably is too. Those guys aren't going anywhere any time soon. Woodhead is gone, but I'm not sure it matters. Even if you take all of his carries and add them to Vereen's total, that's still just 138 carries. Maybe he gets some of Welker's targets, but the lion's share of those probably go to Hernandez, Amendola, and whoever else New England might add in the draft.

So basically you're getting a guy who will probably carry the ball 80-140 times and add 30-50 catches. That sounds familiar...

Hmmmm.....

Faulk was much like Vereen. A 2nd rounder with ho-hum rushing ability who caught some passes and was otherwise left with the table scraps of bigger two down backs like Antowain Smith and Corey Dillon. A part time back can make an impact if he has explosive game breaking abilities, but this isn't Darren Sproles or CJ Spiller we're talking about. Vereen is a pedestrian runner and would only achieve diffence-maker FF value with a massive workload, which he isn't likely to get.

IMO he is a waste of time and roster space in most FF leagues. Unless you're in a really deep league or you have a strong need for a bench option who can get you 8-10 points per week in relief duty, you should send him packing now and try to get something with a bigger ceiling (i.e. a top 15 rookie pick or a top prospect such as Wright).

 
In a best case scenario barring injury, Vereen is a middle of the road RB2 in PPR leagues. The more likely outcome is that he's a RB3-RB4. Basically bye week filler. That's not worth the value that he's commanding in a lot of these deals. If you'd asked most people after his first two NFL seasons, they would've said he was more or less a zero. I doubt you could've gotten a 2nd round rookie pick for him in December. Then he scored three TDs in a playoff game and...voila...suddenly he became a trendy sleeper pick overnight.
I don't think anyone is making roster moves thinking it likely that he is more than an RB2; I think most find that pretty close to his upside. Seems like a bit of a strawman to me, especially considering this deal is at the very high-end, and is a dyansty WR30(ish). If we ignored every RB unlikely to give upper RB2 numbers, we'd sure be missing out on a lot of players. His upside is 250 carries and 50 receptions in one of the best offenses in the league. His upside is being able to carve into Ridley's role, and perhaps take the job. He was drafted ahead of Ridley, in the 2nd round, and is only now healthy and invovled. Let's we what he's got.
If you look at guys like Lamar Miller and David Wilson...
Again, feels like a strawman. Wilson is a 2nd round startup pick, Miller is quickly climbing into the 4th range, and might go higher, now that the coach has talked about him as the starter. We're talking about Kendall Wright here, not a 2nd round startup pick.
Woodhead is gone, but I'm not sure it matters. Even if you take all of his carries and add them to Vereen's total, that's still just 138 carries.
And 1,100 yards with 11 TDs and 50 recpetions. Or 14 Points a game. Or RB1 numbers.
Faulk was much like Vereen. A 2nd rounder with ho-hum rushing ability who caught some passes and was otherwise left with the table scraps of bigger two down backs like Antowain Smith and Corey Dillon.
What does a guy drafted over a decade ago by Pete Carroll have to do with Shane Vereen?Let's use LeSean McCoy. Closer in size and he was also drafted in the 2nd round.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
try to get something with a bigger ceiling (i.e. a top 15 rookie pick or a top prospect such as Wright).
Even if I believed in everything you wrote, it's debatable Wright has a higher ceiling.
He probably doesn't have top 10 upside either, but at least he was a first round talent and at least he has the potential to be on the field every snap for his team. Barring some big surprise, Vereen is never going to be anything more than a committee back. And probably not a great one at that. He doesn't have the wow qualities of a Jamaal Charles, CJ Spiller, or Darren Sproles. Wright is probably worth more to most people right now, even if only by reputation. And my guess is that he'll be worth a lot more in a year once people realize that Vereen is just a spot starter. I guess I could be wrong, but that's my take. Even if I were excited about Vereen's talent, it's tough to see where the carries are going to come from. Ridley has been very steady through two seasons. Bolden had a higher YPC and more long runs on a similar workload. Vereen might be the third best RB on his own team.

 
:link:

I'd give up Blackmon for Lacy in a heartbeat assuming it's a start two RB league.
Lacy? The guy ran behind the best offensive line in college football and cant stay healthy during the off season before even playing a down in the nfl. I'll pass.
Adrian Peterson likely ran behind the best line in football, in his college years. Same with the great Miami trio; Gore, Portis, Willis. That's what happens when you're one of the best prospects in the nation and go to one of the best schools; you have a talent advantage, on average, on a weekly basis. And a hamstring pull? You're passing based on a single hamstring pull?
I'm hearing its a tear. I think that's a pretty good reason to like Blackmon over lacy.
:link:
I think it was on rotoworld but cant tell right now because every time I go to the site it takes me to the nbcsports site which I cant stand.
Found it for you - partial tear....which is a pulled hamstring. Not a hge dealhttp://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/8382/eddie-lacy
 
He probably doesn't have top 10 upside either, but at least he was a first round talent
For fantasy purposes, the pedigree difference between a RB taken 56 and a WR taken 20 is debatable.
He doesn't have the wow qualities of a Jamaal Charles, CJ Spiller, or Darren Sproles.
He's still worth caring about even if he doesn't have that upside. People who are buying him are hoping for Bradshaw.
Ridley has been very steady through two seasons.
Ridley has issues and risk too. Let's not pretend Ridley is a guarantee.
 
What does a guy drafted over a decade ago by Pete Carroll have to do with Shane Vereen?Let's use LeSean McCoy. Closer in size and he was also drafted in the 2nd round.
Faulk played 12 seasons under Bill Belichick. I think he presents a pretty good example of how Belichick might utilize a pass catching third down back. And the numbers aren't too encouraging. He had a good season in 2003, with a career high in carries (178) and over 1000 combined total yards. The reason he got that workload is because Antowain Smith was faltering (3.5 YPC). The Pats brought in Dillon the very next year and Faulk was back to playing caddy. Belichick has coached the Patriots for 13 years. At no point during his tenure has the team ever yielded more than one truly useful FF RB. More often than not, they've struggled just to produce a single viable option. The Smith/Faulk and Dillon/Faulk eras produced the best rushing seasons. The template is pretty clear. A bruising two down specialist paired with a pass catcher. If we assume that Belichick will stay true to this pattern, we can expect something similar going forward, with Ridley/Vereen as the thunder-lightning combo and Bolden as a wild card. Even if I thought Vereen was a standout RB talent, the biggest issue is that there's no clear route to the amount of touches he would need to become viable. Putting that aside, I don't think he's all that good anyway. He's an average physical specimen. He's only carried the ball 77 times in his career. It's a small sample size, but there's nothing in the numbers that excites you. 4.0 YPC and no long runs. When someone is pedestrian on paper and pedestrian on the field, it starts to paint a discouraging picture. The fact that he was a 2nd round pick doesn't count for all that much at this point. 2nd rounders fail more often than they succeed. A few tremendous backs have come out of that round in recent years. McCoy. MJD. Forte. Rice. Portis. The main thing I'd point out about those guys is that every one of them had a top 15 FF season within his first two years in the league. Basically what happened in every case is that the guy made an immediate impact and/or was so impressive that his team cleared a path for him to start in year two. So yes, if you're willing to totally overlook Belichick's history and disregard the fact that no 2nd round RB who wasn't a star by this point in his career has gone on to eventually become one in the past 10+ years, Vereen could be seen as a good buying opportunity. I think the more likely scenario is that he's just a decent change of pace/receiving back who was overdrafted by New England and who will probably be relegated to modest production as a backup/committee back for the rest of his career. When you consider the fact that people are willing to give up equivalent value to a 1st round rookie pick to take that off your hands right now, he's a pretty clear sell. The flukey three TD playoff game on national TV and the "Patriot factor" have blinded a lot of people on this dud. My take anyway.
 
In a best case scenario barring injury, Vereen is a middle of the road RB2 in PPR leagues. The more likely outcome is that he's a RB3-RB4. Basically bye week filler. That's not worth the value that he's commanding in a lot of these deals. If you'd asked most people after his first two NFL seasons, they would've said he was more or less a zero. I doubt you could've gotten a 2nd round rookie pick for him in December. Then he scored three TDs in a playoff game and...voila...suddenly he became a trendy sleeper pick overnight.
I don't think anyone is making roster moves thinking it likely that he is more than an RB2; I think most find that pretty close to his upside. Seems like a bit of a strawman to me, especially considering this deal is at the very high-end, and is a dyansty WR30(ish). If we ignored every RB unlikely to give upper RB2 numbers, we'd sure be missing out on a lot of players. His upside is 250 carries and 50 receptions in one of the best offenses in the league. His upside is being able to carve into Ridley's role, and perhaps take the job. He was drafted ahead of Ridley, in the 2nd round, and is only now healthy and invovled. Let's we what he's got.
He is just frankly not good enough as a ball carrying RB to be given 250 carries. I would be all over him, due to his offense and receiving skills, if he just one of the most basic important things of a RB -- get yards when they hand you the ball. The reason Ridley is getting 290 carries is because he's just much better than him at it; nothing more, nothing less. Frankly, he was the 4th best RB on the team at rushing the ball last year, and merely moving one piece out of them way doesn't make me believe that he can suddenly rush the ball well.
 
Faulk played 12 seasons under Bill Belichick. I think he presents a pretty good example of how Belichick might utilize a pass catching third down back. And the numbers aren't too encouraging. He had a good season in 2003, with a career high in carries (178) and over 1000 combined total yards. Even if I thought Vereen was a standout RB talent, the biggest issue is that there's no clear route to the amount of touches he would need to become viable.
If Vereen added Woodhead's numbers to his own, he would have been a top 12 fantasy back last year. And that takes nothing away from the touches that Ridley or Bolden got.
Putting that aside, I don't think he's all that good anyway. He's an average physical specimen. He's only carried the ball 77 times in his career. It's a small sample size, but there's nothing in the numbers that excites you. 4.0 YPC and no long runs. When someone is pedestrian on paper and pedestrian on the field, it starts to paint a discouraging picture.
You seem to be going out of your way to find criteria to fit your argument, despite the small sample size. I don't understand why a 25 yard run (or lack there of) means more than an 83 yard reception. He has speed, plenty enough to break long runs. His draft position does matter. And there have certainly been fantasy contributers after not producing much in their first 2 seasons. A very long list, actually. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, etc.
 
Faulk played 12 seasons under Bill Belichick. I think he presents a pretty good example of how Belichick might utilize a pass catching third down back. And the numbers aren't too encouraging. He had a good season in 2003, with a career high in carries (178) and over 1000 combined total yards. Even if I thought Vereen was a standout RB talent, the biggest issue is that there's no clear route to the amount of touches he would need to become viable.
If Vereen added Woodhead's numbers to his own, he would have been a top 12 fantasy back last year. And that takes nothing away from the touches that Ridley or Bolden got.
My counterargument would be: 1) Woodhead is much better than Vereen, so its not quite as simple as adding numbers on top of each other; 2) Bolden won't be hurt/suspended this year (hopefully).I.e. -- I doubt Vereen gets all of those touches; some, sure.
 
He is just frankly not good enough as a ball carrying RB to be given 250 carries.
That's quite a claim and I can't put any stock in it. He was a 2nd round pick who got injured at the wrong times. Have you looked at the Goal line stats that suggest Ridley was far and away the least effective goal line back? Do you buy it? I don't. Sample size is so small and no situation is 100% alike. I'd much rather have Ridley running the ball at the GL than Woodhead. But if I used simple stats, as you seem to be, it'd suggest Ridley is a lesser option between the 2.

I would be all over him, due to his offense and receiving skills, if he just one of the most basic important things of a RB -- get yards when they hand you the ball. The reason Ridley is getting 290 carries is because he's just much better than him at it; nothing more, nothing less. Frankly, he was the 4th best RB on the team at rushing the ball last year, and merely moving one piece out of them way doesn't make me believe that he can suddenly rush the ball well.
I assume you are using Bolden's YPC, and suggesting he was better than Vereen? Bolden's inflated YPC comes from a game in which the team ran all over Buffalo. Take out that ONE game and his YPC is 3.42. Context and sample size.

 
My counterargument would be: 1) Woodhead is much better than Vereen, so its not quite as simple as adding numbers on top of each other; 2) Bolden won't be hurt/suspended this year (hopefully).I.e. -- I doubt Vereen gets all of those touches; some, sure.
I understand that, and, as I said, I am not projecting those numbers for him. I am simply pointing out that the offense can support it, even outside of Ridley's nubmers. There is an avenue, even if he can't carve some of the 2 down work from Ridley.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
He is just frankly not good enough as a ball carrying RB to be given 250 carries.
That's quite a claim and I can't put any stock in it. He was a 2nd round pick who got injured at the wrong times. Have you looked at the Goal line stats that suggest Ridley was far and away the least effective goal line back? Do you buy it? I don't. Sample size is so small and no situation is 100% alike. I'd much rather have Ridley running the ball at the GL than Woodhead. But if I used simple stats, as you seem to be, it'd suggest Ridley is a lesser option between the 2.

I would be all over him, due to his offense and receiving skills, if he just one of the most basic important things of a RB -- get yards when they hand you the ball. The reason Ridley is getting 290 carries is because he's just much better than him at it; nothing more, nothing less. Frankly, he was the 4th best RB on the team at rushing the ball last year, and merely moving one piece out of them way doesn't make me believe that he can suddenly rush the ball well.
I assume you are using Bolden's YPC, and suggesting he was better than Vereen? Bolden's inflated YPC comes from a game in which the team ran all over Buffalo. Take out that ONE game and his YPC is 3.42. Context and sample size.
My entire argument comes from watching them play and supplementing with various scouting reports.Vereen doesn't break any tackles, doesn't fall forward, has mediocre change of direction skills, and isn't very strong finding running lanes between the tackles. He's pretty good in space, where he can use his speed as a mismatch.

Bolden is just about the opposite, and is frankly what I look for in RBs. He gets the extra yard, falls forward, has good wiggle (especially for his size), and can find space in between the tackles.

Regarding the 1-game sample size: If not for one game, this conversation wouldn't even be happening.

 
'Concept Coop said:
'EBF said:
Putting that aside, I don't think he's all that good anyway. He's an average physical specimen. He's only carried the ball 77 times in his career. It's a small sample size, but there's nothing in the numbers that excites you. 4.0 YPC and no long runs. When someone is pedestrian on paper and pedestrian on the field, it starts to paint a discouraging picture.
You seem to be going out of your way to find criteria to fit your argument, despite the small sample size. I don't understand why a 25 yard run (or lack there of) means more than an 83 yard reception. He has speed, plenty enough to break long runs. His draft position does matter. And there have certainly been fantasy contributers after not producing much in their first 2 seasons. A very long list, actually. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, etc.
Vintage EBF. He draws a conclusion about a player, then cherry picks data to back it up, ignoring anything that is contradictory. This is the tact generally used after the Straw Man arguments have failed.
 
'Concept Coop said:
You seem to be going out of your way to find criteria to fit your argument, despite the small sample size. I don't understand why a 25 yard run (or lack there of) means more than an 83 yard reception. He has speed, plenty enough to break long runs. His draft position does matter. And there have certainly been fantasy contributers after not producing much in their first 2 seasons. A very long list, actually. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, etc.
Short answer:
. Good speed on completely busted coverage, but provides no context in terms of anything else a RB needs.Longer answer: I view longer runs as more important for a RB, because it "generally" means that they make someone miss, break a tackle, see a hole -- the basics that make a good RB.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'jonboltz said:
My entire argument comes from watching them play and supplementing with various scouting reports...
Likely best to simply say that I disagree and that we'll see.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Vereen had 62 carries last year. 26 of them came when NE was up by 17 or more points (according to ESPN). For those 26, he had a 2.8 ypc. For the other 36 it was 4.9 ypc.

 
I'd take the two picks. Especially in a 16 teamer where depth is tougher to come by, making the 2nd rounder more valuable than normal and also making RBs worth more since there are so few to go around. Especially with only 0.5 PPR. I also think that while Blackmon is pretty close in talent to the top WRs this year, maybe better, this years guys will end up in better situations likely. Is there a worse situation than Jacksonville? I guess Arizona is pretty awful.If Keenan Allen or Patterson end up in Pittsburgh for example. Or Tavon Austin lands in St. Louis. I think there is a very good chance you get equal value at 1.03 and win the trade by getting the early 2nd rounder in a deep draft class.
All true............but this year more than others I think it's also true the bust rate will be really high for top picks, and there is no elite talent.Like I said, if you have to draft based on the situation the player lands in, that's not a good sign.
You always have to take situation into account. I actually like a guy like Keenan Allen better than Blackmon from a pure talent perspective. If he ends up with Big Ben as opposed to Gabbert, that is just the icing on the cake. Also, while I do focus a lot on pure talent, I also put an equal focus on the situation. I got Alfred Morris early in most of my leagues leagues last offseason and it wasn't because I was wowed by his college highlights, but because Shanahans RBs always put up numbers and the competition was wide open. If a team with an elite QB (like Luck in Indy) drafts a WR in the first, I will bump that guy up a good amount.
I would say I put about a 90-10 focus on talent vs. situation. Far far far too many guys I see taken high by people just because they are projected to start. Problem is, they aren't good enough to do well even if they get that chance. If I have guys real close, I will take the guy in what I think is the better long term situation.
 
'Shutout said:
'EBF said:
'ghostguy123 said:
Overpaying helps you with future deals?? No way, lol
I think there's some truth to it. If you know that an owner is willing to accept borderline deals, you might cut him some slack in one deal knowing that he'll probably do the same for you down the road. On the flipside, if you know that an owner never does trades that aren't grossly lopsided in his favor, you'll eventually view every offer that he sends with extreme skepticism. Obviously you want to win every trade and come out ahead long term, but if you're never willing to play ball then it might discourage people from sending you offers or accepting the offers that you send.
I find this very true. It's almost like rope-a-dope. You sometimes can take a lot of small hits and then make a big gain when you need it. There have been lots of times where I throw a guy a bone when he needs it, give a player when his position is hit by injury, etc, and then turn around and receive the exact player i need when I need it. takes a lot of faith to do that but in a dynasty, you learn who you can partner with and who you can't. A few years ago, my QB went down and I had a great team. The sharks came out to try to rape me. Another guy offered me a very good deal on an aging Tom Brady. Worked for me and honestly, worked better than anyone probably thought at that time but then I returned the favor last year and gave him two very good young players for less than what others would offer. Its fair.
Not saying it is..........but isnt that at least bordering on collusion??
 
'Concept Coop said:
You seem to be going out of your way to find criteria to fit your argument, despite the small sample size. I don't understand why a 25 yard run (or lack there of) means more than an 83 yard reception. He has speed, plenty enough to break long runs. His draft position does matter. And there have certainly been fantasy contributers after not producing much in their first 2 seasons. A very long list, actually. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, etc.
I don't have to stretch the numbers very much to make Vereen look mediocre. Whether you look at YPC or big plays, there's nothing about the rushing ability he has demonstrated in the NFL thus far that inspires much optimism. He appears to have some value as a receiving back. Beyond that, there's little to get excited about. As for the late bloomer RBs, it certainly happens. Often times it's a guy who's stuck behind an elite level starter. Michael Turner was behind LT. Ahman Green was behind Ricky Watters. Larry Johnson was behind Priest Holmes. Priest Holmes was behind Jamal Lewis. That's one way it can happen. Other times you get a guy like Thomas Jones or Cedric Benson who struggles on a bad team. I don't think that applies to New England though. And while Ridley is a solid back, I don't think he's so amazing that he could be keeping an elite talent on the pine. By and large, most good RBs make an impact within their first two years in the NFL. Even guys like McCoy, Rice, McGahee, McAllister, Alexander, Mendenhall, and Steven Jackson who were drafted as backups were starting by year two. Teams don't mess around with this stuff. When they make a big investment in a running back, they generally try to get him out there as soon as possible. In Vereen's case, he's been in the league for two years and basically done nothing. His own coaching staff has shown a clear preference for Ridley, who's had more carries in every single game that the two have played together. There's nothing positive about this. Even when Vereen has been healthy, his coaches have shown very little desire to get him involved. That tells me they don't think he's a great player. When you add it all up, the odds are against him. Most 2nd round NFL draft picks don't amount to much. When you narrow the population to include only the running backs who haven't made a significant impact after two years in the NFL, the odds are even worse. Vereen is in Kenny Irons/Brian Leonard/Daniel Thomas territory. There are exceptions, but using exceptions to disprove the rule is not a wise practice. It's kind of like arguing that any 7th round WR has good chance to become an instant star just because Marques Colston happened to do it or that it's not a big deal if a RB goes undrafted because Arian Foster and Priest Holmes were also UDFAs. What's lost in that kind of argument is the odds. Yes, sometimes players defy the odds. But most don't. For every Colston there are dozens of similar late picks who do nothing. For every Foster there are dozens of UDFAs who were cut in training camp. It's not that Vereen has no value. It's just that he's not nearly as valuable as his sticker price. If you took the bait on this guy in your rookie draft, you had to sit back and watch as his value plummeted steadily for two years. Then the magical playoff game happened. And it was almost like that memory erasing device in Men In Black. All of a sudden people forgot how invisible this guy had been for two years and started paying significant prices for him. Crazy. The next week he got a whopping four carries and two catches, but people are still hypnotized. What are you really paying for? A mediocre physical specimen who has largely failed to make an impact through two years in the league. A guy who has been clearly outshined by one of his fellow rookies and arguably even by a 2012 UDFA (Bolden). A player whose coach has no history of yielding multiple top 20 FF RBs. There is a non-zero chance that Vereen will surprise people and become something more than what his track record and his coach's track record would indicate, but the odds seem to point towards a short term future as bye week filler and nothing more. That's not the kind of asset I'm looking to acquire for the price of a 1st-2nd round rookie pick. In that range I'm hoping to get someone who has a chance to become an every week player for my team. If you've been a Vereen owner all along, you have to look at this situation as a godsend. It's a rare chance for a do-over. An opportunity to pawn this guy off for approximately the same value that you spent to get him in the first place even though he's unequivocally been a disappointment. I would leap at the chance to move him for a late 1st-early 2nd or player(s) of equivalent value.
 
I don't have to stretch the numbers very much to make Vereen look mediocre.
It's not numbers, it's everything. You're putting together a collection of circumstances, not even doing the leg work to really provide an accurate picture, and using it to frame Vereen's chances. We're not looking for LeSean McCoy, CJ Spiller, or Jamaal Charles. We're looking for Ahmad Bradshaw, hopefully, as Thrifty pointed out. The numbers are there - take them for what you will. The sample size is very small, so there is plenty room for manipluation as each side sees fit. No use in us going back and forth on them, any more than we have. But the whole "2nd round runningbacks who didn't play behind a star, and didn't break out in their first 2 years, with X amount of long runs..." - that doesn't add up. At least do the work and provide a number or %, rather than just claim "See?!". Dynasy rosters are made up of longshots. Late first round picks are longshots. We know Vereen isn't a likely top 15 RB anytime soon. In your 'back-up RBs who could be starters' thread, you list plenty of guys with criteria no more damning than Vereen. You mention Toby Gerhardt. Have you looked at his numbers? I don't think you're being consistant, here. Your words: "a decent NFL track record". Yet Vereen has done nothing and is a waste of a roster spot? Something doesn't smell right.
 
For comparison's sake, isn't Wright the same animal? He had a year in the league and showed little/no gamebreaking ability. His upside doesn't even look to be Santonio Holmes. Isn't the chance to move him for a mid 1st, or to fill a need with a hype RB (replace with a name you like better like Mendenhall), a well needed chance for a do-over?

 
'Shutout said:
'EBF said:
'ghostguy123 said:
Overpaying helps you with future deals?? No way, lol
I think there's some truth to it. If you know that an owner is willing to accept borderline deals, you might cut him some slack in one deal knowing that he'll probably do the same for you down the road. On the flipside, if you know that an owner never does trades that aren't grossly lopsided in his favor, you'll eventually view every offer that he sends with extreme skepticism. Obviously you want to win every trade and come out ahead long term, but if you're never willing to play ball then it might discourage people from sending you offers or accepting the offers that you send.
I find this very true. It's almost like rope-a-dope. You sometimes can take a lot of small hits and then make a big gain when you need it. There have been lots of times where I throw a guy a bone when he needs it, give a player when his position is hit by injury, etc, and then turn around and receive the exact player i need when I need it. takes a lot of faith to do that but in a dynasty, you learn who you can partner with and who you can't. A few years ago, my QB went down and I had a great team. The sharks came out to try to rape me. Another guy offered me a very good deal on an aging Tom Brady. Worked for me and honestly, worked better than anyone probably thought at that time but then I returned the favor last year and gave him two very good young players for less than what others would offer. Its fair.
Not saying it is..........but isnt that at least bordering on collusion??
That's what I thought as well.
 
'32 Counter Pass said:
This reminds of all the panic of Arian Foster's hamstring tear a couple years back.That didn't turn out to well for the naysayers either. :rolleyes:
Arian Foster didnt cost the 1.01 rookie pick.
No, he cost the 1.01 overall start-up pick.
:goodposting: Seems like a lot of hand wringing about a non issue.
I actually do put some stock into hamstring injuries. Of course it can be a freak thing and never pop up again. However, it can also be a red flag in that he will have a lot of future hamstring issues, which would be horrible for a RB.I worry about a very YOUNG guy getting a grade 2 hamstring injury. And since I have no idea if it was a freak thing or an indication or more to come, I have to reflect how I value him a bit differently because of it.Before Lacy was hurt I still would taken Blackmon over the #1 pick. I prefer Blackmon even a little more than I already did now.
 
In your 'back-up RBs who could be starters' thread, you list plenty of guys with criteria no more damning than Vereen. You mention Toby Gerhardt. Have you looked at his numbers? I don't think you're being consistant, here. Your words: "a decent NFL track record". Yet Vereen has done nothing and is a waste of a roster spot? Something doesn't smell right.
Through two years Gerhart had 190 carries for 853 yards (4.49 YPC) and 44 catches. Through two years Vereen has 77 carries for 308 yards (4.0 YPC) and 8 catches. Gerhart was putrid in 2012, but at least he has shown that he can play well as a starter over a string of several games. He had five games of double digit carries in 2011 and averaged 4.83 YPC in those games with at least two runs longer than Vereen's career best. Neither of these guys is a lock. I'd argue that Toby has shown a little more and that he has a better excuse for his lack of production (being stuck behind the best RB in football). Even putting all that aside, you're missing a big piece of the equation, which is the price of acquisition. When I recommend players like Gerhart and Nick Toon, it is not because I think they're superstars. It's just because I think they're worth a little more than what they cost. Likewise, if I say to sell Vereen or Torrey Smith, it's not because I think they're garbage. It's just because I don't think they're worth what you can trade them for.Toby Gerhart for the price of a late 2nd-early 3rd round rookie pick is a reasonable gamble. If people were trading 1st round picks or Kendall Wright for him, I'd say he's horribly overvalued. And that's basically how I feel about Vereen. His worth to me in a typical PPR dynasty league is probably a late 2nd-early 3rd round rookie pick. I'd lean towards the low end of that spectrum because I don't think he has much of a ceiling. But, as we're seeing here, that's not his market value. If he's fetching late 1st value right now, he's an easy sell. There's no hypocrisy here. It's all relative. If you can buy a dime for a nickel, it's a good deal. If you have to pay a quarter, not so much.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
But, as we're seeing here, that's not his market value. If he's fetching late 1st value right now, he's an easy sell. There's no hypocrisy here. It's all relative. If you can buy a dime for a nickel, it's a good deal. If you have to pay a quarter, not so much.
This is where you confuse me: "IMO he is a waste of time and roster space in most FF leagues."

That's not exactly, he's a sell at his current price.

 
If his value is a late 2nd, over the next 3 years which of these RBs will score more FP than Vereen?

Michael

Davis

Lattimore

Spencer Ware

Monte Ball

Ellington

LeVeon Bell

Stepfan Taylor

Zac Stacy

 
If his value is a late 2nd, over the next 3 years which of these RBs will score more FP than Vereen?MichaelDavisLattimoreSpencer WareMonte BallEllingtonLeVeon BellStepfan TaylorZac Stacy
It doesn't really matter. If I trade Vereen for the 25th overall rookie pick, I'm not obligated to draft a RB there.
 
'Shutout said:
'EBF said:
'ghostguy123 said:
Overpaying helps you with future deals?? No way, lol
I think there's some truth to it. If you know that an owner is willing to accept borderline deals, you might cut him some slack in one deal knowing that he'll probably do the same for you down the road. On the flipside, if you know that an owner never does trades that aren't grossly lopsided in his favor, you'll eventually view every offer that he sends with extreme skepticism. Obviously you want to win every trade and come out ahead long term, but if you're never willing to play ball then it might discourage people from sending you offers or accepting the offers that you send.
I find this very true. It's almost like rope-a-dope. You sometimes can take a lot of small hits and then make a big gain when you need it. There have been lots of times where I throw a guy a bone when he needs it, give a player when his position is hit by injury, etc, and then turn around and receive the exact player i need when I need it. takes a lot of faith to do that but in a dynasty, you learn who you can partner with and who you can't. A few years ago, my QB went down and I had a great team. The sharks came out to try to rape me. Another guy offered me a very good deal on an aging Tom Brady. Worked for me and honestly, worked better than anyone probably thought at that time but then I returned the favor last year and gave him two very good young players for less than what others would offer. Its fair.
Not saying it is..........but isnt that at least bordering on collusion??
That's what I thought as well.
It's a little close for comfort but as long as both teams are doing what is best for their team it's not collusion. It's akin to what the Harbaugh brothers did with Boldin but they are still trying their best to win.
 
If his value is a late 2nd, over the next 3 years which of these RBs will score more FP than Vereen?MichaelDavisLattimoreSpencer WareMonte BallEllingtonLeVeon BellStepfan TaylorZac Stacy
It doesn't really matter. If I trade Vereen for the 25th overall rookie pick, I'm not obligated to draft a RB there.
Then what RBs that you like more than Vereen could you legitimately trade the 25th overall pick for? Maybe none. I don't think you'd even get Gerhart for that price, unless it's a non-ADP owner.Your strategy is to undervalue RBs a lot. You will put a high value on the 1 to 3 guys you feel strongly about, and dumpster dive for others. That is a legitimate strategy, but it is tempering your position on Vereen. Yes, his past is iffy, and his future is iffy, but he's still a legitimate upside gamble. Even your hedging proposition that he has late 2nd value is wildly inaccurate because he is a better bet and has less bust risk than any WR/RB in that range.
 
12 team PPR start 2RB/3WR/TE can flex any

Team A gave up Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR;Jones, James GBP WR

Team B gave up Smith, Torrey BAL WR; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.09

It seems that Smith>Jones and Jeffery = 1.09, but I think Jones has a better 2013 than T Smith.

Thoughts?

 
Then what RBs that you like more than Vereen could you legitimately trade the 25th overall pick for? Maybe none. I don't think you'd even get Gerhart for that price, unless it's a non-ADP owner.
Again, that's not really the point. The value of a rookie draft pick is not tied to just one position. Just because you might not be able to get a good RB with the 25th pick doesn't mean that it doesn't have more value than a mediocre RB prospect. I'm sure there will be several players on the board there in most of my leagues that I'd rather have than Vereen. Whether or not they're RBs doesn't really matter to me. It's like if I traded Jay Cutler for the 10th rookie pick. There might not be any QBs available there who will outscore Cutler over the next several years, but that doesn't mean the pick isn't worth more than Cutler. You don't have to use the pick on a QB. Just like you don't have to use whichever pick you get for Vereen on a RB. Drumming up a list of all the crappy RBs in this draft class is missing the point. Nevermind the fact that Vereen's market value seems to be a lot higher than the 25th pick. I would probably only pay a 3rd round rookie pick to get Vereen, but apparently lots of people think he's worth significantly more than that. Kendall Wright's trade value is probably something like 1.05-1.10 right now in most leagues. There should be some nice talent available in that range. The thought of trading a prospect like Justin Hunter, Christine Michael, Tyler Eifert, or Da'Rick Rogers for Vereen is nauseating to me.
 
Gave: Darren Sproles, My 2015 1st

Got: Choice of either his 2014 1st or 2015 1st (to be determined at 2014 rookie draft)

His team finished last this year. Couldn't get anything for Sproles so had to get creative. I have not missed the playoffs in 5 years so it is worth the gamble.

 
Blockbuster!

[*]Comatose Sleepers gave up Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB; Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.08

[*]Kiss My Ring gave up Morris, Alfred WAS RB; Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR; Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.03 (Actually 16th pick because of extra 1.13 in the 1st)

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top