Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Do you think Welker will at least see significantly more targets than Bradon Stokely did last year (if not more than Decker)?
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2013 Off Season Dynasty Trade Thread (for completed trades) (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
Yes to main question; no to the bracket question. I expect Welker to get Stokely targets plus a fair amount from the TEs. (and a small amount from other WRs)
Phenix
Footballguy
Nope I do not think he will see more then Decker, because Decker is still a pretty dang good player. They will not just forget about him because some dude at the end of his career comes in to help out. This offense isnt built around Welker. Decker is part of what makes this offense click, I think it is strange to just assume a Welker could come in and just take over.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Every time you're selling a player you think is overvalued you're basically biding time until the community catches up to how you see the situation (or you're proven wrong and the ADP is about right). By putting Ballard on the block you are inviting below market value offers. Whether you should take the trade is based on whether you think the trade is still above his actual value and how long you think you have before everyone else sees his actual value. A lot of bad trades happen because the guy holding the player like Ballard or Johnson just feels he has to get out.
No one is suggesting to blindly follow ADP. If your rankings have Nicks ahead of Blackmon and Blackmon ahead of Johnson but ADP has Johnson ahead of the two WRs, of course you ask for Nicks first, but then eventually work your way down the list til you find a deal you still feel is good actual value. I'd rather offend a guy asking for Nicks or Crabtree then just assume he'd reject. Similarly if I have Ballard, and I see Wright, Austin, and Shorts within 5 spots of his name, I'd at least send the offer out if the need matched before i settled on someone who both ADP and my rankings have much lower.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You're missing the point. Welker could eat into Decker's targets - I expect he will to some extent. I'm not necessarily expecting Welkrt to see more targets than Decker but I surely wouldn't be shocked by it either.
I think Decker will still be a very good player in fantasy and real life - but my original point was that it wasn't a sure thing that he'll outproduce Gordon in 2013 juts because he did last season and/or because he has a better QB. TDs are a volitile stat and alot of Decker's fantasy production was based on his high TD totals - that doesn't mean he cant repeat those totals, but you can't bet on it.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think we're making a mistake if we're looking at it as WR1, WR2, WR3. That's not really what this offense is about. Manning takes what is there and everything is very audible heavy.
Welker is going to get his, and I’d be mildly surprised if he didn’t lead the team in targets. Not because he’s “WR1”, but because he is the most unique mismatch and that’s what elite slot guys do; get targets/first downs.
This offense can feed 3 guys, so I wouldn’t be too concerned as a Decker owner. His value is down, but I think the market might be too down on him, post-Welker. The hope is that the offense simply scores more TDs by getting more first downs and staying on the field longer. Decker’s YPT would need to go up to produce the numbers he did last season, but that’s not out of the question.
Long story short, Welker is getting his, but it doesn’t have to be an “either or” between he and Decker.
Phenix
Footballguy
Agreed, 100%.
They all are gonna get theirs, point of this is Gordon or Decker the better option. FYI, Gordon only had 4 games of more than 4 catches last year. Yes his first year, but most are sure using it to judge his future. Heck, Kendall Wright performed better then Gordon and has great upside and people still love Gordon more than him. Gordon is sexy right now, thats why I sold him for an solid proven WR.
This thread is so out of context as many cant realize why some made the deals, as they dont see the teams and its make up. I'm in repeat mode, I'm building to win AGAIN this year, not down the road. I will bet, baring injury, Decker out produces Gordon easily this year. As their is no reason to think a Browns WR right now can be elite. Any WR with Manning can be elite, even the #3 WR.
Banemorth
Footballguy
I probably overpaid by a ton but...
I Get:
Morris, Alfred WAS RB
Jones, Julio ATL WR
I Give:
Fleener, Coby IND TE
Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.08
Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.09
Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.11
Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.05
Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.08
I went from owning like 13 picks in this league to just one. 16 team full IDP. Here's a trade summary with all the picks / players
I Give:
1.08, 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, 1.12, 2.05, 2.08, 2.10, 3.08, 4.08, 4.10, 5.10, 5.11, Coby Fleener, Michael Floyd, 2015 3rd Rounder
I Get:
Mike Wallace, Stevie Johnson, Julio Jones, Alfred Morris, Donald Butler, Jimmy Smith, Dashon Goldson, Muhammad Wilkerson, Dont'a Hightower, 2015 2nd Rounder
I Get:
Morris, Alfred WAS RB
Jones, Julio ATL WR
I Give:
Fleener, Coby IND TE
Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.08
Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.09
Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.11
Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.05
Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.08
I went from owning like 13 picks in this league to just one. 16 team full IDP. Here's a trade summary with all the picks / players
I Give:
1.08, 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, 1.12, 2.05, 2.08, 2.10, 3.08, 4.08, 4.10, 5.10, 5.11, Coby Fleener, Michael Floyd, 2015 3rd Rounder
I Get:
Mike Wallace, Stevie Johnson, Julio Jones, Alfred Morris, Donald Butler, Jimmy Smith, Dashon Goldson, Muhammad Wilkerson, Dont'a Hightower, 2015 2nd Rounder
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd make that bet, too. I liked Decker a good deal more before Welker, and while it's closer now, I'd still take Decker. I have been a Decker fan since the Orton days, however, and don't view him as a system guy.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
werdnoynek
Footballguy
it may be time to rename this thread to: The Phenix Pissing Contest
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Underpaid by a ton...pretty sure I'd make that trade for either Julio or Morris; let alone both.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
agreed.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
JPeso
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
JPeso
Footballguy
I'd make that bet too. But by how much? Enough to justify the 6 year differential? Enough to justify the potential that Gordon could likely outscore Decker's ceiling in one or several of those 6 years?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
For me, yes. Decker just turned 26, so any age advantage I'd gain by going with Gordon would come 5 years down the road. That's simply too much for me to give much of a boost to Gordon, in that regard.
I fully understand the other side of the argument; I think Gordon has the most potential and understand he is younger. But, in a vacuum, I'd still feel better with Decker.
JPeso
Footballguy
Understandable. I suppose I don't see the gap this year being enough to relinquish the a) higher upside and b) age. It's a dynasty slant to a redraft idea of... "I'd rather draft Gordon later/cheaper in a redraft."
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think floor comes into it as well; and I like Decker's more than Gordon's, even as NFL players.
1-2 years ago Decker was where Gordon is now; deep threat with upside. It seems odd, and forever ago now, but people were calling Decker a potential one-trick-pony, and even compared him to guys like Desean Jackson, in terms of potential. He showed he was more than that, catching 91 balls at close to a 70% catch rate.
I think Decker is a better player right now. That matters a great deal to me. I'd rather take a sure 80 than a 50% chance at 100, to over simplify things.
Gordon is overrated in here. I own him a ton but his big games came from a few bombs. His qb is the suck and he's a weekly boom or bust player in a ppr.
He's the David Wilson of wr this year. Both are en vogue but with nothing to back it up. I can see little and Andre brown out scoring either of these guys on a weekly basis.
He's the David Wilson of wr this year. Both are en vogue but with nothing to back it up. I can see little and Andre brown out scoring either of these guys on a weekly basis.
JPeso
Footballguy
Decker a deep threat with upside? Personally never remember thinking that when watching him play earlier in his career or now, at least not to the level of Gordon. You are probably right that Decker is a better football player right now, I am simply stating that this game goes a bit deeper than that for me.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Phenix
Footballguy
Based off what? Thats my point, no reason should someone believe a Cleveland WR will out perform a starting WR who has Manning at QB. As well as proved he already can be a stud with last years performance, some are just hoping Gordon is good. I like Gordon, but I think people are really over valuing him. This years title counts too, so Decker is a better bet to help me get it this year. I'm not worried for seasons not here yet.
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Spin
Footballguy
Just curious, why would you think you overpaid? I don't understand what about this trade makes you think you overpaid at all, let alone "by a ton".
I assume these are just rookie picks, right?
If the deal was 1.8/1.9/1.11 for just Julio, would you still feel like you overpaid? Would you accept 1.3/1.4 for Julio right now after making the trade?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
"Can" and "will" are two different things. I can see it too and have tried to send out fliers for those players. But it doesn't temper my enthusiasm for Gordon and Wilson. It's pretty simple risk/reward. Unless you think he's a bum his floor in market value is still pretty high. He's still a top 100 player this time next year even if he struggles.
He said it was a full IDP league, so those picks probably carry a lot more value than in most formats. Depending on scoring/starting requirements, the deal could be closer, but it still isn't likely to be an overpay.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I like Turbin but think Vereen's a better talent and in a better situation. I could see doing this deal if I had Lynch but I'd ask for more.
EBF
Footballguy
I'd compare him to Torrey Smith a year ago. He's shown that he can get deep, but his possession game is still a mystery. If he can work the short and intermediate routes effectively, he can become a top receiver. If not, he'll likely never progress much beyond what he did this past season.
Factoring cost into the equation, I would rather have Chris Givens. He showed the same positives, but won't cost as much in most cases.
Having said that, I think the Gordon/1.05 side is a big winner in the Ballard trade. Ballard is just a guy and I'm not sold on Decker as anything but a complementary player.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Both guys are behind RBs that are more talented than themselves. Both would need injury, and if that were the case I think Turbin would have shoulder much more of the load than Vereen.
Vereen is better as a pass catcher, but Turbin isn't bad there. Turbin is much better running the ball (IMHO). I'd certainly give the short-term situational edge to Vereen, but I like Turbin's overall talent better than Vereen.
This is the part I disagree with- I think Vereen could see a lot more work if Ridley gets off to a slow start, fumbles a few times, is late for a team meeting, etc., where Lynch is much less likely to fall out of favor. I'd still make this trade especially as a Lynch owner
EBF
Footballguy
Givens isn't tall, but at 5'11.1" 198 his height/weight ratio is in the same general ballpark as Roddy White and Julio Jones.
The obvious parallel is Greg Jennings, who was 5'11.1" 197 at the combine with a very similar 40 time.
Givens is actually a bit faster than Jennings and had a much better rookie year. He has a very clear path to the WR1 role as of right now (though St. Louis is likely to draft another WR).
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I'm not so sure about that. 198 is probably a little higher than what your average corner weighs. He won't be overmatched physically. And the fact that he can run 4.35 means you're playing a dangerous game if you try to jam him at the line. Learning to cope with physical coverage might be something that will take him a year or two of experience to master, but I don't really see size being an impediment to his long term success. He's never going to be an ideal jump ball receiver, but he's not built like DeSean Jackson either. His height/weight/speed combination is excellent overall.
Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
I'm always amazed people don't catch onto this guy's reinvented aliases. His most recent annoying personas were Football Critic, and prior to that Just Cuz. He will predictably deny it like he did when I outed him as being Football Critic, before finally confessing. His schtick eventually gives him away everytime.
Would be best if he created a separate thread for his deals, instead of ruining this one.
Would be best if he created a separate thread for his deals, instead of ruining this one.
werdnoynek said:it may be time to rename this thread to: The Phenix Pissing Contest
gianmarco
Footballguy
Makes perfect sense.I'm always amazed people don't catch onto this guy's reinvented aliases. His most recent annoying personas were Football Critic, and prior to that Just Cuz. He will predictably deny it like he did when I outed him as being Football Critic, before finally confessing. His schtick eventually gives him away everytime.
Would be best if he created a separate thread for his deals, instead of ruining this one.
werdnoynek said:it may be time to rename this thread to: The Phenix Pissing Contest
squistion
Footballguy
I was about to say this was JuSt CuZ. If so, better spelling outside of the Phenix (sic) moniker, but similar writing style, grammar and attitude. If we are lucky we also might see some signature worthy gems, like the below, before a temporary or permanent time out is given.I'm always amazed people don't catch onto this guy's reinvented aliases. His most recent annoying personas were Football Critic, and prior to that Just Cuz. He will predictably deny it like he did when I outed him as being Football Critic, before finally confessing. His schtick eventually gives him away everytime.
Would be best if he created a separate thread for his deals, instead of ruining this one.
werdnoynek said:it may be time to rename this thread to: The Phenix Pissing Contest
cstu
Footballguy
This is from a new startup and Blackmon was my target during the draft, but he got taken earlier than I wanted and had to settle for Wallace. I like Britt but my WR's are now Julio, Cobb, Nicks and Blackmon (start 1-4). Giving up Britt was tough but I think Blackmon could become untouchable after this year. The 1.12 looks like it will still be a good player as well.Concept Coop said:
Phenix
Footballguy
If that was the case I could be LHucks or many other people! Every time i say things that challenge people I'm someone elses log in or something. Nothing new being accused as someone else. Its pretty typical. Love the typically deny, the little preemptive words you sugest to prepare for when I do deny it. Maybe you are Football Critic or Lhucks or whatever. But I'm sure you will deny it.I was about to say this was JuSt CuZ. If so, better spelling outside of the Phenix (sic) moniker, but similar writing style, grammar and attitude. If we are lucky we also might see some signature worthy gems, like the below, before a temporary or permanent time out is given.I'm always amazed people don't catch onto this guy's reinvented aliases. His most recent annoying personas were Football Critic, and prior to that Just Cuz. He will predictably deny it like he did when I outed him as being Football Critic, before finally confessing. His schtick eventually gives him away everytime.
Would be best if he created a separate thread for his deals, instead of ruining this one.
werdnoynek said:it may be time to rename this thread to: The Phenix Pissing Contest
ETA: Timeout? For disagreeing with people? Some hyper-sensitive people here, Ironic considering football is a mans game.
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Phenix
Footballguy
Banemorth
Footballguy
Maybe I value the picks too highly. In a 16 Team IDP league those picks are pretty valuable in my mind. Not to mention the fact that, since there was a loop hole in the bylaws, everyone was able to cut their bad contracts last year and multiple people have more than 50% of their cap available. Stevie Brown just went for $13,000 in RFA. Daryl Richardson went for 20k. (200k cap) The Rookie draft has become the only place to get players at a reasonable price as they all have fixed salaries. Obviously I liked the deal or I wouldn't have done it. The reaction amongst the others in the league were that I had overpaid. The one guy said he would have sent me D-Thomas for a 1st and 2nd.
Phenix
Footballguy
Speculation is this is a weak draft, so majority are down on the picks this year. Maybe worth more with your league size however.
squistion
Footballguy
Not for disagreeing with people. For the sometimes insulting and superior tone used when disagreeing, such as:
Or this:
Some comments occasionally go beyond simple disagreement and, as Joe says in the pinned thread, that we should try to "Be Excellent to One Another."
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I like Gordon quite a bit as a player, but it's hard to ignore the fact that he plays for a bottom 5 NFL organization. I just don't trust Cleveland to draft / develop / improve / etc. IMO it's a pretty big limiting factor.thriftyrocker said:
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
This is atrocious. There is no league set up that wouldn't make this a horrible deal for the guy getting the picks.
