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2014 Offensive Line Rankings (1 Viewer)

I really enjoyed the read... no comments or questions about the content (yet) but one of my favorite pieces this offseason on an overlooked aspect of FF :thanks:

 
I expected the Jaguars to be ranked low because they have serious questions at C and RG but I thought they would be higher than 32nd.

Paztor really did play well last season and looks like he is underrated.

To me this should be an improved line from the banged up line at the end of 2013 though and that doesn't match your rankings.

Linder at RG is an unproven rookie but the guy he's replacing (Will Rackley) was brutal. Brewster at C is another question mark but Meester was really running on fumes at the end and was undersized.

Beadles is an improvement over Nwaneri at LG and the high draft pick Joeckel is back at his natural LT.

Maybe I'm expecting too much out of Joeckel, though.

 
As a die-hard Bears fan, I was surprised to see them ranked so high. Don't get me wrong, I think OC Kromer is an O-line whisperer, but I just don't think they have the elite talent to be ranked 5th. As a perpetual Forte owner, I hope you're right!

EDIT: I realize that Cleveland's O-line has been consistently excellent, but will that talent result in yards/TDs for Tate or West?

 
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Regarding the Browns run blocking - do the strengths of Thomas and Mack make up that much for Bitonio and Schwartz?

The Titans look to me like a better run blocking team with only one weakness (Schwenke at center who was ok as a rookie last year). Having Lewan or Oher as a backup (depending on who wins at RT) is an advantage for them as well. They also signed former Wisconsin OL coach Bob Bostad who turned Davin Joseph into a Pro Bowl player.

 
This doesn't really mean anything but I was watching highlights of a Saints game recently and Jimmy Graham did his trademark dunk on the goal posts.

Well right behind him to do the same thing (sans ball) was Terron Armstead. I don't know how many left tackles can do that.

 
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Hard to take seriously when 9 teams or so get A ratings across the board. I would think that if there was a bell curve to these (since C is, by definition, average), the team at 9 or 10 would be a B or so.

 
As a die-hard Bears fan, I was surprised to see them ranked so high. Don't get me wrong, I think OC Kromer is an O-line whisperer, but I just don't think they have the elite talent to be ranked 5th. As a perpetual Forte owner, I hope you're right!

EDIT: I realize that Cleveland's O-line has been consistently excellent, but will that talent result in yards/TDs for Tate or West?
:goodposting:

That plus I usually felt Cutler had less time to throw than most QBs last season. Very surprised to see the Bears at 5.

 
As a die-hard Bears fan, I was surprised to see them ranked so high. Don't get me wrong, I think OC Kromer is an O-line whisperer, but I just don't think they have the elite talent to be ranked 5th. As a perpetual Forte owner, I hope you're right!

EDIT: I realize that Cleveland's O-line has been consistently excellent, but will that talent result in yards/TDs for Tate or West?
Agreed that the Bears seem overrated. Mills especially - he does not deserve the same rating as Phil Loadholt & Anthony Davis.

 
Hard to take seriously when 9 teams or so get A ratings across the board. I would think that if there was a bell curve to these (since C is, by definition, average), the team at 9 or 10 would be a B or so.
Gotta agree with this. Great read though and the tables look great

 
I expected the Jaguars to be ranked low because they have serious questions at C and RG but I thought they would be higher than 32nd.

Paztor really did play well last season and looks like he is underrated.

To me this should be an improved line from the banged up line at the end of 2013 though and that doesn't match your rankings.

Linder at RG is an unproven rookie but the guy he's replacing (Will Rackley) was brutal. Brewster at C is another question mark but Meester was really running on fumes at the end and was undersized.

Beadles is an improvement over Nwaneri at LG and the high draft pick Joeckel is back at his natural LT.

Maybe I'm expecting too much out of Joeckel, though.
I'll look at Paztor again. even if i am a full grade off on him, it doesn't change their score too much. Lack of elite talent and tons of change. Beadles is the best player on that line right now. I am grading Joeckel as a rookie right now, as his whole season was basically washed out last year. Maybe that's too harsh. But he doesn't have any cohesion with Zane and in many ways it's like a brand new OL. The center situation is extremely troubling, obviously they wanted to upgrade with Alex mack but that didn't work out.

Regarding the Browns run blocking - do the strengths of Thomas and Mack make up that much for Bitonio and Schwartz?

The Titans look to me like a better run blocking team with only one weakness (Schwenke at center who was ok as a rookie last year). Having Lewan or Oher as a backup (depending on who wins at RT) is an advantage for them as well. They also signed former Wisconsin OL coach Bob Bostad who turned Davin Joseph into a Pro Bowl player.
I am not as down on Schwartz as most. Those Cal linemen are in general underrated. Bitonio is also a fave and if he isn't ready to start, McQuistan will be. Thomas and Mack are both studs and they play key positions (as compared to New orleans for example where their studs are at guard). The Cleveland Browns are interesting also because of depth. Reid Fragel could be a starter somewhere else.

The titans are an interesting group and you are right the center position holds back that grade.

As a die-hard Bears fan, I was surprised to see them ranked so high. Don't get me wrong, I think OC Kromer is an O-line whisperer, but I just don't think they have the elite talent to be ranked 5th. As a perpetual Forte owner, I hope you're right!
Jermon Bushrod is an elite left tackle, and their cohesion is off the charts. the right side with Kyle Long and Garrett Mills could be among the better right sides in the conference. Whoever said Mills shouldn't be as highly rated as Loadholt is probably right. Not sure if that means a downgrade to Mills or an upgrade for Loadholt but either way they are still in that top tier easily.

Hard to take seriously when 9 teams or so get A ratings across the board. I would think that if there was a bell curve to these (since C is, by definition, average), the team at 9 or 10 would be a B or so.
this is a good point. There is some grade inflation in that there's no F rated lines. The model itself spits out raw numbers and the numbers at the top were very close to each other. Without getting too deep into the weeds, CLE and PHI were 33's, the rest of the A's were 30-32 and the only B+ team (jets) was 29. It wasn't purposely curved but the distribution had more teams at the top for whatever reason.

 
This doesn't really mean anything but I was watching highlights of a Saints game recently and Jimmy Graham did his trademark dunk on the goal posts.

Well right behind him to do the same thing (sans ball) was Terron Armstead. I don't know how many left tackles can do that.
Armstead has Pro Bowl potential athletically but lots to learn in technique. if he reaches that potential and the rest of the line stays healthy they could actually be in the top 5 (or higher). Certainly a situation to watch.

Thanks all for the kind words and feedback... keep it coming!

 
Two nits to pick:

1. Justin Britt was a 2nd round pick (the 64th pick overall).

2. What was the criteria to give them their 2013 grades? I really have a hard time buying Seattle's O-line was ranked #4 if they truly are down 5 spots to hit #9 in 2014. I honestly would have put them in the bottom 3rd of the league last year and largely saved by Russell Wilson's scrambling ability and Marshawn Lynch's beasting about.

 
Matt thanks for the article.

I am currently working on Carolina Panthers projections and I noticed that the Panthers gave up significantly more sacks in 2013 (43sk 336yds 8.3%/pass attempt) than the previous 2 seasons (36 6.9% and 35 6.3%) despite fewer total pass attempts.

I also noticed their rushing yards/carry has gone down significantly as well, while rushing attempts have increased.

2013 483ra 2026yds 4.2ypc 14TD
2012 462ra 2088yds 4.5ypc 21TD
2011 445ra 2408yds 5.4ypc 26TD
This really made me wonder about the offensive line performance, which based on these numbers is in decline.

But when I looked up information on the Panthers offensive line I hear a different story-

PFF ranked the Panthers offensive line as 7th overall in 2013 an improvement from the ranking of 27th overall in 2012. Almost all of that improvement was based on outstanding grades for Jordan Gross for most of the season. Of course now Gross has retired. So does this mean the Panthers will fall back to 2012 level of 27th? This indicates to me that Gross is a pretty big deal. However it does not explain why the key performance stats (sacks ypc TD) were all much worse in 2013.

FBO information tells perhaps a better story with the adjusted line yards being 5th best in the league in 2011 before falling back to 30th in 2012 and 14th in 2013.

Going through all of the players who had rushing attempts DeAngelo Williams has not had over 5ypc in the past 2 seasons and to a lesser extent Steve Smith has not done as well in this area as he did in 2011. So that may be due to age and decline of these 2 players, not the offensive line. It still does not account for why Newton did not run the ball as well or why he took more sacks.

Thanks for another perspective on this. :thumbup:

 
Two nits to pick:

1. Justin Britt was a 2nd round pick (the 64th pick overall).

2. What was the criteria to give them their 2013 grades? I really have a hard time buying Seattle's O-line was ranked #4 if they truly are down 5 spots to hit #9 in 2014. I honestly would have put them in the bottom 3rd of the league last year and largely saved by Russell Wilson's scrambling ability and Marshawn Lynch's beasting about.
I would put them middle of the pack at best. If this evaluation is purely statistical, then it makes sense that they would grade that high as Russell Wilson made them look competent but watching the games they were horrid. The only above average players in the line, Unger and Okung, were injured quite a bit. The rest of the line is below average, IMO.
 
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i agree with you on Schwartz for the Browns.

there were times last year he wasn't even looking at the guy he was supposed to be blocking because he was helping to block the guy the right guard was supposed to be on.

i know it sounds optimistic, but i think this is the year the Browns line finally lives up to it's potential.

 
looked it up. think it was the games Cousins was playing right guard.

Schwartz was getting ripped for his play, but he was trying to cover for Cousins, who was terrible last year.

 
Two nits to pick:

1. Justin Britt was a 2nd round pick (the 64th pick overall).

2. What was the criteria to give them their 2013 grades? I really have a hard time buying Seattle's O-line was ranked #4 if they truly are down 5 spots to hit #9 in 2014. I honestly would have put them in the bottom 3rd of the league last year and largely saved by Russell Wilson's scrambling ability and Marshawn Lynch's beasting about.
thanks for the edit, will make the change

as for the 2013 grades, I update the rankings every 4 weeks during the season. the 2013 grades are where we left them at week 16 of last year.

Regarding the Seahawks, what you are saying is not that uncommon. Many people downgrade certain lines for whatever reason. All the lines make mistakes and you only really hear about the line when mistakes happen. But if you line all 32 up and rank them, someone has to be on top. They all can't be bad. In a relative way, Seattle comes out close to the top. That's primarily due to Okung and Unger. Okung did miss half the season but Unger only missed 3 games.

Another aspect that people forget about is that Seattle carries 10 OL. Which means when an injury happens, they don't have to shuffle guys around like crazy. They have a backup at every position that has been practicing in that position. That isn't necessarily reflected in the rankings but they prioritize the OL which makes them above par in this league. Most teams carry 8 or 9 guys, with 7 active on gameday and if someone gets hurt it's musical chairs.

I am currently working on Carolina Panthers projections and I noticed that the Panthers gave up significantly more sacks in 2013 (43sk 336yds 8.3%/pass attempt) than the previous 2 seasons (36 6.9% and 35 6.3%) despite fewer total pass attempts.

I also noticed their rushing yards/carry has gone down significantly as well, while rushing attempts have increased.
I have Carolina at 14 which is 6 slots lower than last year, primarily because Gross retired. Ryan Kalil is the reason why that line is still a mid tier unit. If they had Mike Brewster for example, they could be 10 or more slots lower. I see what you are saying about the sack stats and the YPC stats however those stats are dependent upon the functionality of the offense as a whole, not just the offensive line. It's possible for a line to be good and an offense to be bad. It's not a 1-to-1 relationship.

 
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Where's the substance? These rankings don't seem to take into account what actually happens on the field.

Just one example is Dunlap. By Football outsiders metrics he was the best run blocking LT (PFF also graded him out very highly among LTs). It also reflected what happened on the field.

Yet you have his run blocking graded as average (which was the case in Phillys system).

Your rankings seem to be completely subjective.

Cleveland who you have as the top line gave up the third most sacks I believe.

Philly is even worse using footballoutsiders metrics.

Seattle had the worst pass protection per metrics and was bailed out by Wilson constantly.

 
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I am currently working on Carolina Panthers projections and I noticed that the Panthers gave up significantly more sacks in 2013 (43sk 336yds 8.3%/pass attempt) than the previous 2 seasons (36 6.9% and 35 6.3%) despite fewer total pass attempts.

I also noticed their rushing yards/carry has gone down significantly as well, while rushing attempts have increased.
I have Carolina at 14 which is 6 slots lower than last year, primarily because Gross retired. Ryan Kalil is the reason why that line is still a mid tier unit. If they had Brad Meester for example, they could be 10 or more slots lower. I see what you are saying about the sack stats and the YPC stats however those stats are dependent upon the functionality of the offense as a whole, not just the offensive line. It's possible for a line to be good and an offense to be bad. It's not a 1-to-1 relationship.
I agree that it is not a 1-1 relationship and it is very hard to say how much the 5 players on the offensive line have an affect on the overall performance of the offense. I would say they have some affect but never meant to suggest 100% responsibility lies with only 45% of the 11 players on the field.

I think the adjusted line yards may tell a part of that story, but only a part. That is why I am trying to pick your brain a bit here and maybe learn your opinion about how much of an impact a line ranking might have on an offenses performance?

It could be that Newton is responsible for those extra sacks given up, I have not seen how many times he was hurried. Perhaps that was consistent with the previous 2 seasons but the pass rusher got home more frequently?.Or has Cam Newton dipped his toe into the phone booth? You see that is the main question I am asking here, is if Newton regressed on his own while the offensive line played better? Because that is a concern for me in evaluating a 3rd year QB

 
Where's the substance? These rankings don't seem to take into account what actually happens on the field.

Just one example is Dunlap. By Football outsiders metrics he was the best run blocking LT (PFF also graded him out very highly among LTs). It also reflected what happened on the field.

Yet you have his run blocking graded as average (which was the case in Phillys system).

Your rankings seem to be completely subjective.

Cleveland who you have as the top line gave up the third most sacks I believe.

Philly is even worse using footballoutsiders metrics.

Seattle had the worst pass protection per metrics and was bailed out by Wilson constantly.
Nothing has happened on the field, it's preseason.

My question to you would be why do you trust PFF or football outsiders "metrics"

it's one thing to look at WR and see whether they caught or dropped the ball

these sites don't know what the assignment is for an OL so it's almost impossible to know if he graded out correctly. only the team's coaches know for sure.

Cleveland for example gave up a ton of sacks. That often happens when a QB stinks. who was CLE QB last year i can't even remember without looking it up. Or when a team is playing from behind.

Put it another way how would Eli Manning look with Joe Thomas and Alex Mack? The end result is more about the QB than anything else. Even if we grant King Dunalp is amazing for the sake of argument, the Chargers never had an above average OL last year. Phillip Rivers and Keenan Allen were productive despite the OL not because of it.
but thanks for the feedback, honestly the criticism helps it get better. I feel like these rankings have been improving in quality year over year.

I agree that it is not a 1-1 relationship and it is very hard to say how much the 5 players on the offensive line have an affect on the overall performance of the offense. I would say they have some affect but never meant to suggest 100% responsibility lies with only 45% of the 11 players on the field.

I think the adjusted line yards may tell a part of that story, but only a part. That is why I am trying to pick your brain a bit here and maybe learn your opinion about how much of an impact a line ranking might have on an offenses performance?

It could be that Newton is responsible for those extra sacks given up, I have not seen how many times he was hurried. Perhaps that was consistent with the previous 2 seasons but the pass rusher got home more frequently?.Or has Cam Newton dipped his toe into the phone booth? You see that is the main question I am asking here, is if Newton regressed on his own while the offensive line played better? Because that is a concern for me in evaluating a 3rd year QB
the correlation between OL ranking and fantasy points is a million dollar question. I still struggle with it.

In general these rankings are most useful for tiebreakers and matchups. If you are deciding a lineup (or a draft pick) between two similar players and one has a great OL and the other has a terrible one, that might be the tie breaker.

I've been trying to get DL rankings going and then we could do matchups (I.e. the league's best OL against the league's worst front 7). But that's probably not going to happen this year.

I prefer looking at hits to sacks. A great QB can get rid of the ball but usually takes a hit if it's close. Sacks tend to be higher for teams who have QBs that burp the baby. But even hit stats can be inflated, as the REALLY great QBs even avoid hits.

I remember for years the Colts were said to have such an awesome OL while Peyton Manning was there. The announcers would go wild talking about how great they were. As soon as Manning left it became apparent they were awful.

It is possible Cam regressed. Maybe he was hurt. Maybe the offensive system put him in bad spots or maybe it was a problem with his receivers. So many variables. I honestly can't answer these questions. I just focus on the OL and rely on the rest of the footballguys to tell me these insights just like everyone else.

as for Carolina's OL my gut instinct is forget the sack and YPC stats from last year. It is not the same line. there's just a ton of uncertainty right now. It's not clear who any of the starters will be for sure except Kalil and probably Silatolu. Chandler/Bell need to be sorted out (who is the LT, who is the RT) at RG will Kugabila beat out Garry Williams? If you are going into the year with your best player retired and 3 of the 5 spots are fluid, that's not great. If anything they might be rated too highly in these rankings. The model likes all -pro centers.

 
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Cleveland for example gave up a ton of sacks. That often happens when a QB stinks. who was CLE QB last year i can't even remember without looking it up.
Yikes. Good thing you aren't rating QBs. :doh:

 
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Where's the substance? These rankings don't seem to take into account what actually happens on the field.

Just one example is Dunlap. By Football outsiders metrics he was the best run blocking LT (PFF also graded him out very highly among LTs). It also reflected what happened on the field.

Yet you have his run blocking graded as average (which was the case in Phillys system).

Your rankings seem to be completely subjective.

Cleveland who you have as the top line gave up the third most sacks I believe.

Philly is even worse using footballoutsiders metrics.

Seattle had the worst pass protection per metrics and was bailed out by Wilson constantly.
Nothing has happened on the field, it's preseason.

My question to you would be why do you trust PFF or football outsiders "metrics"

it's one thing to look at WR and see whether they caught or dropped the ball

these sites don't know what the assignment is for an OL so it's almost impossible to know if he graded out correctly. only the team's coaches know for sure.

Cleveland for example gave up a ton of sacks. That often happens when a QB stinks. who was CLE QB last year i can't even remember without looking it up. Or when a team is playing from behind.

Put it another way how would Eli Manning look with Joe Thomas and Alex Mack? The end result is more about the QB than anything else. Even if we grant King Dunalp is amazing for the sake of argument, the Chargers never had an above average OL last year. Phillip Rivers and Keenan Allen were productive despite the OL not because of it.

but thanks for the feedback, honestly the criticism helps it get better. I feel like these rankings have been improving in quality year over year.

I agree that it is not a 1-1 relationship and it is very hard to say how much the 5 players on the offensive line have an affect on the overall performance of the offense. I would say they have some affect but never meant to suggest 100% responsibility lies with only 45% of the 11 players on the field.

I think the adjusted line yards may tell a part of that story, but only a part. That is why I am trying to pick your brain a bit here and maybe learn your opinion about how much of an impact a line ranking might have on an offenses performance?

It could be that Newton is responsible for those extra sacks given up, I have not seen how many times he was hurried. Perhaps that was consistent with the previous 2 seasons but the pass rusher got home more frequently?.Or has Cam Newton dipped his toe into the phone booth? You see that is the main question I am asking here, is if Newton regressed on his own while the offensive line played better? Because that is a concern for me in evaluating a 3rd year QB
the correlation between OL ranking and fantasy points is a million dollar question. I still struggle with it.

In general these rankings are most useful for tiebreakers and matchups. If you are deciding a lineup (or a draft pick) between two similar players and one has a great OL and the other has a terrible one, that might be the tie breaker.

I've been trying to get DL rankings going and then we could do matchups (I.e. the league's best OL against the league's worst front 7). But that's probably not going to happen this year.

I prefer looking at hits to sacks. A great QB can get rid of the ball but usually takes a hit if it's close. Sacks tend to be higher for teams who have QBs that burp the baby. But even hit stats can be inflated, as the REALLY great QBs even avoid hits.

I remember for years the Colts were said to have such an awesome OL while Peyton Manning was there. The announcers would go wild talking about how great they were. As soon as Manning left it became apparent they were awful.

It is possible Cam regressed. Maybe he was hurt. Maybe the offensive system put him in bad spots or maybe it was a problem with his receivers. So many variables. I honestly can't answer these questions. I just focus on the OL and rely on the rest of the footballguys to tell me these insights just like everyone else.

as for Carolina's OL my gut instinct is forget the sack and YPC stats from last year. It is not the same line. there's just a ton of uncertainty right now. It's not clear who any of the starters will be for sure except Kalil and probably Silatolu. Chandler/Bell need to be sorted out (who is the LT, who is the RT) at RG will Kugabila beat out Garry Williams? If you are going into the year with your best player retired and 3 of the 5 spots are fluid, that's not great. If anything they might be rated too highly in these rankings. The model likes all -pro centers.
Ok so let's say the QB is responsible. Cleveland hasn't exactly upgraded the position. Again, what exactly are you using to make these line rankings? At first glance it seems completely subjective without taking virtually anything that occurred last season into account.

One last point, the offensive system is a much better predictor than QB IMO. Minnesota for example will give up sacks this year. Why? Norv's love of 7 step drops. He simply doesn't believe in getting the ball out quickly.

 
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Pots said:
Yikes. Good thing you aren't rating QBs. :doh:
this is a fair comment. it's not easy to look at the offensive line and the QB/RB/WR ball stuff at the same time. I tend to skim on the skills and rely on genius like Joe and Sig on the QBs.

Beerguzzler said:
Ok so let's say the QB is responsible. Cleveland hasn't exactly upgraded the position.Again, what exactly are you using to make these line rankings? At first glance it seems completely subjective without taking virtually anything that occurred last season into account.

One last point, the offensive system is a much better predictor than QB IMO. Minnesota for example will give up sacks this year. Why? Norv's love of 7 step drops. He simply doesn't believe in getting the ball out quickly.
The Browns used a first rounder at QB. Maybe they didn't upgrade the position but they are taking chances and that's good.

as for the system that is absolutely true and a great point, The disconnect maybe is I don't much trust the sack stats either until it gets egregious (like the Giants last season). I have the Vikings at 7 so maybe we agree on their quality?

the Bills had a system with Ryan Fitzpatrick that was all about 1 or 3 step drops but that didn't make the Bills a great OL just cause they didn't give up sacks.

As for the rankings, Warning this is going to be a long read.

they are analysis based on mix of the following:

  • resume
  • cohesion
  • film
  • stats (pressures/YPC)
  • written research (beat writers, etc)
in the preseason it is more about the resume and cohesion and where we left off last year... During the season it becomes more about reacting to what is happening from week to week.

Resume sounds dumb I admit but it's a catch all for everything in the player's experience. It ultimately starts from when they are draft prospects, I have another site called Draftdaddy for about 10+ years and it's gotten to the point where almost all of these guys have a starting point in the draft. Guys like Terron Armstead ok sure is a bit of a catch up when they get into the league but the internet has helped with that. Other guys like Taylor Lewan are on tv every week.

Resume also includes current honors. I trust the coaches and the players who vote for 2/3 of the Pro Bowl more than the metrics. Yes I know the Pro Bowl is bull####. But the fans aren't stuffing the ballots for their favorite guard those guys usually really are the best. There are snubs but I account for that later in the grading.

as for my resume, I'm not calling myself a scout but I am a reporter. I've seen many of these guys at the Senior Bowl every year. It's actually how I met the FBGs back in the day. That and my own experience, altho it was div III, I used to play guard in college.


Cohesion is vitally important. Lines that can maintain the same lineup will be better than lines that can't. IT's often about trust and knowing that your neighbor is not going to screw the team. I also maintain the depth charts for the site and week to week who is starting where makes a difference. If a line shuffles guys around they are in trouble. I count cohesion as a full starter. Half points are deducted for for on the fly position swaps.

Film I am not going to pretend I watch every minute of every football game. but do watch a ton of football. With the ticket, replay and the internet, it's not hard to see every OL, every week.

Stats are the hits, sacks and YPC stuff you guys are talking about and it is a factor during the season. Penalty stats are also used. But none of those things are happening in these July rankings. Cause unless the cohesion is perfect, last year's team is gone.

Written is when the coach shares his grades with the beat writers (oh happy day), But it's also about puff pieces to a certain extent, when a guy is dominant it trickles up through the media in underrated ways. These beat writers are the same ones who vote for All Pro teams and believe it or not, I know a couple of these reporters and can even ask them during the season if there's a particular grade I'm having trouble with.

So how do the grades work? Well, guys like Jason Peters get A+. Former All Pros and current Pro Bowlers are A's. The ones who get snubbed and former Pro Bowlers (like Nick Hardwick) grade out as B+.

After that it does get murky and part of me starting this thread is to find out from die hard fans who I messed up on (Loadholt was an oversight he should be graded out as a B+ snub).

Few starters grade out below C+. There guys on every bench lower than that and it usually takes a wild set of injuries before the NFL starts trotting out D's and F's at the OL. It does happen though eventually every year and by the end it often becomes about who is healthy to a certain extent.

The model weighs tackles 2x centers 1.5x and guards 1x. Cohesion is like a guard. Sixth man is a half of that. OL coach is a fraction of a point.

So yeah this sounds arbitrary to hand out grades based on Pro bowls and beat writers opinions but it's actually a alot of data points when you average it all out and keep it up to date for injuries and breakout performances. The grades as a group are perpetually moving but the individual grades don't move fast. An A player will stay an A player even if he had a bad week. Upgrades and downgrades to individuals happen quarterly every four weeks.


Don't purposely use the PFF metrics (or anyone else's data) to grade these lines. That is someone else's work and I want no part of using/stealing it. I respect what they do and their hard work but I tend towards OL as an art not a science.

I thank anyone who has had the patience to read through this way too long explanation.

 
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As a die-hard Bears fan, I was surprised to see them ranked so high. Don't get me wrong, I think OC Kromer is an O-line whisperer, but I just don't think they have the elite talent to be ranked 5th. As a perpetual Forte owner, I hope you're right!

EDIT: I realize that Cleveland's O-line has been consistently excellent, but will that talent result in yards/TDs for Tate or West?
:goodposting:

That plus I usually felt Cutler had less time to throw than most QBs last season. Very surprised to see the Bears at 5.
while that may be true, it wouldn't surprise me if it was just a visual illusion due to cutler holding the ball longer than most qb, making it seem like he's always under pressure.

would you say mccown had more or less time to throw?

 
Matt thanks for the article.

I am currently working on Carolina Panthers projections and I noticed that the Panthers gave up significantly more sacks in 2013 (43sk 336yds 8.3%/pass attempt) than the previous 2 seasons (36 6.9% and 35 6.3%) despite fewer total pass attempts.

I also noticed their rushing yards/carry has gone down significantly as well, while rushing attempts have increased.

2013 483ra 2026yds 4.2ypc 14TD
2012 462ra 2088yds 4.5ypc 21TD
2011 445ra 2408yds 5.4ypc 26TD
This really made me wonder about the offensive line performance, which based on these numbers is in decline.

But when I looked up information on the Panthers offensive line I hear a different story-

PFF ranked the Panthers offensive line as 7th overall in 2013 an improvement from the ranking of 27th overall in 2012. Almost all of that improvement was based on outstanding grades for Jordan Gross for most of the season. Of course now Gross has retired. So does this mean the Panthers will fall back to 2012 level of 27th? This indicates to me that Gross is a pretty big deal. However it does not explain why the key performance stats (sacks ypc TD) were all much worse in 2013.

FBO information tells perhaps a better story with the adjusted line yards being 5th best in the league in 2011 before falling back to 30th in 2012 and 14th in 2013.

Going through all of the players who had rushing attempts DeAngelo Williams has not had over 5ypc in the past 2 seasons and to a lesser extent Steve Smith has not done as well in this area as he did in 2011. So that may be due to age and decline of these 2 players, not the offensive line. It still does not account for why Newton did not run the ball as well or why he took more sacks.

Thanks for another perspective on this. :thumbup:
the carolina o-line looks like a dumpster fire, rigtht now, w/o gross

edit: and btw, not to detract or distract in any way from this guy's rankings, or try to drive traffic ---- but if anybody has any interest in a quick eyeball of pff's rankings just to compare and contrast, and maybe spark discussion, you can check them out here before their paywall goes up.

 
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Not sure if this is interesting to any, but just came across this article by a Redskins blogger:

Building a Franchise - Left TackleNext to quarterback, I view left tackle as the most important position on a football team, ranking it a hair above a lock-down corner, a pass rushing defensive end or outside linebacker, and a game-changing wide receiver.


In this edition of "Building a Franchise", I will take a look at the ever-so-vital left tackle position, and compare what the Redskins have in Trent Williams, with some other prominent, young left tackles around the league. Now remember, just as I did with quarterback, skill, combined with age and potential will be taken into account, so you may not see a player like Jason Peters on my list, even though he's a pretty darn good left tackle.

Trent Williams - Trent Williams has everything you look for in a franchise left tackle. He is a mountain of a man, measuring at 6'5" and weighing north of 325 pounds. He has long arms, thick legs, and plays with an attitude. His best attribute is his quick feet and athleticism. For an offensive linemen, Williams is an athletic freak. He sets up very quickly in his kick-slide in pass protection, and has the ankle flexion to mirror the quickest defenders. His hands are strong, and once he gets them on an opponent, they are not going anywhere. He is excellent in the run game, using that powerful base, strong hands, and good leverage to maul defenders. He may be the best offensive tackle in the league when it comes to playing in space.

Joe Thomas - If you were to build a prototypical left tackle on Madden, you would have Joe Thomas. Thomas is a technician in every sense of the word. There is not a weakness to his game, and his multiple All-Pro nominations will attest to this. Thomas has some of the best hands I've seen on a left tackle since the great Jonathan Ogden. He is a superior run blocker, who can excel in any system. Thomas was one collegiate tackle who came into the league completely NFL ready, and his level of play has been at a Pro Bowl level from day one.

Ryan Clady - It's hard to believe Clady is just 27 years old. It seems like he's been in the league for over a decade. Clady is one of the best pass blockers in the league, and he is no slouch in the run game either. Although he is not seen as a mauler, he uses exceptional foot quickness, perfect hand placement, and flawless technique to dominate defenders. It's hard to believe this guy lasted until the 12th pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

Eugene Monroe - Monroe has been viewed as one of the NFL's best pass protectors since he entered the league in 2009. He displays flawless technique, and when he's on his game, there are few better. Originally drafted by Jacksonville, Monroe was traded to Baltimore last October, and the Ravens recently extended him through the 2018 season, making him a cornerstone of their offensive line for years to come.

Russell Okung - The Okung/Williams debate may go on for another decade, but I think it's safe to say as of the writing of this piece, that Williams is at a slightly higher level in their respective careers. Injuries have stunted Okung's growth a bit, as he's had some ankle issues he's had to play through, but make no doubt about it, when healthy, Okung is one of the best young tackles in the NFL today. When he first came into the NFL, Okung was viewed as a more polished product, with a little less upside than Trent Williams. Being more NFL ready, certainly helped during his rookie season, and there is no reason to think, barring injury, that he can't further elevate his play to the next level of eliteness.

Tyron Smith - Smith is a notch below the other left tackles on this list, but his potential is enormous. He is a physical specimen, standing at 6'5" 318, and has the athleticism of an NFL tight end. Functional strength is one area Smith needs to improve on, but at 23 years old, he's got plenty of time to do so.
Attributes of a Good Offensive TackleThe offensive tackle position is one of the toughest to play in the NFL. It takes a rare breed of size, strength, technique, quickness and athleticism to succeed. Unlike their counterparts to the inside, the tackle HAS to be strong enough to move defensive ends and defensive tackles, quick enough to drop into his kick-slide against a speed-rusher, solid enough in his hands to deliver a jarring blow to a defender that will knock him off his pursuit path, and agile enough to work in space against a smaller linebacker or corner. They also often work against the opposing teams best pass rusher in one-on-one situations.


Yes, these big men a truly a rare breed!

So what separates the average-to-good ones, from the All-Pros? Below are a few attributes you should look for in your starting left or right offensive tackle.

Footwork: This is by far the most important attribute an offensive tackle can have/develop. Footwork is key to getting oneself into proper position in both the run, and passing game. In the outside zone(the stretch, toss or jet), the tackle must be able to reach the end man on the line of scrimmage(EMOLS). A quick, compact reach step is needed to attack the outside shoulder of the EMOLS. The defenders job is to keep the outside arm free, and turn the play back inside, for the inside linebackers to make the tackle. If the offensive tackle is too slow, or takes a false step, the play can be disrupted before it even develops.

On passing sets, the kick-slide is instrumental. If the tackle is facing a speed-rusher, it is imperative for them to get out of their stance, maintain the proper leverage and balance, and slide into their set with fluidity and quickness. A false, or slow step here can allow the defender to gain the edge, and put immediate pressure on the passer.

Hand Placement: Almost as equally important as footwork, hand placement is vital in the battle between the offensive tackle and the defender. Battles are often won or lost because of hand placement. This is a technique that most high school offensive tackles lack when they enter college, but will develop, and continue to refine, as they work their way into the NFL. The offensive tackle must have sound hand placement in the run game. There are two reasons for this. First, the hands need to be inside the framework of the defenders body, or a holding penalty is likely to be called. Second, the hands need to fight to stay inside the defenders hands. Much like a bench press, the arms need to stay in line with the body. The strongest part of the arm is the triceps. The maximum strength out-put of the triceps is achieved when the arms are closer to the body. Fighting to gain that inside leverage happens on every play in the NFL, and those that are successful usually win one-on-one match-ups.

The hand-punch is a weapon for the offensive tackle in pass-pro. Delivering a good punch to the defender can knock him off balance, and divert his path to the quarterback. You often hear scouts use the term "heavy hands" when referring to an offensive tackle, and believe me, this is a good thing. One of the best offensive tackles I have even had the pleasure of watching was Jonathan Ogden. He had some of the heaviest hands I have ever seen. His punch was so jarring, that he would often d-rail a pass-rusher withing two seconds of the ball being snapped.

Leverage/Balance: My ideal height for an offensive tackle would be 6'5". This is because leverage is so important in winning the one-on-one battles. The average height of a defensive end in the NFL is just over 6'4" The average height of 3-4 outside linebacker is 6'3". If you get an offensive tackle that is too tall, you often hear the term "waist-bender" associated with that individual. This terms is eluding to the tackle bending at the waist to lower his point of attack, rather than sinking their hips, and exploding, into the defender. When a offensive tackle bends at the waist to take on a blocker, they immediately lose balance. Their center of power is no longer over their hips, and this causes them to lose the ability to be powerful, and to counter moves by the defender.

In pass-pro, this is huge. The offensive tackle must be able to sink into their kick-slide, and sit back in their stance with the legs set underneath them, and the hips nice and low, so they are able to come into the defender with both power and balance. If a tackle over-extends, the defender can easily exploit this by ripping through the body, or knocking down the outside arm/shoulder to gain the edge. Getting off-balance, or losing the game of leverage will undoubtedly cause the tackle to lose the battle.

Lets now take a look at the offensive tackles on the Redskins roster, and see which of these attributes each has, or may be lacking.

Trent Williams: 6'5" 328 - Trent has the perfect body type for a left tackle in the NFL. He is not too tall, is massive in the lower body, and has exceptional footwork, quickness and agility. He sometimes tends to lunge at defenders instead of sitting back over his hips, and waiting to counter a move, but I have seen vast improvement in this area over the last two season. His kick-slide is really what separates him from other good offensive tackles. His feet always seem to be in the right position, and even if he is caught out of position, he has the quickness to counter. The one area I could stand to see some improvement is the hand-punch. Aside from this, his size, quickness, leverage, balance, footwork and hand placement are all at a Pro Bowl level.

Tyler Polumbus: 6'8" 305 - Polumbus has a few things going against him. First, he is so tall, that he almost always bends at his waist, rather than sinking his hips. He can sometimes get away with this in the run game, but we have seen him get beat far too often in pass-pro, as he can easily get off-balance, and lose the game of leverage. Polumbus also struggles with his technique and foot-speed, and will often just be getting into his kick-slide when the defender is already on his outside shoulder. His hand-punch is average, and his hand placement in the run game can often get outside the defenders body, causing him to be less powerful than he should be.

Maurice Hurt: 6'3" 329 - Hurt has the size of an offensive guard, but that is not always a bad thing. He does have long arms for his frame, and uses them effectively in pass-pro. Hurts best attribute is his massive lower body. He can generate a ton of power from the hips and legs, and this is why he is very effective in the run game. He also displays good foot-speed, and technique which allows him to get into correct position in both run and pass sets. He still needs to work on his hands, but thankfully that's something than can be easily taught.

Tom Compton: 6'5" 308 - Compton has the ideal size for an NFL tackle. He is very light on his feet, shows good quickness getting out of his stance, and displays a really good hand-punch. The one area he could improve on is lower-body strength. I really like the combination of balance and leverage I saw from Compton last preseason. He has the technical makings of a good offensive tackle.

Tony Pashos: 6'6" 325 - Pashos is a good technician. This is the best attribute of his game. He's not the quickest guy in short areas, but he makes up for that with good technique, hand placement and awareness. His strength at the point of attack is adequate, but could be better. He's not the road-grader that his size would merit.

Jeremy Trueblood: 6'8" 320 - Of all the offensive tackles of the roster, I believe Trueblood has the worst combination of quickness, leverage, balance, and hand placement. What I do think he brings to the table is strength and attitude. He is a good run-blocker, and when he gets his hands of a defender, they are usually done. What he also does, which gets him into trouble, is lunge at defenders, and grabs outside the body.
http://www.hogshaven.com/2014/7/19/5918061/building-a-franchise-left-tackle

http://www.hogshaven.com/2013/6/1/4386090/attributes-of-a-good-offensive-tackle

 
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Where's the substance? These rankings don't seem to take into account what actually happens on the field.

Just one example is Dunlap. By Football outsiders metrics he was the best run blocking LT (PFF also graded him out very highly among LTs). It also reflected what happened on the field.

Yet you have his run blocking graded as average (which was the case in Phillys system).

Your rankings seem to be completely subjective.

Cleveland who you have as the top line gave up the third most sacks I believe.

Philly is even worse using footballoutsiders metrics.

Seattle had the worst pass protection per metrics and was bailed out by Wilson constantly.
Nothing has happened on the field, it's preseason.

My question to you would be why do you trust PFF or football outsiders "metrics"

it's one thing to look at WR and see whether they caught or dropped the ball

these sites don't know what the assignment is for an OL so it's almost impossible to know if he graded out correctly. only the team's coaches know for sure.

Cleveland for example gave up a ton of sacks. That often happens when a QB stinks. who was CLE QB last year i can't even remember without looking it up. Or when a team is playing from behind.

Put it another way how would Eli Manning look with Joe Thomas and Alex Mack? The end result is more about the QB than anything else. Even if we grant King Dunalp is amazing for the sake of argument, the Chargers never had an above average OL last year. Phillip Rivers and Keenan Allen were productive despite the OL not because of it.

but thanks for the feedback, honestly the criticism helps it get better. I feel like these rankings have been improving in quality year over year.

I agree that it is not a 1-1 relationship and it is very hard to say how much the 5 players on the offensive line have an affect on the overall performance of the offense. I would say they have some affect but never meant to suggest 100% responsibility lies with only 45% of the 11 players on the field.

I think the adjusted line yards may tell a part of that story, but only a part. That is why I am trying to pick your brain a bit here and maybe learn your opinion about how much of an impact a line ranking might have on an offenses performance?

It could be that Newton is responsible for those extra sacks given up, I have not seen how many times he was hurried. Perhaps that was consistent with the previous 2 seasons but the pass rusher got home more frequently?.Or has Cam Newton dipped his toe into the phone booth? You see that is the main question I am asking here, is if Newton regressed on his own while the offensive line played better? Because that is a concern for me in evaluating a 3rd year QB
the correlation between OL ranking and fantasy points is a million dollar question. I still struggle with it.

In general these rankings are most useful for tiebreakers and matchups. If you are deciding a lineup (or a draft pick) between two similar players and one has a great OL and the other has a terrible one, that might be the tie breaker.

I've been trying to get DL rankings going and then we could do matchups (I.e. the league's best OL against the league's worst front 7). But that's probably not going to happen this year.

I prefer looking at hits to sacks. A great QB can get rid of the ball but usually takes a hit if it's close. Sacks tend to be higher for teams who have QBs that burp the baby. But even hit stats can be inflated, as the REALLY great QBs even avoid hits.

I remember for years the Colts were said to have such an awesome OL while Peyton Manning was there. The announcers would go wild talking about how great they were. As soon as Manning left it became apparent they were awful.

It is possible Cam regressed. Maybe he was hurt. Maybe the offensive system put him in bad spots or maybe it was a problem with his receivers. So many variables. I honestly can't answer these questions. I just focus on the OL and rely on the rest of the footballguys to tell me these insights just like everyone else.

as for Carolina's OL my gut instinct is forget the sack and YPC stats from last year. It is not the same line. there's just a ton of uncertainty right now. It's not clear who any of the starters will be for sure except Kalil and probably Silatolu. Chandler/Bell need to be sorted out (who is the LT, who is the RT) at RG will Kugabila beat out Garry Williams? If you are going into the year with your best player retired and 3 of the 5 spots are fluid, that's not great. If anything they might be rated too highly in these rankings. The model likes all -pro centers.
Ok so let's say the QB is responsible. Cleveland hasn't exactly upgraded the position.Again, what exactly are you using to make these line rankings? At first glance it seems completely subjective without taking virtually anything that occurred last season into account.

One last point, the offensive system is a much better predictor than QB IMO. Minnesota for example will give up sacks this year. Why? Norv's love of 7 step drops. He simply doesn't believe in getting the ball out quickly.
Cleveland has upgraded both the QB and OG positions. Weedon took FOREVER to locate a target & get the ball out. Hoyer was a vast upgrade, while Manziel promises to be elusive enough to reduce sacks allowed.

The OL failed to dominate, IMO, due to the holes at guard. Those have been filled. I am hopeful that we see it on the field. :popcorn:

 

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