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2014 Player/Team Spotlight -- Carolina Panthers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: Carolina Panthers

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
Recommended Players to Discuss (Player Page links provided):

  • QB Cam Newton
  • RB Jonathan Stewart
  • RB DeAngelo Williams
  • WR Kelvin Benjamin
  • WR Jerricho Cotchery
  • WR Jason Avant
  • TE Greg Olsen
Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
  • FBG Projections
 
It’s interesting to see a lot of prognostication that has the Panthers sliding back to the pack and while a repeat of their 12-4 record might be a tall order, I get the sense that most of the NFL & FF community is writing off the Panthers as a team that got on a hot streak in 2013 and can’t replicate that. But what I don’t get is the notion that with Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell gone, that the Panthers have no weapons in the passing game to balance out a strong and diverse rushing attack. That’s Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell. I think it’s faulty logic to pinpoint a weakness on a team as its potential downfall when that same weakness didn’t stand in the way of them being successful. Now of more concern are the retirements of Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton who both graded out very well in 2013 and were essential in helping CAR establish their ball control tempo and pace. But ultimately, I think the Panthers defense has gotten to a point that will allow the Panthers to truly build an offense around a dominant rushing attack led by Newton and surprisingly, Jonathan Stewart.

Cam Newton – Gone were immature ramblings of post-game press conferences and sulking body language. Replaced by a more stoic and take charge veteran personality, Cam Newton had his best season as a pro insofar as putting his team in a position to succeed. While 12 wins will limit the exposure to a bad attitude, Newton has spoken about needing to control and change that aspect of his leadership persona and it showed last year. From a FF perspective though, Newton posted his lowest seasonal totals in the following categories:

Pass Attempts
YPA
Passing Yards
Rushing Attempts
Rushing Yards
Rushing TD’s.
YPC


Whatever it was, less Cam Newton meant more success for the Panthers. It probably also helped that a heaping a defensive talent realizing it’s individual and collective potential changed this from a team built around the multi-talented Newton to one built around a defense that took the pressure off of Newton and the CAR offense.

Newton’s strength as a FF QB is his goal line prowess. Despite the fact that he scored but 6 rushing TD’s in 2013, his fewest as a pro, he remains CAR’s best weapon inside the 5. In leagues where rushing TD’s are scored 2 points higher than passing TD’s…Newton almost starts every season with the equivalent of 10 passing TD’s, So long as he throws 20 TD’s…that’s very solid TD production from your QB. Strangely enough, Newton has emerged as one of FF’s most efficient QB’s. But interestingly enough, Newton has become more of a seasonal accumulator versus a prolific producer. The one game Newton threw for over 300 (308) yards in 2013, he threw 3 INT’s. If CAR’s defense is as staunch as it was in 2013, I don’t see the Panthers needing to rely on Newton’s arm all that much which means that for the most part, I think his ceiling in terms of passing yards for 2014 is 3500. Coupled with the fact that while Smith and LaFell were amongst the leagues worst starting group of receivers, Newton had developed along with those two as his ‘go-to’ guys out wide. Kelvin Benjamin might be a good start in remaking that group but Newton may lose some of the efficiency he developed last season as this transition takes hold. Ultimately, Cam has become a solid ‘safe choice’ QB and now that he’s being drafted at QB10 (versus QB5 in 2013 & 2013), I think he represents some very solid value. A great mid-round target.

DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart – I’m willing to guarantee that come that 3rd preseason week, that Jonathan Stewart will have already jumped the shark on the RB sleepers list. Stewart when healthy has shown traits of being a true difference maker at the position, but has rarely been healthy. And it’s not that he’s just been unhealthy, it’s been one particular ailment, his feet, that have given him most of not all of his problems. But now, we are hearing reports that Stewart is truly back to full health for perhaps the first time since 2009. When you couple that with the fact the DeAngelo Williams is 31, could the Panthers find a way to get Stewart 225-250 touches if he stays healthy. If that prospect looks realistic…and there is a long way to go before even being able to consider it…Stewart could be a steal as early as Round 7. Williams on the other hand is an RB that unfortunately and unfairly carries a disappointment moniker. In 2008-2009, Williams was one of the most prolific RB’s in the NFL (in 2008 alone he scored 20 TD’s.). But Carolina has chosen to be careful with Williams and not overwork him under any circumstance. As such, his 227 touches in 2013 were his most since 2009. The last time Williams and Stewart were healthy, it was almost a straight RBBC with both back taking on half the role regardless of situation. But with CAR’s passing game weapons either extremely green or old, I could see Williams transitioning to much more of a passing down RB. While his reception totals have been pedestrian the last two years (39 total), his YPR has been exceptional (13.3).

Mike Tolbert – If you were asked the following question – who led Panthers RB’s in number of snaps played in 2013, would your answer have been Mike Tolbert? By 131 snaps? Tolbert is one of those jack-of-all –trades master of none types that finds his ways toward significant playing time everywhere he goes. For the Panthers last year, he was their physical running compliment to Willliams. He was asked to block on 295 plays (compared to 110 for Williams). He also helped alleviate some of the short yardage burden on Newton when teams started to gear their focus inside the 5 on him. The problem for Tolbert is that he’s always been a pedestrian runner and if Stewart is truly healthy, then while Tolbert may still be on the field a good deal as a lead blocking FB, I can’t see his touches being what they were in 2013 when he was actually a very solid FLEX player.

Kelvin Benjamin – Between Smith/LaFell/Ginn last year, they caught 14 TD’s. At an average of less than 5 TD’s per player, I’m somewhat questioning why there are some folks who think Benjamin might excel his rookie year as a red zone threat. For one, inside the 10 yard line, Newton has as many rushing TD’s in his career as he does passing TD’s (22). So to think that Benjamin can become a red zone monster early in his career seems a faulty premise. Consider Julio Jones, a player who was more polished coming out of college, yet has still struggled to find consistency inside the 10. He may not be 6’6, but his physical dimensions aren’t a draw back in this part of the field. The point I’m making is that in tight quarters, there are some nuances to finding room that go deeper than just being 6’6. Do I think he could replicate the production of LaFell. Potentially, but he’s going to be a work in progress and those looking to find a diamond in the rough on the strength of early TD numbers will most likely be disappointed.

Greg Olsen – Olsen is the epitome of a TE that seems to get drafted higher than he should through no fault of his own. When I think about the TE position, there are the elites who we know about. And then there is a large group of TE’s that fall within a general range of 700-850 receiving yards and 6-8 TD’s. And while Olsen falls on the top end of the spectrum with regard to production in this range, the fantasy impact delivered between the high and low end of this range isn’t commiserate with the draft premium you have to pay to acquire a guy like Olsen IMO. Compare Olsen with Martellus Bennett.

Olsen: 73/816/6
Bennett: 65/759/5


Currently on FFC, Olsen if TE8, Bennett is TE14…but that represents a 4 round difference; Olsen in Round 8, Bennett in Round 12. Now, admittedly Olsen stands to benefit since Smith/LaFell/Ginn have bolted CAR. But at the same time, that trio was hardly impressive and yet Olsen produced to the line above. Is there that much upside to explore here. I’m thinking tht Olsen is a good bet to perform to the level he did last year, but I’m not willing to pay n 8th round price to acquire him.

Jerricho Cotchery/Jason Avant - Hardly an inspiring duo to replace the departed trio of Smith/LaFell/Ginn…Cotchery somehow exploded for 10 TD’s in 2013. And this speaks to experience being just as, if not more. Valuable than size in close quarters. 6 of Cotchery’s 10 TD’s were from within the 10. Granted, Cotchery was working with an experienced QB in Roethlisberger, but clearly he was able to develop a quick bond of trust. So this is another reason why I believe that Benjamin’s TD upside will be limited in 2014. That said, both Avant and Cotchery profile as situational players at this point in their careers so neither will be worth much FF wise. But they will serve to siphon off potential for other passing game outlets.

Predictions:

Newton: 299 Completions 489 Attempts 3334 Passing Yards 20 TD’s 12 INT’s; 115 Rushes 677 Rushing Yards 8 TD’s.
Stewart: 201 Rushes 930 Rushing Yards 6 TD’s 18 Receptions 121 Receiving Yards
Williams: 126 Rushes 533 Rushing Yards 3 TD’s, 46 Receptions 394 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.
Tolbert: 64 Rushes 205 Rushing Yards 5 TD’s, 14 Receptions 87 Receiving Yards 1 TD.
Olsen: 77 Receptions 831 Receiving Yards 6 TD’s.
Benjamin: 38 Receptions 512 Receiving Yards 4 TD’s.
Cotchery: 59 Receptions 716 Receiving Yards 4 TD’s.
Avant: 32 Receptions 409 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.


 
There are only three guys I want any part of this year on Carolina, but I have a very hard time getting excited about anybody on this team given my anticipation of the o-line being awful.

Stewart - love his talent and hold out some hope for a relatively healthy season. But like I said, the line is in shambles. As good as he is, he'll need some holes to have value, as he's still going to lose goal line looks to Tolbert and Newton, despite Stewart's size making him a good fit at the goal line.

Olsen - hard not to like him. He goes a couple rounds later than guys I view to be similar in terms of fantasy potential. I probably won't land him, but won't hesitate to draft him if he's available and the only guys left on the board that I am targeting can be had a round or two later.

Cotchery - he screams value to me - ridiculous value at WR84. He's not old for a WR yet, but he's dependable on an offense sorely lacking WRs. I think he's got a very good shot to finish as a WR3 in this offense unless Benjamin shocks me and performs well as a rookie. He had four seasons in a row where he finished as a WR3 or better before seeing his targets drop below 100 for the next 4 years. I think he returns to 100+ targets and finishes with at least 60/750/5.

 
Not as big fan of Cotchery. I don't see WR3 upside and his WR84 ranking is about right imo. Cam Newton is still going to carve out his yards through the air or ground and will be a terror inside the 10 yard line, continuing to vulture TD's from the ground game.

My big targets for redraft ahead of their ADP are: Cam, Olsen, and the rookie Benjamin. I'll buy them all a round ahead of ADP. I'm selling on any of the Carolina RB's. Also, I think the Carolina defense regresses some this year as the entire division improved and the 12-4 record is bound to regress.

 
There are only three guys I want any part of this year on Carolina, but I have a very hard time getting excited about anybody on this team given my anticipation of the o-line being awful.

Stewart - love his talent and hold out some hope for a relatively healthy season. But like I said, the line is in shambles. As good as he is, he'll need some holes to have value, as he's still going to lose goal line looks to Tolbert and Newton, despite Stewart's size making him a good fit at the goal line.

Olsen - hard not to like him. He goes a couple rounds later than guys I view to be similar in terms of fantasy potential. I probably won't land him, but won't hesitate to draft him if he's available and the only guys left on the board that I am targeting can be had a round or two later.

Cotchery - he screams value to me - ridiculous value at WR84. He's not old for a WR yet, but he's dependable on an offense sorely lacking WRs. I think he's got a very good shot to finish as a WR3 in this offense unless Benjamin shocks me and performs well as a rookie. He had four seasons in a row where he finished as a WR3 or better before seeing his targets drop below 100 for the next 4 years. I think he returns to 100+ targets and finishes with at least 60/750/5.
Only thing I'll say about the OL -- it's certainly risky, but this team has been extremely high on Chandler the entire offseason. Then we get positive press from RW as follows:


After training with Panthers OT Nate Chandler the past two summers, Hall of Fame LT Jackie Slater claimed "there's no doubt in my mind he's a top left tackle."
A converted defensive tackle, 25-year-old Chandler made eight 2013 starts, six at guard and two at right tackle. He's now battling Byron Bell to start on Cam Newton's blind side. "He's mentally equipped to solve problems, and that's what you have to do to play offensive tackle in this league," said Slater, a seven-time Pro Bowler who's now the OL coach at Azusa Pacific University. "He's going to be a good offensive lineman in the National Football League for a very long time." Jul 14 - 1:52 PM
Source: ESPN.com
Now, I'm not saying he solves all the problems of Carolina's OL, but we've seen late round draft picks and UDFAs come in and provide league-average play at the OT positions. Chandler's been in the system for 3 years now and made starts at OT last year. He's run as the starting LT all offseason and will be given the first chance this fall. That leaves Byron Bell (again, not a great player, but league AVG) at RT. Ryan Khalil (arguably the best C in football) returns.

At the G spots, Carolina returns Aminu Silatolu at LG and likely starts Trai Turner at RG.

Here's the thing about all these guys -- and I cannot find the PFF stats because I'm not a premium subscriber, but I know I've read this before: they're vastly better at run blocking than pass blocking. Obviously Chandler is unproven, Turner is a rookie and an unknown, and Silatolu is returning from major injury, but there's *potential* here for this line to be mauling in the run game.

Let's just hope Cam doesn't get killed when he drops back to pass.

And Lord help me, I still believe in JStew.

 
JFS171 - that would be interesting if true. I recall reading that they had a decent PFF score as a unit, but that was largely because Gross had a spectacular score last year while the rest of the unit was pretty bad.

 
I don't know if you can find the run/pass grade splits on pff, but check out the 2014 carolina depth chart for a thumbnail, as well as articles like the focus on cam, changing OL and qb under pressure

 

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