2014 Player/Team Spotlight -- New York Jets (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: New York Jets

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Recommended Players to Discuss:

• QB Geno Smith
• QB Michael Vick
• RB Chris Johnson
• RB Chris Ivory
• RB Bilal Powell
• WR Eric Decker
• WR Stephen Hill
• WR Jeremy Kerley
• TE Jace Amaro

Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
• FBG Projections

 

[lod01]

• :X

I think Chris Johnson could put up some good stats behind that OL but other than that, this place is a wasteland.

 

[FF Ninja]

It'll be very interesting to see how the QB competition plays out. If he has a capable QB, Decker could easily be a WR2 had at a WR3 price.

Also, I avoided Ivory last year, but think he's reach a price point (RB46 ADP) where he's a good buy this year. He crushed it during the second half of the season and I don't think Chris Johnson is going to be effective here.

 

[Sweet Love]

Here we go...lotta guessing when it comes to QB, but here are my thoughts:

Quarterback:

I don't think anyone here really can even project where they see this going, but maybe a "collective" grouping of stats will help. When coming up with these, I tried to assess what the OC has done in the past and how I "think" it will go with the QB (I see Geno winning out, and I see Vick getting some playing time).

Geno Smith - 255/400 - 63% - 3400 yards passing - 18 TDs/9 Ints, 70 rush attempts, 410 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

Michael Vick - 75/140 - 53% - 1050 yards passing - 7 TDs, 4 ints, 55 rush attempts, 400 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

You will see, the combined numbers do not wow, and where I think the Jets will improve, is with protecting the ball.

Running Back:

Chris Johnson: 210 rushes, 900 yards, 5 TDs - 47 receptions, 376 yards, 2 TDs

Chris Ivory : 200 rushes, 800 yards, 6 TDs - 4 receptions 32 yards, 0 TDs

Richardson/Powell: 30 rushes, 70 yards, 0 TDs - 15 receptions, 125 yards, 2 TDs

Wide Receiver:

Eric Decker - 75 - 1175 - 9

David Nelson - 45 - 600 - 2

Stephen Hill - 30 - 550 - 3

Jeremy Kerley - 55 - 700 - 2

Rookies: 25 - 350 - 2

Tight End:

Jeff Cumberland - 33 - 333 - 2

Jace Amaro - 30 - 450 - 3

Misc: Rushing - 100 yards, Receiving 100 yards

Overall, this is how I see it shaking out. While I see the Jets improving through the air and on the ground (would be tough not to), I also don't think there is a standout "guy" besides Decker on this team...a lot of spot start guys in deep leagues, or deeply rostered/unrosterable players in general.

 

[FF Ninja]

I sincerely doubt we see a QBBC, but I guess it is possible. My feeling is that if both guys see action next year, it'll be because the starter got hurt.

Also, I like Decker as a player, but I think those are extremely generous stats. 15.7 YPR? That would be a career high. I think 13 YPR is reasonable, with a slight hope for 14. Really depends on how they use him and how accurate his QB is downfield. I also think he'll be doing good to catch 30% of his teams receiving TDs. I think 75-1000-6 is about as much as one could reasonably hope for when drafting Decker. He could outperform that, but those are long odds we are talking about.

 

[Sweet Love]

I sincerely doubt we see a QBBC, but I guess it is possible. My feeling is that if both guys see action next year, it'll be because the starter got hurt.

Also, I like Decker as a player, but I think those are extremely generous stats. 15.7 YPR? That would be a career high. I think 13 YPR is reasonable, with a slight hope for 14. Really depends on how they use him and how accurate his QB is downfield. I also think he'll be doing good to catch 30% of his teams receiving TDs. I think 75-1000-6 is about as much as one could reasonably hope for when drafting Decker. He could outperform that, but those are long odds we are talking about.

At QB, I think these guys will have a high percentage chance of (1) getting injured due to running, (2) getting injured due to a hole in the line, or (3) getting replaced due to ineffectiveness...neither is a bona fide stud, and Rex must get to the playoffs this year.

I chose to have my WRs with larger YPR numbers because I think teams will be cheating some on the run game. If I am a DC, I would give that crew a few extra yards, knowing Geno/Vick will not be able to consistently march the field versus giving up the really big play. They do play Revis and Grimes twice, so maybe those are aggressive numbers for Decker...I just think the right coordinator is finally in town and will give Decker a lot of opportunities.

Good feedback!

 

[mphtrilogy]

Geno 24 tds 13 nits, 3800 yards, 350 yards rushing

Amaro 6 tds receiving, 75 recs, 700 yards

S hill 4 tds , 600 yards, 45 recs

Kerley, 82 catches, 1100 yards, 5 tds

Decker, 75 catches, 1050 yards, 6 tds

Chris j, 200 rushes 950 yards, 40 recs 350 yards, 7 tds

Chris ivory, 1000 yards, 210 rushing attempts, 6 tds, 10 recs

Bilal Powell 3 tds, 333 yards rushing,

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Quarterback:

I don't think anyone here really can even project where they see this going, but maybe a "collective" grouping of stats will help. When coming up with these, I tried to assess what the OC has done in the past and how I "think" it will go with the QB (I see Geno winning out, and I see Vick getting some playing time).

Geno Smith - 255/400 - 63% - 3400 yards passing - 18 TDs/9 Ints, 70 rush attempts, 410 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

Michael Vick - 75/140 - 53% - 1050 yards passing - 7 TDs, 4 ints, 55 rush attempts, 400 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

You will see, the combined numbers do not wow, and where I think the Jets will improve, is with protecting the ball.

I think I may utter "wow" if my fantasy QB put up 4,450 passing yards with 25 TDs and 810 rushing yards for another 8 TDs.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think they could have the number 1 punter in total yardage, if your league scores for that.

 

[Sweet Love]

Quarterback:

I don't think anyone here really can even project where they see this going, but maybe a "collective" grouping of stats will help. When coming up with these, I tried to assess what the OC has done in the past and how I "think" it will go with the QB (I see Geno winning out, and I see Vick getting some playing time).

Geno Smith - 255/400 - 63% - 3400 yards passing - 18 TDs/9 Ints, 70 rush attempts, 410 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

Michael Vick - 75/140 - 53% - 1050 yards passing - 7 TDs, 4 ints, 55 rush attempts, 400 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

You will see, the combined numbers do not wow, and where I think the Jets will improve, is with protecting the ball.

I think I may utter "wow" if my fantasy QB put up 4,450 passing yards with 25 TDs and 810 rushing yards for another 8 TDs.

That's just it...I don't see my fantasy QB from the Jets getting those numbers...I see them as a combo deal, discount the numbers if one truly starts all season.

Look at this line from the Bears last year (and no one has a foner over Cutler going into 2014):

Cutler/McCown - 4450 passing, 32 TDs passing, 13 INTs, 200 yards rushing, 1 TD

In 2013, more than 10 QBs individually passed for more than 25 TDs, and my projections are basically a combo deal (between Vick and Geno).

I probably should have clarified, that unless you play in a Team QB scenario, I don't see much value (besides backup) in either QB. In the end, I probably have 400 yards too many allotted for passing between the two.

 

[FF Ninja]

Quarterback:

I don't think anyone here really can even project where they see this going, but maybe a "collective" grouping of stats will help. When coming up with these, I tried to assess what the OC has done in the past and how I "think" it will go with the QB (I see Geno winning out, and I see Vick getting some playing time).

Geno Smith - 255/400 - 63% - 3400 yards passing - 18 TDs/9 Ints, 70 rush attempts, 410 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

Michael Vick - 75/140 - 53% - 1050 yards passing - 7 TDs, 4 ints, 55 rush attempts, 400 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

You will see, the combined numbers do not wow, and where I think the Jets will improve, is with protecting the ball.

I think I may utter "wow" if my fantasy QB put up 4,450 passing yards with 25 TDs and 810 rushing yards for another 8 TDs.

That's just it...I don't see my fantasy QB from the Jets getting those numbers...I see them as a combo deal, discount the numbers if one truly starts all season.

Look at this line from the Bears last year (and no one has a foner over Cutler going into 2014):

Cutler/McCown - 4450 passing, 32 TDs passing, 13 INTs, 200 yards rushing, 1 TD

In 2013, more than 10 QBs individually passed for more than 25 TDs, and my projections are basically a combo deal (between Vick and Geno).

I probably should have clarified, that unless you play in a Team QB scenario, I don't see much value (besides backup) in either QB. In the end, I probably have 400 yards too many allotted for passing between the two.

I could be wrong, but I think what he's saying is that even if you do play in a team QB league that it is extremely unlikely that the NYJ QB position is putting up those numbers. I'm surprised I didn't bother to add them up and come to the same conclusion.

You reference Chicago, but Cutler is actually a pretty good QB and McCown had the season of his life. As a team at the position, they had the 5th most fantasy points. So if better QBs with better WRs put up 4450/32 then I'd think the team production for NYJ QB would be closer to 3700/22. If Vick starts and stays healthy, I'd probably bump that up a little bit, but when was the last time that happened?

 

[jurb26]

So people are expecting a near 50/50 split of carries between Johnson and Ivory? Really? I think Johnson sees at least 230 carries in this offense. He isn't dead yet.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So people are expecting a near 50/50 split of carries between Johnson and Ivory? Really? I think Johnson sees at least 230 carries in this offense. He isn't dead yet.

I don't think anyone knows yet. The local word at first was the Ivory would still be the lead back with Johnson in a CoP role. More recently Morningwheig has stated he will ride the hot hand and Johnson can get "all he wants" as far as carries go. I think it will be some type of RBBC with Johson seeing the bigger slice of the pie.

Chris Johnson: 215c / 960 yards / 5 TDs / 34 rec / 265 yards / 2 TDs

Chris Ivory: 170c / 790 yards / 4 TDs / 8 rec / 45 yards

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Quarterback:

I don't think anyone here really can even project where they see this going, but maybe a "collective" grouping of stats will help. When coming up with these, I tried to assess what the OC has done in the past and how I "think" it will go with the QB (I see Geno winning out, and I see Vick getting some playing time).

Geno Smith - 255/400 - 63% - 3400 yards passing - 18 TDs/9 Ints, 70 rush attempts, 410 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

Michael Vick - 75/140 - 53% - 1050 yards passing - 7 TDs, 4 ints, 55 rush attempts, 400 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

You will see, the combined numbers do not wow, and where I think the Jets will improve, is with protecting the ball.

I think I may utter "wow" if my fantasy QB put up 4,450 passing yards with 25 TDs and 810 rushing yards for another 8 TDs.

That's just it...I don't see my fantasy QB from the Jets getting those numbers...I see them as a combo deal, discount the numbers if one truly starts all season.

Look at this line from the Bears last year (and no one has a foner over Cutler going into 2014):

Cutler/McCown - 4450 passing, 32 TDs passing, 13 INTs, 200 yards rushing, 1 TD

In 2013, more than 10 QBs individually passed for more than 25 TDs, and my projections are basically a combo deal (between Vick and Geno).

I probably should have clarified, that unless you play in a Team QB scenario, I don't see much value (besides backup) in either QB. In the end, I probably have 400 yards too many allotted for passing between the two.

I could be wrong, but I think what he's saying is that even if you do play in a team QB league that it is extremely unlikely that the NYJ QB position is putting up those numbers. I'm surprised I didn't bother to add them up and come to the same conclusion.

You reference Chicago, but Cutler is actually a pretty good QB and McCown had the season of his life. As a team at the position, they had the 5th most fantasy points. So if better QBs with better WRs put up 4450/32 then I'd think the team production for NYJ QB would be closer to 3700/22. If Vick starts and stays healthy, I'd probably bump that up a little bit, but when was the last time that happened?

Pretty much. I can't possibly see this team (even wanting to) throwing for 4,500 yards and while perhaps Vick in his prime could approach those rushing yards, over 800 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs is not very realistic to project for any QB.

 

[jurb26]

I think the NYJ will stick with Smith for most of the year as their QB. Vick will see some playing time but as of now I'm splitting the work 85/15 in favor of Smith. He's young and developing so I don't think NYJ will abandon him unless his play is really costing the team. I'm not sure I see that happening this year because I like some of the additions they've made. Still, I'm not overly optimistic for fantasy potential in NYJ this year.

The additions of note are Decker, Johnson and Amaro. I think NYJ has upgraded all 3 of their skill positions this offseason but by how much? I'm not sold on Decker as a WR1 in the NFL so it's difficult for me to get excited about this addition. He undoubtably provides a better target for Smith this year but will likely struggle to beat top coverage, that he never faced in Den, as the primary WR in NYJ. Johnson is a great addition and I think he will immediately make an impact. The problem is, NYJ already had a decent run game last year off the legs of Ivory and Powell. It's been said that NYJ will ride the hot hand in the running game. I expect that hot hand to be Johnson more often than not. I also expect Ivory to be the GL TD vulture. Lastly we have Amaro. Amaro is a wild card for this year. I think he's an excellent weapon in the passing game and has a skill set similar to Ertz from last years rookie group of TEs. There is a solid opportunity for him to come in and play with only Cumberland ahead of him on the depth chart. I don't see him moving Cumberland out of the fold because he's just not a strong blocker and would be a liability in those situations. For a team that will center their attack on running that ball that can significantly hinder his PT. Still, Amaro is too go to not get on the field in passing situations IMO. I think he will get involved as basically a WR3/4 in the offense this year.

Projections

Smith

235 completions, 391 attempts, 2777 yds, 15 TDs, 15 Ints

68 carries, 340 yds, 3 TDs

Vick

41 completions, 69 attempts, 489 yds, 3 TDs, 2 Ints

12 carries, 96 yds

Johnson

245 carries, 1090 yds, 6 TDs

69 targets, 48 receptions, 340 yds, 2 TDs

Ivory

170 carries, 782 yds, 6 TDs

23 targets, 12 receptions, 72 yds

Decker

101 targets, 63 receptions, 850 yds, 4 TDs

Hill

69 targets, 40 receptions, 580 yds, 3 TDs

Kerley

59 targets, 35 receptions, 437 yds, 2 TDs

Nelson

46 targets, 27 receptions, 324 yds

Amaro

69 targets, 48 receptions, 580 yds, 3 TDs

 

[swirvenirvin]

Here we go...lotta guessing when it comes to QB, but here are my thoughts:

Quarterback:

I don't think anyone here really can even project where they see this going, but maybe a "collective" grouping of stats will help. When coming up with these, I tried to assess what the OC has done in the past and how I "think" it will go with the QB (I see Geno winning out, and I see Vick getting some playing time).

Geno Smith - 255/400 - 63% - 3400 yards passing - 18 TDs/9 Ints, 70 rush attempts, 410 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

Michael Vick - 75/140 - 53% - 1050 yards passing - 7 TDs, 4 ints, 55 rush attempts, 400 yards rushing, 4 rushing TDs

You will see, the combined numbers do not wow, and where I think the Jets will improve, is with protecting the ball.

Running Back:

Chris Johnson: 210 rushes, 900 yards, 5 TDs - 47 receptions, 376 yards, 2 TDs

Chris Ivory : 200 rushes, 800 yards, 6 TDs - 4 receptions 32 yards, 0 TDs

Richardson/Powell: 30 rushes, 70 yards, 0 TDs - 15 receptions, 125 yards, 2 TDs

Wide Receiver:

Eric Decker - 75 - 1175 - 9

David Nelson - 45 - 600 - 2

Stephen Hill - 30 - 550 - 3

Jeremy Kerley - 55 - 700 - 2

Rookies: 25 - 350 - 2

Tight End:

Jeff Cumberland - 33 - 333 - 2

Jace Amaro - 30 - 450 - 3

Misc: Rushing - 100 yards, Receiving 100 yards

Overall, this is how I see it shaking out. While I see the Jets improving through the air and on the ground (would be tough not to), I also don't think there is a standout "guy" besides Decker on this team...a lot of spot start guys in deep leagues, or deeply rostered/unrosterable players in general.

i mean i respect that you posted some numbers but wow.. from 14 in 12to 13 in 2013 to 25 passing td's in 2014??

not happening, it doesnt seem like these stats looked at anything other than you throwing out random numbers