2014 NFL draft: The Holy Grail of Running Back Scouting
James Cobern /
5 days ago March 21, 2014
Running back is one of the hardest positions to scout in college football. System and scheme have a large influence in the success of the position in the college ranks and the NFL. Which only makes more time and film work to find the diamond in the rough player all the while knowing you could just as easily be making the job of throwing darts at a board harder than it really is. However, the world of analytics is here, and after learning of a few simple formulas on a blog post by a user named
Waldo. I’ve found the holy grail of running back scouting.
Using these formulas below, I’m going to show you a world where one number can be the difference between a Pro Bowler and a Jag.
“Mass = weight/height
Explosive Power = (vert+3.5*broad)*(weight/height)/3000
Speed 10 = 100*(1-(10 Split/(0.0114*(weight/height)+1.1785)))
Speed 40 = 100*(1-(40 time/(0.0397*(weight/height)+3.092)))
Speed Avg = (Speed 10 + Speed 40)/2
Agility = 100*(1-(3 Cone/(0.0573*(weight/height)+4.8403)))
Twitch = Shuttle – 2*10 yd split – (1.60 – 10 yd split)”
These are Waldo’s formulas that I have tweaked and applied to all the running backs who attended the NFL Scouting Combine from 2006-2013. With this data collected and calculated, I added the 2014 NFL draft rookie running backs to see where they fall in the data set to give us a better historical idea of what their success could likely be.
But before I show you the results, here are a few definitions of terms to help your understanding.
Explosive Power Score: Uses the vertical jump and broad jump of a player with their density to determine how powerful their lower body is out of their stance. The higher the number, the more explosive the player is.
Speed 10 Score: Determines whether a player’s 10 yard split is positive or negative compared to the mean determined by mass density.
Speed 40 Score: Determines whether a player’s 40 yard dash is positive or negative compared to the mean determined by mass density.
Speed Average: The average of the Speed 10 and Speed 40 score.
Agility Score: Determines whether a player’s 3-Cone is positive or negative compared to the mean determined by mass density.
Twitch Score: Determines how sudden a player is in by subtracting the short shuttle by the 10 yard split times two with an additional modifier to reward players who are fast. The lower the number, the more quick twitch the player should have on tape.
With that said, here are the results.
Starting with the explosive score, six rookies scored an explosive score of .90 or higher.
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