2014 Suicide Pool Strategy Thread (1 Viewer)

[massraider]

Week 1 Matchups and Lines:

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks, 46

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Atlanta Falcons, 51.5

Minnesota Vikings (+4) at St. Louis Rams, 44

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 40.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) at Philadelphia Eagles, 53

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at New York Jets, 40

Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Baltimore Ravens, 43

Buffalo Bills (+7) at Chicago Bears, 47

Washington Redskins (+3) at Houston Texans, 45.5

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 43.5

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins, 47

Carolina Panthers (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 39.5

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 51

Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) at Denver Broncos, 55.5

New York Giants (+5) at Detroit Lions, 47

San Diego Chargers (+3) at Arizona Cardinals, 45

 

[Futz]

Week 1s are tough and this one seems especially tough. I like to save the perceived better teams for later but it's also wise to get through the first few weeks to see how it all is shaking out. I have two entries and I feel Chicago is the lock of the week and I want to use Detroit because MNF @ home against a shaky offense should be about as much of a gimmie as the Lions will see this year.

 

[massraider]

Tempting:

Bears

Jets

Ballsy:

Texans

 

[bigmarc27]

I follow what Vegas says for the most part in the early weeks... they know more than everyone else, so why not trust them. After the first few, i'll start going with what I see with my own eyes (of course thats when I normally lose).

 

[Gottabesweet]

I like Philly here.

 

[massraider]

I follow what Vegas says for the most part in the early weeks... they know more than everyone else, so why not trust them. After the first few, i'll start going with what I see with my own eyes (of course thats when I normally lose).

Yeah, first couple weeks, I want sure things, till surprises start revealing themselves.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Ballsy:

Texans

By ballsy do you mean incredibly foolish?

 

[Spin]

I have Eagles penciled in across my leagues.. but really want to go with Det.....

 

[Blackjacks]

I love Chicago

 

[Soulfly3]

Get the Jets outta the way for the rest of the season, and use them Week 1.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I have Eagles penciled in across my leagues.. but really want to go with Det.....

I'd be in the same exact boat. I'd probably stick with Philly and save Det for a match-up against Minny or something.

 

[Freelove]

I don't think the Steelers are likely to be this comfortable a favorite again all year long, so I wouldn't mind burning them early. And Cleveland never, ever wins in Pittsburgh.

 

[gambla]

yep, took Pitt as this is likely their best home matchup this year. Phili has many easy ones upcoming, but they are the lock this week.

 

[snellman]

Are we going to have a shark pool survivor league this year?

 

[snellman]

Leaning Jets. This will be one of the few games you will be able to pick them with confidence going against a rookie QB

 

[Raider Nation]

 

[gandalas]

hate to do it, but went against my brownies in all my survivor leagues. Tempted to go with the Jets, but the total unknown of Carr scared me away.

Just don't see how the Browns can pull it out, especially up in Pitt.

 

[Nero]

I like Philly here.

Me too. I like Buffalo to cover, so I wouldn't touch Chicago.

 

[Lascelle]

I don't think the Steelers are likely to be this comfortable a favorite again all year long, so I wouldn't mind burning them early. And Cleveland never, ever wins in Pittsburgh.

Last time the Browns won in Pittsburgh = Week 5 of 2003

That was back in the pre-Big Ben days when XFL dynamo Tommy Maddox was still in town.

 

[NajehHejan]

Had Jets until Carr was announced as the starter and learned that the Jets have the worst secondary in the league. He may carve them up.

Philly is the lock but saving them and going Bears.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I like Tampa week 1 at home against the banged up Panthers. Bucs D line is sick, and Cam is ailing.

 

[Tanner9919]

Week 1 Matchups and Lines:

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks, 46

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Atlanta Falcons, 51.5

Minnesota Vikings (+4) at St. Louis Rams, 44

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 40.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) at Philadelphia Eagles, 53

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at New York Jets, 40

Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Baltimore Ravens, 43

Buffalo Bills (+7) at Chicago Bears, 47

Washington Redskins (+3) at Houston Texans, 45.5

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 43.5

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins, 47

Carolina Panthers (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 39.5

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 51

Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) at Denver Broncos, 55.5

New York Giants (+5) at Detroit Lions, 47

San Diego Chargers (+3) at Arizona Cardinals, 45

thanks for doing this, OP!

I like Cincy getting 1.5,

Seattle laying 5.5 and the OVER

as inept as the Giants have looked in preseason, I'm beginning to feel like they're the Jets of last year - everyone's favorite to be the worst team in football - but they surprise everyone and go 8-8..the line is G-men +5 , but the 47 o/u is interesting..Giants have an elite secondary this year, and they're pretty decent at stopping the run,so,what gives? Vegas thinks these teams split 42pts, with Detroit winning by 5 ( 47 o/u)? or do they think Lions blow them out? I can't see a blowout happening, no tagainst the Giants defense..

I think it comes down to a FG either way, take Giants getting pts, and take the over - they're begging you to take the under..

Love SF giving 4.5

Rams -4..a backup QB giving pts? take it and run with it..

 

[zed2283]

PHI, CHI, DET, and PIT are probably my top picks. But I can't decide. I'd say PHI is the biggest lock, but I'd prefer to save them.

 

[gambla]

For betting purposes, rams have to be the biggest sucker bet. I feel like Vegas is begging for Minn backers. Rams should cover.

 

[Obamassiah]

Speaking of suicide pools - is anybody running the Sharkpool suicide contest again? Is there already a thread?

 

[dbc925]

I'm doing two this year. Eagles in one and the Bears in the other.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Seahawks.

 

[Futz]

I was thinking that Philly was a lock a few weeks ago but I've been watching Jax a bit because of having Bortles in my dynasty and the talent level there has improved quite a bit. I don't think it's a slam dunk by any means. Gerhardt, Shoelace, Hurns and the rookie WRS are showing some promise for that offense.

 

[lfh3]

Ballsy:

Texans

By ballsy do you mean incredibly foolish?

http://www.dailywav.com/sites/default/files/wavs/ballsy.wav

Personally, I like CHI, PIT, and NYJ (in addition to PHI).

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

Seahawks.

Why is your avatar saying "masturbate" in sign language?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I like Philly here.

Right, the first week is not the time to get cute & overthink things.

 

[massraider]

Ballsy:

Texans

By ballsy do you mean incredibly foolish?

http://www.dailywav.com/sites/default/files/wavs/ballsy.wav

Personally, I like CHI, PIT, and NYJ (in addition to PHI).

Ha. I feel ya.

However, just for the sake of an argument (and I won't be taking Houston):

Houston defense is formidable.

Cushing and Arian Foster haven't yet decided which season-ending injury to have, so they will both be fully ready to go.

Fitzpatrick is more than capable of throwing for 225 and a TD. Which might be enough. Is he a starting QB Texans fans should be happy with? You'd prefer not, but he can whip it around, and get on a streak. He's done it before. Quite a bit.

This will be RGIII's first game in a conventional offense, and might not be able to count on his running game. I am a believer in RGIII, but growing pains are expected, and he may need to throw it to move the ball in this game.

On the road.

I expect Houston to be in the mix for a top 3 pick at the end of the year, once the wheels come off, but they might be OK to start the season.

 

[Sinrman]

Week 1 Matchups and Lines:

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Atlanta Falcons, 51.5

Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) at Denver Broncos, 55.5

New York Giants (+5) at Detroit Lions, 47

I like the OVER on all three of these

 

[houndirish]

Taking the Steelers. Agree with the sentiment that Philly seems very safe butId rather save them and even though the upset would shock me here, I thought the Jags looked much improved when I watched them in preseason.

The Browns simply aren't allowed to win in Pittsburgh. This is a lock pick no matter what week it occurs. Plus Pittsburgh figures to be shaky any other week.

 

[Late225]

Taking the Steelers. Agree with the sentiment that Philly seems very safe butId rather save them and even though the upset would shock me here, I thought the Jags looked much improved when I watched them in preseason.

The Browns simply aren't allowed to win in Pittsburgh. This is a lock pick no matter what week it occurs. Plus Pittsburgh figures to be shaky any other week.

The Eagles second string offense was 2 for 2 in touchdowns versus the Steeler first string defense. There's no way I'm picking Pittsburgh.

 

[Donnybrook]

Where is the picks thread?

 

[daveR]

Week 1 Matchups and Lines:

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks, 46

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Atlanta Falcons, 51.5

Minnesota Vikings (+4) at St. Louis Rams, 44

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 40.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) at Philadelphia Eagles, 53

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at New York Jets, 40

Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Baltimore Ravens, 43

Buffalo Bills (+7) at Chicago Bears, 47

Washington Redskins (+3) at Houston Texans, 45.5

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 43.5

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins, 47

Carolina Panthers (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 39.5

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 51

Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) at Denver Broncos, 55.5

New York Giants (+5) at Detroit Lions, 47

San Diego Chargers (+3) at Arizona Cardinals, 45

Let's try the O/Us this week. Green over, Red under.

 

[BillyJoeBob]

Speaking of suicide pools - is anybody running the Sharkpool suicide contest again? Is there already a thread?

http://forums.footba...hl=blackeyedjoe

 

[Raider Nation]

I remember back in '85 when the Bears didn't suck.

 

[TenTimes]

I remember back in '85 when the Bears didn't suck.

I now have a #2 on my list of permanent survivor pick'em rules:

1. Home teams only.

2. In conference only.

Almost picked Chicago instead of Philadelphia.

 

[Freelove]

I don't think the Steelers are likely to be this comfortable a favorite again all year long, so I wouldn't mind burning them early. And Cleveland never, ever wins in Pittsburgh.

Glad I got that turd flushed while I still could.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

No Fbg contest this year?

 

[Raider Nation]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=711732&hl=blackeyedjoe

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm in multiple survivor leagues and I'm going to be a heavy investor in the Packers this week.

They are -8 at home against the Jets.

The Jets have already won and the Packers lost. GB isn't starting the season 0-2.

Denver (-13) vs. KC and San Francisco (-7) vs. Chicago are the other big favorites, but the division game could be tricky for the Broncos, and I don't feel comfortable betting against the Bears' potentially potent offense. The Pack makes the most sense this week.

 

[Ace zero1]

yeah. i'm picking green bay too.

 

[daveR]

Week 1 Matchups and Lines:

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks, 46

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Atlanta Falcons, 51.5

Minnesota Vikings (+4) at St. Louis Rams, 44

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 40.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) at Philadelphia Eagles, 53

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at New York Jets, 40

Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Baltimore Ravens, 43

Buffalo Bills (+7) at Chicago Bears, 47

Washington Redskins (+3) at Houston Texans, 45.5

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 43.5

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins, 47

Carolina Panthers (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 39.5

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 51

Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) at Denver Broncos, 55.5

New York Giants (+5) at Detroit Lions, 47

San Diego Chargers (+3) at Arizona Cardinals, 45

Let's try the O/Us this week. Green over, Red under.

Not bad.

 

[TeeDub]

The only problem I have with greenbay is that the jets will be able to run it down their throats. Would not be surprised if this is the upset of the week with the jets playing their best game of the season

 

[Leroy Hoard]

The only problem I have with greenbay is that the jets will be able to run it down their throats. Would not be surprised if this is the upset of the week with the jets playing their best game of the season

Green Bay just needs to get on top and not flounder early like Philly did last week.

 

[massraider]

9/11 8:25 ET At Baltimore -2.5 Pittsburgh 43.5 -$145 +$125

9/14 1:00 ET At Carolina -2.5 Detroit 43.5 -$145 +$125

9/14 1:00 ET Miami -1 At Buffalo 43 -$115 -$105

9/14 1:00 ET At Washington -6 Jacksonville 43.5 -$260 +$220

9/14 1:00 ET At Tennessee -4 Dallas 49 -$210 +$180

9/14 1:00 ET At NY Giants -1 Arizona 44 -$120 +$100

9/14 1:00 ET New England -3.5 At Minnesota 49 -$180 +$160

9/14 1:00 ET New Orleans -6 At Cleveland 47.5 -$280 +$240

9/14 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -5 Atlanta 48 -$245 +$205

9/14 4:05 ET At Tampa Bay -5 St. Louis 37 -$245 +$205

9/14 4:05 ET Seattle -5.5 At San Diego 44.5 -$245 +$205

9/14 4:25 ET Houston -3 At Oakland 39 -$150 +$130

9/14 4:25 ET At Green Bay -8.5 NY Jets 46 -$410 +$340

9/14 4:25 ET At Denver -13.5 Kansas City 51 -$900 +$675

9/14 8:30 ET At San Francisco -7 Chicago 48.5 -$320 +$260

9/15 8:35 ET At Indianapolis -3 Philadelphia 53.5 -$150 +$130

 

[Gawain]

What percentages of people's leagues did the Bills knock out?