2014 Team/Player Spotlight -- Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: Detroit Lions

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Recommended Players to Discuss (Player Page links provided):

QB Matthew Stafford

WR Calvin Johnson

WR Golden Tate

RB Reggie Bush

RB Joique Bell

TE Eric Ebron

TE Brandon Pettigrew

Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
• FBG Projections

 

[Jason Wood]

So Joe Lombardi takes over as OC, which means that the Lions should still throw the ball A LOT. I think that makes Matthew Stafford a safer play at his current ADP than if a more conventional OC from a more balanced program took over. The question is whether the additions of Golden Tate and Eric Ebron provide Stafford with enough balance in the passing tree to help him cure his turnovers and become more efficient. I'm not 100% certain Stafford is an elite talent, but he's a good enough talent that when combined with his elite ATTEMPTS, he produces.

Bush and Bell are going to be a fascinating fantasy tandem this preseason.

Bush is currently being drafted RB14, 28th overall in PPR leagues while Bell is going 51st overall and 22nd at his position. We saw last year that either guy is a must start when the other is banged up. But what about when they're both on the field? I think the conundrum I have with Bush is that you are relying on him to be a high end RB2, which isn't a foregone conclusion with Bell in the mix. Bell, on the other hand, can be had for RB3 prices and I would be comfortable playing Bell (or Bush) as my flex in PPR most weeks, even if they time share.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Maybe the best example of a teams fantasy value over real life value, with Stafford being #1 on the list.

 

[jurb26]

Philly thread getting a ton more action than the Det one. Seems strange. Det should be one of the most productive fantasy teams in the NFL.

 

[maf005]

The upgraded receiving targets should make Stafford slightly more efficient than year's past but I'm not straying too far from the last 3 year's average.

Stafford: 650 passes, 390 completions (60%), 35 TDs, 17 ints, 4550 yards

Calvin: 90 catches, 1530 yards, 14 TDs

Tate: 80 catches, 960 yards, 6 TDs

Bell: 50 catches, 550 yards, 4 TDs

Bush: 60 catches, 550 yards, 4 TDs

Ebron: 40 catches, 440 yards, 4 TDs

Pettigrew: 35 catches, 315 yards, 3 TDs

Remaining WRs, TEs, and RBs: 35 catches, 205 yards, 0 TDs

I may be too high on Bush/Bell, idk.

 

[koreansteve]

TheDirtyWord and others will come and provide amazing analysis, but here's my thinking:

Joe Lombardi takes over as OC. He was the Saints QB coach for the past 5 years, during which time Brees averaged 4,965 yds/season and 630 attempts/season. Lombardi is bringing the Saints playbook to Detroit and it sounds like he wants to install a similar style of offense. All of that makes me agree with Jason, in thinking that Detroit will continue to throw the ball a lot this season.

Stafford:

Obviously he's no Drew Brees, but hopefully Lombardi can help mold him into a more consistent player. Over the last 4 games of last season Stafford did horribly, averaging a 55% completion rate, 206 yds/game, 6.2 yds/attempt, 0.5 TDs, and 1.25 INTs each game. I'm not convinced that Stafford is elite. He hasn't had a completion percentage over 60% since 2011 and his INTs keep increasing every year. However, he seems to always be in the top 10 because of the volume of passes he throws. His supporting cast has increased in talent with Golden Tate and Eric Ebron coming to town. His new OC helped Drew Brees become one of the most successful QBs over the past 5 years and plans on installing an offense with (one would assume) plenty of passing.

Stafford has averaged 675 pass attempts per year over the past 3 years. I'll project around the same number of attempts as last year with perhaps a very slight bump...to around 640 attempts. I think that Lombardi and the new receivers help Stafford to increase his accuracy and push his yds/attempt up to around 7.4.

640 attempts x 7.4 yds/attempt = 4736 yards. 31 TDs, 18 INTs.

Reggie Bush and Joique Bell:

This is a very interesting situation for fantasy owners. Bush is RB15 or so. Bell is RB28 or so. Both played through injuries last year and Bush seemed to be constantly banged up at least a little bit. It's clear that when one is out with injury, the other usually puts up big fantasy points. Bush seemed to wear down late in the season + Bell's new 3-year, $9.3M contract + Lombardi saying that he wants his RBs to have a "split role"...it makes me think that Reggie Bush will be lucky to see 200+ carries this year. In 2013, Bush had 223 carries (4.5 yds/carry) while Bell had 166 carries (3.9 yds/carry).

It's impossible to really tell, but I think something like 195 carries for Bush and 180 carries for Bell is a real possibility. As a team, with Reggie Bush having turned 29 years old this offseason, I don't think they want to put 200+ carries on his shoulders again. He had nagging injuries and would have been pretty worn down had the Lions made the playoffs. Bell's carries also increased at the end of the season.

I am probably more bullish on Bell than most. RBush at RB15 makes sense. JBell at RB28 represents incredible value if he does get 180 carries.

**Bell is struggling with a knee injury right now. Certainly something to keep an eye on.

Calvin Johnsonand the WRs:

Calvin Johnson is just incredible. His receptions wen down in 2013, but his TDs and yds/reception went way up to give him another Pro Bowl season. I see more of the same. 90 catches, 1500 yds, 10+ TDs. I career year for most, or what is becoming an average year for Calvin.

Golden Tate should see single coverage most of the time and now's he's the #2 WR in a very pass heavy offense. 60 receptions, 828 yds, 5-6 TDs seems like a very reasonable number for him. FFC has him at WR30 righit now. It has been a while since there has been a competent #2 WR in Detroit, so I think this could be a little tricky to project. He could easily catch 50 balls and it wouldn't surprise me. But if Stafford throws the ball 660+ times, then I think 70 receptions could be within his reach.

Broyles...I wish that could could be 100% healthy.

Eric Ebron and Brandon Pettigrew:

I think the addition of Ebron makes this TE corps a fantasy wasteland at least in 2014. I would guess that Pettigrew slides to 25-30 catches while Ebron has a nice rookie season with 40-45 receptions. With 2 RBs, 1 HOF WR, 1 good WR, and now 2 TEs, it's difficult for me to see how Ebron could break into the top 12 in terms of TE rankings without an unexpected injury to one of the Lion's playmakers.

Stafford: 390 completions, 640 attempts, 7.4 yds/attempt, 4736 yds, 31 TDs, 18 INTs. 30 rushes, 75 yds, 1 TD

RBush: 195 rushes, 4.4 yds/carry, 858 yds, 5 TDs. 50 receptions, 425 yds, 2 TDs

JBell: 180 rushes, 4.0 yds/carry, 720 yds, 7 TDs. 42 receptions, 352 yds, 2 TDs

CJohnson: 90 receptions, 1476 yds, 11 TDs

Tate: 60 receptions, 828 yds, 6 TDs

Ebron: 42 receptions, 475 yds, 4 TDs

Pettigrew: 25 receptions, 258 yds, 1 TD

 

[Biabreakable]

Philly thread getting a ton more action than the Det one. Seems strange. Det should be one of the most productive fantasy teams in the NFL.

I am almost done. What has me a bit stumped is who will the WR3 be? Who is Kris Durham and why was he second on the team in targets in 2013? What will his role be now that Tate is there?

This is pretty much the last detail for me to finish this puzzle.

eta- here is a recent thread discussing Durham http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=707235&hl=%2Bkris+%2Bdurham

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Take 46.

Another incarnation of the Detroit Lions has come and gone and a new regime is in place to finally make right what has gone wrong in Detroit for far too long. Even though Jim Schwartz took over an 0-16 team, one playoff appearance in 5 seasons when put together with a 29-51 overall record and a reputation solidified for undisciplined play and preparation was enough for the Lions to make another change. This time, mild-mannered, Jim Caldwell was installed as HC to the collective yawn of the Lions faithful. It certainly represents a contrast from the excitable Schwartz, but obviously whether this has the intended effect of a better prepared ore disciplined team will remain to be seen.

In some ways, the Lions are one of the last teams that is truly still hamstrung by the old CBA. Matt Stafford while on his second contract had to essentially have his contract extended earlier than would have been ideal because he was working off a salary cap number that was way too high. Given that in 5 seasons, Stafford has essentially had one stellar season…the fact that the Lions are married to him for 4 more years means they have a lot of eggs in the basket of a player with a 59.5% career completion rate and coming off a season where he sported his lowest completion rate since his rookie year. While his yardage totals are impressive, having thrown 2024 passes over the last 3 years is a surefire way to boost them. His YPA over that time of 7.2 is decidedly average. If you combine that with Ndamukong Suh whose rookie deal was a 5 year $68M contract in which he’s about to enter the last year of, you can see that Detroit has had to tiptoe around. Despite the fact that Suh has been one of the best DT’s in the NFL since he stepped foot in DET, in some ways, he still couldn’t live up to the contract he was given in the new economic reality of the NFL. As such, it will be interesting to see what his next contract yields since I doubt Suh will be in much of a mood to take any pay cuts. Lastly, you have Calvin Johnson’s contract that still remains the standard bearer of NFL WR contracts at 8 years $132M. Again, there is no way you don’t pay Calvin Johnson. He’s the best WR game. But when you start to put this all together, it hasn’t meant any success for this franchise and yet you can see the short and long term financial commitments the Lions have to players who have been instrumental to leading the Lions to a sub .400 winning percentage these past 5 years. It’s a puzzling mix.

For a franchise that has struggled to run the ball effectively or with consistency, they chose an OC in Joe Lombardi who despite serving an apprenticeship under Sean Payton, has never been an OC before and comes from an offense that may have only been eclipsed by DET in terms of how well they’ve leveraged the run game. While New Orleans may have used their RB’s in innovative ways (think Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles), they were generally at the bottom of the rush rankings than the top. Their last six season have seen them rank 6th twice, 25th twice and 28th twice (hmmm…) in rushing offense. The years they ranked 6th they certainly showcased the depth they had at the position those years. But in 2011, they unleashed Darren Sproles to the tune of 6.9 YPC average on 87 carries. I don’t want to take anything away from Sproles or the Saints that year, but that feels like an anomaly. Bottomline: while the hiring of Lombardi might allow for previous DET offensive standard bearers to maintain their FF standing, I’m questioning whether or not it makes the Lions better. Not just that, but how much autonomy is Lombardi really going to be given on gameday?

Matt Stafford – Stafford’s value has been largely the product of an offense that 1) provides him more opportunity to throw the ball than any other QB in the league and 2) features the unquestioned best WR on the planet. To be fair, the Lions have failed miserably at providing a consistent target opposite Megatron to take advantage of the attention he receives. From Titus Young to Nate Burleson, the best the Lions have done has put journeymen type talent in that #2 WR spot. At worst, they put a crazy person. So if you are betting on Stafford this season, you are very much counting on him returning to his 2011 form. Would you take his 2013 form? His 2013 wouldn’t kill you like his 2012 form did when he threw a paltry 20 TD’s against 17 INT’s. But getting QB4 standing on FFC behind the BIG 3? That’s very lofty status for a slingshot type of QB with a new coaching staff in a year where the QB position is as deep as it’s ever been. What that depth allows you to do is to not have to take such a risk at the QB position. Heck, Ben Roethlisberger who went for 4,261 yards with a 28/14 TD-to-INT ratio is going QB19! And while Stafford does not fit the profile of risk that we’re used to defining it as, what’s the difference between Stafford or Matt Ryan? Or Philip Rivers? I don’t think Stafford will fall on his face, but he’s a suckers bet and the delta in value you’ll get with him by drafting him where he is at now versus waiting is not there.

Reggie Bush/Joique Bell – 3 years ago, the thought was that Reggie Bush had busted out. Seemingly always battling injuries and having his role minimized, it looked like an impossibility that Bush would ever justify his #2 overall selection in 2007. While he may still never to that, a 3 year stretch where he’s averaged only 1 missed game while putting up 1391 YFS and 7 TD’s has helped to resurrect his FF standing. The big question that has to be answered with the Bush/Bell tandem is how will the workload be split.? Also, is Bell viable if he’s not handcuffed to Bush?

23.3% of Bell’s touches came in games Bush missed as did 21.7% of his YFS. It wasn’t that Bell wasn’t productive when Bush did play, but his per game numbers dropped precipitously. When Bush played, Bell posted 12 touch and 67 YFS per game averages. Of his 8 TD’s, 2 came in games Bush missed. It’s not that I don’t like Joique Bell, I do. But does he present enough value to the non-Bush owner? When Bush played, a large part of Bell’s value was in the passing game. We now are haring murmurs that Bush is back in the role he was in during his Saints days? Is that to be trusted? As much as I like Bell, Bush is still the better RB. He’s the better player. Let’s not forget that Bell only clocked a 3.9 YPC average in 2013. Either way, I almost feel that you have to draft both guys here or none of them. At worst, you can draft Bell if he falls too much, but there seems to be the potential here for 1) a feeling out process with a new OC and 2) nick nack injuries that reverse the roles of the two backs in a given week. Say Reggie is banged up…then he’s the one that sees but 7-9 touches. With that said, Bush seems to be the type of player that can find his groove in a particular game and be lights out. He’s capable of winning your game in a given week while Bell is a guy that so long as Bush is there, will provide good RB2-to-Flex production. Bush is the more talented player, but perhaps Bell is the better fit.

One of the areas where Bush/Bell contributed the most, was in the passing game. Combined, they totaled 107/1053/3. With the acquisition of Golden Tate and the drafting of Eric Ebron, I can see these totals falling a bit as DET’s reliance on the Bush/Bell combo in the passing game fades and the Lions diversify.



Megatron – There’s not really a whole lot to say here. Up until Week 14, Calvin was on a 1600/16 type pace. But injuries to his finger and knee bubbled up to the surface and made him merely mortal as he limped home during the seasons final 4 weeks with an 18/294/1 line. But if he’s healthy and stays healthy, he’s as good a fantasy producer as there is. I could make an argument for him as the #1 overall FF pick. He’s the closest to a ‘sure thing’ FF has to offer.

Golden Tate – Tate is likely the best WR2 the Lions have had during the Megatron era. He’s not good enough to take coverage away from Megatron. But he might be good enough to take advantage of the lack of attention. In Seattle’s run based offense, Tate was targeted on 23% of the pass attempts. For an offense that only threw the ball 420 times, even #1 WR’s aren’t really #1 WR’s (unless say they are gobbling up 30% of the targets). He was a guy who could make bad teams pay, but against the stalwarts of the NFL, he was not someone who had much of an impact; the 3 games in which he eclipsed 100 YFS were against JAX, ATL, STL. He totaled but 61 YFS in the playoffs. So for a WR1 on a run-based team…he was a solid WR3.

With that said, say Stafford throws the ball 625 times in 2014. In order to garner the same amount of targets in he had in 2013, Tate would only have to be targeted 15.7% of the time. So there is opportunity here. But I don’t believe that opportunity will allow him to replicate his 14.6 YPR the last two seasons when as SEA’s best WR, he was counted on as the primary passing game weapon. In DET, Tate seems to be a guy who should settle in that 11-12 YPC area, where he can use his experience and strength to be a more consistent intermediate type of WR. So let’s say Tate increases his targets to 120…a big if. With his catch percentage being in the 65% range with a QB with a 63% completion rate, if his catch percentage dips down to 60%, that’s 72 receptions and if his YPR comes down to 12, he’s about at the same yardage (868). So I think Tate has the look of a guy who’ll be perceived as more valuable in terms of his role within the scope and philosophy of his new team, but will struggle to see much of an uptick production wise.

Eric Ebron – There have been 5 TE’s drafted in the 1st round since 2008; Dustin Keller, Brandon Pettigrew, Jermaine Gresham, Tyler Eifert and Eric Ebron. Interestingly, of the 5, only 3 teams have drafted them (the Lions and the Bengals come in at 2 each). But if we simply look at the recent past, none of those TE’s were close to being a FF contributor. Granted, none was drafted as high as Ebron, but TE feels like a position that you grow into more so than have an immediate impact. And despite the Vernon Davis comparisons and the fact that with Pettigrew, the Lions have an in-line TE that will most likely handle the bulk of the blocking assignments while Ebron gets a chance to split out wide and appeal the Goodell that he’s actually a WR, I can’t see Ebron being a great investment. I’ll admit though, I haven’t watched much of Ebron in college. So perhaps I haven’t seen something within his abilities that makes me go ‘Wow!’ like it has some others. Do I expect Ebron to contribute to the Lions offense in a tangible manner? I do. Fact is, you draft a guy that high, he’s going to need to be a part of the plan. But history seems to indicate that it won’t be until Year 2 or even 3 when we’ll see if the talent that Ebron appears to have in spades will rise to the surface and he is in that conversation of best FF TE in the land.

Brandon Pettigrew – Pettigrew never developed into the TE that many thought he could be when he was a 1st round pick in 2009. A player who got slower as years went on and also struggled to catch the ball and keep hold of the ball when he did catch it, the drafting of Ebron really limits how much of factor he’ll be in the Lions offense moving forward. Still an effective blocker, as the #2 TE, he’s probably in a role that’s more suited for his talents. If Lombardi is looking to run an offense like New Orleans, he now has two TE’s who should be on the field quite a bit. But its likely Pettigrew’s snaps will come down significantly from the 925 he logged in 2013. It’s also likely Pettigrew’s days as a fantasy asset are finished, so long as he stays in DET.

Ryan Broyles/Kris Durham – I wouldn’t count out Broyles as having some impact in this new offense. While he’s not going to be fantasy worthy, his previous injury has allowed him to take part in most off-season workouts. Obviously staying healthy has been a huge issue for him and the Achilles Tendon is a nasty one that can rob a player of his explosion. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lions keep him and have him assume some level of slot WR role. Durham is a tall target with an awful catch percentage. The Lions were forced to rely on Durham is a significant piece of their passing game last season, and to that end, it’s a decent bet that having Durham play key snaps hurt Stafford’s productivity and efficiency. Either way, given the assets brought on board, Broyles and Durham seem to be roles that are more suited for their talents.

Predictions:

Stafford: 378 Completions 624 Pass Attempts 4443 Passing Yards 30 TD’s 17 INT’s; 29 Rushes 101 Rushing Yards, 1TD.
Bush: 205 Rushes 949 Rushing Yards 4 TD’s; 46 Receptions 403 Receiving Yards 4 TD’s.
Bell: 153 Rushes 653 Rushes 5 TD’s; 42 Receptions 291 Receiving Yards, 1 TD
Leshoure: 52 Rushes, 202 Rushing Yards 3 TD’s; 4 Receptions 19 Receiving Yards
Megatron: 95 Receptions 1723 Receiving Yards, 14 TD’s
Tate: 74 Receptions 895 Receiving Yards 4 TD’s.
Ebron: 38 Receptions 435 Receiving Yards 3 TD’s.
Pettigrew: 17 Receptions 167 Receiving Yards 0 TD’s.
Broyles: 16 Receptions 152 Receiving Yards 1 TD
Durham: 15 Receptions 176 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.

 

[jurb26]

Interesting that Stafford has been a victim of the most dropped passes in the NFL for 2 years in a row, 33 in 2012 and a whopping 44 in 2013.

 

[Jason Wood]

Nice work guys

 

[PhantomJB]

Some great analysis from Steve and Dirty Word in particular. Couple of thoughts.

When healthy, the Lions are pretty stacked now at the skill positions with the additions of WR Tate, TE Ebron, return to health of WR Ryan Broyles (potentially) and RB Leshoure, as well the continued development of RB Theo Riddick. While Tate is expected to play a prominent role as WR2, these others could be featured much more than as backups.

Leshoure, while nowhere near elite, is a capable power RB and did have around 200/800/9 in 2012. I don't think 80-100 carries this year for 300-400 yds and a handful of TD's is out of the question.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000356627/article/mikel-leshoure-ill-be-more-involved-in-ground-attack

Riddick is essentially a Reggie Bush lite. Nice hands. Aassuming he produces he could be relied on more so as not to wear out injury-prone Bush.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000356739/article/reggie-bush-lions-to-use-theo-riddick-more-in-2014

I think Leshoure will cap the rushing upside of both Bell and Bush and the Lions will rely less on Bell this year than last in the event Bush is injured.

The Lions semi-reached for Ebron in the first round, passing over an elite LT (T. Lewan) and several top tier defensive players. To me this sends a strong signal. I think he will get closer to 50 recpts for the year. Even though Jimmy Graham only got 30+ recpts his first year, IMO it took awhile for the Saints to figure out the role but Lombardi was instrumental in helping do that. Both Ebron and the flex TE role are now much more refined/defined to make a bigger first-year impact than what Graham did.

Broyles set the FBS career record for recpts at Oklahoma. Great hands and great routes. If healthy I can see him with 40-50 recpts on the year.

My comments on the projections are less on the overall numbers and more on distribution. It seems most Lions' projections are concentrated on Calvin/Tate/Bush and Bell. IMO more Ebron and healthy Broyles will cap Megatron at 85-90 recpts and Tate at 60+. More Leshoure puts Bush in the 700-800 yds rushing range. If Bush gets hurt, I don't believe Bell will have the upside he had last year.

Also, if everyone is healthy and Stafford returns to 2011 form, few offenses have the talent and philosophy to potentially put up pinball numbers like the Lions so the risk/reward factor is higher than most. There is a very real scenario where Stafford and the team's projections could be exceeded.

 

[Biabreakable]

Detroit Lions 2014

New Coaches Jim Caldwell Joe Lombardi

2013 Lions 1102(-23sk) 634pa 6.9ay/a 445ra (QB37) 4.0ypc
2012 Lions 1160(-29sk) 740pa 6.3ay/a 391ra (QB35) 4.1ypc
2011 Lions 1058(-36sk) 666pa 7.7ay/a 356ra (QB23) 4.3ypc

3yr avg 1107(-29sk) 680pa 6.9 ay/a 397ra (QB31) 4.1ypc

2013 Saints 1079(-37sk) 651pa 8.3ay/a 391ra (QB35) 3.8
2012 Saints 1067(-26sk) 671pa 7.7ay/a 370ra (QB15) 4.3
2011 Saints 1117(-24sk) 662pa 8.8ay/a 431ra (QB21) 4.9

3yr avg 1088(-29sk) 661pa 8.3ay/a 397ra (QB27) 4.3

Combining both 3yr avg 1098(-29sk) 671pa 397ra (QB29)

1069 62.9% pass 37.1% run 672pa 397ra (QB29) is the mid range of what I am expecting for 2014


Snap counts/Targets

Lions 2013

WR Durham (wtf?) 936os 82.6% 86tg 38rec 12.9ypc 2TD
TE Pettigrew 888os 78.4% 64tg 41rec 10.1ypc 2TD
WR Mega 877os 77.4% 156tg 84rec 17.8ypc 12TD
RB Bush 610 53.8% 80tg 54rec 9.4ypc 3TD
RB Bell 547 48.3% 68tg 53rec 10.3ypc
WR Burelson 496 43.8% 53tg 39rec 11.8ypc 1TD
TE Fauria 303 26.7% 30tg 18rec 11.5ypc 7TD
WR Ogletree 25tg 13rec 15.3ypc 1TD
WR Broyles 197 16.5% 14tg 8rec 10.6ypc
WR Ross 178 15.7% 10tg 5rec 11.8ypc 1TD
WR Edwards 145 12.8% 11tg 5rec 9.2ypc
TE Scheffler 86 7.6% 12yg 7rec 11.7ypc
RB Riddick 43 3.8% 8tg 4rec 6.5ypc
TE Dickerson 43 3.9 5tg 2rec 17ypc

2012

WR Mega 1152os 96% 205tg 122rec 16.1ypc 5TD
TE Pettigrew 770 64.2% 100tg 59rec 9.6ypc 3TD
WR Young 604 50.3% 56tg 33rec 14.1ypc 4TD
RB Leshoure 530 44.2% 48tg 34rec 6.3ypc
TE Scheffler 523 43.6% 84tg 42rec 12ypc 1TD
TE Heller 410 34.2% 23tg 17rec 8.8ypc 1TD
RB Bell 381 31.8% 68tg 52rec 9.3ypc
WR Burelson 356 29.7% 43tg 27rec 8.9ypc 2TD
WR Broyles 278 23.2% 33tg 22rec 14.1ypc 2TD
WR Thomas 223 18.6% 13tg 5rec 5.6ypc 1TD
WR Durham 218 18.2% 21tg 8rec 15.6ypc 1TD
RB Smith 191 15.9% 16tg 10rec 7.9ypc 1TD
WR Robiskie 100 8.3% 6tg 4rec 11ypc 1TD

2011

WR Mega 158tg 96rec 17.5ypc 16TD
TE Pettigrew 126tg 83rec 9.4ypc 5TD
WR Burelson 110tg 73rec 10.4ypc 3TD
WR Young 84tg 48rec 12.6ypc 6TD
TE Scheffler 42tg 26rec 13.2ypc 6TD
RB Best 41tg 27rec 10.6ypc 1TD
RB Morris 35tg 26rec 8.8ypc 1TD
RB Smith 28tg 22rec 8.1ypc 3TD
TE Heller 13tg 6rec 7ypc

Saints 2013

TE Graham 755 67.1% 144tg 86rec 14.1ypc 16TD
WR Colston 750 66.6% 110 75rec 12.6ypc 5TD
WR Stills 689 61.2% 51tg 32rec 20ypc 5TD
RB Thomas 564 50.1% 147ra 3.7ypc 2TD 84tg 77rec 6.7ypc 3TD
TE Watson 494 43.9% 30tg 19rec 11.9ypc 2TD
WR Moore 441 39.2% 54tg 37rec 12.4ypc 2TD
FB Collins 441 39.2% 18tg 14rec 3.9ypc
WR Meachem 389 34.5% 30tg 16rec 20.3ypc 2TD
RB Sproles 357 31.7% 53ra 4.2ypc 2TD 89tg 71rec 8.5ypc 2TD
WR Toon 196 17.4% 12tg 4rec 17ypc
TE Hill 176 15.6% 10tg 6rec 7.3ypc 1TD
RB Ingram 168 14.9% 78ra 4.9ypc 1TD 11tg 7rec 9.7ypc
RB Robinson 73 6.5% 54ra 4.1ypc 1TD
RB Cadet 11 1.0% 2tg 2rec 2.5ypc 1TD

Saints 2012

WR Colston 832 75% 132tg 83rec 13.9ypc 10TD
WR Henderson 702 63.4% 47tg 22rec 14.4ypc 1TD
WR Graham 695 62.7% 135tg 85rec 11.6ypc 9TD
WR Moore 608 54.9% 105tg 65rec 16ypc 6TD
RB Sproles 444 40.1% 104tg 75rec 8.9ypc 7TD
RB Thomas 385 34.7% 53tg 39rec 9.1ypc 1TD
WR Morgan 382 34.5% 21tg 10rec 37.9ypc 3TD
TE Thomas 382 34.5% 17tg 11rec 7.8ypc 4TD
Fb Collins 324 29.2% 16tg 14rec 5ypc 2TD
RB Ingram 266 24% 10tg 6rec 4.8ypc
TE D Graham 104 9.4%
RB Ivory 67 6% 3tg 2rec 7.5ypc
WR Roby 60 5.4% 2tg 1rec

2011 Saints

TE Graham 149tg 13.2ypc 11TD
WR 107tg 14.3ypc 8TD
RB Sproles 111tg 8.3ypc 7TD
WR Moore 73tg 52rec 12.1ypc 8TD
WR Meachem 61tg 40rec 15.5ypc 6TD
RB Thomas 59tg 50rec 8.5ypc 1TD
WR Henderson 50 32rec 15.7ypc 2TD
FB Collins 14tg 11rec 4.5ypc 2TD
RB Ingram 13tg 11rec 4.2ypc
TE Thomas 9tg 5rec 3.2ypc
TE Gilmore 6tg 3rec 6.7ypc 1YD



In 2013 the Lions improved their Oline in with Reiff taking over at LT and Warford starting a guard.

Also added Reggie Bush and played more of Joque Bell building on 2012.

The double screens and other plays put a lot of pressure on the defense to defend, when they must focus so much attention to Calvin Johnson as the 1st priority. The other WR were injured, inconsistent or ineffective for the most part, but that slack was picked up by the RBs.

Added Golden Tate in FA and Eric Ebron in the draft.

The Lions have been running an offense similar to what they do in New Orleans for some time now. Putting up video game numbers in pass attempts and total plays. It makes sense that they brought in Lombardi and Ebron to continue that offensive philosophy. Tate should hopefully give some consistency for the Lions at WR2 they have not really had since 2011.

It is possible that they target the Rb even more than they did last season, but those targets were already 148 between Bell and Bush in 2013. Hard for me to see those targets be much more, with Tate and Ebron also commanding a lot of targets.

The Saints done much the same thing with multiple RB. In this case I think Bell is in Pierre Thomas's role while Bush is Darrin Sproles. 166 targets to the 2 main RB in NO from 2011-2013. Bush and Bell combined for 148 in 2013.

I expect an increase in targets to the TE position, most of those targets going to Ebron based on what they did with Graham in New Orleans and how often Stafford has targeted TE in the past. Even though that was only Pettigrew and Scheffler those 2 TE combined for 210 targets in 2012. This is where I think the offense is heading again with Ebron getting the lions share of the targets.

Running game

380-397-420ra (QB29) 0-10WRra(But most of these likely Bush)
340-368-390 for the RB

Bush 134-169-204ra 4.3ypc 576-727-877yds 70-100tg 67.5% 47-68rec 8.5ypc 400-578yds 2-4TD

Bell 134-169-204ra 4.3ypc 576-727-877yds 50-80tg 77% 39-62rec 9.8ypc 377-608yds 0-1TD

Riddick/Other 12-42-72ra 4.3ypc 52-181-310yds

Riddick was barely involved last season. It is possible a 3rd Rb could have a small role (10%) in the running game but I
more expect it to be a pretty even split between the two B's unless one of them gets hurt. In that event the other would
likely see a boost in snaps over a 3rd RB I think.

Recently there has been some positive news from camp about Riddick-

"This is getting repetitive, but Theo Riddick continues to be impressive. He seems a little faster than last season and
might have improved more than anyone else on the roster from last season. He is putting himself in position to have a real role in this offense this season after being primarily a backup in 2013."

http://espn.go.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/8589/observations-from-day-2-of-lions-minicamp?ex_cid=espnapi_public

Detroit had 28 fumbles in 2013. 12 by Stafford, 5 by Bush, 4 by Bell. That is way too much. If they can reduce these fumbles by even 50% that could lead to an extra 20-40 plays for the offense. Also note that sacks increased in 2013 to 37 after averaging 25 the previous 2 seasons. If that falls back to 25 that could also lead to 20-40 more offensive plays. It is scary to think about a team that ran 1079 plays last season adding more, but because of the turnovers and sacks being so high last season relative to the norm of the past 3 seasons, I do think that is possible. The Lions did have over 1100 plays in 2011. They could again if some of these mistakes get cleaned up.

The Saints have used a 3rd and sometimes a 4th RB in rotation with Thomas(Bell) and Sproles (Bush) for pass protection and inside running. So there is a possibility a 3rd RB may have a similar role and perhaps a larger one than I am expecting for 2014.


Passing game

Tight ends-

Over the last 3 seasons Pettigrew has averaged 97 targets/season. His targets were reduced last season in part because of the addition of Reggie Bush but mostly because Pettigrew is not very good as a reciever. So they could not justify force feeding him so many targets with better options around. He is a good blocker however.

Brandon Pettigrew has had 290 targets 183 receptions over the last 3 seasons. His role as a reciever was greatly reduced in 2013 where he only had 64 targets. He did miss 2 games so that would pro rate to 73 targets. A significant reduction from the 100 and 126 the 2 seasons prior. After averaging less than 10 yards/reception on 142 catches the previous 2 seasons. I also think he was asked to block a bit more as the Lions were playing Reiff at LT for the 1st time who was replacing Jeff Backus. So if they hadn't drafted Ebron perhaps his targets would have gone up a bit. But I think Fauria may have earned more of a role in the passing game instead.

In 2012 Pettigrew and Scheffler combined for 219 targets. So it is not very long ago that Stafford and the Lions have heavily featured 2 TE in their passing offense.

Fauria may be in the mix at times as well especially around the goal line as we saw from his 7TD last season. I more
expect Ebron to be used in this role. But there may be times when both he and Ebron are on the field or even all 3TE.

I see Ebron stepping into this former role as the TE1 target and also the same role that Graham has with the Saints as stated by the coaches about thier intent to use Ebron in such a role. Graham has averaged 143 targets over the last 3 seasons. Furthermore the Lions like to run 2TE sets and the top 2TE have averaged 152 targets over the last 3 seasons, despite the low mark last season of 108 for the top 3TE combined. For both teams the top TE has had 100 or more targets 5 out 6 times in the last 3 seasons.

The high pick of Ebron may mean that targets to Ebron/Pettigrew/Fauria could be in the 200 range. With Ebron getting the Lions share. Yes yes I know he is a rookie. I think he can get 100 targets if all goes well. the last rookie TE to be drafted this high since Kellen Winslow2. I still remember Shockey going off as a rookie, so I expect at some time that might happen again, I cannot think of a better situation to make such an outcome possible, although of course unlikely. I do think Ebron will get targets similar to Graham in 2015. Many of my thoughts on the offense may lean more towards 2015 and beyond than this season.


Wide recievers

Calvin Johnson has averaged 173 targets 100 receptions 11TD per season over the last 3 seasons.

Golden Tate has averaged 75 targets 45 receptions 60% catch rate 5TD per season over the last 3 seasons. He could/should see an uptick in targets in this pass to set up the pass all the time offense. I see Tate taking the role in the offense as the field streacher opposite Calvin. Upside of 100 targets seems possible. But considering the many instances of the WR2 only getting 50 some targets (Stills 51 2013 Moore 54 2013 Burelson 53 2013 Young 56 2012 Burelson 43 2012 Broyles 33 2012 Henderson 47 2012 there is possible downside as well.


Here are the WR seasons on the Lions/Saints over the last 3 years who were not Johnson or Colston.

2012 WR Burelson 356 29.7% 43tg 27rec 8.9ypc 2TD played 6 games pro rated 115tg 72rec

2011 WR Burelson 110tg 73rec 10.4ypc 3TD
2012 WR Moore 608 54.9% 105tg 65rec 16ypc 6TD missed 1 game

2013 WR Burelson 496 43.8% 53tg 39rec 11.8ypc 1TD played 9 games pro rated 94tg 69rec

2013 WR Durham 936os 82.6% 86tg 38rec 12.9ypc 2TD
2011 WR Young 84tg 48rec 12.6ypc 6TD

2012 WR Young 604 50.3% 56tg 33rec 14.1ypc 4TD only played 10 games pro rated he would have had 89.6tg 53rec

2011 WR Moore 73tg 52rec 12.1ypc 8TD missed 2 games pro rated 83tg 59rec

8 times out of 6 combined seasons the 2nd WR (not Graham/Colston or Johnson/Pettigrew) would have had from 83-115tg if healthy all 16 games.

In 2011 the Lions did give Johnson 158tg Burelson 126tg Young 84tg Pettigrew 126 Scheffler 42. This was before they had Bell or Bush however and their RB were Javid Best, Maurice Morris, Kevin Smith. So I think that makes it unlikely a 3rd WR gets more than 50 targets as long as Bush/Bell Ebron/Pettigrew/Fauria are healthy most of the season.


Durham had 86 targets in this offense last season. He also had the most offensive snaps of any skill player in 2013.

Titus Young had 84 targets in 2011 as the 3rd WR behind Johnson and Burelson.

The distribution of targets that season broke down like this

Johnson 158
Pettigrew 126
Burelson 110
Young 84
Scheffler 42
Best 41
Morris 35
Smith 28

So it has happened before and perhaps Durham could get over 50 targets. I just doubt it very much because Bush/Bell as going to get more looks in the passing game than Best/Morris/Smith could manage the last time a 3rd WR had significant targets.

So the 3rd WR may be looking at a season like the following at best-

2013 WR Moore 441 39.2% 54tg 37rec 12.4ypc 2TD only played 13 games pro rated 66tg 46rec
2011 WR Meachem 61tg 40rec 15.5ypc 6TD played all games
2013 WR Stills 689 61.2% 51tg 32rec 20ypc 5TD rookie
2011 WR Henderson 50tg 32rec 15.7ypc 2TD played all games
2012 WR Henderson 702 63.4% 47tg 22rec 14.4ypc 1TD 15 games

or worse.

I do think Durham's size is intriuging. But his efficiency has been so poor. I cannot see the Lions giving him much more than 50 targets with all of the other options they have. Perhaps TJ Jones or one of their other WR proves to be a better option.

2014 projections

Matthew Stafford 650-672-690pa 59.5cmp% 6.9ay/a 386-399-411cmp 4225-4537-4850yds 28-31-34TD

Johnson 150-190tg 58% 87-111rec 16.3ypc 1418-1613-1809 8-14TD
Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TD
Bush 70-100tg 67.5% 47-68rec 8.5ypc 400-578yds 2-4TD
Tate 70-110tg 60% 42-66rec 13.3ypc 559-878yds 3-7TD
Bell 50-80tg 77% 39-62rec 9.8ypc 377-608yds 0-1TD
Pettigrew 40-70tg 63% 25-44rec 10ypc 250-440yds 2-5TD

Durham 20-50tg 44% 9-22rec 13.2ypc 119-290yds 0-2TD
Fauria 10-60tg 60% 6-36rec 11.5ypc 69-414yds 0-5TD
TJ Jones 0-50tg 60% 0-22rec 12.5ypc 0-275yds 0-2TD

380-397-420ra (QB29) 0-10WRra(But most of these likely Bush)

340-368-390 for the RB

Bush 134-169-204ra 4.3ypc 576-727-877yds 70-100tg 67.5% 47-68rec 8.5ypc 400-578yds 2-4TD
Bell 134-169-204ra 4.3ypc 576-727-877yds 50-80tg 77% 39-62rec 9.8ypc 377-608yds 0-1TD
Riddick/Other 12-42-72ra 4.3ypc 52-181-310yds

The target ceiling for Ebron could climb to 150 or so similarly to what Graham has been seeing recently with the Saints in 2015.

 

[koreansteve]

I think Leshoure will cap the rushing upside of both Bell and Bush and the Lions will rely less on Bell this year than last in the event Bush is injured.

After reading TDW's analysis, I realized I had missed this. Last year the Lions ran the ball 408 times (after subtracting Stafford's 37 rushes). Bush and Bell accounted for 95% of those rushes, with only 19 going to other players and only 2 for Leshoure.

Leshoure is expecting more carries...and more than 2 seems easy to achieve "Detroit Lions RB Mikel Leshoure expects to have a bigger role in the offense than he did last season. Leshoure has altered his diet, arriving at camp leaner, which he feels has given him some extra pop."

If he can even get 50 carries, I think that lowers the potential for Bell to end up with 180 carries like it'd earlier suggested. Couple that with the fact that so many of Bell's carries came when Bush was out...it seems like 150-170 is more likely now that I reconsider. This is why I enjoy these threads, they make you reconsider your position and factor in things you didn't even consider.

I also like something that TDW said...

Either way, I almost feel that you have to draft both guys here or none of them. At worst, you can draft Bell if he falls too much

Last year it proved prudent to pickup Bell as insurance because Reggie was constantly questionable for games and then missed a couple of games. It wasn't much of an issue last year because Bell could be had very late in drafts. Now, according to FFC, Reggie Bush is being drafted in the 3rd round and Bell is going late in the 5th. Are you going to feel confident having RBush and letting someone else take Bell? Are you going to feel confident in Bell as your Flex option if Bush is healthy and starting...and is there any real "break-out" potential as long as Bush stays mostly healthy? Having both gives you flexibility in your lineup...but that requires spending 2 of your first 5 picks on the DET running backs. Certainly an interesting situation on draft day.

 

[Khy]

Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TD

The target ceiling for Ebron could climb to 150 or so similarly to what Graham has been seeing recently with the Saints in 2015.

Eh, it is possible but I'm not sure I'm buying it. And this is coming from a guy who drafted Ebron (albeit begrudgingly) in 2 different dynasty leagues. Just subtracting your middle ground target numbers on all the other receivers on the team (and using the middle 672 attempt number for Stafford) there's 137 attempts left out of those 672. So yes, it's in the workable range. But I just don't see it happening.

My thing with Ebron is I'm not sure how much of a 'chance' he's going to have Week 1. Is this going to be like Eifert where everyone just assumes he's going to get tons of work because he landed in a situation where he should've? Or are the Lions really just going to say "Ebron is CLEARLY our most talented TE. Slot him in and target him often, lets get the next Jimmy Graham workhorse going". I'm going like 75/25 on the odds here. 75% chance he lands in a similar scenario to how Eifert did last season where he gets like 40 receptions, 500 yards and 2-3 TDs and then a 25% chance he jumps into a Jeremy Shockey type rookie season when Shockey put up 74 receptions, 894 yards and 2 TDs (although if his receptions work out like this I assume he'll have a lot more than 2 TDs, probably somewhere in the 8-10 range).

 

[jurb26]

Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TDThe target ceiling for Ebron could climb to 150 or so similarly to what Graham has been seeing recently with the Saints in 2015.

Eh, it is possible but I'm not sure I'm buying it. And this is coming from a guy who drafted Ebron (albeit begrudgingly) in 2 different dynasty leagues. Just subtracting your middle ground target numbers on all the other receivers on the team (and using the middle 672 attempt number for Stafford) there's 137 attempts left out of those 672. So yes, it's in the workable range. But I just don't see it happening.

My thing with Ebron is I'm not sure how much of a 'chance' he's going to have Week 1. Is this going to be like Eifert where everyone just assumes he's going to get tons of work because he landed in a situation where he should've? Or are the Lions really just going to say "Ebron is CLEARLY our most talented TE. Slot him in and target him often, lets get the next Jimmy Graham workhorse going". I'm going like 75/25 on the odds here. 75% chance he lands in a similar scenario to how Eifert did last season where he gets like 40 receptions, 500 yards and 2-3 TDs and then a 25% chance he jumps into a Jeremy Shockey type rookie season when Shockey put up 74 receptions, 894 yards and 2 TDs (although if his receptions work out like this I assume he'll have a lot more than 2 TDs, probably somewhere in the 8-10 range).

Good questions and I have a few thoughts. 1st, Gresham is better than Pettigrew. 2nd, Ebron is better than Eifert. So, it's a bit more likely Ebron becomes involved earlier than Eifert did IMO. Also, I mentioned the drops for Stafford last year. Det has been the worst team in the league 2 years in a row at drops. Last year was perhaps a record settingly bad performance. Pettigrew has been a major problem in that regard. Either way, I think if Ebron can prove capable and consistent at catching the ball he will get increased work. Det has been desperate to find someone, anyone, who can just catch the dang ball the past few years. Don't get me wrong, Pettigrew was just part of the problem and not the entire problem. It took a team effort to accomplish their amazingly poor drop rate the last 2 years. I think Tate and Ebron will help greatly in that facet.

 

[Khy]

Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TDThe target ceiling for Ebron could climb to 150 or so similarly to what Graham has been seeing recently with the Saints in 2015.

Eh, it is possible but I'm not sure I'm buying it. And this is coming from a guy who drafted Ebron (albeit begrudgingly) in 2 different dynasty leagues. Just subtracting your middle ground target numbers on all the other receivers on the team (and using the middle 672 attempt number for Stafford) there's 137 attempts left out of those 672. So yes, it's in the workable range. But I just don't see it happening.

My thing with Ebron is I'm not sure how much of a 'chance' he's going to have Week 1. Is this going to be like Eifert where everyone just assumes he's going to get tons of work because he landed in a situation where he should've? Or are the Lions really just going to say "Ebron is CLEARLY our most talented TE. Slot him in and target him often, lets get the next Jimmy Graham workhorse going". I'm going like 75/25 on the odds here. 75% chance he lands in a similar scenario to how Eifert did last season where he gets like 40 receptions, 500 yards and 2-3 TDs and then a 25% chance he jumps into a Jeremy Shockey type rookie season when Shockey put up 74 receptions, 894 yards and 2 TDs (although if his receptions work out like this I assume he'll have a lot more than 2 TDs, probably somewhere in the 8-10 range).

Good questions and I have a few thoughts. 1st, Gresham is better than Pettigrew. 2nd, Ebron is better than Eifert. So, it's a bit more likely Ebron becomes involved earlier than Eifert did IMO. Also, I mentioned the drops for Stafford last year. Det has been the worst team in the league 2 years in a row at drops. Last year was perhaps a record settingly bad performance. Pettigrew has been a major problem in that regard. Either way, I think if Ebron can prove capable and consistent at catching the ball he will get increased work. Det has been desperate to find someone, anyone, who can just catch the dang ball the past few years. Don't get me wrong, Pettigrew was just part of the problem and not the entire problem. It took a team effort to accomplish their amazingly poor drop rate the last 2 years. I think Tate and Ebron will help greatly in that facet.

First one I agree on, not the second and bolded one though. I think Eifert is a better talent than Ebron. I think Eifert is every bit the physical talent, bigger and better hands than Ebron. Eifert also is a less egotistical dbag as well. Which can go a long way. If someone offered me Ebron for Eifert right now I'd probably debate taking it. Both have a Top 3 WR to pull covered (Mega vs Green) both have good but not elite QBs (Stafford and Dalton). They're both in very similar scenarios but I like the Bengals better as a team. That said, form a fantasy perspective, I like Ebron's target upsides better than Eifert because of one of the reasons you mentioned above which is htat Gresham is better than Pettigrew by (in my opinion) a rather large margin. Which means not only does Eifert have more target competition he is also in an offense that is likely to pass 50-100 times less this season. Ebron gets the edge of Eifert for me, but just slightly.

 

[jurb26]

I should mention that Pettigrew really wasn't that bad with drops last year. The RBs and Calvin were actually much worse. Calvin has actually been bad the past 2 years. Anyway, every other season of Pettigrew's career (3) he has been awful with drops.

 

[Biabreakable]

Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TD

The target ceiling for Ebron could climb to 150 or so similarly to what Graham has been seeing recently with the Saints in 2015.

Eh, it is possible but I'm not sure I'm buying it. And this is coming from a guy who drafted Ebron (albeit begrudgingly) in 2 different dynasty leagues. Just subtracting your middle ground target numbers on all the other receivers on the team (and using the middle 672 attempt number for Stafford) there's 137 attempts left out of those 672. So yes, it's in the workable range. But I just don't see it happening.

My thing with Ebron is I'm not sure how much of a 'chance' he's going to have Week 1. Is this going to be like Eifert where everyone just assumes he's going to get tons of work because he landed in a situation where he should've? Or are the Lions really just going to say "Ebron is CLEARLY our most talented TE. Slot him in and target him often, lets get the next Jimmy Graham workhorse going". I'm going like 75/25 on the odds here. 75% chance he lands in a similar scenario to how Eifert did last season where he gets like 40 receptions, 500 yards and 2-3 TDs and then a 25% chance he jumps into a Jeremy Shockey type rookie season when Shockey put up 74 receptions, 894 yards and 2 TDs (although if his receptions work out like this I assume he'll have a lot more than 2 TDs, probably somewhere in the 8-10 range).

That comment was for 2015 not 2014. For 2014 I have Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TD. So the mid point would be 95 targets 57 receptions 712 yards 5TD.

Don't see it happening? Why not? What do you think will happen?

What the Bengals did with Eifert does not really have much to do with this. Completely different type of an offense.

Graham targets last 3 seasons has been 149 135 144.

Pettigrew targets last 3 seasons has been 126 100 64

5 out of 6 times the primary TE has had 100 or more targets in the offense.

 

[Tau837]

Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TD

The target ceiling for Ebron could climb to 150 or so similarly to what Graham has been seeing recently with the Saints in 2015.

Eh, it is possible but I'm not sure I'm buying it. And this is coming from a guy who drafted Ebron (albeit begrudgingly) in 2 different dynasty leagues. Just subtracting your middle ground target numbers on all the other receivers on the team (and using the middle 672 attempt number for Stafford) there's 137 attempts left out of those 672. So yes, it's in the workable range. But I just don't see it happening.

My thing with Ebron is I'm not sure how much of a 'chance' he's going to have Week 1. Is this going to be like Eifert where everyone just assumes he's going to get tons of work because he landed in a situation where he should've? Or are the Lions really just going to say "Ebron is CLEARLY our most talented TE. Slot him in and target him often, lets get the next Jimmy Graham workhorse going". I'm going like 75/25 on the odds here. 75% chance he lands in a similar scenario to how Eifert did last season where he gets like 40 receptions, 500 yards and 2-3 TDs and then a 25% chance he jumps into a Jeremy Shockey type rookie season when Shockey put up 74 receptions, 894 yards and 2 TDs (although if his receptions work out like this I assume he'll have a lot more than 2 TDs, probably somewhere in the 8-10 range).

IMO there is virtually zero chance Ebron gets 100+ targets unless Pettigrew misses a lot of games. Using the logic that he could fill "the Graham role" is flawed for (at least) two reasons:

1. Graham himself didn't fill "the Graham role" as a rookie.

2. "The Graham role" wouldn't be what it is if Calvin Johnson played for the Saints.

 

[Biabreakable]

So Graham would see how many targets if he played with Calvin Johnson?

Why did Pettigrew get so many target along side Calvin Johnson?

eta- If you are going to claim that reasoning is flawed. Then demonstrate how it is flawed. Otherwise it is merely a claim.

 

[Tau837]

I mentioned the drops for Stafford last year. Det has been the worst team in the league 2 years in a row at drops. Last year was perhaps a record settingly bad performance. Pettigrew has been a major problem in that regard.

The problem with this logic is that drops are Ebron's biggest issue. He had an 11.43% drop rate in college.

 

[Phenix]

I don't how good of an idea it is releasing a starter who plays a position you are weak at.

Lions released CB Chris Houston.

Houston is hardly an elite cornerback, but he's a seven-year NFL starter who manned left corner in Detroit for each of the past four seasons, and was given a new five-year, $25 million deal last March. The Lions will move forward with Rashean Mathis, Darius Slay, and Bill Bentley likely occupying their top three cornerback jobs. Houston, 29, had probably the worst year of his career in 2013, and underwent offseason toe surgery. We suspect he'll get a shot in someone else's camp, but not before he gets healthy. Houston has been injury plagued several years running. Per OverTheCap.com, the Lions save $3.5 million in cash by cutting Houston, but lose $400,000 in salary cap space.
Related: Lions


Jun 13 - 2:47 PM

 

[jurb26]

I mentioned the drops for Stafford last year. Det has been the worst team in the league 2 years in a row at drops. Last year was perhaps a record settingly bad performance. Pettigrew has been a major problem in that regard.

The problem with this logic is that drops are Ebron's biggest issue. He had an 11.43% drop rate in college.

Which is why I said earlier if he proves himself...

 

[Tau837]

So Graham would see how many targets if he played with Calvin Johnson?

Why did Pettigrew get so many target along side Calvin Johnson?

Pettigrew had 130 targets in 2011. But in 2011:

- Titus Young was Detroit's #3 WR, and there was no viable #4 or #5 WR

- The RBs were Best, Kevin Smith, Keiland Williams, and Maurice Morris

So Pettigrew was the clear #3 target in 2011, with virtually nothing behind him to draw targets away.

Pettigrew had 110 targets in 2010. Similar supporting cast story.

Pettigrew had 102 targets in 2012, the season when Detroit had 740 pass attempts.

I don't see any of those situations as similar to the stretch in New Orleans when Graham has been getting more than 9 targets per game or similar to Ebron's situation in Detroit.

 

[Tau837]

Couple of previous posts relevant to this thread:

IMO Tate is underrated as a NFL WR, due in large part to the low passing attempts in Seattle's offense. All stats from PFF, with minimum 25% of team's snaps played:
- #22 overall WR and #17 in the passing game in 2013
- Caught 68.8% of 93 targets in 2013, including all 8 of his catchable deep targets
- #2 in YAC per reception in 2013
- #1 in tackles broken or avoided in 2013 and over past 3 years
- Just 5 drops on 149 catchable targets over last 3 seasons, the lowest drop rate of any NFL WR

On top of that, Detroit signed him to a $31M contract. I think it's pretty obvious they will target him quite a bit more than any other WR on the team besides Calvin.

(Side note: jurb, Tate is clearly going to help with the drop problem.)

Last year, Detroit attempted 634 passes. Their last 3 seasons, they averaged 675 pass attempts, though IMO that is inflated by the outlier 2012 season. I think it's reasonable to project 660.

Last year, 157 targets went to the RBs, and both Bush and Bell were very effective in the passing game. I'll round this up to 160 for this season.

Last year, 110 targets went to the TEs. Now they have added Ebron to their TE group, so it seems very likely the TE targets will go up. I'll project 140 targets.

That leaves 360 targets for the WRs.

Last year, Calvin had 156, despite missing 2 games. I see no reason to project him with less than 160 targets, which might be low if he stays healthy.

That leaves 200 targets for the remaining WRs. Last year, Durham had 85, Burleson had 55, and 4 others (Broyles, Ogletree, Ross, and Edwards) combined for 60.

If he stays healthy, IMO Tate is a lock for 100 targets. I mean, Kris Durham - Kris Durham! - got 85 last year. Tate is clearly better than Durham, and the team must think so, too, or they wouldn't have signed him to a $31M contract.

That leaves 100 targets for the rest of the WRs on the roster -- Durham, Broyles, Fuller, Ogletree, Edwards, Ross... not sure who will make the roster, but there will presumably be at least 4 other WRs besides Calvin and Tate who will receive some number of targets. Unless the WR3 gets virtually all of those 100 targets, it seems unlikely there would be any value there.

660 pass attempts
160 RBs
140 TEs
160 Calvin
100 Tate
100 all other WRs

 

[Biabreakable]

You bring up an interesting point about the high volume of targets in 2012 JWB. So I ran the numbers again from that perspective.

2012 Pettigrew 100tg 13.5% of 740 targets Scheffler 84 11.35% combined they accounted for 184 targets or 24.86% their 3rd TE Heller had 23 so 207 TE targets or 27.97% of the 740 targets.

2011 Pettigrew 126 targets 18.91% 666pa Scheffler 42 6.03% Heller 13 targets

At 672pa that would mean 188 TE targets in 2014 I have projected a mid range of 185 for the 3 current TE. The number 1 TE would have 90.72 targets at 13.5% which should be mid range. So I will consider scaling that back a bit. My mid range was 95. My bottom was still 70. I do not think I need to scale that back really.

672 at 18.91% (2011 numbers) would be 127 targets. So above the high end and mid range. Sorry scratch that. 125 would mean 100-150 targets if that were the mid range. So kind of what I am looking towards the future as a possible projection in 2015.


I am placing more emphasis on the Lions numbers than the Saits. 150 targets in 2015 would obviously be an upside projection then if things go well and Ebron makes progress in his 1st season. The low end would be 80 or 90.

I think you are putting too much weight on last years stats and not giving enough consideration to Stafford and the Lions past tendencies.

 

[Tau837]

You bring up an interesting point about the high volume of targets in 2012 JWB. So I ran the numbers again from that perspective.

2012 Pettigrew 100tg 13.5% of 740 targets Scheffler 84 11.35% combined they accounted for 184 targets or 24.86% their 3rd TE Heller had 23 so 207 TE targets or 27.97% of the 740 targets.

2011 Pettigrew 126 targets 18.91% 666pa Scheffler 42 6.03% Heller 13 targets

At 672pa that would mean 188 TE targets in 2014 I have projected a mid range of 185 for the 3 current TE. The number 1 TE would have 90.72 targets at 13.5% which should be mid range. So I will consider scaling that back a bit. My mid range was 95. My bottom was still 70. I do not think I need to scale that back really.

672 at 18.91% (2011 numbers) would be 127 targets. So above the high end and mid range. When I combined the numbers that is what I came up with but I can see shaving 10 targets off the bottom of that scale I guess as my mid point was 5 above


I am placing more emphasis on the Lions numbers than the Saits. 150 targets in 2015 would obviously be an upside projection then if things go well and Ebron makes progress in his 1st season. The low end would be 80 or 90.

I think you are putting too much weight on last years stats and not giving enough consideration to Stafford and the Lions past tendencies.

You may be right that I'm not giving proper consideration to Lions past tendencies. But:

1. Tate is better than any #2 WR they have had in any of the seasons you are using.

2. Durham/Broyles are likely better than any #3/#4 WRs they have had in most if not all of the seasons you are using.

3. They didn't have Bush or Bell prior to 2012.

4. They had an outlier season in 2012 due to 740 passing attempts.

For those reasons, IMO putting a lot of weight into seasons prior to 2013 doesn't make sense.

And on top of all that, they have a new coaching staff now.

 

[Biabreakable]

They are running the same Coryell offense as they were before with the new coaching staff. With an offensive coordinator who has stated quite clearly that they will use Ebron in the same manner as they used Graham in New Orleans. So that sounds like more of the same to me with a player they are very heavily invested in. I think they intend to use Ebron a lot.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

if you are looking for the guy to reverse the drop issue Tate would be the man.

 

[jurb26]

I'm cautiously optimistic about Det's offense this year. For 2 years now this team has failed to live up to expectations. Expectations built from a monster performance in 2011. There is plenty of blame to go around as to why that has been the case. Most of it rightfully falls on the QB, Stafford. However, there have been a slew of issues with this team over these 2 years and I feel as though Det may finally be turning the corner.

Stafford

Perhaps no QB in the NFL has more God given arm talent than Stafford. When he's on, he can be as good as any QB in the league. The ball explodes off his hand like few I've seen. Perhaps no play better demonstrates this than a throw he made in the 4th quarter vs. Dal as Det was driving for the winning score. Standing on the opposite hash he delivered a frozen rope 60 yds down the opposite sideline that was perfectly placed between the CB underneath and the S overtop to Durham. It's a throw only a hand full of guys on the planet can even attempt to make.

The problem with Stafford is that the highs are incredibly high yet the lows are incredibly low. He needs to build consistency to his game. Most of this starts with his simple mechanics. Unfortunately because of his rare arm talent, Stafford has grown lazy with his delivery and it cost him at times. Supposedly this has been the major focus of his offseason and I'm hopeful that is in fact the case. Another issue is again a typical one with arm talent guys. He never sees a throw as impossible and has that gunslinger mentality. This may have become embellished over the years thanks to Calvin being able to catch anything. Stafford must learn to pick and choose his battles when it comes to forcing passes.

As much blame as Stafford deserves, the Det problems have not solely been his. As I mentioned before Det has led the NFl in drops each of the past 2 seasons. That's not a stat to be proud of. On top of that there has been a sever lack of any WR2 worth mentioning. Of course the gap from Calvin to anyone else is going to be stark no matter who the other guy is. None the less, Calvin has accounted for a remarkable 361 targets in the past 2 years, over 50% of the Det WR targets. That's despite missing 2 games. If you take away the games he's missed Calvin actually has roughly 55% of the WR targets. So, there has been a clear absence of a capable threat on the other side.

Why is any of that important? Well, because I think that has changed this year with the addition of Golden Tate. Tate doesn't come in with a great deal of flash. Nor should he. What he does offer though is exactly what Det and Stafford have been needing, though. A capable WR2 who can catch the ball and make plays. Det wasn't satisfy hitching their wagon entirely to Tate this offseason. They also went out and drafted the best TE in the draft, Ebron. While I'm a bit conflicted as to what he will bring to this offense just yet. It's a clear indication that Det is interested in fixing their lack of weapons on the offensive side.

We already know that Stafford has the best WR in football to throw to. He's also got one of the better receiving backs in the NFL as well in Bush, though his drop totals from last year leave a lot to be desired. The offensive line has made solid progress the past few years despite the otherwise impeding doom around them. Combine it all together and I think we are going to see a great fantasy year for Stafford.

Bush/Bell

Det was surprisingly one of the better teams in the NFL at offering fantasy value at RB last year. In Bush's first season with the Lions he performed at or above expectations for fantasy owners. He totaled 1512 yds from scrimmage and 10 TDs on the season. For PPR leagues he was more valuable thanks to his 54 receptions. He did this while playing in only 14 games. Meanwhile, Bell came seemingly out of nowhere to post a 1200 yd and 8 TD season. The main reason for their stellar performance was the fact that both were involved heavily in the passing game. Bush and Bell ranked 2nd and 3rd in receptions on Det last year.

Given the additions to the offense this year I'm not sure I see both RBs as able to maintain such lofty fantasy results 2 years in a row. Unfortunately for Bell, I think he will see the largest reduction in work. Part of his success was largely because Bush was injured and missed 2 games to begin with. Even still, Bush had a great deal more targets than Bell (80 to 68) and Bush had more carries. The saving grace may be Bell's use near the GL. I envision many of the looks these RBs got in the passing game going to Tate and Ebron this year. Such is life though, that reduction will not be fair and will favor Bush heavily.

Calvin

What's their to say about the guy that is universally considered the best WR in the land? He's been forced to carry the Det passing attack for more seasons than I can remember. As I pointed out earlier he's been on a remarkable pace for targets averaging 12 per game the past 2 years. Perhaps his fantasy owners won't like the fact that their could be some diversification to the targets but I think it's a much needed evolution to the Det offense. More sustained drives and overall scoring should help Calvin in the long run and I expect that to be the case this year.

Tate

Golden Tate is the Golden key to a much improved Det attack this year in my estimation. As noted prior, Det is been starved for a complimentary WR2 for years. Tate should fill that void nicely. Tate comes from a Sea team that never really allowed him to flourish as WR. Mainly because they didn't need him too. Still, Tate has produced an impressive 109 receptions, 1586 yds and 12 TDs his past 2 seasons. Better yet he's caught over 65% of his targets over that same time period. If he can convert his targets into receptions at that rate in Det then I have little doubt he can produce career best numbers in this offense. As long as Calvin is lined up on the other side he will be guaranteed to get softer coverage and he's proven capable of beating it.

Ebron/Pettigrew

The TE distribution is easily the most difficult portion to project for me in Det. Pettigrew is a guy at one point I thought had massive potential to break into the top tier of fantasy TEs. All of the framework was there; top QB, wide open offense, lots of targets, poor defense, ect. Yet Pettigrew just can't find a way to produce. A lot of this is due to drops which have plagued all 4 years he's been in the NFL. I believe Det has finally made the decision to move on from Pettigrew, thus the drafting of Ebron.

How quickly can we really expect Det to phase Pettigrew out though? Ebron is after all just a rookie and rookies have historically had a tough time adjusting to the NFL at TE. Worse yet, the very thing that had plagued Pettigrew all these years is a primary weakness of Ebron. Drops! This is a puzzle I'll surely not solve. Therefore, I'm inclined to call this one down the middle and safe. Boring I know. I think Ebron will be brought along relatively slowly but he could be lined up is specialty formations as a pass catcher giving him added fantasy value.

Projections

Stafford

395 completions, 630 attempts, 4755 yds, 35 TDs, 16 Ints

40 carries, 80 yds, 2 TDs

Bush

245 carries, 1165 yds, 5 TDs

82 targets, 58 receptions, 534 yds, 3 TDs

Bell

150 carries, 600 yds, 7 TDs

55 targets, 39 receptions, 389 yds, 1 TD

Calvin

168 targets, 92 receptions, 1518 yds, 14 TDs

Tate

125 targets, 77 receptions, 1040 yds, 6 TDs

Ebron

65 targets, 41 receptions, 498 yds, 3 TDs

Pettigrew

65 targets, 39 receptions, 429 yds, 2 TDs

 

[swirvenirvin]

I see some higher numbers in here for Tate. The truth is no one has really excelled at the #2 spot behind Calvin. Lots of mouths to feed here. I'm thinking more of 58 - 800 - 5 for tate

 

[Biabreakable]

I found this bit interesting from Fausts training camp thread-

• An interesting thing occurred during individual periods Tuesday. Instead of working on their own, the Lions split their tight ends up between the offensive line and with the pass-catching receivers and running backs catching passes. So Brandon Pettigrew, for instance, was working with the line blocking while Joseph Fauria and Eric Ebron were catching passes. This, Pettigrew said, was different than how the Lions operated under former coach Jim Schwartz.“We rotate and go down there during periods,” Pettigrew said. “We have five guys here, why not split it up and have some guys down there and some guys down here.” Pettigrew sees this as not only helping his blocking fundamentals, but an aid to Ebron and Fauria as well. http://espn.go.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/9417/lions-camp-report-day-2

 

[Ted Mullins]

That's good info. Have we seen anything semi-official pertaining to Leshoure's role? A lot of what I have read suggests that him being irrelevant last year was a coach's decision, so I wonder if he will get back into the mix? I am not sure last year's split is that relevant with a new staff. Seems like Leshoure being relevant really caps Joique's upside.

 

[Biabreakable]

I have not heard anything about Leshoure but I haven't been looking for it either.

There has been a lot of positive buzz about Theo Riddick that I wasn't looking for but found me.

You bring up a good point though that there may be more than 2 RBs in Lombardi's plans for the running game.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Yep, that's my concern...will they force the 3 way thing like the Saints did? I really feel like between Bush and Bell you have your power running, home run threat, and receiving all covered, but I am always leery of new coaching staffs - I really don't think usage last year tells us a whole lot about what the new staff wants to do or how they perceive Leshoure. I have been under the assumption that with Bell's new contract he is a good bet to get plenty of work, but I think if Leshoure is relevant it will affect Bell way more than Bush.

 

[matuski]

Fauria outshining/playing Ebron imho. Interested to see his use going forward preseason.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Fauria outshining/playing Ebron imho. Interested to see his use going forward preseason.

They showed Fauria making some nice blocks which was supposed to be his weakness. A lot of targets on this team to split up the catches.

 

[LawFitz]

Great points about a possible 3 way RB committee.

As far as drops go, how much of that has to do with Stafford not knowing how to put touch on his passes? Seems like every ball is a fast ball with him. Russell Wilson is the polar opposite in that regard IMO. Maybe that also explains Calvin's broken fingers.

Great analysis in this thread overall, but I don't think Stafford has the make up to take his game to the next (Brees) tier. He'll continue to be a compiler, which isn't bad but I see little reason to take him at his adp, with so many similar options rounds and rounds down the draft.

 

[Ilov80s]

Great points about a possible 3 way RB committee.

As far as drops go, how much of that has to do with Stafford not knowing how to put touch on his passes? Seems like every ball is a fast ball with him. Russell Wilson is the polar opposite in that regard IMO. Maybe that also explains Calvin's broken fingers.

Great analysis in this thread overall, but I don't think Stafford has the make up to take his game to the next (Brees) tier. He'll continue to be a compiler, which isn't bad but I see little reason to take him at his adp, with so many similar options rounds and rounds down the draft.

I agree and think there's a real chance his attempts goes down this year.

 

[Phenomena]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/2014-nfc-north-preview-megatron-200004105.html

Damn, that's a scathing analysis of Stafford. After reading that I don't think he's draft-able near his ADP.

Then again, they aren't taking the addition of Caldwell very much into account. He did wonders with Brees. Even a modest increase in efficiency would make a drastic increase in production.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I see some higher numbers in here for Tate. The truth is no one has really excelled at the #2 spot behind Calvin. Lots of mouths to feed here. I'm thinking more of 58 - 800 - 5 for tate

up to 70-940 and 6 now. Ebron is going to be worthless this yr

 

[G5781]

From a friend that works at a local hospital and deals with team doctors for Detroit, Calvin has a bone on bone issue. Micro fracture surgery was recommended but he did not want it. Take it for what it's worth.

If this is true, this is a pretty big deal. Anybody know if players typically play through this type of injury and with success?

 

[Phenomena]

From a friend that works at a local hospital and deals with team doctors for Detroit, Calvin has a bone on bone issue. Micro fracture surgery was recommended but he did not want it. Take it for what it's worth.

If this is true, this is a pretty big deal. Anybody know if players typically play through this type of injury and with success?

Is there any way to get this validated?

 

[Yenrub]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/2014-nfc-north-preview-megatron-200004105.html

Damn, that's a scathing analysis of Stafford. After reading that I don't think he's draft-able near his ADP.

Then again, they aren't taking the addition of Caldwell very much into account. He did wonders with Brees. Even a modest increase in efficiency would make a drastic increase in production.

From the article

The fundamental problem with the Lions is that they think they have a star at the most important position in the game when, what they actually have, is the equivalent of Sam Bradford with much better weapons. Stafford is a basically a parasite on their offense. If Calvin Johnson starts to decline or gets hurt, the Lions will quickly find themselves with a bottom-ten quarterback.

 

[Ilov80s]

From a friend that works at a local hospital and deals with team doctors for Detroit, Calvin has a bone on bone issue. Micro fracture surgery was recommended but he did not want it. Take it for what it's worth.

If this is true, this is a pretty big deal. Anybody know if players typically play through this type of injury and with success?

Is there any way to get this validated?

No and I think I should just delete it. I had a few drinks and probably shouldn't have posted anything that can't be verified.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I never realized how much better Golden Tate was than Nate Burleson.

 

[Ilov80s]

Lions would be smart to go run heavy this year-get Bush/Bell 30 carries a game. Stafford is too erratic to just sling it around all the time. Go run heavy, lots of short passes to the backs and then kill teams on play action.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Good idea 80s but the defensive back field stinks and i think they will be slinging it alot

 

[Ilov80s]

Good idea 80s but the defensive back field stinks and i think they will be slinging it alot

You aren't helping the DBs by throwing all these interceptions and lengthening the game with incompletes.

 

[cvnpoka]

that riddick vulture and usage has gotta be pretty frightening to bush or bell owners. even leshoure got first team run. anyone else concerned? ive been targeting bell like its my job lately but now dont feel so comfortable. someone talk me off the ledge.