It almost feels like every season Green Bay experiences an inordinate amount of injuries to key players and yet somehow, someway – they continue to find ways to stay relevant. And in doing so, they continue to unearth some very nice value players across their roster while staying competitive. The latest example of this was Jarret Boykin who after being undrafted in 2011, worked his way into a very significant role in a decimated Green Bay offense. Now, low and behold, he’s a nice piece. Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien weren’t great but they helped to keep the Packers in it and by the time Rodgers came back, Flynn looked halfway decent. Not bad for a QB the Raiders got rid of months earlier. If there is one team that deals with adversity on the same level as the Patriots, it’s these guys. With that said, every season also seems to be an exercise in ‘what if’.
If you look at the Packers offense…it’s simply stacked. They have:
A Top 3 QB
A Top 6-8 workhorse RB
a WR trio that I’d put in the Top 5.
In short, this is an offense that you want a piece of. And believe it or not, there’s actually some value here to be had.
Aaron Rodgers – As it stands now, Rodgers is part of the big 3 QB’s including Manning & Brees. At the end of the day, with his injury being seen largely as a fluke, there simply seems to be NO risk attached to him. Rodgers has simply been amongst the most productive and efficient QB’s in NFL history since becoming a starter. Career totals that include:
A 65.8 Completion Rate
A 8.19 YPA
A 188:52 TD-to-INT ratio
And if you just look at his last 3 seasons, the numbers are even more impressive. I know Peyton Manning had the best season ever by a QB last season, but I don’t see why I would rank Manning over Rodgers, or Rodgers over Manning. Does anyone think that in this new NFL that Rodgers isn’t capable of having a year for all-time? I mean last year would have been an epic year for Rodgers in terms of what he was on pace for:
5018 Passing Yards
240 Rushing Yards
34 Passing TD’s
He was also heading for a career high in attempts. One thing I do like about Rodgers is the edge he plays with. Obviously his TD celebration is one that has become famous, but it was Rodgers subtle way originally of saying F-U. So coming off a year in which he experienced his first significant injury, I think he’s the type to really take that personally and use for motivation to be better than he ever has. Having just turned 30, he’s entering the prime years of his career and his offense may be as stacked as it’s ever been personnel wise. More and more, experienced QB’s are being handed the reins to control pace/tempo of their offenses. Rodgers certainly qualifies in this category so as long as he plays all 16, I think we’re in for a career year for him.
Eddie Lacy – Those who bought in on the rookie RB in Round 3 last year were handsomely rewarded. A bruising yet surprisingly nimble runner, Lacy filled a void in Green Bay that had existed since Ryan Grant was playing well. A trusted RB that could gain tough yards on the ground and in bunches. And to boot, Lacy is far from useless catching the ball. If you exclude the game against WAS where he left after one carry, he averaged 22.7 touches per game. Extrapolated over an entire season, that comes to 363 touches. Fact is, from October on, Lacy only had 3 games with fewer than 22 touches.
But I wonder if GB will be as willing to ride Lacy as heavily as they did his rookie year. James Starks has proven to be a capable fill-in runner. IMO, there seemed to be too many games where Starks was not utilized as well as he could have been. Starks has proven brittle over his career, but the role of giving him 8-10 touches per game seems to be one that suits his talents and his durability quite well. Yet in 6 games, he played fewer than 10 snaps. And he only played 13. Whether Jonathan Franklin can step up and be a factor is also something to watch in Green Bay.
Ryan Grant had 2.5 very good years for the Packers from 2007-2009. In 2010, he went down with a severe foot injury in the seasons first game and he was never the same player again. I wonder if Mike McCarthy is one to have taken something from that experience to make sure that the doesn’t expose his star RB more than he has to. With Rodgers in the game last year, Lacy averaged 24.2 touches vs. 21.5 when he was injured. Is it necessary for the Packers offense to succeed to be that reliant on Lacy? Is playing Lacy for what would have amounted to a pro-rated total of 780 snaps something the Packers need to do on offense? A team like MIN…yes. Adrian Peterson has to be on the field a lot because he is their only real consistent offensive threat.
Listen, I like Lacy. But usage and exposure are factors that need to be addressed here. And while the player in this case doesn’t concern me his usage and exposure does. And I think the Packers have done a good job in rebuilding their rushing attack and I could see them being a little more mindful of Lacy’s time on the field. If you’re expecting a Year 2 jump from Lacy production wise, I’d temper your expectations.
Jordy Nelson – As WR stats have expanded to include targets, I think a lot of attention has been paid to how often a player gets targeted in the passing game. Playing a numbers game the wisdom is that targets equals production simply based on a numbers game. But what if there was an outside receiver whose proven over his career with his QB, that he can put up a 70% catch percentage? Since 2010, when Aaron Rodgers is the QB, that’s what Jordy Nelson has done.
His last 3 years in particular his 16 game prorated stats look like this with Rodgers (a span of 36 games played):
73 Receptions
106 Targets
1252 Receiving Yards
17.2 YPC
13 TD’s.
And simply looking at Nelson’s stats during the 8 games he played with Rodgers last season makes the numbers above look paltry (49/810/7). Being successful in FF is being able to find even the thinnest margins of value between certain players. And at the end of the day, there is simply no receiver in the NFL quite like Nelson. Now to be sure, Nelson benefits tremendously from having Aaron Rodgers as his QB. There Is no way that Nelson puts up these numbers with Matt Stafford at the helm. But to have a 70% catch percentage…that’s an area where only some of the best TE’s and slot WR’s reach…and their YPC averages are in the 11-12 range. Nelson is a downfield threat. So as spectacular as his numbers above are, there almost seems to be very realistic room for growth. I don’t know if there is concern the Packers will pass less now that they’ve found a stud bellcow in Lacy. That didn’t happen last year. But I don’t think it hurts Nelson one bit. The 106 targets 3 year average, well that would have placed him 37th in the NFL last season. So I think the upside here is huge and largely hidden. I’ll be watching his ADP closely, but I see very little difference between him and Demaryius.
Randall Cobb – Cobb has shown himself to be as good a swiss army knife player as there is in the NFL his 3 seasons. In some ways, based on targets, Cobb is the WR1 on GB ahead of Nelson, but only by the smallest of margins. At the end of the day, Rodgers is just as likely to go to Cobb as he is Nelson with the exception of in the red zone. Since 2011, Cobb’s numbers in the red zone are (according to ESPN splits):
12 Receptions
76 Yards
5 TD’s
Nelson?
29 Receptions
204 Yards
17 TD’s
Granted, the first of those years 2011, was Cobb’s rookie year. He’s gotten better in the red zone each year of his career. But Nelson is one of the best red zone WR’s n the NFL. His physical dimensions help. So I’m a bit puzzled as to why Jordy Nelson is only considered WR7 while Cobb is WR10 in current FFC ADP. It’s not even that Cobb is overvalued. It just serves to show from my POV, how undervalued Nelson is at this stage of the draft evaluation process.
Cobb was on his way to his best season last year before his broken leg. When you pair him with Rodgers, he still an extremely safe pick in terms of expected production in Round 3 of drafts. And the fact that he can be counted on to add to his YFS totals on the ground only adds to his appeal. I don’t think Cobb has reached his production ceiling yet. His best years are still in front of him. However, TD’s are an important barometer in terms of projecting upside and with Nelson being his running mate, I see some limitation here.
Jarrett Boykin – When Randall Cobb went down with his broken leg, Boykin stepped in admirably to fill the void created. In the two games he played with Rodgers before Rodgers went down, he put up a 13/192/1 line. Not bad for a guy that essentially came out of nowhere. But when Cobb & Rodgers returned, Boykin in 2 games only went 2/8/0 despite playing 57 snaps. Granted, the WR corps was Nelson/Cobb/(James) Jones. So he was clearly WR4. But he didn’t register those two games. However, he did show enough to allow the Packers to pack Jones’ suitcases for him on the way to Oakland. The wild-card in Boykin’s projection is Jermichael Finley’s status. Finley is in limbo because of the neck injury he suffered last year, but indications still seem to be strong that he could be back with the Packers in 2014. If he’s back with the Packers, it does them give them a viable weapon at the TE position in the passing game. If he’s not, then I don’t think a combination of Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers will factor much into the overall production equation. Even if Finley does come back, Boykin showed enough ability to still be the viable and undisputed #3 option in the passing game. His big body and feel for route running is an intangible quality that makes him a good fit in a WCO. And as he develops a rapport with Rodgers, it will not only give the Packers two big targets on the outside for Rodgers, but will give the Packers more flexibility to move Cobb around the field and formation. At WR52…Boykin is severely undervalued
Davante Adams – If there is one thing the Packers know how to do personnel wise, it’s scout WR’s. And when you have a QB that can take advantage of a multitude of weapons, you make sure that he has enough weapons to throw to. Adams is not a finished product by any stretch. But with Rodgers ability and McCarthy’s ability to schematically take advantage of coverage situations and formations, I see Adams having the ability to have a situational impact in this offense even as a WR4 by being given a specific package of plays. His snaps on the field will most likely top out at the 300-350 range, but he’ll be able to do some damage because of Rodgers elite ability and the attention other weapons on the field will draw away from Adams.
Predictions:
Rodgers – 396 Completions 587 Attempts 5177 Passing Yards 40 TD’s 11 INT’s; 42 Rushes 193 Rushing Yards 3 TD’s
Lacy – 269 Rushes 1184 Rushing Yards 12 TD’s; 41 Receptions 255 Receiving Yards 1 TD.
Starks – 112 Rushes 469 Rushing Yards 2 TD’s; 15 Receptions 121 Receiving Yards 1 TD.
Franklin – 32 Rushes 108 Rushing Yards; 4 Receptions 25 Receiving Yards.
Nelson – 91 Receptions 1505 Receiving Yards, 14 TD’s
Cobb – 88 Receptions 1147 Receiving Yards 7 TD’s; 12 Rushes 112 Rushing Yards 1 TD.
Boykin – 67 Receptions 863 Receiving Yards 9 TD’s.
Adams – 32 Receptions 532 Receiving Yards 4 TD’s.
**CAVEAT** - With Finley’s status uncertain, that could change the distribution if he eventually signs on. But with a TE combination of Quarless/Rodgers/Lyerla, I don’t see much production here.
