2014 Team/Player Spotlight -- Minnesota Vikings (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: Minnesota Vikings

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Recommended Players to Discuss (Player Page links provided):

QB Teddy Bridgewater

QB Matt Cassel

RB Adrian Peterson

RB Jerick McKinnon

WR Greg Jennings

WR Cordarrelle Patterson

TE Kyle Rudolph

Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
• FBG Projections

 

[Biabreakable]

I am going to try to work on the Vikings some today.

I found this article by Jeff Miller very interesting awhile back so thought I would share- https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1711/the-norv-narrative-offensive-coordinator-impact-in-fantasy-football/

320 Years of Proof
At the top of this column I showed how Turner affects a team’s fantasy output versus the seasons before he was hired and after he left. I also compared that to 10 of his contemporary offensive coordinators. The issue with that comparison is the small sample size; it covers a 11 subjects and only 129 seasons. In order to really see how Turner stacks up, I pulled stats for every NFL team for each of the last 10 years.

With all the numbers crunched, I found that the average increase in a team’s fantasy production in a coordinator’s first season is 3.1%. Turner obliterates that figure, as he raises fantasy scoring by 18%. What’s more, the new Vikings coach averages a 27.3% increase during his entire tenure versus the season before he was hired. The NFL average is 7.7%.

Narrative Confirmed
After 30-some odd hours of research and writing, I think I can safely say that the Norv Narrative is the real deal. In the interest of full disclosure, part of me wanted to spit in the face of the hundreds of “experts” who supported their version of the narrative with anecdotal evidence (or none at all) by proving Turner was less than the what he has been out to be. But a bigger part of me was excited to learn what I did as it has me all geared up to see what he does with Patterson, Jennings, Peterson, and Rudolph. I am no Nostradamus, but if the past 23 years have taught us anything, it should be that Minnesota’s offense is about to take a significant step in the right direction.

 

[jurb26]

Great find Bia. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Biabreakable]

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

New Coaches Mike Zimmer/Norv Turner
Draft/Free agency QB Teddy Bridgewater RB Jerick McKinnon Matt Cassel re-signed


I have been a little bit reluctant to dip into Norv Turners history again after last season when I did projections for the Browns. I spent quite a bit of time reading about the air Coryell offense and Norv Turners use of skill players in the offense. Much of my expectations for Trent Richardson were based on Turners historical use of RB in this offense. Both as a runner and receiver. So to have all of that pop smoke as Richardson was traded away to the Colts. Now don't I feel silly?

Despite this egg on the face moment, I am very excited for what Norv Turner brings to the Vikings offense. As much as I tried to be optimistic about some of the interesting things I saw Bill Musgrave doing with the Vikings offense, it really made Peterson's job more difficult at times. With so many 2TE/1FB turtle formations. The defense would not need to defend as much of the field, and so in better position to stop Peterson.Turner has a history of pushing the ball down the field. The average depth of target in his offenses are well above average based on studies I have read. I think that is an important thing to do to make some space for Peterson and other players in the offense.

Listening to Turners comments since he was hired by the Vikings I have learned to have a lot of respect to how he approaches the game of football. Despite the evidence of history I do not think we should pigeonhole Turner to being this rigid in his philosophy or tactics.

I learned this from the 2014 NFL draft cycle, how draft analysts would characterize Turners offense in such simplistic terms that it had everyone mocking Zach Mettenberger or Tom Savage to the Vikings and some did not consider Teddy Bridgewater a good fit for the offense because the only 'weaknesses' to Bridgewaters game are size, the deep ball and pro days.

I recall Turner speaking up for Bridgewater after his pro day and in following interview Turner pointed out that he was part of the Chargers drafting Drew Brees.

I am still pinching myself a bit that somehow in this alternative universe the Vikings were able to trade up to pick 32 and draft Teddy Bridgewater who early on in the process was being discussed as the 1st overall pick.

But I will roll with it!

What does this mean for the Vikings in 2014?

Well it may mean a more intermediate passing game than what one might traditionally expect from a Norv Turner offense to suit the players strengths. Or perhaps it is just hard for me to visualize this with the Vikings after the shock of having the best WR to ever take the top off a defense I have ever seen to the west coast Turtle offense the Vikings have been running recently. Which really was only exciting when the gunslinger Favre played well. But Favre was pretty much doing his own thing.

How much will Rudolph be targeted?

I think this is one of the keys to figuring out the Vikings passing offense and how the ball will be distributed. Turner has pretty heavily targeted the TE in the passing game as well as RB and FB. My theory is that when this happens it leaves less targets for the WR. The WR 2 in Turners offense has not historically done very well. A 3rd WR even less than a 2nd. How much the Vikings use Rudolph and other TE in the passing game will affect how much is left for the WR.


2013 Vikings 1013(-44sk) 546pa 5.8ypa 423ra (QB52) 4.9ypc
2012 Vikings 1001(-32sk) 483pa 5.3ypa 486ra (QB60) 5.4ypc
2011 Vikings 1007(-49sk) 510pa 5.3ypa 448ra (QB64) 5.2ypc

I am not going to use 2011-2012 Vikings data. The Vikings offense has been poor since Favre crumbled. Petersons 2k season could possibly be repeated, but that is very unlikely.

Vikings with Norv 3yravg 1038(-43sk)995plays 563pa 432ra 43.41%run

I did not use the 2013 Browns plays for run/pass distribution. What I did was add the 2011-2012 Chargers with the 2013 Vikings which ends up as 43.41& run

As I posted above, here is some interesting research on Norv Turners impact on an offense in his 1st season-

"With all the numbers crunched, I found that the average increase in a team’s fantasy production in a coordinator’s first season is 3.1%. Turner obliterates that figure, as he raises fantasy scoring by 18%. What’s more, the new Vikings coach averages a 27.3% increase during his entire tenure versus the season before he was hired. The NFL average is 7.7%."

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1711/the-norv-narrative-offensive-coordinator-impact-in-fantasy-football/

I wish I could use this 18% jump found by Jeff Miller, but as this was done based on fantasy points and not raw stats. I cannot really use this information.

But it definitely is a positive. Interesting information to consider for all of the offensive coordinators.

QB Matt Cassel 59% career completion 26.41apg ay/a 6.2 2.9%int 7.1% sk

Cassel had one of his best seasons from a efficiency stand point 7.1Y/A since his last year with the Patriots. The interceptions were too high and some of the passes he threw looked like prayers to me. Some times the reciever made a great play on the ball.

Cassel is a QB Norv Turner wanted to bring in to Cleveland last season, but Cassel instead went to MN. So Cassel is a QB who Turner thinks fits his system.

What I have heard Turner talk about for what he is looking for his QBs to do, is anticipate where the open areas of the defense and the receiver will be, and to throw to that spot before the receiver gets there. This takes great route running and synchronicity with the receivers and the QB to work. This is part of why I believe Cassel and Jennings will be the primary combination. As I am not confident that Patterson can be trusted to be in the right spot at the right time yet while he is still developing as a route runner and downfield receiver.

At 32 years old Cassel may play some of his best football this season. As QB seem to hit their prime in their early thirties. He will be pushed by Teddy Bridgewater who may take over at some point this season. If Cassel does well early however they may just keep playing him as long as the Vikings are in the playoff hunt.

If Teddy Bridgewater starts at or before the halfway point, I think that will lead to the Vikings running the ball more. As most teams do when starting a rookie QB. So if that happens I would expect the run/pass distribution to shift to 47% run.


Running game-


The offensive line returns all 5 starters from the past 2 seasons and the offensive line coach was retained so there is a lot of continuity and ability here. Phil Loadholt has been playing very well at RT and RG Bradon Fusco earned incentive bonuses after the season because of how well he played. C Sullivan one of the better centers in the league. Matt Kalil did not play as well as he did as a rookie. Kalil played fantastic as a rookie in 2012, being a instrumental part of Petersons 2k rushing season. Hoping he gets back to playing at that level again. Kalil played through a knee injury that may have been part of his struggle. He and LG Johnson were not as good as in 2012. Johnson was re-signed but he may be pushed for playing time by Jeff Baca or 5th round pick David Yankey.

Norv 3yravg 1038(-43sk)995plays 563pa 432ra (QB32) 43.41%run


2013 371 non QB runs -12 Patterson 359RB runs

Peterson 2013 19.93ra/gm = 319ra 89% ra Career 19.7ra/gm 5ypc 98.2ypg .835TD/gm = 315ra 1571yds 13.359TD


432 (-32QB -15WR) 385RB

RB1 79.5% = 306ra
RB2 15% = 58ra
RB3/4 5% = 19ra

What if the Vikings ran the ball 47% of the time?

468ra -(QB32+WR15=47) 421RBra

RB1 79.5% = 334ra
RB2 15% = 63ra
RB3/4 5% = 21ra

What if Peterson had 85% of the RB carries and they ran the ball 47% of the time? He had 89% of the RB carries last season, taking out the 2 games that he missed.

RB1 85% = 398ra
RB2 10% = 47ra
RB3/4 5% = 23ra

Norv Turner has given his lead RB the ball this much before with Ricky Williams in Miami 383 and 392 carries. Williams was only 25-26yrs old at that time.

Miami had not much else to work with at that time as well. I think the Vikings have more options. 2007 and 2008 Norv had LT carry the ball 315 and 292 times when LT was 28-29. As a rookie Norv gave LT the ball 339 times at age 22. 2006 Frank Gore 312. Lamont Jordan was on pace for 311ra in his 14games. 2004 was a bit like 2013 Browns. Norv had Wheatley and Zereoue. Wheatley got hurt and they only ran the ball 327 times. FB Zack Crockett got more involved in the offense. 1995 Terry Allen 338ra at age 27 after 2 ACL surguries. The 1st RB I know of to recover from this injury and play well again. Norv gave Allen the ball 347 times in 1996. Allen only played 10 games in 1997 Stephen Davis filled in the 6 games he missed. They combined for 351ra. Norv gave Emmitt Smith 365 and 373 carries.

If I average those 12 high marks I get 343 carries. So I will use this for an upside for Peterson in 2014. Peterson has had more carries than his twice before in 2008 and 2012.


2014

Running game

Adrian Peterson 315-329-343ra 5ypc 1575-1645-1715yds 11-13-15TD 69tg 45-49-55rec 8.2ypc 380-406-451yds 1-2TD

Jerrick McKinnon 23-47-63ra 4.3ypc 99-202-271yds 1-3TD

Asiata/Line 21-47ra 4.3ypc 90-202yds 0-1TD

I think it is possible that Patterson could average 1.5ra/game which would be 24ra as an upside for him and likely 8 being the low. Patterson did average 2 carries/game in the last 5 weeks of the season, scoring 3TD. Patterson had only 2 carries prior to that point of the season.

Patterson 8-24ra 13.2ypc 106-211-317yds

FB Jerome Felton was suspended so missed games at the start of 2013. The Vikings tried to use Line as the FB but he did not play nearly as well as Felton as a lead blocker in those early games. I thought this was a poor coaching decision to ask Line to do that as a rookie when he is more of a RB/FB tweener. If Norv likes Line he could potentially be used at times in the passing game unless he thinks Felton is up to that task. The Vikings have been using the lead
draw which is a play made famous by Norv Turner with Emmitt Smith on the Cowboys. So it will be interesting to see how often the Vikings use a FB. Rhett Ellison is a good blocker as well but perhaps not as explosive a reciever as Line or Felton might be. Ellison plays TE as well.

Passing game-

2013 Vikings 1013(-44sk) 969 plays 546pa 423ra 43.65%

Wide Recievers 2013 stats and comments-

Jennings 742os 71.2% (15gm 49.46/gm 791 76%) 106tg 68rec 11.8ypc (14.9carypc) 4TD (.513TD/game career)

"In addition, we’ve already seen what the Cassel-to-Jennings combo can achieve, as Jennings hauled in 58 targets for 491 yards (8.47 yards per target) and four touchdowns with Cassel as the starter. This is in stark contrast to his games with Ponder: 48 targets, 313 yards (6.52 yards per target), no touchdowns."

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/2265/will-minnesota-vikings-receivers-be-relevant-in-2014

If I pro rate these 6 games for Jennings with Cassel to 16 I get 91rec 1101yds 8TD


Simpson 643os 61.7% 102tg 48rec 15.1ypc (13.8carypc) 1TD (.14TD/game career)

Simpson managed to get kept on the team by talking HC Zimmer into bringing him back. I do not expect much from him as the WR3 because of the target distribution. It is possible Simpson gets beaten out by Jarius Wright.

Patterson 436os 41.8% 78tg 45rec 10.4ypc 4TD 12ra 13.2ypc 3TD
(46rec 16.9ypc 5TD 25ra 12.3ypc 3TD college)

A very explosive player with the ball in his hands. He scored 9TD as a rookie including 2 kick return TD. He scored at least once in each of the last 5 games of the season after a slow start as a rookie. Crazy upside if Patterson puts things together and the Vikings do see improved QB play.

Here is a thread with more detailed discussion- http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=677555&page=16

Wright 417os 40% 43tg 26rec 16.7ypc 3TD

A small but fast WR who I think plays best from the slot. I could see him pushing Simpson for playing time, but expect Simpson to play more because of his blocking.

Running backs-

Peterson 39tg 29rec 5.9ypc (8.2carypc 2012 5.4ypc) 1TD highest targets 57 in 2009. Has had 50tg 3 times. YPC was above the league average of 7.7 4 out of 5 times before playing with Ponder the last 2 seasons where it has been 5.4 and 5.9 respectively.

Norv Turner intends to throw Adrian Peterson the ball. That is also a stated goal of Petersons. To become a more well rounded and complete Rb contributing in all phases of the game. Ever since Peterson came back from his injury, he has not really been willing to come off the field much since.

Toby Gerhart went to the Jaguars so incumbent back ups are Matt Asiata Zach Line Joe Banyard and 3rd round 2014 pick Jerick McKinnon


Tight End/Fullback-

Rudolph 8gm 424os (81.4%) 46tg (5.75tg/gm 92tg) 30rec (3.75rec/gm 60rec) 10.4ypc (9.7carypc) 3TD (.385TD/game) 93tg 2012 pro rated 2013 92tg 60rec 6TD

Rudolph is in a contract year. He has improved as a blocker but missed 8 games with an injury last season.

Carlson 13gm 497os 47.7% (58.9%) 48tg 32rec 10.8ypc 1TD

Carlson performed nearly as well as Rudolph after he was injured but was let go in the off season. Chase Ford played well enough that the Vikings saved a bit of cap space.

The Vikings let John Carlson go. Chase Ford got some experience last season and moves up to the 2nd TE. The Vikings signed AC Leonard who has good speed and worth paying attention to if he makes the roster. The Vikings carried 4 TE last season.

Ford 9gm 149os 14.3%(25%) 16tg 11rec 12.1ypc

Chase Ford stepped up from the practice squad last season after Rudolph was injured. He seems like a decent recieving option.

UDFA AC Leonard. a 4star recruit who got into trouble and then had to play for a small school. Very good numbers at the combine so a intriguing prospect due to Turners use of the TE if he makes the team.

Gerhart 196os 18.8%

Felton 13gm 301os 28.9% (35.6%)
Ellison 11gm 294os 28.2% (41.1%)
Line 3gm 68os 6.5% (34.8%)

I mostly went through pro rating the snaps to show how often the Vikings had multiple TE and FB on the field. Norv has some history of using a FB as well. In the passing game sometimes also. Zach Line is somewhat of a tweener FB/HB who the Vikings used at FB when Felton was out. He went back to the practice squad once Felton came back. If he makes the team he could see some small action in the passing game. As a side note I thought this was an example of Vikings mismanagement last season having Line take over for Felton at FB before having a season in their strength conditioning program. He looked overmatched as a lead blocker at that time, but it is possible he is ready now.

Peterson 674os 64.7% (14gm 48/gm 770 74%/gm)

Last 3 seasons of Norv Turner coached offense passing game stats. I went through these to evaluate the pass distribution to different positions/players in the offense.

Browns 2013 1078p(-49sk)1029plays 681pa 348ra 33.81%

WR1 Gordon 159 87rec 18.9ypc 8TD
TE Cameron 117tg 80rec 11.5ypc 7TD
WR2 Little 99tg 41rec 11.3ypc 2TD
SWR Bess 86tg 42rec 8.6ypc 2TD
FB Ogbonnaya 75tg 48rec 7.1ypc 2TD
RB Whittaker 36tg 21rec 7.4ypc 2TD
TE Barnridge 18tg 13rec 9.8ypc 2TD
WR Benjamin 13tg 5rec 21ypc
WR Josh Cooper 14tg 9rec 6.7ypc
RB Richardson 11tg 7rec 7.3ypc
RB McGahee 10tg 8rec 2.5ypc
RB Baker 9tg 8rec 7.1ypc
TE Gray 9tg 2rec 4ypc

WR1 159/681 .233 14gm 11.35tg/gm 181.7tg .267
TE1 117/681 .172 15gm 7.8tg/gm 124.8tg .183
WR2 99/681 .145
SWR 86/681 .126 14gm 6.1tg/gm 98.3tg .144
FB 75/681 .110
4RB 65/681 .095
TE2 .026

Chargers 2012 988play(-49sk) 939plays 528pa 411ra 43.76%

Floyd 84tg 56rec 14.5ypc 5TD
Alexander 62tg 37rec 17.8ypc 7TD
TE1 Gates 78tg 49rec 11ypc 7TD
RB Brown 61tg 49rec 7.6ypc 14tg/gm 4.35tg/gm 70tg
RB Mathews 57tg 39rec 6.5ypc 12gm 4.75tg/gm 76tg
SWR Royal 44tg 23rec 10.2ypc 2TD 10gm 4.4tg/gm 70.4tg
Meachem 32tg 14rec 14.8ypc 2TD
TE2 Rosario 18tg 10rec 9.5ypc 3TD
RB Battle 15tg 15rec 7.2ypc 1TD
RB Brinkley 15tg 12rec 6.4ypc
TE/FB McMichael 13tg 9rec 5.7ypc
FB McClain 10tg 8rec 3.6ypc
WR Spurlock 10tg 9rec 8.8ypc
TE3 Green 4tg 4rec 14ypc

WR1 .159 14gm 6tg/gm 96tg .182
WR2 .117 10gm 6.2tg/gm 99.2tg .182
TE1 .147 15gm 5.2tg/gm 83.2tg .158
RB 1 76/528 .144
RB 2 70/528 .133
SWR 70/528 .133
WR 4 32/528 .06
3/4 RB 30/528 .057
FB McMichael+McClain 21/528 .04
TE2 18/528 .034

Chargers 2011 1048p(-30sk) 1018plays 582pa 436ra(Qb26) 42.82%

WR1 Jackson 115tg 60rec 18.4ypc 9TD
WR2 Floyd 12gm 70tg (5.83tg/gm 93tg) 43rec (3.58rec/gm 57rec)19.9ypc 5TD

TE1 Gates 13gm 90tg (6.92tg/gm 111tg) 64rec (4.9rec/gm 79rec) 12.2ypc 7TD

RB1 Mathews 14gm 59tg (4.2tg/gm 67tg) 50rec (3.57rec/gm 57rec) 9.1ypc

FB Tolbert 15gm 79tg 54rec 8ypc 2TD
SWR Brown 14gm 41tg (2.93tg/gm 47tg) 19rec 17.3ypc 2TD
TE2 McMichael 43tg 30rec 9ypc
Rb/Fb Hester 16tg 12rec 4ypc 1TD
WR4 Crayton 14gm 34tg (2.43tg/gm 39tg) 23rec 10.8ypc 1TD
RB Brinkley 9tg 7rec 5.9ypc

WR1 115/582 .198
WR2 93/582 .160
TE1 111/582 .191
RB1 67/582 .115
FB Tolbert 79/582 .136 + Hester 95/582 .163
SWR 47/582 .081
TE2 43/582 .074
WR4 39/582 .067
3/4 RB 9/582 .015

To figure out the passing distribution I looked at the last 3 seasons under Norv Turner and calculated the percentage of targets to each position.

2013

WR1 159/681 .233 14gm 11.35tg/gm 181.7tg .267
TE1 117/681 .172 15gm 7.8tg/gm 124.8tg .183
WR2 99/681 .145
SWR 86/681 .126 14gm 6.1tg/gm 98.3tg .144
FB 75/681 .110
4RB 65/681 .095
TE2 .026
WR 4 .002

2012

WR1 .159 14gm 6tg/gm 96tg .182
WR2 .117 10gm 6.2tg/gm 99.2tg .182
TE1 .147 15gm 5.2tg/gm 83.2tg .158
RB 1 76/528 .144
RB 2 70/528 .133
SWR 70/528 .133
WR 4 32/528 .06
3/4 RB 30/528 .057
FB McMichael+McClain 21/528 .04
TE2 18/528 .034

2011

WR1 115/582 .198
WR2 93/582 .160
TE1 111/582 .191
RB1 67/582 .115
FB Tolbert 79/582 .136 + Hester 95/582 .163
SWR 47/582 .081
TE2 43/582 .074
WR4 39/582 .067
3/4 RB 9/582 .015

3yr average % of passing distribution Norv Turner

WR1 .216
TE1 .177
WR2 .162
RB1 .123
SWR .119
FB .104
TE2 .045
3/4RB .036
WR4 .034

This works out to 1.6% over 100% the error is due to rounding up and some pro rating for missed games. Close enough for me.

As you can see the pecking order is WR1 TE1 WR2 RB1 SWR FB TE2 3/4th RB WR4

I would like to go further than this and look at the distribution for Norv Turner is more seasons than the last 3 but I this works for now.

The targets for the WR2 were not as bad as I thought they might be. And some of the poor performance of the WR2 can be explained due to that player missing games (Alexander10/Floyd12) or just being bad (Little).

That being said it is also clear that either a FB and/or a 2nd RB will get a decent share of targets (10.4%) and more than the TE2. If I were to go back further in history there are many other examples of this for example Larry Centers, Daryl Johnson, Zach Crockett. So it is possible Felton/Line might see some targets in the passing game.



2014 projections- 1038(-43sk)995plays 563pa 432ra (QB32) 43.41%run If Bridgewater starts 9+ games 527pa 468ra 47%run


Passing-


Matt Cassel/Teddy Bridgewater 563pa 59% 332cmp 3164-3735-3917 / 527pa 59% 311cmp 2900-3267-3500yds

2814(Cassel career passing yards/gm) 3212(2013 Cassel passingyds/9gms) 3490ay/a 3751(caryds/cmp 11.3) 3917(2013yds/cmp 11.8)

If I applied the 18% increase from Norv Turner to Cassel's passing yards/gm from last season pro rated to 15 games 3212 this would be +578yds so 3790

If I backwards engineer all of the top yardage of all the receivers I get 4316 yards. Obviously I do not expect them all to hit those high marks or Cassel/Bridgewater to pass for that many yards. 3917 if Cassel/Bridgewater play well is likely the best I could really hope for.

If Cassel fails early on and is replaced by Bridgewater. This is where you might see the run/pass ratio go up in favor of the run as usually happens when a team starts a rookie QB. So in that case Bridgewater still might be effective with less passing attempts, but the yardage for receivers would likely be in the lower range of what I am projecting. So if you think Cassel plays himself out of the job early to mid season


Running-


Adrian Peterson 315-329-343ra 5ypc 1575-1645-1715yds 11-13-15TD 69tg 45-49-55rec 8.2ypc 380-406-451yds 1-2TD

Jerrick McKinnon 23-47-63ra 4.3ypc 99-202-271yds 1-3TD 50-60-70tg (.650cmp%) 32-39-45rec 7.7ypc 246-300-346yds 0-2TD

Asiata/Line 21-47ra 4.3ypc 90-202yds 0-1TD

Patterson 8-24ra 13.2ypc 106-211-317yds

I think it is possible that Patterson could average 1.5ra/game which would be 24ra as an upside for him and likely 8 being the low. Patterson did average 2 carries/game in the last 5 weeks of the season, scoring 3TD. Patterson had only 2 carries prior to that point of the season.



Receiving-


Jennings 100-120-140tg (.587cmp%) 59-71-82rec 14.9ypc 879-1058-1224yds 8TD

Rudolph 80-100-120tg (.612cmp%) 49-61-73rec 9.7ypc 475-592-712yds 5-7TD

Patterson 70-90-110tg (.577cmp%) 45-53-63rec 10.4ypc 468-551-655yds 5-7TD 8-24ra 13.2ypc 106-211-317yds 1-3TD (882cmbyds)

Peterson 65-70-75tg (.715cmp%) 47-50-53rec 8.2ypc 386-411-435yds 1-2TD

Simpson 50-60-70tg (.505cmp%) 25-30-35rec 13.8ypc 348-414-488yds 2-4TD

McKinnon 50-60-70tg (.650cmp%) 32-39-45rec 7.7ypc 246-300-346yds 0-2TD

Ford/Leonard 25tg (.6cmp%) 15rec 181yds 0-1TD

Felton/Line/Ellison 20tg (.7cmp%) 14rec 6.2ypc 87yds

Wright 10-20tg (.608cmp%) 6-12rec 15.5ypc 94-141-188yds 2-3TD

I think it is possible Wright beats out Jerome Simpson for the 3rd WR. However Jennings likes to play from the slot and Simpson has more size/is a better blocker in the running game, which will allow Jennings and Patterson to move to the slot more in 3WR so because of this I think Wright remains WR4.

 

[SanDawg]

Amazing breakdown above. Plenty to digest. Thanks.

 

[Biabreakable]

Here is a more clear summary of the 2 scenarios I am describing. One where Cassel plays well enough to keep the job late into the season. The other where Bridgewater plays earlier on in the season causing the Vikings to run the ball more. Here is how the projections break down in both scenarios-

527pa 468ra Bridgeater plays more and the Vikings run 47%

468ra -(QB32+WR15=47) 421RBra

Cassel/Bridgewater 219.13pyd/gm 1.75TD/gm 2ra/gm

Jennings 95-115-130tg (.587cmp%) 56-68-76rec 14.9ypc 831-1006-1137yds 6-8TD

Rudolph 80-90-100tg (.612cmp%) 49-55-61rec 9.7ypc 475-533-591yds 5-7TD

Patterson 70-85-100tg (.577cmp%) 45-49-58rec 10.4ypc 468-510-603yds 5-7TD 8-24ra 13.2ypc 106-211-317yds 1-3TD (574-731-920cmbyds 6-10TD)

Peterson 321-332-343ra 5ypc 1605-1660-1715yds 11-13-15TD 60-65-70tg (.715cmp%) 43-46-50rec 8.2ypc 352-381-411yds 1-2TD (1957-2041-2126 cmbyds)

Simpson 50-60-65tg (.505cmp%) 25-30-33rec 13.8ypc 348-414-453yds 2-4TD

McKinnon 47-63-94ra 4.3ypc 202-271-404yds 1-3TD 45-55-60tg (.650cmp%) 29-36-39rec 7.7ypc 225-275-300yds 0-2TD

Ford/Leonard 25tg (.6cmp%) 15rec 181yds 0-1TD

Felton/Line/Ellison 21-34-47ra 4.3ypc 90-146-202yds 0-1TD 20tg (.7cmp%) 14rec 6.2ypc 87yds

Wright 10-20tg (.608cmp%) 6-12rec 15.5ypc 94-141-188yds 2-3TD


This works out to 3061-3506-3951 passing yards 21-28-35TD 2003-2228-2638 rushing yards





563pa 432ra Cassel plays most of the season and the Vikings run 43.41%

Cassel/Bridgewater 233.75pyd/gm 1.75TD/gm 2ra/gm

Jennings 100-120-140tg (.587cmp%) 59-71-82rec 14.9ypc 879-1058-1224yds 6-8TD

Rudolph 80-100-120tg (.612cmp%) 49-61-73rec 9.7ypc 475-592-712yds 5-7TD

Patterson 70-90-110tg (.577cmp%) 45-53-63rec 10.4ypc 468-551-655yds 5-7TD 8-24ra 13.2ypc 106-211-317yds 1-3TD (574-762-972cmbyds 6-10TD)

Peterson 306-318-329ra 5ypc 1530-1590-1645yds 11-13-15TD 65-70-75tg (.715cmp%) 47-50-53rec 8.2ypc 386-411-435yds 1-2TD (1916-2001-2080cmbyds 12-17TD)

Simpson 50-60-70tg (.505cmp%) 25-30-35rec 13.8ypc 348-414-488yds 2-4TD

McKinnon 23-47-63ra 4.3ypc 99-202-271yds 1-3TD 50-60-70tg (.650cmp%) 32-39-45rec 7.7ypc 246-300-346yds 0-2TD

Ford/Leonard 25tg (.6cmp%) 15rec 181yds 0-1TD

Felton/Line/Ellison 21-34-47ra 4.3ypc 90-146-202yds 0-1TD 20tg (.7cmp%) 14rec 6.2ypc 87yds

Wright 10-20tg (.608cmp%) 6-12rec 15.5ypc 94-141-188yds 2-3TD


This works out to 3164-3740-4316 passing yards (233.75ptd/gm)1825-2149-2435 rushing yards


Vikings had 2634 rushing yds in 2012 2081 in 2013 2318 in 2011 this averages out to 2344/season

Passing yards were below 3k in 2011 and 2012. Team passing yards were 3427 2013 My median passing yardage projections of 3506 or 3740 would be a 2-9% increse of passing yardage from 2013 considering that Norv Turner has improved offenses by 18% in terms of fantasy points. An increase in passing yardage of half that does not seem too optimistic I hope. Although the thought of either Bridgewater or Cassel throwing for 3500-3700 yards seems exciting compared to what I have gotten used to from Musgrave/Ponder.

I definitely think both Patterson and Rudolph could improve on their yards/reception numbers. I had them at 13 and 12 ypc earlier on but brought that back down to what their career numbers are so far when I saw the passing yardage was so high.

Here are some of Norv Turners comments about the offense I found interesting and I was referring to in the previous post-

Norv Turner-

"The QBs have to understand. They can't wait to see a guy get open. They have to anticipate and they have to throw it early. But I think those are things we are making good strides with right now.

On Bridgewater-

The number one thing I look for. The guy obviously has outstanding ability. You don't do all the things he did at Louiville if you dont. But I think you want to find out how coachable a guy is. How well he can make adjustments. In this case there are certain things I thought could help him, we wanted to see if they really could help him? Then the adjustements and things we did with his footwork and balance, I think it solved a couple issues people were worried about. He is a young guy. He is going to get stronger and develop. He has been impressive in this first week we have had him here.

How a guy thinks, how he sees things. How you visualize and anticipate. The way you see things is a big part of playing QB. Guys who have tunnel vision or who see things how I call it black and white, they struggle compared to guys with great periphrial vision. And also conceptualize things. Sometimes you have to throw a ball to a spot, that you think its crazy to throw it there, but that is where the receiver is going to end up. You got to trust everything. Some guys get a feel for that and some guys dont throw it till they see the whites of their eyes. And that is way too late.

When asked about when/if Bridewater will start?

The good news I don't need to answer questions like that anymore.

We're going to get these guys ready to play. Matt is a veteran player who already has a good grasp of what we are doing offensively and has been impressive in the workouts. Ponder has won 10 games and hes been impressive. I think he is improving a lot. I think he really likes our system. He is a type of QB we've been around who has had success in our system. So we have a very good QB situation.

You know. We are going to get Teddy ready to play. We are going to get him ready to play and we are going to have great competition through training camp.

On Peterson -

I can't say enough about Adrian. We can help him, get him in space a little bit with some of the passing game. Obviously that is not our goal or our big objective to make him a big time receiver, but in our system he gonna catch balls. Check downs in some space. We've been a good screen team, we want to get him in space on screens with people in front of him. But you know? We want to give the ball to Adrian!! We want to see him run with the ball like he has been doing the past 8 years, I really think he is going to be a guy that when the season is in the month of decemeber that people are going to be talking about him in the MVP conversations. Because I think he is committed to having that kind of year. I think this system, the guys who benefit the most from this system when you talk about guys who have had great production with me, are obviously the WR and the RBs. We have had great success with RB both running the ball and catching the ball.

On Peterson on 3rd downs and pass protection-

Theres ways. We have had backs who are very productive on 3rd down. Darrin Sproles was an undersized guy who you don't want blocking a 270lb LB. One of the things I think we will do differently is that we will not ask the backs those bigger players. I have heard people say Adrian is not a good pass protector? He is an outstanding pass protector when it is the right kind of match up. We are not looking to have him block DE or OLB because those are bad match ups for any back.

On Patterson-

Well I have been lucky to coach some really good guys at that position. He looks like some of the best I've been around. Im really excited about the way he is working. We have been going now for over a month. He has not missed a down, not missed a day, hes running, hes in great shape and he has really taken to the way we run routes. To me thats one of the reason I really like coaching. Is to be part of a young players development. To watch a young player grow and have success. Cordaralle is one of those guys who can be as good as he wants to be. He has that mindset. Im going to get ready and have a great year.

On route running from Patterson-

He can be a great route runner. What has happened. Because there is so much attention on these young guys. We went through it with Gordon last season. Scott was coaching WR at the time. People were very critical of him. He ends up leading the league in receiving. He got better. I think he got better all the way through the season in terms of route running, effort, understanding what were asking. Thats the case with young players. You get a guy like Cordarralle you see all that ability and everyone wants it to happen now. Well there is a developmental stage and a process you go through with young players. They never played at this level. They never practiced at this level. Every day is 100% competition. To me its a process you go through. I dont like it when people are critical and negative about them, because we're getting them through that process. I guess I am like the fans, Id love it to be day one they are a finished product. But thats not the way it works. I was with the Rams in 86 or 85, it was Jerry Rices rookie year. We played them. He dropped about 3 balls in the game. The writer says he could be a really good player if he would learn how to catch. Well its a process and Jerry was going through it. Some times you see these young guys and ask is he ever going to get it? Well hes been going at it for 2 months. Lets give him a little time. I mean we are not being paitient with him. We are pushing him. But we understand its a process."

Here is an article discussing how Norv Turner wanted to work with Cassel when he was the OC in Cleveland-

Vikings: Matt Cassel, Norv Turner nearly joined forces in ClevelandBy Chris Tomasson http://www.twincitie...y-joined-forces

Who knows? Perhaps if quarterback Matt Cassel had signed with Cleveland last year and played well, Johnny Football might be somewhere else.

"You never know in this league,'' Cassel said with a laugh.

After Cassel was released by Kansas City in March 2013, then-Cleveland offensive coordinator Norv Turner wanted the Browns to sign him. But Cleveland brass elected instead to go with a cheaper option to compete with starter Brandon Weeden and eventually signed Jason Campbell to a one-year, $1.5 million deal.

Cassel signed a two-year, $7.4 million contract with the Vikings and eventually became their starter. The Browns had a rough season at quarterback and last month drafted Johnny Manziel in hopes of curing their woes.

Cassel opted out of his contract after last season before re-signing in March on a two-year, $10 million deal. One reason he returned was to work under Turner, who became Minnesota's offensive coordinator the year after being unsuccessful in getting Cassel to Cleveland.

"I think that would have been at the time a good move for us,'' Turner said. "I gave my evaluation (for the Browns to sign Cassel). I thought he would have fit. ... Sometimes it works out, and sometimes it doesn't.''

Cassel knew about Turner having interest in him, but it soon became apparent Cleveland officials wanted to go a cheaper route.

"I just remember that there were conversations about the Browns being a possible landing spot for me,'' Cassel said. "Obviously, I've got a tremendous amount of respect for Coach Turner.''

Cassel was flattered Turner had so much interest in him last year. Now, he has the best of both situations, having a lucrative contract and getting to play under Turner.

"I was excited when I heard that he was coming (to Minnesota),'' Cassel said. "I was so excited about it, and now to be out here working with him, it's really been a great experience.''

Turner has liked Cassel's game for a number of years. From 2009-12, when Cassel played for the Chiefs and Turner was San Diego's head coach, the quarterback played seven games against the Chargers.

"I was very familiar with him,'' Turner said.

Now, Turner finally is working with Cassel. The 10-year veteran is learning Turner's up-tempo scheme that involves a complex numbers system for play calls.

Turner, who has 15 years of experience as an NFL head coach and earned two Super Bowl rings in the 1990s as Dallas' offensive coordinator, is the eighth coordinator Cassel has had in seven seasons. Cassel is hopeful he finally can get some stability in a situation where there is mutual respect.

"In 31 years in the NFL, (Turner has) coached Super Bowls, he's coached Pro Bowlers, he's coached everything he could possibly do,'' Cassel said. "And this system has been proven to work. With his reputation, he's lived up to all my expectations and I think that we're all very lucky to have him here.''

 

[koreansteve]

Minnesota's offense should be more interesting in 2014 thanks to Norv Turner's arrival and the drafting of Teddy Bridgewater. Turner managed to keep at least a couple of CLE players fantasy-relevant last year, despite QB woes. As Bia provided above, Turner breathes life into offenses from a fantasy perspective.

Bridgewater/Cassel:

Seems like many fans will want to see Bridgewater sooner rather than later. However, I think Cassel is very capable of running this offense at least at an "adequate" level. Cassel posted a 60.2% completion rate, 7.1 yds/attempt, 11 TDs, 9 INTs in 7 full games and 2 very partial games last year. Those stats aren't fantastic, but they aren't horrible either (higher completion % than Stafford). At this point, I'm not sure who will start the season and how soon Bridgewater is likely to take over. Neither Cassel or Bridgewater are fantasy relevant at this point, but it is important to get some feel for the number of completions, yards, and TDs available in this offense. MIN has 546 pass attempts last year. Norv Turner attempted 681 pass attempts in CLE last year with Jason Campbell, Weeden, and Hoyer.

530 attempts / 7.0 yds per attempt / 3710 yds / 20 TDs / 20 INTs

Adrian Peterson:

He turned 29 this year, but still looks like superman. I distinctly remember watching him carry a defender for 8 yards on a 4th quarter TD run. As Bia said, all 5 lineman return and they have worked together for the past 2 years. He averaged 4.5 yds/carry in 2013 and you can't help but think that he'll do as well (if not better) under Norv Turner. Peterson is the focal point of the offense...but I think that Jennings/Patterson/Rudolph have a real chance to help carry some of the pressure this year. It's hard to bet against him and until he shows signs of slowing down, it seems that 290-300 carries, around 1300 yds, 10-12 TDs is the average estimate. For the past 7 years, he's proven this to be his floor, even when he misses some games. He provides consistency and a very high floor...while perhaps not providing the incredibly high ceiling that Charles and McCoy could be possible of.

Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson:

As Bia pointed out, Jennings posted 58-491-4 (8.47 yds/reception) with Cassel in 2013 vs 48-313-0 (6.52 yds/reception) with Ponder. I think Jennings and Patterson had a pretty predictable split in terms of catches for a proven veteran and a rookie WR. Jennings finished with 68-804-4 while Patterson finished with 45-469-4. Carlson accounted for 32 receptions and he is now in Arizona. I also think that Simpson's total of 48 receptions will see a decline in 2014.

After analyzing Jennings numbers, I see why he is being drafted as WR59 at FFC. He had 3 games of 13, 21, and 23 points in non-PPR leagues last year. Otherwise, he was mostly useless for his fantasy owners. Improved QB play should help this year, but if Bridgewater starts there could be fewer passes to go around and the emergence of Patterson should further hurt any ceiling Jennings has.

Patterson, on the other hand, is very interesting. His receptions stats were not mind-boggling but he did ok considering his QB play. He had 45 receptions last year and I think it's reasonable to expect 60-65 receptions this year. Hopefully Bridgewater's accuracy and Patterson's quickness provide lots of short-medium passes with room to run after the catch. Another interesting point is that through the first 11 games, Patterson totaled 2 rushing attempts for 2 yds. In the last 5 games (with Cassel starting), Patterson totaled 10 rushes for 156 yards and 3 TDs. I have no idea how Norv plans on using him this year, but it certainly seems worthwhile to give him 1-2 rushes per game.

Lastly, for those of us in leagues that give points for returners, Patterson had 43 returns for 1393 yds and 2 TDs. Those are big points depending on league rules. I have no idea if he will be MIN's main kickoff returner this year, but if he is, his draft stock skyrockets in return yard leagues.

Kyle Rudolph:

Norv Turner. Tight Ends. And everyone goes crazy. Gates in SD, Cameron in CLE last year. But, I'm not convinced. Gates and Cameron are physical anomalies with ridiculous athletic abilities. I don't view Rudolph in that same light. He's decent, but I don't think even Norv can turn him suddenly into a top 8 TE.

Cassel/Bridgewater: 318 completions, 530 attempts, 7.0 yds/attempt, 3710 yds, 20 TDs, 20 INTs. 50 rushes, 100 yds, 1 TD

Peterson: 295 rushes, 4.5 yds/carry, 1328 yds, 11 TDs. 30 receptions, 180 yds, 1 TD

Jennings: 70 receptions, 805 yds, 5 TDs

Patterson: 65 receptions, 813 yds, 6 TDs. 15 rushes, 120 yds, 1 TD. (plus potential return yards)

Rudolph: 60 receptions, 618 yds, 6 TDs

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Since Brett Favre finally hung up his spikes…the Vikings offense has essentially consisted of one player. And while the Vikings had Favre technically for two seasons, he gave them one dream one. But since 2006, here’s the list of players who have led MIN in passing:

2006: Brad Johnson
2007: Tarvaris Jackson
2008: Gus Frerotte
2009: Favre
2010: Favre
2011: Christian Ponder
2012: Ponder
2013: Matt Cassel

We all know that when you have instability at the QB position, it’s real difficult to have success in the NFL. And as it relates to FF, when you have no QB…it’s real tough to find much value in passing game weapons. Perhaps a team can produce one worthwhile target. But more often than not, weapons that otherwise would have a shot at being decent FF contributors, wind up being quite middling.

2014 isn’t exactly changing the game for the Vikings either. They’ll enter this season with their leading passer from 2013 in the QB1 role; Matt Cassel. They also drafted Teddy Bridgewater with the last pick of Round 1. The FF question that remains for the Vikings though is quite similar to the ones that have been present for this franchise for many years. Can they produce a useful FF player other than Adrian Peterson?

Matt Cassel/Teddy Bridgewater – My two cents on who should start? Well, if he shows well in the pre-season it should be Bridgewater. Unless Cassel goes all Kurt Warner on the NFL in pre-season, I think he’s best used as a safety net. Listen, the Vikings did this three years ago…they tried to cushion Ponder’s entry into the NFL and I think when you do that, you prevent that player from establishing himself in more ways than just completing passes and even running an entire offense. Now perhaps Ponder was withheld from the starting line-up because he stunk…and that’s fair. But what we seem to see in situations where a team says they’re going to bring a young QB along slowly…is that once the bullets start flying and they experience a bad losing streak or a bad loss with the stop gap QB performing poorly, the rookie gets thrown into a ‘rescue’ type situation. Remember, this is a guy who has competed and competed with his success his entire life. But if the team didn’t think he was ready to take the reins from the outset, then there is a lot of different messages being sent, both to the young QB and the team.

At the end of the day, neither of these QB’s will be drafted in re-draft leagues. Might they be picked up…who knows. Dynasty…? Bridgewater is certainly going to get a chance. And I don’t want to sound like a guy who kicks a guy while he was down. Full disclosure…I didn’t watch a heck of a lot of Bridgewater when he was in college. But at the same time, he always felt uninspiring to me as a potential top pick. Seems like a good kid…good head on his shoulders. But his size/talent seems very questionable. So I’m in a wait and see mode with him. And if he hits…kudos to the other guy who stuck his neck out for him.

Adrian Peterson – There’s no question that since he was drafted in 2007, the Peterson has been the best RB in the NFL. It’s really not even that close. And when you think of HOF ceremonies 10-15 years from now, you wonder if RB’s will be almost an extinct breed because the nature of the game has changed so much as to split much of the workload between multiple players and roles. Peterson is a no doubt about it HOFer. But I’ll not be drafting him this year. I’d go so far as to say that if I had the 6th pick in the draft, and he were available, I’d pass.

We talk about age as it relates to an RB…but I’m also a big believer in workload being a contributing factor to an RB’s lifecycle. Peterson has accumulated 2239 career touches. During his career, Peterson has blended a unique combination of speed and power. Most RB’s have one or the other…Peterson has both. But that power has also made him one of the most physical runners in the NFL and his level of physicality is rare. I have to think it will have some effect on his ability to hold up over an entire season. We saw that a bit last year…his groin injury bit him right after he had his best (and heaviest workload) game of the year.

If you consider that his final two games played of 2013, he played but 42 total snaps, from a workload standpoint, let’s consider that one game…Peterson would have come out to a 16 game pro-rated number of 379 touches. That’s huge and it was the product of a desperate coaching staff riding the one horse they had. And that was with a back-up the caliber of Toby Gearhart on the bench. Now, the primary back-up is Jerrick McKinnon? So I have doubts about MIN’s ability to moderate/manage Peterson’s workload. Will it manifest itself in the form of Peterson being useless during the FF playoffs? Or being less than 100% during the course of the season? I don’t know…but I don’t feel good about Peterson’s 16 game prospects this year. And with the land mines scattered randomly at the top tier of RB position, I feel like Peterson is a red flag screaming out at me. Consider Marshawn Lynch…some may have the same concerns with him, but if you draft Lynch, you can overdraft Christine Michael to protect yourself if need be. Peterson doesn’t have that insurance. I still love the player…he’s still one of the best. But his risk factor for me is now too high to invest in Round 1. And if I have the #7-12 pick, I don’t have to worry about not picking him. He’ll be off the board.

Cordarrelle Patterson – This is the 2014 FF wild-card isn’t he? We saw just enough of his on-field ability to salivate over the prospect of him being on the field for 80% of MIN’s offensive snaps (PFF has him @ 42% in 2013). We saw Josh Gordon tear the NFL apart with Jason Campbell throwing him the football. So why couldn’t Patterson do the same in 2014 with whomever the Vikes trot out there? Right now, he is going WR22, behind Roddy White but ahead of T.Y. Hilton and Michael Floyd. Between the two of them, Floyd/Hilton averaged a 73/1062/5 line. They are WR’s entering their 3rd seasons with QB’s (Palmer & Luck) that I have more faith in than I do the QB’s in MIN. From a natural talent perspective, is Patterson the best of the three? Perhaps. But Floyd/Hilton are pretty damn good talents in their own right…I doubt their ceilings are what they showed last season. Now can Patterson be used in the run game? Sure…I sense the Vikings almost see him as the RB2 on their team. And if that’s the case, well, then there might be some hidden value here. But May/June is the time for coaches to experiment with formations and player usage and a host of other types of activities centered around testing the limits of what’s possible in their offensive schemes. But when push comes to shove, is Norv Turner going to truly use Patterson in this multi-dimensional way that while Patterson may have the athletic chops for, does he have the grasp of the playbook and finer point of knowing this unique position down which would open up a new consistent production stream for his stat line? For all his natural talent, he largely caught the ball around the LOS last season. So I’m not as bullish on his prospect of ending up on my team if he winds up carrying a Round 5 grade. He feels to me more like a 7th rounder.

Greg Jennings – IMO, if there is a value play on the MIN offense to be had, it’s Jennings. Consider that at the moment he’s going WR58. Behind players like:

James Jones
Marvin Jones
Aaron Dobson

I get that Jennings doesn’t have the upside that he possessed back in his GB days when Rodgers was finding him in fantastic YAC situations. But this is a guy who posted a very good 64% catch rate with less than stellar producers at QB. And while he’s not posting the types of YPR figures he posted with Rodgers/Favre in GB, he’s the type of player who at this stage of his career knows how to run routes, get open, and make himself available to his QB. Also consider this. Matt Cassel played 7 games, start-to-finish in 2013. In those games, Jennings went for 40/491/4 (with a 69% catch rate). Pro-rated over 16 games…that works out to 91/1122/9. I know Cassel may not be the QB here ultimately, but I think it goes to show that Ponder was simply garbage and that when you got a QB that produced some level of competency, Jennings was VERY good. With the Cassel/Bridgewater combination, I think MIN will see better QB play for 16 games. I’d feel fine drafting Jennings in Round 8 but you should be able to wait longer than that.

Kyle Rudolph – Rudolph is a run of the mill TE who flashed some unique red zone effectiveness traits in 2012. And no doubt, the musical chairs at QB has probably hindered his development as a true downfield option. He was not afforded the benefit of playing much with Matt Cassel at the end of the season when Cassel played capably (Rudolph had broken his foot). But I think there are going to be limitations on the MIN passing game even if it does exceed expectations with regard to how many players can be solid FF producers. Rudolph has but a career 9.7 YPR so his value to this point in his career has been TD based. And in 2012 when he put up 9, it resembled the type of production Gronkowski put up his rookie year. But that’s where the similarities ended and I think Rudolph’s role despite that fact that Norv Turner has made good use of his TE’s in previous lives, is still going to be situational.

As for the rest of the WR’s in MIN (Simpson/Wright), I don’t think they’ll emerge to make a sizable consistent FF impact…even real life impact save for a game here or there. We know at this point what Jerome Simpson is…Jairus Wright is entering his 3rd season…can he be an effective slot guy? Maybe…but this is still a run based attack and once you get behind the 3rd/4th targets on this type of offense, it’s Vulture City.

Predictions

Bridgewater – 245 Completions, 430 Attempts, 2868 Passing Yards, 15 TD’s 13 INT’s. 23 Rushes 68 Rushing Yards.
Cassel – 64 Completions, 106 Attempts, 724 Passing Yards, 5 TD’s 2 INT’s. 9 Rushes 34 Rushing Yards
Peterson – 254 Rushing Attempts, 1104 Rushing Yards, 9 TD’s 29 Receptions 220 Receiving Yards.
Asiata – 43 Rushes 162 Rushing Yards, 2 TD’s.
McKinnon – 47 Rushes 193 Rushing Yards, 21 Receptions, 213 Receiving Yards 1 TD.
Jennings – 74 Receptions 942 Receiving Yards 8 TD’s.
Patterson – 56 Receptions 881 Receiving Yards 3 TD’s; 34 Rushes 214 Rushing Yards 2 TD’s.
Rudolph – 63 Receptions, 654 Receiving Yards, 6 TD’s.

 

[jurb26]

The Minn offense is one I think could be in line for a drastic turnaround this year. There is a lot to be optimistic about with Turner and Bridgewater coming to town and hopefully, for Minn fans, leading the winds of change for the past few years.

Cassel/Bridgewater

Sitting down to do projections for a team like Minn is a cumbersome task. Thanks Bia for saving the rest of us hours of deciphering on how this QB thing could play out. Perhaps I should be cursing you for adding hours of reading, though. I'm not sure just yet . One thing I'm comfortable saying this year is that I believe no matter what, Minn will have improved QB play. If they choose to stick with Cassel primarily this year I see that as an upgrade. If they choose to put Bridgewater in right away I see that as an improvement as well. Basically, I'm saying anything is an improvement from Ponder. I don't think I'll get much debate in that.

The question is how much improvement can we expect? To that I say, a good bit. Turner has a solid group of players to build his offense around. Primarily the guy who is arguably the best RB in football, Peterson. I think Turner will rely heavily on Peterson this year and cushion the play of his QBs. I'd expect a better run/pass ratio this year vs. last, roughly 46% vs. 43.5% last year. On top of that, Minn has a great emerging talent at WR in Patterson and a promising TE who missed half the season last year in Rudolph.

Peterson

Peterson is one of a handful of players who has a legitimate claim to being the top player in fantasy this year. There is little debate as to who the best pure runner in the NFL is and that guy is in fact Peterson. Perhaps the only thing holding him back from the likes of Charles and McCoy is his lack of usage in the passing game. While I don't think Peterson will ever match those guys in that regard, I'm not sure he really has to. With better efficiency on offense Minn can sustain drives and give Peterson more opportunity to run and score. I think they will. I also think they will utilize him slightly more in the passing game as that has been a habit of Turner. Peterson is capable, just underused.

Patterson

There have been numerous reports of Patterson dominating this offseason and being a guy who will see a massive increase of touches this year. Reports as recent as today have sited that Patterson will be the focal point of the Minn passing game and that he will indeed play the role of WR1 in Turner's offense. This perhaps isn't very surprising if you watched Patterson explode during the back half of last season. Still, it can't be stressed enough how much that WR1 position could mean to his fantasy potential this year. Turner has a great track record of getting his WR1s to produce. Patterson has the talent to function in that role, but is he ready?

The down side to Patterson is we really don't know if he's ready for such a meteoric jump in responsibility. Just a year ago he was a guy who fell in the draft because of how raw he was. Despite his strong fantasy performance the back half of last year he really didn't have great production as a WR and his rushing totals really provided the injection needed on a weekly basis. Part of that problem was exactly what we knew it would be going in. He just doesn't have the refinement of top NFL WRs just yet. Most of his targets were short passes, often times at or behind the LOS. Minn seemed content to just get the ball in his hands.... What in the world took so long? That's not a bad thing given his undeniable ability with the ball in his hands. How far could he have really come in just a years time? Well, I think pretty far. I don't believe Minn or Turner would rush him into the role if they didn't think he could handle it. On top of that, I saw pretty solid growth from Patterson last year from when he was in college. For Patterson to reach his potential this year he needs to master the route tree, particularly routes deeper down the field. He's a pretty big gamble right now and the buying price is high. I'm optimistic none the less.

Jennings

Jennings seems to be a bit of the odd man out in Minn this year. I think Turner will focus his offense around Petterson, Patterson and Rudolph. Although Jennings is a solid WR, he just isn't WR1 material IMO. I believe his play in GB was elevated by Rogers and the rest of that dynamic supporting cast. Regardless, hes a great WR2 for any NFL team.

Rudolph

Rudolph has quietly put up solid numbers his last 2 years despite a less than ideal situation. He was on pass for 60 receptions, over 600 yds and 6 TDs before injury ended his season in 2013. I think he builds on that momentum this year as 1 of the 3 main cogs in Turners offense.

Projections

Cassel/Bridgewater

340 completions, 548 attempts, 4002 yds, 22 TDs, 18 Ints

50 carries, 230 yds, 1 TD

Peterson

300 carries, 1395 yds, 11 TDs

50 targets, 36 receptions, 224 yds, 1 TD

Patterson

126 targets, 80 receptions, 1040 yds, 7 TDs

22 carries, 230 yds, 2 TDs

Jennings

82 targets, 63 receptions, 756 yds, 3 TDs

Rudolph

90 targets, 62 receptions, 689 yds, 5 TDs

 

[Biabreakable]

Sorry for my redundancy and circular logic jurb.

I hope there was at least something useful about that thinking aloud. If nothing else the data may help some folks from digging.

I will be more than happy if people are right about Patterson! I wish I had the same confidence in him making a huge leap in progress. I could definitely see him scoring double digit TD. I just don't think his receptions will be over 70. That might not mean much in standard leagues but it does in PPR.

 

[Biabreakable]

Here is a post I made regarding Peterson's receiving prospects for 2014 in another thread-

The Vikings have not really used Peterson on screen passes his entire career, instead opting to have Gerhart or Chester Taylor get almost all of those types of plays. Norv has said they will use Peterson in this way and recent OTA report I read talked about Peterson being used on screens in practice.

It is difficult to explain why the Vikings have not used Peterson on screens before. One theory I have was that Peterson is such a focal point of the defense that there isn't enough misdirection for the screen to be effective, because the defense is so fully committed to stopping him. So when they would bring in Gerhart or Taylor to run the screen,. the defense may not have focused as much on stopping them, and the play would be more successful. That is how it has played out for the most part during his career thus far.

But Peterson was well above average in his yards/reception pre Ponder/Musgrave.

2007 14gm 28tg 19rec 268yds 14.1ypc
2008 16gm 39tg 21rec 125yds 6ypc
2009 16gm 57tg 43rec 436yds 10.1ypc
2010 15gm 50tg 36rec 341yds 9.5ypc
2011 12gm 23tg 18rec 139yds 7.7ypc
2012 16gm 51tg 40rec 217yds 5.4ypc
2013 14gm 39tg 29rec 171yds 5.9ypc

2.796 targets/game career
A team should run screen passes 2 or more times a game. If you are Scott Linehan that might be more like 6 to 10 times a game. But all teams should run them at least a couple times/game to keep the defense honest.

In recent interview Peterson mentioned the name Mashall Faulk when replying to a question about what he expects Turners use of him in the passing game. He has stated this is a goal of his, even last season it was his goal to become more involved in the passing game than he has been in the past.

If Jerick McKinnon or another RB still ends up getting most of the screen passes, then I would put to rest the idea that previous coaches have misused Peterson in the passing game. I have no argument that Gerhart and Taylor were very good in this role. They may have been better than Peterson in this area at that time and the coaches wanted to have a built in way to rest Peterson, so this is how they did it. However if Peterson is the main RB on screens and other RB passes this season, then we will be able to more fairly judge his abilities in this aspect of his game.

Petetrson has proven to be very effective as a receiver before with Favre in 2009 and to a lesser extent 2010. So this is kind of where my theory about Ponder/Musgrave came from.

In my projections I have Peterson getting 60-75 targets in the passing game. Which may be too high. He has only averaged 45 targets/season thus far in his career.

However there is no Gerhart or Taylor to take targets from him now. Like I said, they have not really used Peterson on screens much at all and Norv is going to use him on those plays. So that is why I have him getting about 4 targets/game instead of 3.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

The biggest addition is, of course, the subtraction of Bill Musgrave. The guy hasn't succeeded anywhere. Okay MAYBE with Schaub in Virginia.

Oakland Raiders (1997) - (Quarterbacks coach)

Philadelphia Eagles (1998) - (Offensive assistant/offensive coordinator)

Carolina Panthers (1999) - (Quarterbacks coach)

Carolina Panthers (2000) - (Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach)

University of Virginia (2001–2002) - (Off. coord./quarterbacks/tight ends coach)

Jacksonville Jaguars (2003) - (Offensive coordinator)

Jacksonville Jaguars (2004) - (Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks Coach)

Washington Redskins (2005) - (Quarterbacks coach)

Atlanta Falcons (2006–2009) - (Quarterbacks coach)

Atlanta Falcons (2010) - (Assistant head coach/quarterbacks coach)

Minnesota Vikings (2011-2013) - (Offensive coordinator)

Philadelphia Eagles (2014-present)
(Quarterbacks coach)

 

[Khy]

The biggest addition is, of course, the subtraction of Bill Musgrave. The guy hasn't succeeded anywhere. Okay MAYBE with Schaub in Virginia.

Oakland Raiders (1997) - (Quarterbacks coach)

Philadelphia Eagles (1998) - (Offensive assistant/offensive coordinator)

Carolina Panthers (1999) - (Quarterbacks coach)

Carolina Panthers (2000) - (Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach)

University of Virginia (2001–2002) - (Off. coord./quarterbacks/tight ends coach)

Jacksonville Jaguars (2003) - (Offensive coordinator)

Jacksonville Jaguars (2004) - (Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks Coach)

Washington Redskins (2005) - (Quarterbacks coach)

Atlanta Falcons (2006–2009) - (Quarterbacks coach)

Atlanta Falcons (2010) - (Assistant head coach/quarterbacks coach)

Minnesota Vikings (2011-2013) - (Offensive coordinator)

Philadelphia Eagles (2014-present)
(Quarterbacks coach)

He's one of those guys like Brian Shotty that make me think... "How does this guy keep getting hired to do things?". He's one of those coaches that are so bad I almost want to avoid players they're 'helping'. I didn't even know he was Foles new QB coach, I didn't like Foles at his ADP coming into the season, this seals the deal for me though.

 

[FF Ninja]

Sorry for my redundancy and circular logic jurb.

I hope there was at least something useful about that thinking aloud. If nothing else the data may help some folks from digging.

I will be more than happy if people are right about Patterson! I wish I had the same confidence in him making a huge leap in progress. I could definitely see him scoring double digit TD. I just don't think his receptions will be over 70. That might not mean much in standard leagues but it does in PPR.

Agreed. I think Jennings is going to be an insane value this year while Patterson gets all the hype. Jennings is a great WR3 target for anyone who does the opposite of the upside down draft... a right side up draft? Patterson might pan out one day, but it's not like he's playing the Cobb role with Rodgers throwing him the ball. Norv did ok with Gordon and Vincent Jackson, but I'm not confident Patterson is a great fit for him.

I'd also like to add some speculation to the Norv effect. I think it speaks volumes that McCoy was able to step in and immediately turn around Norv's mess with pretty much all the same pieces as Norv had. I feel like Norv's offense has gotten stale. I'd be fearful that this team could turn into a worse version of the 2012 Chargers if that is possible. I don't really want any piece of it other than Jennings due to his bargain basement price.

 

[Biabreakable]

Training Camp Position Preview: Fullback Daniel House explains why the fullback position is less important in Norv Turner's offensive scheme and he tells you how that will impact offensive roster cuts. [SIZE=xx-small]Updated: June 26th, 2014 11:55am[/SIZE]

http://www.vikingcorner.blogspot.com/2014/06/training-camp-position-preview-fullbacks.html
By: Daniel House

Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner has placed a strong emphasis on multiple-tight-end sets during every stop he has made in the league. With Turner's emphasis on multiple-tight-end sets and his use of three or more wide receivers, the fullback position could have a tough time landing in the offensive scheme. To put this into context, Norv Turner's offense in Cleveland last year had three wide receiver sets on the field for 559 snaps, which was 112 more than the Vikings registered last season. Cleveland had two running backs on the field for just 53 snaps last year (9th fewest in the league) and ran on just 23 of those plays.The tight end will be a prominent fixture in the Vikings offense, making the roster moves at the fullback position more difficult. The intent is to involve Adrian Peterson in the passing game more, meaning a run blocking full back like Jerome Felton will have to become more diverse, or risk being eliminated from the offensive plans. Rhett Ellison was primarily a fullback in the previous regime, but now he is listed a tight end and will play a bigger role in that avenue. He has the experience to do what Felton does, along with the skill-set to be athletic and catch passes out of the backfield. Players who can catch passes and be multi-faceted at the fullback position will have a better chance to make the roster. What players fit that mold? Let's take a look.

Jerome Felton: As I discussed above, Jerome Felton will need to become more diverse to fit in Norv Turner's offensive scheme. Run blocking fullbacks are fine and dandy, but in Turner's system, he is looking for players who can catch the ball, along with displaying the run blocking skills necessary to be an overall offensive threat. Two running back sets just aren't seen in Norv Turner's philosophy. In fact, the majority of the time, the Vikings will be in single-back sets with three wide receivers on the field. Does this make Felton expendable if another player like Zach Line can do his job, while being more diverse at the position group? Yes, and if the Vikings keep three (or even four) tight ends, the probability of Felton being released becomes less of a distinct reality. He'll be a free agent after 2015, but there's just $666,000 left on his signing bonus. The Vikings could financially make this move and it would make sense if Norv Turner likes what he sees from multiple players at the tight end position group.

Zach Line: Zach Line spent the majority of the season on injured reserve, but did see time during Jerome Felton's suspension at the start of last season. He proved he can provide skills similar to a running back, while being able to cover the fullback duties, as well. That not only makes Line more marketable, but it will ultimately help his chances when roster cuts role around. He was known for his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield at the college level and actually had a long receiving touchdown in the preseason. He can play running back in a pinch and he has the flexibility to be a hybrid running back/fullback. Line adds a strong work ethic to the table and according to several reports, he has the capability to learn quickly. If he can perform well enough on the practice fields at training camp, he can make a push for a roster spot.

As I discussed, don't be surprised if the Vikings keep four tight ends and just one fullback. It all comes down to whether Norv Turner feels the solid run blocking from Jerome Felton, or the diversity of Zach Line are more important. Both of them could make the roster if the Vikings keep only three tight ends, but this seems less likely based upon various reports out of practice. Ultimately, the philosophy will be witnessed early in training camp, when we see how the offense is structured, but the fullback position appears less important than in year's past.

In their 25 regular-season games together, Peterson has averaged 121.0 yards and 5.6 per carry. In his other 76 career games, he has averaged 92.5 yards and 4.8 per carry. http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_24678606/vikings-adrian-petersons-secret-service-is-jerome-felton

I somewhat think Jerick McKinnon may be in the mix as a receiving/blocking RB and gave him that percentage of the targets Turner has given to a FB.

At the same time Jerome Felton has made a significant difference as a lead blocker for Peterson in the running game. At least in 2012.