2014 Team/Player Spotlight -- Washington (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: Washington Redskins

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Recommended Players to Discuss (Player Page links provided):

QB Robert Griffin III

RB Alfred Morris

RB Lache Seastrunk

RB Roy Helu

WR DeSean Jackson

WR Pierre Garcon

WR Andre Roberts

TE Jordan Reed

Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
• FBG Projections

 

[TheDirtyWord]

To RGIII or not to RGIII…that is the question.

The wheels came off the bus in Washington last season, a process that started when RGIII’s leg was whipsawed against the girth of Haloti Ngata’s body during the 2012 season. A player that looked so dynamic, confident and in sync with an offense that seems perfectly suited to his talents his rookie year, was transformed into a tentative mess. There certainly were valid reasons for his drop-off, or at least you could attribute valid reasons for his drop-off. Fact is, he did come back most likely too quickly from his ACL injury. And because of his injury, was not able to take advantage of the 2013 off-season like a young QB normally can. Coupled with the garbage fire that Shannahan’s downfall imitated, and quite frankly…it would have been tough for WAS and RGIII to take a step forward in a positive direction last season. But just because those elements are now a thing of the past for WAS and RGIII, does that mean we’ll see a return to form by RGIII and the franchise overall?

I wasn’t all that impressed with the hire of Jay Gruden. It would be different if CIN was sold on Andy Dalton as their future at the QB position. But 3 years in, the complaint about Dalton centers around his inconsistency. Is RGIII more talented than Dalton? Yes. But do I feel like he has a better grasp on the nuances of the NFL game? I don’t see much differentiation between where Dalton was and is and where RGII needs to go as well. So is Jay Gruden the absolute right coach to right the ship here…? I’m not exactly sold. However, the atmosphere in WAS last season got to be about as poisonous a locker room environment can get.

For years though, WAS had seemingly suffered from a dearth of offensive weapons. The last 5 years, the 2nd leading receiver on WAS (including TE’s) averaged:

50 Receptions
654 Receiving Yards
3-4 TD’s.

But a couple of FA additions in Desean Jackson and Andre Roberts really have WAS in a position to be explosive offensively. Added to Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed, WAS can boast a top tier collection of pass catching talent. But even during his spectacular rookie season, RGIII was terribly good at making great use of his 2nd & 3rd reads. And going back to Dalton for a second, Dalton heavily relied on one of the best WR’s in the NFL to boost his productivity. Consider that in 2013, if you look at AJ Green’s best 8 games…all games in which he exceeded 93 yards receiving, Dalton put up the following numbers:

203 Completions
323 Attempts
2521 Passing Yards
62.8% Completion Rate
7.8 YPA
21 TD’s
10 INT’s

The 8 in which Green had under 93 yards, his 8 worst games?

160 Completions
263 Attempts
1772 Passing Yards
60.8% Completion Rate
6.73 YPA
12 TD’s
10 INT’s

I don’t want to pin Dalton’s struggles solely on Gruden. It might very well be that Dalton as a QB is simply a mid-tier ceiling guy. And if a defense finds a way to take a way the best option in any passing game, they’ve helped themselves significantly. But the delta above is a stark difference in performance. WAS has acquired an x-factor in Desean Jackson, but as mercurial as he is…will be bring a consistent force to a passing game that needs a consistent 2nd option to Pierre Garcon who is the clear-cut WR1? Can Gruden foster development in RGIII that he didn’t appear to successfully foster with Dalton? A lot of questions to be answered with this offense.

RGIII – I doubt RGIII will fall in drafts. The polarizing aspect of his potential/upside is going to make at least 1 owner in a league overdraft him. Perhaps it’s unfair to say he’ll be overdrafted. If he doesn’t get hurt, he probably comes into the 2013 NFL season as no lower than a 2nd round pick. So he has played well enough and produced at a level that could make him a very coveted commodity in FF. But there are going to essentially be two types of FF players this year as it pertains to RGIII. 1) the FF owner who loves his chances at a bounceback season and 2) the FF owner who won’t consider him not because they don’t think he might possibly bounceback, but because he knows that where he’s willing to draft RGIII, no way he’ll be there.

The fact is, RGIII is already being drafted at QB7 on FFC. QB’s drafted behind him include in no particular order; Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Jay Cutler, Colin Kaepernick. Even as it relates to Kaepernick, I could make a case that I‘d prefer him. It may not wind up ultimately being the case, but if I already don’t like RGIII’s value…I don’t think pre-season is going to anything to quell the hype. I’m also not saying I don’t think he can bounceback. Will he bounce all the way back to the efficient and explosive player he was his rookie year though? Fact is, I don’t know if I want RGIII throwing the ball 500+ times. A lot of his production last year came in uber garbage time. And despite the fact that Gruden seems to want to throw the ball much more than Shannahan did…is that a formula for success at this stage of RGIII’s career?

I get that he’s fully recovered. That’ll make a big difference for him on the field just in terms of faith and confidence in his abilities alone. But one stat that I’m using to gauge QB’s in the TD:INT point delta. 4 points/passing TD; 6 points/rushing TD; -2 points/INT; -1 point/fumble lost.

2012: 113 points
2013: 38 points

How good was RGIII’s 2012? Drew Brees put up 132 TD:INT delta points in 2013 with 685 pass/run attempts. RGIII put his 113 points up with only 513. I think RGIII’s will bounce back from his nightmare 2013. But, the factor of his performance that made him elite in 2012 was his production efficiency. And I don’t see that returning to 2012 levels in 2014.

Alfred Morris – If there is an RB that I’m bearish on more than Alfred Morris, I’ve yet to evaluate him. I think there is a significant degree of risk associated with Morris.

1) As a Shanahan hand-picked player, Morris was tremendously effective in the zone-read scheme that was the base of the WAS offense these last two years. And while RGIII may not have been effective in the zone-read scheme last year, the threat of it from my POV was a decent contributor to Morris’s stellar YPC averages.

2) With little value brought to the table in the passing game; despite a historic rookie season that saw him rush for 1613 yards, his snaps decreased from 752 to 611. His touches from 346 to 285. On the opposite end of the spectrum, other RB’s on the roster (not including Darrell Young who is listed as FB) touches went from 275 to 556.

3) Jay Gruden likes the passing game.

4) With his injury problems behind him, I thought Roy Helu showed well in his first extended action since 2011. His skillset seems to be one that Gruden would embrace. And he doesn’t stink at RB.

I’m not saying that Morris is going to get kicked to the curb. But I see some seeds here of an RBBC developing potentially that I would probably not want a part of. And Roy Helu is going RB56 at the moment. So while there is value to be had with Helu, at RB12, Morris is overpriced IMO. I would rather have Ellington.

Roy Helu – I don’t think there is a lot to add for Helu, but if I were to have told you that the snaps played for Morris/Helu worked out to 611/547 last season, I have to think that might come as a shock. It was just that Helu was given Morris breather snaps. From a touch perspective, Helu was only given 93. I don’t think Helu lacks ability, I just think that the timing of his significant injury took him out of an evaluation of RB’s that took place under a previous coaching regime during RGIII’s first season in a new offensive system. With that coaching staff and system removed in favor of a HC that seems to like multi-dimensional RB’s, I think Helu represents a real nice sleeper.

Pierre Garcon – Garcon very quietly put up a great season. Amidst the turmoil of 2013, Garcon was huge. He almost had to be though. Saddled with an emerging stud TE who couldn’t get back on the field because he was dealing with concussion issues, Garcon was almost the only viable receiver and WAS could throw to by seasons end and wound up leading the NFL in targets. His 30.1% target percentage was extremely high What’s working in Garcon’s favor is that his new HC allowed his WR1 in CIN be targeted on 30.6% of their pass attempts. Granted, this is not solely the responsibility of the OC or HC. And the addition of both Desean Jackson and Andre Roberts should help in diversifying the WAS passing attack. But I’d be surprised if Garcon dipped below 25% of WAS’s targets because at the end of the day, he’s turned himself into a heck a receiver. With very good YAC ability and hands that have improved drastically, Garcon is a legitimate WR1 for WAS and with Jackson in a position to take the tops off of defenses, Garcon should be able to fund more room to roam on the underneath and intermediate routes. His foot still scares me a bit, something that’s lingered in my memory since 2012. But he seems to have been able to manage it in a way that doesn’t compromise his ability to stay on the field. Ultimately though, I think Garcon’s targets will take a drop closer to the 135-140 level, but his catch rate has a chance to make up some of the production difference.

Desean Jackson – I have got to admit…I did not see Jackson’s 2013 coming. I’ve always been turned off a bit by Jackson’s demeanor and playing style...moreso his consistency. Up until last year, I always felt that while he might go off and win 1-2 games per year for you with some knockout performances, he’d also frustrate the crap out of you with a series of 2-4 point games…games which if you watched would actually depress you more. But low and behold, he not only found big production, he also found consistency. A cynic might say look at the odd/even years of his production since his rookie season.

One thing is clear though…Jackson did find the ability to wreck havoc on deep balls.

In 2009-2010, on passes travelling 21 or more yards in the air Jackson put up the following line:

29G - 22/1044/9

In 2011-2012, those totals dropped drastically

26G - 15/606/4

2013 saw Jackson reclaim some of his deep ball mojo with a 12/473/7 line.

But going back to the 2009-2013 period, the difference in production in Jackson’s seasons then relied on his ability to be productive deep. On throws 20 yards or less in the air?

2009-2010; 87/1168/6
2011-2012; 85/1055/2

2013? 70/859/2

Jackson had never really shown the ability to frequently produce in the underneath and intermediate routes before 2013. Whether it was Chip Kelly or Jackson simply recognizing a gap in his game and being motivated to make adjustments, developing a better all around game had an impact in every aspect of his production. The question you have to ask yourself though is how Jackson will be used with a true #1 WR opposite him. Going into 2013, the Eagles and Jackson knew that he’d have to be relied on heavily. I mean their #2 WR was a guy everyone in the locker room despised.

Ultimately, I think Jackson will settle in as a more well-rounded receiver for WAS, and one who will pose a threat each time he’s on the field on the outside causing defenses to think behind them where Jackson’s concerned. Also, I don’t see Jackson replicating his snap total of 1010 he attained in 2013.

Andre Roberts – Must be tough to be demoted to WR3 from WR2 after signing a multi-year FA contract, when you haven’t even stepped foot on a practice field to lose your spot. Roberts has always seemed to have sleeper type potential. In 2012, his 3rd season, his 64/759/5 line seemed to portend an upward trend. But the big time emergence of Michael Floyd relegated him to 3rd WR duties. The situation for Roberts hasn’t changed much in the positive. In fact, following his disappointing 4th season in ARI, it’s possible, he’s found himself in a worse one as WAS has a weapon at TE in Jordan Reed that might supersede Roberts spot in the passing game pecking order. PFF had Roberts playing 964 snaps in 2013. From Weeks 3-6, Roberts played 266 snaps and totaled 3/17 on 10 targets. Certainly with a new QB, it’s understandable that in some ways, perhaps Roberts struggled to get on the same page as Carson Palmer. But to that end, he’s still going to get used to a new QB in RGIII and he’s got a shinier new toy to play with, plus other weapons in Garcon and Reed he’s already familiar with, not to mention ancient Santana Moss. Roberts feels like he’s swimming upstream.

Jordan Reed - If you owned Jimmy Graham last year, you probably are more bullish on Reed than most. That’s because when Graham went down with his foot injury, it put his owners on high alert. And so with a bye week to recover, a lot of them snapped up Reed for Week 7 who went on 17/214/1 tear the next two weeks. But this concussion thing scares the pants off me. I almost think it’s worthwhile for FF players to start tracking them because when he went down with his second one of the season, we never heard from him again in 2013. And the story goes that Reed really struggled with his recovery. The fact that he’s ‘fine now’ has no meaning to me, because his susceptibility to another one seems increased and with his recovery slowed on his previous one, I just can’t see myself counting on him. Concussions have truly become the one injury with some level of predictability, and with 10 figure lawsuit hanging over the NFL on the matter, the precautions teams are taking with them are significant. And for a repeat offender like Reed if he were to incur another one…? Quite frankly, I’m astonished to see him going TE7 on FFC at the moment. His availability IMO is a high wire act.

At the end of the day, WAS is a complete open book, but the guy turning the pages is RGIII. He’s going to be the fulcrum that makes this work, or has it fall apart on him. I tend to think that his 2014 will be a significant improvement over last season. Despite my observation above, he’s still immensely gifted and has every opportunity to right the ship that is his career at this point. But I think it will be a slower and steadier climb for him versus the meteoric rise he charted his rookie season. And to that end, even in a weak division, I don’t see WAS making the playoffs. At the same time, they’ll be a tougher out certainly than they were last year.

Predictions:

RGIII: 307 Completions, 496 Attempts, 3545 Passing Yards 22 TD’s, 14 INT’s; 74 Rushes 453 Rushing Yards 3 TD’s
Morris: 224 Rushes, 992 Rushing Yards 10 TD’s 12 Receptions 81 Receiving Yards
Helu: 154 Rushes, 625 Rushing Yards 2 TD’s 39 Receptions 262 Receiving Yards, 2 TD’s.
Garcon: 88 Receptions 1140 Receiving Yards, 6 TD’s.
Jackson: 62 Receptions, 975 Receiving Yards, 6 TD’s
Reed: 47 Receptions, 522 Receiving Yards, 5 TD’s.
Roberts: 34 Receptions, 372 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.

 

[koreansteve]

I think I disagree with TDW on a few points...which is very unfortunate because his analysis is always so thorough. Well...

Jay Gruden:

As a Bengal's fan, we were all sad to see Gruden go. He's been great for us. Dalton isn't a HOF QB or anything near it, but I think most Bengals' fans would attribute that more to Dalton's skill level than Gruden's coaching. I thought he did a great job for the 3 years he was our OC.

RG3:

I'll start by saying I agree with TDW's projection of 74 rushes. Gruden has said that he will be sprinkling in the read option, not using it as a main feature of the offense:

Jay Gruden still loves the read option, but the new Washington coach reiterated that he has no plans on making it the meat and potatoes of the Redskins' offense.

[SIZE=9pt] [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]"We'll have sprinkles here and there," Gruden said in an interview with WSPZ-AM, [/SIZE]per The Washington Post. "It's not going to be a major part. I want to make sure that we have other things that we can do besides the read option, because it takes a toll."

However, I disagree with TDW's projected passing stats.

I think RG3 will attempt 525+ pass attempts. Washington attempted 611 passes last year (many were garbage time, albeit). Gruden averaged 554 pass attempts per season during his 3 years with the Bengals. The league average in 2013 was 567 pass attempts. He now has additional weapons with Garcon/DJackson/Reed/Robers and Helu/Seastrunk out of the backfield. Gruden was quite consistent, with between 54-56% of his plays been passing plays during each of his 3 seasons with the Bengals. With less emphasis on the read-option, I think RG3 will be asked to throw more. RG3 is quite an accurate passer, completing almost 66% of his passes in 2012 and even in a terrible last year, still completeing over 60%. ....All of these things lead me to believe that RG3 will attempt at least 525 passes in 2014.

Also, I think RG3's yards per attempt rebound in 2014. His yards/attempt in 2012 was 8.1, falling to 7.0 in 2013. Last year was a fairly spectacularly bad year in Washington. DJackson arrives with his 17.2 yds/reception stat and should help extend the defense. Garcon's 12.0 yds/reception will not be relied upon for 113 receptions like last year. I think something like 7.3 yds/attempt is more realistic in 2014.

Right now I have RG3 as QB8 in my rankings. I'm sure someone will like him more and take him before I am comfortable with.

Morris vs Helu:

Morris had 276 carries last year.

It seemed like Washington was behind every single game...a big reason for their 611 pass attempts in 2013 (a 38% increase from 2012). I don't see that happening as much this year with a more high-powered offense. Also, with my assumption that RG3's rushing attempts fall in 2014, I think there should be more opportunity for Morris, even if Helu makes it to 70 attempts.

Helu looked good last preseason, but I thought he looked quite average during the season. I have scoured Morris threads in the SP and i have yet to find any posts exalting Helu's abilities. It's mostly "he's ok, average, nothing particularly special". He is a FA in 2015 and it seems that Seastrunk may push him for the 3rd down/receiving role. Seems like many Redskin fans are unsure if he'll be on the team after this year.

I see a 275/75 carry split for Morris/Helu. People have argued endlessly regarding Morris potential pass catching role in Gruden's offense. I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp. Since I have no idea what to expect, I'm projecting 10 or so receptions for Morris.

I have Morris ranked just ahead of Ellington. If we start hearing Gruden talking about how he'd like a 60/40 split for Morris and Helu, then I could see adjusting that 275 figure down.

WRs:

I have almost the exact same projections as TDW...with a few more receptions and a little lower yds/reception...almost the same number of fantasy points.

Jordan Reed:

This kid is an amazing talent. He was on pace for 88-974-6 through his first 8 games last year. But those concussions are terrifying. I believe he's had 4 concussions in the last 4 years. Reed had 48 catches in just 8 games. Factoring in the arrival of DJackson and his injury risk, I think 59 receptions makes sense.

RG3: 337 completions, 535 attempts, 3906 yds, 24 TDs, 14 INTs. 75 rushes, 435 yds, 3 TDs

Morris: 275 rushes, 4.4 yds/carry, 1210 yds, 7 TDs. 10 receptions, 80 yds, 0 TDs

Helu: 90 rushes, 4.3 yds/carry, 387 yds, 3 TDs. 35 receptions, 245 yds, 2 TDs

Garcon: 92 receptions, 1141 yds, 6 TDs

DJackson: 67 receptions, 1060 yds, 7 TDs

Reed: 59 receptions, 661 yds, 5 TDs

 

[jurb26]

2 projections so far and each has DJax with the lowest per game numbers of his career since his rookie year?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I noticed that the Washington Spotlight ommited the word "Redskins". That's a shame, I think that is over the top PC, even for a fantasy football message board. Until the name change happens, if ever, I think the OP should edit the title, or else edit every other spotlight thread accordingly. Whatever your personal feelings on that are, wait for news to break before striking a name that is potentially offensive.

I appreciate the time and effort by Dirty Word and Korean Steve to do a full blown team analysis of the Redskins. Kudos to them!

I agree with Jurb26 that the projection for Desean looks low. In fact, I think both team projections on the whole are low here. The tipping point for me to be optimistic about the Redskins in terms of fantasy value, is that the defense is not expected to be very good, and in general that goes for all the defenses in that NFC East division. I expect a lot of shootouts this upcoming season in Washington. If anything current ADP's for Redskin players might be undervalued if anything.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

As it relates to DJax, I think this is the first time though that he has played opposite a WR the caliber of Garcon. For the most part, DJax has been WR1 on PHI. The best he'll be in WAS is WR1B. So I think that matters a bit in terms of targets.

As it pertains to RGIII's attempts, consider that his passing + rushing attempts total 570. With running QB's, there are certainly times when pass is called and it turns into a run play. And I think while Gruden certainly is preferential to the pass...while Dalton's attempt numbers went big in 2013 (586)...he only averaged 522 during 2011-2012.

As for the rise in Helu's role in WAS, I think it has more to do with function than talent. Morris has not proven adept at catching passes out of the backfield in his two years as a pro. While he could improve in that area, I don't think he'll siphon that role away from Helu. I also think that one of the problem WAS had was that while Morris touched the ball 46.64% of the time he was on the field, Helu only touched it 17% of the time. I think WAS would do well to even that distribution out. It seemed pretty clear that WAS was not going to run the ball with Helu in the game.

As for Seastrunck, wasn't he the RB who in his career had more drops than receptions? I think he's a developmental guy and won't assume much of a role at all in 2014. Certainly not as a pass catcher.

And as for the overall projection looking low, I have WAS without the cats and dogs of bit players getting yards here and there at 5615 total yards. That would have been good for 11th in the NFL in 2013. Just an FYI...

 

[Archer]

I do not understand why people refuse to give Morris more credit. After 2 seasons in the NFL you can count on 1 hand how many RBs in the history of the game have had a better start. And that is even more amazing when you consider the train wreck of a season Washington had last year, as they had to abandon the run early in a lot of games. Helu and Seastrunk aren't going to take a lot of Morris carries. Morris never seems to get tired. He rarely has a carry without a positive gain. He rarely fumbles. His only knock is in the passing game, but at least he attended Robert's passing camp with Reed and the WRs (Helu wasn't part of this by the way) and has been working on this aspect of his game. He's a practice and weight room warrior with excellent worth ethic. There is ZERO deva in him. I believe he will continue to get better in all aspects of the game. Expect a monster year from him.

 

[MattFancy]

I'm not good at projecting stats, so I'll just leave some thoughts on each of the fantasy relevant players.

RG3: Obviously the 2014 season comes down to which RG3 we get this year, the 2012 version or the 2013 version. I think we'll see something closer to the 2012 version. He's had a full offseason now to just work on his football skills. Last offseason, every minute was dedicated to him getting healthy and cleared to play in Week 1. When you're rehabbing a major injury, you don't have much time to focus on improving your skills. Working with Terry Shea again should help him get back to the basics with his mechanics. The biggest thing for RG3 is going to be not taking so many unncessary hits. Instead of trying to get that extra yard on 2nd and 7, just settle for what the defense gives you and live to play another down.

As far as a projection for RG3, I could definitely see him finishing in the top 10 for QBs this season. Just seeing what Gruden was able to do in Cinncy with Dalton, should set the bar pretty high for RG3. We can all agree RG3 is the more talented QB of the 2. With the addition of DeSean Jackson and Andre Robers, RG3 now has some serious weapons on offense. Add in a healthy Jordan Reed and a very steady Pierre Garcon and RG3 might have one of the better receiving groups in the NFL. I don't think finishing in the top 5 QBs is out of the question this season.

Morris: Morris is coming off his 2nd straight 1200yd+ rushing season. Last season was a bit of a down year for Morris, but the Redskins offense as a whole was not impressive. With the Skins seemingly always playing from behind, Morris still put up solid RB2 numbers in PPR leagues and was a borderline RB1 in non-PPR leagues. The biggest knock against Morris is his lack of use in the passing game. His hands have been a question mark in his 2 years in DC, but after his receiving performance in the Pro Bowl (4rec, 69yds), he showed he does have the ability to catch the ball. I don't think Helu/Seastrunk are a real threat to his carries this season. I'm sure he may lose a few here and there, but I don't see why he shouldn't still see 20-25 carries a game. He's proven he can carry the load when needed. Let's also remember a couple games last year where Roy Helu and Darrel Young were vulturing TDs from Morris. With that, he still had 7 rushing TDs last season. If I had to guess this season, I could see Morris with another 1200yd+ rushing season with 6-9 rushing TDs. I do believe he'll be a little more involved in the passing game and probably end up with around 15-20 catches, which would be a career high for him. Gruden likes to get his backs involved in the passing attack and Morris should see some more passes come his way. I'm saying he finishes somewhere between RB10-RB15.

Garcon: Pierre is coming off a carrer year in which he lead the NFL in receptions with 113. I wouldn't say it would be a stretch to say he probably won't see that many receptions this season. The additions of DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts should take away a few of his targets. However, I could see his TD numbers go up from his 5 he had in 2013. The additions of Jackson and Roberts, along with a healthy Reed, should open things up a bit more for Garcon this season. While he may not see the number of catches he had last season, he should be more efficient this season since teams won't be able to pay as much attention to him. Garcon should push for WR1 numbers again after finishing in the top 15 last season. I could see Garcon finishing anywhere from WR10-WR20 based on how well RG3 improves from last season and how Jackson and Roberts are involved in the offense.

Jackson: One of the bigger wild cards going into 2014 will be DeSean Jackson. Can he improve on his career year last season or will he go back down to what he was before Chip Kelly? Being in a new offense with a new QB and coach are never an easy transition for a WR. Jackson will also have to compete with another top WR across from him in Garcon and a top TE in Reed. I don't think anyone is expecting DJax to repeat his numbers from last season, but I still think he'll be a solid real-life WR2 for the Skins and a borderline WR2/strong WR3 for fantasy purposes. I could see Jackson being used as more of a clear out WR in Washington and catching some short passes in hopes of picking up some YAC yards. RG3 certainly has the arm strength to get the ball to Jackson deep as long as the OL gives RG3 time. Jackson's production will be determined by how well RG3 can get him the ball downfield and how often the Skins decide to feature him on passing plays. I could see Jackson finishing anywhere between WR20-WR25 this season.

Roberts: The addition of Andre Roberts was looking really good for fantasy purposes until DeSean Jackson signed with the Skins. Roberts will more than likely be a better WR for the Skins than he will be for fantasy owners. Roberts will probably be the 4th option in the passing game behind Garcon, Reed, and DJax. I'm not sure if the Redskins offense will be prolific enough to support a 4th option for fantasy purposes. Roberts could have an impact if teams try to take away Garcon/DJax from game to game. Roberts will probably be no more than a bye week filler for most owners this year and be no more than a WR3/4 for the season if things go his way. As a Skins fan, I was definitely excited when Roberts was signed, but the excitment was tempered when Jackson was brough on board.

Reed: The 2nd biggest wild card in the Skins offense behind RG3. If healthy, Reed could easily be one of the top 4 or 5 TEs in the league. During his short time last season, Reed was on pace for one of the best rookie season for a TE in NFL history. Concussions are not a thing to be messed with and Reed suffered 2 last season, which led to him only playing in 9 games last season. The scary thing about Reed this year, if he can stay healthy, he could have an even better year than last year. The addition of DeSean Jackson should allow things to open up in the middle of the field where Reed can wreak havoc on defenses. Again, it's very possible for Reed to finish among the top 5 TEs this season as long as he stays healthy. It's a big question mark, but Reed is certainly worth the gamble in fantasy leagues this season.

Helu/Seastrunk: I'm grouping these 2 together because this early in the preseason, it doesn't seem clear who the backup to Morris will be. If I had to guess, I'd say it's going to be Helu. Gruden liked to utilize multiple RBs in Cinncy, especially in the passing game. Roy Helu has shown he is more than capable of being a solid receiving back. In 2011, Helu set the Redskins single game receptions record when he hauled in 14 passes for 105 yards against the 49ers. Helu could see some 3rd down work and could be worth a flier late in PPR leagues. As for Seastrunk, I don't think he's going to see much time this year outside of a couple of carries here and there to give Morris a breather. Seastrunk still seems really raw as a RB. In deep leagues he could be worth a late round pick, but I wouldn't expect much out of him unless Morris/Helu go down with an injury.

 

[Pots]

I noticed that the Washington Spotlight ommited the word "Redskins". That's a shame, I think that is over the top PC, even for a fantasy football message board. Until the name change happens, if ever, I think the OP should edit the title, or else edit every other spotlight thread accordingly. Whatever your personal feelings on that are, wait for news to break before striking a name that is potentially offensive.

I agree 100% and it stuck out to me as well. Treating the Redskins differently than other team spotlights is poor form.

 

[koreansteve]

This is why I think putting up projections is important in defending your position.

DJax being ranked too low.

You either have to think that Garcon will catch only 75-80 balls (down from 113 in 2013) or that RG3 will throw 550+ times. I don't see either of those happening. TDW has RG3 at 570 attempts when combining passing and rushing. I have him at 605. Those seem like realistic numbers. If TDW's projections put the WAS offense at #11 in 2013, my projections would put them in the top 10 for sure. DJax has never been a big receptions kinda of guy. He had 82 receptions last year in a career year...and now is competing with Garcon, Reed, Roberts, and Helu in an offense that might throw only 500-540 passes all year.

Morris:

I like Morris. When I watched him for 1-2 games I saw Washington play last year I thought he looked quite good. I'm just a bit concerned about how big a role Helu will have. If Helu is unimpressive in camp and all reports are that Morris will be the lead back...then I could bump those carries closer to 290. But it's my impression Helu or Seastrunk will play on 3rd down. It seems like a healthy Helu + Seastrunk will have more than the 63 carries Helu had last year. So I'm not going to project Morris for anything too close to 300 carries just yet. That said, I personally think 275 is very reasonable, while TDW disagrees.

 

[jurb26]

This is why I think putting up projections is important in defending your position.

DJax being ranked too low.

You either have to think that Garcon will catch only 75-80 balls (down from 113 in 2013) or that RG3 will throw 550+ times. I don't see either of those happening. TDW has RG3 at 570 attempts when combining passing and rushing. I have him at 605. Those seem like realistic numbers. If TDW's projections put the WAS offense at #11 in 2013, my projections would put them in the top 10 for sure. DJax has never been a big receptions kinda of guy. He had 82 receptions last year in a career year...and now is competing with Garcon, Reed, Roberts, and Helu in an offense that might throw only 500-540 passes all year.

A couple of things. 1st, DJax has a career YPC of 17.2. You are projecting 15.8 and TDW is projecting 15.7. These are extremely low numbers for a guy widely considered one of the best, perhaps THE best, deep threats in the NFL. I don't think you need to project more catches to be off on your projection. His YPC should be north of 16 at the very least IMO. I'd put him at 16.5, personally. With a legit possession WR working opposite him as well as Reed at TE I think Wash will use him to do what he does best. Beat defenses deep. 2nd, why are we assuming Garçon won't see a decent dip in targets/receptions? This guy had an insane amount of targets last year. A truly unsustainable amount, 184. DJax may have slightly better options to compete with bit Garçon has a vastly better player to compete with, DJax. DJax is so clearly the best WR opposite Garçon while he's been in Wash it's almost comical. I don't expect DJax to become a possession WR and have more targets, but I do expect he has a comparable amount of targets.

It seems you guys are kind of double whammying DJax. Saying his targets and receptions will decrease because of Garçon but not acknowledging his deep/big play ability. I'd agree that his targets will drop from last year, bit with that his efficiency will likely rise in the Wash offense.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I do not understand why people refuse to give Morris more credit. After 2 seasons in the NFL you can count on 1 hand how many RBs in the history of the game have had a better start. And that is even more amazing when you consider the train wreck of a season Washington had last year, as they had to abandon the run early in a lot of games. Helu and Seastrunk aren't going to take a lot of Morris carries. Morris never seems to get tired. He rarely has a carry without a positive gain. He rarely fumbles. His only knock is in the passing game, but at least he attended Robert's passing camp with Reed and the WRs (Helu wasn't part of this by the way) and has been working on this aspect of his game. He's a practice and weight room warrior with excellent worth ethic. There is ZERO deva in him. I believe he will continue to get better in all aspects of the game. Expect a monster year from him.

Agree with this 100%. Morris is really good; Helu is JAG. I'd be pretty stunned if Helu gets anywhere near the snaps that he did last year, assuming that Washington doesn't completely fall apart again and have to play all year from way behind.

 

[Archer]

Gruden has said they will use the same running scheme so this is good for Morris. And why shouldn't they with the success he's had. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. It was Morris – not Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, or LeSean McCoy – that led the NFL with 10 runs of 20+ yards. If he catch 30+ balls this year (they say they are working on it) he could easily finish in the top 5 this year (He finished 7th in PPR leagues in 2012, and the Skins should have a much better offense this year IMO)

*I openly admit I am a Redskins homer, so maybe I am bias, but I just love what I've seen from this kid on the field, and what he's done (and NOT done) off the field. If all players had his kind of drive and humbleness, the league would have a much better product.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

This is why I think putting up projections is important in defending your position.

DJax being ranked too low.

You either have to think that Garcon will catch only 75-80 balls (down from 113 in 2013) or that RG3 will throw 550+ times. I don't see either of those happening. TDW has RG3 at 570 attempts when combining passing and rushing. I have him at 605. Those seem like realistic numbers. If TDW's projections put the WAS offense at #11 in 2013, my projections would put them in the top 10 for sure. DJax has never been a big receptions kinda of guy. He had 82 receptions last year in a career year...and now is competing with Garcon, Reed, Roberts, and Helu in an offense that might throw only 500-540 passes all year.

A couple of things. 1st, DJax has a career YPC of 17.2. You are projecting 15.8 and TDW is projecting 15.7. These are extremely low numbers for a guy widely considered one of the best, perhaps THE best, deep threats in the NFL. I don't think you need to project more catches to be off on your projection. His YPC should be north of 16 at the very least IMO. I'd put him at 16.5, personally. With a legit possession WR working opposite him as well as Reed at TE I think Wash will use him to do what he does best. Beat defenses deep.2nd, why are we assuming Garçon won't see a decent dip in targets/receptions? This guy had an insane amount of targets last year. A truly unsustainable amount, 184. DJax may have slightly better options to compete with bit Garçon has a vastly better player to compete with, DJax. DJax is so clearly the best WR opposite Garçon while he's been in Wash it's almost comical. I don't expect DJax to become a possession WR and have more targets, but I do expect he has a comparable amount of targets.

It seems you guys are kind of double whammying DJax. Saying his targets and receptions will decrease because of Garçon but not acknowledging his deep/big play ability. I'd agree that his targets will drop from last year, bit with that his efficiency will likely rise in the Wash offense.

I hear you...what I would say is that one aspect of RGIII's game that really suffered last year was his deep passing game. Even counting his great rookie season, throwing the ball deep wasn't a particular strength (8/36 on balls thrown 31+ yards his first two seasons) although I would allow that he didn't have near the type of deep threat DJax is. But one reason why I think his YPC does dip a bit is because I think he did show a better ability to be more consistent on the shorter throws whereas earlier in his career he'd have a 4/217/2 game on week and the next he'd go 1/17/0. I think last year was a step forward for him in terms of consistency. So I'm not yet buying that DJax will solve RGIII's deep ball woes. However, he will have an impact in other aspects in the passing game whereas earlier in his career...he was up and down.

 

[jurb26]

This is why I think putting up projections is important in defending your position.

DJax being ranked too low.

You either have to think that Garcon will catch only 75-80 balls (down from 113 in 2013) or that RG3 will throw 550+ times. I don't see either of those happening. TDW has RG3 at 570 attempts when combining passing and rushing. I have him at 605. Those seem like realistic numbers. If TDW's projections put the WAS offense at #11 in 2013, my projections would put them in the top 10 for sure. DJax has never been a big receptions kinda of guy. He had 82 receptions last year in a career year...and now is competing with Garcon, Reed, Roberts, and Helu in an offense that might throw only 500-540 passes all year.

A couple of things. 1st, DJax has a career YPC of 17.2. You are projecting 15.8 and TDW is projecting 15.7. These are extremely low numbers for a guy widely considered one of the best, perhaps THE best, deep threats in the NFL. I don't think you need to project more catches to be off on your projection. His YPC should be north of 16 at the very least IMO. I'd put him at 16.5, personally. With a legit possession WR working opposite him as well as Reed at TE I think Wash will use him to do what he does best. Beat defenses deep.2nd, why are we assuming Garçon won't see a decent dip in targets/receptions? This guy had an insane amount of targets last year. A truly unsustainable amount, 184. DJax may have slightly better options to compete with bit Garçon has a vastly better player to compete with, DJax. DJax is so clearly the best WR opposite Garçon while he's been in Wash it's almost comical. I don't expect DJax to become a possession WR and have more targets, but I do expect he has a comparable amount of targets.

It seems you guys are kind of double whammying DJax. Saying his targets and receptions will decrease because of Garçon but not acknowledging his deep/big play ability. I'd agree that his targets will drop from last year, bit with that his efficiency will likely rise in the Wash offense.

I hear you...what I would say is that one aspect of RGIII's game that really suffered last year was his deep passing game. Even counting his great rookie season, throwing the ball deep wasn't a particular strength (8/36 on balls thrown 31+ yards his first two seasons) although I would allow that he didn't have near the type of deep threat DJax is. But one reason why I think his YPC does dip a bit is because I think he did show a better ability to be more consistent on the shorter throws whereas earlier in his career he'd have a 4/217/2 game on week and the next he'd go 1/17/0. I think last year was a step forward for him in terms of consistency. So I'm not yet buying that DJax will solve RGIII's deep ball woes. However, he will have an impact in other aspects in the passing game whereas earlier in his career...he was up and down.

You're right. RG3 did suffer immensely on deep passes last year. No argument there. Why are we using last year as the standard for him, though? You know, the year he was clearly still recovering from knee surgery and a shell of himself. He was one of the best deep ball passers in the NFL his rookie year, his healthy season. Seems that would be more relevant than last year, no? I think we are seeing a lot of short term memory with RG3. I get it, he should be evaluated on last season as well as his rookie season. Weighing last year so heavily seem like a mistake to me when there is no reason to believe the injury will still be an issue. Add to it that RG3 has never had a dynamic player like DJax to throw to and I think this aspect of the Wash offense is being severely overlooked.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

This is why I think putting up projections is important in defending your position.

DJax being ranked too low.

You either have to think that Garcon will catch only 75-80 balls (down from 113 in 2013) or that RG3 will throw 550+ times. I don't see either of those happening. TDW has RG3 at 570 attempts when combining passing and rushing. I have him at 605. Those seem like realistic numbers. If TDW's projections put the WAS offense at #11 in 2013, my projections would put them in the top 10 for sure. DJax has never been a big receptions kinda of guy. He had 82 receptions last year in a career year...and now is competing with Garcon, Reed, Roberts, and Helu in an offense that might throw only 500-540 passes all year.

A couple of things. 1st, DJax has a career YPC of 17.2. You are projecting 15.8 and TDW is projecting 15.7. These are extremely low numbers for a guy widely considered one of the best, perhaps THE best, deep threats in the NFL. I don't think you need to project more catches to be off on your projection. His YPC should be north of 16 at the very least IMO. I'd put him at 16.5, personally. With a legit possession WR working opposite him as well as Reed at TE I think Wash will use him to do what he does best. Beat defenses deep.2nd, why are we assuming Garçon won't see a decent dip in targets/receptions? This guy had an insane amount of targets last year. A truly unsustainable amount, 184. DJax may have slightly better options to compete with bit Garçon has a vastly better player to compete with, DJax. DJax is so clearly the best WR opposite Garçon while he's been in Wash it's almost comical. I don't expect DJax to become a possession WR and have more targets, but I do expect he has a comparable amount of targets.

It seems you guys are kind of double whammying DJax. Saying his targets and receptions will decrease because of Garçon but not acknowledging his deep/big play ability. I'd agree that his targets will drop from last year, bit with that his efficiency will likely rise in the Wash offense.

I hear you...what I would say is that one aspect of RGIII's game that really suffered last year was his deep passing game. Even counting his great rookie season, throwing the ball deep wasn't a particular strength (8/36 on balls thrown 31+ yards his first two seasons) although I would allow that he didn't have near the type of deep threat DJax is. But one reason why I think his YPC does dip a bit is because I think he did show a better ability to be more consistent on the shorter throws whereas earlier in his career he'd have a 4/217/2 game on week and the next he'd go 1/17/0. I think last year was a step forward for him in terms of consistency. So I'm not yet buying that DJax will solve RGIII's deep ball woes. However, he will have an impact in other aspects in the passing game whereas earlier in his career...he was up and down.

You're right. RG3 did suffer immensely on deep passes last year. No argument there. Why are we using last year as the standard for him, though? You know, the year he was clearly still recovering from knee surgery and a shell of himself. He was one of the best deep ball passers in the NFL his rookie year, his healthy season. Seems that would be more relevant than last year, no? I think we are seeing a lot of short term memory with RG3. I get it, he should be evaluated on last season as well as his rookie season. Weighing last year so heavily seem like a mistake to me when there is no reason to believe the injury will still be an issue. Add to it that RG3 has never had a dynamic player like DJax to throw to and I think this aspect of the Wash offense is being severely overlooked.

Was he? One of the best deep throwers in the NFL his rookie year? He completed 4/17 on passes longer than 31 yards (in the air). Foles last year was 11/23. In less than a full season, he has 3 more completions if this variety than RGIII. to be fair, he had Jackson who caught 9 of those balls. So you could be right in that Jackson could mean that much and add that dimension to RGIII's game. At the same time, I don't want to discount the effect of Chip Kelly on the PHI offense last year. But from my POV, if RGIII does develop proficiency in throwing the deep ball, it would be a new development, not a return to form.

 

[jurb26]

This is why I think putting up projections is important in defending your position.

DJax being ranked too low.

You either have to think that Garcon will catch only 75-80 balls (down from 113 in 2013) or that RG3 will throw 550+ times. I don't see either of those happening. TDW has RG3 at 570 attempts when combining passing and rushing. I have him at 605. Those seem like realistic numbers. If TDW's projections put the WAS offense at #11 in 2013, my projections would put them in the top 10 for sure. DJax has never been a big receptions kinda of guy. He had 82 receptions last year in a career year...and now is competing with Garcon, Reed, Roberts, and Helu in an offense that might throw only 500-540 passes all year.

A couple of things. 1st, DJax has a career YPC of 17.2. You are projecting 15.8 and TDW is projecting 15.7. These are extremely low numbers for a guy widely considered one of the best, perhaps THE best, deep threats in the NFL. I don't think you need to project more catches to be off on your projection. His YPC should be north of 16 at the very least IMO. I'd put him at 16.5, personally. With a legit possession WR working opposite him as well as Reed at TE I think Wash will use him to do what he does best. Beat defenses deep.2nd, why are we assuming Garçon won't see a decent dip in targets/receptions? This guy had an insane amount of targets last year. A truly unsustainable amount, 184. DJax may have slightly better options to compete with bit Garçon has a vastly better player to compete with, DJax. DJax is so clearly the best WR opposite Garçon while he's been in Wash it's almost comical. I don't expect DJax to become a possession WR and have more targets, but I do expect he has a comparable amount of targets.

It seems you guys are kind of double whammying DJax. Saying his targets and receptions will decrease because of Garçon but not acknowledging his deep/big play ability. I'd agree that his targets will drop from last year, bit with that his efficiency will likely rise in the Wash offense.

I hear you...what I would say is that one aspect of RGIII's game that really suffered last year was his deep passing game. Even counting his great rookie season, throwing the ball deep wasn't a particular strength (8/36 on balls thrown 31+ yards his first two seasons) although I would allow that he didn't have near the type of deep threat DJax is. But one reason why I think his YPC does dip a bit is because I think he did show a better ability to be more consistent on the shorter throws whereas earlier in his career he'd have a 4/217/2 game on week and the next he'd go 1/17/0. I think last year was a step forward for him in terms of consistency. So I'm not yet buying that DJax will solve RGIII's deep ball woes. However, he will have an impact in other aspects in the passing game whereas earlier in his career...he was up and down.

You're right. RG3 did suffer immensely on deep passes last year. No argument there. Why are we using last year as the standard for him, though? You know, the year he was clearly still recovering from knee surgery and a shell of himself. He was one of the best deep ball passers in the NFL his rookie year, his healthy season. Seems that would be more relevant than last year, no? I think we are seeing a lot of short term memory with RG3. I get it, he should be evaluated on last season as well as his rookie season. Weighing last year so heavily seem like a mistake to me when there is no reason to believe the injury will still be an issue. Add to it that RG3 has never had a dynamic player like DJax to throw to and I think this aspect of the Wash offense is being severely overlooked.

Was he? One of the best deep throwers in the NFL his rookie year? He completed 4/17 on passes longer than 31 yards (in the air). Foles last year was 11/23. In less than a full season, he has 3 more completions if this variety than RGIII. to be fair, he had Jackson who caught 9 of those balls. So you could be right in that Jackson could mean that much and add that dimension to RGIII's game. At the same time, I don't want to discount the effect of Chip Kelly on the PHI offense last year. But from my POV, if RGIII does develop proficiency in throwing the deep ball, it would be a new development, not a return to form.

Yes, he was. Strange that you used a cut off of 31+ when deep passes are anything over 20 yds. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/20/adot-adjusted-completion-percentage/

Maybe I should stop ruining the value that RG3 and DJax present this year, because it seems nobody is seeing it. This is a perfect marriage of playmakers coming together IMO. What DJax does best will compliment what RG3 does best. His impact on this offense, and departure from the Philly offense, is going to be far greater than you and many are letting on.

 

[nittanylion]

I noticed that the Washington Spotlight ommited the word "Redskins". That's a shame, I think that is over the top PC, even for a fantasy football message board. Until the name change happens, if ever, I think the OP should edit the title, or else edit every other spotlight thread accordingly. Whatever your personal feelings on that are, wait for news to break before striking a name that is potentially offensive.

I agree 100% and it stuck out to me as well. Treating the Redskins differently than other team spotlights is poor form.

. Not going to get into the mudbath about the political issue, but given how the other Threads are titled, this is a glaring omission. I think very, VERY highly of Jason Wood. If someone else was authoring these threads, I might opine that omissions like this are often agenda-driven, and I find that as distasteful as some people find the Redskins nickname.

PLEASE, fbg's, don't inject politics/political correctness into the Shark Pool. It skewed negative over the whole 'Bridgewater Incident', which should serve as a lesson learned. Be objectively consistent with the Football/Fantasy Football Content - either every Thread gets City/Nickname, City, or Nickname. Decide, but please be consistent across all threads.

I've been around since before Ol' Yeller, and have provided a boatload of insight and information in the Redskins Thread over the years. I'd love to participate in this one, but, on principle, I won't until this is addressed, and I'll be very disappointed if addressed, it's not.

Apologies for the hijack. If this gets addressed, please feel free to delete my post. In turn, I'll replace it with some thoughtful analysis about this Team, and others, as you choose to consistently refer to them.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is why I think putting up projections is important in defending your position.

DJax being ranked too low.

You either have to think that Garcon will catch only 75-80 balls (down from 113 in 2013) or that RG3 will throw 550+ times. I don't see either of those happening. TDW has RG3 at 570 attempts when combining passing and rushing. I have him at 605. Those seem like realistic numbers. If TDW's projections put the WAS offense at #11 in 2013, my projections would put them in the top 10 for sure. DJax has never been a big receptions kinda of guy. He had 82 receptions last year in a career year...and now is competing with Garcon, Reed, Roberts, and Helu in an offense that might throw only 500-540 passes all year.

A couple of things. 1st, DJax has a career YPC of 17.2. You are projecting 15.8 and TDW is projecting 15.7. These are extremely low numbers for a guy widely considered one of the best, perhaps THE best, deep threats in the NFL. I don't think you need to project more catches to be off on your projection. His YPC should be north of 16 at the very least IMO. I'd put him at 16.5, personally. With a legit possession WR working opposite him as well as Reed at TE I think Wash will use him to do what he does best. Beat defenses deep.2nd, why are we assuming Garçon won't see a decent dip in targets/receptions? This guy had an insane amount of targets last year. A truly unsustainable amount, 184. DJax may have slightly better options to compete with bit Garçon has a vastly better player to compete with, DJax. DJax is so clearly the best WR opposite Garçon while he's been in Wash it's almost comical. I don't expect DJax to become a possession WR and have more targets, but I do expect he has a comparable amount of targets.

It seems you guys are kind of double whammying DJax. Saying his targets and receptions will decrease because of Garçon but not acknowledging his deep/big play ability. I'd agree that his targets will drop from last year, bit with that his efficiency will likely rise in the Wash offense.

I hear you...what I would say is that one aspect of RGIII's game that really suffered last year was his deep passing game. Even counting his great rookie season, throwing the ball deep wasn't a particular strength (8/36 on balls thrown 31+ yards his first two seasons) although I would allow that he didn't have near the type of deep threat DJax is. But one reason why I think his YPC does dip a bit is because I think he did show a better ability to be more consistent on the shorter throws whereas earlier in his career he'd have a 4/217/2 game on week and the next he'd go 1/17/0. I think last year was a step forward for him in terms of consistency. So I'm not yet buying that DJax will solve RGIII's deep ball woes. However, he will have an impact in other aspects in the passing game whereas earlier in his career...he was up and down.

You're right. RG3 did suffer immensely on deep passes last year. No argument there. Why are we using last year as the standard for him, though? You know, the year he was clearly still recovering from knee surgery and a shell of himself. He was one of the best deep ball passers in the NFL his rookie year, his healthy season. Seems that would be more relevant than last year, no? I think we are seeing a lot of short term memory with RG3. I get it, he should be evaluated on last season as well as his rookie season. Weighing last year so heavily seem like a mistake to me when there is no reason to believe the injury will still be an issue. Add to it that RG3 has never had a dynamic player like DJax to throw to and I think this aspect of the Wash offense is being severely overlooked.

Was he? One of the best deep throwers in the NFL his rookie year? He completed 4/17 on passes longer than 31 yards (in the air). Foles last year was 11/23. In less than a full season, he has 3 more completions if this variety than RGIII. to be fair, he had Jackson who caught 9 of those balls. So you could be right in that Jackson could mean that much and add that dimension to RGIII's game. At the same time, I don't want to discount the effect of Chip Kelly on the PHI offense last year. But from my POV, if RGIII does develop proficiency in throwing the deep ball, it would be a new development, not a return to form.

Yes, he was. Strange that you used a cut off of 31+ when deep passes are anything over 20 yds.https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/20/adot-adjusted-completion-percentage/

Maybe I should stop ruining the value that RG3 and DJax present this year, because it seems nobody is seeing it. This is a perfect marriage of playmakers coming together IMO. What DJax does best will compliment what RG3 does best. His impact on this offense, and departure from the Philly offense, is going to be far greater than you and many are letting on.

I thought 31 yards was a odd cut off for what would be considered a deep pass or not as well. But then again I have been watching Christian Ponder for 2 seasons so my standards are not very high.

I think the source of this cut off is this article- https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/13/qbs-in-focus-pass-depth/

It is dueling PFF naratives!

When you look at Griffin's game stats 2012- http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14875/year/2012/robert-griffin-iii

And just look at the long completions-

88
68
29
30
20
30
30
37
25
61
68
35
31
29
18

I don't think this is intentional, but there were 3 instances of completions being very close to 31yds but not quite 30, 30, 29 missed it by that much.

2013-

27
44
27
33
29
45
17
38
32
62
18
20
30

So 4 instances of the longest completion being below the 31yd cutoff.

According to this article http://www.hogshaven.com/2013/2/5/3955720/robert-griffin-iii-inside-the-numbers-just-how-good-was-he-in-2012

"But, when Griffin III does challenge defenders downfield, he’s been extremely effective. On balls thrown deep, he has an adjusted accuracy percentage of 50 percent, which is fifth in the NFL, and seven of his 36 deep attempts resulted in touchdowns. In other words, when RGIII threw it deep, 20 percent of the time it resulted in a touchdown. That’s not really a sustainable mark over time, but it’s astonishing that he pulled that off over the course of a full season nonetheless."

Griffin was more efficient on passes of 20+ yards in 2012 50% than he was in 2013 39%

I think that Jackson should help the deep ball efficiency. Not sure how much or how much that matters, but it is interesting to consider.

I'm working on these, but still putting together some information.

 

[jurb26]

I'll go ahead and post my projections. I see this being a strong turnaround year for the Wash offense. As I talked about earlier, I think the addition of DJax is going to do wonders for this team.

RG3

After 2 seasons in the NFL RG3 has seen some amazing highs and some bitter lows. His rookie season was as remarkable a rookie campaign as any we've seen in recent years, heck maybe ever. He displayed amazing athleticism, game breaking speed, pin point accuracy and played with a maturity well beyond his years as a rookie. Unfortunately that season ended with RG3 nursing a gruesome knee injury that would plague him all of his 2013 season. 2013 gave us an RG3 that was basically a shell of the rookie that dazzled everyone the season before. A clearly uncomfortable and skittish RG3 muddled through the season lacking confidence and appearing confused at times. He took a sever step back in every statistical way in 2013. Worse yet, he battled his coach and had his leadership questioned by many.

So, turning the page to 2014 what are we to expect? The dazzling rookie who stole the hearts of most NFL fans or the dazed and confused 2nd year QB struggling just to maintain a grip on his position? I think we will see more of the guy who dazzled us as a rookie for a number of reasons. I'll place these in order of importance IMO.

1st and foremost is RG3's health. Let's face it. RG3 just never looked healthy last year. I believe he had little confidence in his knee and it was a problem for him psychologically all season long. His confidence was in the toilet and because of it, he just wasn't the same player. His throwing motion was off, his timing was off and his ability to scare defenses with his legs was nonexistent. I expect that to change this year. When RG3 is at his best he can make playing QB in the NFL look effortless. He can make any throw on the field with ease, is a master of the PA pass and can tuck it and run past any defense in the NFL.

The 2nd reason I'm bullish on RG3 is the offseason additions of D. Jackson and A. Roberts. I'll get to that in a bit.

3rd is the addition of Jay Gruden. Gruden is a great offensive mind and will utilize the players he has in Wash to the best of their ability. I believe we saw this during his tenure at Cinci. I disagree with TDW on this hire. I think it's a very solid one for Wash and I believe Gruden will really get to show his chops as an offensive mind now that he has a QB that can make all the throws. I'm not advocating that Dalton is a bad QB. I think he's adequate but has a tremendous supporting caste around him, primarily AJ Green. RG3 is simply better and I believe he will show that this year, if you aren't convinced enough by his rookie season.

Morris

Morris seems to be a very underrated player in fantasy right now. Odd for a guy who has run for nearly 2900 yds and 20 TDs the past 2 years and has no apparent threats to taking away his primary touches. In a world where it seems bellcow RBs are a dying bread, Morris should be a beacon of light. Yet due to his paltry efforts in the passing game, 20 receptions in 2 years... He has just as many rushing TDs as receptions, he seems to be overlooked. You also have the Shanny built him stigma attached to him. This may in fact be true, but so what? Who is going to take his place? Jay Gruden stuck with a far lesser runner in BJGE while in Cinci so I think he will stick with Morris in Wash. Morris is what BJGE hopes to become... But won't. With RG3 healthy and the additions at WR the running lanes for Morris are going to be significantly better this year vs. last. With that, RG3 will also likely steal a good bit of carries from Morris as well. Still, I'm buying Morris as a guy you can count on for at least 250 carries this year barring injury.

Garçon

There weren't many bright spots in Wash last year but Garçon certainly qualifies as 1 of them. He had a breakout season amassing 113 receptions and 1346 yds. If anything was disappointing about his season it is that he managed only 5 TDs despite all those catches and yds. What fueled this amazing season for Garçon was a league high 183 targets. This number is both impressive and unsustainable at the same time. Impressive that Garçon was able to produce with such little help around him. Unsustainable given the improvements the team has managed this offseason. I expect a pretty drastic decline in targets for Garçon in 2014. Wash has added D. Jackson, Roberts and also had another emerging player at TE last season, Reed. That's not entirely bad, though. Garçon may not see near the targets he did in 2013 but his efficiency should go up with healthy RG3 and the added weapons to divert attention.

D. Jackson

To me, Jackson is quite possibly the missing piece of the puzzle for Wash on offense. He's the guy they have been needing to help RG3 flourish for 2 years and the guy who will allow RG3 to utilize his complete skill set. Jackson plan and simply tilts the field. His ability to get over the top of defenses is among the very best in the NFL and that ability changes defensive schemes. Jackson has proven to be one of the best, if not THE best, deep threats in the NFL and a big play machine.... All due respect to other greats like Calvin, AJ and Gordon. Jackson has a career YPC of 17.2 and only 2x has he been under 16 in his 6 year NFL career. One of those season was his rookie year and the other an injury riddled endeavor. Jackson has an amazing 109 (105 receiving and 4 rushing) plays over 20 yds in 87 games played.

RG3 has shown to be one of the best deep ball passers in the NFL when he's healthy, see his rookie year. He's done so despite never having a guy half as good as Jackson to throw to. Couple it with the fact that Wash has an already established WR1 for a possession role and a solid running game. Jackson and his big play ability should be just what Wash has been looking for. I don't expect Jackson to come in and surpass Garçon for targets but also don't think he needs to to have a huge fantasy impact or out score Garçon.

Reed

There may be no TE in fantasy who is more promising than Reed right now. He's got abnormal athletic ability for a guy his size and had the rare ability to create mismatches wherever he lines up. Reed missed 7 games last year but still managed to impress everyone with his 45 catch, 499 yd and 3 TD performance. Now back fully healthy I expect Reed to build on his strong start in 2013. Some may be concerned that there won't be enough targets to go around in Wash. I disagree. Gruden will throw the ball enough (roughly 55%) to keep most everyone happy and he's shown in Cinci that he likes to involve his TEs. With Jackson and Garçon on the outside it could be smooth sailing for Reed to work the middle as RG3's safety valve.

Projections.

RG3

328 completions, 530 attempts, 3922 yds, 25 TDs, 10 Ints

80 carries, 600 yds, 3 TDs

Morris

270 carries, 1215 yds, 10 TDs

20 targets, 15 receptions, 90 yds

Helu

70 carries, 294 yds, 1 TD

50 targets, 40 receptions, 250 yds 1 TD

Garçon

147 targets, 90 receptions, 1080 yds, 6 TDs

D. Jackson

130 targets, 75 receptions, 1237 yds, 8 TDs

Reed

105 targets, 78 receptions, 873 yds, 5 TDs

 

[MattFancy]

I guess we're not calling the Redskins the Redskins now in the Shark Pool? Looks like every other Team Spotlights has a the team's city and mascot.

 

[Biabreakable]

WAS

Jay Gruden Sean McVay

Jay Gruden was hired as the HC after being the offensive coordinator for the Bengals and former TE coach Sean McVay was promoted to OC. They also kept offensive line coach Chris Foerster who has been with the team for 4 seasons now. They will continue to run a ZBS in the running game with Morris as their feature RB.

May 27 article Gruden on the offensive line - http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/6509/gruden-analyzes-redskins-o-line

"I think the style of running attack that Chris Foerster has incorporated here is a solid, sound attack. It’s something we want to continue doing.”

The zone read offense was much talked about for the impact Griffin and Kaepernick had running the offense in 2012. In 2013 defenses seemed to get a bit better against running QBs as Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin saw declines in their yards/carry but Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck improved theirs. The rushing attempts for all of these running QBs look pretty consistent including Griffin. Luck 62/63 Kaep 77/92 Wilson 94/96 Newton 126/127/111 Griffin 120/105

The passing offense is WCO so that should not be much of a change with Gruden. DeSean Jackson had even better yards/catch in Reid's WCO than he did with CK.


Draft/Free agency

LG Shawn Lauvao WR DeSean Jackson WR Andre Roberts DT Jason Hatcher lost TE Fred Davis and WR Josh Morgan. Santana Moss may or may not make the team.


Draft added OT Morgan Moses OG Spencer Long WR Ryan Grant RB Seastrunk TE Bolser ST/reciever UDFA Cody Hoffman


Washington 2013 1107(-43sk) 1064 plays 611pa 5.7ypa 453ra (QB90 19.9%) (QB90+13WR) 4.8ypc 42.57% run
Washington 2012 994(-33) 961 plays 442pa 7.2ypa 519ra (QB123 23.7%) (QB120+21WR) 5.2ypc 54% run
Washington 2011 1032(-41sk) 991 plays 591pa 6ypa 400ra (Qb30)4ypc

RG3 has only been with the team for 2 seasons. So the average of 2012 and 2013 is
1044(-38sk) 1006 plays 520pa 48.31% run 486ra (QB 21.8% = 106)(WR17) 363 RB run

520pa 7.5 ay/a 228.68py/gm 3659patds 3900payds by ay/a

Bengals 2013 1097(-29sk) 1068 plays 587pa 6.7ypa 481ra (QB61+14WR) 406 3.6ypc 45% run 38% RB run
Bengals 2012 1016(-46sk) 970 plays 540pa 6.1ypa 430ra (-QB47+19WR) 364RB run 4.1ypc 44% run 37.5% RB run
Bengals 2011 1015(-25sk) 990 plays 535pa 6.0ypa 455ra (-QB37+10WR) 407RB run 3.9ypc 46% run 41% RB run

Dalton is not a threat running the ball like Griffin is, but he still ran the ball 61 times in Grudens offense. 14 WR runs is the average.

The 5 seasons I am using include 2 rookie QB seasons. So that may cause the sample to be a bit high in rushing attempts.

1043(-33) 1010 plays 554pa 6.26ypa 455ra 45% run 392 RB run

Combined average of 2012-2013 Redskins and 2011-2013 Bengals

1044(-36) 1008 plays 537pa 469ra 46.5% run (QB 21.8% = 102) (-QB102+15WR) 352 RB run


2013 Offensive line ranked 32nd in Adjusted line yards and 19th in pass protection according to football outsiders
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol


fatness on the Redskins offensive line-

"What was terrible last year was straight-up pass blocking. The Redskin O-line is decent at times in stretch running plays, and is lousy at power running plays. As far as personnel, the interior line with the biggest part of the problem. LT Trent Williams was very good as usual. LG Lichtensteiger regressed from the year before and was not so good, getting pushed around a lot. Same with C Montgomery. The worst offender (to me) was RG Chris Chester who just got beat on more plays than anyone else. RT Tyler Polumbus for some reason grades out OK to others (and apparently the coaching staff) but he's a below-average right tackle and should be a backup in my opinion. On this line last year he was the second best performer, but significantly below Williams in performance.

What has changed since last year:
C Will Montgomery cut
LG Cory Lichtensteiger moved to C
LG Lauvao signed (FA formerly of the Browns)
RG Chester remains (for now)
RT Polumbus remains (for now)

I think the only reason the entire unit (besides Williams) wasn't blown up this offseason is because the year before they held up well and the run game made everything else work. The staff probably thinks the remainders can get back to that level.

What happened last year was Griffin's lack of mobility and lack of any preseason work at all due to injury recovery. The plays called the year before weren't called as much when they needed Griffin to be mobile. He was asked to drop back and pass, and this unit just does not do that well. The previous year the defenses didn't know what to anticipate which bought Griffin time in the pocket. Last year he had no such time --- opponents knew he wasn't moving around as much, so they just pass rushed and blew back the interior of the Redskins O-line. And with the exception of Garcon and Reed when he wasn't hurt, nobody got open and caught the ball regularly. The other team no longer had to defend the whole field like the year before.

How well they'll do this year depends on a lot of things -- the personnel changes, Gruden's playcalling, Griffin's improvement during the offseason, training camp, and preseason, and any other rookies or vets they might bring in. Their TE coach last year was really good, and he's been promoted to OC and according to a lot of players really really knows offense, so perhaps he will have ways to improve the line as well.

It's a great big question mark now, and one that will affect Griffin's performance this year a good bit."

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=705336&hl=+josh%20+reed&page=2


I think the additions of rookie offensive linemen OT Morgan Moses OG Spencer Long will add depth and quality to their rotation and possibly push for starting position.


"G Josh LeRibeus: The fact that he’s a third-round pick won’t buy him any more time. Since the offseason ended, the Redskins have signed a starting guard (Shawn Lauvao), added a veteran guard/center (Mike McGlynn) and drafted another guard (Spencer Long). McGlynn struggled at guard as part of a terrible line in Indianapolis last season, but he can play two spots. LeRibeus is strictly a guard. They’re not going to cut Long, a third-round choice. And they still like Adam Gettis, who has shown steady improvement and hasn’t had his work ethic questioned. LeRibeus’ 2013 offseason confirmed the fears some had about him before the 2012 draft. He has a lot to prove. You can throw Maurice Hurt on this list, too. But he's not a former third-round pick.

OT Tom Compton: He’s made steady progress, but will it be enough. The Redskins drafted Morgan Moses and if he doesn’t supplant Tyler Polumbus, he will definitely be on the roster. They won’t keep three players who only play tackle, so Compton has a lot to prove. Offensive line in general will be a crowded competition. "

http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/7662/on-the-spot-redskins-with-a-lot-to-prove?ex_cid=espnapi_public

Running game 469ra (-15WR runs) = 252ra for RB


Robert Griffin 102ra (8ra/gm 2012 6.62ra/gm 2013= 7.3/gm= 117 so 80-100-120ra) 6.3ypc 643yds 3-5TD

352RB run

ALfred Morris has averaged 306ra 4.7ypc 10TD 10rec 7.8ypc the last 2 seasons.

RB Morris
2013 16gm 605os 52.9% 276ra 4.6ypc 13TD 12tg 9rec 8.7ypc
2012 16gm 728os 70.5% 335ra 4.8ypc 7TD 16tg 11rec 7ypc

2yr avg 306ra 4.7ypc 10TD 14tg 10rec 7.86ypc


2014 270-290-310ra 4.7ypc 1269-1363-1457yds 10-15-20tg (71%) 7-11-14rec 7.8ypc 55-86-110yds


RB Helu 4.3ypc 79%catch rate 7.8ypc
2013 15gm 526os 46% 62ra 4.4ypc 4TD 42tg 31rec 8.1pc
2012 3gm injured 44os 4.3% 2ra 1ypc 7tg 7rec 6.4ypc (Royster 225os 21.8% 2012 25% less)
2011 16gm 151ra 4.2ypc 2TD 59tg 49rec 7.7ypc

2012 pro rated to 16gm 235os 32ra 37tg (79%) 29rec

2yr avg 47ra 4.3ypc 43tg 79% catch rate 34rec 7.8ypc 263yds

2014 40-50-60ra 4.3ypc 172-215-258yds 40-45-50tg 32-36-40rec 7.8ypc 250-281-312yds

Helu has been used as a COP receiving RB when healthy. In 2012 they used Royster significantly less in a COP role than they have used Helu.

RB Royster
2013 10gm 12os 1% 2ra 0ypc 1tg 1rec 3ypc
2012 16gm 225os 21.8% 23ra 3.8ypc 2TD 23tg 15rec 7.3ypc
2011 6gm 56ra 5.9ypc 13tg 9rec 7.6ypc

"RB Evan Royster: He was veteran insurance last season, but it’s hard to imagine him sticking around. Roy Helu is a more dynamic player than Royster and now they added Seastrunk. Of course, it could end up that Royster is, once again, in the same role if they want to keep four running backs (plus fullback Darrel Young). "

http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/7662/on-the-spot-redskins-with-a-lot-to-prove?ex_cid=espnapi_public


RB Lache Seastrunk 5% of the offensive snaps would be 50 10-20ra 4.3ypc 43-86yds 0-10tg 0-6rec 7.7ypc 0-46yds

Royster was barely used last season so I would not expect Seastrunk to get much playing time even if he does beat out Royster for the RB3 role. I do think he will get a bit of playing time so they can see him in game action. If he does well in pre season I could see expanding his role. I would expect any greater use of Seastunk this season to more likely come at the expense of Morris than it would Helu because of Seastrunk still needing to develop as a receiver and in pass protection. Could compete for the 3rd down COP role in 2015.

"Player: RB Lache Seastrunk

Why they don’t need him as a starter: Well, they still have Alfred Morris who has rushed for 2,888 yards in his first two seasons. Yes, he needs to improve in the pass game but Morris is adept at constantly getting extra yards – taking what’s available and then some. They also have Roy Helu as a third-down back and backup so Seastrunk, a sixth-round pick, would not be needed for anything other than pinch-hitting duty this year.

Future role: Change-of-pace back/third downs. There was concern among analysts before the draft that Seastrunk would not be durable enough for a full-time role. Seastrunk missed a couple games in two seasons because of groin and hamstring issues. He's only 5-foot-9 and 201 pounds, but Cincinnati’s Giovani Bernard is the same height and seven pounds heavier. So he’s probably a good model for Seastrunk in the future. Last season, under then-offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, Bernard ran the ball 170 times and caught 56 passes.

When he might need to be ready: 2015. That is, for a bigger role. Helu is a free agent after next season so if Seastrunk develops then the Redskins can move on from Helu if so desired. Morris remains under contract for two more seasons and, barring injury, he remains a good fit in the run game (considering the Redskins won’t be changing a whole lot in this area). The Redskins also have Evan Royster and second-year back Chris Thompson, though it's hard to imagine a new coach cutting one of his draft picks to keep someone else's. Besides, Seastrunk was effective at making defenders miss in college, especially in a spread situation. It would work well under Gruden.

What he must work on: Everything that pertains to third downs. He will have to show in a game that his hands aren't an issue, either -- in the pass game or when it comes to fumbling. But this is not just about can he catch the ball; with work I’m sure he can improve if it is indeed an issue. But he needs to learn how to run routes out of the backfield, not just going to the flat but learning how to set up a linebacker and break free. Morris is still learning this. Seastrunk also has to improve in protection; in college he would do it but not with the fire of, say, Clinton Portis (who was unusual in this regard). But Seastrunk will have to learn how not only to block, but who is coming and from where. It takes time. Seastrunk also has to learn how to run out of an I-formation, among other things. He's a good one-cut runner especially when he doesn't try to hit a homer each time. He'll need to learn when to bounce against NFL defenders, but he showed in college he could be an exciting runner."

http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/7946/sizing-up-the-rookies-lache-seastrunk?ex_cid=espnapi_public

FB Darrel Young has averaged 13ra 6rec the past 2 seasons. Career 4.3ypc 11.9ypc

FB Young
2013 13gm 227os 19.8% 12ra 3.4ypc 3TD 9tg 4rec 17.8ypc 1TD
2012 16gm 323os 31.3% 14ra 4.3ypc 9tg 8rec 13.6ypc 2TD
2011 13gm 6ra 5.5ypc 1TD 20tg 15rec 9.7ypc

I would expect Young to have his role of about 300 snaps used mostly as a blocker.

"RB Chris Thompson: A year ago he was the flashy new running back who could provide a different dynamic for the offense. Now it’s sixth-round pick Lache Seastrunk. Though Thompson’s college film also was electric, he’s smaller than Seastrunk and more fragile. Thompson will have to show improvement as a returner and that he can stay healthy if he wants to stick around. "

http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/7662/on-the-spot-redskins-with-a-lot-to-prove?ex_cid=espnapi_public




Passing game 537pa



WR Garcon 27 career 57.6% catch rate 13ypc 4-6TD
2013 16gm 978os 85.5% 2ra 9.5ypc 184tg (11.5tg/gm) 113rec 11.9ypc 5TD
2012 10gm 394os 38.1% 2ra 4.5ypc 67tg (6.7tg/gm = 107tg) 44rec 14.4ypc 4TD
2011 16gm 4ra 7ypc 134tg 70rec 13.5ypc 6TD
2010 14gm 119tg (8.5tg/gm = 136tg) 67rec 11.7ypc 6TD

The average targets for Garcon's 2 seasons with Griffin would be 9.1tg/gm = 145.6tg
2010-2012 average targets 126

I don't expect Garcon to have so many targets again with the addition of Jackson in free agency, Grant and Hoffman through the draft. The 184 targets he had in 2013 was about a 50% increase on his average of 126 from the previous 3 seasons. Which is the level I expect his targets to fall back to now that there are other viable options.

2ra 7ypc 14yds 115-125-135tg 66-72-78rec 13ypc 858-936-1011yds 4-6TD


WR DeSean Jackson 27 career 54.31% catch rate 17.2ypc scored 9TD in 2009
2013 16gm 967os 89.4% 3ra .7ypc 126tg 82rec 16.2ypc 9TD
2012 11gm 698os 61.9% (63os/gm 1015os out of 1079 94%) 3ra -2.3ypc 85tg (7.82tg/gm) 45rec (4.09rec/gm) 15.6ypc 2TD
2011 15gm 7ra 5.9ypc 104tg 58rec 16.6ypc 4TD

3yr average 118tg (54.31%) 64rec 17.2ypc 1101yds

4ra 4.3ypc 13.2yds 100-120-140tg (54.31%) 54-65-76rec 17.2ypc 929-1118-1308yds 4-8TD

Returned 14 punts and 1 kickoff in 2013 but was phased out of punt returns in 2011 after starting poff as a primary PR his 1st 3 seasons.He does have 3 punt return TD so far in his career. Not sure if they plan to use him here or not.

WR Moss 35 years old now. Moss's performance has been in decline since 2011.
2013 16gm 550os 48.1% 3ra 8.3ypc 80tg 42rec 10.8ypc 2TD
2012 16gm 454os 39% 3ra 4.7ypc 61tg 41rec 14ypc 8TD
2011 12gm 5ra -1.2ypc 96tg 46rec 12.7ypc 4TD

"WR Santana Moss: He was going to have a tough time making the roster anyway, considering they have a slot receiver ahead of him already in Andre Roberts. Now the Redskins added another potential slot receiver in fifth-round pick Ryan Grant. He has experience all over, but his quickness makes him a good fit inside. If he shows he can help, there’s no room for Moss. The Redskins also have Leonard Hankerson, who can play inside (but health will be an issue) and Aldrick Robinson. Nick Williams plays inside, but it’ll be tough for him to win a job. As for Moss, he received only a $65,000 bonus to re-sign, so if he ends up being cut it wouldn’t be a surprise. But it would be a tough ending for a player who did an excellent job for a long time in Washington."

http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/7662/on-the-spot-redskins-with-a-lot-to-prove?ex_cid=espnapi_public

WR Andre Roberts 26 career 54.16% catch rate 11.7ypc 2.75TD/season
2013 16gm 606os 55.8% 76tg 43rec 11ypc 2TD
2012 15gm 837os 79.6% 4ra 7.3ypc 113tg 64rec 11.9ypc 5TD
2011 16gm 3ra 9ypc 98tg 51rec 11.5ypc 2TD
2010 15gm 49tg 24rec 12.8ypc 2TD

Roberts was signed in free agency with the opportunity to compliment Garcon and perhaps replace Moss in the slot. His opportunity is not looking as good as before Jackson was signed but ROberts is a reliable WR who should have a significant role in the offense. I have him replacing Santana Moss.

2-4ra 8.1ypc 16-32yds 60-70-80tg 33-38-43rec 11.7ypc 386-445-507yds 2-3TD

WR Robinson
2013 407os 35.6% 3ra -1.3ypc 46tg 18rec 2TD
2012 216os 20.9% 1ra 14ypc 19tg 11rec 21.5ypc 3TD

I do not know much about this player so perhaps I am overlooking him?

WR Hankerson
2013 10gm 390os 34.1% 48tg 30rec 12.5ypc 3TD
2012 16gm 573os 55.5% 2ra 2.5ypc 57tg 38rec 14.3ypc 3TD
2011 4gm 20tg 13rec 12.5ypc
WR Morgan 14gm 385os 33.7%
(708os 68.5% 2012)

I can see Ryan Grant and/or Cody Hoffman perhaps earning a roster spot and taking over Moss/Robinson/Hankerson spot in the offense.

http://blog.redskins.com/2014/05/19/cody-hoffman-ready-to-prove-talent/

WR Nick Williams 5gm 54os 4.7% 11tg 3rec 5ypc


TE Paulsen 60% catch rate
2013 16gm 809os 70.7% 51tg 28rec 9.5ypc 3TD
2012 16gm 675os 65.3% 37tg 25rec 12.3ypc 1TD
2011 16gm 19tg 11rec

As the main blocking TE I would expect Paulsen to be on the field a lot again in 2014. Targets were up for him in 2013 but I am not really expecting that to go up again.

2yr average 44tg

40-45-50tg (60%) 24-27-30rec 10.9ypc 262-294-327yds 1-3TD

TE Reed 9gm 379os 33.1% 1ra 18ypc 59tg 45rec (76.27%) 11.1ypc 3TD
Pro rated to 16 games 42os/gm 673os 6.55tg/gm 105tg 80rec .33TD/gm 5.3 TD
.156tg/snap

If Reed would have been able to play all 16 games at the level he played in 9 he would have joined a rare group of rookie TE players like Jermey Shockey, Keith Jackson which up to this point of time is extremely rare. I find it unlikely that such a performance would have been sustainable even if Reed had not had a concussion which caused him to miss 5 games. I also think it was in part due to a lack of other viable passing options for Griffin at that time, as we see with the high targets for Garcon as well. With additional weapons in Jackson, Roberts, Grant and possibly Hoffman as well, I don't see Griffins options being so limited in 2014 as they were in 2013.

It is difficult for me to project for Reed because of a small sample of games. I cannot do what I did with Garcon which was expecting him to return towards his average targets from previous seasons, as I have no previous seasons for Reed to base that on. Fred Davis had good target numbers in 2012 that I used as a substitute for Reed assuming he is the primary TE receiving target with Paulsen being the main blocking TE.

Reed 2013 42os/gm 673os 6.55tg/gm 105tg 80rec .33TD/gm 5.3 TD
Davis 2012 57.57os/gm 921os 4.43tg/gm 71tg 55rec 878yds

5.49tg/gm = 87.84tg

80-90-100tg (70%) 56-63-70rec 11.1ypc 622-699-777yds 3-5TD

The catch rate is a bit high I think in this smaller sample but the yards/catch may be low. I went with 70% catch rate which is still excellent.

The biggest risk with Reed of course his concussion history. If he does miss time I think some of these targets will shift to Andre Roberts increasing his upside.

TE Davis
2013 10gm 238os 20.8% 17tg 7rec 10ypc 1TD
2012 7gm 403os 39% 1ra 1ypc 31tg 24rec 13.5ypc
2011 12gm 88tg 59rec 13.5ypc 3TD

No longer with the team. Just used the 2012 data for Griffin/Reed.

TE Paul
2013 15gm 150os 13.1% 8tg 4rec 12.8ypc
2012 16gm 224os 21.7% 1ra -1ypc 15tg 8rec 19ypc 1TD
2011 13gm 1ra 7ypc 5tg 2rec 12.5ypc

"TE Niles Paul: He’ll have to be beaten out by seventh-round pick Ted Bolser. But the latter was drafted by the new coach and Paul was drafted by the previous one. Advantage: Bolser. But Paul’s special-teams play has been stellar. But a late-round selection always has to show a lot, otherwise it’s easy to stash them on the practice squad. Had they drafted a tight end in the middle rounds, then Paul’s job would be more in jeopardy. "


Passing game 537pa

QB Robert Griffin 500-530-560pa 313-332-352cmp 3518-3745-3977 passing yards or 219-234-248 passing yards/game 21-25TD 102ra (8ra/gm 2012 6.62ra/gm 2013= 7.3/gm= 117 so 80-100-120ra) 6.3ypc 643yds 3-5TD

Receiving stats

WR Pierre Garcon 115-125-135tg 66-72-78rec 13ypc 858-936-1011yds 4-6TD
WR DeSean Jackson 100-120-140tg (54.31%) 54-65-76rec 17.2ypc 929-1118-1308yds 4-8TD
WR Andre Roberts 60-70-80tg 33-38-43rec 11.7ypc 386-445-507yds 2-3TD
TE Jordan Reed 80-90-100tg (70%) 56-63-70rec 11.1ypc 622-699-777yds 3-5TD
TE Paulsen 40-45-50tg (60%) 24-27-30rec 10.9ypc 262-294-327yds 1-3TD
RB Helu 40-45-50tg 32-36-40rec 7.8ypc 250-281-312yds
RB Morris 10-15-20tg (71%) 7-11-14rec 7.8ypc 55-86-110yds
Others 0-20rec 200yds

Low end completions 272
High end completions is 371

By yards/completion of 12ypc 272-371cmp = 3264-4452yds

Low end of targets 445 3562yds
High end of targets is 575 4552yds

This would average out to 510 targets for the median passing attempts. Which is slightly lower than the 537pa expected. So I feel like this leaves room for a small number of targets that will likely go to other WR like Grant or Hoffman.

The median yardage would be 4057yds or 253yds/gm

This would be 235yds less for passing yards when I account for 33 sacks expected. So 3327-4217 passing yards. Or 3722yds

When I look at Griffin's raw passing yardage the past 2 seasons it is 3447 passing yards to the receivers, before acounting for the sack yardage. This is 215yds/gm

Robert Griffin career 35pa/gm = 561pa 62.7cmp% 200payds/gm 7.5ay/a (-33sk 235yds) 337cmp 4027.5yds by ay/a 1.29TD/gm = 21TD .0424TD/att = 21-24TD

4027yds is 252yds/gm

Looking at all of these 3264-3327-3447-3722-3858-4027-4057-4217-4452 3790 becomes the median or 236payds/gm

The reason I am using this shattershot method for passing yardage is because I am looking for upside/downside. But also to find what a mid range expectation would be as a guide for the final projection.

215yds/gm to 252yds/gm would be a pretty significant improvement from past performance. Averaging his past performance and expected receiving yards would be 233payds/gm which would be 3736payds

Being healthy, going into his 3rd season, additions of Jackson and Roberts through free agency and depth from the draft are all positives. The last part is Gruden likely passing the ball more frequently than Mike Shanahan was. Particularly when starting a rookie QB as Griffin was in 2012.



QB Robert Griffin Robert Griffin 500-530-560pa 313-332-352cmp) 3750-3975-4200yds (by ay/a) (-33sk 235yds = 3515-3740-3965) 3756-3984-4224yds (by Y/C) (-33sk 235yds = 3521-3749-3989yds) 21-24TD for yardage I averaged these 2 methods-


QB Robert Griffin 500-530-560pa 313-332-352cmp 3518-3745-3977 passing yards or 219-234-248 passing yards/game 21-25TD 102ra (8ra/gm 2012 6.62ra/gm 2013= 7.3/gm= 117 so 80-100-120ra) 6.3ypc 643yds 3-5TD

RB Alfred Morris 280-300-320ra 4.7ypc 1316-1410-1504yds 10-15-20tg (71%) 7-11-14rec 7.8ypc 55-86-110yds
RB Roy Helu 40-50-60ra 4.3ypc 172-215-258yds 40-45-50tg 32-36-40rec 7.8ypc 250-281-312yds
RB Lache Seastrunk 5% of the offensive snaps would be 50 10-20ra 4.3ypc 43-86yds 0-10tg 0-6rec 7.7ypc 0-46yds
Royster/Young 0-20ra

WR Pierre Garcon 2-4ra 7ypc 14-32yds 115-125-135tg 66-72-78rec 13ypc 858-936-1011yds 4-6TD
WR DeSean Jackson 4ra 4.3ypc 13.2yds 100-120-140tg (54.31%) 54-65-76rec 17.2ypc 929-1118-1308yds 4-8TD
WR Andre Roberts 2-4ra 8.1ypc 16-32yds 60-70-80tg 33-38-43rec 11.7ypc 386-445-507yds 2-3TD
TE Jordan Reed 2ra 9ypc 18yds 80-90-100tg (70%) 56-63-70rec 11.1ypc 622-699-777yds 3-5TD
TE Paulsen 40-45-50tg (60%) 24-27-30rec 10.9ypc 262-294-327yds 1-3TD
Others 0-20rec 200yds

Overall I think this was a very good offseason for the Redskins. I like their free agent aquisitions and I think they did very well getting 2 young offensive linemen in round 3. Snyder will have more trade ammunition from future drafts now that the cost of the RG3 trade is settled.

 

[Quez]

I'm keeping a close eye on Chris Thompson. If he can stay healthy be may have an edge on Helu.