2015 rookie 1.01 (Pre NFL draft) for Dynasty (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

This set of polls is for rookie picks prior to the NFL draft. There will also be a set of polls for after the NFL draft. As always - please feel free to add any comments on why you selected a player at this slot and to suggest players who you think have been overlooked (or if you voted other, then please feel free to add a post on who you voted for).

The purpose for these polls is to attempt to roughly gauge the perceived values of the rookie players without knowing the context of their draft position and team that they are drafted by. The polls that take place after the NFL Draft obviously will factor in situation as well as talent, and of course the knowledge of what NFL Draft round and team each player has landed on.

Debate is very welcome as we all want to know not only which players are specifically ranked ahead of others but also why. This also bumps the thread so that more people will see the poll and hopefully participate by voting.

I will try to stay on top of these and keep the polls moving. The more votes the better. I prefer to not close any poll until there are at least 100 votes and I might leave a poll open longer if the vote is very close between prospects.

Edit to add other to all of the polls.

 

[jumper]

I presume you mean for dynasty since with his ACL injury Gurley shouldn't be in the discussion for redraft.

 

[Biabreakable]

Yes this is intended for dynasty leagues using standard, PPR and 2QB scoring formats. Will add that to the title. Thanks.

 

[mlball77]

I think we need a "Don't Play" option added to each poll... unless we are to use "Other" in such circumstances (such as someone not playing PPR or not playing 2QB).

Thanks for setting this up!

 

[jeaton6]

2QB? Is that traditionally the setup for these polls?

 

[Biabreakable]

Good point mlball77

For now please use the other option if you do not play in the format, such as 2QB leagues. I will be adding a don't play option to the next poll.

 

[bostonfred]

I'll say Gordon, because all else being equal I want the guy who will be drafted to play right away. it could end up being a Tomlinson/Michael Bennett, or a bell/lattimore. without knowing how he will recover it who will draft him, though, I'll let someone else take the risk reward of Gurley.

 

[Biabreakable]

2QB? Is that traditionally the setup for these polls?

Here are examples of the previous two seasons polls.

2013

2014

 

[jeaton6]

2QB? Is that traditionally the setup for these polls?

Here are examples of the previous two seasons polls.

2013

2014

Gotcha. Thanks for setting up.

 

[Slapdash]

A little surprised Coop is third in the PPR poll right now.

 

[JohnnyU]

Gordon is the pick regardless of this poll. He has all the tools and the only weakness reported on him is a not a real weakness. The only reason he is labeled weak in the passing game is because he wasn't used in it and there is record of him laying wood on the pass rush in pass protection regardless what you may have read. Plus, he is a threat to score on every play, Gurley isn't. Both will be all-pro RBs, but Gordon is the best RB IMO.

 

[beto]

Have to agree with JohnnyU. I'm surprised to see Gurley leading by a wide margin early.

 

[Biabreakable]

I voted for Gordon.

After 61 voted there is almost a 2 to 1 margin in favor of Gurley.

Perhaps we shouldn't be concerned about his injuries?

For the 2QB poll which QB do people think should be added next?

 

[Mike63]

Gordon is good, but Gurley is better in terms of talent. The injury will probably make him slide to a good team (like Dallas or Seattle) that can afford to wait for him. It's a big risk at 1.1, but one worth taking imo

 

[maf005]

Gurley has been the presumed pick for over a year now and did nothing on the field to convince us that his talent isn't elite/rare. So yes, people are more confident a single ACL tear isn't a career-derailing injury.

Gordon is a really good player who had an incredible season but Gurley is in his own tier.

Also, I can't believe Mariotta is getting more votes than Winston.

 

[ghostguy123]

Also, I can't believe Mariotta is getting more votes than Winston.

Why? not too many immature idiots make great nfl qbs

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'll say Gordon, because all else being equal I want the guy who will be drafted to play right away. it could end up being a Tomlinson/Michael Bennett, or a bell/lattimore. without knowing how he will recover it who will draft him, though, I'll let someone else take the risk reward of Gurley.

When was the last player that never recovered from a clean ACL tear? Lattimore's injury was far more devastating. Lattimore was drafted in the second round of most rookie drafts (and 4th round of NFL draft) because of the risk he would never fully recover.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'll say Gordon, because all else being equal I want the guy who will be drafted to play right away. it could end up being a Tomlinson/Michael Bennett, or a bell/lattimore. without knowing how he will recover it who will draft him, though, I'll let someone else take the risk reward of Gurley.

When was the last player that never recovered from a clean ACL tear? Lattimore's injury was far more devastating. Lattimore was drafted in the second round of most rookie drafts (and 4th round of NFL draft) because of the risk he would never fully recover.

If the Colts draft either player it will have plenty of influence on those with the 1.01.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'll say Gordon, because all else being equal I want the guy who will be drafted to play right away. it could end up being a Tomlinson/Michael Bennett, or a bell/lattimore. without knowing how he will recover it who will draft him, though, I'll let someone else take the risk reward of Gurley.

When was the last player that never recovered from a clean ACL tear? Lattimore's injury was far more devastating. Lattimore was drafted in the second round of most rookie drafts (and 4th round of NFL draft) because of the risk he would never fully recover.

If the Colts draft either player it will have plenty of influence on those with the 1.01.

I think if Gurley gets drafted in round 1 or even round 2, it should signal a clean bill of health and take away any concerns - but yes, I agree a plum landing spot will go a long way towards which RB is the better bet.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I voted for Gordon.

After 61 voted there is almost a 2 to 1 margin in favor of Gurley.

Perhaps we shouldn't be concerned about his injuries?

For the 2QB poll which QB do people think should be added next?

The dropoff from Mariota/Winston to Hundley and then to the next group of QBs is great enough that you can probably hold off on adding another QB for a few polls.

 

[Borden]

Voted for Gurley.

I think that if Gurley doesn't get hurt he's clearly the number 1. Watching his draft breakdown games then watching Gordon's it seemed clear Gurley was better. Injuries aren't career killers anymore. And unlike Lattimore it's his first.

For the sake of illustration, if Gordon had a 83 rating in Madden I would give Gurley a 91 without injury. So, if this injury costs him anything less than 10% of his value he should be better than Gordon. These numbers are completely made up to show my thoughts. Please don't use them for discussion.

 

[JohnnyU]

Voted for Gurley.

I think that if Gurley doesn't get hurt he's clearly the number 1. Watching his draft breakdown games then watching Gordon's it seemed clear Gurley was better. Injuries aren't career killers anymore. And unlike Lattimore it's his first.

For the sake of illustration, if Gordon had a 83 rating in Madden I would give Gurley a 91 without injury. So, if this injury costs him anything less than 10% of his value he should be better than Gordon. These numbers are completely made up to show my thoughts. Please don't use them for discussion.

I never considered Gurley's injury at all and I still put Gordon ahead of him because of his big play ability. I also see several draftniks choosing Gordon over Gurley. Now if Gordon gets drafted into an even split RBBC I may lean toward Gurley if he is in a prime spot, because I think both will be Pro Bowl RBs.

 

[Borden]

JohnnyU, I'm going to go back and rewatch these guys just because of you. I though Gurley had the better big play ability.

 

[ShamrockPride]

I'm shocked Gurley is leading so easily. I think AP has really distorted everyone's view of knee tears. And not in a good way.

 

[Tau837]

 

[-CE-]

I'll say Gordon, because all else being equal I want the guy who will be drafted to play right away. it could end up being a Tomlinson/Michael Bennett, or a bell/lattimore. without knowing how he will recover it who will draft him, though, I'll let someone else take the risk reward of Gurley.

When was the last player that never recovered from a clean ACL tear? Lattimore's injury was far more devastating. Lattimore was drafted in the second round of most rookie drafts (and 4th round of NFL draft) because of the risk he would never fully recover.

Kenny Irons?

The fact is it's not a matter of recovery but a matter of whether or not they will ever be the same. We've seen guys like Charles and Peterson bounce back and be amazing, but you don't remember the guys that never come back... like Kenny Irons.

 

[bostonfred]

I'm not even worried about recovery that much. I mean, it's an issue, but not a deal breaker like it used to be. My concern is really that I can see indy taking Gordon over Gurley because they need him to play right away. I can see av team like Seattle, new England, the 49ers or the saints taking Gurley because they don't need him right away. One the draft happens my opinion will definitely solidify but if I drafted today o tale Gordon 1.1.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think the vote is conclusive enough for me to give this one to Gurley and move on.

I just wanted to point out that Gurley missed playing time in 2013 due to an ankle and also a thigh injury. The ACL tear he had in 2014 has had a successful surgery and younger players are more likely to recover from these injuries than players who are over 25 according to a study I read a few years ago. So he has that going for him as well. There is still risk with him that won't become more clear until after the combine. The NFL draft will provide some more information about teams assessment of his health as well, but for now I have to take that risk into consideration until new information about his health becomes available.

His running style is very violent and may lead to more injuries in the future because of that.

 

[Biabreakable]

Poll closed. The current poll can be found here.

 

[Biabreakable]

Mister CIA wants mutual censorship.

Makes sense.

 

[Mister CIA]

Mister CIA wants mutual censorship.

Makes sense.

Q.E.D.

 

[jurb26]

I voted Gurley in all formats bit color me surprised to see him run away with this poll so easily. I assumed the knee injury would scare a lot more people off. Personally, I've thought the knee worries have been severely overblown for a while now.

 

[Biabreakable]

I voted Gurley in all formats bit color me surprised to see him run away with this poll so easily. I assumed the knee injury would scare a lot more people off. Personally, I've thought the knee worries have been severely overblown for a while now.

Overblown in what way?

Do you know that Gurley will be healthy enough to participate in OTAs? Training Camp? Preseason? Regular season?

None of the NFL teams know the answer to those questions yet. So what makes you think it is a non issue? Or severely overblown?

If anything this poll shows how the risk is being ignored.

What if Gurley isn't healthy enough to play in 2015? Would that have any effect on your decision to draft him first overall?

ETA - The current poll is available here. People keep bumping the old polls while not commenting in the current ones.

 

[jurb26]

I voted Gurley in all formats bit color me surprised to see him run away with this poll so easily. I assumed the knee injury would scare a lot more people off. Personally, I've thought the knee worries have been severely overblown for a while now.

Overblown in what way?

Do you know that Gurley will be healthy enough to participate in OTAs? Training Camp? Preseason? Regular season?

None of the NFL teams know the answer to those questions yet. So what makes you think it is a non issue? Or severely overblown?

If anything this poll shows how the risk is being ignored.

What if Gurley isn't healthy enough to play in 2015? Would that have any effect on your decision to draft him first overall?

ETA - The current poll is available here. People keep bumping the old polls while not commenting in the current ones.

Reactions like this are what I think make it severly overblown. You realize he will be 9 months removed from surgery in early August, right? 9 months is pretty much a ceiling for this type of recovery now, not a floor. Unless there is reason to believe has has significant complications, there is no validation to him not playing this season. That's not to say he will play at 100%.

Gurley is just that much better than any other RB in this class, or recent classes, that even if he's at 85% Id take him over the rest. Plus, this is a dynasty poll, not redraft.

 

[-CE-]

I voted Gurley in all formats bit color me surprised to see him run away with this poll so easily. I assumed the knee injury would scare a lot more people off. Personally, I've thought the knee worries have been severely overblown for a while now.

Overblown in what way?

Do you know that Gurley will be healthy enough to participate in OTAs? Training Camp? Preseason? Regular season?

None of the NFL teams know the answer to those questions yet. So what makes you think it is a non issue? Or severely overblown?

If anything this poll shows how the risk is being ignored.

What if Gurley isn't healthy enough to play in 2015? Would that have any effect on your decision to draft him first overall?

ETA - The current poll is available here. People keep bumping the old polls while not commenting in the current ones.

Reactions like this are what I think make it severly overblown.You realize he will be 9 months removed from surgery in early August, right? 9 months is pretty much a ceiling for this type of recovery now, not a floor. Unless there is reason to believe has has significant complications, there is no validation to him not playing this season. That's not to say he will play at 100%.

Gurley is just that much better than any other RB in this class, or recent classes, that even if he's at 85% Id take him over the rest. Plus, this is a dynasty poll, not redraft.

Is 9 months really the new ceiling for recovery from an ACL injury? I know there are guys that have done it, but 9 months seems like an awfully short time to call it the ceiling? I would consider there to be a difference from "got on the field 9 months later" to "performed like he did prior to the ACL injury." I suppose Maclin went from ACL tear in preseason 2013 to performing at a high level in 2014... are there any other recent examples?

Also I've voted on the new poll, but wanted to continue this discussion here.

 

[jurb26]

I voted Gurley in all formats bit color me surprised to see him run away with this poll so easily. I assumed the knee injury would scare a lot more people off. Personally, I've thought the knee worries have been severely overblown for a while now.

Overblown in what way?

Do you know that Gurley will be healthy enough to participate in OTAs? Training Camp? Preseason? Regular season?

None of the NFL teams know the answer to those questions yet. So what makes you think it is a non issue? Or severely overblown?

If anything this poll shows how the risk is being ignored.

What if Gurley isn't healthy enough to play in 2015? Would that have any effect on your decision to draft him first overall?

ETA - The current poll is available here. People keep bumping the old polls while not commenting in the current ones.

Reactions like this are what I think make it severly overblown.You realize he will be 9 months removed from surgery in early August, right? 9 months is pretty much a ceiling for this type of recovery now, not a floor. Unless there is reason to believe has has significant complications, there is no validation to him not playing this season. That's not to say he will play at 100%.

Gurley is just that much better than any other RB in this class, or recent classes, that even if he's at 85% Id take him over the rest. Plus, this is a dynasty poll, not redraft.

Is 9 months really the new ceiling for recovery from an ACL injury? I know there are guys that have done it, but 9 months seems like an awfully short time to call it the ceiling? I would consider there to be a difference from "got on the field 9 months later" to "performed like he did prior to the ACL injury." I suppose Maclin went from ACL tear in preseason 2013 to performing at a high level in 2014... are there any other recent examples?

Also I've voted on the new poll, but wanted to continue this discussion here.

Most notable recent examples would be Peterson and Charles, who recovered in about the same time and had utterly dominating seasons on that short recovery timeline. Here is a recent write up on Gurley expressing what I said and expanding on it.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2363497-despite-injury-todd-gurley-is-2015-nfl-drafts-most-talented-player

Gurley has youth on his side and that is an important thing to remember. Again, I don't think he will be 100% this season, but he should be able to play unless there is an unforeseen set back.

As someone who mortgaged a lot to ensure I landed the #1 overall pick, this is a pretty important topic to me. I was not expecting Gurley to run away with this poll at all. I expected Gordon to close the gap, perhaps even pass him. I guess the draft could still alter that. If Gordon goes several picks higher than Gurely or maybe just to a better opportunity, things likely change. It's interesting to me that a lot of the fear associated with Gurley's knee has begun to subside, though.

Like I said before, I've always felt the injury concern was overblown. Still, it's a viable conern none the less. I just expected it to be a larger issue for most voters.

 

[-CE-]

Most notable recent examples would be Peterson and Charles, who recovered in about the same time and had utterly dominating seasons on that short recovery timeline.Here is a recent write up on Gurley expressing what I said and expanding on it.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2363497-despite-injury-todd-gurley-is-2015-nfl-drafts-most-talented-player

Gurley has youth on his side and that is an important thing to remember. Again, I don't think he will be 100% this season, but he should be able to play unless there is an unforeseen set back.

As someone who mortgaged a lot to ensure I landed the #1 overall pick, this is a pretty important topic to me. I was not expecting Gurley to run away with this poll at all. I expected Gordon to close the gap, perhaps even pass him. I guess the draft could still alter that. If Gordon goes several picks higher than Gurely or maybe just to a better opportunity, things likely change. It's interesting to me that a lot of the fear associated with Gurley's knee has begun to subside, though.

Like I said before, I've always felt the injury concern was overblown. Still, it's a viable conern none the less. I just expected it to be a larger issue for most voters.

We're more or less in the same boat. I ended up with the 1.01 in my league because of a few savvy trades a few years ago - and I've been leaning towards Gordon all offseason because of the Gurley injury. Of course most of this was related to being burned on Lattimore at the 1.11 a few years ago (completely different injury with the contact and violent nature of the injury involved, I know. Was it also his second ACL tear?), but also because I believe Gordon will also be an all-pro RB for years to come.

At this point I see these two RB's as 50-50 but the momentum is certainly shifting to Gurley for me. I think it will come down to where these two are drafted at this point.

 

[texasbirdfan]

I guess I am missing something here.
Isn't this all conjecture of the highest order until AFTER the NFL draft? Where a player lands and to a certain extent in what order he was picked can change any of these predictions in to a jumbled order.

 

[amicsta]

Unless Gordon or Gurley end up in Dallas, Amari at the 1.01 all day every day.

 

[jeaton6]

What if Amari in OAK or NYJ?

 

[Biabreakable]

I guess I am missing something here.

Isn't this all conjecture of the highest order until AFTER the NFL draft? Where a player lands and to a certain extent in what order he was picked can change any of these predictions in to a jumbled order.

People are making dynasty decisions prior to the NFL draft. These polls are meant to help facilitate more informed decisions for those who are making decisions and moves prior to the NFL draft.

It also can be a resource that people can look back on as far as how voters valued the prospects prior to the NFL draft. Something that I have found useful before, and I gave a few examples of that in another one of these threads (forget which one now).

Your point is correct however. That post NFL draft the order that people value these players will shift somewhat based on draft position and team fit.

 

[Madden Curse]

I guess I am missing something here.

Isn't this all conjecture of the highest order until AFTER the NFL draft? Where a player lands and to a certain extent in what order he was picked can change any of these predictions in to a jumbled order.

Personally I think it's useful to take everyone's pulse based on talent and before situation skews their opinions, and to see HOW situation skews those opinions. It's like comparing rankings before and after the combine.

I have seen some very wild changes in rankings based on combine numbers and situation, and personally, I find it very useful to see rankings that have been based entirely on game tape.

Just seeing the evolution of rankings from pre-combine, post-combine, post-draft, and pre-season is very, very instructive in figuring out who may be getting over-hyped.

 

[beef]

What if Amari in OAK or NYJ?

I couldn't use 1.01 on a player in one of those offensive crapholes.

 

[Hankmoody]

I guess I am missing something here.

Isn't this all conjecture of the highest order until AFTER the NFL draft? Where a player lands and to a certain extent in what order he was picked can change any of these predictions in to a jumbled order.

A - That's why it's called the Pre-Draft Poll

B - Talent is a much bigger indicator for most of us. Sankey went to a team with a huge hole at RB, Hill went to a team with a very young next-gen stud looking RB. see how that turned out. Cooks went to play with Brees in the NO offense sans Lance Moore and with an ever-declining Colston as the "lead" horse, yet Evans and Beckham are the ones that looked like the next elite WR's. Situations change, in particular when talent forces them to.

 

[FUBAR]

Just for fun, who do you pick if...

White goes to Chicago
Cooper to Atlanta
Gurley to San Diego
Gordon to Dallas
Parker to Indy

Although I would like Cooper in Atlanta I don't see that happening. Nor Parker falling to Indy. the others are certainly strong possibilities.

I'll play along though. Assuming QRRWWWTF and a 12 team PPR league. All would be in the same tier

Gurley

Cooper

Gordon

White

Parker

My predictions (right now) in order of how I'd pick them if true:

Gurley - Detroit

Gordon - Dallas

Cooper - Oakland

White - Chicago (this is one pick that seems to make too much sense)

Parker - Miami

 

[Borden]

Thanks for moving this FUBAR. This is a much better spot.

So, I guess to sharpen the point on this question, what are the landmine teams (if any) that would drop Gurley out of the 1.01 spot?

Edit; I know a few of the teams have been mentioned but was wondering if it's a consensus as to which teams.

 

[FUBAR]

Thanks for moving this FUBAR. This is a much better spot.

So, I guess to sharpen the point on this question, what are the landmine teams (if any) that would drop Gurley out of the 1.01 spot?

Edit; I know a few of the teams have been mentioned but was wondering if it's a consensus as to which teams.

I don't think any team automatically drops him for everyone but if he's not the first or second rb taken that would be a huge red flag.

Obviously some would not take him if he lands behind a young bellcow but imo if a team like the Steelers or Chiefs take him that's a indication that they think that highly of him.

 

[Biabreakable]

Thanks for moving this FUBAR. This is a much better spot.

So, I guess to sharpen the point on this question, what are the landmine teams (if any) that would drop Gurley out of the 1.01 spot?

Edit; I know a few of the teams have been mentioned but was wondering if it's a consensus as to which teams.

I don't think any team automatically drops him for everyone but if he's not the first or second rb taken that would be a huge red flag.

Obviously some would not take him if he lands behind a young bellcow but imo if a team like the Steelers or Chiefs take him that's a indication that they think that highly of him.

I agree with the first point that if Gurley isn't the first or second RB drafted. Then there is likely a concern teams have about him that would be causing them to pass for another RB.

It is entirely possible that the mock draft community, which seems very high on Gurley is incorrect. If he isn't drafted in the first round. You have to wonder why all 32 teams would pass on him.

Gurley could be drafted by the Eagles.Then what?

 

[FUBAR]

Thanks for moving this FUBAR. This is a much better spot.

So, I guess to sharpen the point on this question, what are the landmine teams (if any) that would drop Gurley out of the 1.01 spot?

Edit; I know a few of the teams have been mentioned but was wondering if it's a consensus as to which teams.

I don't think any team automatically drops him for everyone but if he's not the first or second rb taken that would be a huge red flag.Obviously some would not take him if he lands behind a young bellcow but imo if a team like the Steelers or Chiefs take him that's a indication that they think that highly of him.

I agree with the first point that if Gurley isn't the first or second RB drafted. Then there is likely a concern teams have about him that would be causing them to pass for another RB.

It is entirely possible that the mock draft community, which seems very high on Gurley is incorrect. If he isn't drafted in the first round. You have to wonder why all 32 teams would pass on him.

Gurley could be drafted by the Eagles.Then what?

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he fell into the 2nd. Then the jags or Jets take him.

He would still be my top pick in most leagues.

 

[cstu]

Thanks for moving this FUBAR. This is a much better spot.

So, I guess to sharpen the point on this question, what are the landmine teams (if any) that would drop Gurley out of the 1.01 spot?

Edit; I know a few of the teams have been mentioned but was wondering if it's a consensus as to which teams.

I don't think any team automatically drops him for everyone but if he's not the first or second rb taken that would be a huge red flag.Obviously some would not take him if he lands behind a young bellcow but imo if a team like the Steelers or Chiefs take him that's a indication that they think that highly of him.

I agree with the first point that if Gurley isn't the first or second RB drafted. Then there is likely a concern teams have about him that would be causing them to pass for another RB.

It is entirely possible that the mock draft community, which seems very high on Gurley is incorrect. If he isn't drafted in the first round. You have to wonder why all 32 teams would pass on him.

Gurley could be drafted by the Eagles.Then what?

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he fell into the 2nd. Then the jags or Jets take him.

He would still be my top pick in most leagues.

The only RB Belichick has drafted in the 1st was Maroney, but if Gurley is there he'd be difficult to pass on.