Tau837
Footballguy
I already posted that the Chargers are in the bottom 10 in major sports and bottom 3 in the NFL in their usage of advanced metrics, at least per a recent ESPN article. That isn't surprising, given Telesco is a Polian disciple, and Polian generally dismisses advanced metrics. And McCoy has made it clear he does not and will not trust anything on paper over his experience/gut. So I doubt they are using them much.Advanced statistics and grading are meaningful and certainly something that I hope Telseco and Co note when deciding whether to make an offer and how much.Fine, we can disagree. But FWIW, PFF grades every player on every play to reach their grades; their grades don't necessarily correlate to standard statistics. The fact that they gave Boldin a top 20 grade and Crabtree a terrible grade is meaningful IMO.I'm not going to say Boldin is a bad player, I'm the one who brought him up as an example that "doesn't get seperation" isn't always the end all to being a talented receiver. I thought that was your original point of contention.
Boldin last year had 66yrd/game, and a TD every 3.2 games
Crabtree last year had 44yrd/game and a TD every 4 games
I don't think either had a great year(nor Stevie Johnson, nor Vernon Davis). All I can tell you is only JAX and the NYJ had fewer passing yards last season so that sounds like a trainwreck to me from the standpoint of a receiver. If PFF has some formula that says Boldin was a great player and Crabtree was a bad player based on those #'s..... <shrug> ok. Like 'Gunz said, Crabtree will be another year removed from a major injury so I still say he would do no worse than what Royal produced if Crabtree was in the SD offense. We can disagree.
I just don't think the process is to look at PFF, see a low grade, and move on.
In addition to Crabtree's skill set, I like the fact that he's experienced and should be able to step in day 1 and start. If we are going to win now, we're going to need to roll the dice on a couple of guys and hope for a big rebound.
I agree that the PFF grade isn't the be all end all. It's just one tool available to me beyond standard statistics that I put some stock in, because I like that they watch and grade every play, regardless of the player's role on the play. Perhaps it is worth noting that Allen, Floyd, and Royal all had positive PFF grades last season. As I already mentioned, Boldin had a positive grade and Crabtree had a substantially negative grade. Either PFF was far off in their grading, or Crabtree performed very poorly last season.
Looking at DVOA and DYAR shows a similar outcome, with Boldin, Floyd, Allen, and Royal all above Crabtree. In that case, it is closer, as Allen ranks around 55th and Crabtree 63rd. But Crabtree is still the lowest.
However, looking at WPA/EPA shows Crabtree ranked below Floyd and Royal but above Boldin and Allen. I am not as familiar with those statistics, so I'm not sure how to balance them vs. the other metrics. I do know they are focused only on the plays involving the player, not every snap, but otherwise I'm not sure how to explain the difference. But even from that page, you can see Crabtree's awful YPR and YPT numbers from last season.
Based on PFF and DVOA, Stevie Johnson grades out higher than Crabtree, though he played less than half as many snaps, so not sure how he would have done with more work.