tommyGunZ
Footballguy
There is a bit of projection in that comment - but Rivers will own every Charger QB record by the time he's done.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
***2015 San Diego Chargers - Offseason News, Notes, & Analysis*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tommyGunZ
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
1 charger fan feels this way. I doubt he is old enough to remember the fouts/winslow era.
Tau837
Footballguy
I'm the biggest Rivers fan in this forum, but I wouldn't say that. I would say he is clearly one of the best, along with LT, Seau, Fouts, Winslow, and Alworth, in no particular order.
If Rivers plays 3+ more seasons for the Chargers, he will surpass Fouts in accumulated statistics and will far surpass him in wins. Rivers is already much better in rate statistics, though of course a lot of the difference has to do with playing in different eras.
But here is the thing. Fouts, Winslow, Seau, and Alworth are in the HOF, and LT will be when he becomes eligible. As of today, Rivers won't be. Not when he has played with so many better contemporaries who are viewed as being among the best all time (Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Brees) and other lesser QBs with multiple Super Bowl rings (Roethlisberger, Eli). Hard to say one guy who won't be in the HOF is better than several who are.
If Rivers plays a few more years in San Diego and retires a Charger, and the team wins a Super Bowl during that time, he will make the HOF and be worthy of being called the greatest Charger ever. But that's what it would take.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Rivers could win 1 superbowl and still not make the HOF.
and yeah his numbers will be better than Fouts, but like you said, Fouts put up them numbers in a much different era.
Tau837
Footballguy
Rivers' current all time rankings:
20 completions
20 passing yards
20 total offense
16 passing TDs
7 completion percentage
10 YPA
4 AY/A
5 NY/A
4 ANY/A
10 passing yards per game
18 interception percentage
6 passer rating
28 wins
21 comebacks
35 game winning drives
As already noted, his rate statistics are already elite, and there is no reason to expect those to drop off.
If he plays two more seasons, he will be in the top 10 in completions, passing yards, total offense, and passing TDs, and will be just outside the top 10 in wins. If he plays four more seasons, he should be around 6th or so in all of those metrics.
That is very compelling, as is his iron man streak of never missing a start (already the 4th longest streak of consecutive starts in NFL history for a QB), especially if that continues.
The biggest knock against him right now is the competition, as I mentioned before. He has played in a golden era of quarterback play, and that has kept him from winning significant honors despite the fact that he has played great. However, I think if leads the Chargers to a Super Bowl victory, that would be enough to put him over the top.
Last edited by a moderator:
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
LOL
Remeber that time Danielson wore a chargers jersey in the karate kid? take that to the mr miagi bank boltamigos
cstu
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Not only that but I believe the current franchise tag system was put in place in 2011. I assume he knows that.
Why has no team EVER, in the HISTORY of the NFL, between the years 2011-2014, used the franchise tag two seasons in a row!?!?
(shrug) Don't know. Don't care. But it's a great argument. No, really.
Tau837
Footballguy
No, not aware the current system went into effect in 2011, if that is true. Is the implication that the new system is more favorable to teams than the old system? Do you expect teams to start following the method you are suggesting more often now?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
When circumstances call for it, absolutely.
I am not even sure who is the "victim" here. As long as Rivers continues to play at a franchise qb level he will get paid $20-24mil/season after his current contract expires. That isn't bad imo if you consider that Brady and Manning have taken paycuts to try and win a title.
I am curious who you think the victim might be? For the sake of this argument let's pretend neither you or myself know whether Rivers will still be playing at a franchise qb level in 2018 when he turns 37... or that he'll even want to continue playing football at all. It will be very easy for me to pretend that is the case, I must admit.
I am not even sure who is the "victim" here. As long as Rivers continues to play at a franchise qb level he will get paid $20-24mil/season after his current contract expires. That isn't bad imo if you consider that Brady and Manning have taken paycuts to try and win a title.
I am curious who you think the victim might be? For the sake of this argument let's pretend neither you or myself know whether Rivers will still be playing at a franchise qb level in 2018 when he turns 37... or that he'll even want to continue playing football at all. It will be very easy for me to pretend that is the case, I must admit.
Tau837
Footballguy
Once again, like with the hand wringing comment, you are mischaracterizing my perspective. I am not saying there is a victim.
I have been pretty clear about my perspective:
1. Rivers is one of the best Chargers players ever and is the face of the franchise. The team should desire him to retire as a Charger.
2. I expect Rivers to want to play for at least 5 more years, barring a career threatening injury.
3. I expect Rivers to play at a high level for at least 5 more years.
4. It is very hard to find franchise QBs, and I expect the Chargers to have a drop off in QB play whenever Rivers leaves the team.
Given that perspective, IMO it makes sense for the team to extend him beyond 2017 now. Obviously, you feel differently. But IIRC you have been willing to move on from Rivers for years now, so it isn't that surprising.
I agree that if Rivers makes $44M in 2016-2017, with the opportunity for another contract at that point if he wants to keep playing, he isn't a victim. I never suggested otherwise.
Last edited by a moderator:
Tau837
Footballguy
Bucky86
Footballguy
Part of me wonders if we traded Rivers, and somehow got Mariota, we'd be better off and actually have a chance at contending sooner and for a longer period of time. It seems like we're realistically a year or two away from building a contending team. Then it comes down to Rivers, at his age, will he be able to play 20 games? Look at Manning. He was not even close to his Week 1 self by the time the Broncos were in the playoffs.
Last edited by a moderator:
Tau837
Footballguy
Mariotta is a project IMO. I don't see him as a true franchise QB, so I doubt the team will ever contend with him at QB, but best case it won't be sooner than if they keep Rivers for the next 3-5 seasons. Mariotta literally did not take a snap from center last season except on kneel downs.
Marauder
Footballguy
Kind of reminds me of 1983 when the Chargers used the threat of trading up to get Elway as a bargaining chip to get Fouts to extend. In that case it was a mistake. They could have made the deal to get Elway if they really wanted to. Of course, Mariota is nowhere near in the same ballpark as Elway as a prospect IMO, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are using the same tactic to try to get Rivers to extend.
I wouldn't have a problem with allowing Rivers to end his career with another team if it is in the best long term interests of the team. Many better QB's than him have done it - Montana, Favre, Manning, Unitas, etc. If they could somehow get Mariota relatively cheaply and let him play behind Rivers for a year or two I wouldn't be opposed to it but i don't see that happening.
I wouldn't have a problem with allowing Rivers to end his career with another team if it is in the best long term interests of the team. Many better QB's than him have done it - Montana, Favre, Manning, Unitas, etc. If they could somehow get Mariota relatively cheaply and let him play behind Rivers for a year or two I wouldn't be opposed to it but i don't see that happening.
cstu
Footballguy
He's a huge risk, but I believe his potential is worth. He's got all the tools to be a franchise QB, just needs the time to develop. I'd hate to see him thrown the the wolves next year though.
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't put a lot of faith in mock drafts, but I listened to Chargers talk radio on the way home from work yesterday, and the host went through about a dozen of the latest mock drafts from the "experts". FWIW, all but one of them had the Chargers taking Gordon or Gurley. The other had them taking a WR.
How do Chargers fans feel about this? Given they have done virtually nothing to improve the front 7, I don't think RB (or WR) should be the priority.
How do Chargers fans feel about this? Given they have done virtually nothing to improve the front 7, I don't think RB (or WR) should be the priority.
B Maverick
Footballguy
I was firmly against a RB in the first but with their recent signings I have eased up on it. Hopefully they are in position to go BPA and that player fills a need. Oline, Dline, RB are the biggest needs, I think (could be missing something like DB). If the "experts" are right and the RB draft is 8 deep then a 2nd or 3rd rd rb would be better then taking one of the top 2 early. Fill a bigger hole early.
IMO with the signing of Stevie J to go with Allen, Floyd they have their top 3. Jones makes #5. A mid round wr would be nice to compete with Inman for #4 so wr may not be a need (although if White or Cooper fell that far they may be too good to pass up).
Tau837
Footballguy
Bolts (yawn) going with what they have?
The OL should be improved, possibly significantly, and that was needed. The DBs should be improved, with (hopefully) better health and improved depth.
But, as of today, the defensive front 7 is considerably worse than it was last season, having lost Freeney, Johnson, and Gachkar and added only Unrein. And the front 7 last season was already in need of improvement. And they also have a significant need at RB.
I realize they still have the draft to address some issues, and that should help. But is that really where this team is, with veterans like Rivers, Weddle, and Gates? Working on a 2 or 3 year plan for contending?
This is not surprising, but I find it very discouraging.
The OL should be improved, possibly significantly, and that was needed. The DBs should be improved, with (hopefully) better health and improved depth.
But, as of today, the defensive front 7 is considerably worse than it was last season, having lost Freeney, Johnson, and Gachkar and added only Unrein. And the front 7 last season was already in need of improvement. And they also have a significant need at RB.
I realize they still have the draft to address some issues, and that should help. But is that really where this team is, with veterans like Rivers, Weddle, and Gates? Working on a 2 or 3 year plan for contending?
cstu
Footballguy
The issue I have with taking a RB in the 1st is that there will be very good RB's in the 2nd - Ajaji for example - and the Chargers have a lot of needs besides RB, namely OL.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
They still need a dominant NT. That said, if they could land any kind of impact player in the 1st it would be better than the JAGs (or worse) they've been blowing their 1st rounders on for nearly a decade. The only thing dumber than drafting an RB in 1st this year would be trading up to do so.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
First rounders since 2003:
2003 1.30 Sammy Davis, DB
2004 1.1 Eli
2005 1.12 Merriman, LB
2005 1.28 Castillo, DE
2006 1.19 Cromartie, CB
2007 1.30 Craig Davis, WR
2008 1.27 Cason, DB
2009 1.16 English, LB
2010 1.12 Mathews, RB
2011 1.18 Liuget, DT
2012 1.18 Ingram, DE
2013 1.11 Fluker, OL
2014 1.25 Verrett, CB
Definitely not great drafting, but not all bad.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Liuget/ingram/Fluker and Verrett all could be big contributors this year.
I think if Gurley or Gordon are all that. and they might be thats who they pick in the first
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Liuget and Fluker are just guys. Ingram can't stay on the field, and Verrett didn't manage it in his rookie year. If they use a 1st rounder on an RB they won't be serious competitors any time soon, that's not how championship teams are built.
Tau837
Footballguy
Focus now should be on Telesco's picks, not Smith's. Given the roster Telesco inherited, Fluker was a solid draft pick. Looks like Verrett will be a very good pick if he can stay healthy, and we don't have enough to go on yet to assume that won't be the case.
As I posted earlier in the thread, Telesco's short track record of two drafts has been really good IMO. It is in free agency that he his results have been mixed, including a number of poor decisions.
I agree with you that RB is not the right position for the #1 pick. Nor is WR, unless somehow Cooper/White made it to 17, which won't happen. NT/DL/OL has to be the priority. If Telesco wants a RB from the draft, it has to be later. Personally, I'd rather the entire draft was defense and OL, and the team would just sign a vet RB like Ridley or similar.
Last edited by a moderator:
Gr00vus
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
Most Chargers fans not obsessed about Gurley feel the same way. Many people have Gurley fever though.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Packers sign Guion to a one year deal. I hope this means there is a better chance BJ Raji leaves GB. Rumors were that GB was only offering him a 1yr/$1.xmil deal this time and many believed they might only keep one of the two.
C'mon, Telesco, give Raji a 1yr/$3mil deal... He would be an instant starter on the DL. This seems like a no-brainer.
C'mon, Telesco, give Raji a 1yr/$3mil deal... He would be an instant starter on the DL. This seems like a no-brainer.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I really like Flowers quite a bit, but the the biggest problem on the team last year was up the middle, both on offense and defense. Before SD signed Dunlap/Franklin I was pretty adamant they needed to draft the best pass blocking OT which you could certainly argue might be Flowers.... but based on the fact SD hasn't even met a C I'm now leaning toward hoping for Erving because he's the only starting quality C in the draft. That's why I thought signing a C was so important. In terms of RT/OG there are plenty of guys that could probably beat out the Wiggins/Baca/Troutman/Watt wall of shame. Still hoping 2 of the top 3 picks will be OL.
Actually, I think they should cross their fingers and hope Shelton/Scherff.
Else, in the likely case they are both gone trade down. Everyone rolls their eyes when they hear that but a lot of playoff teams have 9+ picks in this draft and one of them would probably be willing to trade up to get their guy....
BAL(10)
DEN(10)
NE(9)
INDY(9)
CIN(9)
CAR(9)
GB(9)
... I would say all those teams are probably looking for quality over quantity. SD only has six picks and definitely needs quantity.
Worst case scenario, just take Erving who can probably play LG, C, RG, or RT in the NFL. Gives you a lot of flexibility when choosing another OLman later in the draft.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Of the mocks I've read so far the BEST PICKS across different mocks imo were....
1(17)Erving(C/G/T)
2(48)Humphries(OT)
3(83)Mauldin(OLB)
4(117)PJ.Williams(CB)
5(153)Lippett(WR)
6(191)Crawford(DE)
the WORST PICKS
1(17)Gordon(RB)
2(48)Yeldon(RB)
3(83)Mbu(NT) !?!?
4(117)Z.Smith(DE/OLB)
5(153)I.Johnson(SS) !?!?
6(191)D.Barnes(DE)
1(17)Erving(C/G/T)
2(48)Humphries(OT)
3(83)Mauldin(OLB)
4(117)PJ.Williams(CB)
5(153)Lippett(WR)
6(191)Crawford(DE)
the WORST PICKS
1(17)Gordon(RB)
2(48)Yeldon(RB)
3(83)Mbu(NT) !?!?
4(117)Z.Smith(DE/OLB)
5(153)I.Johnson(SS) !?!?
6(191)D.Barnes(DE)
cstu
Footballguy
Great info.
So if they take Erving and keep Fluker at RT is what the OL would be:
LT Dunlap
LG Watt
C Erving
RG Franklin
RT Fluker
As long as Fluker is ok at RT it looks better to me to have a true Center at the position.
Tau837
Footballguy
At this point, I would be very surprised if Watt is not the starting center. Not saying I agree with that approach... like others, I would prefer a center with experience at the position.
Also, pretty sure Franklin will be the left guard, not the right guard. He has said that since he was signed.
Tau837
Footballguy
I assume you are showing what you see as the best picks per round, not necessarily that you would advocate making this collection of picks. The Chargers have so many needs, I hope they do not consider drafting OL with their top two picks. That would be virtually guaranteeing that one of their top two picks is not going to start, which I don't think they can afford. I have zero problem with drafting a second OL later in the draft, but I think they need to expect their top two picks, maybe top three, to start.
Also, I really do not understand people projecting the Chargers to draft a WR. They just signed Johnson and Jones, so those guys are going to make the final roster. Obviously, Allen will make the final roster. Inman is cheap and flashed late last season, so I have to assume he will make it. They signed Pettis to a cheap contract this offseason, and I don't really expect him to make it, but it is at least possible. So that leaves Floyd, who has a fairly large cap number and will be 34 years old. Are people expecting Floyd to get cut? Wouldn't that be a bit unexpected? If he isn't going to get cut, he certainly isn't going to the bench with his cap number. So why would the Chargers draft a WR who would at best be their #4?
cstu
Footballguy
Flipped 'em, missed the comments that Franklin said about playing LG. Watt played LG in college so I thought they might move him back but it looks like he's RG if he's replaced at C.
Last edited by a moderator:
cstu
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I don't think they forgot about Watt, I think they just have a more realistic view of him.
I've seen mock drafts with SD taking Humphries at OT in the 2nd, taking Clemmings in the 2nd, and passing on Flowers to take Clemmings in the 2nd. I have no idea if either of those three guys will actually be there but if they were and SD drafted Erving and any one of them, they would both start.
Fluker@RG + Humphries@RT >> Watt@RG + Fluker@RT
Fluker@RG + Clemmings@RT >> Watt@RG + Fluker@RT
Fluker@RG + Flowers@RT >> Watt@RG + Fluker@RT
For that matter I think if Humphries/Flowers/Clemmings/Fisher and maybe even Ogbuehi were available they should take them in the second round. Those would be huge improvements on the OL. I also really like Donavan Smith and think he fits the Dunlap mold they like but most mocks I've seen suggest he'll be available in the 3rd round.
What I don't really understand is all the Watt-love. The single biggest reason SD missed the playoffs last season was C, and interior line play in general. Watt was part of that. He was projected to go anywhere between the 3rd and 7th round last year and SD took him in the third in a draft that wasn't especially strong for OL. This draft is strong in terms of OL and you could probably draft a 4th rounder to make Watt a reserve. "Watt has his limitations that probably keep him from being an every-day starter, but he should provide quality depth at any of the three interior positions in the NFL"....
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1664189/chris-watt
That's pretty much what I saw last year. If any part of this scouting report was off I would say it over stated how good he was at run blocking based on what we saw last year. Even as a reserve he would still end up playing quite a bit. I doubt very much that the OL plays 80 out of 80 starts.
Tau837
Footballguy
Regarding Watt, he played 331 snaps at center last year and graded out as PFF's #20 center (among those playing at least 25% of their teams' snaps at the position). They gave him the following grades at center: pass blocking (-2.0), run blocking (+1.1), screen blocking (+1.0), penalties (-0.5). Keep in mind, he never played center before. I assume the team sees potential for him to grow into that role and improve with more experience.
Watt played 125 snaps at guard and graded out worse (-2.1) even with fewer snaps. So he was better at C than G.
Given the significant needs of the team, IMO it does not make sense to invest both its 1st and 2nd round picks in OL. I think one of those picks should be OL, provided the value is there, but the other needs to go to the defensive front 7 IMO. Then they can use a later pick for a second OL, especially if this draft is supposed to be deep at OL.
With the addition of Franklin and one 1st/2nd round pick combined with more experience for Watt and hopefully better health for Fluker, IMO the defensive front 7 is a bigger need than adding more OL.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
By NFL standards #4 WR can be a pretty significant role considering McCoy uses the slot receiver in such a prominent role. Three WR's are on the field much of the time.Just Win Baby said:
Gates will be 35 at the start of the season and Floyd will be 34. I don't want to get into any more arguments as to whether athletes tend to experience a decline in their mid 30's... but some people don't find that a controversial statement and I'll just leave it at that.
Even without the age factor Floyd has a long history of health concerns as his 16 games last year was only his second full season of his career, the first one back in 2009. He's also a FA after this season and the smart teams develop replacements to learn the system BEFORE they have a desperate need. Don't get me wrong, I am a fan of Floyd and realize he's a target Rivers loves but at his salary he should be pushed to keep his roster spot, absolutely.
I like Pettis as well and hope he pushes for a roster spot but I think he's had a chance to show that his ceiling is limited. He's never been in a situation as good as this however and I have high hopes for him.
None of us really know much about Inman but that is the type of player than needs to be in a competition for a roster spot.
In a draft that is deep at WR I absolutely would like to see SD draft one in the 4th round or later, especially if a guy unexpected drops like Keenan Allen did. That's a big reason I'd like to see them move down in the draft. SEA for instance has 11 picks in the draft and their first pick isn't until pick 63. At one time I was hoping Perriman might be available at pick 48 and SEA would be interested in trading up for him but they hype train seems to really be rolling on him now. Perriman seems like a SEA type receiver though.
WR's I'd like to see SD target:
4th round
Dorsett is all over the place but I have seen one mock where he drops to pick #119. He would certainly be a guy that can be the speed compliment so many people in this thread want.
Hardy doesn't have the speed of a Dorsett but plays with quickness and has good hands. Reminds me a little bit of a younger Eddie Royal for a slot role and punt returner(Jones may only be in town for a year). Solid blocker. Just seems like a guy that fits the McCoy offense really well.
5th round
McBride is another speedster I've seen mocked to GB at pick #166 multiple places. Small school guy that could play a small role this year but pay big dividends later.
Lippett doesn't have elite speed but is a good route runner with good hands, height, and catch radius. More the type of guy that could step in and instantly contribute.
Mayle already has an NFL build and amazing productivity last year in big time conference.
6th round
Hill is a bit of a lottery ticket. If he returns to pre-ACL-injury form this is an absolute bargain. If not, he still might be a solid depth guy in the NFL. Low cost, possibly high reward pick imo.
Montgomery is a young Jacoby Jones. I see Jones as a one year rental so Montgomery could be a kick return specialist and an outside receiver.
Goodley is fast and physical. Another possible future kick returner. Might be a little bit of a project but has the tools to develop into a special slot player.
Diggs is another fast, returner type with good run after catch.
Devante Davis just seems like a Rivers guy. Big receiver with decent speed that is very physical and likes to fight for the ball. Doesn't create a lot of seperation besides decent speed but if has a QB willing to throw-him-open like Rivers I think he might surprise.
.... and lastly my favorite pet project receiver:
Waller has three numbers that raise your eyebrows. 6'6". 238. And 4.46???? Played in a run heavy system and would probably take years to develop into an NFL WR or move TE but what a piece of clay to start with. Some discipline issues. Nothing else to really like...... did I mention 6'6", 238, and 4.46? There's definitely a reason(or many) he is only drafted in the top 200 in ONE mock draft I've seen. Unless SD can trade down and pick up multiple picks they probably shouldn't take on a project like this that may never play an NFL down. But still....
