2015 Tiers (DL/LB/DB updated 7/5) (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

I'm saving this first post to link all tier articles as I publish them...

Defensive Line -- July 5 -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_rtd_defensive_line_tiers_earlyJuly
Linebacker -- July 5 -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_rtd_linebacker_tiers_earlyJuly
Defensive Back -- July 5 -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_rtd_defensive_back_tiers_earlyJuly

-------------
LB Tiers (Post-Draft Update | May 27) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_rtd_linebacker_tiers_postNFLdraft

DL Tiers (Post-Draft Update | June 17) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_rtd_defensive_line_tiers_postNFLdraft

LB Tiers (Post-FA Update | April 1) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_linebacker_tiers_post_2015FA

LB Tiers (First Update | March 4) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_linebacker_tiers_initial2015

DL Tiers (Post-FA Update | March 26) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_defensive_line_tiers_post_2015FA

DL Tiers (First Update | February 24) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_defensive_line_tiers_initial2015

 

[Jene Bramel]

Before I go live with the first set of tiers at each position, I want to run them through the Forum eyeballs to make sure I'm not making any major omissions, cut-and-paste errors, etc.

There will be one-line blurbs included in the feature article as well as lots of context and discussion. I'm just posting the loose groupings here for quick discussion. Once I get the first articles cleaned up and posted, we can break them down in more depth.

Thanks, everyone.

 

[Jene Bramel]

DEFENSIVE LINE

Note: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Demarcus Ware, Mario Williams will be in the linebacker tiers. I'll note where they'd fit into the DL tiers in the context of the coming article.

INSULT TO TIERS
J.J. WATT

TIER 1 | ELITE DE1
ROBERT QUINN
JASON PIERRE-PAUL (FA)
CALAIS CAMPBELL
GREG HARDY (FA)

TIER 2 | ELITE DE1 UPSIDE
EZEKIEL ANSAH
EVERSON GRIFFEN
CARLOS DUNLAP
JERRY HUGHES (FA)

TIER 3A | DE2 W/ DE1 UPSIDE
SHELDON RICHARDSON
MUHAMMAD WILKERSON
CAMERON WAKE
OLIVIER VERNON
CAMERON JORDAN

TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DE2
DAMONTRE MOORE
CHARLES JOHNSON
JUNIOR GALETTE
JACQUIES SMITH
MICHAEL JOHNSON

TIER 3C | HIGH FLOOR DE2
JURRELL CASEY
CAMERON HEYWARD
FLETCHER COX
MICHAEL BENNETT
COREY LIUGET
MARCELL DAREUS

TIER 4 | DE3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE
null

TIER JUMPERS [REDRAFT WATCH LIST]
BRANDON GRAHAM (FA)
DEMARCUS LAWRENCE
ROBERT AYERS
ADRIAN CLAYBORN (FA)
MALIK JACKSON
DERRICK MORGAN (FA) [added]

ROSTERABLE DT
GERALD MCCOY
AARON DONALD
NDAMUKONG SUH (FA)
KYLE WILLIAMS
GENO ATKINS
SHARRIF FLOYD
SAN'DERRICK MARKS
DONTARI POE
SYLVESTER WILLIAMS
JOHNATHAN HANKINS
BENNIE LOGAN

DYNASTY STASH
DION JORDAN
KONY EALY
MARGUS HUNT
TIMMY JERNIGAN
DOMINIQUE EASLEY

PROSPECT WATCH LIST
RANDY GREGORY
SHANE RAY
DANTE FOWLER
VIC BEASLEY
ALVIN DUPREE
SHAWN OAKMAN
HAUOLI KIKAHA
NATE ORCHARD
ELI HAROLD
OWA ODIGHIZUWA
DANIELLE HUNTER
ZACH HODGES
MARKUS GOLDEN
TREY FLOWERS
LORENZO MAUDLIN

LEONARD WILLIAMS
DANNY SHELTON
ARIK ARMSTEAD
JORDAN PHILLIPS
EDDIE GOLDMAN
MALCOM BROWN
PRESTON SMITH
HENRY ANDERSON
MARIO EDWARDS

CARL DAVIS
MICHAEL BENNETT
GABE WRIGHT
GRADY JARRETT

 

[johnb]

Awesome. Love this piece of your work Jene.

Completely fantasy related question....do you have Jones, Nink, etc. in LB because you'll think they'll be designated there? For instance, they are currently DEs in my leagues while Galette, who you have in this list is currently an LB.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

What about FA types like Derrick Morgan that may well wind up DE classified again? Unless my fuzzy short-term memory is off, even though he was rolling at OLB he was still pretty good at putting hurries on the QB this past year according to PFF(top 20 last year, after being top ten as a DE the year prior).

If we're going to classify our boy Brandon Graham as a lineman already...?

I assume you've got him in the linebacker tiers, but I guess I'm asking if you should/shouldn't have him here too in the event he winds up back with his hand on the ground. If he does his value should spike, no?

 

[jonboltz]

While it might be less likely he ends up in a 4-3, I'd rather have McPhee than Graham if we are playing the "hope they become a DE" game.

 

[Django]

Love your work Jene.

You should drop Shawn Oakman from your prospect list, he will play for Baylor another season

 

[Jene Bramel]

Awesome. Love this piece of your work Jene.

Completely fantasy related question....do you have Jones, Nink, etc. in LB because you'll think they'll be designated there? For instance, they are currently DEs in my leagues while Galette, who you have in this list is currently an LB.

I've used the current Rotoworld designations for players who haven't had an offseason coaching or scheme change, with the expectation they'll continue to be listed where they are now by the end of the summer. Anything is possible with Belichick -- as we saw last year -- but I think Jones and Ninkovich are likely to stick at LB on MFL unless something changes with personnel. The Galette designation surprised me, but I didn't watch the Saints very closely over the final few weeks of the season. PFF charted Galette as leaning DL over LB in usage.

If I'm reasonably certain a player is going to change positions -- Mario Williams, Demarcus Ware, etc. -- I'll go ahead and anticipate the Rotoworld depth chart change early.

What about FA types like Derrick Morgan that may well wind up DE classified again? Unless my fuzzy short-term memory is off, even though he was rolling at OLB he was still pretty good at putting hurries on the QB this past year according to PFF(top 20 last year, after being top ten as a DE the year prior).

If we're going to classify our boy Brandon Graham as a lineman already...?

I assume you've got him in the linebacker tiers, but I guess I'm asking if you should/shouldn't have him here too in the event he winds up back with his hand on the ground. If he does his value should spike, no?

Good point. There were a small handful of edge players who could be signed as defensive line by a new team I didn't include. Morgan would likely have a place in the DL tiers if that happens. I'll put him on the list.

Love your work Jene.

You should drop Shawn Oakman from your prospect list, he will play for Baylor another season

Huh. Totally missed that. Thanks!

 

[FUBAR]

Understand he won't be rated high, but surprised to see Chris Long completely left off.

Is Ra'Shede Hageman a bust already?

 

[pyite76]

Awesome. Love this piece of your work Jene.

Completely fantasy related question....do you have Jones, Nink, etc. in LB because you'll think they'll be designated there? For instance, they are currently DEs in my leagues while Galette, who you have in this list is currently an LB.

I've used the current Rotoworld designations for players who haven't had an offseason coaching or scheme change, with the expectation they'll continue to be listed where they are now by the end of the summer. Anything is possible with Belichick -- as we saw last year -- but I think Jones and Ninkovich are likely to stick at LB on MFL unless something changes with personnel. The Galette designation surprised me, but I didn't watch the Saints very closely over the final few weeks of the season. PFF charted Galette as leaning DL over LB in usage.

If I'm reasonably certain a player is going to change positions -- Mario Williams, Demarcus Ware, etc. -- I'll go ahead and anticipate the Rotoworld depth chart change early.

Am I missing something here? On MFL both Jones and Ninkovich are designated as DEs. Should we expect this to change? They didn't have a scheme change...

I always understood that MFL used Rotoworld to designate positions. Were there positions changed on Rotoworld?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Understand he won't be rated high, but surprised to see Chris Long completely left off.

Is Ra'Shede Hageman a bust already?

He'll end up in the Matchup DL3 tier closer to the season. I don't see him having a high enough chance at 40 solo and/or 8+ sack upside right now to slot him higher. Of course, the DE2 tiers are so weak right now (Jacquies Smith, Michael Johnson, etc) that he probably deserves a second look.

Awesome. Love this piece of your work Jene.

Completely fantasy related question....do you have Jones, Nink, etc. in LB because you'll think they'll be designated there? For instance, they are currently DEs in my leagues while Galette, who you have in this list is currently an LB.

I've used the current Rotoworld designations for players who haven't had an offseason coaching or scheme change, with the expectation they'll continue to be listed where they are now by the end of the summer. Anything is possible with Belichick -- as we saw last year -- but I think Jones and Ninkovich are likely to stick at LB on MFL unless something changes with personnel. The Galette designation surprised me, but I didn't watch the Saints very closely over the final few weeks of the season. PFF charted Galette as leaning DL over LB in usage.

If I'm reasonably certain a player is going to change positions -- Mario Williams, Demarcus Ware, etc. -- I'll go ahead and anticipate the Rotoworld depth chart change early.

Am I missing something here? On MFL both Jones and Ninkovich are designated as DEs. Should we expect this to change? They didn't have a scheme change...

I always understood that MFL used Rotoworld to designate positions. Were there positions changed on Rotoworld?

Yes, Rotoworld lists Jones and Ninkovich at LB currently. The change in role for both didn't come until very late in the preseason last year and they snuck in as DE for 2014.

 

[RT37]

here is a list of guys that I couldn't find in your list above that have been tiered before - I am sure they all have good reason, but in the pursuit of completeness, here it is... hope this helps

LN, FN NFL POS Tier

Lotulelei, Star CAR DT DT TARGETS

Melton, Henry DAL DT DT TARGETS

Smith, Antonio OAK DT DT TARGETS

Joseph, Linval MIN DT DT TARGETS

Ratliff, Jay CHI DT DT TARGETS

Fairley, Nick DET DT DT TARGETS

Jones, Datone GBP DE DYNASTY STASH

Smith, Chris FA DE DYNASTY STASH

Smith, Quanterus DEN DE DYNASTY STASH

Martin, Kareem ARI DE DYNASTY STASH

Crichton, Scott MIN DE DYNASTY STASH

Houston, Lamarr CHI DE TIER 2 | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE

Tuck, Justin OAK DE TIER 3A | DL2 W/ DL1 UPSIDE

Allen, Jared CHI DE TIER 3A | DL2 W/ DL1 UPSIDE

Woodley, LaMarr OAK DE TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2

Avril, Cliff SEA DE TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2

Gilberry, Wallace CIN DE TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2

Long, Chris STL DE TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2

Robison, Brian MIN DE TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2

Kiwanuka, Mathias NYG DE TIER 3C | HIGH FLOOR DL2

Ngata, Haloti BAL DE TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

Clemons, Chris JAC DE TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

Branch, Andre JAC DE TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

Jones, Jason DET DE TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

Mincey, Jeremy DAL DE TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

Selvie, George DAL DE TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

Umenyiora, Osi ATL DE TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

Young, Willie CHI DE TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

Daniels, Mike GBP DE TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

Crick, Jared HOU DE TIER JUMPERS | REDRAFT WATCH LIST

Spencer, Anthony DAL DE TIER JUMPERS | REDRAFT WATCH LIST

Taylor, Devin DET DE TIER JUMPERS | REDRAFT WATCH LIST

Wolfe, Derek DEN DE TIER JUMPERS | REDRAFT WATCH LIST

 

[pyite76]

Understand he won't be rated high, but surprised to see Chris Long completely left off.

Is Ra'Shede Hageman a bust already?

He'll end up in the Matchup DL3 tier closer to the season. I don't see him having a high enough chance at 40 solo and/or 8+ sack upside right now to slot him higher. Of course, the DE2 tiers are so weak right now (Jacquies Smith, Michael Johnson, etc) that he probably deserves a second look.

Awesome. Love this piece of your work Jene.

Completely fantasy related question....do you have Jones, Nink, etc. in LB because you'll think they'll be designated there? For instance, they are currently DEs in my leagues while Galette, who you have in this list is currently an LB.

I've used the current Rotoworld designations for players who haven't had an offseason coaching or scheme change, with the expectation they'll continue to be listed where they are now by the end of the summer. Anything is possible with Belichick -- as we saw last year -- but I think Jones and Ninkovich are likely to stick at LB on MFL unless something changes with personnel. The Galette designation surprised me, but I didn't watch the Saints very closely over the final few weeks of the season. PFF charted Galette as leaning DL over LB in usage.

If I'm reasonably certain a player is going to change positions -- Mario Williams, Demarcus Ware, etc. -- I'll go ahead and anticipate the Rotoworld depth chart change early.

Am I missing something here? On MFL both Jones and Ninkovich are designated as DEs. Should we expect this to change? They didn't have a scheme change...

I always understood that MFL used Rotoworld to designate positions. Were there positions changed on Rotoworld?

Yes, Rotoworld lists Jones and Ninkovich at LB currently. The change in role for both didn't come until very late in the preseason last year and they snuck in as DE for 2014.

Not sure I understand this. On the Patriots website Jones/Ninkovich are both listed as DEs. Patriots play a hybrid, correct?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Not sure I understand this. On the Patriots website Jones/Ninkovich are both listed as DEs. Patriots play a hybrid, correct?

Every defense should probably be considered multiple now, yes. The Patriots decided their best front had Jones at 5-technique during the preseason, with Hightower and Ninkovich as OLB and Collins and Mayo inside. They were already experimenting with ways to move Jones around in the last weeks of the preseason and early weeks of the regular season. After Mayo's injury and the struggles with player depth along the line, they began standing Jones up more as the season progressed. After he returned from his hip injury, Jones was almost exclusively a standup linebacker. Ninkovich played the majority of his snaps from a two point stance all season.

In recent seasons, the Pats had leaned heavily 4-3 -- so that's how Rotoworld had them through the preseason. By the time it was more clear the Patriots would approach 2014 differently, it was past the time when MFL made positional changes. I don't use RW depth charts expect when I do tiers, so I don't know when their charts moved those two players from DE to LB.

The team websites are not official charts and aren't much help. The gamebooks are also messy. They list three defensive tackles with Jones and Ninkovich at DE a number of times last year.

This is not set in stone at all.

If Mayo is healthy, the Patriots will look at Hightower, Jones, Ninkovich, Easley and a couple of other rotational linemen and decide how to best use them. I think there's a good chance we see Jones at RDE and Ninkovich and Hightower as 3-4 OLB again to get both Mayo and Collins on the field inside. For now, Jones and Ninkovich are listed at LB on MFL. I'll note all this in the blurbs that accompany these players in the tiers. In fact, for clarity's sake, I may put an entire sidebar together on this situation.

 

[Jene Bramel]

LINEBACKER TIERS

TIER 1 | ELITE LB1
LAVONTE DAVID
LUKE KUECHLY
DEANDRE LEVY

TIER 2 | ELITE LB1 UPSIDE
PAUL POSLUSZNY
CJ MOSLEY
MYCHAL KENDRICKS
JAMIE COLLINS
BOBBY WAGNER
KEENAN ROBINSON
CURTIS LOFTON
KARLOS DANSBY
PAUL WORRILOW
NAVORRO BOWMAN
SEAN LEE

TIER 2A | RISK-REWARD LB2
DERRICK JOHNSON
KIKO ALONSO
JEROD MAYO
JON BOSTIC
LAWRENCE TIMMONS
VONTAZE BURFICT
DANNY TREVATHAN
ALEC OGLETREE

TIER 2B | HIGH FLOOR LB2
JAMES LAURINAITIS
DARYL SMITH
PATRICK WILLIS
D'QWELL JACKSON

TIER 2C | BIG PLAY LB2
JUSTIN HOUSTON (FA)
VON MILLER
KHALIL MACK
CHANDLER JONES
ALDON SMITH
DEMARCUS WARE
MARIO WILLIAMS
JERRY HUGHES (FA)

TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3
SIO MOORE
TELVIN SMITH
RYAN SHAZIER
JELANI JENKINS
PRESTON BROWN
CHRISTIAN JONES
STEPHEN TULLOCH

TIER 3B | HIGH FLOOR LB3
JERRELL FREEMAN
MANTI TEO
BRANDON MARSHALL
PERRY RILEY
THOMAS DAVIS
CHAD GREENWAY
DEMARIO DAVIS
DEMECO RYANS

TIER JUMPERS | REDRAFT WATCH
DARYL WASHINGTON
CHRIS BORLAND
ZACH BROWN
DAVID HARRIS
DANNY LANSANAH
AVERY WILLIAMSON
DEVON KENNARD
CHRIS KIRKSEY
ROLANDO MCCLAIN
ANTHONY HITCHENS
REY MAUALUGA (FA)
BRANDON SPIKES (FA)
PRINCE SHEMBO
SAM BARRINGTON
EMMANUEL LAMUR
DONTA HIGHTOWER
LARRY FOOTE (FA)
JON BEASON
NIGEL BRADHAM
MASON FOSTER (FA)
MALCOLM SMITH (FA)
WESLEY WOODYARD
JOSH MAUGA (FA)
DANNELL ELLERBE
BRUCE CARTER (FA)
SEAN WEATHERSPOON (FA)
BRIAN CUSHING
NICK ROACH
NATE IRVING (FA)
LANCE BRIGGS (FA)

MATCHUP RUSH LB
TERRELL SUGGS
ROB NINKOVICH
RYAN KERRIGAN
TAMBA HALI
CONNOR BARWIN
CLAY MATTHEWS
BRANDON GRAHAM (FA)
PERNELL MCPHEE (FA)
ROBERT MATHIS
DERRICK MORGAN (FA)

DYNASTY STASH
ARTHUR BROWN
DEE FORD
JEREMIAH ATTAOCHU
LAMIN BARROW

PROSPECT WATCH LIST
ERIC KENDRICKS
PAUL DAWSON
BENARDRICK MCKINNEY
SHAQ THOMPSON
DENZEL PERRYMAN
RAMIK WILSON
STEPHONE ANTHONY
MARTRELL SPRAIGHT
HAYES PULLARD
JORDAN HICKS
BEN HEENEY
-----
RANDY GREGORY
DANTE FOWLER
SHANE RAY
ALVIN DUPREE
VIC BEASLEY
HAUOLI KIKAHA
ELI HAROLD
NATE ORCHARD
DANIELLE HUNTER
OWAMAGBE ODIGHIZUWA
LORENZO MAULDIN
MARKUS GOLDEN
TREY FLOWERS
ZACH HODGES
GENEO GRISSOM
LYNDEN TRAIL

 

[RT37]

LB MIAs - player and former tier ... these guys no longer appear in the tiers

Player Former Tier

Robert Mathis TIER 2C | RUSH / BIG PLAY LB2

Kevin Minter TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3

Christian Kirksey TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3

Brad Jones TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3

Jacquian Williams TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3

Joplo Bartu TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3

Donald Butler TIER 3B | HIGH FLOOR LB3

Koa Misi TIER 3B | HIGH FLOOR LB3

Julius Peppers TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

Jasper Brinkley BEST OF EARLY SEASON MATCHUP CLOUD

Michael Wilhoite BEST OF EARLY SEASON MATCHUP CLOUD

Anthony Barr BEST OF EARLY SEASON MATCHUP CLOUD

DeVonte Holloman FORMER REDRAFT WATCH LIST

Jameel McClain FORMER REDRAFT WATCH LIST

Kevin Burnett FORMER REDRAFT WATCH LIST

LaRoy Reynolds FORMER REDRAFT WATCH LIST

Ernie Sims FORMER REDRAFT WATCH LIST

Jonathan Vilma FORMER REDRAFT WATCH LIST

Vincent Rey INSEASON SPEED DIAL WATCHLIST

Brooks Reed INSEASON SPEED DIAL WATCHLIST

Audie Cole INSEASON SPEED DIAL WATCHLIST

Akeem Dent INSEASON SPEED DIAL WATCHLIST

A.J. Hawk matchup plays

Miles Burris matchup plays

Justin Durant matchup plays

Jadeveon Clowney MATCHUP RUSH LB

John Abraham MATCHUP RUSH LB

Brian Orakpo MATCHUP RUSH LB

Barkevious Mingo MATCHUP RUSH LB

Quinton Coples MATCHUP RUSH LB

Whitney Mercilus MATCHUP RUSH LB

Elvis Dumervil MATCHUP RUSH LB

Junior Galette MATCHUP RUSH LB

Melvin Ingram MATCHUP RUSH LB

Tahir Whitehead strong lb2

 

[JAK Straw]

Not sure I understand this. On the Patriots website Jones/Ninkovich are both listed as DEs. Patriots play a hybrid, correct?

Every defense should probably be considered multiple now, yes. The Patriots decided their best front had Jones at 5-technique during the preseason, with Hightower and Ninkovich as OLB and Collins and Mayo inside. They were already experimenting with ways to move Jones around in the last weeks of the preseason and early weeks of the regular season. After Mayo's injury and the struggles with player depth along the line, they began standing Jones up more as the season progressed. After he returned from his hip injury, Jones was almost exclusively a standup linebacker. Ninkovich played the majority of his snaps from a two point stance all season.

In recent seasons, the Pats had leaned heavily 4-3 -- so that's how Rotoworld had them through the preseason. By the time it was more clear the Patriots would approach 2014 differently, it was past the time when MFL made positional changes. I don't use RW depth charts expect when I do tiers, so I don't know when their charts moved those two players from DE to LB.

The team websites are not official charts and aren't much help. The gamebooks are also messy. They list three defensive tackles with Jones and Ninkovich at DE a number of times last year.

This is not set in stone at all.

If Mayo is healthy, the Patriots will look at Hightower, Jones, Ninkovich, Easley and a couple of other rotational linemen and decide how to best use them. I think there's a good chance we see Jones at RDE and Ninkovich and Hightower as 3-4 OLB again to get both Mayo and Collins on the field inside. For now, Jones and Ninkovich are listed at LB on MFL. I'll note all this in the blurbs that accompany these players in the tiers. In fact, for clarity's sake, I may put an entire sidebar together on this situation.

Serious question. At what point do we simply give up having DL in dynasty leagues? It's become almost stupid to draft talent there and have them remain at the position. Yeah, DTs aren't going to play LB but seems like any talented DE ends up being designated as a LB due to scheme changes. Does the structure of leagues using IDPs need to radically change?

 

[FUBAR]

Jene - would like your thoughts on two pass rush LBs I think at least belong on the dynasty stash list, though you might not be going deep on the rushing LBs due to many leagues undervaluing that role.

Kyle Van Noy - didn't do much last year after being injured, but should be a stash or someone to keep an eye on.

Alex Okafor - made a decent LB4 in big play leagues when he returned from injury, played better than Hali (whom you have listed) and should only get better.

 

[JaxBill]

DL Questions

- Are you still expecting high end production from Ansah now that he'll be easier to double with the expected loss of Suh and to a lesser extent Fairley?

- Is Jernigan really a dynasty stash? Very good player but is he that valuable in his role?

- Thoughts on Ryan Davis? Is he just a depth guy for the Jaguars or do you see his role expanding?

 

[jonboltz]

TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3
SIO MOORE

Confused me on this one.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Serious question. At what point do we simply give up having DL in dynasty leagues? It's become almost stupid to draft talent there and have them remain at the position. Yeah, DTs aren't going to play LB but seems like any talented DE ends up being designated as a LB due to scheme changes. Does the structure of leagues using IDPs need to radically change?

It's a good point, but I'm not sure how a change would work with league management sites.

I've been breaking draft prospects into edge / defensive line / off-LOS LB categories across the front seven in recent years, but that might be very tough to translate to fantasy leagues.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene - would like your thoughts on two pass rush LBs I think at least belong on the dynasty stash list, though you might not be going deep on the rushing LBs due to many leagues undervaluing that role.

Kyle Van Noy - didn't do much last year after being injured, but should be a stash or someone to keep an eye on.

Alex Okafor - made a decent LB4 in big play leagues when he returned from injury, played better than Hali (whom you have listed) and should only get better.

I still like Van Noy -- but I'm not sure I see a clear every-down role for him and there's a lot of competition for tackles right now, which could be a long term issue if the Lions keep that DT group together.

Okafor deserves another look for the matchup rush LB tier, thanks.

DL Questions

- Are you still expecting high end production from Ansah now that he'll be easier to double with the expected loss of Suh and to a lesser extent Fairley?

- Is Jernigan really a dynasty stash? Very good player but is he that valuable in his role?

- Thoughts on Ryan Davis? Is he just a depth guy for the Jaguars or do you see his role expanding?

**Ansah is a stud talent. I'm much more concerned about durability than surrounding cast.

**Jernigan has the profile of a disruptive, penetrating player in both phases. He's not the second coming of Geno Atkins, but there's value when his snap count grows.

**This offseason will tell the tale on Davis. I think he's a situational player, but we'll see.

TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3
SIO MOORE

Confused me on this one.

He's either in the risk-reward LB2 tier or upside LB3 tier. I haven't written the LB blurbs yet and that sometimes pushes me in a different direction. Issues here are durability, questionable run fits, improvement of Khalil Mack overall, possible improvements at MLB and SS positions.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Jene,

When I see generic lists of IDPs it doesn't provide much help unless I know the scoring system that the lists are based off of so could you please post the scoring system you are basing these rankings off of?

It really helps to know the scoring system because rankings of players can vary significantly even with minor adjustments in how a league awards IDP points.

Also many people like to see trends of players, if the points are trending up/down over the last two or three years or how a change in a defensive system or coaches impacts actual IDP points scored. Basically rankings are nice but cold hard points are the true measure so we need to know what scoring system you use to base your rankings on.

 

[FUBAR]

Jene,

When I see generic lists of IDPs it doesn't provide much help unless I know the scoring system that the lists are based off of so could you please post the scoring system you are basing these rankings off of?

It really helps to know the scoring system because rankings of players can vary significantly even with minor adjustments in how a league awards IDP points.

Also many people like to see trends of players, if the points are trending up/down over the last two or three years or how a change in a defensive system or coaches impacts actual IDP points scored. Basically rankings are nice but cold hard points are the true measure so we need to know what scoring system you use to base your rankings on.

Hoping the write up provides a lot of that. Increased playing time, impact of the other 10 players, scheme, and role changes should be key.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene,

When I see generic lists of IDPs it doesn't provide much help unless I know the scoring system that the lists are based off of so could you please post the scoring system you are basing these rankings off of?

It really helps to know the scoring system because rankings of players can vary significantly even with minor adjustments in how a league awards IDP points.

Also many people like to see trends of players, if the points are trending up/down over the last two or three years or how a change in a defensive system or coaches impacts actual IDP points scored. Basically rankings are nice but cold hard points are the true measure so we need to know what scoring system you use to base your rankings on.

Always a balanced system, which for me includes any system where sacks are worth between 2.5 and 4.5x the value of a solo tackle. The tiers note where the big play tiers fall, so you can adjust where necessary.

Jene,

When I see generic lists of IDPs it doesn't provide much help unless I know the scoring system that the lists are based off of so could you please post the scoring system you are basing these rankings off of?

It really helps to know the scoring system because rankings of players can vary significantly even with minor adjustments in how a league awards IDP points.

Also many people like to see trends of players, if the points are trending up/down over the last two or three years or how a change in a defensive system or coaches impacts actual IDP points scored. Basically rankings are nice but cold hard points are the true measure so we need to know what scoring system you use to base your rankings on.

Hoping the write up provides a lot of that. Increased playing time, impact of the other 10 players, scheme, and role changes should be key.

The articles will have as much context as I can fit into a one line blurb at minimum. Some general thoughts will accompany each tier, too.

 

[msommer]

Jene how come Anthony Barr is no longer at least a watch list guy?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene how come Anthony Barr is no longer at least a watch list guy?

Thanks. He's a cut and paste error and belongs in the LB3 tier. I have him in the high floor LB3 tier, but I think he may fit into the upside LB3 tier. I'll look at him again.

 

[Crippler]

Jon Bostic to me seemed way too high. I take alot of guys after him way faster. Has not done much to deserve ranking and seems a few tiers too high.

Paul Worrilow is a guy who is situation based over talent base also. If Atlanta drafted a good LB, Weaherspoon is back or Shembo is year 2 learns the game better, he is a guy that will drop like a stone in value. Not someone I would want. I know he scores well but hsi talent is really lacking.

Jerry Hughes at DE is another guy I would be worried about and would leave alone. If he stays in Buffalo he could be moved to LB and that kills his value. And if he goes somewhere else, he could go back to what he was before hand. Got to wonder about these 1 year guys and thus I would not touch him. Let me wait and hope Orakapo, Sheard or MOrgan goes to 4-3 instead and grab them way later down the line.

 

[Crippler]

I wonder why you dont a Defensive SL since the contest went by the way side. Might be very helpful at this time of the year for getting a better grip on players. The WSL's seem to achieve this I would say

If you could get some staff on board like Jene and Norton, than the competition of competing might bring out the best of the posters in attempts to win even if just for bragging rights. Maybe not as many SL's as the O wants but one post combine and one post draft might be very useful. They are free to do in MFL who even scores them.

 

[GridironMenace]

Jon Bostic to me seemed way too high. I take alot of guys after him way faster. Has not done much to deserve ranking and seems a few tiers too high.

For sure. He isn't going to do well as an ILB in their new 3-4. LB4 most likely.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Jene,

When I see generic lists of IDPs it doesn't provide much help unless I know the scoring system that the lists are based off of so could you please post the scoring system you are basing these rankings off of?

It really helps to know the scoring system because rankings of players can vary significantly even with minor adjustments in how a league awards IDP points.

Also many people like to see trends of players, if the points are trending up/down over the last two or three years or how a change in a defensive system or coaches impacts actual IDP points scored. Basically rankings are nice but cold hard points are the true measure so we need to know what scoring system you use to base your rankings on.

Always a balanced system, which for me includes any system where sacks are worth between 2.5 and 4.5x the value of a solo tackle. The tiers note where the big play tiers fall, so you can adjust where necessary.

The reason I mention this is because every IDP site puts out lists of top IDP players and I compare them to my long standing league and the lists make no sense based on our scoring. The reason is because our league saw a flaw in how the NFL awards assisted tackles so some guys were scoring outrageous points for assisted tackles and others weren't and it was based on capricious NFL stadium scorers. Some stat crews award significantly higher assists and others ridiculously low assisted tackles.

This issue of unfair awarding of assisted tackles has been a thorn in the side of the IDP community for a long time so we decided to downplay that stat so this is how we adjusted our tackle point system.

Solo - 1 pt.

Assist - 0 pts.

every five combined tackles - 1 pt.

If the IDP community had a standard scoring system, one that somehow made an adjustment to note how inconsistent assisted tackles were awarded, then I think IDP leagues would be more accessible to the greater fantasy community and lists would become much more valuable.

Right now I look at IDP lists but have to adjust to fit our system and I'm sure everyone does the same thing.

Basically my comment is I think the IDP community needs some sort of basic baseline standardized scoring system because lists of top scorers change radically with even minor scoring adjustments making many lists, not worthless but unwieldy to say the least. Its not even Fahrenheit Celsius where it is the same temperature but its called by a different name. The conversion of lists to points to different scoring systems isn't an algebraic formula.

List conversions do not work unless their is a standard baseline scoring system that every league can plug into their league scoring system.

Correct me if I'm wrong but that seems to be the issue, no IDP standardized scoring system to base lists ranking IDP players on.

 

[Crippler]

Jon Bostic to me seemed way too high. I take alot of guys after him way faster. Has not done much to deserve ranking and seems a few tiers too high.

For sure. He isn't going to do well as an ILB in their new 3-4. LB4 most likely.

Bears | Chicago may pursue David Harris Fri Feb 20, 04:51 PM

New York Jets impending free-agent LB David Harris is expected to receive interest from the Chicago Bears if he hits the free-agent market, according to a source.

I think this shows alot about Bostic. He is not that good.

 

[Jene Bramel]

DL Tiers (First Update) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_defensive_line_tiers_initial2015

 

[King for a Day]

Jene, thanks for all your hard work. After reading the early DL Tiers I wondered whether Eagles DL Vinny Curry came into consideration for a Dynasty Stash spot? Thanks in advance for your time.

 

[JoeSteeler]

:sehorn:

 

[Jene Bramel]

I wondered whether Eagles DL Vinny Curry came into consideration for a Dynasty Stash spot? Thanks in advance for your time.

I can't get DL in my head when thinking about Curry despite his classification.

If he gets more snaps, I think they'll come in the base as a linebacker. If the classification doesn't change, that's matchup DL3+ territory. If he gets more snaps at DE in this scheme, I don't think his value will go up at all. That's not a great fit for him.

 

[Arnold. S]

Hi Jene, curious about Desmond Bryant, where would you have him?

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

Does Robert Ayers get dropped from the Redraft Watch List tier now that JPP was franchise tagged?

 

[MTskibum]

What is the chance that Brandon Marshall stays in an every down role?

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

Gene, no Gerald Hodges?

 

[Jene Bramel]

First set of LB tiers went live on March 4 (also linked in first post) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_linebacker_tiers_initial2015

 

[Jene Bramel]

Hi Jene, curious about Desmond Bryant, where would you have him?

Replacement level DE, on the watch list to add as matchup play or bye week replacement.

Does Robert Ayers get dropped from the Redraft Watch List tier now that JPP was franchise tagged?

No, I still think there's a chance he'll see 750 snaps with Mathias Kiwanuka gone. He's obviously not as high a priority with Pierre-Paul firmly on the depth chart again.

What is the chance that Brandon Marshall stays in an every down role?

Very good chance right now. I think he fits Phillips' scheme well and I haven't heard anything strongly positive on Lamin Barrow or any other ILB deeper on the depth chart yet.

Gene, no Gerald Hodges?

He's behind Chad Greenway and Anthony Barr on the OLB depth chart in Minnesota. He's a priority add whenever there's an injury, but he's a reserve for the Vikings if everyone is healthy.

 

[saintfool]

First set of LB tiers went live on March 4 (also linked in first post) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_linebacker_tiers_initial2015

One very minor update, Dr Jene, regarding ATL Shembo. It looks like they want him as OLB insetad of ILB now. Quinn spoke about this at the Combine:

INDIANAPOLIS — Falcons linebacker Prince Shembo is being moved to outside linebacker after playing inside linebacker last season.

“Right now, I see him working back outside,” Falcons coach Dan Quinn said on Thursday. “I’m looking forward to working with him. We evaluated him as an inside linebacker from the tape."

Not sure how much it changes his value, honestly, but it makes sense. He was obviously more comfortable on the edges.

 

[jonboltz]

First set of LB tiers went live on March 4 (also linked in first post) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_linebacker_tiers_initial2015

Am I the only one that likes Bradham a lot more than Preston Brown?

 

[5-ish Finkle]

First set of LB tiers went live on March 4 (also linked in first post) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=15bramel_linebacker_tiers_initial2015

Am I the only one that likes Bradham a lot more than Preston Brown?

I wouldn't say I like him "a lot" more, necessarily, but I certainly like him just as much. Think he's getting devalued a bit too much.

 

[Mike63]

Am I missing something or Mario Williams isn't included in any list on the online articles?

 

[buck56]

Am I missing something or Mario Williams isn't included in any list on the online articles?

It is assumed that he willl be switched to OLB...thus diminishing his value greatly.

 

[Bojang0301]

Will McPhee be a DE?

 

[Shane Falco]

Will McPhee be a DE?

Fangio is in Chi and I think they are going to a 3-4 which would make McPhee a LB again.

 

[Mike63]

Am I missing something or Mario Williams isn't included in any list on the online articles?

It is assumed that he willl be switched to OLB...thus diminishing his value greatly.

Not even worthy of the matchup rush LB tier?