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2017 Raiders - how's the 2018 draft looking? (1 Viewer)

Some quick observations about the Cowboy game:

I always thought the ball had to extend beyond the pole of the yard sticks to be a first down. I think that was a major blown call.

They finally started using Lynch more. Too little; too late.

The defense prolly played their best game of the year. Where did that come from? Maybe Pagano is making a different.

Very sad state of affairs when you get out coached by Jason Garrett. 

Speaking of coaching, the Raiders put the ball on the ground 3 times last night and were very fortunate none resulted in a TO. And WTH is Roberts doing carrying the ball like a loaf of bread in a area full of defenders? It is details like these that get coaches fired. 
This was my first thought after the fake punt.  The Cowboys coaches obviously saw something on tape that they knew they could exploit.

 
I hate thinking like this, but it might be better if the Raiders get embarrassed the last two weeks.  If that was the tipping point in firing JDR I'd be ok with it.

 
What a gut punch of a game. Steratore's smirking face will haunt my nightmares until we have a new coaching staff that uses this team's talents effectively. I don't know how many times I can listen to everyone from fans to the bloody announcers on TV comment on how vanilla, predictable, and inexplicably unchanging our offensive game plan is.
I had to laugh when Lee was calling out the plays before the snap. 

 
Some quick observations about the Cowboy game:

I always thought the ball had to extend beyond the pole of the yard sticks to be a first down. I think that was a major blown call.

They finally started using Lynch more. Too little; too late.

The defense prolly played their best game of the year. Where did that come from? Maybe Pagano is making a different.

Very sad state of affairs when you get out coached by Jason Garrett. 

Speaking of coaching, the Raiders put the ball on the ground 3 times last night and were very fortunate none resulted in a TO. And WTH is Roberts doing carrying the ball like a loaf of bread in a area full of defenders? It is details like these that get coaches fired. 
Has he learned/been taught nothing after last time....

 
How in the world are Penn and Osemele Pro Bowlers this season?

It just demonstrates how meaningless a Pro Bowl spot truly is.

 
Carr is not the problem.
I think Carr IS the problem. He makes the most money. More important, he plays the most critical position. Right now, Garoppolo looks like the best QB in the Bay Area and while that's not an indictment of Carr, it's still a pretty telling statement.
Sure, there's been a TREMENDOUS amount of drops by the receivers but Carr has had a lot of potential interceptions dropped; he probably could have had 15-20 picks by now so I think the two kinda cancel each other out.
Yes, Downing has been bad but this is why I think Carr's the problem and why the offensive line also bears a large brunt of the blame as well: If Downing had the 2016 version of Derek Carr and his line, he wouldn't look so awful. And if Carr and the line had played like it was 2016, the defense wouldn't be on the field so much and look as bad as it has. There's been way too many three and outs this year. The Raiders rank 27th in the league in that category. They were in the top half of the league last year (13th).
Question: If this was the 2016 Carr version or close to it, what would the Raiders record be? I think they'd be good for three more wins--at Denver (lost 16-10), vs. Chargers (lost 17-16), vs. Dallas. On the flip side, maybe they lose the first KC game with another QB other than Carr. So they should be 8-6 and right in the playoff hunt.
This video breaks down in a nutshell how bad Carr has been. It opens with a few stats, then cuts to how bad Osemeli has been. Carr's problems start up at about 2:30. It starts bad and it only gets worse--my grandma could have completed that flip pass to Washington at 5:10 and she's dead.
My thots don't really take into account Carr's injuries. Maybe that's the problem. I guess we'll find out next year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o78TnmjGMVs

Merry Christmas to all!!!

 
Carr is not the problem.
I agree. To @Ed Wood‘s point, I think Carr’s busted back is a reason why his mechanics have been a little off in terms of the badly targeted/wobbly throws, and why he’s been a little gunshy.

But we’ve seen what Carr can do and be, and have a hard time believing he won’t be that again.

I place way more blame on the playcalling - uninspired and unchanging, with plays designed to get the ball out of Carr’s hands as quickly as possible.

We’ll see.

 
Carr is not the problem.
I'll put it this way.....Carr is not THE problem, but he definitely has been part of the problem this year.  He has had a pretty bad season.  He has been very tentative to throw the ball down the field and horrible vs pressure.  I still think he is a franchise QB though and is part of the solution.  

 
No excuses for Carr next year. He wouldn't be the first QB to have a big season then never repeat it again. Once DCs figure out your tendencies you adapt or die. I like Carr but I'm not absolutely convinced he is a rock solid stud. I certainly hope he is. We'll see.

 
I agree. To @Ed Wood‘s point, I think Carr’s busted back is a reason why his mechanics have been a little off in terms of the badly targeted/wobbly throws, and why he’s been a little gunshy.

But we’ve seen what Carr can do and be, and have a hard time believing he won’t be that again.

I place way more blame on the playcalling - uninspired and unchanging, with plays designed to get the ball out of Carr’s hands as quickly as possible.

We’ll see.
Are the plays designed to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible or is he choosing to do so?
Maybe it IS his back. But he was very bad the six quarters prior to the injury (full game against Wash and a half against Denver).
He was lights out against KC, three games after the injury. Then he was terrible against KC, eight games after the injury.
Shouldn't he be healed up by now?
It's kinda scary to me Carr thinks he's a better player this year than last:
“So do I feel like I’m a better player today than I was a year ago, last year? Absolutely. I definitely do. But, there’s definitely decisions and things that can be made that would be better for our team.”

 
No excuses for Carr next year. He wouldn't be the first QB to have a big season then never repeat it again. Once DCs figure out your tendencies you adapt or die. I like Carr but I'm not absolutely convinced he is a rock solid stud. I certainly hope he is. We'll see.
Great points. I thot he was a top 5 QB after last year. I'm not sure he's even top 15 now.
This my 50th year following the Raiders. Here's my one-word description for the quality QBs the Raiders have had during that time:
Lamonica--risk-taker
Stabler--unflappable
Plunkett--workmanlike
Gannon--precise
Carr--skittish

I'm wondering if Carr's ceiling now isn't Marc Wilson. Yikes!

I guess LawFitz and I see the glass as half empty. Stompin' Tom Connors and Chaka see it as half full. :D

 
Great points. I thot he was a top 5 QB after last year. I'm not sure he's even top 15 now.
This my 50th year following the Raiders. Here's my one-word description for the quality QBs the Raiders have had during that time:
Lamonica--risk-taker
Stabler--unflappable
Plunkett--workmanlike
Gannon--precise
Carr--skittish

I'm wondering if Carr's ceiling now isn't Marc Wilson. Yikes!

I guess LawFitz and I see the glass as half empty. Stompin' Tom Connors and Chaka see it as half full. :D
Did you think Carr looked skittish last season? I sure didn't, and I honestly think you'd be hard pressed to show that's his default tendency. So not sure that label is justified for his career. For this season, absolutely.

I think LawFitz has a point about DCs figuring out tendencies and needing to adapt. I don't think Carr is alone to blame for that -- again, I put the blame mostly on the coaching staff for not shaking it up.

I will always be unabashedly glass half full when it comes to the Raiders no matter how bad the team has been, or how much I rail against staff or any given players. I will always bleed Silver and Black.

 
I reserve full judgment of Carr until he gets a real coaching staff. Sadly, if JDR comes back next year, he could set Carr back even further. Look no further than Jared no longer a Goof and Blake Borders for evidence of coaching effect.

Merry Xmas, Raider brethren.

 
Great points. I thot he was a top 5 QB after last year. I'm not sure he's even top 15 now.
 
I would like to see the 14 QBs you consider better then Carr.

A lot of over reaction in here lately. If everyone does their damn job—the line blocks, the receivers catch, and coaches coach—Carr is more than capable of playing winning football.

 
I hate Todd Downing.

Abject hate.

I hope he never coaches on any level for the rest of his life.

Merry Christmas.

 
If the raiders could draft/sign any person for next year, then for me it’s sing Chucky and bring him back.
I don't know. Gruden was great and Al Davis ####ed dishing him but I am not convinced he can come back and pull a Vermeil. He's been playing the PC "Everyone is the best ever!" game for a long time now, I'm not certain he can just step in and recapture the intensity that made him as great as he was.

Still, Gruden is better than JDR. Of course so is my toe jam.

 
LawFitz said:
I reserve full judgment of Carr until he gets a real coaching staff. Sadly, if JDR comes back next year, he could set Carr back even further. Look no further than Jared no longer a Goof and Blake Borders for evidence of coaching effect.

Merry Xmas, Raider brethren.
It’d be nice if he wasn’t playing with a broken back as well. 

 
Carr is absolutely part of the problem.  He's regressed badly.  His 2nd year he had a big tendency to panic in clean pockets and check down or dump off at the hint of pressure instead of letting the play develop.  I don't recall where I saw it but there were a bunch of examples where a defender's hand would flash or he'd get a slight penetration but the OL would handle it, but Carr's already gone and dumping it off by the time that happens.  Meanwhile the downfield route is breaking open.  There's been a lot of that again this year.  Certainly the injury is part of it, and perhaps the play calling isn't helping, but this isn't 100% the Dowling #### show we're seeing.  Derrick Carr is definitely making it worse for his first year coach.

I don't want to see Dowling canned by himself.  Carr needs consistency in system and bringing in someone new means he has to learn another offense.  If we were to fire JDR and Dowling were collateral damage I could live with that, but aside from that I don't think it's the right thing to fire the guy after one year.

 
What are the homers thoughts on the RB situation if Lynch doesn’t return?

RBBC between Richard/Washington or perhaps a FA or rookie draft pick?

Just wondering from a fantasy standpoint if it’s worth it to pick up Richard, Washington, both or neither.

 
Carr is a major problem.  He looks awful, even  when he has a clean pocket.  The wheels have come off.  Hopefully, he can peace it back together

 
Carr has regressed, the Oline (slightly overrated to begin with IMO) has regressed, Cooper, Crabs and Richard all regressed. Cook has been ok (like he's always been)Walford hasn't developed as hoped. Roberts has always been shakey at best but at least last year he made some great plays, which this year has been non-existent.  Dowling's playcalling has been horrible, Lynch has been under used and predictable. Bottom line, the whole offense has been a $%#@show this year. The only bright spot has been Patterson. 

That said, I have faith Carr will figure it out. Not sure what the problem is but I tend to lean towards a combination of poor Oline play (especally RT), drops, play calling and teams scouting Carr better and exploiting his weaknesses. He's still young, most QBs don't peak until they hit their early 30s. He's got time and the desire to work on his issues, I hope...

 
What are the homers thoughts on the RB situation if Lynch doesn’t return?

RBBC between Richard/Washington or perhaps a FA or rookie draft pick?

Just wondering from a fantasy standpoint if it’s worth it to pick up Richard, Washington, both or neither.
I'd say neither. If they thought that highly of either as a feature type back, Lynch wouldn't have been brought in after a year off IMO. If not Lynch in 2018, probably draft pick or Hyde/Hill type that'll leave them in the same type situation they're in now.  Not to mention it wouldn't be shocking if staff was changed with the Musgrave debacle.

 
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Did you think Carr looked skittish last season? I sure didn't, and I honestly think you'd be hard pressed to show that's his default tendency. So not sure that label is justified for his career. For this season, absolutely.
Last year, absolutely not "skittish." Definitely a label for this year only. Overall label would be "?" And that would go for his "default tendency." What is it? Your guess is as good as mine. Far from clear at this point.

 
Carr is absolutely part of the problem.  He's regressed badly.  His 2nd year he had a big tendency to panic in clean pockets and check down or dump off at the hint of pressure instead of letting the play develop.  I don't recall where I saw it but there were a bunch of examples where a defender's hand would flash or he'd get a slight penetration but the OL would handle it, but Carr's already gone and dumping it off by the time that happens.  Meanwhile the downfield route is breaking open.  There's been a lot of that again this year.  Certainly the injury is part of it, and perhaps the play calling isn't helping, but this isn't 100% the Dowling #### show we're seeing.  Derrick Carr is definitely making it worse for his first year coach.

I don't want to see Dowling canned by himself.  Carr needs consistency in system and bringing in someone new means he has to learn another offense.  If we were to fire JDR and Dowling were collateral damage I could live with that, but aside from that I don't think it's the right thing to fire the guy after one year.
Unless we can get musgrave back

 
No argument that Carr regressed and bares some responsibilty for the disappointing season. A large part, if not all of his regression is physical and very correctable. His biggest problem is he is throws off his back foot. This could be due to not trusting the pocket to hold up. Another thing I noticed is he isn’t squaring his shoulders on some throws. All this is corrected with coaching.

The oline just has not played up to their salary. Gabe Jackson was horrid vs the Eagles. His play has been so poor that they replaced him with Falecino at one point. I think they need to revisit that contract. The 10 million they are paying can be better served elsewhere. Newhouse cannot run block. He constantly allows penetration, making asustained running game impossible. One positive is that Sharpe seemed to hold his own at LT, so maybe he is part of the solution. I have to wonder if some of these issues aren’t do to coaching. Has Tice lost the oline?

The defense has played very well the past two weeks, and has shown improvement since Norton’s dismissal. I see more libe stunts and QB pressures. Ward has started to flash and Vandeross is making some noise. Due this pressure the team is starting to get INTs, and it is covering the deficiencies in the secondary. This is why I have been advocating another pass rush end. A strong pass rush will mask a lot of covrage issues. 

While a lot of folks have been advocating they focus on defense in the draft I think they need to get Carr some support. Foremost is getting a dynamic RB. They should not go into next season with a 31 yo starting RB and two slappies behind him. They need a RT. Newhouse is a backup. (They should have kept Howard.) Maybe they can move Sharpe to RT to address this issue? They also need to upgrade the receiving core. They need another playmaker at WR or TE.

At this point they look to be picking in the top third of the draft. Most mocks have them taking the Georgia LB or the FL St safety. I would be fine with either, but what if Barkley was available when they pick? I don’t think he will last that long, I am only trying to make a point. It is likely there will be very good RBs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Love, Penny, Chubb should be strong considerations at one of those picks.

I am torn on JDR. He hasn’t lost the team. They still appear to be playing hard. They seem to have gotten the defense headed in the right direction. I think there will be some solid veteran coaches for hire as OC this offseason. I think he will make wholesale changes in the offensive staff and get another year. I think the only way they fire JDR is if Gruden agrees to take the job ——> long shot.

 
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I would like to see the 14 QBs you consider better then Carr.

A lot of over reaction in here lately. If everyone does their damn job—the line blocks, the receivers catch, and coaches coach—Carr is more than capable of playing winning football.
I admit I grabbed that number out of thin air but I chuckled when I saw Carr is rated No. 15 this year among QBs.

QBs clearly better IMO: Brady, Ben, Rivers, Stafford, Brees, Smith, Cousins, Wilson, Wentz, Rodgers.

Better than Carr: Ryan.

I'd trade Carr for Cam. I'd trade Carr for Goff. I'd trade Carr for Watson.

That's 14.

And (he said very quietly): I'd trade Carr for Garapollo. I think he's gonna be better than Carr. He looks the part of a QB...like Carr looked last year.

But you're right...a lot of this is overreaction. There was overreaction to how well Carr played last year. Now there's overreaction to how poorly he's played. But he's not making it easy for us to have a rationale reaction. He's all over the place. He's the bipolar disorder QB--you don't know what you're gonna get from him from one game to the next; heck, sometimes from one pass to the next.

 
I think you are over reacting. If I had told you last summer that Goff is better than Carr I am very certain you would have taken issue with it. It is ok to vent but don't be reactionary. As I said in my last post most of Carr's issues are physical and correctable. I say Carr will return to form and be a top 12 QB next year. 

 
I agree. To @Ed Wood‘s point, I think Carr’s busted back is a reason why his mechanics have been a little off in terms of the badly targeted/wobbly throws, and why he’s been a little gunshy.

But we’ve seen what Carr can do and be, and have a hard time believing he won’t be that again.

I place way more blame on the playcalling - uninspired and unchanging, with plays designed to get the ball out of Carr’s hands as quickly as possible.

We’ll see.
Some of those designed plays are just plain bad. Heck you have more then one WR and/or TE running the same routes on the same play getting in each others way. I saw this several times this year. The coaching and scheme on the offensive side of the ball has been awful.

On a bright note since Pagano has taken over the Raiders defense looks light years better then it did under Norton in the beginning of the season.

Here are some numbers since Pagano has taken over:

Evert Geerlings‏@E_Geerlings

Since Week 12, the Raiders defense ranks in the Top-5 in:

Opponent QBR - 33.1 (2nd)
3rd Down Conversion % - 27.7% (3rd)
Yards/Play - 4.63 avg. (4th)
Total Yards/Game - 287.0 avg (5th)
Pass Yards/Game - 189.0 avg. (5th)
1st Downs/Game - 16.6 (5th)
Sacks - 16 (T-5th)

Austin Gayle
@AustinGayle_PFF
#Raiders CB Sean Smith played 40 coverage snaps against PHI and wasn't targeted once. 

He ranks 14th in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.49) and 7th in passer rating allowed (29.8) among the 103 CBs with 38+ coverage snaps in the last three weeks.

Austin Gayle‏ 
@AustinGayle_PFF
BIG NOTE: #Raiders ED Bruce Irvin played 17.42% (!!) of his defensive snaps in coverage in Weeks 1-11 (KNJ). In Weeks 12-15 (Pagano), Irvin has dropped back into coverage on just 6.73% of his defensive snaps. 

Rush the passer with your pass-rushers... Bold.

Scott Bair‏Verified account 
@BairNBCS
Bruce Irvin spent 20 snaps in pass coverage vs New England, per @PFF. He has 14 coverage snaps (and 5 sacks) in the four games since.

Austin Gayle‏ 
@AustinGayle_PFF
BIG NOTE: In Weeks 1-11, the #Raiders' defense recorded pressures on 39% of passing 3rd downs, which ranked 20th in the NFL. 

In Weeks 12-15, OAK's defense has recorded pressures on 47.8% of passing 3rd downs to rank 6th in the NFL.

Josh Dubow‏Verified account 
@JoshDubowAP
#Raiders ranks on D under Norton vs Pagano:
Passer rating: 113.3, 32nd vs 75.9, 8th
Sacks: 14, T31st vs 14, T4th
yds/att: 8.0, 30th vs 6.8, 14th
INT: 0, 32nd vs 4, T9th

 
krsone21 said:
Some of those designed plays are just plain bad. Heck you have more then one WR and/or TE running the same routes on the same play getting in each others way. I saw this several times this year. The coaching and scheme on the offensive side of the ball has been awful.

On a bright note since Pagano has taken over the Raiders defense looks light years better then it did under Norton in the beginning of the season.

Here are some numbers since Pagano has taken over:

Evert Geerlings‏@E_Geerlings

Since Week 12, the Raiders defense ranks in the Top-5 in:

Opponent QBR - 33.1 (2nd)
3rd Down Conversion % - 27.7% (3rd)
Yards/Play - 4.63 avg. (4th)
Total Yards/Game - 287.0 avg (5th)
Pass Yards/Game - 189.0 avg. (5th)
1st Downs/Game - 16.6 (5th)
Sacks - 16 (T-5th)

Austin Gayle
@AustinGayle_PFF
#Raiders CB Sean Smith played 40 coverage snaps against PHI and wasn't targeted once. 

He ranks 14th in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.49) and 7th in passer rating allowed (29.8) among the 103 CBs with 38+ coverage snaps in the last three weeks.

Austin Gayle‏ 
@AustinGayle_PFF
BIG NOTE: #Raiders ED Bruce Irvin played 17.42% (!!) of his defensive snaps in coverage in Weeks 1-11 (KNJ). In Weeks 12-15 (Pagano), Irvin has dropped back into coverage on just 6.73% of his defensive snaps. 

Rush the passer with your pass-rushers... Bold.

Scott Bair‏Verified account 
@BairNBCS
Bruce Irvin spent 20 snaps in pass coverage vs New England, per @PFF. He has 14 coverage snaps (and 5 sacks) in the four games since.

Austin Gayle‏ 
@AustinGayle_PFF
BIG NOTE: In Weeks 1-11, the #Raiders' defense recorded pressures on 39% of passing 3rd downs, which ranked 20th in the NFL. 

In Weeks 12-15, OAK's defense has recorded pressures on 47.8% of passing 3rd downs to rank 6th in the NFL.

Josh Dubow‏Verified account 
@JoshDubowAP
#Raiders ranks on D under Norton vs Pagano:
Passer rating: 113.3, 32nd vs 75.9, 8th
Sacks: 14, T31st vs 14, T4th
yds/att: 8.0, 30th vs 6.8, 14th
INT: 0, 32nd vs 4, T9th
Thanks for posting this. The Raiders D has looked much better since they canned KNJ. If there's anything I personally learned this year, is that defensive scheme is just as, if not, more important than the talent a team puts on the field. 

 
JDR will back next year so we have to hope that a new OC is found that can put a dynamic O on the field.   It really is necessary   

Carr had a rough season.   There is no way to sugar coat it.   He didn't get a lot of help from the game plan, Oline, or receivers but he certainly looked off most of the season.   He isn't going anywhere since great NFL QBs are tough to find.   Let's stick with our better-than-average QB that has flashed greatness and continue to build a team around him.  

 
I've been saying all year I thought they had a lot more talent defensively than we've played to and am glad to see Pagano getting more out of that now.

 
I've been saying all year I thought they had a lot more talent defensively than we've played to and am glad to see Pagano getting more out of that now.
That secondary is a struggle though.   Health didn't help this season and some young players will go into the 2018 season lacking experience because of health issues too 

 
Scott Winter@Scott_WinterNFL
With Todd Downing very likely out the door next week, hearing some Norv Turner buzz. That is if Jack Del Rio is still HC. Mark Davis is very unhappy, however Del Rio probably gets another year based on Defense really stepping up under Pagano.

 
Scott Winter@Scott_WinterNFL
With Todd Downing very likely out the door next week, hearing some Norv Turner buzz. That is if Jack Del Rio is still HC. Mark Davis is very unhappy, however Del Rio probably gets another year based on Defense really stepping up under Pagano.
Pagano got some life out of the D. I would be willing to keep him at DC.

I think we have to look at what potential options are at HC. I am not sold on Del Rio but I also don't think he has to go regardless of who is available. If we did keep him, I would be willing to bring Turner on board as OC. He is poo for a HC but most of his stops at OC have been successful. I will give the last two some grace because the Browns ('nuff said) and the Vikings just smelled of a bad situation for whatever reason.

 
Just an FYI - Leaked info suggest Raiders will be playing in London next season on November 11 against LA - but no indication whether it is the Rams or Chargers.

NFL update from another source and a handbook which THFC have sent out to corporate tickets holders;

- Strong rumours, and a leaked PDF, which shows Raiders v LA at 11 November 2018 at NWHL. Interestingly that’s the only game scheduled next year at NWHL. 


NWHL - is the new stadium for Tottenham Hotspur expected to be complete in August/September 2018 - NFL has a deal for 2 games per year for 10 years.  If the NFL puts a team in London, this would be the home stadium.  It is being built as a dual-use stadium, with a retractable grass field for use by Spurs, and an artificial surface field, that is lower for better sight-lines, will be used by the NFL.  The stadium also has built in NFL-specific locker-rooms (larger than typical UK stadiums), separate from the soccer locker-rooms.

 
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Just an FYI - Leaked info suggest Raiders will be playing in London next season on November 11 against LA - but no indication whether it is the Rams or Chargers.

NWHL - is the new stadium for Tottenham Hotspur expected to be complete in August/September 2018 - NFL has a deal for 2 games per year for 10 years.  If the NFL puts a team in London, this would be the home stadium.  It is being built as a dual-use stadium, with a retractable grass field for use by Spurs, and an artificial surface field, that is lower for better sight-lines, will be used by the NFL.  The stadium also has built in NFL-specific locker-rooms (larger than typical UK stadiums), separate from the soccer locker-rooms.
Plan B for the Chargers?

L.A. is not going to support them. Maybe they realize that now?

 
Not this again. My understanding is that Gruden has a son with a year of high school remaining and he wants to be there for his son's graduation. Given that restriction the only job that he may have taken was the Tampa job. I also heard Pat Kirwin again say that Gruden isn't coming back. He likes the idea of coaching but he has built up a nice little empire that he will not jeopardize. 

 

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