TZMarkie
Footballguy
Each year, I have a pad and pen, and jot down notes all along the fantasy season. Sure, I remember the players and many intricacies enough, but writing down small things......AT LEAST FOR ME helps to reinforce certain points for the following fantasy year.
You would be surprised when you do this, and you look back during the following year , how often if you violate your own "rules" preseason so to speak, how often it comes back to haunt you.
Many of us as the new season approaches, tend to forget the bitterness of being stung by an injured player (we swore we would never draft again)...... or simple things like "drafting a QB early", "drafting a TE early", or any one of a number of rules or concepts that many of us have. We often try to stick to them, but sometimes we get sucked back in to the hype, and time after time we get burned. Going back to the well on high injury-risk players is a big one, and most often its running backs.
I thought it was important to write this while this season is still going on , as its so many things still fresh in our minds, that may not be lingering there in a couple months. We might tend to forget many things that helped us along the way, especially if we have successful seasons and possibly win championships. Think about it, the winner usually tells himself "I won, so I had a great season, my skill this year was a tad better than the others", or whatever it is the average guy tells himself when he wins.
I on the other hand, like to think back in my successful seasons AS WELL AS MY BAD SEASONS , because I think you can learn just as much in your winning seasons, as you can in your poor ones.
This is something, that we can use to our advantage, as the next season approaches. This can be general fantasy concepts, or even many specific cases or players to target/avoid next year. Months from now we can look this back over, and read things we swore we would do in next years drafts. (It also may be entertaining to read, even if its something not quite as "helpful", because no doubt there will be many situations and backfields that change drastically.)
I could write close to an endless list, but here are 5 things I will use and remember next year if I can.
IN 2018 I VOW TO TRY TO -
#1 - STAY AWAY FROM THE CLEVELAND BROWNS BACKFIELD - (The addendum should be "until there is proof/or a track record of a competent running game") This is literally every year, one of the big RB stories heading into the season. Typically its "there is going to be great value in the Cleveland backfield", but this year it was just all out hype, and O-Line praise. This past offseason, I got "sucked in" to the hype yet again. I told myself like everyone did..."That line will be the best in football, Crowell should give you at least strong RB2 #s etc. etc". Horse####. This is literally like the 4th year in a row, possibly 5, I talked myself into drafting a Browns RB early, and Crowell was just a cancer. I actually traded for Crowell after week 2 in one league, figuring the workload would at least make him a low end RB2. Well, finally before the week 8 Sunday I dropped him. Until that point he had 78 carries, and not even had broken 9 fantasy points in fantasy in any week. (Owners should know the story - that week was a London game, vs a stout MINNESOTA defense. It was an easy cut, then he promptly got his first TD of the year.)
All that Crowell and situation BS aside, had I just not traded for him and avoided it completely, I may have had a far easier season in the 2 leagues I had Crowell in. Maybe next year I will finally "JUST SAY NO!" and stay away from that scenario altogether. (Now, I want to state, our leagues are start 3WRs, and I tend to go WR-WR early in drafts if I can, and get by on "RB2-ish type backs". Those type value backs and scenarios are how I often get by, Cleveland has just been a notoriously bad RB scenario the last few years)
#2 - CONTINUE TO STAY AWAY FROM "INJURY RISK" or "OLD" PLAYERS - Several players I swore off last year were - AARON RODGERS, JORDY NELSON and KEENAN ALLEN. These are in fact good examples, because they go both ways on my draft day decisions. When word came out that AARON RODGERS was training with a "Hollywood trainer" in the offseason,(and was opting to train on his own, and away from team facilities and early activities there) I told my buddy "I want absolutely nothing to do with Aaron Rodgers, I bet he gets injured at some point." Many other small rumors came out, his breakup with Olivia Munn "affected him", he was supposedly leading more of a "Hollywood lifestyle", and he was even "neglecting his family" in that sense, never calling them , not giving them tickets to games, I remember reading all sorts of wild things. (and I generally don't care about players personal lives if I can help it...but a buddy showed me a few links preseason, as he is a fan of Rodgers, and wanted my opinion) Anyway, the point is, I am not saying "I'm right" about Rodgers because he got injured. But the few times he has been injured, all the "gossip" in the preseason, and a few other small things just soured me on his situation. He is good when he is rolling, but the risk is just too great for me now, there is just too many other factors making me steer clear of him. Case #2 is JORDY NELSON - I went on record and told several friends of mine, "I want nothing to do with Jordy Nelson" this year either. This time, it is the many injuries he has been through, and the biggest part of why I wanted no parts of him this year, is many times last year he looked like he had lost a step.... especially early in the season. Another case where all the small things, plus age and he looked to be dropping off last season, well that all saved me a massive headache this year. Case #3 is KEENAN ALLEN . Another one plagued by many injuries, and several seemed to be very flukey, I vowed to steer clear of his this year. Well, this time it "backfired" if you want to call it that. He has had a great season, in particular a 4-5 week stretch up until last week. (He didn't really have a great October though) Point is, we all make calls. We all make choices in drafts, and try and stay away from certain players. Over the last 5 + years, it has worked out pretty well for me, when I decide to avoid certain players, it generally is a wise move. (Often it takes a multitude of issues or things to happen for me to put them on my "avoid list", its not just a personal thing) Call it a gut call, or whatever you want to say, this "avoid list" has generally been the right decision for me personally, the last number of years. I already have a list of guys I am steering clear of next year, and you should at least mentally make a list and follow it too. (Yes, Rodgers and Nelson and Keenan Allen will all be on my "do NOT draft list" going into next year) There are other notables, but for a variety of reasons DEMARYIUS THOMAS is now on my list. ODELL BECKHAM JR. is borderline/close to my list as well, and is likely to be another I avoid next year.
#3 - ACT QUICKER WHEN A STARTER IS "UNDERPERFORMING/NON-PERFORMING" - I call this the "silent killer" in fantasy. Continuously rolling out a big name player, even after he is slowly sucking the life out of your team, week in and week out with abysmal production. I have always been guilty of "sticking with" a stud player, even when its starting to become apparent he should be benched. This season, I have been fortunate and had success (deep playoff runs) in 3/4 of my leagues. But one player I was high on this year was MARCUS MARIOTA. In fact I drafted Mariota in 3 of my 4 leagues, and the only reason I didn't nab him in the last league, was I just wanted to diversify a bit and not be tied to him in every league . In all of my leagues I consider a "success" this year, I acted and benched Mariota (and others) when it just wasn't working early on.In fact I benched him after week 2, in 2 leagues. I stuck with him for TOO LONG in one though, and you guessed it.......thats the one league where I didn't make the playoffs. As it turns out, I likely wouldn't have made the playoffs had I benched him sooner there in that league anyway, as there were also other big name players that should have likely been benched sooner than I did. This is a concept I have always struggled with, and I suspect it bothers many , "knowledgeable" fantasy players. Just when should you take a guy out, and replace him? I don't know if any of you have any personal rules of thumb, but I am open to hearing what many of you do. Its especially difficult in the "elite players" cases. Check out Julio Jones this year. I never did outright bench him, but it crossed my mind a couple of times. In the future, I need to have the intestinal fortitude to react quicker and faster when it comes to benching players, making trades etc.
#4 - CONTINUE TO AVOID EARLY ROUND QBS - This should be pretty self explanatory. In a year where we had the explosion of CARSON WENTZ, the strong rookie showing of DESHAUN WATSON (until injury), the totally unexpected great numbers at times by ALEX SMITH , and other interesting cases
with CASE KEENUM, JARED GOFF, BLAKE BORTLES and others, this is just another year where we can say it was better to wait on QB. I know many here have been on that bandwagon for a few years (or far longer). With each year that passes, I just see less and less of a need to draft a QB early, unless you are in a 2QB league or certain have settings that warrant it.
#5 - PAY MORE ATTENTION TO DEFENSES AND KICKERS - (especially towards the end-of-season) I have always thought these positions were "neglected". Everyone wants to have a kicker that "goes off" right? HARRISON BUTKER, ROBBIE GOULD, GREG ZUERLEIN and a few others, helped people win weeks here and there. That is a bit harder to judge on a week to week basis. But one thing I personally need to do is try and nab a strong defense for the playoffs. You can generally spot these about 8-10 weeks into the season, and most good fantasy players will try and pick up a good defense with a strong end-of-season schedule 2-3 weeks in advance. In 1 particular league this year, I wish I had acted sooner. I have found myself starting a defense I am not completely happy with, and several of the big ones are long gone of course, and even many of the "mid tier" defenses are now gone too. I ended up with something serviceable, but man isn't it good to roll out a defense that can put up 15+ on a given week? (or more) Thats such a massive edge in the playoffs if you happen to have it.
These are just a few of the things I "vow to do for 2018", and I will undoubtedly add in a few more sooner.
What are some of the issues that have come up, that many of you are already swearing to remember or vow to do/not do next year when the season rolls around?
TZM
You would be surprised when you do this, and you look back during the following year , how often if you violate your own "rules" preseason so to speak, how often it comes back to haunt you.
Many of us as the new season approaches, tend to forget the bitterness of being stung by an injured player (we swore we would never draft again)...... or simple things like "drafting a QB early", "drafting a TE early", or any one of a number of rules or concepts that many of us have. We often try to stick to them, but sometimes we get sucked back in to the hype, and time after time we get burned. Going back to the well on high injury-risk players is a big one, and most often its running backs.
I thought it was important to write this while this season is still going on , as its so many things still fresh in our minds, that may not be lingering there in a couple months. We might tend to forget many things that helped us along the way, especially if we have successful seasons and possibly win championships. Think about it, the winner usually tells himself "I won, so I had a great season, my skill this year was a tad better than the others", or whatever it is the average guy tells himself when he wins.
I on the other hand, like to think back in my successful seasons AS WELL AS MY BAD SEASONS , because I think you can learn just as much in your winning seasons, as you can in your poor ones.
This is something, that we can use to our advantage, as the next season approaches. This can be general fantasy concepts, or even many specific cases or players to target/avoid next year. Months from now we can look this back over, and read things we swore we would do in next years drafts. (It also may be entertaining to read, even if its something not quite as "helpful", because no doubt there will be many situations and backfields that change drastically.)
I could write close to an endless list, but here are 5 things I will use and remember next year if I can.
IN 2018 I VOW TO TRY TO -
#1 - STAY AWAY FROM THE CLEVELAND BROWNS BACKFIELD - (The addendum should be "until there is proof/or a track record of a competent running game") This is literally every year, one of the big RB stories heading into the season. Typically its "there is going to be great value in the Cleveland backfield", but this year it was just all out hype, and O-Line praise. This past offseason, I got "sucked in" to the hype yet again. I told myself like everyone did..."That line will be the best in football, Crowell should give you at least strong RB2 #s etc. etc". Horse####. This is literally like the 4th year in a row, possibly 5, I talked myself into drafting a Browns RB early, and Crowell was just a cancer. I actually traded for Crowell after week 2 in one league, figuring the workload would at least make him a low end RB2. Well, finally before the week 8 Sunday I dropped him. Until that point he had 78 carries, and not even had broken 9 fantasy points in fantasy in any week. (Owners should know the story - that week was a London game, vs a stout MINNESOTA defense. It was an easy cut, then he promptly got his first TD of the year.)
All that Crowell and situation BS aside, had I just not traded for him and avoided it completely, I may have had a far easier season in the 2 leagues I had Crowell in. Maybe next year I will finally "JUST SAY NO!" and stay away from that scenario altogether. (Now, I want to state, our leagues are start 3WRs, and I tend to go WR-WR early in drafts if I can, and get by on "RB2-ish type backs". Those type value backs and scenarios are how I often get by, Cleveland has just been a notoriously bad RB scenario the last few years) #2 - CONTINUE TO STAY AWAY FROM "INJURY RISK" or "OLD" PLAYERS - Several players I swore off last year were - AARON RODGERS, JORDY NELSON and KEENAN ALLEN. These are in fact good examples, because they go both ways on my draft day decisions. When word came out that AARON RODGERS was training with a "Hollywood trainer" in the offseason,(and was opting to train on his own, and away from team facilities and early activities there) I told my buddy "I want absolutely nothing to do with Aaron Rodgers, I bet he gets injured at some point." Many other small rumors came out, his breakup with Olivia Munn "affected him", he was supposedly leading more of a "Hollywood lifestyle", and he was even "neglecting his family" in that sense, never calling them , not giving them tickets to games, I remember reading all sorts of wild things. (and I generally don't care about players personal lives if I can help it...but a buddy showed me a few links preseason, as he is a fan of Rodgers, and wanted my opinion) Anyway, the point is, I am not saying "I'm right" about Rodgers because he got injured. But the few times he has been injured, all the "gossip" in the preseason, and a few other small things just soured me on his situation. He is good when he is rolling, but the risk is just too great for me now, there is just too many other factors making me steer clear of him. Case #2 is JORDY NELSON - I went on record and told several friends of mine, "I want nothing to do with Jordy Nelson" this year either. This time, it is the many injuries he has been through, and the biggest part of why I wanted no parts of him this year, is many times last year he looked like he had lost a step.... especially early in the season. Another case where all the small things, plus age and he looked to be dropping off last season, well that all saved me a massive headache this year. Case #3 is KEENAN ALLEN . Another one plagued by many injuries, and several seemed to be very flukey, I vowed to steer clear of his this year. Well, this time it "backfired" if you want to call it that. He has had a great season, in particular a 4-5 week stretch up until last week. (He didn't really have a great October though) Point is, we all make calls. We all make choices in drafts, and try and stay away from certain players. Over the last 5 + years, it has worked out pretty well for me, when I decide to avoid certain players, it generally is a wise move. (Often it takes a multitude of issues or things to happen for me to put them on my "avoid list", its not just a personal thing) Call it a gut call, or whatever you want to say, this "avoid list" has generally been the right decision for me personally, the last number of years. I already have a list of guys I am steering clear of next year, and you should at least mentally make a list and follow it too. (Yes, Rodgers and Nelson and Keenan Allen will all be on my "do NOT draft list" going into next year) There are other notables, but for a variety of reasons DEMARYIUS THOMAS is now on my list. ODELL BECKHAM JR. is borderline/close to my list as well, and is likely to be another I avoid next year.
#3 - ACT QUICKER WHEN A STARTER IS "UNDERPERFORMING/NON-PERFORMING" - I call this the "silent killer" in fantasy. Continuously rolling out a big name player, even after he is slowly sucking the life out of your team, week in and week out with abysmal production. I have always been guilty of "sticking with" a stud player, even when its starting to become apparent he should be benched. This season, I have been fortunate and had success (deep playoff runs) in 3/4 of my leagues. But one player I was high on this year was MARCUS MARIOTA. In fact I drafted Mariota in 3 of my 4 leagues, and the only reason I didn't nab him in the last league, was I just wanted to diversify a bit and not be tied to him in every league . In all of my leagues I consider a "success" this year, I acted and benched Mariota (and others) when it just wasn't working early on.In fact I benched him after week 2, in 2 leagues. I stuck with him for TOO LONG in one though, and you guessed it.......thats the one league where I didn't make the playoffs. As it turns out, I likely wouldn't have made the playoffs had I benched him sooner there in that league anyway, as there were also other big name players that should have likely been benched sooner than I did. This is a concept I have always struggled with, and I suspect it bothers many , "knowledgeable" fantasy players. Just when should you take a guy out, and replace him? I don't know if any of you have any personal rules of thumb, but I am open to hearing what many of you do. Its especially difficult in the "elite players" cases. Check out Julio Jones this year. I never did outright bench him, but it crossed my mind a couple of times. In the future, I need to have the intestinal fortitude to react quicker and faster when it comes to benching players, making trades etc.
#4 - CONTINUE TO AVOID EARLY ROUND QBS - This should be pretty self explanatory. In a year where we had the explosion of CARSON WENTZ, the strong rookie showing of DESHAUN WATSON (until injury), the totally unexpected great numbers at times by ALEX SMITH , and other interesting cases
with CASE KEENUM, JARED GOFF, BLAKE BORTLES and others, this is just another year where we can say it was better to wait on QB. I know many here have been on that bandwagon for a few years (or far longer). With each year that passes, I just see less and less of a need to draft a QB early, unless you are in a 2QB league or certain have settings that warrant it.#5 - PAY MORE ATTENTION TO DEFENSES AND KICKERS - (especially towards the end-of-season) I have always thought these positions were "neglected". Everyone wants to have a kicker that "goes off" right? HARRISON BUTKER, ROBBIE GOULD, GREG ZUERLEIN and a few others, helped people win weeks here and there. That is a bit harder to judge on a week to week basis. But one thing I personally need to do is try and nab a strong defense for the playoffs. You can generally spot these about 8-10 weeks into the season, and most good fantasy players will try and pick up a good defense with a strong end-of-season schedule 2-3 weeks in advance. In 1 particular league this year, I wish I had acted sooner. I have found myself starting a defense I am not completely happy with, and several of the big ones are long gone of course, and even many of the "mid tier" defenses are now gone too. I ended up with something serviceable, but man isn't it good to roll out a defense that can put up 15+ on a given week? (or more) Thats such a massive edge in the playoffs if you happen to have it.
These are just a few of the things I "vow to do for 2018", and I will undoubtedly add in a few more sooner.
What are some of the issues that have come up, that many of you are already swearing to remember or vow to do/not do next year when the season rolls around?
TZM
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(mostly because there isn't much on the wire)
Nice, I have been a frequent there for a number of years now. I actually like their old school "grid layout", but it might have been over a year since I have been there. They may have changed it. It was very bare bones, but I liked the fact you could come and go all year long and mock with others.
