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2018 Anarchy League 2 Thread - The League Of Champions (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99

Anarchy99

Footballguy
LEAGUE 2 LEAGUE SITE is up, draft has been set to start on 8/13 at 11:00 am.
Timer is off, subject to change if there are problems.

Draft order:

01 - Coordinator
02 - rzrback77
03 - Reaper
04 - CalBear
05 - There It Is
06 - Duckboy
07 - Anarchy99
08 - Just Win Baby
09 - Fiddles
10 - Norseman
11 - Biabreakable
12 - BroncoFreak 2K3
13 - Stinkin' Ref
14 - JeremyX13
15 - Firstseason1988
16 - nittanylion

 
I have a pretty good idea who David will select here, but maybe I am wrong.

He may have turned in for the evening and this will resume tomorrow when I will be gone all day.

 
My guess on who Anarchy would select with his pick was incorrect.

Kelce likely a better pick than who I was thinking he would take.

@jeremyx13 1988 is on the clock now. 

I'm going to be out for most of today but I predrafted and no matter who you guys take I am going to get players I like.

 
There it is said:
Hey CalBear old buddy...Looks like someone turned last years finish up-side-down.
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Little rough when you lose your first, fourth, and fifth round picks to injury early in the season. Plus a kicker who got cut in camp with no warning.

Antonio Brown outscored all RBs last year, and he outscored the #3 RB by over 70 points. In this format, even at 1.01 I'd be choosing between the best WR or TE. Having three RBs go off the board in front of me is awesome.

 
Biabreakable said:
I have a pretty good idea who David will select here, but maybe I am wrong.
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So I thought David would take Tom Brady and the extra games, of course Kelce is a good choice as well.

 
I have the two MIN receivers pretty close. It will be hard to know how things reset with Cousins under center. Not sure there is a huge difference between Thielen and Diggs, but I like Thielen a smidge more. 

 
Damn. Missed getting Fitzgerald by one pick.

Nice one Norseman!

It seems a bit early to be drafting Cousins based on ADP but ADP is not applicable to this league. I do think the Vikings are going to win their division and are a near lock for extra games. Cousins has better weapons to work with than I think he has ever had. Also I notice a lot of people drafting Vikings receivers high and their 4 top players were already gone. If we are right, then Cousins should have a very good season.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I have the two MIN receivers pretty close. It will be hard to know how things reset with Cousins under center. Not sure there is a huge difference between Thielen and Diggs, but I like Thielen a smidge more. 
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I know it was just one series in a preseason game, but Cousins seemed to favor Diggs.

I kept hoping Diggs would fall all the way to my pick, but Fitz was a good ( probably better) fall back selection.

I also though McCoy was a huge value at RB 19. 

 
Biabreakable said:
Damn. Missed getting Fitzgerald by one pick.

Nice one Norseman!

It seems a bit early to be drafting Cousins based on ADP but ADP is not applicable to this league. I do think the Vikings are going to win their division and are a near lock for extra games. Cousins has better weapons to work with than I think he has ever had. Also I notice a lot of people drafting Vikings receivers high and their 4 top players were already gone. If we are right, then Cousins should have a very good season.
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Homer alert

 
Stephen Holloway said:
Homer alert
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I wanted to have at least one Viking. All of the others were gone.

On a serious note however I wanted to have at least one good QB this year. Last couple seasons I have been taking a serious disadvantage at that position.

I did almost take Brees instead, but the playoff chances are stronger with the Vikings than the Saints.

I got pretty excited about the first preseason game. I liked that a lot.

 
Biabreakable said:
I wanted to have at least one Viking. All of the others were gone.

On a serious note however I wanted to have at least one good QB this year. Last couple seasons I have been taking a serious disadvantage at that position.

I did almost take Brees instead, but the playoff chances are stronger with the Vikings than the Saints.

I got pretty excited about the first preseason game. I liked that a lot.
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If you are a fan of the Vikings, perhaps the single biggest example of EXHIBIT A for ignoring the preseason should have been Dante Culpepper in 2005. I bring this up every few years, so what's once more?

In 2004, Culpepper was the #1 fantasy QB, which is insane given that Peyton Manning threw for 49 TD that year! The Vikings were loaded offensively. They rolled out Randy Moss, Nate Burleson, and Marcus Robinson, all three fantasy start worthy in the day, along with the #8 fantasy TE in Jermaine Wiggins.

The Vikings offense in the 2005 preseason looked absolutely, positively unstoppable. Culpepper played the first quarter of each game and put up a 36-44-520 total passing line. That's an 82% completion rate with an 11.8 YPA. His stock went through the roof, and at the time he was going Top 5 OVERALL in most of my drafts. In a couple of leagues he was the first pick. The hype was insane.

Then the regular season came and he had 8 INT's in the first two games. He had 12 INT's and 7 fumbles in the first 6 games. He got knocked out early in his next game with the trifecta of a torn ACL, PCL, and MCL and never played for the Vikings again.

I chuckled, as I didn't own him in any of my leagues (and at the time I played in a TON of leagues). But that should have been the magic moment for people to tap the brakes on how things look in the preseason and to avoid greatly changing your opinions based on players facing vanilla defenses, potentially playing against players that would be working at McDonald's in a few weeks, or otherwise going up against guys only giving about 60% effort.

 
Anarchy99 said:
If you are a fan of the Vikings, perhaps the single biggest example of EXHIBIT A for ignoring the preseason should have been Dante Culpepper in 2005. I bring this up every few years, so what's once more?

In 2004, Culpepper was the #1 fantasy QB, which is insane given that Peyton Manning threw for 49 TD that year! The Vikings were loaded offensively. They rolled out Randy Moss, Nate Burleson, and Marcus Robinson, all three fantasy start worthy in the day, along with the #8 fantasy TE in Jermaine Wiggins.

The Vikings offense in the 2005 preseason looked absolutely, positively unstoppable. Culpepper played the first quarter of each game and put up a 36-44-520 total passing line. That's an 82% completion rate with an 11.8 YPA. His stock went through the roof, and at the time he was going Top 5 OVERALL in most of my drafts. In a couple of leagues he was the first pick. The hype was insane.

Then the regular season came and he had 8 INT's in the first two games. He had 12 INT's and 7 fumbles in the first 6 games. He got knocked out early in his next game with the trifecta of a torn ACL, PCL, and MCL and never played for the Vikings again.

I chuckled, as I didn't own him in any of my leagues (and at the time I played in a TON of leagues). But that should have been the magic moment for people to tap the brakes on how things look in the preseason and to avoid greatly changing your opinions based on players facing vanilla defenses, potentially playing against players that would be working at McDonald's in a few weeks, or otherwise going up against guys only giving about 60% effort.
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I don't think mis-assessing Culpepper that year had anything to do with him playing well in preseason games. He had ranked as QB#1 three times in the previous five years, and QB#2 once, and was a top QB on a PPG basis in 2001 when he got hurt. He put up 149 VBD points in two of those seasons. His 2004 was at the time the #1 fantasy QB season of all time, and it was only surpassed once (Brady 2007) until 2011 and the rule changes. (It's still #7 all time).

By MFL's ADP rankings, Manning averaged 1.10 and Culpepper averaged 1.11, which is about appropriate, or possibly under-drafted for their production.

Who knows why Culpepper fell off a cliff in 2005. 

 
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CalBear said:
I don't think mis-assessing Culpepper that year had anything to do with him playing well in preseason games. He had ranked as QB#1 three times in the previous five years, and QB#2 once, and was a top QB on a PPG basis in 2001 when he got hurt. He put up 149 VBD points in two of those seasons. His 2004 was at the time the #1 fantasy QB season of all time, and it was only surpassed once (Brady 2007) until 2011 and the rule changes. (It's still #7 all time).

By MFL's ADP rankings, Manning averaged 1.10 and Culpepper averaged 1.11, which is about appropriate, or possibly under-drafted for their production.

Who knows why Culpepper fell off a cliff in 2005. 
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In context, most of the leagues I was in at the time people hoarded RB's, top WR's, and the top tier TE's. QB's were usually ignored. Maybe the first one would go at the end of the 3rd round but often the 4th. Certainly they were worth taking earlier than that, people just chose not to. That year in particular, everyone fawned over Dante and took him in my leagues anywhere from 1-5 overall.

My point had nothing to do with the relative value of where Culpepper was worth drafting, but much more to do with perception based on preseason performance. Based on Culpepper's phenomenal 2004 campaign and his lights out 2005 preseason performance, people in my leagues morphed from wait until the 6th or 8th rounds to draft a QB to taking him in the top half of the first round. His sudden and steep decline really was an unfortunate outcome, but the change is draft philosophy in my leagues was based on how good he looked in the preseason. That's where I was headed in terms of the preseason making an impact on people.

 
Anarchy99 said:
If you are a fan of the Vikings, perhaps the single biggest example of EXHIBIT A for ignoring the preseason should have been Dante Culpepper in 2005. I bring this up every few years, so what's once more?

In 2004, Culpepper was the #1 fantasy QB, which is insane given that Peyton Manning threw for 49 TD that year! The Vikings were loaded offensively. They rolled out Randy Moss, Nate Burleson, and Marcus Robinson, all three fantasy start worthy in the day, along with the #8 fantasy TE in Jermaine Wiggins.

The Vikings offense in the 2005 preseason looked absolutely, positively unstoppable. Culpepper played the first quarter of each game and put up a 36-44-520 total passing line. That's an 82% completion rate with an 11.8 YPA. His stock went through the roof, and at the time he was going Top 5 OVERALL in most of my drafts. In a couple of leagues he was the first pick. The hype was insane.

Then the regular season came and he had 8 INT's in the first two games. He had 12 INT's and 7 fumbles in the first 6 games. He got knocked out early in his next game with the trifecta of a torn ACL, PCL, and MCL and never played for the Vikings again.

I chuckled, as I didn't own him in any of my leagues (and at the time I played in a TON of leagues). But that should have been the magic moment for people to tap the brakes on how things look in the preseason and to avoid greatly changing your opinions based on players facing vanilla defenses, potentially playing against players that would be working at McDonald's in a few weeks, or otherwise going up against guys only giving about 60% effort.
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I agree with what you are saying. In particular about the vanilla defenses and teams not game planning for preseason games.

I owned Culpepper back then in several dynasty teams. I don't think I paid attention to preseason that year. It certainly wouldn't have affected my opinion of Culpepper though, as I was already very high on him after listening to local radio and pretty much everyone bashing Green for deciding to start Culpepper in the first place.

I already had a high opinion of Cousins capabilities, from long before he became a Viking. As a fan of the team what I saw in preseason was an offensive line that could actually block. That is the main thing I am worried about.  Now scheme certainly applies to this also as defenses are not sending their special pressure packages, but they moved the line of scrimmage and I liked what I saw from them.

 
Not a fantasy tidbit, but I had a friend who was a huge Lions fans. They almost got to .500 in 2007 (ended 7-9) after a nice 6-2 start (and then their defense fell apart). They had this hot shot young receiver named Calvin something or other. The following preseason, they looking really good in beating the champion Giants (barely lost to them in the regular season the season before) and went on to blow out their other opponents in the preseason. The defense looked way better and the offense still had spurts of real promise. Their over / under win total for the season was 6.5 wins. My friend went overboard and bet the ranch on the over, in addition to making bets that they would make the playoffs and even get to the SB. He had to have bet in the thousands. And we all know how well that season went. Counting their 4 wins in the preseason, they went on to a quality 4-16 total record for the season.

 
In regards to Captain Kirk. I was listening to Greg Jennings talk about the issues with the Vikings offensive line. His response was a elite QB can overcome a poor offensive line by getting the ball out quickly and that this is why Kirk Cousins got paid $84 million because the Vikings believe he is good enough to to do that. Jennings thought so too.

I am still worried about the offensive line because of the higher frequency of Cousins throwing interceptions when he gets pressure up the middle. The center and guards the bigger question marks for the Vikings right now than the tackles are.

You can't fake the funk of driving defenders off the ball though.

 
Although this is a different strategy for me taking QB a bit higher than I would like to, I am pretty happy with who I got dipping into the QB run. I think the Vikings and Chargers will win their divisions in 2018 and have at least one extra game.

 
Biabreakable said:
Although this is a different strategy for me taking QB a bit higher than I would like to, I am pretty happy with who I got dipping into the QB run. I think the Vikings and Chargers will win their divisions in 2018 and have at least one extra game.
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We have no idea what will happen this season, but based on last season's numbers . . .

17 games of MIN using last year's TMQB ppg would equal 326.13 points and would have ranked as TMQB 16. You bought them this season as TMQB 5.
17 games of LAC using last year's TMQB ppg would equal 347.80 points and would have ranked as TMQB 9. You bought them this season as TMQB 10.

OF course, either team could play more than 17 games (or could only play 16 games). We will have to see if Cousins moves the needle for them to rank higher (or if they advance past one playoff game). The Chargers TMQB may end up being the better pick, as you took drafted that pick 21 spots later and they could end up outscoring MIN.

 
Anarchy99 said:
We have no idea what will happen this season, but based on last season's numbers . . .

17 games of MIN using last year's TMQB ppg would equal 326.13 points and would have ranked as TMQB 16. You bought them this season as TMQB 5.
17 games of LAC using last year's TMQB ppg would equal 347.80 points and would have ranked as TMQB 9. You bought them this season as TMQB 10.

OF course, either team could play more than 17 games (or could only play 16 games). We will have to see if Cousins moves the needle for them to rank higher (or if they advance past one playoff game). The Chargers TMQB may end up being the better pick, as you took drafted that pick 21 spots later and they could end up outscoring MIN.
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Last season with Case Keenum at QB the Vikings team QB finished as the 10th overall scorer in this system, in part because of the extra two games in the playoffs.

Kirk Cousins is a better QB than Keenum is. I would not be surprised if 2017 ends up as Keenums career best season.

While converting numbers to PPG is a decent way to project forward, this is not a PPG league. This is a total points league.

Last season QB 5 was drafted with pick 2.10 I got the 5th QB at pick 4.06

As I already mentioned I strongly considered Brees with the pick instead of Cousins, and perhaps that turns out to be the better choice, however I like the Vikings chances of winning their division and playing extra games more than the Saints, although that is also close.

I decided to draft QB higher this year because I did not want to get stuck with players such as Tannehill or worse who are giving up 200 points to the top QBs. Put that into PPG if you like it is a huge difference.

I can live with it if RIvers does better than Cousins. I doubt that happens but it would help me if it does. Of course it is a late pick and thus offers more value based on that alone.

ETA - Captain Kirk was 10th overall player in PPG last season. With a injury riddled offensive line and not many reliable targets in the passing game for Cousins to work with.

 
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Biabreakable said:
Last season with Case Keenum at QB the Vikings team QB finished as the 10th overall scorer in this system, in part because of the extra two games in the playoffs.

Kirk Cousins is a better QB than Keenum is. I would not be surprised if 2017 ends up as Keenums career best season.

While concerting things to PPG is a decent way to project forward, this is not a PPG league. This is a total points league.

Last season QB 5 was drafted with pick 2.10 I got the 5th QB at pick 4.06

As I already mentioned I strongly considered Brees with the pick instead of Cousins, and perhaps that turns out to be the better choice, however I like the Vikings chances of winning their division and playing extra games more than the Saints, although that is also close.

I decided to draft QB higher this year because I did not want to get stuck with players such as Tannehill or worse who are giving up 200 points to the top QBs. Put that into PPG if you like it is a huge difference.

I can live with it if RIvers does better than Cousins. I doubt that happens but it would help me if it does. Of course it is a late pick and thus offers more value based on that alone.
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I'm not shooting down your pick or your strategy. Just for my buying dollar, I myself probably would not have taken the Vikings QB that early (or maybe better stated not as the QB5). If, as you mentioned, their passing numbers go up with Cousins and they advance to the SB, things will work out. The Redskins with Cousins were worth roughly 2 ppg more than Keenum was with MIN. Really hard to tell what the net result will be first year.

I like the Vikings QB situation as a fantasy option and in this format, but I probably would have waited a little longer to take them (which may have forced me to look elsewhere). It certainly won't end up being a bad pick, I just think there is limited upside based on where you took them. On the flip side, I don't think there is much downside either as I doubt they fall off a cliff passing wise and return to TMQB25 like they were in 2016.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I'm not shooting down your pick or your strategy. Just for my buying dollar, I myself probably would not have taken the Vikings QB that early (or maybe better stated not as the QB5). If, as you mentioned, their passing numbers go up with Cousins and they advance to the SB, things will work out. The Redskins with Cousins were worth roughly 2 ppg more than Keenum was with MIN. Really hard to tell what the net result will be first year.
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Hmmm I dunno the net result will likely be better than Case Keenum? If Cousins was 10th overall last year with the situation he had to deal with, seems reasonable to expect that he will do better than that, with a better team and receivers for him to work with.

I like the Vikings QB situation as a fantasy option and in this format, but I probably would have waited a little longer to take them (which may have forced me to look elsewhere). It certainly won't end up being a bad pick, I just think there is limited upside based on where you took them. On the flip side, I don't think there is much downside either as I doubt they fall off a cliff passing wise and return to TMQB25 like they were in 2016.
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The Vikings in 2016 were a complete tire fire with all of the injuries and poor play from their offensive line. It was a worse situation than what Cousins just left in Washington last year, and he was still 10th overall under those circumstances, although I don't think the injuries to Washington caused their offensive line to be as bad as the Vikings in 2016 which was epic in how terrible they were. You had to go back to the 1970s to find a offensive line that bad.

 
Biabreakable said:
Hmmm I dunno the net result will likely be better than Case Keenum? If Cousins was 10th overall last year with the situation he had to deal with, seems reasonable to expect that he will do better than that, with a better team and receivers for him to work with.
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The Vikings ranked 21st in pass attempts last year. They have a rock solid defense and with Cook coming back should have a strong running game. Neither of those two were present in Washington. Cousins is a step up from Keenum, but MIN may not throw the football more this year just because they have Cousins. They could easily be Bottom 10 in passing attempts this year if the defense plays the same, the ground game is working, and they don't need to chance turning the ball over if they are winning.

 
Anarchy99 said:
The Vikings ranked 21st in pass attempts last year. They have a rock solid defense and with Cook coming back should have a strong running game. Neither of those two were present in Washington. Cousins is a step up from Keenum, but MIN may not throw the football more this year just because they have Cousins. They could easily be Bottom 10 in passing attempts this year if the defense plays the same, the ground game is working, and they don't need to chance turning the ball over if they are winning.
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This is likely the case that Cousins will not need to throw as much as he did with Washington.

So I am banking on efficiency from Cousins making up that difference, but I agree his pass attempts may be taking a haircut.

 
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