2018 rookie pick 1.04 pre combine (Closed) (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

he purpose of these polls is to get an idea of who the majority of voters prefer at a specific pick in a rookie draft. These drafts assume that all 2018 rookie players are available. For the 2QB poll there may be some variance in scoring. Some may be standard, others PPR. I think a lot of 2QB leagues may involve IDP as well so these differences are not accounted for here. Only looking at the offensive skill players in the two most common formats and also 2QB leagues, to get a sense of where the QB are valued relative to other positions, when there is actually scarcity at the QB position. The polls assume 12 teams and likely 24-26 roster spots as the most common format for dynasty. Short bench dynasty leagues should only care about the top 6-12 rookie players.

If a player isn't listed that you would vote for please vote other and then post the name of the player that you voted for so that player can be added to the next poll.

I haven't watched enough players yet to have a list, so I will populate the polls based off of Zyphros overall list and Hankmoodys tiers for now. Suggestions of players to add helpful.

Another nice list compiled by miqws that looks good for populating the poll.

Discussion welcome.Thanks for voting.

Results

Standard

Sanquon Barkley 94.3% with 71 votes

Derrius Guice 79.5% with with 76 votes

Nick Chubb 28.5% with 89 votes

Ronald Jones 43.3% with 67 votes

PPR

Sanquon Barkley 97.4% with 71 votes

Derrius Guice 78% with 76 votes

Ronald Jones 42.2% with 89 votes

Sony Michel 63.3% with 67 votes

2 QB

Sanquon Barkley 75.7% with 71 votes

Derrius Guice 30.1% with 76 votes

Sony Michel 12% with 89 votes

Ronald Jones 43.3% with 67 votes

TE Premium

Sanquon Barkley 82.9% with 71 votes

Derrius Guice 61.6% with 76 votes

Ronald Jones 25.3% with 89 votes

Sony Michel 50% with 67 votes

 

[Biabreakable]

So pretty mixed results at pick 1.03 with Chubb winning the standard poll, Jones winning the PPR poll and Sony Michel winning the 2 QB poll. 

 

[smbkrypt24]

So pretty mixed results at pick 1.03 with Chubb winning the standard poll, Jones winning the PPR poll and Sony Michel winning the 2 QB poll. 

Do we think the variance is due to people's interpretation of the leagues they are in as far as 2QB? I understand having different RBs for standard vs PPR.  It seems weird to have 3 different RB's for Standard, PPR, then 2QB.

 

[Biabreakable]

Do we think the variance is due to people's interpretation of the leagues they are in as far as 2QB? I understand having different RBs for standard vs PPR.  It seems weird to have 3 different RB's for Standard, PPR, then 2QB.

I cant speak for other peoples reasoning. I have heard some state that Jones is a better option for PPR. He won that poll. Jones was only one vote behind Chubb in the standard poll when I closed it at 89 votes. So it was very close.

Folks who play in 2 QB leagues have a different view and Michel won there, however it was only 12% of the vote. The folks who play in 2 QB leagues I really can't explain as that poll always seems to have the most variance and fewest votes. I do think the folks who play in these leagues may be some of the most hardcore fantasy owners. So Michel winning there does mean something to me.

I have only charted two of Jones games so far while I charted 10 for Chubb, 5 for Michel. I have been voting do not play on the last two because I am really not sure who I prefer yet or what format.

 

[Biabreakable]

Bump for more votes.

 

[Biabreakable]

Sony Michel with a lot of support so far in the PPR and TE polls, but not in standard where Ronald Jones has a lead.

 

[Biabreakable]

Poll 1.02 seems more popular than the current poll.

 

[barackdhouse]

Poll 1.02 seems more popular than the current poll.

Which perhaps underscores how debatable and fluid the 1.02 is right now.

I forget - was there a lot of movement on these polls from the pre-combine to pre-NFL draft versions? In the 1st round anyway? I would assume a bit of movement after the draft. I took part last year and it was helpful, but just curious if the polls became more or less predictive (of ADP) as the off-season went on.

 

[Biabreakable]

Which perhaps underscores how debatable and fluid the 1.02 is right now.

I forget - was there a lot of movement on these polls from the pre-combine to pre-NFL draft versions? In the 1st round anyway? I would assume a bit of movement after the draft. I took part last year and it was helpful, but just curious if the polls became more or less predictive (of ADP) as the off-season went on.

I'm not sure if I have done pre NFL combine polls before. Usually post combine then post draft. 

I just usually do not think of doing them until my own rankings are pretty much set and I know what my opinions of the players are. I was just reminded about the polls in another topic so decided to start them now which happens to be before the combine, so thats nice. Something new. Maybe there was another year I did them before the combine but I just don't remember.

So I dont have much historical context for which to answer your question.

As far as the polls predicting ADP. In some ways I think the polls are better than ADP but overall I think they are fairly similar. Just with a SP lean on ADP compared to everyone who uses MFL or whatever that the ADP is taken from.

A few years back Dan Hindery was looking at the polls and he was able to get something out of them which changed his rookie rankings, which were already done prior to the polls.

So there are a variety of people who get different types of value out of them. I think it is mainly because the people voting on the polls tend to know more things than your average fantasy football player. You add what 100 or so nerds know together and it becomes pretty strong.

eta - I have done some pre combine polls before but not recently after thinking about it. I don't remember well enough how much of change the combine makes. The combine matters to some people, so I would expect things to change maybe not as much of a change as the post NFL draft affects peoples view of players which seems right.

 

[barackdhouse]

@Biabreakable yea ok thanks for the follow up. I was in a league with Dan Hindery for a couple years. Good guy and I really like his dynasty trade value columns. 

I felt like the polls were helpful last year.  Perhaps the SP skew was a key to that. 

 

[Biabreakable]

For me I am still getting to know these players and I am further behind then perhaps usual because the Vikings made it to the championship game. I don't usually start watching players and reading about them until after the NFL season is over. As a Vikings fan this has come earlier for me than this year was.

I think a lot of the folks in the SP are more interested in college football than I am. So I am always trying to catch up. Lots of these folks play in devy leagues too and have strong informed opinions about these players for a few years already. That only happens for me with a few players that I happen to have noticed or watch from years before. For example the only WR from the 2018 that I am sort of familiar with right now is Calvin RIdley, which comes from watching Drake and other players before where Ridley was making plays that got my attention.

I am pretty much a blank slate when it comes to the WR right now. I was going to finish watching the RB for awhile before moving on to the WR which likely won't be until after the combine.

Incidentally I think the combine matters the least for the WR position. So waiting on them isn't that big of a deal. The combine isn't going to change my view of many players anyways, but least of all WR.

I do think pre combine rankings of players are usually better than rankings more influenced by the combine. So it would be nice to have say a top 12 or so before that information takes us to the next step of the getting to know these players step.