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2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (2 Viewers)

Yeah, I am playing Mostert over Latavius (vs Tampa)
Potentially starting Mostert in flex over both Z. Pascal and R. Gage...

...while also starting T. Coleman.

Would be a big bet on the SF running attack this week.

Which means J. Wilson will score 2 TDs.

 
Would Miles Sanders qualify for this thread?  He's pretty widely owned (73.7% in ESPN), but as of yesterday's practice Jordan Howard was not cleared for contact with a stinger.  If Sanders had the backfield to himself (or possibly split with Ajayi who might get signed now that Sproles is on IR) Sanders could be very valuable.

 
Would Miles Sanders qualify for this thread?  He's pretty widely owned (73.7% in ESPN), but as of yesterday's practice Jordan Howard was not cleared for contact with a stinger.  If Sanders had the backfield to himself (or possibly split with Ajayi who might get signed now that Sproles is on IR) Sanders could be very valuable.
I almost commented with this, but unfortunately he isn't exactly a buy-low at this point; in fact, his value has never been higher, with Howard's injury. Whoever owns Sanders probably owns him exactly for this scenario, and while Sanders may win you some games, he probably won't be a trade target right now. 

 
Would Miles Sanders qualify for this thread?  He's pretty widely owned (73.7% in ESPN), but as of yesterday's practice Jordan Howard was not cleared for contact with a stinger.  If Sanders had the backfield to himself (or possibly split with Ajayi who might get signed now that Sproles is on IR) Sanders could be very valuable.
Added Sanders to the Honorable Mentions list.

 
I almost commented with this, but unfortunately he isn't exactly a buy-low at this point; in fact, his value has never been higher, with Howard's injury. Whoever owns Sanders probably owns him exactly for this scenario, and while Sanders may win you some games, he probably won't be a trade target right now. 
This is why Ive held him all year.  And With Connor now dinged again id live him to get more work.

 
Rotoworld:

Eagles re-signed RB Jay Ajayi.

The Eagles needed another back after Darren Sproles was placed on injured reserve. Ajayi is also an insurance option for Jordan Howard who has been dealing with a "stinger" this week. It's unclear if Ajayi will be active this Sunday but being with the organization in 2017 and 2018 helps his chances. Ajayi is merely a handcuff and depth back for Philly.

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Nov 15, 2019, 3:38 PM ET

 
Lions promoted RB Bo Scarbrough from the practice squad.

Scarbrough will work as the offense's No. 3 RB behind Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic. Paul Perkins was waived in a corresponding roster move.

SOURCE: Dave Birkett on Twitter.

Nov 16, 2019, 4:05 PM ET

 
Well...I didn't want to get into a Assistant Coach thing.  But since you ask.  Ridley is the WR.  Mattison the RB (yes, I can't believe someone has left him sit there given some of the bench options in my league...Im already sitting with Miles Sanders as a sort of lotto pick that I can still flex if needed...this would be adding another...but the home run if an injury happened).  Ridley is sort of his own lotto at WR.  Flexable at times, but if Julio went down, and he was the #1...that could be very nice.
Depends if you own Dalvin Cook or Jordan Howard IMO.

With Hooper's injury Ridley's value increases. With Howard's injury Sanders value increases. 

Mattison is, arguably, the #1 handcuff/lotto ticket (as a Cook owner I traded Tyrell Williams for him back in week 3 or 4) but he is banking on an injury yet to happen. Sanders is not banking on that now, although I do not know the severity of Howard's injury.

 
Does anyone understand what is going on with L McCoy KCC?
Nobody can really say with any definitiveness. I've followed it all year. Best I can suss out, Shady isn't that great in pass pro and turned the ball over twice in crucial situations. Other than that, he's running and catching the ball well.  

 
I don't think anyone outside of Andy Reid/ his coaching staff really knows what's going on. 

Personally, he's an avoid for me. too many mouths to feed in that backfield and when healthy, Dam Williams appears to be the clear lead back. Aside from that, I honestly believe McCoy is the 4th best RB on the team. 

Just my $0.02 though

 
Andy Reid might truly be resting LeSean to keep him fresh for December and January.  Lots of old players seem to have trouble playing all 16 games and still be effective at the end of the year.  This is probably more true with running backs.  And with Mahomes' knee being vulnerable, it was the perfect time to give Shady rest since he is bad at pass protection.

 
Why don't we do this?  Let's talk about the RB situation for our own teams and what we are planning to do... listing the handcuffs in priority order... possible WW adds for your specific team, etc.  So we'll be talking about the lotto ticket RBs but with a bit of context around a specific roster. 

So here goes:  I have Zeke and pretty much nothing else that is RB2 worthy.  Here is how I prioritize the lotto handcuffs for my squad.

T. Pollard (DAL) - no brainer because I have Zeke (probably a no brainer even without Zeke)
L. Murray (NO) - clear #2 lotto tick for me since he's already proven he can carry the load in NO if needed
J. Samuels (PIT) - clear #3 for me because I have to start someone :lol:   although the Pittsburgh offense stinks
M. Brown (LAR) - I'm holding now that the Rams have apparently changed their philosophy a bit.  If Gurley gets dings I'm betting he gets more of the workload that Henderson.
R. Armstead (JAX) - I'm holding because he can catch passes, Foles is back, and he should get most of the carries if Fournette can't go

Not sure how to rank these guys but they are similar (potent offense, but multiple RBs in the fold).
Jeff Wilson (SF) - Too many mouths to feed at RB but with Brieda out he's a step closer to production.  I missed out on Moestart so grabbed Jeff instead.  He looked good on his TD reception.
Darrel Williams (KC) - KC bye coming at the wrong time from a fantasy POV.  I picked him up when Damien's availability was in question for MNF and now Shady (possible concussion) and Damien (rib) are both dinged.  Might hold through the bye to see how those guys look heading into week 13.
 

WW

I'm going to try to acquire Jonathan Williams (IND) or B. Scarborough (DET) for A. Tate but I'm too far back in the WW priority so I won't get either of them.

 
daylight said:
Does anyone understand what is going on with L McCoy KCC?
As you saw, answer is really no. Shady keeps burying himself, Damien can't stay healthy. I really want to make a play for Darrell Williams as I think he's looked super solid when he's given the ball (just as, if not more so at times, than the two starters ahead of him) but as soon as I do, I know Darwin Thompson will suddenly come out of nowhere.

So as a lotto ticket, there is simply too much variability and too many potential guys in this carousel that I don't think it's worth getting on.

This is the week, now that I am clear from byes and hopefully clear-ish for injuries, that I am making a play for a buy and hold lotto ticket. My priorities are are looking for a guy who will more likely get lion's share of carries when the starter goes down, and has a current role that may make him a low-end flex/starter in the case one of my current backs blows a tire.

Including guys I think can help in the next week or two as well, my priorities are:

  1. Tony Pollard - not only is he the guy if Zeke goes down, he gets employed both in run and passing games as it is
  2. Gus Edwards -- I think his value is depleted a little by Jackson, but looks like the team will happily give him lion's share if Ingram ails, and he spells Ingram and is used when the Ravens are up in garbage time. I expect one or two blow-outs left in the season (Jets, potentially CLE and/or PIT) and there is a likelihood they may rest some starters as well going into the last week or two into the playoff.
  3. Bo Scarborough - flavor of the week, but looked really good where Ty hasn't. McKissic is still a factor though.
  4. Rashaad Penny -- Carson owner
  5. Williams/Wilkins - not sure which of these two I prefer. Williams definitely earned a ctack given last week, but Wilkins has shown he can do it too in the past. Both degrade each other's value a little
  6. Ryquel Armstead
  7. Reggie Bonnafon
  8. Dion Lewis -- Henry owner
Also looking at Chris Thompson, who has great value in PPR, but is injured and already have Guice and would rather have some portfolio diversity.

 
SoBeDad said:
Laird's value would be if Miami is in catchup mode, as a pass receiver, like in the last game.
Which should pretty much be almost every game that they are behind. 😀

 
Trying to decide between Darrel Williams, Alexander Mattison and Gus Edwards in case Kittle is inactive and I can put him in my IR spot again.  First two on Bye this week.and Edwards is Monday night.  Unless one of them gets lead back work, I won't be starting any of them, so only interested in the lotto ticket value.  Would only be able to look at guys on the Bye Week teams or Sunday/Monday night lineups.

Dalvin Cook is the healthy and presumably nothing happened to him this week, so Mattison would be least likely to be valuable in week 13.  Closing schedule is at Seahawks, home vs. Lions, at Chargers, home vs Packers

Darrel Williams has more of a chance to be valuable in week 13, since Damien Williams has a rib injury and McCoy a concussion (but both got a week of rest).  Closing schedule is Raiders at home, at Patriots, home vs Broncos, at Bears.

Gus Edwards looks very good when playing, Ingram seems to be slowing some so might get more timeshare value even if no big injury to Ingram, or possibility of blow outs mean Ingram sits and Edwards does mop up duty.  Home vs 49ers, at Bills, home vs. Jets, at Browns

Chase Edmunds would probably be in a time share with Drake (assuming Edmunds is healthy), so considering the other 3 guys more than Edmunds.  Close out with Rams at home, Steelers at home, Browns at home, then At Seattle.

 
Trying to decide between Darrel Williams, Alexander Mattison and Gus Edwards in case Kittle is inactive and I can put him in my IR spot again.  First two on Bye this week.and Edwards is Monday night.  Unless one of them gets lead back work, I won't be starting any of them, so only interested in the lotto ticket value.  Would only be able to look at guys on the Bye Week teams or Sunday/Monday night lineups.

Dalvin Cook is the healthy and presumably nothing happened to him this week, so Mattison would be least likely to be valuable in week 13.  Closing schedule is at Seahawks, home vs. Lions, at Chargers, home vs Packers

Darrel Williams has more of a chance to be valuable in week 13, since Damien Williams has a rib injury and McCoy a concussion (but both got a week of rest).  Closing schedule is Raiders at home, at Patriots, home vs Broncos, at Bears.

Gus Edwards looks very good when playing, Ingram seems to be slowing some so might get more timeshare value even if no big injury to Ingram, or possibility of blow outs mean Ingram sits and Edwards does mop up duty.  Home vs 49ers, at Bills, home vs. Jets, at Browns

Chase Edmunds would probably be in a time share with Drake (assuming Edmunds is healthy), so considering the other 3 guys more than Edmunds.  Close out with Rams at home, Steelers at home, Browns at home, then At Seattle.
I still think that Mattison is the highest lotto ticket value.  Everyone needs an injury to have confidentRB1 reality, but Mattison has the clearest path if the starter has an injury.

In terms of median outcome, though, Edwards seems fairly clearly at the top.  Justice Hill has been an afterthought and you are right about the timeshare.  I don't know for sure what would happen if ingram had a season-ending injury, but seems like Edwards would get the majority of the work.  

So I would say it's pretty close between Mattison and Edwards, with the other 2 fairly far behind due to a lot more variables.

 
I still think that Mattison is the highest lotto ticket value.  Everyone needs an injury to have confidentRB1 reality, but Mattison has the clearest path if the starter has an injury.

In terms of median outcome, though, Edwards seems fairly clearly at the top.  Justice Hill has been an afterthought and you are right about the timeshare.  I don't know for sure what would happen if ingram had a season-ending injury, but seems like Edwards would get the majority of the work.  

So I would say it's pretty close between Mattison and Edwards, with the other 2 fairly far behind due to a lot more variables.
Yeah, that lines up with my thinking.  I think you just stated it better.  Thanks

 
Curious on opinions on my RB lotto ticket stash situation.

I've secured a bye so I'm looking to weeks 15 and 16 now. Here's my RBs along with available RBs on waivers:

* On roster: S. Barkley, T. Coleman, K. Drake, A. Ekeler, D. Guice, L. McCoy, A. Mattison, W. Gallman

* On waivers: T. Pollard, G. Edwards, C. Edwards, R. Armstead

I'm at my max 8 RBs on the roster so I'd need to drop a RB to pick up one. Reaaaaaally would love to pick up Edwards...if Ingram goes down he'll produce. Same goes for Armstead and Pollard. Also wouldn't mind grabbing Edwards so I have the AZ backfield...could see that offense clicking. 

If I had to drop anyone I assume it would be McCoy and/or Guice. McCoy a wildcard, but if D. Williams is out I love having a piece of that offense. Guice is someone I don't need till week 15 so maybe AP is put out to pasture by then.

Thoughts?

Hoping this is a useful exercise for others. 

 
Curious on opinions on my RB lotto ticket stash situation.

Thoughts?
How may RBs can you start?  I assume a total of 3 (2RB + 1 FLex).

RB1: S. Barkley or handcuff W. Gallman (good matchups week 15/16)

The rest:

K. Drake - proven performer in his offense when he's the only guy.  What happens after the bye?

A. Ekeler - proven flex performer at least, plus some great weeks even after Godon's return

T. Coleman - great offense but he involvement is questionable even with Breida out.  Probably a hold due to the offense.

A. Mattison - definite keeper, would take over most of the carries if something happened to Cook

L. McCoy - good offense, but too many mouths to feed plus Reid is flaky.  Worth keeping in case everyone else gets hurt (I have Darrell Williams for the same reason on my squad).

D. Guice - not sure of WAS playoff schedule or current playing time between him and AP, but I think he is the most cutable based on your situation.

====

I think I would drop Guice for Chase Edmonds so you can lockup* the ARI and NYG backfields as your RB1 and RB2 spots.  *I realize D. Johnson is still there but I see Edmonds helping you more in the AIR offense that Guice in the WAS offense.

 
How may RBs can you start?  I assume a total of 3 (2RB + 1 FLex).

RB1: S. Barkley or handcuff W. Gallman (good matchups week 15/16)

The rest:

K. Drake - proven performer in his offense when he's the only guy.  What happens after the bye?

A. Ekeler - proven flex performer at least, plus some great weeks even after Godon's return

T. Coleman - great offense but he involvement is questionable even with Breida out.  Probably a hold due to the offense.

A. Mattison - definite keeper, would take over most of the carries if something happened to Cook

L. McCoy - good offense, but too many mouths to feed plus Reid is flaky.  Worth keeping in case everyone else gets hurt (I have Darrell Williams for the same reason on my squad).

D. Guice - not sure of WAS playoff schedule or current playing time between him and AP, but I think he is the most cutable based on your situation.

====

I think I would drop Guice for Chase Edmonds so you can lockup* the ARI and NYG backfields as your RB1 and RB2 spots.  *I realize D. Johnson is still there but I see Edmonds helping you more in the AIR offense that Guice in the WAS offense.


Thanks for the response.

This is a PPR league where I actually have TWO flex positions so I can start up to 4 RBs. Max number of RBs I can have on the roster is 8...and I'm there.

I agree with you if somebody has to go it's Guice. Torn. Guice faces PHI in week 15 and that's not a good matchup, but then faces the NYG in week 16. On the flip side, AZ faces CLE at home and then @SEA. 

Soooo tempted to drop Gallman because I doubt anyone would pick him up (but then of course somebody would). Everyone is so focused on winning this week vs. looking ahead (besides me).

 
Here is my current RB situation (1/2 PPR and I can start 3 RBs):

Zeke - obviously never leaves my lineup
B. Snell - current RB2 while J. Conner is out.  Good matchups until week 16 so I'll worry about that when I get there :)

L. Murray - top flex option in any week.  Was a stud when Kamara was out and would become my RB2 if Kamara is out again.
T. Pollard - top handcuff will not cut
W. Gallman - NYG have great matchups in week 15/16 so I'm holding even though I don't have Barkley 
R. Armstead - I've held for a long time so no need to change that now.  Would take over most of the carries if Fournette can't go.
Darrel Williams - Damien currently hurt.  McCoy on a pitch count?  Already showed he could be productive if the last man standing.  Will keep due to excellent value should he be the last man standing at RB.
R. Mostert - excellent offense.  Could carry the load if every else gets hurt.  Breida currently dinged.  However, would be next to go if necessary.
J. Samuels - seems to have fallen out of favor in PIT.  Snell fits what the Steelers need this year more than Samuels.  Steelers need a good "runner" to protect their suspect QB play and dovetails with their excellent defense.  Will be the first to go if I need to make a move.
 

 
R. Mostert - excellent offense.  Could carry the load if every else gets hurt.  Breida currently dinged.  However, would be next to go if necessary.
J. Samuels - seems to have fallen out of favor in PIT.  Snell fits what the Steelers need this year more than Samuels.  Steelers need a good "runner" to protect their suspect QB play and dovetails with their excellent defense.  Will be the first to go if I need to make a move.
 
Breida is practicing. As an owner of T. Coleman who has had Mostert on and off the roster all year, I'd dump him.

I'd also dump Samuels. Offense stinks, Snell looks to be the backup, and Conner could be back.

I really want to pick up Gus Edwards. That rushing offense is the real deal and he has stand alone value. I'd have to cut either Guice or McCoy. Wish I could roster them all.

 
My head is spinning right now. Been trying to stockpile these RBs as we head into the playoffs.

Targeting Darwin Thompson (and I'm a McCoy owner) and Mostert (and I'm a frustrated Coleman owner). However, I'd have to ditch Gus Edwards.

Also mildly interested in P. Laird. The MIA offense is clicking and in weeks 15/16, Laird gets @NYG, CINCI. Something this guy is going to make an impact for fantasy champions.

 
In keeping with LBL and his thoughts on Breida and Mostert, I actually have said all along that Mostert might be the best back on their team. This is also not a self-backpat, it's in keeping with LBL's "what a dumb hobby." If a layman like me can see a potential seismic change, one so easily measured with a constant of the same o-line, one would figure...

But one would be wrong. 

 
Mostert has been on/off my roster several times this season - you guessed it I dropped him last week at the last minute - definitely a dumb hobby :lol:  

 
Don't need an RB, but, Darwin Thompson and Patrick Laird are on waivers right now. Not sure if I should be playing keep-away for this week or next. The only guy I could drop for one of them is Tony Pollard.
Right now I have a claim for both and would drop Gus Edwards.

Don't want to drop Gus, but had been holding Mattison. Figure the Mattison/Cook situation is what the fantasy gods decided to give me and they are now going to allow M. Ingram to remain healthy for the rest of the year.

 

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