beef
Footballguy
I noticed the fellas at DLF were putting together a group average.
http://mizelle.net/mfl/2019/rookies/rankDetails.php?pid=ppr_post
http://mizelle.net/mfl/2019/rookies/rankDetails.php?pid=ppr_post
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2019 Rookie Top 12 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter beef
- Start date
Interseptopus
Footballguy
wow. I disagree a lot. this is great
I'll be able to get almost everyone I want
I'll be able to get almost everyone I want
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't know. I think every individual league is going to be wildly different. I think Jacobs will emerge as a consensus 1.01 for 75% of leagues. But after that......
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
I agree. I submitted mine anyways. It's fun to see where things average out. I might need to tinker but I like my top 12
I think in PPR leagues that are not 3 WR start minimum Jacobs is 1.1 about 95+% of the time. Pass catching RB's with a first round pedigree are hard to ignore. I think will be something pretty close to consensus.
I mainly have concentrated on my FFPC leagues and I got Jacobs at 1, tier 2 has 4 players, tier 3 has 2 players and tier 4 has two players(sorry won't get more specific right now). I got clear and decisive break after those 9, sort of no mans lands for me at the moment after those 9 and tier 4 is really a solid drop from tier 3 for that matter. Different leagues and different formats would change this but one thing for me to say is we talked for months for someone would be the clear cut #1. For me that happened. A lot of speculation said early picks were overrated but that tier 2 and tier 3, which brings me up to player 7, is considerably a higher echelon of player to me than say player 10-12 on my rankings.
Tick
Footballguy
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/rookies.php is a good place to check also. Hakeem Butler makes more sense on this list.
Oh, looks like some of these are pre-draft.
Oh, looks like some of these are pre-draft.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Probably right. Just based off the early poll results here I see some people picking Harry at 1.01.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Also agreed that the 1.01 has become differentiated. I'm still processing this all and am having a hard time with 1.03 through 1.12 and beyond. Different leagues different priorities.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Mine as of this evening:
1.) Jacobs, Josh (RB)
2.) Metcalf, DK (WR)
3.) Arcega-Whiteside, JJ (WR)
4.) Montgomery, David (RB)
5.) Hardman, Mecole (WR)
6.) Harry, N'Keal (WR)
7.) Samuel, Deebo (WR)
8.) Brown, AJ (WR)
9.) Henderson, Darrell (RB)
10.) Sanders, Miles (RB)
11.) Hockenson, TJ (TE)
12.) Murray, Kyler (QB)
1.) Jacobs, Josh (RB)
2.) Metcalf, DK (WR)
3.) Arcega-Whiteside, JJ (WR)
4.) Montgomery, David (RB)
5.) Hardman, Mecole (WR)
6.) Harry, N'Keal (WR)
7.) Samuel, Deebo (WR)
8.) Brown, AJ (WR)
9.) Henderson, Darrell (RB)
10.) Sanders, Miles (RB)
11.) Hockenson, TJ (TE)
12.) Murray, Kyler (QB)
cloppbeast
Footballguy
1>Jacobs, 2>Harry, 3>M. Brown, 4>Hockenson, 5>M. Sanders, 6>Fant, 7>Hardman, 8>Campbell, 9>A. Brown, 10>Isabella, 11>D Samuel, 12>Metcalf.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Tempted to post mine, but I will wait.
Interesting to see so much variation. What it means is that my draft will not go at all how I think it will.
I have JJAW much higher than most. I am trying to figure out where to put these TEs. Hock or Fant first? Where would I take one in this draft? Initially I had them pegged as late 1sts but with the talent available there, as well as the good talent at TE available later in the draft, I think I may pass in favor of a guy like Isabella.
Interesting to see so much variation. What it means is that my draft will not go at all how I think it will.
I have JJAW much higher than most. I am trying to figure out where to put these TEs. Hock or Fant first? Where would I take one in this draft? Initially I had them pegged as late 1sts but with the talent available there, as well as the good talent at TE available later in the draft, I think I may pass in favor of a guy like Isabella.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
There's been 2 tight ends in the past 10 years taken sooner than Hock. Very significant to me the caliber of prospect compared to the WRs and RBs the NFL passed up.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Seems to be a trend for Detroit. Not sure if that is a good thing.
ETA: I do agree that Hock is a talent worth a 1st round pick. Just trying to figure out where to put him. I've had him from 4 down to 10
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matuski
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Pettigrew wasn’t terrible, blocked well, and had some ok receiving seasons but was never some epic 1st rd te pick.
Ebron was a receiving te with suspect hands and should have never been drafted so early. I squarely blame joe Lombardi for that pick.
Hockenson is more complete than both of them. He blocks as well as ‘grew did, he’s as athletic as ebron, but with better skills. Ebron relied on his physical tools and didn’t work as hard as he should have early on- he’s admitted as much, and perhaps he’s turned a corner now. I won’t blame stafford or the Detroit game plan for either players fantasy ineffectiveness.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
If Metcalf falls to 1.10 or later I will shat my pants with joy in my leagues where I have late 1st rounders. Yeah I know he doesn't run all the routes but he probably ended up with the best QB possible and its not like he has a ton of competition either.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He won't be on my team then. Oh well.
His value is fueled by pre-draft hype, which should evaporate when the draft takes place. I was thinking 12 might be a little early in fact. He was what, the 16th FF position player taken?
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ffmail4me
Footballguy
I think I'm not alone when saying where players land has a huge bearing on success, at least out of the gate. I was sure before the draft I'd want Brown before Metcalf, but Mariota vs Wilson makes this a very different story now.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Even though I believe Hock > Fant as a complete TE, fantasy wise Fant might be a better pick.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
True. Great landing spots are great and pretty obvious. Harry, Jacobs, Campbell, JJAW, and Hardman got really lucky. You could call Deebo Samuel mildly fortunate as well. I wouldn't put Butler in that category. It could end up fantastic, but it's far from definite.
More importantly though, there's a lot of bias here that doesn't exist with draft capital, which has statistical correlation. Just my opinion, Butler should not be going ahead of any 2nd round wide receiver, specifically Isabella.
Just one more thing too, situations can change pretty quickly.
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AJ Brown was my #1 player coming into this draft. The landing spot is awful. That being said, I think one of two things happens in the very near future. Either Mariota turns his career around, or the Titans will move in another direction at QB. My guess is on #2. I’ll take a comparable player in a more favorable situation (Harry) over him, but I’m not dropping down talent tiers to take other guys just because they landed in more favorable spots. Situations change quickly in the NFL
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Hock got a boost by his blocking ability and was drafted by a team who is intent on running the ball. I can agree with you on this. Although good blocking wont hurt him in the passing game either.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
The other side of that is sometimes GMs get it wrong. 21 WRs were drafted before Antonio Brown.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Access your crystal ball and tell me which ones they missed this year. I hope its Butler because I love the guy.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
If I can be convinced that the Eagles won't stay with RBBC I can see bumping Sanders to 5 or 6. When I made this list I was thinking that I like the chances Gurley is close to done more than I like the chances the Eagles will make Sanders their bellcow or something closer to it than the split they've been running. Admittedly this is maybe high for Henderson if he simply splits time with Gurley. I just have this feeling like Henderson is a league winner, if Gurley is spent by the fantasy playoffs again. I don't think that proposition is necessarily more or less likely than Philly moving away from the RBBC. So working this out as I type I will bump Sanders based on a clearly better defined floor than Henderson, but I think Henderson's upside is to be the lead back of the Rams before we know it. I'll say this, any Gurley owners (I have never had him anywhere) would be strong candidates to reach for Henderson before 9 here on my list. If I had Gurley I would be thinking of Henderson a heck of a lot earlier.
Where I'm at this morning (PPR):
1.01 Jacobs
1.02 Harry
------------
1.03 Metcalf
1.04 Hollywood Brown
1.05 Montgomery
1.06 Hock
1.07 Campbell
1.08 Deebo
1.09 JAW
1.10 Sanders
1.11 Fant
1.12 AJ Brown
-Clear top two
- Big fall for AJ Brown. Awful situation. Interesting that both Ole Miss WRs went so low, but I think Metcalf has a great one.
-I think people are overthinking the Hollywood Brown situation. There isn't a lot of competition and Lamar will continue to grow as a passer. Kid is a burner and seems like a very hard working guy.
-Campbell/Deebo/JAW/Sanders could really go in any order.
1.01 Jacobs
1.02 Harry
------------
1.03 Metcalf
1.04 Hollywood Brown
1.05 Montgomery
1.06 Hock
1.07 Campbell
1.08 Deebo
1.09 JAW
1.10 Sanders
1.11 Fant
1.12 AJ Brown
-Clear top two
- Big fall for AJ Brown. Awful situation. Interesting that both Ole Miss WRs went so low, but I think Metcalf has a great one.
-I think people are overthinking the Hollywood Brown situation. There isn't a lot of competition and Lamar will continue to grow as a passer. Kid is a burner and seems like a very hard working guy.
-Campbell/Deebo/JAW/Sanders could really go in any order.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
So many questions. Your ranking list is very curious, uninterested in draft status. I would ask why you have M. Brown outside of your top 12 except I have a good idea of your answer already.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Would people feel differently if Tennessee moved on from Mariota to a vet like dalton instead? I feel like that team has just about everything it needs except a good qb. Is MM what he is at this point or can he still progress? I haven’t looked at his contract to see if that would even be feasible, but brown and Davis seem like a solid young tandem to work with.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Everybody has Metcalf so high still. I don't get it.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Have you ever watched Wilson scramble? I don't see anyone covering this guy for as long as will be necessary. If not here or KC he probably falls to 8 or so for me.
-OZ-
Footballguy
If MM stays he healthy for at year it will definitely be 1.
Unfortunately I'm starting to doubt whether he can stay healthy.
And that gets us into the discussion of what we don't know. I follow and ex-scout and current scout on twitter and both of them claim that AB fell due to character concerns. I called both of them out as BS, that they just missed and are now making excuses, but it is true that we don't know all the medicals, possible drug test, if these guys interview like blockheads,etc,etc. When players like Butler, Harmon and Rodney Anderson fall it might be that we overvalued them but when the drop is that severe it's usually due to something off the field we just don't have access to know.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Brown could make it in still, my list is fluid and represents my first crack at it post draft. No I am not crazy about Baltimore as a landing spot, I just think there are other receivers in others spots I prefer more. And a couple RBs, TEs and Murray.
Not sure what you meant by the bolded. If you meant don't care about what spots I'm drafting in, then yeah ok fair enough. Did you mean my list doesn't give respect to where these guys were drafted in the NFL? Also fair just not sure which.
It's a question of volume. Metcalf and Wilson's skill sets are a match but it's concerning that a WR can be as wildly efficient as Lockett and still LEAD the team with 77 targets.
ETA-he only had 71 targets which did not lead the team. Baldwin's 73 did.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well it's a question of both, and yeah the lack of volume is the major counter argument. But I can see him making big plays regularly. KC would have been instant 1.01 for me, Seattle is definitely a worse spot based on the run first philosophy. I'm just not sure any of the other WR spots are sexy enough for me to put someone at 1.02. Unless I need another RB bad enough to get talked into Montgomery.
Put another way, if Metcalf had gone to KC I'd have him by a very wide margin over Jacobs at 1.01. By going to Seattle I have Jacobs by a wide margin over Metcalf at 1.02. He actually dropped a lot in my mind. But nobody else jumped up enough. JJAW maybe. I like Harry but hate Brady. I love Brown and had him as the runaway WR1, but I hate the Tenn spot. Wilson>>>>>Mariota. Who else? Sanders? Not today. Climbing my board, though. Who else? Who is going to step in on day 1 and make more plays than Metcalf in Seattle?
Huge year for MM, last year of his contract. Been a hard guy to judge, hurt a lot and lack of weapons. That nerve issue he played with last year never really gave him a chance, I don't feel comfortable saying he can't still progress and show more. This is one of those WR situations which does seem a little down now but should work itself out. They heavily addressed getting him weapons, if he can't utilize the weapons and progress they'll move on. Titans really like him and would like to see him earn an extension but if he fails to show more next year his time as their starting QB should be over.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I don’t ever remember having this little excitement for a rookie draft. The 2nd round starts in the 1st round this year.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
This is not a logical argument. Plenty of WRs have underwhelmed in Seattle despite the fact that I have watched Wilson scramble.
Not how I see it. Most years I tend to run right around 7-9 players I give a first round fantasy grade. The WR class of of 2014 was rare exception, other than that year the highest I've had was 11(2017). I'm at a solid 7 right now which is fairly in line especially since two players just barely missed the cut.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's dynasty though. Wilson had 427 attempts last year but 553 the year before. I don't think Schottenheimer lasts that long in Seattle and I don't expect the highest paid QB in the NFL to be last in the league in pass attempts every year.
I think eventually Seattle will be forced to give up on this whole "we're going to run the ball and play defense" thing when they no longer have a HoF running back or a particularly good defense.
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ffmail4me
Footballguy
He was forced to throw that much because they could not run, that's why they took a RB in round one, they don't want Wilson throwing that much.
Russell Wilson has been a starting QB for 7 years and he has one WR who has cracked 100 targets. Baldwin with a high of 125 and average of around 114 during his 3 fairly big run but I think we can all agree Baldin had a lot more routes he could run.
Low volume QB with a limited route tree WR=low targets. I can't see it any other way.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I absolutely agree. Each has promise but also some variables that could delay/hurt fantasy development.
I like Sanders & Debo but JAW looks like he will have opportunities.
TE’s are a crap shoot. Heard rumor NEP made offer for Irv.... been traveling & missed most of yesterday’s news
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
playing around this is my top20 so far: still tweeking. on have a 10man keeper draft going on right now.....doesn't really apply to true dynasty....those start in about 2 weeks or so
1Josh Jacobs - OAK
2David Montgomery - CHI
3Miles Sanders - Philly
4K.Neal Harry - NEP
5DK Metcalf - Sea
6Mecole Hardman - KC
7Parris Campbell - INDY
8AJ Brown - Tenn
9JJAWS - Philly
10Kyler Murray - Arz
11Noah Fant - DEN
12TJ Hock - DET
13Marquis Brown - Balt
14Deebo Samuel - SF
15Andy Isabella - Arz
16Miles Boykin - Balt
17Devin Singletary - BUFF
18Hakeem Butler - Arz
19Dwayne Haskins - Was
20DionTAE Johnson - Pitt
1Josh Jacobs - OAK
2David Montgomery - CHI
3Miles Sanders - Philly
4K.Neal Harry - NEP
5DK Metcalf - Sea
6Mecole Hardman - KC
7Parris Campbell - INDY
8AJ Brown - Tenn
9JJAWS - Philly
10Kyler Murray - Arz
11Noah Fant - DEN
12TJ Hock - DET
13Marquis Brown - Balt
14Deebo Samuel - SF
15Andy Isabella - Arz
16Miles Boykin - Balt
17Devin Singletary - BUFF
18Hakeem Butler - Arz
19Dwayne Haskins - Was
20DionTAE Johnson - Pitt
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I am hoping you are right, and I am sure some of these guys will turn out. I just cannot remember entering a rookie draft where I didn’t have at least 3-4 guys that I really targeted. This year I would be fine with not having any picks.
