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2020 Spring/Summer Severe Weather (1 Viewer)

Nathan R. Jessep said:
May want to keep a close eye on things between then and now.

State of emergency declared --- 14inches of rain possible Friday/Saturday :eek:  
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This is from the NHC and is a simplified version of the rainfall forecast the WPC puts out.  But you get the idea.  And in case anyone isn't great at reading maps, NO is just below the circle lake in the lower right corner of LA in the 6-10 inches zone.  But really close to the 10 to 15 zone.  So.  There's that.  At least New Orleans is pretty elevated and isn't susceptible to flooding.

 
TheIronSheik said:
This is from the NHC and is a simplified version of the rainfall forecast the WPC puts out.  But you get the idea.  And in case anyone isn't great at reading maps, NO is just below the circle lake in the lower right corner of LA in the 6-10 inches zone.  But really close to the 10 to 15 zone.  So.  There's that.  At least New Orleans is pretty elevated and isn't susceptible to flooding.
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yep, and river flooding is also a concern now

Thankfully the state had a bit of a break from rains over the last few weeks, which allowed our river levels to fall a good bit. If this thing had hit 2-3 weeks ago, it would have been a scary flood situation for most of the state, IMO. 

 
All of a sudden we're getting pounded in Nola. 100 year storm stuff (excluding hurricanes I guess), and...

... Saturday the Mississippi River may topple!! Yeay!

I have no idea how that happens as we have TWO spillways supposed to protect against just this. Insane.

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
Local weather guru is predicting it to be a Tropical Storm to hit southern Louisiana (of course, still plenty of time for adjustment, this far out). Main concerns at this time are heavy rainfall. 

That being said, some streets in New Orleans are flooding right now as I type this. Not a good pre-storm event. 
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This is farked up. People stuck on the expressway and flooding not seen before (again outside hurricane events).

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
All of a sudden we're getting pounded in Nola. 100 year storm stuff (excluding hurricanes I guess), and...

... Saturday the Mississippi River may topple!! Yeay!

I have no idea how that happens as we have TWO spillways supposed to protect against just this. Insane.
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I know! This was crazy. Stay safe, GB.

 
If you live in NO, you want this thing to hit you or east.  For a TS, most of the rainfall will be on the east side, along with the worst storm surge.  So if it hits where the models currently show, it would be terrible for NO.

 
UKMET still insisting on a landfall near Houston.  And with extra time in the GOM with little to no wind shear, it would be an impressive hurricane.  Nothing is off the table at this point.

 
TheIronSheik said:
If you live in NO, you want this thing to hit you or east.  For a TS, most of the rainfall will be on the east side, along with the worst storm surge.  So if it hits where the models currently show, it would be terrible for NO.
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Thanks Cat1's don't scare us, but now that I think of it I should probably do some grocery run now.

I don't really get how this SOB is in the armpit of Fla and might circle back to us but hey life on the Gulf.

And Katrina hit east and all it did was do a different effect of churning up water in the Lake. I think what has people concerned right now is the River, because no one alive has ever, ever seen this situation.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
Thanks Cat1's don't scare us, but now that I think of it I should probably do some grocery run now.

I don't really get how this SOB is in the armpit of Fla and might circle back to us but hey life on the Gulf.

And Katrina hit east and all it did was do a different effect of churning up water in the Lake. I think what has people concerned right now is the River, because no one alive has ever, ever seen this situation.
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1.  A Cat 1 is extremely deadly.  I can't tell you how to react to them, but please don't try to convince others to not take a Cat 1 seriously.

2. Tropical systems go where there is the least resistance.  It's only path right now is to the west where it will eventually run into high pressure and move north before being picked up by a westward moving weather system.

3. Katrina was a hurricane.  There is rain all around a hurricane.  A TS will mainly have all of it's main parts to the east.  

4. No one has ever seen it rain in NO?  

 
TheIronSheik said:
1.  A Cat 1 is extremely deadly.  I can't tell you how to react to them, but please don't try to convince others to not take a Cat 1 seriously.

2. Tropical systems go where there is the least resistance.  It's only path right now is to the west where it will eventually run into high pressure and move north before being picked up by a westward moving weather system.

3. Katrina was a hurricane.  There is rain all around a hurricane.  A TS will mainly have all of it's main parts to the east.  

4. No one has ever seen it rain in NO?  
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I appreciate you, I'm just saying how my city behaves in them.

4. - Eh, how do I put this, we have seen lots of bad, tropical weather. This city has had legendary floods, we know them by years. But this has been bad for a non-hurricane event. This place has markers and everyone knows what has been where and this has been crazy today. People stuck on the interstate.

The River is the legendary boogie man here. It hasn't flooded since 1848. Before the ACOE existed we were building levees. But the official doomsday scenario is that the River is near crest - and we're there - and a storm pushes water up the river and into the city, the super-doomsday scenario is it happens on the Lake at the same time. I've never remembered the first condition existing and we're there. 

 
arrow1 said:
Update?
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There's kind of an unwritten rule in weather forecasting that if models show a result that is something that we've rarely ever seen, then they don't predict that.  It makes sense because models aren't accurate and can be way off sometimes.  There are times where the models show something big and it actually happens, like in the case of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall totals.  Mets will show people the models but warn that a lot would have to go right to see totals like the models show.  This happens a lot in the northeast for big snowstorms.  Models will show 3 feet of snow and we'll end up with 18 inches.  Still a lot, but not quite the 3 feet predicted.

That said, current models are showing some places in LA getting over 2 feet of rain.  That would be devastating.  Will it actually happen?  Maybe?  But the point is that there is going to be a lot of flooding.  It's most likely going to be bad.  

And just like with Harvey, it has nothing to do with GW.  It's simply a slow moving tropical system.  Just want to address that before every news outlet starts posting 100 news articles about the end of the world coming because of GW.  

 
Almost all of PA in the SLIGHT risk category.  Wind will be the big thing today but there could be a few supercells out ahead of the line that could spin up a tornado or two.

 
Storms last night hammered my area and just about 3 miles to the west of me.  We were on the edge of the heavy stuff.  Got 3 inches of rain in about a 90 minute period.  Places just 3 miles west got close to 5 inches in the same time period.  Roads flooded and were washed out.  And just a couple miles from my house, a pregnant lady and her son were all killed in flood waters as her car was swept away by the quickly rising water.

 
Sun might actually be coming out after a week of gray skies and off and on torrential rains here in Tampa. It was a nice change of pace compared to the usual heat and humidity. 

 
Drove I-29 from KC to Omaha the other day.  The area still flooded along that route is amazing.  You can see that it is down a few feet from the high, but still a lot of flooded farm land and houses on islands.  

 
belljr said:
we got our third tornado warning in a week  :unsure:
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Tornado confirmed in Mt. Laurel yesterday.  EF1.  Second tornado to hit that area in just 5 days.  

Fun fact:  The one 6 days ago was actually a landspout (still counts as a tornado).  It basically a tornado that doesn't form from a mesocyclone, which is how most tornadoes form.  They don't really show up on radar because there's no rotation in the clouds that start the twister.  Similar to a waterspout, they are not as powerful as a true tornado.  But like most things, people hear "not as powerful" and take that as "harmless."  In the security video that captured this landspout, you can see how it easily picks up a car and flips it over.  

So stay away from landspouts and waterspouts even if the person you're with tries to tell you they're harmless.  

 
Remnants of Barry are going to move up and over the northeast Wednesday.  I think the Philly area only catches the edge, but should still be some decent rain and possible thunderstorms.  WPC has excessive rainfall looking like this tomorrow.  2+ inches is a nice general average for those areas in green and yellow.  Then, once Barry moves offshore, the real fun begins.

"Are we going to make it hot in the northeast, Barry?  Yes we are, Other Barry.  Yes, we are."

The low pressure formerly known as Barry will pump in tropical heat and humidity.  Highs from Thursday to Friday will top out near 100 degrees.  And along with that heat will be very high humidity.  Like humidity we haven't felt in a long time.  Heat indexes could reach 120 degrees on Saturday.

Stay hydrated.  And stay safe.

 
Something you don't hear often:

I'm heading down to Texas on Saturday, which works out nice, because it'll be good to get away from this heat and get someplace cooler.

:confused:

 
I did see that the winchill in Philly on Saturday will be near 110 degrees.  So bundle up if you're headed outside.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Tornado confirmed in Mt. Laurel yesterday.  EF1.  Second tornado to hit that area in just 5 days.  

Fun fact:  The one 6 days ago was actually a landspout (still counts as a tornado).  It basically a tornado that doesn't form from a mesocyclone, which is how most tornadoes form.  They don't really show up on radar because there's no rotation in the clouds that start the twister.  Similar to a waterspout, they are not as powerful as a true tornado.  But like most things, people hear "not as powerful" and take that as "harmless."  In the security video that captured this landspout, you can see how it easily picks up a car and flips it over.  

So stay away from landspouts and waterspouts even if the person you're with tries to tell you they're harmless.  
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yep

 
Fun day today.  We have an Excessive Heat Warning.  A Flash Flood Watch.  And we're in the SLIGHT risk category for severe weather.  

 
Possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming for PA/NJ/NY area.  The main threat is wind, and I think they'll probably elect to not issue a Watch but instead just issue warnings as needed.  But that's just my opinion. 

Again, these storms have a high potential of training, so heavy rain will be of the "feast or famine" variety today.  You could see sunny skies all day.  Or you could see 5 inches of rain.  And those two areas could be 3 miles apart.  Do you feel lucky?  Well, do ya, punk?

 
TheIronSheik said:
Possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming for PA/NJ/NY area.  The main threat is wind, and I think they'll probably elect to not issue a Watch but instead just issue warnings as needed.  But that's just my opinion. 

Again, these storms have a high potential of training, so heavy rain will be of the "feast or famine" variety today.  You could see sunny skies all day.  Or you could see 5 inches of rain.  And those two areas could be 3 miles apart.  Do you feel lucky?  Well, do ya, punk?
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It's like they wait for me to post.  :lol:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for the area I just mentioned.

 
Weather might cause something interesting to happen for the Yankees game tonight.  They play a double header and their first game is in a rain delay.  I know this used to be the rule, but if the weather clears up, they second game can't be called for lateness or anything like that.  So game 2 of the double header could start around midnight if the rain delay went long and then cleared out.  I know that used to be the rule and I don't think they changed it.  Will be interesting to see what time Game 2 gets started.  If I'm remembering it correctly, it happened to the Phillies back in the 90's and the second game didn't start until after midnight AND went extra innings.  Might have been the 93 season.  

 
The most violent lightning I’ve ever seen just rolled thru Tampa (Lightning capital of the world)....60 straight minutes of explosions.  Calmer now but still going 2 hours in.

 
we got ####### blasted today

lost a small tree. power lines and trees down all over the place.

i've heard people say of storms that they sounded like a train. now i know what they mean. that was bananas.

 
Short storm but there are telephone poles and trees down everywhere

Power out for about 4 hours now

 
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Supposed to be leaving for a trip at 11am.

Wife's car died yesterday at 4:30. So I drive an hour from work, get car started in middle of storm.  Power is out a 5pm.  I replace battery, hope that's it. Takes 3 hours if you include travel time from wife pickup to my house, going to auto parts store driving back and replacing between rain storms.

Currently still no power, at least it's not 100 degrees. Wife is on way to laundry mat to finish laundry for clothes on our trip. 

Don't think we are leaving at 11

:tfp:

 
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SLIGHT risk for my area today.  Potential is there for some decent storms.  As we hit August, the Summer season of storms starts to wind down.  At least the severe aspect of it, for our area.  Won't be much longer until we start to talk about snowfall forecasts. 

 
Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for a lot of the east coast.  Most of these storms will be slooooooooow movers, which means where it rains, it could rain a lot.

 
Severe line moving through Chesco right now has the potential for a lot of CTG lightning, wind and hail.  Nasty little line.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for a lot of the east coast.  Most of these storms will be slooooooooow movers, which means where it rains, it could rain a lot.
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Killing flights schedules...

 
Severe Thunderstorm Watches should go up soon for almost the entire east coast.  Most of the severe threat will focus around severe wind.  But heavy rain and CTG lightning will be an issue, too.

 
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