Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Raps win in Philly 
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2021-22 NBA Thread: Bill Simmons furiously recording 2.5 hour long pod about how Boston is still better than Golden State (1 Viewer)
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caustic
Footballguy
Can't help but feel like we're headed towards a Suns/Bucks Finals rematch. The Heat have awesome defensive versatility, but can they win in the postseason with a star SF who's shooting 19% from 3? The Nets won't have their second best player for 50% of games, and may not have their third best player at all. The Sixers have a great 3-headed monster of Harden/Embiid/Maxey with absolutely zero depth. They struggle to keep up with teams that run, and Embiid's health is always a ticking time bomb.
The Bucks don't have any GLARING weaknesses like that. Without PJ Tucker, they don't really have the personnel to roll out the Giannis-at-5 lineups that were so killer during last year's playoffs, but that's about it. Giannis is also better than he was at the beginning of the 2021 postseason. I don't think I'd favor another team over them in a 7 game series right now.
caustic
Footballguy
I think I'd stack up the East like this right now:
Tier 1 -- Top contenders
Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat
Tier 2 -- Serious contenders with serious flaws
Philadelphia 76ers
Tier 3 -- Maybe not true contenders, but you certainly don't want to play them
Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets
Tier 4 -- Solid regular season teams
Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors
Tier 5 -- Not this year
Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets
Tier 1 -- Top contenders
Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat
Tier 2 -- Serious contenders with serious flaws
Philadelphia 76ers
Tier 3 -- Maybe not true contenders, but you certainly don't want to play them
Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets
Tier 4 -- Solid regular season teams
Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors
Tier 5 -- Not this year
Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Zion officially shelved for the season. Somewhat relieved actually. Whether we end up keeping him or trading him, I think this serves our team better. And we still have a shot at the play-in as of right now. Can't say I saw that coming after our horrendous start to the year.
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Milwaukee is a machine right now. Everything clicking at the exact right time.
They might have the best 2nd unit the NBA.
Portis, Connaughton and Hill could start for multiple teams.
They might have the best 2nd unit the NBA.
Portis, Connaughton and Hill could start for multiple teams.
gruecd
Footballguy
gruecd
Footballguy
EVERYBODY underestimated how important Brook Lopez is to this team. He literally changes the entire complexion. Bucks suddenly have really good size with Brook, Giannis, Portis, and Serge Ibaka. Jevon Carter (claimed after he was waived by Brooklyn) is an absolute bulldog on defense, and it's gonna be hard for him to crack the playoff rotation with a bench mob already consisting of Portis, Connaughton, Hill, Wes Matthews, and Ibaka. Team is deeeeeeeep.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Yeah I saw that. Smh. Of course the national talking heads were all over it. lol I'm interested to hear what our team insiders have to say about it.Apparently he's good enough to post a dunk video to Instagram...
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I piggy backed off of your list and made some minor changes to reflect how I see the Eastern conference. The bulls have something like a 2-17 record against teams that have better records than them. Lonzo being out has really hurt them a ton. I think they are a franchise that took a step in the right direction this year—but I think they have clearly fallen out of true Eastern Conference champion contention this season.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
So far, not much... They kinda echo my thoughts which are, ok he can jump again. Great. We know he's a freak athlete. That def doesn't mean he's in game playing shape.
Also of note, Kira Lewis Jr. has been rehabbing an injury AWAY FROM THE TEAM, and not a peep about it from the media.
Doesn't get as many clicks as Zion news.
gruecd
Footballguy
Bonehead Stephen A. Smith says the Celtics are the team to beat in the East. Yeah, OK, dude...
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Kev4029
Footballguy
Portis has been starting for Milwaukee all year until last night, so I can buy him as a mediocre starter for a mediocre team. Connaughton is a nice role player that can play a little D and shoots a decent number of threes with very good accuracy, so again, maybe a 5th starter on certain teams as a nice role player. But George Hill? He's not an especially good defender any more and he's averaging 9.8/4.5/3.4 per 36 and can't hit a 3 this year. He probably shouldn't be a rotation player on a playoff team, certainly not a starter. They have basically two strong bench pieces and a waterfall of #### otherwise.
Don't let one good game from the bench make you think otherwise.
offdee
Footballguy
Portis is an integral part of the team's success and he's actually pretty deadly from the 3 point line. And just his energy and hustle makes the team go. LOTS of intangibles and perfect fit for this squad.
Kev4029
Footballguy
Demarcus Cousins picked up his 12th technical foul last night. So I got curious with how much more frequent he receives a tech vs the rest of the league. I took the top 14 in technical fouls:
If Cousins was a starting player, he would get a technical every 1.5 games or so. If we was playing prime Cousins minutes (circa 2015 or so), he would end up with 45 technicals in a season (assuming no suspension).
My favorite part of this list is that it encompasses probably 10 of the 12 or so least likeable players in the NBA.
If Cousins was a starting player, he would get a technical every 1.5 games or so. If we was playing prime Cousins minutes (circa 2015 or so), he would end up with 45 technicals in a season (assuming no suspension).
My favorite part of this list is that it encompasses probably 10 of the 12 or so least likeable players in the NBA.
caustic
Footballguy
Playoffs got a bit more interesting.
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania
Sources: Brooklyn Nets star Kyrie Irving will be cleared for home games as New York City will on Thursday change private sector vaccine mandate to allow exemption for athletes and entertainers in workplace. Unvaccinated Yankees and Mets players also now eligible for home games.
5:32 PM · Mar 23, 2022
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania
Sources: Brooklyn Nets star Kyrie Irving will be cleared for home games as New York City will on Thursday change private sector vaccine mandate to allow exemption for athletes and entertainers in workplace. Unvaccinated Yankees and Mets players also now eligible for home games.
5:32 PM · Mar 23, 2022
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Looks like we have new title favorites (IMO). And that's me assuming they don't even get Ben back at any point the rest of the way.
caustic
Footballguy
Without Simmons I'm not sure if they have a championship quality defense -- currently being picked apart by the Ja-less Grizzlies.
Obviously didn't have a great defense with KD/Kyrie/Harden either, but their full strength offense was nuclear enough to make that matter less. With this news I'd bump them up to tier 2 with Philly. 
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Fun seeing IT get a run with the Hornets for the rest of the season.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Coming into tonight—the Grizzlies were 14-2 without Ja. If you prorated that over the course of a season—that’s like 70-71 wins. I’m not saying that they would win 70 games without Ja—but I am saying that Memphis without Ja is still really good. Let’s keep in mind that the Nets are also playing tonight with no Dragic, Curry or Lemarcus Aldridge. Don’t sleep on the Nets. They barely lost to the Bucks in a 7 game series last year with mainly Durant and Kyrie carrying the load.Without Simmons I'm not sure if they have a championship quality defense -- currently being picked apart by the Ja-less Grizzlies.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Healthy Cavs are tier 3, but can they dodge the play in and will they all actually be healthy come round 1? This is just gaining experience and laying the foundation for next year, but this team at full strength will be a tough out
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
No shot I'd put the Heat in Tier 1. Wouldn't even be in my Tier 2 personally.
And that was before this tonight. https://mobile.twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/1506806985747939332
I'd put Mil clear tier 1. And then Brooklyn and Toronto (if both healthy) Tier 2. Getting hard to ignore how well Boston's been playing and would probably sneak them in here.
Love Herro (and he's ready to be face of franchise IMO) but I don't see Miami as a contender at all personally as constructed
Bulls would be at the bottom for me. Not playing well at all. Like they've already ran out of gas.
And that was before this tonight. https://mobile.twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/1506806985747939332
I'd put Mil clear tier 1. And then Brooklyn and Toronto (if both healthy) Tier 2. Getting hard to ignore how well Boston's been playing and would probably sneak them in here.
Love Herro (and he's ready to be face of franchise IMO) but I don't see Miami as a contender at all personally as constructed
Bulls would be at the bottom for me. Not playing well at all. Like they've already ran out of gas.
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Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Ayton absolutely abused Towns tonight. Wish he brought that effort every night. Suns beat the lowly perennial losing TWolves
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Celtics are boot stomping everyone on their schedule. Like up by 20 after a quarter every night these days. People not putting them in their Tier I haven’t been watching them play. Suffocating defense combined with top flight ball movement and solid three point shooting = blowout wins.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Miami's a great team without a superstar. Butler is in that "great sidekick/Robin" category, Herro still has growing to do. Playoffs come down to how far your stars can take you. Their ceiling is the ECF IMO, for this year at least.No shot I'd put the Heat in Tier 1. Wouldn't even be in my Tier 2 personally.
And that was before this tonight. https://mobile.twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/1506806985747939332
I'd put Mil clear tier 1. And then Brooklyn and Toronto (if both healthy) Tier 2. Getting hard to ignore how well Boston's been playing and would probably sneak them in here.
Love Herro (and he's ready to be face of franchise IMO) but I don't see Miami as a contender at all personally as constructed
Bulls would be at the bottom for me. Not playing well at all. Like they've already ran out of gas.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Your stubbornness towards Ayton is unfounded. Dude had one bad game a while back—you called him awful for it—and since then—he’s been on an absolute tear—and the Suns keep winning—even with Paul and others out. It’s okay to admit you are wrong. Ayton is one of the best young bigs in the game. Even really good players have off nights. That’s normal over the course of a season.Ayton absolutely abused Towns tonight. Wish he brought that effort every night. Suns beat the lowly perennial losing TWolves
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I'm a season ticket holder.....it's not one bad game. Have seen every single game. Not box score watched. He's been replaceable level for most of his 4 years with the team. Suns have won (with a higher win percentage) whether Aytons been out there or not......
There's a reason Suns aren't going to pay him max money. His motor is way to hit or miss. It isn't just "one bad game". And he plays the most replaceable position in the game and can't get his own shot.
I don't know what you're trying to accomplish here TBH. You're not going to change my mind what I've seen every game for 4 years
Frankly you're weird Adiosjvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Lots of people attend games that don’t know basketball. I’ve played basketball for 25 years. If you think Ayton is a replaceable player—then it’s not worth having a discussion with you. He’s averaging 17-10 on nearly 65% from the field and is hitting 30% of his 3’s. I’ve seen enough Suns games to know that sometimes they get so enamored with watching Booker and CP3 do their thing that they sometimes overlook the fact that they have a really good big guy. KAT has arguably been the third best big man in the league this year after Jokic and Embiid and Ayton just destroyed him. You think that’s just some fluke? I never said Ayton was worth a max contract—but you’re the one that’s weird if you think that he’s some easily replaceable player. You replace him with an average big—the Suns probably still win a lot of regular season games—but they absolutely lose ground from being a legit title contender.I'm a season ticket holder.....it's not one bad game. Have seen every single game. Not box score watched. He's been replaceable level for most of his 4 years with the team. Suns have won (with a higher win percentage) whether Aytons been out there or not......
There's a reason Suns aren't going to pay him max money. His motor is way to hit or miss. It isn't just "one bad game". And he plays the most replaceable position in the game and can't get his own shot.
I don't know what you're trying to accomplish here TBH. You're not going to change my mind what I've seen every game for 4 years
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Yep. I have them below Boston. Time Lords been a huge difference and awesome defensively
Thought it'd have been tragic if they split Tatum/Brown. And they stuck by Time Lord. Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. Obviously Tatum/brown have had faults over time and ball movement is actually the one and only reservation I'd have not to put them atop the next best team to Milwaukee. They're certainly playing as well as anyone in the league.
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ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Absolutely. I try to limit my Time Lord admiration posts cause I could do it every post, but he's been amazing.Yep. I have them below Boston. Time Lords been a huge difference and awesome defensively
Thought it'd have been tragic if they split Tatum/Brown. And they stuck by Time Lord. Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. Obviously Tatum/brown have had faults over time and ball movement is actually the one and only reservation I'd have not to put them atop the next best team to Milwaukee. They're certainly playing as well as anyone in the league.
So nice to have interior defense on this team again. Had years of guys like Daniel Theiss as our 5 with that "positionless basketball" crap Brad was trying to push for years. Drove me nuts.
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
If he played like he did tonight regularly he'd have gotten paid last offseason. I think the Suns were smart to let the league set his market and have option to match.Ayton absolutely abused Towns tonight. Wish he brought that effort every night. Suns beat the lowly perennial losing TWolves
They're also going to have to pay Cam Johnson when the time comes too. They've already committed to Paul/Booker/Bridges long term so there's really not a lot of room for error at this point. Don't fault them for doing so. All have been more valuable to the team than Ayton. They've been able to plug a center for minimal money and win.
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Ayton absolutely abused Towns tonight. Wish he brought that effort every night. Suns beat the lowly perennial losing TWolves
Wait... is Craig FOR or AGAINST Ayton?
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I've heard they weren't even close to a deal last offseason with him. He was wanting max money (want to say in neighborhood of 5/175) and they were offering money similar for the group of guys the next tier down around $20m/year. It's a HUGE difference and understandable for what Aytons brought to the table to date.
He'll have suitors this offseason. Imagine a team like Detroit flush with cap space will come calling.
caustic
Footballguy
I may be a bit slow to update my priors on the Heat. When Butler first came back from his injury they were absolutely putting teams through the grinder, and it seemed like the theory of their roster was working really well. Tons of defensive versatility and enough offense to make it work. Now I guess Butler has been shooting 9% from 3 since February? Maybe this is the "true" Heat and the earlier version was an aberration.No shot I'd put the Heat in Tier 1. Wouldn't even be in my Tier 2 personally.
And that was before this tonight. https://mobile.twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/1506806985747939332
I'd put Mil clear tier 1. And then Brooklyn and Toronto (if both healthy) Tier 2. Getting hard to ignore how well Boston's been playing and would probably sneak them in here.
Love Herro (and he's ready to be face of franchise IMO) but I don't see Miami as a contender at all personally as constructed
Bulls would be at the bottom for me. Not playing well at all. Like they've already ran out of gas.
Cavs are intriguing. I think that even at full strength their offense is a little too reliant on Garland to win a playoff series this year, but if/when Mobley becomes more of an offensive engine they could be scary.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
He thinks Ayton is awful and that McGee and Biyombo can easily replace him and the Suns would be just as good. He made that comment after one bad game—and since then—the Suns and Ayton have been on a tear—and this is with CP3 and Cam Johnson out for a lot of the games.
https://forums.footballguys.com/topic/798505-2021-22-nba-thread-hbo-debuts-new-show-‘winning-time’-so-that-laker-fans-can-enjoy-a-successful-season/?do=findComment&comment=23915700
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I personally don’t have Ja in my top 3 mvp candidates. He’s missed too many games—and his team actually has a higher winning percentage in those games. I think he’s certainly played well enough to be mentioned in the top 5-8–but I certainly don’t see how you could put him ahead of guys like Jokic, Embiid or Giannis. If those guys missed nearly 20 games—no way their teams are winning at nearly a 0.700 clip in those games imo.
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Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Yikes (didn't know 9% from 3).
Late career Butler scares me. Fiery player you put up with....until he's not good enough to put up with. For the Heats sake, they better hope it's later than sooner (owed 45/48/52m next 3 seasons).
I've just been lower on Heat than most. Best way to put it like Shamrock did above: they lack a superstar. IMO If the Heat win anything, I think it'd be Herro rising to superstar status. (Or at least playing like one for a run)
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Frostillicus
Footballguy
Towns has worked his way into an average defensive center which combined with his offense makes him an an elite player. That being said, I've made a good amount of money betting on the opposing centers points and rebounds this year. It's a huge issue. They had Vanderbilt on Ayton and Towns on Crowder for a big chunk tonight.Ayton absolutely abused Towns tonight. Wish he brought that effort every night. Suns beat the lowly perennial losing TWolves
Frostillicus
Footballguy
And if you watched the game Ayton destroyed the Wolves, not Towns. They tried some things that didn't work. And Phoenix didn't even have cp3. The Wolves are clearly not there just yet.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Here is my take on Miami and why I think they are still a contender in the East. They are a complete team. They do have shooting, they have defensive players, they have talent off of the bench, they have a legit center, and they are well coached. They also have some dawgs in Lowry, Butler and Adebayo. I think their biggest hurdle is understanding what works for them—-and that “what” is physicality. As much as I like Butler, Lowry, and Herro—I think the Heat are the best when Adebayo is playing more of an alpha role and goes back to playing bully ball. If they get back to that—and just use the pieces they have to build around that—I think they will be really tough. If they just try to utilize Adebayo as a tertiary option to Butler, Lowry (or Herro)—-I think they are playing into their opponents hands.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
The wolves have been playing great as of late. They didn’t just lay down and die. The game was chippy and had a slight playoff feel to it. I just think that the Wolves maybe were getting a little too cocky. Frankly—there is no reason why Towns isn’t a better defensive center. He’s agile, quick, long, and can get off of the floor. These are all tools that he utilizes on the offensive end that he can easily use to be a better defender. In general—I think he just plays harder on the offensive end. Thats one of the reasons why Jimmy Butler was frustrated with the Wolves when he was there. With that said—I think that wolves are solid—and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them make it to the second round. It all just depends on their first round matchup. If they play a Warriors team with a hobbled Curry, or possibly a Dallas team, or even a sputtering Utah team—I wouldn’t be shocked to see them win a series.
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
I wouldn't feel comfortable spending that type money on him either. Simply only a couple centers worth that type money. Suns have been great with or without Ayton. Just checked and 19-3 w/o him this year.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
anyone who overlooks the Heat is making a mistake. they've played together less than any other team yet kept the home court in the East, and i wouldnt be surprised if that is more a function of a Spoelstra rope-a-dope than it is injury. like i said, you dont beat a series opponent as much as solve them. the Heat kinda invented the switching & cutting format the Celts are getting so much mileage from, but no one's seen them do it at their best yet, with Dunc & Gabe & Max back in their cages. we'll see how Butler & Lowry's legs hold up at playoff time, but they've been appropriately coddled and there are no back2backs in the postseason.
personally not sure I would want to see Twolves in the post season...Ayton absolutely abused Towns tonight. Wish he brought that effort every night. Suns beat the lowly perennial losing TWolves
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