modogg
Footballguy
Real happy for the kid. The start to his career was so strange glad he worked out whatever it was and will be in the NBA for a bit.
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2022-23 NBA Thread: “you’ll never let me down like the Heat did”, Miami fan says to giant pile of cocaine (2 Viewers)
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Jayrod
Footballguy
The Bucks big 4 is the best in the biz and why they are the clear title favorites right now. Celtics have a shooters chance in the East because of their depth and 3-pt shooting. Milwaukee is just too deep for the Sixers and with Giannis and Lopez both able to guard Embiid and Holiday to handle Harden. In the West, the Suns would need to be clicking on all cylinders, but have the best shot to give them a series if healthy, but that is a big if. Similar to the Sixers, I don't think anyone else has the full squad to beat a healthy Bucks team in a 7 game series. A lot of teams with a star or 2, but no one to match the inside-outside offensive-defensive threats of Giannis-Holiday-Lopez-Middleton plus their extensive bench. If Middleton stayed healthy last season, they'd be looking at a 3-peat.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
What makes the playoffs interesting is having to play the same team over and over again . . . and a lot of series being matchup dependent. BOS matches up better than other teams do against MIL (and they are probably even better suited against the Sixers). They have rotational pieces to wall up GA, make him pretty inefficient, and make him make free throws. Boston can also beat anyone, anywhere if they hit their threes.
But BOS has not played well or fared well against the Cavs or Knicks this year. Really hard to tell which Celtics team will show up in the post season. They have played so many games with key pieces out (and lost), so it's hard to tell if they are in a funk, aren't that good, or will pick things up when they have their usual starting five and substitution rotation set up. Lately, they've had 2-3 starters out and teams have been doubling Tatum. They've been playing two bigs more of late (Kornet and Muscala with Blake Griffin mixed in). That's not a recipe for success offensively or defensively.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
The fact Lopez has started 69 out of 71 Bucks games this season @ 30 minutes per game - after playing just 13 regular season games last season - is incredible. I would not have been the least bit surprised if he'd retired after that. Brook's back doctor is truly the Bucks' MVP this season.
gruecd
Footballguy
For real. I told a buddy that I'm 100% finding the name of his doctor and traveling WHEREVER to see him if I ever need back surgery.
It's still hard to believe how thoroughly and effectively he changed his game after his first 7-8 years in the league.
the moops
Footballguy
5 OT games against those teams, and BOS is 0-5. Crazy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
No Rob Williams in 3 of those, no Smart in one, and no Williams / Horford / Tatum in the other. They have 23 losses . . . 7 in OT and 4 by 1 possession. I don't know how many games they had double digit leads and then faded down the stretch . . . but most of those they were shorthanded. Their 5 starters have missed a combined 95 games. I don't know where that ranks among all the teams, but it seems to me they rarely have played together.
As I mentioned, hard to tell what Boston is these days. Tatum looks tired and a little worn down. At this point, better things happen with White and Brogdon in the lineup than when Smart is in the game. The rotation is also all over the map. Grant Williams will hardly play one night but will get 30+ minutes another. Same thing with other bench guys. They never know if they could play 25+ minutes or sit for 10 days. I can't tell if guys are actually banged up or if they are scheduled load management games, and whether they care that much about winning or losing.
At this point, they could win the title or lose in the first round. Maybe they can start Rob-JB-JT-Al-Smart consistently in the playoffs and work in White and Brogdon. Sprinkle in the other guys along the way based on matchups and foul trouble, and go back to being a wrecking ball. They still have too many lapses when they turn the ball over, don't move the ball, don't play defense, don't switch properly, and have no spacing on offense. Basically, they could be up 20 points and then give up a 25-3 run at any point against any team. People always say that defense and intensity go up in the post season. Celtics fans better hope so, as they have been putting in about 36 minutes of effort lately and look lost the other 12.
Jayrod
Footballguy
I really haven't watched much lately, but even in the weeks prior I got the sense they were coasting. Having played in the Finals and then coming out and dominating the first 3/4 of the schedule I think they are both mentally and physically tired and are just waiting for the playoffs to start.
I have no doubt they will win their first round matchup. Obviously the second round will be a battle which should be the Sixers, who I think they have the advantage on. I'd bet this is their line of thinking as well and it may bite them with a prolonged 1st round series and then they could struggle against the Sixers....either losing there or being too worn out to give the Bucks a real fight.
As fun as the Knicks and Cavs are, neither one is a match for Milwaukee right now. The East feels very set to me and I would be surprised if it isn't a Bucks-Celtics or Bucks-Sixers ECF.
I have no idea what to expect in the West from the play-in to the first round. I wouldn't be surprised if any of the top 7 teams made the Finals (except maybe the Kings...which would be fantastic).
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Randle with 52 thru 3. 10 off Carmelo's record.
Deamon
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
He's gone cold now. Won't hit it.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Da Bowls win in Philly 
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Don't go on a late season run and you won't have to worry about it. The '24 Cavs will benefit from a '23 series with the Bucks, but there's a must win series beforehand to get through first.
Jayrod
Footballguy
64% participation so far this season. May push that up to 68% if he plays in every remaining game.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Following up on what I posted yesterday, since going 0-3 to start the season last year with this group, BOS has gone 32-5 (.865) in the regular season when starting Tatum-Brown-RWilliams-Smart-Horford. Things didn't go as well when Rob Williams tried coming back from injury in the playoffs last year (they went 5-7 with that group as starters). The obvious question is how likely will they be to be able to play those 5 guys at the same time? They've only started 5 games together this season and went 4-1. The one loss was to the Nets . . . BOS was up 28 points when Williams left with an injury halfway through the second quarter, and they ended up losing by 10. BOS will go as far as their health will take them.
gruecd
Footballguy
Dude finishes with 57 and they STILL lose to a Minnesota team playing without KAT and Ant. Inexcusable.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
My understanding is he has an ongoing foot injury/issue, which the team and his personal doctors have decided requires not playing in back to backs. They "let him" choose one back to back in which to play both games. He'd probably play in more games if these doctors "let" him.
the moops
Footballguy
Meh. Better teams lose all the time. It’s a long season and **** happens.
gruecd
Footballguy
That attitude is fine in December, but not so much in late March with only 10 games left, and the difference between the 5/6 seeds is playing the Cavs or playing the Sixers...
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
think you may be selling the sixers short. wouldn't surprise me if they end up #2.
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identikit
Footballguy
Almost like a team at full strength losing big at home to a sub-500 team on a 10 game losing streak, bromigo.
Inexcusable!
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Deamon
Footballguy
only half a game back, I could see it. Boston/Philly would be a great series if both make it past round 1.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Given their schedules I don't think the 6ers are locked into the 3. Last week's L may end up being the difference maker even if the Cavs finish hot though.
Deamon
Footballguy
They're a lot closer to the 2 seed than the 4 seed.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I didn’t like the look of the play involving Paul George. His knee pushed pretty far back. Hopefully—it’s just a hyperextension and nothing more serious.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Wow. Brutal loss for the Clippers. Possibly lose Paul George, and Kawhi has an iso to win the game with a lot of time on the clock—and manages to not even get a shot up.
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Dort with tremendous footwork putting Kawhi on lockdown on that last shot.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Please no. Embiid will avg 40 on Boston. My poor eyes ain't need to watch that, my guy.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I agree—but I just am not sure why he didn’t attack quickly. Being down one with ample time—I feel like you go quick and even if you miss-you are still in position to take a foul and still be in a position to win or tie again. While Dort did play good defense—just seemed like the entire dynamic of not attacking quick was questionable. I’ll probably get crucified for saying this—but if Lebron did what Kawhi did on that last possession—he would be getting destroyed for it.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
and boston would still probably win, even with a healthy harden.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
They are, but Sixers have the much tougher schedule, as he alludes to. Cavs could easily go 7-2 (if not better) which means Sixers going 4-7 would let Cleveland pass them. Sixers have no gimmes left. Still probably unlikely, but far from impossible.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
ESPN's title chances for teams with at least a 1% chance . . . (They don't make any adjustments for injuries)
BOS - 20.8%
PHI - 16.9%
LAC - 15.9%
MIL - 13.9%
CLE - 7.4%
MEM - 7.0%
DEN - 5.7%
NYK - 4.9%
PHO - 2.2%
GSW - 1.2%
SAC - 1.1%
Jayrod
Footballguy
538 Raptor has:
Bucks - 20%
Celtics - 18%
76ers - 17%
Grizzlies - 12%
Nuggets - 12%
Warriors - 6%
Cavs - 3%
Mavericks - 3%
Suns - 2%
Twolves - 2%
Lakers - 1%
Heat - 1%
Knicks - 1%
538 ELO has:
76ers - 22%
Bucks - 18%
Celtics - 17%
Grizzlies - 10%
Cavaliers - 8%
Nuggets - 7%
Kings - 3%
Knicks - 3%
Suns - 3%
Warriors - 2%
Clippers - 1%
Thunder - 1%
Not sure why it thinks the East is that much stronger...I guess the odds of one of those 3 making the finals is higher than anyone in the West?
Bucks - 20%
Celtics - 18%
76ers - 17%
Grizzlies - 12%
Nuggets - 12%
Warriors - 6%
Cavs - 3%
Mavericks - 3%
Suns - 2%
Twolves - 2%
Lakers - 1%
Heat - 1%
Knicks - 1%
538 ELO has:
76ers - 22%
Bucks - 18%
Celtics - 17%
Grizzlies - 10%
Cavaliers - 8%
Nuggets - 7%
Kings - 3%
Knicks - 3%
Suns - 3%
Warriors - 2%
Clippers - 1%
Thunder - 1%
Not sure why it thinks the East is that much stronger...I guess the odds of one of those 3 making the finals is higher than anyone in the West?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Team scoring differential . . .
CLE +5.6
BOS +5.6
PHI +5.0
MEM + 3.9
MIL +3.9
DEN + 3.7
NYK +2.8
SAC +2.4
PHO +1.8
OKC +1.4
CHI +1.0
NOS +1.0
Four of the Top 5 are in the East. I still don't get the love for LAC (+0.3 scoring differential).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As far as the stretch run goes in the East . . .
MIL: SA, at UTA, at DEN, at DET, at IND, BOS, PHI, at WAS, CHI, MEM, at TOR (Max record of 62-20)
BOS: (2 GB): IND, SA, at WAS, at MIL, UTA, at PHI, TOR, TOR, ATL (Max record of 59-23)
PHI: (3 GB): at CHI, at GSW, at PHO, at DEN, DAL, TOR, at MIL, BOS, MIA, at ATL, at BRK (Max record of 59-23)
The 76ers have the toughest schedule the rest of the way (based on opponent winning%).
MIL: SA, at UTA, at DEN, at DET, at IND, BOS, PHI, at WAS, CHI, MEM, at TOR (Max record of 62-20)
BOS: (2 GB): IND, SA, at WAS, at MIL, UTA, at PHI, TOR, TOR, ATL (Max record of 59-23)
PHI: (3 GB): at CHI, at GSW, at PHO, at DEN, DAL, TOR, at MIL, BOS, MIA, at ATL, at BRK (Max record of 59-23)
The 76ers have the toughest schedule the rest of the way (based on opponent winning%).
Jayrod
Footballguy
I don't think either are catching the Bucks. 2 seed matters as you get a play-in team and home court in the 2 vs 3 matchup. I expect Boston to make a push to land there.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
With 6 road games, including a west coast trip. No favors there for the sixers.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Forgot to mention the back-to-back games:
MIL: at UTA / at DEN, at IND / BOS, and at WAS / CHI
BOS: at MIL / UTA and at PHI / TOR
PHI: at GSW / at PHO and MIA / at ATL
The Celtics catch a break getting the Bucks on the second night of a back-to-back. But BOS also has to play the following night after they face the Bucks and Sixers. Sixers appear to have the most difficult path. I would guess the standings stay the same (MIL-BOS-PHI).
Jayrod
Footballguy
Yeah, every single one of Philly's opponents are at least a play-in team and 5 or 6 games are against legit title contenders.
the moops
Footballguy
That seems highly unlikely, never mind the better part.
BRK, ATL, NYK, and probably even IND are going to be playing hard for seeding. @ BRK for two games is not going to be fun. And @ ORL for two games isn't going to be easy either
Instinctive
Footballguy
Any percentage chance above "<1%" for the Mavericks feels overly optimistic to me. Hate this team. And I'm usually an optimist (may have been the only person who said "WCF" last year.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
KAT back tonight after 4 months out. Literally nothing would surprise me.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I really doubt that IND and ORL will be trying by April, but I guess it's possible. They just destroyed Brooklyn last night (before the garbage time comeback).
Deamon
Footballguy
Cavs only have 8 games left. Let's say they go 6-2.
Philly has 10 games left and is 4 full games up on them. Philly would need to go 3-7. (I'm already counting tonight as a W)
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