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2022 Anarchy League 2 (League of Champions) Thread (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99

Footballguy
2022 League 2 Thread

Draft order

01 - BroncoFreak 2k3
02 - Duckboy
03 - Anarchy99
04 - Genester
05 - CalBear
06 - Old Milwaukee
07 - Ben & Jerry's
08 - Stinkin' Ref
09 - Biabrekable
10 - Norseman
11 - Coordinator
12 - rzrback77
13 - Just Win Baby
14 - Pigskin Fanatic
15 - Go DC Yourself
16 - nittanylion

Turning draft on.
 
Once I saw who was picking before me, I knew JJ wasn’t going to get to me
Sorry about that GB. Your guess was very accurate.

I had to settle for Kupp in the other league as JJ went before me there.

I would have taken Kelce ahead of JJ due to the scoring system but that's about it.
 
The sixth round of the draft is the right time to start doing player research, right?

I was in France for the past month, just happened to get the prompt the day I got back. Merci beaucoup, Anarchie.
 
Well, I was in Grenoble for 10 days for UNICON, the world unicycle championships. I wasn't super-focused on the competitions, mostly just hanging out with old friends, but I did take age group medals in mountain uni uphill, downhill and cyclocross.

[I am not making this up.]

A few days kicking around Paris at the beginning and end, and a week with my wife in the south. Rented a bike and rode Mont Ventoux. (Had done L'Alpe d'Huez a few years back).

Game geeks will appreciate that we played Carcassone, in Carcassone.
 
Well, I was in Grenoble for 10 days for UNICON, the world unicycle championships. I wasn't super-focused on the competitions, mostly just hanging out with old friends, but I did take age group medals in mountain uni uphill, downhill and cyclocross.

[I am not making this up.]

A few days kicking around Paris at the beginning and end, and a week with my wife in the south. Rented a bike and rode Mont Ventoux. (Had done L'Alpe d'Huez a few years back).

Game geeks will appreciate that we played Carcassone, in Carcassone.

:envy:
 
@Anarchy99 @OldMilwaukee

Unless I missed something, OM's 17.6 pick is invalid. He already had 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs, meaning he used his 6th WR as his flex. That means he cannot draft TE Arnold at 17.6.

The pick after his was pre-drafted, so it was made, and we are waiting on 17.8, after which there are 3 more pre-drafts that might immediately execute.
 
Team JWB (Part 1):

1.13 Davante Adams, WR, LVR - Drafted as WR4. Finished last season as WR2 in ppg and WR5 in total points in 17 games. There is obviously some risk of regression here, moving to a new team and QB, but reports out of camp are that he has been dominant, and he has chemistry with Carr. Playoff points are possible. Really just looking for a safe pick here and think I got that.

2.4 Deebo Samuel, WR, SF - Drafted as WR6. Finished last season as WR3 in ppg and WR2 in total points in 19 games. There is some risk here assuming the team moves to Lance as the full-time QB, but Lance has upside beyond Garoppolo, and the 49ers were already #29 in passing attempts. Expecting playoff points.

In this format, I always prefer to focus on TE and WR in the first four rounds. In this case, I didn't think the value was there at TE at this turn, so took the value present at WR. I tentatively planned to draft TE and WR/TE at the next turn.

3.13 Chris Godwin, WR, TB - Drafted as WR17. Finished last season as WR7 in ppg and WR15 in total points despite playing just 14 games, meaning he missed 5 games. He might start slow due to recovering from injury, but all indications are that he will be healthy enough to play in week 1. The team added WRs Gage and Jones but also lost WRs Brown and Johnson and TE Gronkowski (for now); those three combined for 206 targets, so there should be plenty of opportunity for the newcomers without taking away from Godwin. It is worth noting that Godwin was #4 in red zone targets last season among all WRs, and I would estimate that Brown and Gronk were greater red zone threats than Gage and Jones. Expecting playoff points.

4.4 Cardinals, TMQB, ARI - Drafted as TMQB11. Finished last season as TMQB10, despite the fact that Murray missed 3 games. He and Kingsbury's adaptation of his Air Raid offense to the NFL should still be improving. I am expecting an appropriate amount of self-study. :wink: This was a playoff team last season, and I think that is very possible again this season.

In this format, my objective in the first 4 rounds is to try to target safe, productive players, and I think I did that here. I usually focus exclusively on TE and WR in the first 4 rounds, and I had hoped for Ertz in the 3rd and Godwin in the 4th. When Ertz was sniped by @rzrback77, I decided I liked Godwin better than all other options in the 3rd and deviated from my normal strategy to gamble on Murray's upside in the 4th. Having drafted TMQB earlier than usual, I figured this will push me even later on drafting my first RB. I tentatively planned to take the best value at a non-RB position with both picks at the next turn.

5.13 Saints, TMQB, NO - Drafted as TMQB17. Finished last season as TMQB12, despite Winston playing only 7 games. In those 7 games, the Saints TMQB averaged 26.8 ppg; for the full season, that would have ranked #4, barely behind the #3 Chargers. HC Payton is gone, but OC Carmichael remains, and keep in mind that the Saints were without WR Michael Thomas all of last season, and he is back, and they also added #11 draft pick Olave. The Saints still have a strong defense, so playoff points seem possible. There is potential for this pick to return great value.

6.4 Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR - Drafted as TE12. Finished last season as TE11, despite missing 4 of the Rams' 21 games. It is rare for me to wait this long to draft my first TE in this format, and this might have been a slight reach, but I felt it necessary with 24 picks until my next pick. Assuming Stafford is healthy, this should be a playoff team again. If Higbee is healthy, he should return at least solid value here.

I felt it was important to get my first TE before the next TE run. I strongly considered Kmet, but the likely playoff points led me to take Higbee. I did not really strongly consider RBs... I knew it would only get worse, but I didn't feel like it made sense to sacrifice 50+ points to draft one. I tentatively planned for my 2nd TE and the best WR/RB at the next turn.

7.13 Irv Smith, TE, MIN - Drafted as TE17. Hurt in 2021 but combined with Rudolph and Conklin to score 21.8 ppg in 2020. Rudolph and Conklin are gone, and Smith is healthy, so he should get the lion's share of that production. It is also worth noting that the Vikings moved from conservative defensive-minded HC Zimmer to offensive-minded HC O'Connell, which could elevate the offense. Playoff points are possible.

8.4 Drake London, WR, ATL - Drafted as WR44. No playoff points, so this is a regular season only pick, and with a weak QB at that. However, Atlanta will be trailing often and has approximately 420 WR/TE fantasy points vacated from last season, so there is plenty of opportunity for Drake. If he remains healthy, I expect him to deliver solid value on this draft position.

I strongly considered taking RB Sanders at this turn, but felt I was gaining 50+ points by drafting Smith and London and continuing to wait at RB. I also decided to go for more upside with my picks, and did that with the London pick here. I tentatively planned to take my first RB at the next turn, along with the best RB/WR/TE.
 

Team JWB (Part 2):

9.13
Burks, Treylon, WR, TEN - Drafted as WR56. Rookie who should start alongside new addition WR Woods, who is recovering from a torn ACL last November, and new TE Hooper. 10 of 14 Titans WR/TEs last season are gone, vacating approximately 625 fantasy points. Burks should get a healthy share of those points. Playoff points are possible.

10.4 Jakobi Meyers, WR, NE - Drafted as WR58. Finished last season as WR33, despite scoring just 2 TDs on 83 receptions. Mac Jones should be improved, and I don't think Meyers' role is threatened by Parker or Thornton. Playoff points are possible. I see no reason to believe that Meyers cannot match or exceed his performance last season, which is great value here. Plus, I like to have a NC State player on my team whenever possible. :wolf:

I had planned on getting at least 1 RB at this turn, but once again I felt the value was stronger at WR. I usually devalue RBs in this format, and I followed this same approach last season with mixed results -- I drafted Pollard in the 11th as the 47th RB drafted, and he finished as RB29, and I drafted Booker in the 17th as the 64th RB drafted, and he finished as RB38. But I missed on Coleman in the 13th and Justin Jackson in the 14th. Still, this RB strategy was not the reason my team finished 15th last season, the issue was missing on too many of the other picks while waiting on RBs. Anyway, with 8 picks to go, my remaining picks were very simple: 4 RBs, 2 PKs, and 2 DSTs. I planned to go with the best 2 RBs at the next turn.

11.13 Kenneth Gainwell, RB, PHI - Drafted as RB46. Finished last season as RB39 as a rookie. Howard led the team in red zone carries, he is gone... meanwhile, Gainwell had 6 TDs on 19 opportunities (10 carries, 9 targets) in the red zone, so there is potential for more opportunities for him there. Playoff points seem likely. The Eagles just claimed Trey Sermon off waivers, so it is hard to predict how that might affect their RB committee or Gainwell in particular. I hope that doesn't undermine this pick.

12.4 Michael Carter, RB, NYJ - Drafted as RB47. Finished last season as RB30 as a rookie. The team drafted RB Hall, which seems that it will push Carter to RB2, which could limit his potential. I'm sure that is why he slid to me in the 12th round. The Jets upgraded the rest of the offense, which could create more opportunity to be split among the RBs. No playoff points here. Hoping for 100+ points.

I finally got on the board with 2 RBs, the last team to do so. I'm pretty happy with the pair I was able to get at this point in the draft. I anticipated a run on kickers before my next pick. With 4 off the board already, I expected to take at least one at the next turn, maybe both. I was considering finishing the draft with PK-PK, DST-DST, RB-RB in the last 3 turns, depending on who is available.

13.13 Matt Prater, PK, ARI - Drafted as PK13. Finished last season as PK10. Not much to say other than that I wanted two PKs who would not be at risk for getting cut, and drafted the first one here. He plays in a dome, and playoff points are possible.

14.4 Nick Folk, PK, NE - Drafted as PK16. Finished last season as PK3 in ppg and PK4 in total points. I suppose he was devalued a bit because of uncertainty around the Pats offense, but it seems he will return good value on this draft position if he remains healthy. Playoff points are possible.

I have always wanted to avoid waiting until the end for PKs in this format, since 32 are drafted... inevitably, a few teams suffer from drafting a PK who gets cut, and that is hard to overcome in this format. Mission accomplished there. Now I just had to decide between RBs and DSTs at the next turn.

15.13 Chiefs, DST, KC - Drafted as DST17. Finished last season as DST12. Playoff points seem likely, and I was seeking to maximize games at this draft position.

16.4 Titans, DST, TEN - Drafted as DST18. Finished last season as DST6 in ppg and DST8 in total points. Playoff points seem likely, and, again, I was seeking to maximize games at this draft position.

I drafted my two defenses here to avoid getting stuck with bottom defenses and seemingly managed to get two solid values here. That left me needing two RBs at the next turn. I definitely wanted Gus Edwards as one of them but got sniped.

17.13 Darrel Williams, RB, ARI - Drafted as RB63. Finished last season as RB23 in Kansas City. Now he is in Arizona behind Conner. Last season, Edmonds was the #2 behind Conner, and he had 105 fantasy points. I'd be very happy with that here, but there is upside above that if Conner misses games, and he has missed 16 games in 5 seasons in his career to date. Playoff points are possible.

18.4 Zamir White, RB, LVR - Drafted as RB64. Rookie drafted by the new regime. Last season, RBs other than Jacobs had ~140 fantasy points in this format. The Raiders did not pick up Jacobs' 5th year option, and it seems possible they could phase him out this season if Jacobs doesn't play well or if the team falls out of playoff contention. Hoping for 100 points here.

The past 3 years, I drafted #14 (2020, finished #4), #14 (2021, finished #15), and now #13. Hoping for a result more like 2020 than 2021. Will be fun to watch it play out.

:football:
 
I got the notification to join the league the day I got back from four weeks in Europe. I had paid absolutely no attention to anything. So, especially early in the draft, I was going almost entirely on first principles of how to win Anarchy leagues (take production at whatever position is available, probably TE and WR early).

1.05: Mark Andrews, BAL TE

First principles. Andrews was the #2 TE last year, closer to Kelce than to the rest of the field. He scored 408 points, more than any WR but Kupp. This was kind of a close decision with Deebo Samuel, who scored 396 last year; having a RB/WR who's listed at WR is really nice in this format. But there's a lot of noise here in SF about Deebo being a prima donna this offseason, which probably will come to nothing, but I'll stick with the sure thing. The other possibility was Justin Jefferson and I think there are just not enough balls to go around in Minnesota.

2.12: Keenan Allen, SDG WR

Serious consideration was given to Dallas Goedert. Frankly, Goedert is probably a better choice here. But, Go Bears! He's the best WR left unless you count Tyreek Hill, which I don't think you can given his change in situation.

3.05 Mike Gesicki, MIA TE

It's Anarchy, the more TEs the merrier. We're about to see TE value fall off a cliff so I wanted to grab one of the last ones. Value at other positions is catching up, though; Amon-Re St. Brown would have been a nice choice, and even NIck Chubb looks pretty good down here.

4.12 Michael Thomas, NOS WR

He's a terrible QB, but Jameis Winston can put up fantasy points. I won my main league the year that Michael Thomas was operating like he was in cheat mode on Madden; if he's even at 80% he should be pretty solid down here.

5.05 Ezekiel Elliot, DAL RB

Man if we were drafting in 2019 I'd be styling. Even in 2022 it seems like Zeke is a steal in the fifth round. I mean, he had 1300 yards and 12 TDs last year. As long as I have to carry four RBs I might as well get a decent one.

6.12 Tyler Lockett SEA WR

I really debated on this one because there are still some good RBs on the board, Josh Jacobs in particular. But Lockett is pretty dang good. If Wilson were still there he would have been gone two rounds ago, so it's only uncertainty that's kept him on the board. The uncertainty is real but I'll go with the WR. Some possibility Jacobs will still be there at 7.05 though a lot of RBs have gone recently.

7.05 Antonio Gibson WAS RB

The news that Brian Robinson had been shot came out just as I was going to make this pick. It's a little macabre but isn't all of fantasy football? I didn't seriously consider any other options. He's still not great but now he's likely a solid lead back, which is worth something.

8.12 Marvin Jones JAC WR

Go Bears! He'll have two or three big games which makes him good enough in this format.

9.05 Corey Davis, NYJ WR

Davis has never lived up to his draft billing, but it seems like he might have some upside here. In nine games for the Jets last year he put up 492/4; if he gets 900/7 he'd be a good pickup.

10.12 Taysom Hill, TE NOS

He's bit of a wildcard in terms of how they might use him. The most receptions he ever had was 19, back in 2019. But they say he's going to be a regular TE, and if he gets more than 20 receptions, and an occasional rushing TD thrown in, he'd be pretty good as the 29th TE off the board.

I'm now locked on TE and WR; need two RBs and the rest of the hoo hah. No kickers off the board yet, so I can probably wait another couple rounds.

11.05 Rex Burkhead, HOU RB

He's for sure not anything special. But with Marlon Mack released, he should be solid for 600/5 combined. Woo. (Can't expect much more down here). I also thought about Kenneth Gainwell but I still have PTSD from trying to play the Philly backfield last year.

12.12: New England Patriots TMQB

Taking TMQB late, you're just hoping to get someone who finishes in the middle of the pack. That's probably reasonable for New England.

13.05 Younghoe Koo, ATL PK

I had James Robinson in my queue for this pick but he went three picks earlier. It is still silly that we draft TMQB and not TMPK. Koo is at least fun to watch on his on-sides kicks. And he'll definitely have the job all year, which is all that matters with kickers. He's the ninth off the board; I'm expecting there will be a run coming soon and I'll probably grab my second at 14.12 before it gets into people who might not have jobs by October.

14.12 Chris Boswell, PIT PK

Whatever. He'll have a job.

15.05 Houston Texans HOU TMQB

I like Houston a little better than the rest of the TMQBs left. We don't have to figure out who'll be starting, and there are some good receivers there. And, uh, woo, I get the Davis Mills->Rex Burkhead connection.

16.12 Cleveland Browns CLE Def

Whatever. It's a defense. Probably won't be worst in the league.

17.05 Chicago Bears CHI Def

See 16.12.

18.12 Jordan Mason SFO RB

In the 18th round of Anarchy you're looking at sleepers. Deep sleepers. Like, probably comatose. So I'm happy to get someone with a pulse down here. The Niners unexpectedly cut Trey Sermon because of undrafted Jordan Mason's performance in camp. Coach-speak, but Shanahan said "he has the capability to be a first and second-down starting running back." I'll take that over the rest of the guys left, guys like D'Onta Foreman who will never be the first option no matter what happens ahead of them.
 
I always appreciate your write-ups @Just Win Baby. My hot takes are just as reasonable or way off base as anyone else's, so that and 60 cents can get you a postage stamp. I think I like the mid- to late- parts off your draft more than the top.

IMO, Adams is getting over drafted. Carr isn't Rodgers (even if Carr and Adams were college teammates). The other difference is LVR has a top-flight second WR2 in Renfroe and one of the best receiving TEs in Waller. The Packers had neither. Dominating in camp against the mediocre Raiders defense isn't really that impressive IMO. Samuel is also due for regression, and he's more apt to score less than more this season. I don't expect a huge drop-off, but SF going with an unproven QB could lead to a mixed bag of inconsistent results. Who knows what shape Godwin is in. "Able to play" and "full game speed with lateral quickness and can stop and go on a dime" are two entirely different things. IMO, the OL in Tampa could be an issue, and they have a lot of mouths to feed to keep happy.

Meyers was probably a good pick, but I would not expect many TD from him. Henry and Parker are better red zone threats, and ME use RBs a ton in the red zone. There is also a chance they start phasing Meyers out some as the season progresses if they don't appear to be in contention, as he is a FA next year and they may not make a concerted effort to resign him. BB does things like that. I expect the Pats to spread the ball out more adding Parker, Thornton, and Montgomery . . . with more targets to Smith and the other RBs. The good news for you is I see NE passing more than they have been projected as they take the training wheels off Jones (and have no choice if they are behind).
 
IMO, Adams is getting over drafted. Carr isn't Rodgers (even if Carr and Adams were college teammates). The other difference is LVR has a top-flight second WR2 in Renfroe and one of the best receiving TEs in Waller. The Packers had neither. Dominating in camp against the mediocre Raiders defense isn't really that impressive IMO. Samuel is also due for regression, and he's more apt to score less than more this season. I don't expect a huge drop-off, but SF going with an unproven QB could lead to a mixed bag of inconsistent results. Who knows what shape Godwin is in. "Able to play" and "full game speed with lateral quickness and can stop and go on a dime" are two entirely different things. IMO, the OL in Tampa could be an issue, and they have a lot of mouths to feed to keep happy.

All fair points. Maybe they won't reach their ceiling values from the past, but they should both have high floors if they remain healthy.

That said, without looking at past drafts, I suspect I don't have a great track record with my early picks delivering good value... I have probably been wrong more often than right on these picks. Hoping this year can be one of the occasional exceptions to that trend.

Meyers was probably a good pick, but I would not expect many TD from him. Henry and Parker are better red zone threats, and ME use RBs a ton in the red zone. There is also a chance they start phasing Meyers out some as the season progresses if they don't appear to be in contention, as he is a FA next year and they may not make a concerted effort to resign him. BB does things like that. I expect the Pats to spread the ball out more adding Parker, Thornton, and Montgomery . . . with more targets to Smith and the other RBs. The good news for you is I see NE passing more than they have been projected as they take the training wheels off Jones (and have no choice if they are behind).

Meyers was WR33 last year in this format while scoring 2 TDs, so he doesn't have to score many TDs to deliver great value for his draft position. Obviously a lot can happen that take away from his value, but he was the 58th WR drafted, so that kind of comes with the territory.

Besides, I needed a Wolfpacker. :wolf:
 
IMO, Adams is getting over drafted. Carr isn't Rodgers (even if Carr and Adams were college teammates). The other difference is LVR has a top-flight second WR2 in Renfroe and one of the best receiving TEs in Waller. The Packers had neither. Dominating in camp against the mediocre Raiders defense isn't really that impressive IMO. Samuel is also due for regression, and he's more apt to score less than more this season. I don't expect a huge drop-off, but SF going with an unproven QB could lead to a mixed bag of inconsistent results. Who knows what shape Godwin is in. "Able to play" and "full game speed with lateral quickness and can stop and go on a dime" are two entirely different things. IMO, the OL in Tampa could be an issue, and they have a lot of mouths to feed to keep happy.

All fair points. Maybe they won't reach their ceiling values from the past, but they should both have high floors if they remain healthy.

That said, without looking at past drafts, I suspect I don't have a great track record with my early picks delivering good value... I have probably been wrong more often than right on these picks. Hoping this year can be one of the occasional exceptions to that trend.

Meyers was probably a good pick, but I would not expect many TD from him. Henry and Parker are better red zone threats, and ME use RBs a ton in the red zone. There is also a chance they start phasing Meyers out some as the season progresses if they don't appear to be in contention, as he is a FA next year and they may not make a concerted effort to resign him. BB does things like that. I expect the Pats to spread the ball out more adding Parker, Thornton, and Montgomery . . . with more targets to Smith and the other RBs. The good news for you is I see NE passing more than they have been projected as they take the training wheels off Jones (and have no choice if they are behind).

Meyers was WR33 last year in this format while scoring 2 TDs, so he doesn't have to score many TDs to deliver great value for his draft position. Obviously a lot can happen that take away from his value, but he was the 58th WR drafted, so that kind of comes with the territory.

Besides, I needed a Wolfpacker. :wolf:
It's all good. I don't keep up with the ins and outs of the league anywhere as much as I used to. Back in the day, there might be 1 or 2 players that went in the last round that I wasn't that familiar with. Nowadays, those guys start creeping into the middle rounds.

Clearly the biggest key to winning these leagues is getting healthy / full seasons out of early picks and then seeing injuries to players NOT on your team that open up playing time for your later round picks. I generally draft well but see a lot of injuries. Minor injuries happen, but when you draft CMC, Saquon, and Golladay early like I did last year, it's hard to stay competitive. Somehow, I managed to finish 2nd. But that's because I ended up with Taylor, Deebo, Kmet, Ertz, Meyers, and AJ Green late. If McCaffrey, Barkley, and Golladay could have put up 100 more points between them, I would have won. C'est la vie.
 
rzrback77 Anarchy League Draft

when this began, I was in the middle of the IBL Draft and did not look at things closely enough in the early going. Nevertheless, it is what it is and hopefully this squad can avoid injuries and stay in the hunt for the long haul. I did not always have the Draft Dominator up to date, but I did finalize it today and with the standard settings, the top teams are Genester, BroncoFreak2K3, Anarchy, Just Win Baby and rzrback77.

1.12 Tampa Bay Bucs QB - What was I thinking? I likely should have gone with WRs Diggs or Adams, but I pulled a quick trigger on Brady. Here's hoping that he has one more dominant season in him because at Team QB4, he has to provide high scores or I have put myself behind the curve early.

2.5 Dalvin Cook - Again, what did I do? When you focus on typical redraft ppr leagues, it seems like RB value is dropping, but this is Anarchy and although I do like the Vikings to make the playoffs, really should have drafted Waller, Schultz, Lamb or Evans and let others grab the top flight RBs. Could have had a Diggs/Waller start, which would have likely been considerably better.

3.12 Zach Ertz was the pick and as the 11th TE on Arizona with a chance at the playoffs and ranked TE8, I will take it.

4.5 Amon-Ra St. Brown is I think the real deal. I am big on the Lions offense improving this year and like several, with St. Brown and Hockenson leading the charge. Took him as WR19, about at his ADP. Considered Allen Robinson.

5.12 A. J. Dillon, well again I forgot the league scoring. Dillon as RB19 while ranked RB17 and on the Packers who should make the playoffs sounds good, but I think that the pick should have been Renfrow, Hunter Henry (WPS!) or Aiyuk.

6.5 Hunter Henry was still there and as a Razorback fan, he is probably considered more highly by me than the general consensus. Taken at TE13, very near ADP.

7.12 Elijah Moore offers very little hope of playoffs, but I do see him producing value as the top Jet's receiver, unless Zach Wilson show no improvement. Since he was the next to last team QB drafted, perhaps this was another reach.

8.5 Russell Gage as a stack with Brady seems like a reasonable selection here, with a decent playoff chance to boot.\

9.12 Michael Gallup, if healthy and playing sooner rather than later seems like a nice find at this point.

10.5 Mecole Hardman could be solid. He does have speed and he has a much better opportunity for targets, including some deep ones and I do like his QB and team's chances at the playoffs.

11.12 Considered going DST here with only four off the board, but took Mattison, who will only help me significantly if I lose Mr. Cook. Meh

12.5 Jared Goff is the pick here as I said earlier, I see positive things for the Lions on offense this season.

13.12 Really happy to get Denver as my first DST.

14.5 Rachaad White completes my RBs, much earlier than anticipated. He could really be a find, if Fournette is injured and another Buc who I hope makes the playoffs.

15.12 Van Jefferson is the pick as my flex player. Was planning to draft a PK, but the addition of Jefferson on the Rams could not be passed up.

16.5 Brett Maher is not on the roster yet, but surely he will be soon. I hope

17.12 Kaimi Fairbairn is a decent kicker and perhaps Houston can move the ball enough to get close an attempt a lot of FGs.

18.5 Detroit defense is terrible, but like their chances at the playoffs more than the other remaining DSTs.

DD ranks me 5th overall and I am not ranked highly at any position, QB7, RB8, WR8, TE8, PK14 and DST12. Not feeling this squad challenge, but you never know.
 
03 - Bills (1), 286 - Jets (31)
I am not usually a fan of taking a QB early, as it's easy to have to start chasing points at other positions. But the Bills are favorites to advance to the SB and scored twice as many points as 9 TMQB last season. The Jets finished 24th last year and with some better health, adding Garrett Wilson, and with Zach Wilson having a year under his belt could be better.

62 - Aaron Jones (14), 67 - James Conner (15), 99 - Rhamondre Stevenson (27), 190 - Raheem Mostert (50)
Jones missed a couple of games, got a nagging injury, ceded some work to Dillon, and still finished 10th last year. Conner scored an unrepeatable amount of TD last year but saw Chase Edmonds move on. Conner could see a bigger workload to make up for fewer TD. Stevenson will probably outscore Harris in NE (and Harris has had several injuries in his time with the Pats). The Dolphins backfield looks like a RBBC and Mostert might be able to eke out 120 points if he can stay on the field. All four guys have at least some chance of an extra game or two.

35 - Mike Williams (13), 126 - Chase Claypool (50), 158 - Kadarius Toney (64), 163 - Garrett Wilson (65), 195 - Robbie Anderson (72)

I have seen some people suggest that Williams will outpace Keenan Allen starting this year. The Chargers look like a playoff team. Williams ended at 14 last year. Claypool ranked 17 and 41 the past two seasons. Toney could end up as the WR1 on the Giants (who looked better offensively in the preseason). Wilson should end up as the WR2 with the Jets. Anderson looks like a bounce back candidate after finishing as WR24 two seasons ago. When you take other spots earlier, you end up with a weaker WR corps (and from teams with limited playoff chances). However, I think most years there are WR in the 40-70 range with decent chances of ranking way higher than their draft spot.

30 - Dallas Goedert (7), 94 - Noah Fant (15), 131 - Evan Engram (23)
Goedert should be in line with what he produced last year. I liked Fant better before the news hit that he was sharing time and not running many routes. Dave Pederson turned Kelce and Ertz into fantasy superstars. Maybe Engram can stay healthy and have fewer drops to become this year's sleeper TE.

222 - Jake Elliott (19), 227 - Robbie Gould (20)
With the draft starting much later this year, it become advantageous to wait on PK as we already knew who won camp battles and who ended up with jobs. I took established kickers anyway, but in hindsight probably should have waited some more (although both kickers might get a few extra playoff points).

254 - Cardinals (21), 259 - Commanders (22)
I'm not convinced defensive scoring carries over from year to year. Middle tier defenses can fluctuate each year. Perceived bottom of the barrel defenses generally aren't very good.

Over all, I think I have a competitive squad if they stay healthy. Might be lacking enough playoff players though.
 
Until this year, I always used the classic Draft Dominator to track the draft, but my company has removed admin rights for employee laptops, so I had no ability to install this year. So I used the browser version for the first time. Using default projections for all of this.

DD predicts mean points per week as follows:
  1. Anarchy99 - 216.28
  2. BroncoFreak2K3 - 211.21
  3. Coordinator - 210.72
  4. Genester - 210.40
  5. Just Win Baby - 207.20
  6. Biabreakable - 206.37
  7. Go DC Yourself - 203.76
  8. rzrback77 - 200.85
  9. Norseman - 198.17
  10. Duckboy - 197.23
  11. Ben & Jerry's - 196.18
  12. Stinkin' Ref - 196.12
  13. CalBear - 194.46
  14. Pigskin Fanatic - 192.21
  15. Nittanylion - 191.49
  16. OldMilwaukee - 179.85
DD projects 15 undrafted players for 100+ points:
  1. WR Z Jones
  2. WR Shepard
  3. WR Samuel
  4. WR Pringle
  5. WR Bell
  6. WR Peoples-Jones
  7. WR Green
  8. TE Bryant
  9. TE Parham
  10. TE Dulcich
  11. TE Arnold
  12. WR Wilson
  13. WR Duvernay
  14. TE Brown
  15. WR Agholor
DD projects for regular season only, so 50 points is equal to 2.94 ppg assuming 17 games played. DD projects these drafted players at less than 2.94 ppg:
  1. RB Darrel Williams - 2.90 - Just Win Baby
  2. WR Shenault - 2.89 - Nittanylion
  3. WR Shakir - 2.29 - Duckboy
  4. RB Spiller - 2.29 - Pigskin Fanatic
  5. WR Paschal - 2.19 - OldMilwaukee
  6. RB Hubbard - 2.02 - Coordinator
  7. RB Mason - 0.43 - CalBear
Standard caveats:
  • With classic DD, I would get to the end of the draft and then change settings and draft all QBs to achieve the equivalent of TeamQB for each team, since DD has never supported TMQB as a position. It seems that in the browser version, I am unable to change settings and continue the draft. So the mean points per week above includes only the starting QB for each TeamQB. This obviously skews the results, shorting teams projected to have multiple QBs playing over the course of the season. So this data is even less useful than normal. 😬
  • These are default FBG projections in the DD browser version, no modifications. I'm sure many of you and other sources of projections have different views on many players.
  • Obviously, these projections do not account for playoff points.
  • Obviously, these projections do not account for injuries still to come, which will make a huge impact.
 
Had 3 of my WR traded to different teams (Anderson, Claypool, and Toney). Generally speaking, that can't be good. It usually takes a long time to ramp up to a new offense. I guess any chance of Toney scoring any points would be an upgrade vs. staying with the Giants.
 

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