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2024 Buffalo Bills (3 Viewers)

This feels like a big game. One of those divisional December games that you absolutely have to win if you are a true contender.
 
Buffalo Bills now 6-3 this year in 1 score games. Can’t wait for someone to still bring it up as an issue for them.

With one more win, or one Miami loss, Buffalo clinches the division. So hopefully that will happen with a Buffalo win against the Bears this weekend.

The defense is still a bit of a concern, especially when it comes to tackling. It has been awful all year, but especially the case recently. That HAS to be cleaned up because that will turn into losses against teams like CIN and KC.

Elam needs to play every snap against the Bears. Dane Jackson is not good enough and we know what he is. Elam, to my eyes, looked really good against Miami. Gotta give him a shot and see if he can be the #2, or part of a rotation with Benford for the playoffs.

The offense still has drops issues and either design or confusion issues with receivers in the same spot multiple times. Even worse is the O-line is a disaster. In Joe Buscaglia’s weekly cumulative player ratings, 4 of the 5 lowest rated players are Buffalo’s O-line. That’s a problem. Hopefully Bates is back soon. I’m not holding my breath that Morse will play again. I fully expect Boettger to take over one of the guard spots. Their incompetence there puts way more on an already full Josh Allen plate.
 
NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatxh

Dec 17
Bills Insider Chris Brown said he “for sure” sees the Bills selecting a WR within the first two rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Some potential targets that may be available for the Bills could include Josh Downs, Zay Flowers, and Jalin Hyatt 1f440.png
 
I know he’s not a Bill anymore so this is technically off topic, but I can’t believe I’m about to start Zay Jones in my fantasy semi-finals when he’s up against the very difficult Jets defense. What a weird turn of events.
 
I've been a long-time advocate for the view that you just have to accept the bad with the good when it comes to Josh Allen, and of course I still feel that way. But I do wish we could move his Situational Awareness slider slightly to the more conservative side. Against a team like the Bears, there's just no reason to put the ball in harm's way ever. Just take what's there and count on your team's overall talent advantage to assert itself.

I have no problem with Josh taking chances against teams like the Chiefs and Bengals, or even the Dolphins (like that weird TD-as-time-expires just before halftime last week). We need points against those teams, and Allen is our best source of points. But let's dial it back a little against the bad teams. Variance is not our friend when we're 10 point favorites.
 
What’s crazy is that the Bills still hold the #1 seed in the AFC, may possibly be the best team in the NFL, and I think we all probably agree that they still don’t feel like they’ve played the type of great game they are capable of. Let’s hope they’re saving all those for the playoffs.
 
According to 538, we have a 29% chance to win the SB if we beat the Bengals next week. We have a 12% chance if we lose. That's almost a 150% change hinging on just one game. That's wild considering that this game has no implications at all in terms of who wins what division -- it's entirely seeding.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
According to 538, we have a 29% chance to win the SB if we beat the Bengals next week. We have a 12% chance if we lose. That's almost a 150% change hinging on just one game. That's wild considering that this game has no implications at all in terms of who wins what division -- it's entirely seeding.
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I noticed that as well. If the Ravens wins next week, the Bengals beat the Bills, and the Ravens beat the Bengals in week 18, the Bengals do not win their division.

But if the Bengals beat the Bills and Ravens, and then KC wins out and Buffalo wins week 18, the Bills are the 3 seed, the Bengals are the 2 and the Chiefs are the 1.

Long story short: the Bills are likely to have to win at Cincinnati sometime in the next month, so they might as well do it next week.
 
It will be hard to stomach if CIncy beats the Bills and KC skates into the 1 seed on the strength of their 6-0 against AFC West.

Both the #2 and #3 seed will have beaten them but been sunk by their harder divisions 🤢

Even worse, KC then only needs to beat one of them instead of both.

Such a huge game Monday to help the Bills be the team in that position.
 
The Duff Man said:
It will be hard to stomach if CIncy beats the Bills and KC skates into the 1 seed on the strength of their 6-0 against AFC West.

Both the #2 and #3 seed will have beaten them but been sunk by their harder divisions 🤢

Even worse, KC then only needs to beat one of them instead of both.

Such a huge game Monday to help the Bills be the team in that position.
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playoffs start in earnest this week.
2 wins against Cinci and NE
the 2 more wins at home in playoffs to get to SB

need to focus
no wasted possessions
 
The Duff Man said:
It will be hard to stomach if CIncy beats the Bills and KC skates into the 1 seed on the strength of their 6-0 against AFC West.

Both the #2 and #3 seed will have beaten them but been sunk by their harder divisions 🤢
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Can you imagine if we had to live in a world where one team had a bunch of easy wins handed to them year-in and year-out just because the other teams in their division were incompetent clown-shows? I'll bet that would be really frustrating. Good thing that's never happened in the AFC before.
 
Over the last month we have heard a lot about how often the Bills are turning it over. They have a whopping three more giveaways than the Chiefs over 15 games.

7 more than Cincy so that is a sizeable difference.

But in differential, Cincy is +3, Buffalo is even and KC is -5.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
According to 538, we have a 29% chance to win the SB if we beat the Bengals next week. We have a 12% chance if we lose. That's almost a 150% change hinging on just one game. That's wild considering that this game has no implications at all in terms of who wins what division -- it's entirely seeding.
Click to expand...
A playoff bye is absolutely massive. Frankly, I hate the new system. Giving a single team a bye is such a huge advantage over everyone else IMO. Not only is it one less chance to lose and be eliminated, the extra week of healing up is enormous as well.
 
GroveDiesel said:
IvanKaramazov said:
According to 538, we have a 29% chance to win the SB if we beat the Bengals next week. We have a 12% chance if we lose. That's almost a 150% change hinging on just one game. That's wild considering that this game has no implications at all in terms of who wins what division -- it's entirely seeding.
Click to expand...
A playoff bye is absolutely massive. Frankly, I hate the new system. Giving a single team a bye is such a huge advantage over everyone else IMO. Not only is it one less chance to lose and be eliminated, the extra week of healing up is enormous as well.
Click to expand...
Same. On one level, I kind of like having a 7th playoff team -- having only two WC teams drawn across four divisions is a bit on the restrictive side, and the extra playoff berth tends to lead to more meaningful games late in the year. On the other hand, that last WC team is seldom all that compelling. Look at this year. The AFC side of the tournament is stacked, and nobody would be shocked if the Chargers or Dolphins (say) made a deep run. The NFC side contains a bunch of teams that haven't earned the right to watch the playoffs on television, and the diluted field over there is going to give us some pretty laughable matchups in the WC and divisional rounds. So there are at least pros and cons there.

But it's kind of silly that one team and one team only gets a first round bye and guaranteed HFA for as long as they keep winning. That's way too big a differentiator between teams that aren't actually that differentiated. The older two-bye system was better, since there was more gradation to the seeding. Plus, think of how ridiculous it was when Tennessee stumbled into the #1 seed purely by virtue of playing in a little-boy division while the Bills and Chiefs had to play wild card games. That was dumb.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
GroveDiesel said:
IvanKaramazov said:
According to 538, we have a 29% chance to win the SB if we beat the Bengals next week. We have a 12% chance if we lose. That's almost a 150% change hinging on just one game. That's wild considering that this game has no implications at all in terms of who wins what division -- it's entirely seeding.
Click to expand...
A playoff bye is absolutely massive. Frankly, I hate the new system. Giving a single team a bye is such a huge advantage over everyone else IMO. Not only is it one less chance to lose and be eliminated, the extra week of healing up is enormous as well.
Click to expand...
Same. On one level, I kind of like having a 7th playoff team -- having only two WC teams drawn across four divisions is a bit on the restrictive side, and the extra playoff berth tends to lead to more meaningful games late in the year. On the other hand, that last WC team is seldom all that compelling. Look at this year. The AFC side of the tournament is stacked, and nobody would be shocked if the Chargers or Dolphins (say) made a deep run. The NFC side contains a bunch of teams that haven't earned the right to watch the playoffs on television, and the diluted field over there is going to give us some pretty laughable matchups in the WC and divisional rounds. So there are at least pros and cons there.

But it's kind of silly that one team and one team only gets a first round bye and guaranteed HFA for as long as they keep winning. That's way too big a differentiator between teams that aren't actually that differentiated. The older two-bye system was better, since there was more gradation to the seeding. Plus, think of how ridiculous it was when Tennessee stumbled into the #1 seed purely by virtue of playing in a little-boy division while the Bills and Chiefs had to play wild card games. That was dumb.
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Yup. It’s especially frustrating because often the difference between the #1 seed and the #2 seed (or even #3 seed) is more strength of schedule than actually being a better team. As you point out, last year’s Titans are a great example.

This year, the Bills have a decent division and played the fairly good NFC North (thankfully they didn’t get the NFCE). They also have the AFCN which has two very good teams and two terrible teams.

KC does have a pretty good Chargers team in their division (though I’d argue that the Dolphins with a non-concussed Tua are on par with the Chargers), but the rest of the division is awful and they got the NFC West which is bad outside of SF. They also played the AFCS which is a joke.

The Bengals have a very good (with Lamar) Ravens team and 2 terrible teams in their division. But they got a really awful NFCS. Though they did also get stuck against the AFCE which may actually be the best top to bottom AFC division (though everyone but the Bills seems to be fading fast).

So basically the Bills and Bengals had fairly decent schedules with the Bengals having the ultra soft NFCS thrown in there, while KC just got a total cream puff of a schedule. If one of BUF/CIN gets the 1 seed it will feel like they’ve really earned it. If KC gets it, it will definitely feel like their weak SOS was the difference maker for them.

But I guess one of BUF/KC/CIN would have been screwed if there was 2 byes as well. Those 3 are clearly the cream of the AFC. Which as Judge Smails said, shout-out to the Bengals for legit being a good team. I thought last year’s trip to the Super Bowl was a bit fluky, but they are a very good team. That offense is scary good.
 
GroveDiesel said:
IvanKaramazov said:
According to 538, we have a 29% chance to win the SB if we beat the Bengals next week. We have a 12% chance if we lose. That's almost a 150% change hinging on just one game. That's wild considering that this game has no implications at all in terms of who wins what division -- it's entirely seeding.
Click to expand...
A playoff bye is absolutely massive. Frankly, I hate the new system. Giving a single team a bye is such a huge advantage over everyone else IMO. Not only is it one less chance to lose and be eliminated, the extra week of healing up is enormous as well.
Click to expand...
It would be interesting if they let the #1 seed decide. You can take the bye or the #1 seed. Whatever you don’t pick, the #2 team gets.

Take the bye and you might end up on the road for the AFC championship game. Take home field and you need to win an extra game.

Split the benefits between two teams instead of giving them all to #1
 
What happened to focussing on YAC this year? The Bills offense is devoid of any crossing patterns, well executed screens and other routes that lend themselves to YAC.

I saw that Mahomes had 1000 more YAC than Allen. So I checked YAC per completion.

Mahomes is second with 6.6 YAC per completion. Allen? 32nd in the league with 4.5. The Chiefs getting more than 2 yards more YAC ON EVERY COMPLETION!!

That is insane. Imagine how much easier it would be to move the sticks. Mahomes is an outlier because his is so high (actually second to Garroppolo) but Allen is still a full yard less than the other top QBs.
 
The Duff Man said:
What happened to focussing on YAC this year? The Bills offense is devoid of any crossing patterns, well executed screens and other routes that lend themselves to YAC.

I saw that Mahomes had 1000 more YAC than Allen. So I checked YAC per completion.

Mahomes is second with 6.6 YAC per completion. Allen? 32nd in the league with 4.5. The Chiefs getting more than 2 yards more YAC ON EVERY COMPLETION!!

That is insane. Imagine how much easier it would be to move the sticks. Mahomes is an outlier because his is so high (actually second to Garroppolo) but Allen is still a full yard less than the other top QBs.
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I don't want to be super-critical of Dorsey because a) he's in his first year, b) I'm not qualified to evaluate his performance, and c) Bills fans complaining about their OC has become sort of a meme since the Marchibroda era. But the lack of YAC, along with our recent inability to get the football to Diggs, seems to lie squarely at his feet. We're not even doing all that much with our pass-catching RBs that Dorsey wanted so badly.
 
IMO, the Bengals are going to mostly play this like they played the Chiefs in the 2nd half: lots of pass defenders and just a 2-3 man rush. They know Josh wants the big plays and that he badly wants to get Diggs involved, so I expect bracket coverage on Diggs, an extra man deep, and extra defenders in the middle of the field to clog things up there.

If I’m Dorsey, I come out with a heavy emphasis on runs with Singletary and Allen, and short passes up the seams to Knox and Cook. Make them pay for having smaller bodies out there by smashing them in the mouth and by getting Cook into space one on one with linebackers and keep doing it until Cinci is forced to adjust.
 
GroveDiesel said:
IMO, the Bengals are going to mostly play this like they played the Chiefs in the 2nd half: lots of pass defenders and just a 2-3 man rush. They know Josh wants the big plays and that he badly wants to get Diggs involved, so I expect bracket coverage on Diggs, an extra man deep, and extra defenders in the middle of the field to clog things up there.

If I’m Dorsey, I come out with a heavy emphasis on runs with Singletary and Allen, and short passes up the seams to Knox and Cook. Make them pay for having smaller bodies out there by smashing them in the mouth and by getting Cook into space one on one with linebackers and keep doing it until Cinci is forced to adjust.
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2-3 man rush? Yes, please.

If the Bills can't come up with easy runs, or find quick hits against that (pre-snap), Josh should be able to easily gash them for nice runs without taking a lot of big hits.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
I don't want to be super-critical of Dorsey because a) he's in his first year, b) I'm not qualified to evaluate his performance, and c) Bills fans complaining about their OC has become sort of a meme since the Marchibroda era. But the lack of YAC, along with our recent inability to get the football to Diggs, seems to lie squarely at his feet. We're not even doing all that much with our pass-catching RBs that Dorsey wanted so badly.
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It's surprising that RB involvement hasn't been greater than in 2021, given that Cook is so much better than Moss. I wonder how much free lancing Allen does - the pass at the end of the first half to Cook in the Miami game, with no time on the clock, comes to mind.
 
I'm going to put this here so as to separate it from the Damar Hamlin discussion, but after seeing Tre's reaction last night and given his mental health concerns after the ACL injury, it wouldn't surprise me if he retires.
 
Sure feels like this season was snakebitten. We have an unprecedented (as far as I know) postponement of a huge game for injury reasons, a home game moved to Detroit at the 11th hour, a bizarre loss to the Vikings, an early-season game where our players are collapsing from heat exhaustion while the other teams gets to ignore concussion protocol without consequence, the nonstop parade of injuries, the huge blizzard last week, the Araiza thing, the Tops shooting, etc.

There's always something every year, but this year has been nuts. And it's not even over. This team still has about as good a shot at the super bowl as anybody.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
Sure feels like this season was snakebitten. We have an unprecedented (as far as I know) postponement of a huge game for injury reasons, a home game moved to Detroit at the 11th hour, a bizarre loss to the Vikings, an early-season game where our players are collapsing from heat exhaustion while the other teams gets to ignore concussion protocol without consequence, the nonstop parade of injuries, the huge blizzard last week, the Araiza thing, the Tops shooting, etc.

There's always something every year, but this year has been nuts. And it's not even over. This team still has about as good a shot at the super bowl as anybody.
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Also Dane Jackson was almost paralyzed, and Dawson Knox's brother died.
 
Steve Tasker said:
IvanKaramazov said:
Sure feels like this season was snakebitten. We have an unprecedented (as far as I know) postponement of a huge game for injury reasons, a home game moved to Detroit at the 11th hour, a bizarre loss to the Vikings, an early-season game where our players are collapsing from heat exhaustion while the other teams gets to ignore concussion protocol without consequence, the nonstop parade of injuries, the huge blizzard last week, the Araiza thing, the Tops shooting, etc.

There's always something every year, but this year has been nuts. And it's not even over. This team still has about as good a shot at the super bowl as anybody.
Click to expand...
Also Dane Jackson was almost paralyzed, and Dawson Knox's brother died.
Click to expand...
Yeah I lost track of those, which says a lot I guess.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
Steve Tasker said:
IvanKaramazov said:
Sure feels like this season was snakebitten. We have an unprecedented (as far as I know) postponement of a huge game for injury reasons, a home game moved to Detroit at the 11th hour, a bizarre loss to the Vikings, an early-season game where our players are collapsing from heat exhaustion while the other teams gets to ignore concussion protocol without consequence, the nonstop parade of injuries, the huge blizzard last week, the Araiza thing, the Tops shooting, etc.

There's always something every year, but this year has been nuts. And it's not even over. This team still has about as good a shot at the super bowl as anybody.
Click to expand...
Also Dane Jackson was almost paralyzed, and Dawson Knox's brother died.
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Yeah I lost track of those, which says a lot I guess.
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And Hyde with a potential career ender.
 
And something medical with the owner. They have been completely silent all year and their silence now is striking to me and speaks to how serious whatever they faced (or are facing) is.
 
The Duff Man said:
And something medical with the owner. They have been completely silent all year and their silence now is striking to me and speaks to how serious whatever they faced (or are facing) is.
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Just a guess, but a stroke seems fairly likely.

Funny how the year is so messed up that losing future HOFer Von Miller to a torn ACL is just now getting mentioned.

There’s obviously no good or “fair” way to handle things at this point, but I have to chuckle cynically when people keep acting like they should have continued playing or whatever other option that primarily hurts the Bills because anything else would be “unfair” to other teams. Like watching a teammate literally die on the field and be revived is something that they are somehow responsible for and not patently unfair that it happened.

It really does feel like this franchise has some crazy curse on it.
 
GroveDiesel said:
The Duff Man said:
And something medical with the owner. They have been completely silent all year and their silence now is striking to me and speaks to how serious whatever they faced (or are facing) is.
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Just a guess, but a stroke seems fairly likely.
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I have no "inside info", but the two most common rumors that circulate here seem to be either a very serious stroke or a failed suicide attempt. I hope for her sake and the family's sake neither of those are true, but they're the leading unofficial rumors that seem to get floated.
 
Steve Tasker said:
GroveDiesel said:
The Duff Man said:
And something medical with the owner. They have been completely silent all year and their silence now is striking to me and speaks to how serious whatever they faced (or are facing) is.
Click to expand...
Just a guess, but a stroke seems fairly likely.
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I have no "inside info", but the two most common rumors that circulate here seem to be either a very serious stroke or a failed suicide attempt. I hope for her sake and the family's sake neither of those are true, but they're the leading unofficial rumors that seem to get floated.
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Huh. I had always just assumed it was a stroke and wondered why they didn't just say that, but I guess a suicide attempt makes more sense. On the other hand, I don't think I've ever heard of a middle-aged woman attempting suicide before. I'm sure it happens, but that has to be a population with extremely low rates of self-harm.

Hope she's okay regardless.
 
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