(continued)
Step 4: QBs
Had Cousins/Carr penciled in for a long time as a good value combo that should provide decent weekly scores with a high floor between them to handle variance. But wait, I don't want just want high floor, I want high ceiling! Let me look at the stud QBs instead. Hmm... I don't want my stud QB on by same weeks as Kelce or Barkely (8/9), and would prefer an earlier bye. Josh Allen week 7 looks like a great choice. Lamar or Burrow, maybe, but Burrow lacks the rushing upside, and Lamar the passing upside. Week 10 bye week could be good though, I don't have other guys on bye that week, and it's still before the cut line jumps to 40%. Hmm... well, let's consider one of those guys the backup plan if we can't make it work with the #1 QB instead.
QB - Josh Allen - BUF/7 - $25
Let's also pencil in Davis Mills as the backup in this case. I really expect to only need him one week (week 7), and he's the least expensive option who seems to have good job security. The week 6 bye helps, and he has a decent matchup that week vs. the Raiders (and is coming off his own bye, so lots of time for him and the team to rest up, heal if needed, and prepare).
QB - Davis Mills - HOU/6 - $7
Step 5: Revisiting RB/WRs
OK, need depth here, so far we've got Barkely and Pierce, so weeks 6 and 9 are out... and 7 and 8 already have lots of players and $$ on bye... so we're looking at weeks 10-14. From my earlier RB comments, I'm looking at Stevenson (week 10) or Edmonds (week 11) to solidify my 2nd RB spot (sharing it with Pierce)... and I like Edmonds chances better of owning a dominant share of touches.
I can also add Brian Robinson, who thankfully seems to have really dodged a bullet (too soon?) and is going to be able to get back on the field at some point this season, and may take over the RB1 role in WAS for the second half of the season.... and that still leaves me enough $$ for one of my mid-tier WRs as well. It seems like I'm under-spending on week 6 right now... even though I've already got St. Brown, I think I can add Renfrow here. I like Sutton a lot and he was on almost every single iteration I had up until this final construction, but I have a lot of guys on week 9 bye already (notably Barkley and Kittle)... so I'm leaving him off for now, but we'll see if we can fit him back in before we're done.
RB - Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Brian Robinson - WAS/14 - $7
WR - Hunter Renfrow - LV/6 - $15
That puts me at exactly $231, with my $10 K budget and $9 Team D budget still to spend. But I do like Jeff Wilson as my favorite $3 cheapie... even if it costs me my 3rd Team Defense. I've hopefully got enough depth at RB now that it's OK if he has the same bye as Barkley... will just need 2-out-of-3 from Edmonds/Pierce/Robinson to put up points in week 9.
3rd Team D (TBD)
RB - Jeff Wilson - SF/9 - $3
Step 6: Roster Reviews/Tweaks
OK. We have a roster! Before we slot in our specific PK and TDs, let's take a look:
- QBs - Allen/Mills - Solid
- RBs - Barkley/Edmonds/Pierce/Robinson/Wilson - Good, but I have a nagging feeling this is going to bite me in the arse at some point this season...
- WRs - Robinson/St Brown/Renfrow + 5 cheapies... looks very good.
- TEs - Kelce/Kittle/Goedert - Strongest position... beyond what I need. Could be filling TE/Flex/Flex with these 3.
Hmm... OK, what if we swapped some of that TE strength to upgrade Edmonds?
$14 Edmonds + $15 Goedert = $29 = ...Dalvin Cook! And while it puts me a bit heavy on week 7 byes, it's not entirely unmanageable.
RB - Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/7 - $15
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
I still was heavy on week 7 byes now with Allen/Cook/Robinson, and had read a mix of both glowing reports on McKenzie, but also some warning flags that he still may end up buried behind Crowder (like Gabe Davis was last year behind Sanders).
At this point it was getting close to the deadline, so I'm not sure I love this move, but I wound up swapping him out for a 3rd team D and Zack Moss. Zack Moss similarly had some good reports in preseason, but also some others saying that despite those reports he's still buried and only going to get a few touches, maybe some goal-line work. We'll see. I could have sat tight... or maybe swapped for Zamir White who I've been back/forth on and not taken the 3rd Team D. I've been looking at it for a while even though rosters are locked, and can't come up with an obvious "oh, I should have done X instead"... hell, maybe I should have just taken a 4th K or something instead of Moss. Dunno. Whatever... it's all definitely dart throws at that point.
WR - Isaiah McKenzie - BUF/7 - $6
RB - Zack Moss - BUF/7 - $3
3rd Team D (TBD)
I also briefly looked at getting Sutton back... maybe for Renfrow and Wilson, etc... but it just left my lineup too shallow on week 9 no matter how I sliced it. To get Sutton I'd need to give up Barkley or Kittle, and I wasn't going to do that... and Pickens also seemed too much of an upside play to want to unseat him as well. Hopefully Sutton doesn't go off for a monster year and sink me by missing out. I suspect he'll be the most widely-owned player that is NOT on my roster.
Step 7: Picking PKs/TDs
Blankenship seems by far the best $3 K value, even if week 14 bye... I only have $11 on bye that week so I think it's ok. I had no money on bye week 10, so next stop was taking the week 10 K and Ds. For my last K I liked Gano but have too much on week 9 bye already (see Sutton comment above)... so was looking at week 6 or 11 or 13 where I felt additional bye $ would be fine. Fairbarin coming off injury, so spent my extra $1 to get Bullock instead and minimize risk. That left weeks 11 and 13, so took those Ds. I glanced at Cade York because of his 70-yard FG range, but he's unproven (nor clear if he'll get many such opportunities for long FGs anyway, given the risks of a miss from that distance) and I think the bye week distribution takes precedence here.
PK - Randy Bullock - TEN/6 - $4
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/10 - $3
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/10 - $3
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/11 - $3
Step 8: Second-Guessing After the Deadline
One other option I looked at in retrospect: Remove both RBs $7 Brian Robinson and $3 Zack Moss, as well as the $3 Seahawks (my 3rd team D), and save $1 downgrading Bullock back to Fairbairn... then acquire $14 RB Chase Edmonds. It's a safer move at RB given Robinson's uncertainty, but I think Robinson may actually have more upside for the 2nd half of season, and having the 3rd D can't hurt... so maybe I made the right call after all.
Or maybe instead of pickup up Zack Moss in that last roster move, I should have just spent $2 upgrading Davis Mills -> Goff, and $1 upgrading Seattle -> Miami (no bye week impacts).
In the end, I did land exactly on my budget targets... $32 QB, $199 skill, $10 K, $9 D.
Querier says that there is one other team out there with $110 invested in my same top 4 guys of Allen/Cook/Barkley/Kelce... however they do not have Robinson, St. Brown, Renfrow, Kittle or even Pierce (I thought everyone had Pierce!?)
or 
