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2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (2 Viewers)

Puppies

Footballguy
Average Weekly Scores through week 12

Week 12 *** Season Average

200.05 ***** 175.40 aPalmer
192.45 ***** 172.35 wollac
175.55 ***** 172.09 ScottyBo
182.60 ***** 168.14 Scoobus
170.80 ***** 167.40 OpenSourceBeer (y) (added 11/28)
170.95 ***** 166.75 OleMissRebel
151.05 ***** 166.02 Army Eye
177.75 ***** 163.42 Sooted72
164.65 ***** 162.04 Menobrown
146.85 ***** 162.03 Bamabuddha
162.75 ***** 160.10 Not Smart
185.85 ***** 159.59 Bill Dauterive (y) (added 11/26)
163.05 ***** 159.01 ZWK
172.65 ***** 158.53 da_Budman
173.75 ***** 155.98 rzrback77
147.65 ***** 154.29 ChurchOfIggyPop

Failed to Advance: :cry:

141.40 ***** 158.02 FairWarning
135.75 ***** 156.42 ajm25701
131.75 ***** 156.33 Dope
111.50 ***** 150.08 Chet
117.40 ***** 148.26 Gottabesweet
 
Last edited:

apalmer

Footballguy
Onward we go. Week 13 shaping up as another possible high cut week, with only AZ and Carolina on bye.

Conner (15 teams), Hopkins (66), Murray (5), Brown (18), Green (22), Anderson (1), Prater (30), AZ D (64)
Darnold (2), Mayfield (38), Moore (28), Foreman (21), Marshall (1), Shenault (23), Hubbard (26), Tremble (2), Car D (34)

It looks like the biggest losses would be Hopkins, Prater, Moore, Foreman, Hubbard, Brown, Conner and the two Defenses, and most of those have missed significant time already so their teams have survived without them at times so far.

33 McCaffrey teams get a bonus week.

FWIW, I'll need the Viking D to step up as AZ is my only other D (and my only bye this week).
 

Puppies

Footballguy
Week 12 Statitstical Trivia ... and other fun with numbers

28 =
Roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @ 9.76%
18 =
Roster size with the lowest year to date survival rate @ 3.69% (lowest for 9 weeks in a row)
IMPLICATION: Uness you are a psychic on NFL injuries, you probably want to roster more than 18 players on your contest team next year :ponder:

The survival rate for all teams though 12 weeks is 5.06%
The survival rate for the FBGuys staff through 12 weeks is 7.41% (2 staff members of 27 remain)

Through 12 weeks of the contest, 11,634 of the 12,254 teams that entered have now been eliminated.
If your team survived week 12, your statistical chances of making the playoffs are 19.85 times better now than they were in week 1.
36.13% of the 620 surviving teams are projected to make the playoffs.

Nail-biters of the week:
Bamabuddha made the cut line by just 5.15 points
ChurchOfIggyPop made the cut line by just 5.95 points (Thank you, Mike PIttman)

Crushing the Cut Line: :drive:
aPalmer by 58.35 points
Wollac by 50.75 points

"Maxwell Smart" ... (missed it by THAT much 🤏) Award.... goes to FairWarning, who sadly came up just 0.30 short of the cut line.

The Turk Knocketh..... (sorry to see you go....) :cry:
Fair Warning
ajm25701
Dope
Chet
Gottabesweet

Note: Your team may show up next week in the 👻Phantom Standings 👻, assuming I can still find the time to keep up with it.


What's new for Next week??? >>>>>>>>> 40% cut line ! (ouch) :help:

Coming Soon: Subscriber Playoff Contest
Start planning your strategy now, especially if your team is watching from the sidelines like me....

Thanks to everyone who is posting in the forum for keeping the spirit going

Good luck to all the survivors as we move forward to week 13!
 
Last edited:

scottybo

code
# of live teams with these starting players on bye:
K. Murray - 5
S. Darnold - 2
J. Conner - 15
D. Foreman - 21
D. Hopkins - 66
M. Brown - 18
R. Moore - 41
D. Moore - 28
M. Prater - 30
AZ DEF - 64
CAR DEF - 34
 

da_budman

Footballguy
# of live teams with these starting players on bye:
K. Murray - 5
S. Darnold - 2
J. Conner - 15
D. Foreman - 21
D. Hopkins - 66
M. Brown - 18
R. Moore - 41
D. Moore - 28
M. Prater - 30
AZ DEF - 64
CAR DEF - 34
Interesting that Hopkins is the highest owned. He was a low owned player at the beginning due to missing the first 6 games. It shows you how important Hopkins has been for the remaining teams (like mine)
 

Puppies

Footballguy
Are you bummed because your team's been eliminated early ? :wall:
.......... Are you wondering how you'd be doing if your team were still alive ? :ponder:
....................Well, wonder no more, because I have you covered..... :pickle:

Week 12
- 👻 Phantom Standings 👻 (Eliminated teams that would have made the cut in week 12)

192.70 - Hagmania
190.10 - Dzambo
180.80 - Stubby
178.25 - The Stray Doug
173.55 - Puppies << << (me)
165.65 - Ackme
165.25 - RustyColts
163.45 - davidwb
161.65 - Rock Action
157.20 - Dacomish
156.90 - Baededel Moon
156.35 - Mister CIA Fan
156.15 - Trilliant
147.95 - Hot Sauce Guy
146.30 - dbc925
143.95 - The Winz
142.85 - Bass NBrew
142.40 - FormerFourDigit
142.35 - Monty Burns
141.70 ---- Week 12 Cut Line ------

We love this contest so much that we keep playing EVEN after we're eliminated !! ......Thank you! @Joe Bryant
 
Last edited:

TheWinz

Footballguy
If you had chosen to spend exactly $6 on D's, here is how they would rank, from worst to best (points in parenthesis):
- LAR (42)
- NO (47)
- LAC (52)
- IND (53)
- TB (64)
- CHI/NYG (67)
- JAC/NYG (67)
- CHI/HOU (68)
- HOU/JAC (68)
- CHI/JAC (72)
- CHI/DET (73)
- DET/HOU (73)
- DET/NYG (73)
- HOU/NYG (73)
- CHI/TEN (75)
- DET/JAC (75)
- CAR/NYG (77)
- CAR/HOU (79)
- JAC/TEN (80)
- NYG/TEN (80)
- HOU/TEN (81)
- ATL/CHI (82)
- CAR/CHI (82)
- HOU/SEA (82)
- NYG/NYJ (82)
- CHI/NYJ (83)
- NYG/SEA (83)
- CAR/JAC (84)
- CHI/SEA (84)
- DET/TEN (84)
- HOU/NYJ (85)
- JAC/SEA (85)
- CAR/DET (86)
- HOU/MIN (86)
- MIN/NYG (86)
- ATL/HOU (87)
- ATL/JAC (87)
- ARI/NYG (88)
- ATL/NYG (89)
- CAR/NYJ (89)
- DET/NYJ (89)
- JAC/NYJ (89)
- NYJ/SEA (89)
- ATL/DET (90)
- ATL/NYJ (90)
- JAC/MIN (91)
- ARI/CHI (92)
- ARI/JAC (93)
- CHI/MIN (93)
- DET/SEA (93)
- ARI/DET (94)
- ARI/TEN (94)
- CAR/SEA (94)
- DET/MIN (94)
- SEA/TEN (94)
- CAR/TEN (95)
- NYJ/TEN (95)
- CAR/MIN (97)
- ARI/HOU (98)
- ATL/SEA (98)
- ATL/CAR (99)
- MIN/NYJ (99)
- MIN/SEA (99)
- ARI/NYJ (100)
- ARI/SEA (100)
- MIN/TEN (100)
- ATL/MIN (102)
- ARI/CAR (103)
- ATL/TEN (104)
- ARI/ATL (106)
- ARI/MIN (108)

Of the 66 possible $3 duos, every one of them has outscored all 5 of the individual $6 defenses.
 

bamabuddha

Footballguy
Week 12 Statitstical Trivia ... and other fun with numbers

28 =
Roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @ 9.76%
18 =
Roster size with the lowest year to date survival rate @ 3.69% (lowest for 9 weeks in a row)
IMPLICATION: Uness you are a psychic on NFL injuries, you probably want to roster more than 18 players on your contest team next year :ponder:

The survival rate for all teams though 12 weeks is 5.06%
The survival rate for the FBGuys staff through 12 weeks is 7.41% (2 staff members of 27 remain)

Through 12 weeks of the contest, 11,634 of the 12,254 teams that entered have now been eliminated.
If your team survived week 12, your statistical chances of making the playoffs are 19.85 times better now than they were in week 1.
36.13% of the 620 surviving teams are projected to make the playoffs.

Nail-biters of the week:
Bamabuddha made the cut line by just 5.15 points
ChurchOfIggyPop made the cut line by just 5.95 points (Thank you, Mike PIttman)

Crushing the Cut Line: :drive:
aPalmer by 58.35 points
Wollac by 50.75 points

"Maxwell Smart" ... (missed it by THAT much 🤏) Award.... goes to FairWarning, who sadly came up just 0.30 short of the cut line.

The Turk Knocketh..... (sorry to see you go....) :cry:
Fair Warning
ajm25701
Dope
Chet
Gottabesweet

Note: Your team may show up next week in the 👻Phantom Standings 👻, assuming I can still find the time to keep up with it.


What's new for Next week??? >>>>>>>>> 40% cut line ! (ouch) :help:

Coming Soon: Subscriber Playoff Contest
Start planning your strategy now, especially if your team is watching from the sidelines like me....

Thanks to everyone who is posting in the forum for keeping the spirit going

Good luck to all the survivors as we move forward to week 13!

Yeah, never been close to meeting the Turk … until this week … but feeling my team is close to going out…

too many injuries at RB, WR and TE

so just continuing to ride until I am dumped off the wave
 

Bill Dauterive

Footballguy
If you had chosen to spend exactly $6 on D's, here is how they would rank, from worst to best (points in parenthesis):
- LAR (42)
- NO (47)
- LAC (52)
- IND (53)
- TB (64)
- CHI/NYG (67)
- JAC/NYG (67)
- CHI/HOU (68)
- HOU/JAC (68)
- CHI/JAC (72)
- CHI/DET (73)
- DET/HOU (73)
- DET/NYG (73)
- HOU/NYG (73)
- CHI/TEN (75)
- DET/JAC (75)
- CAR/NYG (77)
- CAR/HOU (79)
- JAC/TEN (80)
- NYG/TEN (80)
- HOU/TEN (81)
- ATL/CHI (82)
- CAR/CHI (82)
- HOU/SEA (82)
- NYG/NYJ (82)
- CHI/NYJ (83)
- NYG/SEA (83)
- CAR/JAC (84)
- CHI/SEA (84)
- DET/TEN (84)
- HOU/NYJ (85)
- JAC/SEA (85)
- CAR/DET (86)
- HOU/MIN (86)
- MIN/NYG (86)
- ATL/HOU (87)
- ATL/JAC (87)
- ARI/NYG (88)
- ATL/NYG (89)
- CAR/NYJ (89)
- DET/NYJ (89)
- JAC/NYJ (89)
- NYJ/SEA (89)
- ATL/DET (90)
- ATL/NYJ (90)
- JAC/MIN (91)
- ARI/CHI (92)
- ARI/JAC (93)
- CHI/MIN (93)
- DET/SEA (93)
- ARI/DET (94)
- ARI/TEN (94)
- CAR/SEA (94)
- DET/MIN (94)
- SEA/TEN (94)
- CAR/TEN (95)
- NYJ/TEN (95)
- CAR/MIN (97)
- ARI/HOU (98)
- ATL/SEA (98)
- ATL/CAR (99)
- MIN/NYJ (99)
- MIN/SEA (99)
- ARI/NYJ (100)
- ARI/SEA (100)
- MIN/TEN (100)
- ATL/MIN (102)
- ARI/CAR (103)
- ATL/TEN (104)
- ARI/ATL (106)
- ARI/MIN (108)

Of the 66 possible $3 duos, every one of them has outscored all 5 of the individual $6 defenses.
Very interesting data. I would have suspected it, but proving it takes a lot more doing.
 

Puppies

Footballguy
Did you notice??? (edited at 6:08pm 11/30/22 to correct an error I made in the original post)

(a little quirk in the scoring system for the subscriber contest actually happend this week)

We probably all know that there are a few unique things about the scoring system for the subscriber contest.... like no points for 2 point conversions, for example.
(The 2 points don't count for the team, and the reception, receiving yards or rushing yards do not count for the offensive player who completed the 2-point conversion. Also if the QB completed a pass in making the 2-point conversion, the passing yards don't count for the QB).

Mostly, the things that are unique about the scoring system rarely occurr and usually go unoticed.


But a funny thing happend this week in the Tennessee - Cincinnati game.....

Ryan Tannehill threw a short pass to Derrick Henry, who scrambled for 69 yards, but fumbled just short of the end zone. The fumble was recovered by Tennessee wide receiver Treylon Burks in the end zone for a touchdown.

Here's how it is scored according to the rules:

No points for the touchdown for the wide receiver (offensive player) who recovered the ball in the end zone....because ONLY rushing TDs and receiving TDs count for offensive players, and this was a "Fumble Recovery TD".

So the way I understand the rules, 6 points would be awarded to the Tennessee Defense/Special Teams, even though the player who recovered the fumble for the TD was NOT a defensive player.

Below is the explanation copied from the Subscriber Contest Official Rules:

For the purposes of clarity, we declare a Defensive/ST TD to be any TD that is not a rushing or a passing TD (This will very occasionally INCLUDE a fumble recovery TD by an offensive player, and it might theoretically EXCLUDE a passing or rushing TD that happens on a special teams play. So be it.) A Turnover is defined to be a fumble lost or an interception.




This is one example where it would seem that owners of the Tennessee Defense seemingly get a nice bonus due to this little quirk in the scoring system.
And, for owners of Tennessee rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks, who cost $12 against your salary cap... too bad !! no points for that fumble recovery TD.

But wait ! That's NOT how it was scored in the contest this week...
Treylon Burks had 4 receptions for 70 yards, which should amount to 11.0 points. (no rushes; no rushing yards)
But In the raw scores on the football guys website, it shows Burks getting 17.0 points, which apparently included 6 points for the TD. ??
Further, I checked several live teams who have Treylon Burks and saw that he was in fact given the extra 6 points for that TD.


The raw scores show Tennessee Defense with just 1 point, (not the extra 6 points for the TD).
Futher, I checked several teams who have the Tennessee Defense and verified that they in fact, only got 1 point.

Maybe I need some help understanding the rules for this situation as I copied and pasted above. The points do not appear to have been awarded as stated in the rules.


Keep in mind that the time to sort out scoring descrepancies and adjustments is long past, so this is water under the bridge... but food for thought none the less.

If anyone who reads this knows the answer or can provide an explanation, please do so, because I'm stumped. Thanks !!



And finally..... Good luck to everyone who advanced to week 13.

@Contest Turk ... I'm wondering if you might possibly be able to share your thoughts on this. This certainly is NOT a complaint, but simply a request for clarification. I realize there are times when stat errors happen and may not be noticed in time to be reflected in the official scoring for the subscriber contest, and I suspect maybe that's what happened here. But I'm curious because I want to make sure I really do understand how the scoring works. I'd like to know if the Tennessee Defense/ST actually should have been given that TD or not, or if should have been awarded to Treylon Burks, who had the fumble recovery TD. Any insight you may be able to provide would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!!
 
Last edited:

apalmer

Footballguy
Did you notice???

(a little quirk in the scoring system for the subscriber contest actually happend this week)

We probably all know that there are a few unique things about the scoring system for the subscriber contest.... like no points for 2 point conversions, for example.
(The 2 points don't count for the team, and the reception, receiving yards or rushing yards do not count for the offensive player who completed the 2-point conversion. Also if the QB completed a pass in making the 2-point conversion, the passing yards don't count for the QB).

Mostly, the things that are unique about the scoring system rarely occurr and usually go unoticed.


But a funny thing happend this week in the Tennessee - Cincinnati game.....

Ryan Tannehill threw a short pass to Derrick Henry, who scrambled for 69 yards, but fumbled just short of the end zone. The fumble was recovered by Tennessee wide receiver Treylon Burks in the end zone for a touchdown.

Here's how it is scored according to the rules:

No points for the touchdown for the wide receiver (offensive player) who recovered the ball in the end zone....because ONLY rushing TDs and receiving TDs count for offensive players, and this was a "Fumble Recovery TD".

So the way I understnad the rules, 6 points would be awarded to the Tennessee Defense/Special Teams, even though the player who recovered the fumble for the TD was NOT a defensive player.

Below is the explanation copied from the Subscriber Contest Official Rules:

For the purposes of clarity, we declare a Defensive/ST TD to be any TD that is not a rushing or a passing TD (This will very occasionally INCLUDE a fumble recovery TD by an offensive player, and it might theoretically EXCLUDE a passing or rushing TD that happens on a special teams play. So be it.) A Turnover is defined to be a fumble lost or an interception.


********
I only noticed this because the raw score for the Tenessee defense did not match what I calculated for it when I looked at the stats. The difference was the 6 points that were awarded when this unusual scoring play occurred. The raw scores show Tennessee Defense with 7.0 points.

This is one example where owners of the Tennessee Defense seemingly got a nice bonus due to this little quirk in the scoring system.
For owners of Tennessee rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks, who cost $12 against your salary cap... too bad !! no points for that fumble recovery TD.

But wait ! IT gets even crazier.....
Treylon Burks had 4 receptions for 70 yards, which should amount to 11.0 points. (no rushes; no rushing yards)
In the raw scores that show up on the football guys website, it shows Burks getting 17.0 points, which apparently included 6 points for the TD.
But I checked several live teams who have Burks on their rosters.... and in the official points Burks got ...... (wait for it).... only 8.5 points.
The raw scores show Tennessee Defense with 7 points, but live teams with Tenneseee's defense only got 1 point in the contest, so it appears to me that the TD was not awarded to the Tennessee Defense/ST the way the rules suggest it should have been.


I'm not sure what to think about this, because I can't find anything that would amount to Burks losing the 2.50 point difference between 11.0 and 8.5. Nothing I can find in the stats adds up to this. I'm also not sure why the TD was not awarded to the Tennessee Defense/Special Teams the way the rules suggest it would.

Either way, the time to sort out scoring descrepancies and adjustments is long past, so this is water under the bridge... but food for thought none the less.

If anyone who reads this knows the answer or can provide an explanation, please do so, because I'm stumped. Thanks !!



And finally..... Good luck to everyone who advanced to week 13.

@Joe Bryant ... I'm wondering if you might possibly be able to share any thoughts on this. This certainly is NOT a complaint, but rather a plea for clarification. I realize there are times when stat errors happen and may not be noticed in time to be reflected in the official scoring for the subscriber contest, and I suspect maybe that's what happened here. But I'm curious because I want to make sure I really do understand how the scoring works. I'd like to know if the Tennessee Defense/ST actually should have been given that TD or not, and how Treylon Burks lost those mystery 2.5 points. Any insight you may be able to provide would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!!
probably better question for @Contest Turk
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
Very interesting data. I would have suspected it, but proving it takes a lot more doing.
I have data on contest D's going back to 2010. In 5 of the last 13 years, there were a combined 196 instances where you could've rostered 4 for the price of 1! And guess what? Many people still chose the single expensive D's, even though they never had a chance to outscore 4 cheap D's. I suppose there is 1 reason to roster an overly expensive D, and that's because you have hit the 30 player limit. Otherwise, it's insanity. As an example, PIT ($9) scored 77 points in 2011, but you could've had 229 points with a quad combo of BUF, DEN, JAC ($2 each) and SEA ($3), all of whom outscored PIT by themselves.

It wasn't offered this year, but since 2010, in 10 of the 13 years, there were a combined 6427 instances where you could've rostered 3 for the price of 1! In these cases, 99.6% of the time (6399/6427) the trio outscored the single D. And in every one of those 28 times where the single D outscored 3 cheap ones, the cheap D's had bye conflicts, so the average person wouldn't have chosen those particular trios anyway.

This year, the best you can do is 2 for 1. 66 different combos for $6, and 84 more for $7, for a total of 150. I have already tallied the 66 combos for $6, and all are currently outscoring their single $6 rival D's. I will work later on the 84 options for $7, but at first glance, I think there will be a few crappy combos involving CHI and LV.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Did you notice??? (edited at 6:08pm 11/30/22 to correct an error I made in the original post)

(a little quirk in the scoring system for the subscriber contest actually happend this week)

We probably all know that there are a few unique things about the scoring system for the subscriber contest.... like no points for 2 point conversions, for example.
(The 2 points don't count for the team, and the reception, receiving yards or rushing yards do not count for the offensive player who completed the 2-point conversion. Also if the QB completed a pass in making the 2-point conversion, the passing yards don't count for the QB).

Mostly, the things that are unique about the scoring system rarely occurr and usually go unoticed.


But a funny thing happend this week in the Tennessee - Cincinnati game.....

Ryan Tannehill threw a short pass to Derrick Henry, who scrambled for 69 yards, but fumbled just short of the end zone. The fumble was recovered by Tennessee wide receiver Treylon Burks in the end zone for a touchdown.

Here's how it is scored according to the rules:

No points for the touchdown for the wide receiver (offensive player) who recovered the ball in the end zone....because ONLY rushing TDs and receiving TDs count for offensive players, and this was a "Fumble Recovery TD".

So the way I understand the rules, 6 points would be awarded to the Tennessee Defense/Special Teams, even though the player who recovered the fumble for the TD was NOT a defensive player.

Below is the explanation copied from the Subscriber Contest Official Rules:

For the purposes of clarity, we declare a Defensive/ST TD to be any TD that is not a rushing or a passing TD (This will very occasionally INCLUDE a fumble recovery TD by an offensive player, and it might theoretically EXCLUDE a passing or rushing TD that happens on a special teams play. So be it.) A Turnover is defined to be a fumble lost or an interception.




This is one example where it would seem that owners of the Tennessee Defense seemingly get a nice bonus due to this little quirk in the scoring system.
And, for owners of Tennessee rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks, who cost $12 against your salary cap... too bad !! no points for that fumble recovery TD.

But wait ! That's NOT how it was scored in the contest this week...
Treylon Burks had 4 receptions for 70 yards, which should amount to 11.0 points. (no rushes; no rushing yards)
But In the raw scores on the football guys website, it shows Burks getting 17.0 points, which apparently included 6 points for the TD. ??
Further, I checked several live teams who have Treylon Burks and saw that he was in fact given the extra 6 points for that TD.


The raw scores show Tennessee Defense with just 1 point, (not the extra 6 points for the TD).
Futher, I checked several teams who have the Tennessee Defense and verified that they in fact, only got 1 point.

Maybe I need some help understanding the rules for this situation as I copied and pasted above. The points do not appear to have been awarded as stated in the rules.


Keep in mind that the time to sort out scoring descrepancies and adjustments is long past, so this is water under the bridge... but food for thought none the less.

If anyone who reads this knows the answer or can provide an explanation, please do so, because I'm stumped. Thanks !!



And finally..... Good luck to everyone who advanced to week 13.

@Contest Turk ... I'm wondering if you might possibly be able to share your thoughts on this. This certainly is NOT a complaint, but simply a request for clarification. I realize there are times when stat errors happen and may not be noticed in time to be reflected in the official scoring for the subscriber contest, and I suspect maybe that's what happened here. But I'm curious because I want to make sure I really do understand how the scoring works. I'd like to know if the Tennessee Defense/ST actually should have been given that TD or not, or if should have been awarded to Treylon Burks, who had the fumble recovery TD. Any insight you may be able to provide would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!!
Should have sent this to the FBG help desk

All scoring is determined final at 11:59pm ET on the day after the last game day of the week (in a typical week, this would be Tuesday). Users have until 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on the following day (Wednesday in a typical week) to report possible scoring errors or discrepancies for that week's games. All errors reported via the FBG help desk before that time will be corrected as soon as possible. Any error not reported before the deadline specified above (including, but not limited to, errors retroactively introduced by official league stat changes) will stand as posted.

I think you brought this up in time to be corrected but no one saw it. Looks like 30 Tenn D owners were cut this week. 11 Burkes teams still alive. This one on the error.


This one would be iffy https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102448/week/12

Another save https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108278/week/12

And another https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111529/week/12
 

da_budman

Footballguy
Did you notice??? (edited at 6:08pm 11/30/22 to correct an error I made in the original post)

(a little quirk in the scoring system for the subscriber contest actually happend this week)

We probably all know that there are a few unique things about the scoring system for the subscriber contest.... like no points for 2 point conversions, for example.
(The 2 points don't count for the team, and the reception, receiving yards or rushing yards do not count for the offensive player who completed the 2-point conversion. Also if the QB completed a pass in making the 2-point conversion, the passing yards don't count for the QB).

Mostly, the things that are unique about the scoring system rarely occurr and usually go unoticed.


But a funny thing happend this week in the Tennessee - Cincinnati game.....

Ryan Tannehill threw a short pass to Derrick Henry, who scrambled for 69 yards, but fumbled just short of the end zone. The fumble was recovered by Tennessee wide receiver Treylon Burks in the end zone for a touchdown.

Here's how it is scored according to the rules:

No points for the touchdown for the wide receiver (offensive player) who recovered the ball in the end zone....because ONLY rushing TDs and receiving TDs count for offensive players, and this was a "Fumble Recovery TD".

So the way I understand the rules, 6 points would be awarded to the Tennessee Defense/Special Teams, even though the player who recovered the fumble for the TD was NOT a defensive player.

Below is the explanation copied from the Subscriber Contest Official Rules:

[]or the purposes of clarity, we declare a Defensive/ST TD to be any TD that is not a rushing or a passing TD This will very occasionally INCLUDE a fumble recovery TD by an offensive player, and it might theoretically EXCLUDE a passing or rushing TD that happens on a special teams play. So be it.) A Turnover is defined to be a fumble lost or an interception.




This is one example where it would seem that owners of the Tennessee Defense seemingly get a nice bonus due to this little quirk in the scoring system.
And, for owners of Tennessee rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks, who cost $12 against your salary cap... too bad !! no points for that fumble recovery TD.

But wait ! That's NOT how it was scored in the contest this week...
Treylon Burks had 4 receptions for 70 yards, which should amount to 11.0 points. (no rushes; no rushing yards)
But In the raw scores on the football guys website, it shows Burks getting 17.0 points, which apparently included 6 points for the TD. ??
Further, I checked several live teams who have Treylon Burks and saw that he was in fact given the extra 6 points for that TD.


The raw scores show Tennessee Defense with just 1 point, (not the extra 6 points for the TD).
Futher, I checked several teams who have the Tennessee Defense and verified that they in fact, only got 1 point.

Maybe I need some help understanding the rules for this situation as I copied and pasted above. The points do not appear to have been awarded as stated in the rules.


Keep in mind that the time to sort out scoring descrepancies and adjustments is long past, so this is water under the bridge... but food for thought none the less.

If anyone who reads this knows the answer or can provide an explanation, please do so, because I'm stumped. Thanks !!



And finally..... Good luck to everyone who advanced to week 13.

@Contest Turk ... I'm wondering if you might possibly be able to share your thoughts on this. This certainly is NOT a complaint, but simply a request for clarification. I realize there are times when stat errors happen and may not be noticed in time to be reflected in the official scoring for the subscriber contest, and I suspect maybe that's what happened here. But I'm curious because I want to make sure I really do understand how the scoring works. I'd like to know if the Tennessee Defense/ST actually should have been given that TD or not, or if should have been awarded to Treylon Burks, who had the fumble recovery TD. Any insight you may be able to provide would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!!
The following should be followed by " while on defense" I love these interesting quirks in rules.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
Very interesting data. I would have suspected it, but proving it takes a lot more doing.
I have data on contest D's going back to 2010. In 5 of the last 13 years, there were a combined 196 instances where you could've rostered 4 for the price of 1! And guess what? Many people still chose the single expensive D's, even though they never had a chance to outscore 4 cheap D's. I suppose there is 1 reason to roster an overly expensive D, and that's because you have hit the 30 player limit. Otherwise, it's insanity. As an example, PIT ($9) scored 77 points in 2011, but you could've had 229 points with a quad combo of BUF, DEN, JAC ($2 each) and SEA ($3), all of whom outscored PIT by themselves.

It wasn't offered this year, but since 2010, in 10 of the 13 years, there were a combined 6427 instances where you could've rostered 3 for the price of 1! In these cases, 99.6% of the time (6399/6427) the trio outscored the single D. And in every one of those 28 times where the single D outscored 3 cheap ones, the cheap D's had bye conflicts, so the average person wouldn't have chosen those particular trios anyway.

This year, the best you can do is 2 for 1. 66 different combos for $6, and 84 more for $7, for a total of 150. I have already tallied the 66 combos for $6, and all are currently outscoring their single $6 rival D's. I will work later on the 84 options for $7, but at first glance, I think there will be a few crappy combos involving CHI and LV.
Finishing up with contest D data. There were only 2 D's for $7 (BUF & DAL). The masses overwhelmingly chose BUF over DAL. BUF was owned by 1681 from the start (4th most common D) while DAL ranked 25th with 326 owners. So, how are they doing vs the 84 possible combos for $7?
BUF, currently D8, is outscoring 12 of 84 = 14.3%
DAL, currently D2, is outscoring 34 of 84 = 40.5%
I like the percentage for Dallas, but not Buffalo, especially when they are a top 8 D.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
Even with how well Dallas is performing, I can't see paying up for a Defense. Thanks for the stats.
Agreed. Even though DAL is ranked #2 right now, they are still being outscored by 60% of the available combos for the same price. And technically, that number should be way higher, for a few reasons. First, 12 of the combos they are outscoring have the Raiders, who everyone knew to avoid like the plague. And second, I did not remove combos with the same bye. So really, that 40% should look more like 20%. That's a horrible number for being the #2 D in the contest.
 

apalmer

Footballguy
Not thrilled with either the Allen or Stevenson scores.. Neither is terrible, but I had hoped for at least 5-10 points more from each. I have lots of guys who can climb over Stevenson for RB/flex scores, but I can't expect Pickett to provide the 35 I've come to expect from Allen. What kind of Bizarro World am I in where Buffalo goes run-game heavy and NE relies on Mac Jones passing?
 
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Puppies

Footballguy
Comparing to last year....

When your team gets bounced early, you end up with time in your hands to do silly stuff.....
like maintain "Phantom Standings" for your team and those of your eliminated buddies ... (I hope some of my fellow boot-ees are enjoying the humor),
or compare this year's eliminated team to last year's eliminated team.

From almost the very beginning this year, I never really felt good about my team, because even though I was easily clearing the cut line in the early weeks, my team was averaging 20 to 25 points per week less than last year's team. That fact gave me reason for concern. I knew if a couple key players stopped scoring, or got injured, I was doomed because my team's total output just not up to par with the rest of the field. And even if I were lucky to avoid injuries and other problems, my scores were not going to put me anywhere close to any prize, (other than possibly scoring a $100 bonus from Joe Bryant's bonus offer). After about 6 weeks into the season, I knew that was all I was really playing for this year.

Last year I got bounced really early in week 4, but had averaged 197.88 points up until my week 4 disaster where I scored only 137.90 and missed the cut by 4.10 points. Except for that single disaster week, I probably had my second best team ever in the 12 years I have played in this contest (the only better year being 2011 when I made the playoffs).

This year my team was averaging only 161.11 through 10 weeks and was bounced in week 11 with only 103.85, missing the cut by 13.15 points. That was embarassing. I apparently rostered too few stud players and too many players that I thought were proimising enough to out-play their projections, but didn't. The challenging part is that I know that statistically, larger roster teams are far more likely to survive to the playoffs than smaller roster teams. So the obvious trick is choosing 'stud' players that are also likey to stay healthy (which probably requires being both lucky AND good). To anyone reading this who has managed to do that... you know who you are! If all of your major point producers manage to stay healthy, you'll likey still survive if other players on your roster get injured.

Last year after my team was eliminated in week 4, I continued to track it just to see how it would have done if it had not been eliminated. The very next week, it scored 252.65 points, and I found myself wondering where the hell those points were in week 4. After being eliminated so early last year, my team would have made the cut every week afterward and made the playoffs, scoring 214.45 in in week 14 and crushing the cut line by 71.00 points. In the three week playoff last year, my phantom team put up scores of 198.20, 196.30, and 197.30, (talk about consistency) for a total of 591.80, and would have finished in 11th place. Including the playoff weeks, last year's roster averaged 183.73 over the 17 weeks.

That's not going to happen with this year's phantom team - It's just not scoring anything close to that and likely will not even avoid another elimination week in the 2 weeks that remain.

Lessons learned for next year....
 
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Puppies

Footballguy
Running Backs that are out-playing their pre-season FBGuys projections: ............. (too bad I can't figure out how to make narrow columns)
(through 12 weeks)

Player / Team$ capTotal Fantasy PointsProjected ppgactual ppgDifference
Austin Ekeler LAC$ 34
217.10​
16.2419.743.50
Derrick Henry TEN$ 31
209.30​
15.8819.033.15
Josh Jacobs LV$ 19
202.80​
10.0620.2810.22
Nick Chubb CLE$ 24
199.60​
13.5318.154.62
Saquon Barkley NYG$ 26
181.00​
13.5916.452.86
Rhomande Stevenson NE$ 15
158.90​
10.0614.454.39
Miles Sanders PHI$ 17
151.50​
9.3513.774.42
Jamal Williams DET$ 10
161.60​
6.1214.698.57
Ken Walker III SEA$ 14
136.50​
8.4112.414.00
Jeff Wilson MIA$ 3
119.40​
3.4110.967.52
Breece Hall NYJ$ 21
107.60​
10.7115.374.66
Khalil Herbert CHI$9
103.60​
5.5310.364.83
 
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Army Eye

Footballguy
Not thrilled with either the Allen or Stevenson scores.. Neither is terrible, but I had hoped for at least 5-10 points more from each. I have lots of guys who can climb over Stevenson for RB/flex scores, but I can't expect Pickett to provide the 35 I've come to expect from Allen. What kind of Bizarro World am I in where Buffalo goes run-game heavy and NE relies on Mac Jones passing?

I would have thought Stevenson with 100% workload would be a game-breaker. Not his fault, but, what a disappointment that's been
 

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