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2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (1 Viewer)

TheWinz

Footballguy
Once again, I am jumping the gun. The contest typically opens the first week of August, but why not start discussions early? Sure, Joe and Co. could very well change the format entirely, but it doesn't mean our early discussions are for naught. And yes, even if the format stays the same, many will question why create the thread so early? For that, the answer is clear - this contest is hands down my favorite part of FF. I only play in one redraft league every year, and it's full of guppies. My $45 donation to this site is solely for this contest. It's free to yap with you all, but to get booted early from this contest every year is a privilege, not a right.

Sadly, when the site did an overhaul, they also deleted all past data from previous contests. Even if you go to previous threads, none of the links work. Luckily, there are many stat nerds who probably have data from year's past. Once I finish with the defenses for the 2020 season (coming soon), I will be posting my yearly "expensive defenses are not worth it" stats. I found my old defense files and will provide data going all the way back to the 2010 Subscriber Contest. If 12 years is not a good sample size, I don't know what is.

I don't expect alot of traffic to this thread early, but hopefully I don't end up talking to myself for a month.

Here is a link to this year's Contest Querier
 
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Thanks for starting this @TheWinz! Always my favorite feature of FBG's. Last year I was able to place 13th (and was only a MNF fizzle out by Chubb away from placing in the money). @Steeler finished 2nd and @Balco finished 6th in the money. It was nice to see some of our regulars place so high and it added to the playoffs excitment. 

Last year after the final game I decided to write up a de-brief of how I formed my roster to get me there. It may or may not help folks when the new contest rolls out (either by the contest changing or own personal formulas) but its what helped me:

"QB - I was adamant that I wanted 3 for depth and coverage and had I not have spent $8 on Goff I could very easily have been bounced a few different weeks in this contest when he outscored both Rodgers/$17 and Big Ben. Rodgers was coming off of a MVP performance and his track record in weeks 15-17 were crazy good, I had a hunch he may produce - the Toe very much put a damper on that. Big Ben at $9 was value in my eyes for depth. 

RB - I went the 3 bellcow/stud route plus a sprinkling of a few other values. My main 3 were Mixon $27/Zeke$27/Chubb$26. Now you look at that and say Wait a minute Zeke and Chubb were in timeshares. Yes they were but when I used the FBG pre-season projections they were something like 6/7 in scoring and for the prices they were they were more value given the volume I felt they would have. Mixon was more of the prototypical bell cow but I felt he would increase in the passing game and he did. Michel $5 was a last minute add but it was around the time he got traded, I went with Hyde $4 rather than the pricier Robinson thinking his connection with Meyer may be a sneaky value. Stevenson at $3 was a rookie dart throw and Ingram at $3 was a huge value even when he was with Houston, of course when he went to NO and Kamara was out it was huge. 

WR - I didn't spend here and that was my downfall, I chose Evans/$21 over Godwin/AB as I wanted a piece of that TB passing offense and felt more would have Godwin/AB and wanted to be a difference when/if got to the finals. Higgins was value at $18 and I felt he would do exactly what he did, lived in the flashier Chase shadow and when they game-planned for Chase he reaped the benefits. Jeudy/$16 was such promise but that early injury sidetracked his chances.  I fell into the "preseason hype trap" with Callaway/$5 and Edwards/$4 neither really were consistent although both counted for me at various times in the contest. MVS/$3 was one of the most widely owned players but I'm sure we all felt the same reason why - he is madly inconsistent when healthy, one week he catches 2-3 deep balls and a TD and the next a goosegg. Terrible for weekly or Daily but perfect for this contest. 

TE - Here is where I had changed gears from years past, every year I went light and scrimped and saved and didn't spend much. Well Andrews/$19 was quite often a weekly Flex option with the TE premium scoring and Hockenson/$16 was steady enough to push Andrews to that Flex when he was healthy. Ertz/$7 was a pre-season conundrum on Philly as he was sharing with Goedert and I had a feeling if Goedert would produce they would find a suiter for Ertz and he landed in a great spot in Arizona - counted every week for me in the playoffs with Andrews in a Flex. TE was a gamechanger for me! 

 K - I used the pre-season FBG articles on K's as I don't use them in my regular league and have not really kept up on them and settled on 3 K's: McManus/$3, Hopkins/$3 and McPherson/$2 - all cheap and more importantly all LONG distance kickers and given the long distance yardage bonus in this contest this was an easy fill. All 3 were great in the season, and even when Hopkins got cut for a few weeks I still had 2 to go (again another reason to have 3). 

Def - Packers/$2 and Cowboys/$2 I needed to go light here for money elsewhere and used a pre-season strength of schedule article from FBG to help guide me. Both scored well this year and my only regret was not having a 3rd option in week 17 when the best of the 2 only scored 2 points....that may have cost me a place at finishing in the money. "

 
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Thanks for starting this @TheWinz! Always my favorite feature of FBG's. Last year I was able to place 13th (and was only a MNF fizzle out by Chubb away from placing in the money). @Steeler finished 2nd and @Balco finished 6th in the money. It was nice to see some of our regulars place so high and it added to the playoffs excitment. 
It was that same Chubb game that cost me first place. 😡 It would have been a long shot anyway since I needed 27 pts IIRC

 
Finished the stats for defenses.  Since 2010, there have been 6623 instances where you could've purchased 3 or more defenses for the price of one...

2010 - 236 trio combinations were available.  All 236 outscored MIN ($7) and NYJ ($9).
2011 - 644 trio or quad combinations were available.  All 644 outscored PIT ($9), GB ($8), NE, NYJ, PHI ($7) and BAL, CHI, DET, NYG ($6).
2012 - No trio combinations were available.  Prices ranged from $3 to $6.
2013 - No trio combinations were available.  Prices ranged from $3 to $6.
2014 - 78 trio combinations were available.  All 78 outscored SEA ($9).
2015 - 1054 trio or quad combinations were available.  In total, 1044 outscored SEA ($12), BUF ($11), STL ($10), and CAR, HOU ($9).
2016 - 257 trio or quad combinations were available.  In total, 248 outscored DEN ($8), ARI, CAR, SEA ($7), and BUF, GB, KC, LAR, MIN, NE, PHI ($6).
2017 - 763 trio or quad combinations were available.  In total, 760 outscored DEN ($9), HOU, SEA ($8), ARI, KC, MIN ($7), and ATL, NE, NYG ($6).
2018 - 1233 trio or quad combinations were available.  All 1233 outscored JAC ($10), LAR, PHI ($8), BAL, HOU, LAC, MIN ($7), and CAR, DEN, NO ($6).
2019 - 28 trio combinations were available.  All 28 outscored CHI ($10).
2020 - 900 trio combinations were available.  In total, 872 outscored PIT, SF ($7) and BAL ($6).
2021 - 1430 trio combinations were available.  In total, 1424 outscored PIT, TB ($7) and LAR, NE ($6).

So, of the 6623 instances, 6567 times it was beneficial to choose lots of cheapies instead of an expensive one.  That's 99.15%.  Now, I can see one reason to pay for a stud D - if you max out your roster spots.

 
TheWinz said:
So, of the 6623 instances, 6567 times it was beneficial to choose lots of cheapies instead of an expensive one.  That's 99.15%.  Now, I can see one reason to pay for a stud D - if you max out your roster spots.
my 3 defense strategy really paid off last year. Every week one of them crushed it. I had Dallas, Cinci & i forget who the 3rd was. 

 
Let's talk kickers now.  Typically, if a kicker isn't kicking, it's not because of injury; it's because he sucks and lost his job.  You don't have to worry about defenses like that.  And sure, the cheaper the kicker, the more likely they are to lose their job.  For the most part, that is why people shy away from cheapies.  But can an expensive kicker hold his own against 2 cheapies who don't lose their jobs due to suckage?  The answer is an overwhelming no.  So, the key to choosing kickers is to find cheap ones that have job security, but is this possible?  It kinda is, if you are willing to do a little research.  I have never chosen a contest kicker if I thought I could choose 2 for the same price that would keep their jobs.

 
Let's talk kickers now.  Typically, if a kicker isn't kicking, it's not because of injury; it's because he sucks and lost his job.  You don't have to worry about defenses like that.  And sure, the cheaper the kicker, the more likely they are to lose their job.  For the most part, that is why people shy away from cheapies.  But can an expensive kicker hold his own against 2 cheapies who don't lose their jobs due to suckage?  The answer is an overwhelming no.  So, the key to choosing kickers is to find cheap ones that have job security, but is this possible?  It kinda is, if you are willing to do a little research.  I have never chosen a contest kicker if I thought I could choose 2 for the same price that would keep their jobs.
I go with the same strategy as D/ST. 3 cheap kickers. If one loses his job, ah well, I’ve got 2 more. And 3 K gives you 3 chances each week at a 10+ point performance. Sometimes those extra K points can mean the difference at the cut line. 

 
I go with the same strategy as D/ST. 3 cheap kickers. If one loses his job, ah well, I’ve got 2 more. And 3 K gives you 3 chances each week at a 10+ point performance. Sometimes those extra K points can mean the difference at the cut line. 
With kickers, I hunt for a combo of job security and team offensive prowess.  Leg strength doesn't really matter, because kickers rarely lose their jobs because of it (see Succop, Ryan).  I always try to roster 3 D's and K's each, but if I have to downsize to 2, it will be D's every single time.

As for D's, it is one of the few times where I use SoS.  I still limit myself to the cheapest ones, but I feel teams that D's face are just as important as the D's themselves.  Would you rather have your $6 D face the Packers, or your $2 D face the Texans?

 
depends. The SF D did a pretty good job on those packers in the playoffs. Team won without scoring an offensive TD! 
As part of my 12 year research on team D's for the contest, I also looked at the offenses those D's faced.  As an example, Brees and the Saints gave up only 46 points to opposing defenses in 2019.  In that same year, Winston and the Bucs gave up 158 points.  That certainly is a compelling argument for using SoS.

 
Dacomish said:
 K - I used the pre-season FBG articles on K's as I don't use them in my regular league and have not really kept up on them and settled on 3 K's: McManus/$3, Hopkins/$3 and McPherson/$2 - all cheap and more importantly all LONG distance kickers and given the long distance yardage bonus in this contest this was an easy fill. All 3 were great in the season, and even when Hopkins got cut for a few weeks I still had 2 to go (again another reason to have 3). 
Actually, even though Hopkins was cut by WAS, he only missed week 7.  Sure, he changed his bye from week 7 to 9, but he finished the contest as K10, right between Tucker and Prater.  He is a perfect example of an underrated contest kicker.  WAS had no reason to cut him, and that's why LAC picked him right up.  He was K12 with WAS thru 6 weeks, and was K8 with LAC for the rest of the contest.  He is not a strong-legged kicker, with a career long of 56 through 7 seasons.  But he is accurate (top 20 all-time).  He enters 2022 as the Chargers top guy, and long-legged James McCourt as his competition.  IF Dustin is $3 and has beaten out McCourt (which I fully expect), he will be my first contest selection. 

 
As part of my 12 year research on team D's for the contest, I also looked at the offenses those D's faced.  As an example, Brees and the Saints gave up only 46 points to opposing defenses in 2019.  In that same year, Winston and the Bucs gave up 158 points.  That certainly is a compelling argument for using SoS.
Absolutely true - not disputing that part. Just saying an elite defense can shut down a potent offense. SoS is always a bit of a flawed analysis, IMO.

Also, we use SoS as a prediction - yet defenses gain and lose players, coaches,  - also injuries happen during the season. Or young players break out and a perceived poor defense improves. It’s virtually impossible to know who’s going to still be a great defense in November, or who’s going to stay bad for many teams.

I agree with the end result. Spend cheap on 3-4 defenses and hope one busts out every week.

But chasing defenses based on SoS doesn’t seem like a winning formula to me. 

 
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Absolutely true - not disputing that part. Just saying an elite defense can shut down a potent offense. SoS is always a bit of a flawed analysis, IMO.

Also, we use SoS as a prediction - yet defenses gain and lose players, coaches,  - also injuries happen during the season. Or young players break out and a perceived poor defense improves. It’s virtually impossible to know who’s going to still be a great defense in November, or who’s going to stay bad for many teams.

I agree with the end result. Spend cheap on 3-4 defenses and hope one busts out every week.

But chasing defenses based on SoS doesn’t seem like a winning formula to me. 
While I agree an elite D can shut down a potent O, D scoring in this contest is quite a bit different than standard leagues.  Yardage allowed and points allowed do not matter at all.  As you said, SF really did a number on GB in the playoffs, but did you know SF finished as D15 in the contest?  SF was 4th in yardage given up, but their lack of INT's cost them.  Sacks and INT's are where most of the D scoring comes from in this contest, and both are directly related to the opposing QB.  I guess my use of the term SoS really should have been "opposing QB".

For the entire contest, GB gave up 55 fantasy points to opposing D's.  Why?  Because Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw lots of picks, and gets rid of the ball before getting sacked.  Through 16 weeks last year, he threw 4 INT's and was sacked 27 times.  On the other end of the spectrum, Joe Burrow led the league with 51 sacks, and was 5th in INT's with 14.  Opposing D's scored 106 fantasy points versus CIN.

Let's play a fun game.  I will name 2 QB's, and you tell me which one will give up more fantasy points in this contest scoring format.  But here's a twist - imagine the QB's play on the same team, and one of the guys plays the first 8 weeks, then the other guy plays the next 8 weeks.  Ready?  Jameis Winston and Tom Brady

 
Sacks and INT's are where most of the D scoring comes from in this contest, and both are directly related to the opposing QB.  I guess my use of the term SoS really should have been "opposing QB".
ok, that makes perfect sense and it’s a great point for sure. I’m 100% with you know that one. 

 
Actually, even though Hopkins was cut by WAS, he only missed week 7.  Sure, he changed his bye from week 7 to 9, but he finished the contest as K10, right between Tucker and Prater.  He is a perfect example of an underrated contest kicker.  WAS had no reason to cut him, and that's why LAC picked him right up.  He was K12 with WAS thru 6 weeks, and was K8 with LAC for the rest of the contest.  He is not a strong-legged kicker, with a career long of 56 through 7 seasons.  But he is accurate (top 20 all-time).  He enters 2022 as the Chargers top guy, and long-legged James McCourt as his competition.  IF Dustin is $3 and has beaten out McCourt (which I fully expect), he will be my first contest selection. 
Chargers K won’t be cheap imo

 
So, what (if anything) have you done or begun to do to prepare for the contest?  I am creating spreadsheets of all players at each position, broken down by bye week and expected price.  Typically the first thing I do when creating my team is hunt for 3 cheap kickers with differing byes, then I do the same for defenses.

 
So, what (if anything) have you done or begun to do to prepare for the contest?  I am creating spreadsheets of all players at each position, broken down by bye week and expected price.  Typically the first thing I do when creating my team is hunt for 3 cheap kickers with differing byes, then I do the same for defenses.
I have been doing some of the same although I have been keeping an eye on defensive schemes and player changes for team defenses. Both K and Def will really depend on pricing but I'll have an idea on who I want. 

Skill position players will really come down to pricing. Many of the values in one year are skyrockets the next year so have to keep an eye out for where the new values are. Of course also trying to avoid the pitfalls of the "training camp darlings/hype" that tends to cost a few roster spots when they fizzle out each year. **2021 Callaway and 2021 Edwards - I'm looking right at you.....go sit on the bench and think about what you did**

 
I have been doing some of the same although I have been keeping an eye on defensive schemes and player changes for team defenses. Both K and Def will really depend on pricing but I'll have an idea on who I want. 

Skill position players will really come down to pricing. Many of the values in one year are skyrockets the next year so have to keep an eye out for where the new values are. Of course also trying to avoid the pitfalls of the "training camp darlings/hype" that tends to cost a few roster spots when they fizzle out each year. **2021 Callaway and 2021 Edwards - I'm looking right at you.....go sit on the bench and think about what you did**
I already have a handful of DND's at K & D, based on pricing.  As for D's, the highest scoring one from the previous year hasn't been below $5 the following year in over a decade.  I have no doubt last year's darling D (Dallas for $2) will be too rich for my blood this year.  More fun stats about the previous year's top contest D...
2021 - PIT was the top dog in 2020, and were the most expensive at $7.  They finished D20
2020 - NE was the top dog in 2019, and sold for $5.  They finished D19
2019 - CHI was the top dog in 2018, and cost $10 ($2 more than any other).  They finished D24
2018 - JAX was the top dog in 2017, and cost $10 ($2 more than any other).  They finished D24
2017 - KC was the top dog in 2016, and sold for $7.  They finished D15

At K, I automatically cross off Butker and Tucker every year.  Sure, they are great kickers on good offenses, but I refuse to pay up for a kicker when I can get 2 (and sometimes even 3) K's for the same price.  To be worth that much, they basically have to finish at the top, while your guys get cut midseason.  I like to think I do enough research to steer clear of the K's on the hot seat.

 
This was my team last year.

QB - Justin Herbert 

QB - Joe Burrow 

RB - Antonio Gibson 

RB - Nick Chubb 

RB - James Robinson 

RB - Gus Edwards 

RB - Tony Pollard 

RB - Sony Michel 

RB - Rhamondre Stevenson 

WR - Cooper Kupp 

WR - Darnell Mooney 

WR - Corey Davis 

WR - Michael Pittman 

WR - Marquez Callaway 

WR - Nico Collins 

WR - Bryan Edwards 

TE - George Kittle 

TE - Mark Andrews 

TE - Gerald Everett 

PK - Daniel Carlson 

PK - Brandon McManus 

PK - Evan McPherson 

TD - Philadelphia Eagles 

TD - Cincinnati Bengals 

TD - Dallas Cowboys 

 
Regarding kickers, I take a pretty hard look at FG% from the prior two years.  Even if those guys get cut, they will surface somewhere else.
Very smart!  Dustin Hopkins was a perfect example last year.  I had no doubt he would be quickly scooped up, and I fully expect him to beat out the youngster McCourt in training.  Unless, of course, McCourt turns into the Garbage Picking Field Goal Kicking Philadelphia Phenomenon.

I also look at the reverse - those guys who held their jobs, but actually sucked.  Old-timers like Crosby and Succop.  If I had to roster one, it would be Crosby, but only because I think GB will give him a longer leash.

 
So, what (if anything) have you done or begun to do to prepare for the contest?  I am creating spreadsheets of all players at each position, broken down by bye week and expected price.  Typically the first thing I do when creating my team is hunt for 3 cheap kickers with differing byes, then I do the same for defenses.
You mean I should do more than just waiting until the contest hits the website and logging on to see how I can fit as many players into $250  by mixing and matching until the "money left" box equals $0 isn't a good way to go?

ETA:  I didn't know I needed spreadsheets & crap.  I better get started.

 
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You mean I should do more than just waiting until the contest hits the website and logging on to see how I can fit as many players into $250  by mixing and matching until the "money left" box equals $0 isn't a good way to go?

ETA:  I didn't know I needed spreadsheets & crap.  I better get started.
Ha. I’m like you. I do no special research on the side for this contest. Just common sense of trying to mix a few studs with as many players that seem to be “value” based on price vs. rankings, and yes, I use every single dollar to get to $0. 

 
Thought the fun begins after dollar values are assigned to each player. Y’all have your bye weeks covered, SOS calculated and odds Ryan Succop still has a job come December. I’m not worthy 

 
Thought the fun begins after dollar values are assigned to each player. Y’all have your bye weeks covered, SOS calculated and odds Ryan Succop still has a job come December. I’m not worthy 
Your worthiness depends on whether such odds making is remotely accurate (hint: it isn't).  😛

 
2021 contest fun facts
There were only 2 kickers for $6.  Justin Tucker finished K2 and Harrison Butker finished K13.  If you rostered both, you scored 199.8 points during the contest, with 27.9 points during the finals.
There were only 2 kickers for $2.  Evan McPherson finished K5 and Randy Bullock finished K15.  If you rostered both, you scored 202.4 points during the contest, with 37.3 points during the finals.

 

 
What is the expected release date for this year’s subscriber contest?
2021 contest opened on 4 Aug when kickoff was 9 Sep
2020 contest opened on 9 Aug when kickoff was 10 Sep
2019 contest opened on 1 Aug when kickoff was 5 Sep
2018 contest opened on 7 Aug when kickoff was 6 Sep
2017 contest opened on 1 Aug when kickoff was 7 Sep

2022 kickoff is 8 Sep, so I am guessing 1-8 Aug?

 
If I told you right now that every kicker offered in the 2022 contest would not lose their jobs, would you still select expensive ones?  Let's assume the breakdown of year's past:

2021 - 2 for $6, 5 for $5, 8 for $4, 16 for $3, 2 for $2
2020 - 2 for $6, 5 for $5, 8 for $4, 11 for $3, 6 for $2
2019 - 3 for $7, 5 for $6, 7 for $5, 11 for $4, 7 for $3

Would you choose from the $5 and higher bin?

 
If I told you right now that every kicker offered in the 2022 contest would not lose their jobs, would you still select expensive ones?  Let's assume the breakdown of year's past:

2021 - 2 for $6, 5 for $5, 8 for $4, 16 for $3, 2 for $2
2020 - 2 for $6, 5 for $5, 8 for $4, 11 for $3, 6 for $2
2019 - 3 for $7, 5 for $6, 7 for $5, 11 for $4, 7 for $3

Would you choose from the $5 and higher bin?
Nope from me - I'm going light on K's and D's to put money elsewhere. I will have 3 of each though....;)

 
Nope from me - I'm going light on K's and D's to put money elsewhere. I will have 3 of each though....;)
Same. Maybe just 2 Ds if I need a couple of bucks elsewhere to put me over the top to week 6 before I’m knocked out. 

 
Same. Maybe just 2 Ds if I need a couple of bucks elsewhere to put me over the top to week 6 before I’m knocked out. 
Yep.  As for the D's, I have started to try to figure out which teams will give up the most sacks.  CHI (58) & BAL (57) gave up the most last year.  They surrendered 220 FP between them.  The 2 least sacked teams gave up 139 FP.  So, which teams will be giving up the sacks this year?

 
Yep.  As for the D's, I have started to try to figure out which teams will give up the most sacks.  CHI (58) & BAL (57) gave up the most last year.  They surrendered 220 FP between them.  The 2 least sacked teams gave up 139 FP.  So, which teams will be giving up the sacks this year?
Please let me know when you’ve completed your research and I’ll roster them no questions asked. TIA ;)  

 
Same. Maybe just 2 Ds if I need a couple of bucks elsewhere to put me over the top to week 6 before I’m knocked out. 
I thought the same way last year and then having bupkiss for a final score from my 2 Team D's cost me a chance at finishing in the money the final week...lol! 

 
I thought the same way last year and then having bupkiss for a final score from my 2 Team D's cost me a chance at finishing in the money the final week...lol! 
Fair enough. I mean, it’s 80% luck though, so I’m not sure this kind of detail mattered. For example, that extra $2-$3 you decided to spend on a skill player instead of that 3rd D might’ve been the reason you made it to the semi-final week at all.
I don’t know though. I do zero research for this contest. I just tweak my lineup 20 times like everyone else and cross my fingers. 

 
Fair enough. I mean, it’s 80% luck though, so I’m not sure this kind of detail mattered. For example, that extra $2-$3 you decided to spend on a skill player instead of that 3rd D might’ve been the reason you made it to the semi-final week at all.
I don’t know though. I do zero research for this contest. I just tweak my lineup 20 times like everyone else and cross my fingers. 
There's your problem,you need to tweak at least 33 times and cross your fingers after each tweak.

 
Fair enough. I mean, it’s 80% luck though, so I’m not sure this kind of detail mattered. For example, that extra $2-$3 you decided to spend on a skill player instead of that 3rd D might’ve been the reason you made it to the semi-final week at all.
I don’t know though. I do zero research for this contest. I just tweak my lineup 20 times like everyone else and cross my fingers. 
20 times like everyone else? Do you mean per hour? That would be more like it.

 

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