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Cade Otton's point officially don't count (again) but I have a feeling that he might just be guy to save me down the road in this contest.
Worried about the injuries (as everyone is) but it is nice that my team has been pretty deep otherwise with (outside of the 2 cut kickers) only a couple true complete misses (and who knows maybe Zamir gets his time to shine). But never could have imagined that Pitts is basically the most useless of my 4 TEs.
-QG
 
After this week, I may just be a color commentator for the contest.

Well, you still have Andrews and Kelce left, so hopefully at least one of them has a big game. At the half, Andrews has you at 117.90. If Kelce has his average game, you hopefully make the cut. I am hoping that the folks who participate in this forum survive until the end.

If the second half is anything like the first, the cut line will hardly budge. Other than Andrews and Hurst, I don't see anyone scoring enough to push it very far.

I'm rooting for you, bud !

EDIT: @11:25pm, With the game just ended, I have you at 134.00, which will probably be about 6 or 7 points above the cut line, with Kelsey and Zamir left. You're probably in good shape. It will be interesting to see how much tonight's game moves the cut line, but my guess would be only 3 or 4 points.
 
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After this week, I may just be a color commentator for the contest.
Where you at? I'm probably good to week 7. Week 6 I lose Pierce and Waller. Everyone else loses Pierce too so I think I make it past 6. But 7 I lose Allen so I will be in deep dodo.
 
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124.50 goes to ???? I'm going to say 133.
I'll take the "under" on that bet. I think it might not go above 130. It will be interesting to see. Other than a couple players, (Andrews and Hurst) who were not owned by a huge number of teams, there were not any really big scorers.
 
I've been below the cut line all day. Though, Hurst has given me a chance. It depends on how much the cut line moves from tonight's game.

Tomorrow night I've got JuJu and Renfrow at -5,8 and -2.1.

The WRs used to be the shining stars of my squad, now they're doggin' it.
 
124.50 goes to ???? I'm going to say 133.
I'll take the "under" on that bet. I think it might not go above 130. It will be interesting to see. Other than a couple players, (Andrews and Hurst) who were not owned by a huge number of teams, there were not any really big scorers.

I like the way you think but am concern about.....

1079 with Lamar - Probably didn't invest much elsewhere

Tucker 668 - With all the kickers out he may have been replacing zeros.
 
Tucker counts with known out kickers (doesn't mean he is replacing a 0 in all of these cases):
Blankenship 164
Seibert 11
Butker 42
Elliot 13
Prater 16
So a maximum of 246 zeroes replaced. Now 80% survive, but let's be conservative and say that only 70% of these owners were already safely above the number and it mattered for 30%.
That's about 74 teams that get that big bump from Tucker. Not sure that moves the cut line all that much tbh.
-QG
 
FWIW up to 308 (really up to 307 because one of the teams is mine) have McPherson and one of those kickers (paired individually so the "true" number should be a little less). So those 6 points maybe matter for about 90 teams or so.
-QG
 
Maybe is isn't the case for most, but I'm below the cut line and my flex replacement score is Sutton at 12.4.
I'm just a tad above (134.00) with Sutton as my only WR in double digits
So you (TheWinz) are 2.55 above the cut line and your lowest flex is 2.10, so anything Kelce scores above that counts. I think if you get 10 out of Kelce, you're in, and you likely make it with even less. More is better of course, but considering that the Monday night cut line has moved only 5.95 points two weeks in a row. You are probably safe if Kelce puts up 10. Week 2 had two Monday night games and moved 20.10, and week 1 moved 12.20, but I don't think that will ever be repeated because in the very first week of the contest, there were likely a ton of totally illogical rosters that got flushed out.

Good luck tomorrow night!
 
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I've been below the cut line all day. Though, Hurst has given me a chance. It depends on how much the cut line moves from tonight's game.

Tomorrow night I've got JuJu and Renfrow at -5,8 and -2.1.

The WRs used to be the shining stars of my squad, now they're doggin' it.
Same... had 2 WRS flex in week 2, and Sun God's pedestrian 13.3 was still good as a WR flex in week 3... weeks 4 and 5 I've gotten 20 combined points from my WRs with of course no flexes. :crying:

Fortunately the rest of my squad is showing up to carry me forward through this WR lull (currently 177 with Kelce and Renfrow potentially contributing more tonight... season average ~174)

Biggest regret so far this season is taking Allen Robinson instead of Cooper Kupp to free up cash elsewhere.... IIRC the main counter-swap there was Edmonds for D Cook... or even just going thinner at WR with Kupp vs. Robinson + Renfrow, but the latter would have made for too scary of a week 7 with Allen, Cook, and Kupp on bye. I had managed to convince myself that some Kupp regression was inevitable this year.

Robinson isn't looking terrible on the field, still making some good catches, but the volume isn't there that you'd expect for a #2... can't tell how much of that is playcalling vs. QB rapport vs. just not generating enough separation, though I suspect it's a little bit of all of the above.
 
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Maybe is isn't the case for most, but I'm below the cut line and my flex replacement score is Sutton at 12.4.
I'm just a tad above (134.00) with Sutton as my only WR in double digits
So you (TheWinz) are 2.55 above the cut line and your lowest flex is 2.10, so anything Kelce scores above that counts. I think if you get 10 out of Kelce, you're in, and you likely make it with even less. More is better of course, but considering that the Monday night cut line has moved only 5.95 points two weeks in a row. You are probably safe if Kelce puts up 10. Week 2 had two Monday night games and moved 20.10, and week 1 moved 12.20, but I don't think that will ever be repeated because in the very first week of the contest, there were likely a ton of totally illogical rosters that got flushed out.

Good luck tomorrow night!

Unfortunately it doesn't work that way.

667 Kelce
195 Mahommes
572 CEH
460 MVS
1565 JuJu
355 Moore
291 Hardman
261 KC D

1928 Carr
242 Jacobs
830 White
423 Adams
1002 Renfrow
269 Waller
471 Carlson
92 LV D

7152 left right now so the average person has 1.2 bullets tonight.

The Monday cutline movement is based on three main things....

1. Final score of the game
2. Ownership percentage of the players playing (and their piece of #1)
3. The percentage of the pie the Monday players are or when they start counting (bye weeks increase this as well as injuries)
 
Currently sitting at 141.90, with Kelce, Juju and Renfrow left, and Darnell Mooney with 7.2 and Miles Sanders with 7.4 scores that could be replaced. Ertz has 13.8 at TE already. I've never played this before, what are my odds of surviving?
 
Factor holding the cutline down tongiht is that 531 Carr owners already have Cousins 26.2 posted.
208 with Jalen Hurts (30.05)
202 with Matt Ryan (10.65)
190 with Kenny Pickett (16.35)
180 with Russell Wilson (13.90)
160 with Jameis Winston (0.00)
156 with Lamar Jackson (19.5)
143 with Baker Mayfield (9.75)
138 with Trey Lance (0.00)
130 with Trevor Lawrence (15.2)
129 with Davis Mills (7.2)
114 with Josh Allen (48.4)
105 with Justin Fields (21.1)
103 with Tua Tagovailoa (0.00)
102 with Marcus Mariota (19.45)

These are the only others with at least 100 owners. I see lots of low scores here, but I didn't take the time to see if teams rostered 3 QB's.
 
Only 6 rosters have the Hurts/Cousins/Carr trio, so if my math is right, 733 of 1928 Carr owners already have at least 26.2
Only 3 rosters have the Allen/Cousins/Carr trio
 
Currently sitting at 141.90, with Kelce, Juju and Renfrow left, and Darnell Mooney with 7.2 and Miles Sanders with 7.4 scores that could be replaced. Ertz has 13.8 at TE already. I've never played this before, what are my odds of surviving?

Even if you come up empty tonight, you likely advance to week 6. The cut line is (imho) unlikely to move up an additional 10.45 points, which is what would need to happen to eliminate you if all your players put up zeros tonight.
 
Currently sitting at 141.90, with Kelce, Juju and Renfrow left, and Darnell Mooney with 7.2 and Miles Sanders with 7.4 scores that could be replaced. Ertz has 13.8 at TE already. I've never played this before, what are my odds of surviving?

Even if you come up empty tonight, you likely advance to week 6. The cut line is (imho) unlikely to move up an additional 10.45 points, which is what would need to happen to eliminate you if all your players put up zeros tonight.
Cool, thanks for the feedback. I just wasn't sure since there are still some fairly big players still to play tonight who aren't on my roster (Mahomes, Carr, CEH, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Waller).
 
I'm not tech savy on how the raw data on weekly player results is gathered for contest survival calcuations, that eventually gets posted as the weekly standings. But I'm wondering if there is any way to gather all the info on all player results (season to date) and show each NFL player's point total. I've always wondered if there might possibly be a way to see this and compare it to FBG's pre-season projections.

I'll bet this thought as crossed everyone's mind at one time or another.
 
Currently sitting at 141.90, with Kelce, Juju and Renfrow left, and Darnell Mooney with 7.2 and Miles Sanders with 7.4 scores that could be replaced. Ertz has 13.8 at TE already. I've never played this before, what are my odds of surviving?

Even if you come up empty tonight, you likely advance to week 6. The cut line is (imho) unlikely to move up an additional 10.45 points, which is what would need to happen to eliminate you if all your players put up zeros tonight.
Cool, thanks for the feedback. I just wasn't sure since there are still some fairly big players still to play tonight who aren't on my roster (Mahomes, Carr, CEH, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Waller).

What are your current "flex" scores? (I don't know your team name so I can't look up your team in the standings). If your current flex scores are fairly low, a decent score by anyone tonight that surpasses your current flex will raise your total. Of course, a bigger move of the cut line is possible if Mahomes or someone puts up something like 50 points. But I think the cut line moving more than about 10 is statistically unlikely. Right now only 195 live teams have Mahomes. 1928 live teams have Carr, but as TheWinz already pointed out, 531 of those teams also have Cousins, who has already put up 26.2.

So far on weeks with only one Monday night game, the cut line has moved 12.20 in week 1, 5.95 in week 3, and 5.95 in week 4. I think a repeat of week 1 is unlikey because that week flushed out a lot of lineups that were highly illogical, and that some of us were laughing about early on (like a guy with 11 kickers or a guy with a dozen QBs).

CORRECTION: I just discovered that in week 1, the Monday night cut line moved only 7.85, (NOT 12.20 as I previously posted in error just above). I had inadvertently compared the final cut to the "after 4pm games cut" when I posted a difference of 12.20. When I discovered this I actually went back to page 31 and found a post from texhunter at 10:44am on Sunday Sept 12 where he confirmed it by posting his team status showing the cut line. This is also further verified by subsequent posts by several others. So the most the Monday night cut line has moved for a single Monday night game this season is 7.85. (Sorry for the error)
 
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Currently sitting at 141.90, with Kelce, Juju and Renfrow left, and Darnell Mooney with 7.2 and Miles Sanders with 7.4 scores that could be replaced. Ertz has 13.8 at TE already. I've never played this before, what are my odds of surviving?

Even if you come up empty tonight, you likely advance to week 6. The cut line is (imho) unlikely to move up an additional 10.45 points, which is what would need to happen to eliminate you if all your players put up zeros tonight.
Cool, thanks for the feedback. I just wasn't sure since there are still some fairly big players still to play tonight who aren't on my roster (Mahomes, Carr, CEH, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Waller).

What are your current "flex" scores? (I don't know your team name so I can't look up your team in the standings). If your current flex scores are fairly low, a decent score by anyone tonight that surpasses your current flex will raise your total. Of course, a bigger move of the cut line is possible if Mahomes or someone puts up something like 50 points. But I think the cut line moving more than about 10 is statistically unlikely. Right now only 195 live teams have Mahomes. 1928 live teams have Carr, but as TheWinz already pointed out, 531 of those teams also have Cousins, who has already put up 26.2.

So far on weeks with only one Monday night game, the cut line has moved 12.20 in week 1, 5.95 in week 3, and 5.95 in week 4. I think a repeat of week 1 is unlikey because that week flushed out a lot of lineups that were highly illogical, and that some of us were laughing about early on (like a guy with 11 kickers or a guy with a dozen QBs).
This is me, so Miles Sanders and Darnell Mooney are probably the flex scores that could be replaced. Side note, is there a way to change my team name to something more fun, or am I stuck with the number?

Entry 108979​

These results are: extremely unofficial

This entry is still alive (as of the beginning of week 5)


Week 5​

QB Kirk Cousins - $1426.20
QB Jared Goff - $911.15
RB Travis Etienne - $2212.90
RB Breece Hall - $2126.70
RB Miles Sanders - $177.40
RB Dameon Pierce - $1018.80
RB Alexander Mattison - $95.50
WR Courtland Sutton - $1912.40
WR Darnell Mooney - $177.20
WR Hunter Renfrow - $150.00
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster - $150.00
WR Corey Davis - $75.80
WR Sammy Watkins - $40.00
TE Travis Kelce - $300.00
TE Zach Ertz - $1513.80
TE Mo Alie-Cox - $62.20
PK Greg Zuerlein - $38.40
PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $30.00
PK Graham Gano - $311.50
TD Washington Commanders - $45.00
TD Chicago Bears - $33.00
TD Seattle Seahawks - $35.00
TOTAL141.90
CUT LINE131.45
 
Side note, is there a way to change my team name to something more fun, or am I stuck with the number?


I'm not sure how to change your team name, but another guy (Saint) recently did it, so perhaps he can help you. He posted at 6:22am today so if you scroll back 16 posts from this one you'll see his post. You can try sending him a private message or replying to his post with your question. I recall that he had changed his team name to "Thursday" before the start of the season and when he tried to change it back, there was apparently a wait period involved. He was apparently finally able to get the change made. Good luck with that. If you get your team name changed, let us know.
 
Currently sitting at 141.90, with Kelce, Juju and Renfrow left, and Darnell Mooney with 7.2 and Miles Sanders with 7.4 scores that could be replaced. Ertz has 13.8 at TE already. I've never played this before, what are my odds of surviving?

Even if you come up empty tonight, you likely advance to week 6. The cut line is (imho) unlikely to move up an additional 10.45 points, which is what would need to happen to eliminate you if all your players put up zeros tonight.
Cool, thanks for the feedback. I just wasn't sure since there are still some fairly big players still to play tonight who aren't on my roster (Mahomes, Carr, CEH, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Waller).

What are your current "flex" scores? (I don't know your team name so I can't look up your team in the standings). If your current flex scores are fairly low, a decent score by anyone tonight that surpasses your current flex will raise your total. Of course, a bigger move of the cut line is possible if Mahomes or someone puts up something like 50 points. But I think the cut line moving more than about 10 is statistically unlikely. Right now only 195 live teams have Mahomes. 1928 live teams have Carr, but as TheWinz already pointed out, 531 of those teams also have Cousins, who has already put up 26.2.

So far on weeks with only one Monday night game, the cut line has moved 12.20 in week 1, 5.95 in week 3, and 5.95 in week 4. I think a repeat of week 1 is unlikey because that week flushed out a lot of lineups that were highly illogical, and that some of us were laughing about early on (like a guy with 11 kickers or a guy with a dozen QBs).
I would Take the opposite side of the argument. Those illogical rosters in week one or less likely to move the cut off than the smart money who would be more likely to be able to replace other stores who is better scores tonight
 
Currently sitting at 141.90, with Kelce, Juju and Renfrow left, and Darnell Mooney with 7.2 and Miles Sanders with 7.4 scores that could be replaced. Ertz has 13.8 at TE already. I've never played this before, what are my odds of surviving?

Even if you come up empty tonight, you likely advance to week 6. The cut line is (imho) unlikely to move up an additional 10.45 points, which is what would need to happen to eliminate you if all your players put up zeros tonight.
Cool, thanks for the feedback. I just wasn't sure since there are still some fairly big players still to play tonight who aren't on my roster (Mahomes, Carr, CEH, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Waller).

What are your current "flex" scores? (I don't know your team name so I can't look up your team in the standings). If your current flex scores are fairly low, a decent score by anyone tonight that surpasses your current flex will raise your total. Of course, a bigger move of the cut line is possible if Mahomes or someone puts up something like 50 points. But I think the cut line moving more than about 10 is statistically unlikely. Right now only 195 live teams have Mahomes. 1928 live teams have Carr, but as TheWinz already pointed out, 531 of those teams also have Cousins, who has already put up 26.2.

So far on weeks with only one Monday night game, the cut line has moved 12.20 in week 1, 5.95 in week 3, and 5.95 in week 4. I think a repeat of week 1 is unlikey because that week flushed out a lot of lineups that were highly illogical, and that some of us were laughing about early on (like a guy with 11 kickers or a guy with a dozen QBs).
I would Take the opposite side of the argument. Those illogical rosters in week one or less likely to move the cut off than the smart money who would be more likely to be able to replace other stores who is better scores tonight
Yeah, I was thinking about this and second guessing what I wrote. My original thought (probably) had it backwards. If the bottom fourth of the teams, for example, score nothing on Monday, it's the teams that had good lineups, but who were still below the cut line with only Monday left, that would likely move the cut line.

But when trying to guestimate the cut line movement tonight for example, note that in week 2, the two Monday night games moved the cut line 20.10. But in those two games, Josh Allen put up 40.85 and Jalen Hurts put up 39.35. So even with some really big scores, the cut moved about 10 points per game. Judging by that and by the line moving exactly 5.95 in both of the last two Monday nights, I think it would likely take some similar high player scores to shift the cut line more than 10 points. So my guess is Irelad is probably safe even if he adds only a point or two to his total. It will be interesting to see how much it moves.
 
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Looking at the first 20 out

1. Renfrow and MVS start counting at 1.7 and 5.5.

2. Renfrow counts after 6.7 and Carr after clearing Cousins. Here's an example with one kicker who score 1 point which likely will be his demise. Classic 3 QB conudrum. If Carr blows up and he survives then having 3 QBs was smart. If he's cut you can point to the cash spent on burrow as a 3rd QB.

3. Not improving tonight. What Luck...Taylor, Williams, Mitchell, Bateman....ouch

4. JuJu after 4.5 counts.

5. Done

6. Done. 3 QBs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D. Lots of junk rosters still around.

7. Done

8. Carr and Mahomes count after 9.75. This roster will move the cut line. Another 3 QB team, I think most of these teams have been.

9. Absolutely great team. Has Kelce, Renfrow, and CEH left. They won't count until they clear 11.40, 10.5, and 12.4. Being average doesn't cut it, they'll need someone to post a 20 pt night.

10. Kelce - 2. This team is moving the cut line numerous times tonight.

11. Done

12. JuJu - 5.6

13. Moore - 10.6. Non factor

14. Moore and CEH - 5.9 and 9.1

15. CEH - 7.4

16. Hardman - 12.1. Pitts and Knox eating donuts is rough.

17. JuJu - 5.4

18. Done

19. Done

20. Carr - 26.2 and JuJu - 2.2.

I'm a little bit more optimistic about the cut not moving double digits after looking at this. Small sample size.
 
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This guy is on the cut line.


Only two donuts for Blankenship and Lance. Drafted 4 QBs. Going to need Carr to eclipse #4 who posted 19.45. Even though that cheapie posted a great score, he would have had a better chance taking a 3rd kicker to improve on 3 pts locked in there. This highlights the problem with 3 to 4 QBs. It will really stand out in the finals.

Note if the 3-4 QBs are all cheapies then this really isn't an issue. It's more an issue of over allocating $'s to a position where you only post one score. As you see with the teams I looked at earlier, a lot of them will be replace RB scores with WRs scores or vice versa.
 

Lemme just ask - since Rodrigo was ranked around K10 by the staff near the contest deadline, why do you think he was $3?

maybe bc they knew the colts offense would be awful? maybe bc they made the prices before he was the clear starter? maybe he was supposed to be $8 but the guy typing the prices in made him $3 by mistake and has bad eyesight so he didnt notice bc the numbers look kinda similar and by the time anyone caught it the contest was live? who knows. it doesnt matter. theres tons of guys over and underpriced every single year.

the only thing that matters is that when the contest locked he was the best play.
 
85 Duverney (kicking my self as I took him almost everywhere but here)
can we talk about this even though its off topic?? in june i was grabbing tons of 18th round duvernay. then there was all of a sudden tons of chatter that the wr2 would end up being proche or wallace or that theyd bring in a julio/fuller/etc off the street. so i just stopped grabbing him for the last 2 months. now this kid looks like a star and none of their other passcatchers are doing anything at all. how did we get here??
 

Week 5​

QB Kirk Cousins - $1426.20
QB Derek Carr - $130.00
RB Saquon Barkley - $2618.10
RB A.J. Dillon - $203.40
RB Kareem Hunt - $1913.20
RB Rhamondre Stevenson - $1518.50
RB Dameon Pierce - $1018.80
RB Dontrell Hilliard - $510.30
WR Mike Williams - $2123.40
WR Gabe Davis - $1932.10
WR Courtland Sutton - $1912.40
WR Rashod Bateman - $160.00
WR Nico Collins - $1010.50
WR Josh Palmer - $65.40
TE Dawson Knox - $140.00
TE David Njoku - $917.80
PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $30.00
PK Kaimi Fairbairn - $311.10
TD Miami Dolphins - $42.00
TD San Francisco 49ers - $40.00
TOTAL181.20
CUT LINE99.65



I like my chances this week

holy crap this is a high variance rooster! love your rb strat too. (though i think one of those guys could have been swapped out for another TE)
 
Maybe is isn't the case for most, but I'm below the cut line and my flex replacement score is Sutton at 12.4.
I'm just a tad above (134.00) with Sutton as my only WR in double digits
I'm a tad below with one Chief and one Raider left.
Which Chief and which Raider, and when do they start counting?
MVS (5.40) and Carr (14.55). Given all the variables, it's looking like a scenario with 12.5 from MVS and 27 from Carr to comfortably advance. Just over 39 total. That's what I got last week from Kupp and Wilson and cleared the line by 9.55 pts.
 
85 Duverney (kicking my self as I took him almost everywhere but here)
can we talk about this even though its off topic?? in june i was grabbing tons of 18th round duvernay. then there was all of a sudden tons of chatter that the wr2 would end up being proche or wallace or that theyd bring in a julio/fuller/etc off the street. so i just stopped grabbing him for the last 2 months. now this kid looks like a star and none of their other passcatchers are doing anything at all. how did we get here??
I saw the same chatter. Here were the clues that should have told us to ignore it....

1. Batemam posted 46-515-1 last year in 12 games. Assuming the TDs can vary, it seem safe to think Duvernay would catch 50 passes this year in his role. That's 18th round best ball material.
2. He had some production last year as a WR3.
3. The Ravens spent a 3rd round pick on him two years ago. I'd assume they weren't going to cut bait. I also have to imagine it's hard for many to pick up on the Ravens system.
4. Lastly I kept reading that he was a special teams stud. Guys like that get rewarded with touches and stick on rosters.
 

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