Puppies
Footballguy
My bye week management attempts to spread 'player' bye weeks out in proportion to the percentage of NFL "team byes" for the corresponding weeks, while also bearing in mind the progressive nature of the cut week percentages this year. But I measure my bye week risks based on projected points for my players, rather than cap dollars, which I see as irrelevent in this context. (what matters here is what a player is likely to produce; not what he cost in cap dollars, and how many points you are likely to produce at each position, in order to survive). Starting with week 6, the percentage of NFL teams on bye are 12.5%, 12.5%, 6.25%, 18.75%, 12.5%, 12.5%, 6.25%, and 18.75%. My projected fantasy points sitting on the bench those same weeks are 21% 18.3%, 8.9%, 12.1%, 10.5%, 11.9%, 2.3%, and 15%. With the cut line increasing throughout the season, it made sense to me to try to front load my byes in the lowest cut percentage weeks as much as possible. So I'm overloaded in weeks 6 and 7, simply because I see those two weeks as the lowest risk, with only a 20% cut percentage. When it shifts to 30% and 40% cut percentage weeks, it's going to be far more critical to not have many players on the bench.
My team is a high risk in weeks 6 and 7, but I felt those two weeks were the most logical place to roll the dice. If I manage to survive past week 7, I feel my chances to surive improve until I get to week 14, where I have 4 players on bye, although all at different positions.
Sometimes you can set things up as logically as you think possible, yet still get clobbered by other factors. Injuries are probably the main one. Another one is a surprise showing by an underdog team in the early part of a game that results in the other team abandoning their game plan and going all out passing, for example. We will forever debate the merits of small roster vs large roster, as well as how many players we should roster at the given positions, but the truth is there are as many unknowns in this contest as there things we can try to calculate.
I feel fortunate to still be alive in the costest at this point, but I'm rowing against the current for at least the next two weeks.
Good luck to everyone for week 6!
My team is a high risk in weeks 6 and 7, but I felt those two weeks were the most logical place to roll the dice. If I manage to survive past week 7, I feel my chances to surive improve until I get to week 14, where I have 4 players on bye, although all at different positions.
Sometimes you can set things up as logically as you think possible, yet still get clobbered by other factors. Injuries are probably the main one. Another one is a surprise showing by an underdog team in the early part of a game that results in the other team abandoning their game plan and going all out passing, for example. We will forever debate the merits of small roster vs large roster, as well as how many players we should roster at the given positions, but the truth is there are as many unknowns in this contest as there things we can try to calculate.
I feel fortunate to still be alive in the costest at this point, but I'm rowing against the current for at least the next two weeks.
Good luck to everyone for week 6!
