2022 Rookie Rankings Post NFL draft - pick 2.04 (CLOSED) (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

Link to the previous poll:

2022 Rookie Rankings Post NFL draft - pick 2.02

Standard Scoring

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (78%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (79%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (32%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (36%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (52%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (48%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (59%)

1.08 WR Skyy Moore, KC (35%)

1.09 RB James Cook, BUF (26%)

1.10  WR Christian Watson, GB (33%)

1.11 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (27%)

1.12  WR George Pickens, PIT (33%)

2.01 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (33%)

2.02 RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (30%)

2.03 WR Alec Pierce, IND (30%)

PPR Scoring 

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (86%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (65%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (35%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (49%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (51%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (47%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (81%)

1.08 WR Skyy Moore, KC (63%)

1.09 RB James Cook, BUF (28%)

1.10  WR Christian Watson, GB (43%)

1.11 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (38%)

1.12 WR George Pickens, PIT (55%)

2.01 WR Alec Pierce, IND (31%)

2.02 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (28%)

2.03 RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (40%)

Superflex Scoring 

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (66%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (59%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (19%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (27%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (36%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (41%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (37%)

1.08 QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (35%)

1.09 WR Skyy Moore, KC (34%)

1.10 RB James Cook, BUF (37%)

1.11 WR Christian Watson, GB (29%)

1.12 WR George Pickens, PIT (24%)

2.01 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (37%)

2.02 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (14%) 

2.03 WR Alec Pierce, IND (18%)

TE Premium Scoring 

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (74%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (57%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (31%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (31%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (41%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (38%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (58%)

1.08 WR Skyy Moore, KC (40%)

1.09 RB James Cook, BUF (24%)

1.10 WR Christian Watson, GB (29%)

1.11 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (18%)

1.12 WR George Pickens, PIT (33%)

2.01 TE Trey McBride, ARZ (22%)

2.02 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (20%)

2.03 WR Alec Pierce, IND (26%)

 

[TripItUp]

McBride

McBride

McBride

Rachaad White

 

[Faust]

Rookies under consideration for being added to the polls soon:

RB Hassan Haskins

RB Keaontay Ingram

RB Kyren Williams

RB Jerome Ford

RB Tyler Badie

RB Pierre Strong Jr.

WR Calvin Austin III

WR Romeo Doubs

WR Justyn Ross

WR Danny Gray

WR Velus Jones Jr.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Following up from the end of the last thread, as someone that isn't scheduled to draft until the end of the 3rd, I appreciate that we've run it through this far.   I'm hoping we can at least complete the 2nd, but hoping for another round beyond that if @Faust isn't sick to death of it by then.

I really don't think there's any consensus rookie ranking that I would trust more than the one coming from 30+ members of the Shark Pool in June.  I see no issue reducing the vote count (maybe after 2.6?) if getting to 50 has become a slow trickle.  Even if the vote distribution at 2.11 becomes a 4-3-3-3-3-3-3-2...., I still see value in knowing who got the 4th vote at that spot.

 

[nirad3]

I'm going White here except in Superflex where I'd likely stab at Willis.  Just too much upside there in that format.

 

[Faust]

Following up from the end of the last thread, as someone that isn't scheduled to draft until the end of the 3rd, I appreciate that we've run it through this far.   I'm hoping we can at least complete the 2nd, but hoping for another round beyond that if @Faust isn't sick to death of it by then.

I really don't think there's any consensus rookie ranking that I would trust more than the one coming from 30+ members of the Shark Pool in June.  I see no issue reducing the vote count (maybe after 2.6?) if getting to 50 has become a slow trickle.  Even if the vote distribution at 2.11 becomes a 4-3-3-3-3-3-3-2...., I still see value in knowing who got the 4th vote at that spot.

I will try to keep this going until the end of the second round - depending on how the voting pattern continues. We are quickly approaching the point where I will need to close these polls with fewer than 50 votes.

 

[Faust]

Keep those votes coming in.

 

[Faust]

I’d like to get this one to the 45 to 50 votes before closing it.

 

[bostonfred]

I don't get Rachaad White over Allgeier. I may be proven wrong later but this seems like the obvious pick especially in non ppr

 

[rockaction]

I don't get Rachaad White over Allgeier. I may be proven wrong later but this seems like the obvious pick especially in non ppr

I think it's because people have seen the draft capital story time and again. Nobody wants a guy that's very easily replaced in a year. Just doesn't sit well to have an asset crater in value right in front of your eyes, like Michael Carter. 2023 is a ballyhooed class. Then again, Spiller is 2.02 and 2.03, so...everyone's mileage is varying. 

 

[menobrown]

I don't get Rachaad White over Allgeier.

Lol, I think I found the vote.

 

[bostonfred]

I think it's because people have seen the draft capital story time and again. Nobody wants a guy that's very easily replaced in a year. Just doesn't sit well to have an asset crater in value right in front of your eyes, like Michael Carter. 2023 is a ballyhooed class. Then again, Spiller is 2.02 and 2.03, so...everyone's mileage is varying. 

Draft capital is bull####. Pp

Rachaad White was drafted in the late third.  The Jets drafted Michael Carter in the early fourth. Do you think for one minute that it mattered to the Jets that technically they spent a day three pick on Carter and not day two?  Yes, Allgeier was drafted in the fifth. So was Aaron Jones. 

If you want to make the case that Carter in the early 4th is somehow more replaceable than white in the late third, though, I'll be happy to sift through data with you. 

I think subjective analysis of draft purpose is more predictive of success than objective analysis of draft capital

Rachaad White was not drafted to start.  Full stop. If you think there's a chance he starts over Fournette, I'm all ears.  Otherwise, let's agree he was drafted to be a backup, and maybe have a role as a pass catcher.  Like Gio last year.  Who is still on the team.  

Allgeier has a direct path to carries.  Not just backup rb carries, but legitimate starting rb carries.  They were asked why they drafted him and they said watch the game where he ran the ball out in the 4th quarter of a close game - he is everything we want.  Which fits with them having Cordarelle and... nothing.  

Could the Falcons trade for someone better?  Technically, yes. But have you ever seen it happen?  A team with a questionable qb, after rookie camps, while talking favorably about their rookie, trades for a guy?   The closest i can come up with is Ronald Jones - when they brought in Fournette- who is in front of Rachaad. 

Maybe a free agent?   Do you see anyone as good as 30 year old Jerick Mckinnon out there?   Oh wait he's already signed as the rb3 somewhere.

Why would a rebuilding team like the Falcons even invest heavily at rb this year... or next?   

But even then, assuming Allgeier only gets an audition in 2022, and is immediately at risk of being replaced... what does Rachaad have?   Maybe an audition in 2024 when Fournette is gone and Brady is retired?  Unless the bucs replace him before he even gets a chance?   

I get that people think Rachaad White is more talented than Allgeier but this idea that Allgeier will automatically be replaced by a team with so many more needs than just running back, while White just needs to wait for his chance because they'd never replace him..  it's just painfully lazy. Third round good, fifth round bad.  Ok. I'm willing to bet on those odds.  

 

[bostonfred]

Lol, I think I found the vote.

Looking at the alternatives... yeah.  I'll take the guy with a chance to start right away, over the guys who are buried on the depth chart.  I don't see a tier drop in talent between any of these running backs, I see a great fit and a starting opportunity for Allgeier, and I see guys like White, white, Robinson and Davis-Price as similar talents in worse situations.  Bell?  Reminds me of Hollywood. Not marquise brown, i mean Rashard Higgins.  Caught everything in college, looked great, terrible speed.  You can have him.  

Draft capital is a crutch.

 

[rockaction]

Draft capital is bull####

There isn't one objective look at the data that suggests this is true. I've done this in numerous threads, so I don't feel like hunting it down again, but players' FF performances are skewed to the first two or three rounds. If you want number-based drafting (like #97 vs. #143 or something like that) FF Astronauts did a good study with a corresponding chart on that if you want to hunt it down and chase the numbers. 

I'm not saying anything that isn't borne out by data. Draft capital isn't a crutch at all. The reason we use draft capital is so that we know what the teams themselves are thinking. If volume and usage are determinative of FF points (they are) then we want the teams with the most on the line when we draft guys 2.03 or 2.04 in our rookie draft second rounds. I get that you want to use an ad hoc or case-by-case basis, and that's fine, but sweeping generalizations like this one are hyperbole at best, and untrue and misleading at worst. (Note that I'm thinking you're at your best here and not being ignorant or misleading.)

I get the case-by-case thing. I picked Isaiah Spiller at 2.02 this year and deviated from draft capital concerns because I thought he was legitimately hurt at the combine and that's why he fell so far. So draft capital isn't the end-all-be-all. But as a generalized guide that is used in conjunction with testing and performance in college, it's a helpful tool. 

 

[rockaction]

Rachaad White was not drafted to start.  Full stop. If you think there's a chance he starts over Fournette, I'm all ears.  Otherwise, let's agree he was drafted to be a backup, and maybe have a role as a pass catcher.  Like Gio last year.  Who is still on the team.  

This is a legitimate concern with White. Is he buried on the depth chart? If you think he is, that's a legitimate reason to knock him down a peg. I know that there are formulas where guys try to incorporate competition on the depth chart into a workable and quantifiable thing. This is because most guys never see a second contract and you want to assess the likelihood of volume, which is the key component of fantasy points. A guy I follow on Twitter named Zach David and the aforementioned FF Astronauts do just that. They're always interesting reads. Zach David usually publishes his for free while FF Astronauts are behind a paywall. 

 

[bostonfred]

There isn't one objective look at the data that suggests this is true. I've done this in numerous threads, so I don't feel like hunting it down again, but players' FF performances are skewed to the first two or three rounds. If you want number-based drafting (like #97 vs. #143 or something like that) FF Astronauts did a good study with a corresponding chart on that if you want to hunt it down and chase the numbers. 

Yes this specifically is the bull####. 

There was a recent study showing how something like 40 percent of third round picks at rb had an rb2 season or better. GREAT!

And fifth round picks had only a 20 percent chance at the same.  TERRIBLE!

And they treated guys like Paul Perkins and Aaron Jones the same as Cameron Artis-payne, all fifth round picks.  Because they were being objective! 

But it's that exact objectivity that's the flaw in the studies. Cameron Artis-payne was pretty obviously drafted as a backup.  That's totally subjective, and will be argued by people who use draft capital as a proxy for future opportunity. But it was pretty obvious at the time.  

Sometimes subjective opportunity misses badly - like Paul Perkins.  Sometimes third round picks miss badly. Trey Sermon was drafted in the early third last year and Kene Nwangu, Rhamondre were early fourth roundn picks. Carter was the "hit" and he had immediate opportunity but was replaced.  Would you prefer the other guys?   

In 2020, the third round rbs were Keyshawn Vaughn, Lynn Biwden, Zach Moss and Darrynton Evans.  

Which was more useful as a projector of success - draft capital, or opportunity?   

 

[rockaction]

Which was more useful as a projector of success - draft capital, or opportunity? 

I'm not denying opportunity is a factor. Check my last post. But it can't be used in a vacuum, and usually goes along with draft capital, testing, and college performance. They're all elements in the equation. 

Besides, I didn't really come to plant my flag for draft capital as the end-all-be-all of things. That's why I brought up Spiller and Zach David, FF Astronauts, and opportunity grades. 

It would be a straw man to say that I'm using draft capital alone and then rebut that. I'm clearly not saying that. You prefer a slower, less elusive back to a faster, more elusive back with more draft capital because this year seems golden for the slower, lower draft capital back. You may very well get proven right in this instance. I say caveat emptor, and we'll see if the data catch up to you or if you're ahead of the game on this one.  

I liked Allgeier before everyone was down on him and he tested lousy. The film and highlights looked good. But the real film grinders like Waldman don't care for him, and neither do the testing numbers. His college performance at BYU was really good, according to raw numbers and Football Outsiders' advanced BACKstat (or whatever they call it) numbers, so that's something on his side. 

And there you have it in a nutshell. 

 

[menobrown]

Draft capital is a crutch.

I was just making a joke because you are only person to vote for him in a few categories.

No idea why you are saying this to me about draft capital, never brought it up.

 

[TripItUp]

I don't get Rachaad White over Allgeier. I may be proven wrong later but this seems like the obvious pick especially in non ppr

Here is the argument since I voted for White.

1. White profiles better as a 3 down back and 3 down backs are more likely to become fantasy relevant
   
2. Allgeier profiles as a JAG
   
3. Bucks have top fantasy RBs
   
4. Falcons have not recently had top fantasy RBs
   

Higher floor is certainly Allgeier but White clearly has the higher ceiling, particularly in PPR.  I watched both quite a bit in college.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think subjective analysis of draft purpose is more predictive of success than objective analysis of draft capital

I like this statement although I don't think I can agree with it.

I guess it depends on what you mean by predictive.

You can use the objective data to quantify a players chances of being relevant for FF that you can't really do with subjective analysis. 

Reading the tea leaves and making informed guesses as to what the teams purpose for drafting a player is useful I think, but it can also be wrong. I mean you string a whole bunch of fluff stories together and really know what the teams thoughts are on the player and their intent to use him?

I think the hard data is the draft capital the team invested in the player says a bit more about their intent than the coach speak does.

Its good to consider every angle and not just one data point. That is why I like your statement. It isn't just draft capital that we can look at here. We can look at how the player fits their team and what the other competition for opportunity is as well.

I do think the opportunity for Allgeier is better than the Whites however watching him I really wasn't impressed. I think Damien WIlliams is a better RB than him and might be the player being overlooked there.

Thats not to say that I was impressed with the Whites either. I am not voting for any of these guys right now when there is a 1st round QB still available for me to vote for instead.

 

[bostonfred]

Reading the tea leaves and making informed guesses as to what the teams purpose for drafting a player is useful I think, but it can also be wrong. I mean you string a whole bunch of fluff stories together and really know what the teams thoughts are on the player and their intent to use him?

Yes it can definitely be wrong.  But i think we have a lot of data points to work with.  

Coach speak is when coaches say that their players are good.  That's worthless.  The part that isn't worthless is when they talk about the kind of player he is, what he's good at and how they see him being used.  There's no reason to talk up a fifth round draft pick as a guy who can close out football games and play every down if you're not considering him for those jobs.  You might be right that he's a JAG, but that's different. They're telling us he has an opportunity.  You're talking about how well you think he will play when he gets the opportunity.  

The depth chart is telling us the same story.  Cordarelle projects better as a third down style back.  They didn't give him more carries when Davis was sucking, and when they did give him more carries, he sucked too.  He really gave a half season performance as a failed wide receiver who converted to running back and he's 30.  

I know you like Damien Williams here but come on.  He's 30 too. His career high in carries was in 2019 with 111. Second most was 50.  He missed all of 2020 and got signed to a one year deal as a backup rb last year and released... by the bears. 

And then there's Allgeier's skill set.  If i remember correctly you had questions about his hips and ability to cut without putting his off hand down for balance. I won't argue that.  He's a downhill guy and had ridiculous yards after contact in college. He's got good vision. He's not a juker.  We'll see whether that translates to the NFL, but it definitely translates to the role that the coaches have talked about and that appears to be available.  First and second down runner who can pass block pretty well and catch the ball on dump offs and screens.  

All of those things tell me he's got an opportunity to be the starter right away.   

Here is the argument since I voted for White.

1. White profiles better as a 3 down back and 3 down backs are more likely to become fantasy relevant
   
2. Allgeier profiles as a JAG
   
3. Bucks have top fantasy RBs
   
4. Falcons have not recently had top fantasy RBs
   

Higher floor is certainly Allgeier but White clearly has the higher ceiling, particularly in PPR.  I watched both quite a bit in college.

This is definitely valid but the number of guys drafted as backup rbs who never get a chance to start absolutely dwarfs the guys who are drafted as understudies and become great.   If we're playing the odds on "third round draft capital is statistically more productive than fifth", then the odds of guys drafted into that backup/ understudy role should also be taken into account and while it's subjective, history tells us those are not good odds.  

But if it's a question of the small chance at high upside vs the high chance at less upside, you should also consider that there's a chance at high upside with Allgeier, too.  He caught the ball well on the routes he ran.  Maybe he's capable of doing more than what he was asked in college.  It happens all the time.  It's not like he's got star players in front of him - if he shows out he will go as far as his talent can take him.  That's not true for White - he could play great and still be stuck as the backup to fournette.  Ask Mattison, Pollard, Kareem Hunt, etc.  All of those guys have a three down skillset too and they're the guys who actually played well behind established starters. 

 

[bostonfred]

I know I'm coming across as the world's biggest Allgeier honk but this is something that comes up every year.  I think we talk a lot about parsing out the Darwin Thompsons from the Antonio Gibsons, or the James Cooks from the Allgeiers (and yes i prefer Cook) but I'm interested in getting better at separating tier two guys in general, not just this year.  Allgeier and White are just examples. 

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Not a fan of Allgeier or Ra White in the top half of the 2nd round.   Currently have White at 2.8 on my board and Allgeier at 2.11 in my 0.5 PPR 1QB.   However, this has been steered largely by Waldman not being a fan of Ra White, so it's not like this is based on hours of film study on my part.  Basically, I'm out on both RBs for where I have them ranked.  I get the impression that Waldman is more intrigued by Allgeier, but I don't think he has planted any flag on him either (haven't seen the RSP).  However, I sometimes feel the need to prioritize NFL opinion above Waldman and this is one of those situations where the difference in draft capital is enough for me to keep White ahead of Allgeier.  Agree with the higher ceiling on White if it somehow pans out, but the Bucs whiff on Vaughn is part of the equation.   Ultimately, it seems like a 2023 or 2024 RB pushing these guys aside seems like the most likely outcome.

The same can probably be said for Zamir White, but I actually like his chances of being the guy in 2023 a little bit more.   I also have Brian Robinson and Ty Davis-Price ahead of both, but it's fluid.

I'm taking a shot at David Bell ahead of both and maybe even Wan'dale, who I have just behind White.   If the Gallup recovery is on the slower side, I might put Tolbert ahead of Allgeier.

 

[Faust]

I just wanted to say that I appreciate all of the debate and points that are being discussed in this topic because this is what makes the Shark Pool great, especially when we are keeping the discussion on a respectful level.

Thanks to @TripItUp @sushinsky4tsar @nirad3 @bostonfred @rockaction @Biabreakableand all others who add insights to these polls.

 

[Biabreakable]

Another aspect of evaluating the team fit is considering the teams offensive line which for the Falcons it's not good. Perhaps this is why they want a RB who can bring his own blocking and gain yards after contact like Allgier, and maybe that speaks to his opportunity.

That said it's going to be more challenging with sub par offensive line for him to get a run way and build momentum than it would be with other teams with better blocking. 

Also they have MM at QB so this is going to make things more difficult for him than it would be for teams with better QB play. The defenses can cheat vs the run more as less risk of being beat by pass. Although MM is a rushing threat and perhaps some RPO will help.

As far as Damien Williams goes the Bears have 3 good RB so them cutting him does not reflect on his ability to be a factor in my view. He played very well for KC the last time he had opportunity. He is also a excellent blocker and I do see him earning a role, maybe a more significant role than people think. Now maybe age has caught up with him but I see him as a better RB. He was in line for a larger role in KC before he opted out due to Covid.

 

[Biabreakable]

I wanted to add that the Bucs and Raiders have better offensive line play than the Falcons do and good supporting pieces that make the fit there better in the short to long term. For the Bucs this includes their defense as well. Even if this is Bradys last season they still have a lot of other key supporting players  I think the Falcons have a lot of needs and in a longer term build situation.

I think when looking at opportunity based evaluation you should look at all of these factors and from that perspective I think the Whites are in better situations for RB success than the Falcons.

 

[Faust]

Closed