2022 Rookie Rankings Post NFL draft - pick 2.05 (CLOSED) (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

Link to the previous poll:

2022 Rookie Rankings Post NFL draft - pick 2.04

Standard Scoring

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (78%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (79%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (32%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (36%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (52%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (48%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (59%)

1.08 WR Skyy Moore, KC (35%)

1.09 RB James Cook, BUF (26%)

1.10  WR Christian Watson, GB (33%)

1.11 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (27%)

1.12  WR George Pickens, PIT (33%)

2.01 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (33%)

2.02 RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (30%)

2.03 WR Alec Pierce, IND (30%)

2.04 RB Rachaad White, TB (30%)

PPR Scoring 

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (86%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (65%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (35%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (49%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (51%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (47%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (81%)

1.08 WR Skyy Moore, KC (63%)

1.09 RB James Cook, BUF (28%)

1.10  WR Christian Watson, GB (43%)

1.11 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (38%)

1.12 WR George Pickens, PIT (55%)

2.01 WR Alec Pierce, IND (31%)

2.02 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (28%)

2.03 RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (40%)

2.04 RB Rachaad White, TB (34%)

Superflex Scoring 

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (66%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (59%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (19%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (27%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (36%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (41%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (37%)

1.08 QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (35%)

1.09 WR Skyy Moore, KC (34%)

1.10 RB James Cook, BUF (37%)

1.11 WR Christian Watson, GB (29%)

1.12 WR George Pickens, PIT (24%)

2.01 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (37%)

2.02 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (14%) 

2.03 WR Alec Pierce, IND (18%)

2.04 RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (23%)

TE Premium Scoring 

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (74%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (57%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (31%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (31%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (41%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (38%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (58%)

1.08 WR Skyy Moore, KC (40%)

1.09 RB James Cook, BUF (24%)

1.10 WR Christian Watson, GB (29%)

1.11 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (18%)

1.12 WR George Pickens, PIT (33%)

2.01 TE Trey McBride, ARZ (22%)

2.02 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (20%)

2.03 WR Alec Pierce, IND (26%)

2.04 RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (28%)

 

[Faust]

Keep those votes coming in.

 

[Biabreakable]

In regards to discussion about supporting cast of the Falcons from previous poll and how that might affect Allgieirs opportunity, I do wonder if Ridder might actually be an answer.

I have read some good things about him and if he ends up being good that would change my perspective about the quality of the situation.

I realize he was a latter pick and so the odds against him being a starting QB. However maybe the NFL was wrong and he ends up being a quality starter.

I still maintain the opinion that the Falcons offensive line is bad and that Mariota is bad.

 

[TripItUp]

McBride

McBride

R. White

R. White

 

[TripItUp]

I still maintain the opinion that the Falcons offensive line is bad and that Mariota is bad.

Ex O linemen Ross Tucker made a comment this week on his podcast that despite Atlanta spending a lot of draft capital on O line, they are still bad.

I would argue that Mariota could be serviceable, but "bad" is certainly in-play as well.

 

[Biabreakable]

Ex O linemen Ross Tucker made a comment this week on his podcast that despite Atlanta spending a lot of draft capital on O line, they are still bad.

I would argue that Mariota could be serviceable, but "bad" is certainly in-play as well.

Isn't serviceable just a nice way of saying bad? Serviceable in a pinch.

The QBs do seem to improve when they get older. Tannehill was bad then improved with a new team. There are likely other examples of this as well. So I wouldn't say it's impossible. It's not my expectation though.

I'm more open to Ridder possibly being good than MM at this point but he is a rookie and so that's not great 

This is all in the context of the short term which is what we are looking at in regards to Algeiers opportunity. 

 

[bostonfred]

Isn't serviceable just a nice way of saying bad? Serviceable in a pinch.

The QBs do seem to improve when they get older. Tannehill was bad then improved with a new team. There are likely other examples of this as well. So I wouldn't say it's impossible. It's not my expectation though.

I'm more open to Ridder possibly being good than MM at this point but he is a rookie and so that's not great 

This is all in the context of the short term which is what we are looking at in regards to Algeiers opportunity. 

Mariotta has enough speed to threaten the run but doesn't vulture touchdowns. 

He doesn't throw many interceptions.  

He used DeMarco Murray a lot as a receiver

Arthur Smith's coached mariotta and also coached the Titans running game and they were successful despite never having a top offensive line 

It's hard to judge whether he made his running backs better because Murray and Henry were both excellent but I don't think he stood in their way.  

Teams won't be stacking the box to stop Allgeier.  They'll be a little more worried about the top ten picks running routes against them.  

When you're looking for negatives you can always find them.  When you're looking for positives there's some there too.

 

[Biabreakable]

Mariotta has enough speed to threaten the run but doesn't vulture touchdowns. 

He doesn't throw many interceptions.  

He used DeMarco Murray a lot as a receiver

Arthur Smith's coached mariotta and also coached the Titans running game and they were successful despite never having a top offensive line 

It's hard to judge whether he made his running backs better because Murray and Henry were both excellent but I don't think he stood in their way.  

Teams won't be stacking the box to stop Allgeier.  They'll be a little more worried about the top ten picks running routes against them.  

When you're looking for negatives you can always find them.  When you're looking for positives there's some there too.

I agree.

I am trying to look at all sides of this even though my opinion leads me to think it's not a great fit.

Your previous post intrigued me and so trying to talk through it as you said you wanted to get better at evaluating these mid tier RB. 

When your making a decision based on opportunity rather than talent I think evaluating the fit is a important part of that.

 

[bostonfred]

Since we're talking about Tyler Allgeier's talent and calling him slow because of his 4.60 40, I thought I'd look up those first 10 yards to see if he lacks long speed or acceleration. 

Some noteworthy 10 yard splits

1.55 Cordarelle Patterson

1.59 tyler allgeier

1.59 devonta freeman

1.60 Ezekiel Elliott 

1.61 Derrick Henry 

1.61 Damien Harris 

1.67 Rhamondre Stevenson 

 

[bostonfred]

That's pretty much exactly what you see on tape.  He has good vision and understands defenses and has good burst through the hole but he's not a burner and won't break 40 yard runs.  

 

[Faust]

Happy Father’s Day to the dads here in the Shark Pool.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I'm surprised by 9-1 Willis / Ridder in SF.   I'm not quite to the point where I'm pulling the trigger on the next QB in SF yet, but figured that voting would be pretty tight.   I think I lean slightly to Ridder as the better bet to stick and see action in 2022.  I do get the upside play on Willis, just surprised by the margin.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm surprised by 9-1 Willis / Ridder in SF.   I'm not quite to the point where I'm pulling the trigger on the next QB in SF yet, but figured that voting would be pretty tight.   I think I lean slightly to Ridder as the better bet to stick and see action in 2022.  I do get the upside play on Willis, just surprised by the margin.

Although Willis is my vote I think it's closer than the votes indicate as well and Ridder is likely my next vote in all formats.

Ridder does have better weapons to work with and less competition to win the starting job.

 

[Faust]

Voting is really starting to slow down on these polls. I would like to get this one into the 40 to 45 votes cast before closing it.

 

[bostonfred]

I'm willing to bet most of the people voting for David Bell (and wandale) in standard don't play standard.  There's just zero chance that all these rbs are sitting there and the whole league keeps passing on them for wrs. 

In my actual standard dynasty drafted this year, 4 running backs went in the top 5 overall including cook and Pierce. The rb-needy owner at pick 3 had two more first round picks including 1.7 and ended up getting receivers at all 3. 

I got Skyy Moore at pick 13, Tyler Allgeier at pick 18, and Jahan Dotson at pick 21 after trying to trade up to get him for some time. 

This is an experienced league that's been around ~20 years with mostly original owners.  

 

[Faust]

@bostonfred Jahan Dotson at pick 21 is very good value.

 

[bostonfred]

@bostonfred Jahan Dotson at pick 21 is very good value.

Thanks.  And absolutely.  FWIW I'm not saying this is where he would go today - he's had nothing but good news around him since the NFL draft which is when we drafted, and people mostly saw him as a reach by Washington and one of the many dime a dozen receivers.  Pierce and Bell went even later.  Spiller, Robinson, Zamir, Rachaad all went early.

That's just how standard drafts go.  I traded Brandin Cooks, my 23 2nd and 3rd for the picks that netted me Allgeier, Dotson, Jelani, Snoop and Velus. I'm very happy with that return.  Some people wouldn't be.  With such wide opinions on players at different positions it was the wild west this year in fantasy drafts and i feel like peer pressure is building a false consensus that doesn't really exist in the real world.  

 

[Biabreakable]

Interesting comments Fred and perhaps you are right about people voting for Bell in the standard poll being influenced by PPR.

I'm not sure.

It's a small sample size of votes and the votes are split between Algeier and White at RB.

Meanwhile there has been positive buzz recently about Bell.

This is dynasty so recent chatter shouldn't matter, but I do think it influences us.

I do like Bell. He impressed me in games I watched of him a couple years ago starting with me first noticing him in a game he played vs the Gophers. I think he is a good player.

Part of this may be influenced by Watson being able to boost the Browns passing game although his availability is a big question.

While standard leagues have been more RB focused for a long time the NFL is changing, has been changing for a long time now. It's become more of a passing league than in the past and RB value has diminished compared to what it once was. So I am less surprised by this than you seem to be, although I have made comments in previous polls being somewhat bothered or dubious of the seemingly WR centric leaning of voters.

As you say this draft is different, I think there is more unknown from this class than I am used to from previous ones.

Your league is an even smaller sample size and more specific to that group of fantasy players.

Also the timing as you mention has a effect on people's choices about these things.

If the votes for RB were not so split then maybe it would be closer to one of them to the votes for Bell right now and if we had another 20 or more votes perhaps Bells slight lead wouldn't last. Hard to say. It is what it is right now.

I kind of don't think any of them are special enough to vote for over the QBs right now even considering typical start one QB leagues.

 

[Catbird]

I think standard leagues differ dramatically in scoring systems and in lineup options. These factors work with enhanced passing and increased RB job sharing to de-value RBs. A couple of my long term standard leagues are clearly moving way from their former RB heavy reliance, although another seems to not be moving in that direction at all.

 

[rockaction]

I went with an RB, but it was Brian Robinson. That's a pure Waldman pick. He was in the top five of the RBs Waldman evaluated. 

 

[Faust]

I should have time later today to post the next poll.

 

[bostonfred]

While standard leagues have been more RB focused for a long time the NFL is changing, has been changing for a long time now. It's become more of a passing league than in the past and RB value has diminished compared to what it once was. So I am less surprised by this than you seem to be, although I have made comments in previous polls being somewhat bothered or dubious of the seemingly WR centric leaning of voters.

I think a lot of that has to do with league format not just scoring format.  

If you have to start 2 rbs 3 wrs and a flex then the 36th wr is a weekly starter, and the 48th wr is a viable flex play or a reasonable injury replacement or bye week fill in.  Even in standard, that makes guys like Bell more valuable than a league where you only have to start two receivers.  

I don't see Bell as a 1200/8 guy.   I might be wrong but i think his ceiling is lower than that.  And that makes him serviceable depth and a career fantasy backup.  If you think he's got the potential to be a wr2 or better then have at it, but for me, I see Bell as a dime a dozen replacement level player. 

I get that you don't see the high upside with Allgeier. I think that's debatable.  Talent is what gets you the opportunity.  After that, it's a combination of the scheme, o line, opposing defenses and all kinds of other stuff.  Ask James Robinson owners if it's possible to have a rb1 season with mediocre pedigree.  Or Chris Carson.  Etc. 

Even without the upside, it's still generally wise to load up on running backs because even if you can only start 2 running backs, the combination of injuries and predictability make rbs super important. Case in point, I won a league with Penny in my starting lineup last year against the guy with Amon Ra.  

You know you're not likely to survive the season with just two healthy rbs all year.  You know that unless you have incredible luck, you're going to need to spot start guys based on match-ups at some point.

And you know that if your rb has an unexpected good year his value will spike. A running back who just gets a few good weeks of rb2 production is worth a lot more at the trade deadline than a receiver who gets a few good weeks of wr2 production.  

It's interesting to see zamir enter the discussion.  I think people are going off recent comments by McDaniels, and completely forgetting that McDaniels is McDaniels. 

 

[Faust]

The Superflex Scoring poll is currently tied, so perhaps a few more votes can help break the tie.

 

[Faust]

I am hoping for that one extra vote today that breaks the tie in the Superflex poll. The alternative is that I will publish a run-off poll to break the tie.

 

[bostonfred]

I am hoping for that one extra vote today that breaks the tie in the Superflex poll. The alternative is that I will publish a run-off poll to break the tie.

I'll change my vote to willis so you can move on

 

[Faust]

I'll change my vote to willis so you can move on

I am making a ruling here and allowing this vote switch.

This poll is closed.