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2023 Buffalo Bills - Get Right (1 Viewer)

Interesting couple of picks. I was actually hoping the Bills would take Mike Morris, who went right after their pick. I don't necessarily want them going DL, but I think Morris is phenomenal value this late.
 
GroveDiesel said:
According to Albert Breer, the Bills passed up an offer to trade down from 27 to 41 for the Titans’ 3rd and likely a late 2023 or mid 2024 pick.

So basically (hat tip to Joe Buscaglia), the Bills valued Kincaid more than the 41, 72, 130 + one more pick.

That’s 2 players in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year they gave up to not move back plus one additional pick that could have even been a 3rd or 4th next year.

If Kincaid isn’t a true difference maker, then that is a huge blunder by Beane.
Click to expand...
Everybody always says "He was the last guy with a first round grade left on our board," but in Kincaid's case that's 100% credible. Some folks did have him as one of a fairly small number of blue-chip prospects. He did slide a little bit in the draft. There were no other obvious choices sitting there at WR, OT, or LB. It's extremely easy to believe that the Bills saw him as a qualitatively better option than anybody left. No issues tossing in a 4th if that's what it takes to get a first-rounder instead of a second-rounder.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
GroveDiesel said:
According to Albert Breer, the Bills passed up an offer to trade down from 27 to 41 for the Titans’ 3rd and likely a late 2023 or mid 2024 pick.

So basically (hat tip to Joe Buscaglia), the Bills valued Kincaid more than the 41, 72, 130 + one more pick.

That’s 2 players in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year they gave up to not move back plus one additional pick that could have even been a 3rd or 4th next year.

If Kincaid isn’t a true difference maker, then that is a huge blunder by Beane.
Click to expand...
Everybody always says "He was the last guy with a first round grade left on our board," but in Kincaid's case that's 100% credible. Some folks did have him as one of a fairly small number of blue-chip prospects. He did slide a little bit in the draft. There were no other obvious choices sitting there at WR, OT, or LB. It's extremely easy to believe that the Bills saw him as a qualitatively better option than anybody left. No issues tossing in a 4th if that's what it takes to get a first-rounder instead of a second-rounder.
Click to expand...
But is he better than a 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and 4th rounder as far as value?

I really do like Kincaid and think he can be a difference maker (assuming Dorsey can take a HUGE leap forward), but they gave up a LOT for him. They’d better be right.

If Dorsey can’t figure out how to use the weapons he has, he should be gone after this year and Beane should legitimately be on the hot seat. The Bills can’t afford to waste years of Josh’s career.
 
The Bills absolutely need a short passing game to get over the hump, if Kincaid gives them that it is a difference maker.

I am very curious what they are thinking at MLB. They have two rookies who didn’t get much time last year, drafted a guy who seems more suited to OLB and brought back Klein.

They must have a good feeling about one of them?
 
I think I saw Simpson from Clemson went right before us in the 3rd. I believe he would’ve been the pick had he lasted just a little more
 
GroveDiesel said:
IvanKaramazov said:
GroveDiesel said:
According to Albert Breer, the Bills passed up an offer to trade down from 27 to 41 for the Titans’ 3rd and likely a late 2023 or mid 2024 pick.

So basically (hat tip to Joe Buscaglia), the Bills valued Kincaid more than the 41, 72, 130 + one more pick.

That’s 2 players in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year they gave up to not move back plus one additional pick that could have even been a 3rd or 4th next year.

If Kincaid isn’t a true difference maker, then that is a huge blunder by Beane.
Click to expand...
Everybody always says "He was the last guy with a first round grade left on our board," but in Kincaid's case that's 100% credible. Some folks did have him as one of a fairly small number of blue-chip prospects. He did slide a little bit in the draft. There were no other obvious choices sitting there at WR, OT, or LB. It's extremely easy to believe that the Bills saw him as a qualitatively better option than anybody left. No issues tossing in a 4th if that's what it takes to get a first-rounder instead of a second-rounder.
Click to expand...
But is he better than a 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and 4th rounder as far as value?
Click to expand...
Yes. If he lives up to first-round "big slot" status, that's better than an assortment of 2/3/4 picks. This team is missing a big target with great hands who gives Allen a safety blanket. It shouldn't take much imagination to see why that might be impactful than another James Cook and Terrell Bernard.

This team has a ton of decent starters. It is missing star power. I don't claim to be any sort of expert on Kincaid, but it sounds like he was a clear notch above the other players who would have been available at 27. I am good with taking the guy who might be a difference-maker over guys who are simply going to fill out the roster.
 
It's pretty easy to believe that Kincaid will be a better slot player than either McKenzie was or the late career Cole Beasley. He was frequently remarked as being the best pass catcher in the draft - not just among TE's but among all players. If that pans out then he should be putting up 100 catch seasons at times in his career (although probably not as a rookie). Even though he is below-average as a blocking tight end, again, just by virtue of being bigger, he should outperform our previous slot receivers in that role.

So if we keep rolling out 11 personnel and call him WR3, that should make our run game a lot more effective on those times we do run out of 11 personnel. If it's fourth and one he's probably not going to line up as the second TE, but on second and 8 he should be a big time addition.
 
themeistersinger said:
It's pretty easy to believe that Kincaid will be a better slot player than either McKenzie was or the late career Cole Beasley. He was frequently remarked as being the best pass catcher in the draft - not just among TE's but among all players. If that pans out then he should be putting up 100 catch seasons at times in his career (although probably not as a rookie). Even though he is below-average as a blocking tight end, again, just by virtue of being bigger, he should outperform our previous slot receivers in that role.

So if we keep rolling out 11 personnel and call him WR3, that should make our run game a lot more effective on those times we do run out of 11 personnel. If it's fourth and one he's probably not going to line up as the second TE, but on second and 8 he should be a big time addition.
Click to expand...
You would think "big man with elite hands" would also be a prime red zone target. We haven't had a guy like that on the roster for as long as I can recall -- Knox comes closest right now, but he's not really the kind of guy you think of when you think of weapons near the end zone. Considering how much Allen already stresses defenses inside the 20, one would hope that we can figure out a way to turn Kincaid into a threat.
 
They say TE’s can take the longest to transition to the NFL. And seeing McDermott’s hesitancy to use rookies, are we not likely to see a lot of Kincaid this year?
 
Mr. Peterson said:
They say TE’s can take the longest to transition to the NFL. And seeing McDermott’s hesitancy to use rookies, are we not likely to see a lot of Kincaid this year?
Click to expand...
That is very much a concern for us. That said, part of the difficulty with TEs taking time to transition is that they need to learn/study/practice route trees, and blocking schemes. It's very likely Knox will get the majority of the traditional TE alignments, while Kincaid is treated as more of a pure WR out of the gates, as he works into more of the TE role.
 
GroveDiesel said:
According to Albert Breer, the Bills passed up an offer to trade down from 27 to 41 for the Titans’ 3rd and likely a late 2023 or mid 2024 pick.

So basically (hat tip to Joe Buscaglia), the Bills valued Kincaid more than the 41, 72, 130 + one more pick.

That’s 2 players in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year they gave up to not move back plus one additional pick that could have even been a 3rd or 4th next year.

If Kincaid isn’t a true difference maker, then that is a huge blunder by Beane.
Click to expand...
if you don't trust Beane's judgment in picking the players, what good does it do to give him more picks to waste?
does he get a gold star if Kincaid turns out to be Travis Kelce 2.0?
 
Mr. Peterson said:
They say TE’s can take the longest to transition to the NFL. And seeing McDermott’s hesitancy to use rookies, are we not likely to see a lot of Kincaid this year?
Click to expand...
much easier to use him as the slot receiver, and bring him along slowly, if need be, with the other TE functions

why would a midget slot guy that everyone raved about, be able to start immediately, if Kincaid can not?
 
Obie Wan said:
GroveDiesel said:
According to Albert Breer, the Bills passed up an offer to trade down from 27 to 41 for the Titans’ 3rd and likely a late 2023 or mid 2024 pick.

So basically (hat tip to Joe Buscaglia), the Bills valued Kincaid more than the 41, 72, 130 + one more pick.

That’s 2 players in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year they gave up to not move back plus one additional pick that could have even been a 3rd or 4th next year.

If Kincaid isn’t a true difference maker, then that is a huge blunder by Beane.
Click to expand...
if you don't trust Beane's judgment in picking the players, what good does it do to give him more picks to waste?
does he get a gold star if Kincaid turns out to be Travis Kelce 2.0?
Click to expand...
I don’t really trust any GM to consistently make good picks. The data is pretty clear that success in the draft is pretty random and luck plays a huge part. There really aren’t consistently good drafters and there are more missed picks than success picks. So much like the lottery, the best way to increase your chances of winning are to have more tickets.

Obviously it’s not quite as simple as that as clearly higher picks in the draft have higher success rates than lower picks in the draft. But, IMO, the value of extra picks and the chance they give you to obtain cheap talent that may far outperform their rookie contract when you’re paying a QB $$$$$ needs to factor into the equation.
 
GroveDiesel said:
...when you’re paying a QB $$$$$...
Click to expand...

That's another things that's so beautiful. Allen is already down to 8th on the Highest-Paid-QBs list. Burrow, Herbert, and Lawrence will be passing him, soon, too. You'd have to think we've got another 4 years or so before talks of another extension.
 
On one hand, this raises the possibility that Hopkins might sign with the Bills.

On the other hand, this raises the possibility that Hopkins might sign with the Chiefs.
 
GroveDiesel said:
Big day for Bills fans. Hopkins gets released and looks like Josh Allen is dating Hailey Steinfeld.
Click to expand...
Sounds silly. But I don’t think this is a “good” thing. After the breakup he was all about how focused he is…. And now he’s chasing a Hollywood girl. Gonna get wrapped up in tabloids and gossip.
 
According to OTC, the Oliver extension should have saved about $7.7 Mil on this year's cap.

Getting closer to affording Hopkins, no?
 
Meh. That’s a lot of money for a guy who, IMO, has not played up to his draft position at all. He flashes, but he is not a difference maker in any phase of the game.
 
GroveDiesel said:
Meh. That’s a lot of money for a guy who, IMO, has not played up to his draft position at all. He flashes, but he is not a difference maker in any phase of the game.
Click to expand...
Yeah, not saying I love the extension. I'm with you.

But does it make enough room to create the best receiving group in the NFL?
 
Grigs Allmoon said:
GroveDiesel said:
Meh. That’s a lot of money for a guy who, IMO, has not played up to his draft position at all. He flashes, but he is not a difference maker in any phase of the game.
Click to expand...
Yeah, not saying I love the extension. I'm with you.

But does it make enough room to create the best receiving group in the NFL?
Click to expand...
I read that Hopkins wants a similar contract to OBJ. No thanks. Buffalo currently had about $1.5M left. Around $9M if the Oliver contract freed up $7M. So they’d still need another $6M+ to free up still. He’s not worth that IMO.
 
GroveDiesel said:
He’s not worth that IMO.
Click to expand...

No. He's not, but it seems like that is what every other team thinks, too.

So, if the market is willing to pay way less than Hopkins' asking price, he's going to have to come down.

Also, why extend Oliver if this wasn't a move to free cap for Hopkins? It seems like a pointless extension if they aren't looking to free cap space this year, no?
 
GroveDiesel said:
Meh. That’s a lot of money for a guy who, IMO, has not played up to his draft position at all. He flashes, but he is not a difference maker in any phase of the game.
Click to expand...
Oliver might be the most genuinely disappointing (so far) player the Bills have ever drafted. I didn't expect anything but failure from EJ Manuel or Aaron Maybin, so I can't really say those guys were disappointments. I thought Oliver would be a genuine force in the interior DL. I never expected Aaron Donald, but I did expect much more consistent pressure. And like you said, you can see real talent from Oliver from time to time -- it's there. It's just not there often enough to be relied upon.

Also, Oliver seems like a genuinely cool guy, which makes me want to root for him. I really wish he could somehow flip that switch.
 
Grigs Allmoon said:
GroveDiesel said:
He’s not worth that IMO.
Click to expand...

No. He's not, but it seems like that is what every other team thinks, too.

So, if the market is willing to pay way less than Hopkins' asking price, he's going to have to come down.

Also, why extend Oliver if this wasn't a move to free cap for Hopkins? It seems like a pointless extension if they aren't looking to free cap space this year, no?
Click to expand...
The most logical possibility is because they wanted to keep Oliver around a few more years, no? I don't love him or the extension, but if they waited and he had a decent season his price tag very likely would have increased next offseason.

Cap space rolls over, so if they don't spend it this year it'll simply get added to next year.
 
I'm supposed to be happy about the Bills signing Leonard Floyd, and instead all I can think about is how many more resources do we have to put into this DL before it works?
 
Mr. Peterson said:
Steve Tasker said:
IvanKaramazov said:
I'm supposed to be happy about the Bills signing Leonard Floyd, and instead all I can think about is how many more resources do we have to put into this DL before it works?
Click to expand...
Seems to me like they've finally acknowledged Epenesa and Basham are busts. Can't help but feel that draft failures will doom this team, in the long-term.
Click to expand...
I’m worried about Elam as well
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Toss in Cody Ford and that's four 1st/2nd rounders.

All teams whiff on draft picks from time to time, and I don't think you can fault a team for missing on a Zach Moss or Vosean Joseph. But I do kind of wonder how this Bills regime compares to other teams around the league when it comes to the the first two rounds, where you really expect to be drafting starters. Sometimes it feels like we give our FO too much credit for Tre and Josh while overlooking a series of really bad picks, but I don't really know whether we're any worse than the median team here.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
Mr. Peterson said:
Steve Tasker said:
IvanKaramazov said:
I'm supposed to be happy about the Bills signing Leonard Floyd, and instead all I can think about is how many more resources do we have to put into this DL before it works?
Click to expand...
Seems to me like they've finally acknowledged Epenesa and Basham are busts. Can't help but feel that draft failures will doom this team, in the long-term.
Click to expand...
I’m worried about Elam as well
Click to expand...
Toss in Cody Ford and that's four 1st/2nd rounders.

All teams whiff on draft picks from time to time, and I don't think you can fault a team for missing on a Zach Moss or Vosean Joseph. But I do kind of wonder how this Bills regime compares to other teams around the league when it comes to the the first two rounds, where you really expect to be drafting starters. Sometimes it feels like we give our FO too much credit for Tre and Josh while overlooking a series of really bad picks, but I don't really know whether we're any worse than the median team here.
Click to expand...
Didn’t Tre and Milano come in the draft before Beanne got here?
Plus there’s no doubt we got lucky with Allen. Imagine he’s just average... We wouldn’t be where we are without him becoming a star. McBeanne has built a nice roster, but we would not be where we are without Allen becoming a super star.
 
You guys signed Leonard Floyd to a one-year deal, I hear. He's a pretty good pass rusher that the Bills will probably use situationally and effectively. Good signing.
 
GroveDiesel said:
Funny, Bills sign Leonard Floyd and Allen gets put on the cover of Madden and not a single Bills fan chimes in. :missing:
Click to expand...
I'm nearly indifferent on the Floyd signing. Hopefully he will help here and there, but who knows. I look at it as a solid depth move, I guess.

Allen on the cover... Certainly cool. Love the 12th man interaction.

My 7YO (has been playing Madden for a couple years now): liked it, but is certainly too young to fully appreciate it.

My 10YO: couldn't care less

Me: Hoping the curse doesn't come back from the dead
 
F Diggs. I knew he was going to be a problem from the moment we traded for him. McDermott was able to keep him quiet for a couple seasons but you knew he was still this way.
I’m not that worried. But big time annoyed. We just made him 2nd highest paid wr. Focal point of Josh Allen’s high octane offense. We give him big stats for his ego. Bills are contenders for the ‘ship. What the heck else does he want?
 
Mr. Peterson said:
F Diggs. I knew he was going to be a problem from the moment we traded for him. McDermott was able to keep him quiet for a couple seasons but you knew he was still this way.
I’m not that worried. But big time annoyed. We just made him 2nd highest paid wr. Focal point of Josh Allen’s high octane offense. We give him big stats for his ego. Bills are contenders for the ‘ship. What the heck else does he want?
Click to expand...
His agent is now saying that Diggs is there and “will be there for the entirety of minicamp”.

Lol, chaos.
 
I'm gonna reserve judgement on Diggs. Not happy with this, but his teammates seem to be supporting him 100%, so there may be something going on here that we don't know about. I've seen some speculation on Twitter that he's unhappy with the way he's used in the offense, and frankly I think he has a good point if that's what he's mad about.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
I'm gonna reserve judgement on Diggs. Not happy with this, but his teammates seem to be supporting him 100%, so there may be something going on here that we don't know about. I've seen some speculation on Twitter that he's unhappy with the way he's used in the offense, and frankly I think he has a good point if that's what he's mad about.
Click to expand...
Unhappy with his usage or unhappy with Dorsey in general? I think that’s the question. It’s a problem regardless and I don’t think he’ll be happy this year as long as Dorsey is the OC IMO.
 
GroveDiesel said:
IvanKaramazov said:
I'm gonna reserve judgement on Diggs. Not happy with this, but his teammates seem to be supporting him 100%, so there may be something going on here that we don't know about. I've seen some speculation on Twitter that he's unhappy with the way he's used in the offense, and frankly I think he has a good point if that's what he's mad about.
Click to expand...
Unhappy with his usage or unhappy with Dorsey in general? I think that’s the question. It’s a problem regardless and I don’t think he’ll be happy this year as long as Dorsey is the OC IMO.
Click to expand...
No idea, but I do think it's weird that there seems to be a division here between the players and coaches. That's new for me.
 
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