ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I think there is a distinct possibility that McDermott has taken the Bills as far as he can.
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2023 Buffalo Bills (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
Yep, been saying it for years. Maybe the most frustrating part of it to me is that it's one of the easiest things to improve on due to the devaluation of the RB position. There are several FA's this season that can probably be had for not much more money than say Nyheim Hines who could actually contribute on offense.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Unfortunately I think you may be right. McDermott was absolutely the right guy to take over this team after Rex Ryan, and you can't deny that he's turned around the locker room. But "culture" only gets you so far.
It's a combination of a lot of little things that are starting to make me worry that we've seen McDermott's ceiling. Stuff like (a) poor communication/decision-making during 13 seconds; (b) a slight over-emphasis on character vs. talent; (c) lack of innovation on offense; (d) needing a bazillion draft picks in the D-line to run your defensive scheme correctly; (e) unwillingness to play the rookies you drafted. All of this just adds up to a team that doesn't really have a killer instinct. They're a bit of a soft team, like the Dungy-era Colts.
Edit: Obviously I want McDermott back. He is not on the hot seat, and he shouldn't be. I'm just saying that if you asked me before the season if McDermott had what it took to get this team to a SB, I would have been about 85%-90% confident that the answer is "yes." Now I'm only like 60% or so confident in that answer. It's not obvious.
Boston
Footballguy
Funny you mentioned the Colts...when I was watching that game yesterday all I could think of was the Pats/Colts from that era...Cincy just had a toughness/edge to them like the Pats did back then and while the Bills scare the hell out of you like the Colts did it just felt like something was missing.
derek245583
Footballguy
Sean Payton wants a QB.....
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Not a Bills fan, but I think one of the most fascinating subplots of the offseason will be how much retooling Buffalo decides it needs to make it to the next level. The past two offseasons, it was possible to entertain the thought that they were right there. But the second half of this season -- and yesterday in particular -- exposed them as still far away.
No one's paying me to be a GM, and I have no idea what they need to do to get over the hump. But it seems to be clearly more than tinkering at the edges.
No one's paying me to be a GM, and I have no idea what they need to do to get over the hump. But it seems to be clearly more than tinkering at the edges.
For a team that dominates offensively and defensively each of the last 3 regular seasons they have a TON of holes. It really is incredible. No running game, no weapons besides Diggs, shaky Oline, a defense that gives up tons of big plays.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
On today's Athletic Football Show, Robert Mays was reading off their draft picks since they took Allen. Here's the list. Guys like Singletary, Davis, Rosseau, Cook. No major busts, but no home runs, either.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Its weird, they looked literally unstoppable after two games and we’re only 11 points away from an undefeated regular season. 8 game winning streak. To go out like that totally surprised me.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Yep. I've been saying all year that our drafts just haven't been very good the past few seasons. Not awful or anything, but not good.
I mean, Boogie Basham and EJ Epenesa aren't exactly Aaron Maybin-type busts, mainly because they were 2nd round picks instead of 1st rounders. But neither guy is actually any good. Guys like Singletary and Davis are fine considering where they were drafted. In fact, I think the Bills have done a pretty good of landing role players and solid contributors in the middle and late rounds of the draft. They just haven't gotten proper value at the top of the draft, and that foregone talent showed up toward the end of this season.
Some of this is just slightly unlucky. For example, Ed Oliver hasn't been as impactful as we would like, but he was very highly rated coming out of college and the Bills were extremely "fortunate" to have him fall to them in 2019. (Oliver is another one of those players who's a solid B at this point in his career, but we really needed an A with that pick). Cody Ford was widely mocked to the Bills as a first round pick -- we got him in the 2nd thinking it was highway robbery. Stuff like that.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I want to add here that I'm not just overreacting to yesterday's game. The team that showed up after the bye was a totally different team than the one that steamrolled everybody earlier in the season. Some of that was Allen being banged up for a few games, but something was off for most of this year. And then there's the draft stuff, which we've been talking about for a while.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
As a Bengals fan wanted to thank you guys for being top notch and I hope you stick around the top of conference because it is fun to compete with you (even if the NFL would just as soon have both our markets nowhere near the top).
My Bengals had it all going yesterday but I know it takes nothing but the best to compete with you guys.
The convo here got me curious about the anticipatory lines and they are actually posted up on Fan Duel.
In no particular order:
PHI -1 vs KC
PHI -1.5 vs CIN
KC -1.5 vs SF
SF - 1 vs CIN
-QG
My Bengals had it all going yesterday but I know it takes nothing but the best to compete with you guys.
The convo here got me curious about the anticipatory lines and they are actually posted up on Fan Duel.
In no particular order:
PHI -1 vs KC
PHI -1.5 vs CIN
KC -1.5 vs SF
SF - 1 vs CIN
-QG
The Duff Man
Footballguy
This was mentioned on WGR and I had the same thought watching the game.
Did the Bills have the wrong cleats for the footing? It is hard to understand getting badly beaten on both lines and I saw the Bills slip a lot.
I had the thought in stadium as I saw several times during the TV times outs the Bills were doing something with their cleats. Sideline crew came on the field and threw a disk on the ground and the players were rubbing their cleats on them.
It looked odd, and I didn’t see the Bengals doing anything. Just horrendous if it had even a little bit of impact.
Did the Bills have the wrong cleats for the footing? It is hard to understand getting badly beaten on both lines and I saw the Bills slip a lot.
I had the thought in stadium as I saw several times during the TV times outs the Bills were doing something with their cleats. Sideline crew came on the field and threw a disk on the ground and the players were rubbing their cleats on them.
It looked odd, and I didn’t see the Bengals doing anything. Just horrendous if it had even a little bit of impact.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I can't believe this is still being talked about on Tuesday.I think Buffalo should have educated CIN that all future playoff games have their tickets sold in advance and the potential Atlanta game wasn’t an outlier.
Guess what Zac, tickets were sold for the AFCC game in KC weeks ago, the same for the AFCC game in Buffalo, and yes, tickets were sold for the game AFCC in Atlanta, too. That's just how it works. Nothing unusual about that part of this story.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Right now, it feels like half my Twitter feed is Bills influencers whining about the "pregame ticket sales" non-story, Bills influencers whining about Eli Apple, and Bills influencers whining about an insane conspiracy theory involving Damar Hamlin. I like hearing these guys talk about football, but my goodness does the stupidity kick in hard once football is over.I can't believe this is still being talked about on Tuesday.I think Buffalo should have educated CIN that all future playoff games have their tickets sold in advance and the potential Atlanta game wasn’t an outlier.
Guess what Zac, tickets were sold for the AFCC game in KC weeks ago, the same for the AFCC game in Buffalo, and yes, tickets were sold for the game AFCC in Atlanta, too. That's just how it works. Nothing unusual about that part of this story.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I just heard a bit about this. WTF is this world (Read: country) coming to?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Yeah, Apple is a tool, but if you don’t want a guy talking trash, you can’t get beat like that. Hope the players store that up and take it out on the Bengals next year if they meet up.Right now, it feels like half my Twitter feed is Bills influencers whining about the "pregame ticket sales" non-story, Bills influencers whining about Eli Apple, and Bills influencers whining about an insane conspiracy theory involving Damar Hamlin. I like hearing these guys talk about football, but my goodness does the stupidity kick in hard once football is over.I can't believe this is still being talked about on Tuesday.I think Buffalo should have educated CIN that all future playoff games have their tickets sold in advance and the potential Atlanta game wasn’t an outlier.
Guess what Zac, tickets were sold for the AFCC game in KC weeks ago, the same for the AFCC game in Buffalo, and yes, tickets were sold for the game AFCC in Atlanta, too. That's just how it works. Nothing unusual about that part of this story.
Most of the Bills Twitter follows for me though aren’t really getting into that stuff. Gotta stick with YPP, JoeB, and the Cover1 guys. Most of the talk there is focused on the coaching staff and the O-lines and D-lines which is right where it should be IMO.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Truthfully, I don't think many of the national pundits realize just how many holes Josh Allen has covered for the Bills in the past few years. I'm seeing a lot of chatter about how Burrow has surpassed Allen, and while it's a fair take and certainly arguable, I'm not sure that those who don't watch every single Bills game realize how much the guy does. He and to a lesser extent Diggs are the entire offense. The OL is below average, other receiving options are average at best (I'd argue below average), and there's no threat of a running game. The offensive coaching staff is a giant question mark too.
There's no question he wasn't at his best on Sunday, but I think a large reason people are stunned at how badly the Bills lost is because whether or not they realize it, they're used to Josh Allen just putting the entire team on his back to win the game. Sunday's result is what happens when your superstar has an average game and needs someone else to carry some of the load - the Bills don't have the playmakers on either side of the ball to win you that game. But during a regular season game, you're not always going up against a team like the Bengals. They're a one man team right now. That one man is an amazing player, one of the greats, but they're still a one man team.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
true.theres also a distict possibility that McDermott isn't a great coach afterall and buffalo needs to move on. They miss Daboll , plain and simple. Josh Allen is not as good as advertized. he's kind of ordinary.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
This is shtick, right?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Watching this AFC Championship game is pretty disheartening. For all the talent the Bills have on D, and all the money spent there, both of these teams are playing better playoff defence than what Buffalo has the last few years.
I hope we move on and try a new approach at DC.
I hope we move on and try a new approach at DC.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
The amount of pressure the Chiefs put on Burrows compared to what Buffalo generated is a huge huge red flag and deserves an entire questioning of both personnel, scheme, and coaching related to the defensive line and coaching staff.
In unrelated news, with the Bengals having to pay Burrows potentially $50M+ a year now, how many people will now say their window is closing due to his contract, and how much will that accelerate when they also have to pay Higgins and then Chase? Asking for a friend.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Kurt Warner has a good breakdown of the offense on the final game and he highlights a reason for the poor performance.
Inability to handle pressure.
He runs through a half dozen plays where the Bengals being an extra guy and the Bills don’t really have an answer. Some is scheme and coaching.
But in several cases Josh just didn’t take an easier throw for smaller yards and was looking for something bigger.
The Bills need to get way way better at short throws, including screens. When they aren’t executing those, or even attempting them, it gets much easier to defend and also puts more pressure on the line to hold up.
Building in more throws of “less than 2 seconds” like other teams successfully use, and adding a reliable slot receiver largely fixes the offense.
Inability to handle pressure.
He runs through a half dozen plays where the Bengals being an extra guy and the Bills don’t really have an answer. Some is scheme and coaching.
But in several cases Josh just didn’t take an easier throw for smaller yards and was looking for something bigger.
The Bills need to get way way better at short throws, including screens. When they aren’t executing those, or even attempting them, it gets much easier to defend and also puts more pressure on the line to hold up.
Building in more throws of “less than 2 seconds” like other teams successfully use, and adding a reliable slot receiver largely fixes the offense.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Unfortunately, no.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Just read an article on how many ufa’s we have. Beanne is going to have to work some serious magic this off-season.
Who do we keep and who do we just let walk?
Who do we keep and who do we just let walk?
- G Ike Boettger
- WR Jamison Crowder
- LB Tyrel Dodson (RFA)
- ILB Tremaine Edmunds
- G Bobby Hart
- CB Dane Jackson (RFA)
- S Jaquan Johnson
- RB Taiwan Jones
- QB Case Keenum
- OLB A.J. Klein
- WR Jake Kumerow
- DE Shaq Lawson
- CB Cam Lewis
- SS Dean Marlowe
- P Sam Martin
- ILB Tyler Matakevich
- T Justin Murray
- DE Jordan Phillips
- FS Jordan Poyer
- OT David Quessenberry
- G Rodger Saffold
- RB Devin Singletary
- TE Tommy Sweeney
- G Greg Van Roten
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The Duff Man
Footballguy
I am asking myself how many of these guys are better than league replacement level? That is how Kc rolls. Top heavy and most of the roster is under $2M. Versus the Bills that have a lot more guys in the $2-$10M window.
Poyer and Edmunds definitely are better than whatever cheap replacement is out there. Maybe Phillips and Saffold? I am not sure anyone else is.
Gilliam $2M and Neal $3M are the two best examples of guys eating up cap. They are going to have to go cheap at more positions and find some money.
I have a nagging concern that Edmunds could be a monster in future in the right scheme. He isn’t even in his prime yet. I would let Poyer walk and change defensive scheme. Don’t see the latter happening.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Finally some clarity on Kim Pegula.
Crazy and sad. Sounds like she will never fully be back to normal and suffered fairly significant brain damage.
Watching what happened to Damar Hamlin had to be a total nightmare reliving it all again.
Crazy and sad. Sounds like she will never fully be back to normal and suffered fairly significant brain damage.
Watching what happened to Damar Hamlin had to be a total nightmare reliving it all again.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
That's weird, but these things happen. A colleague of mine who's only 3-4 years older than me dropped dead from a massive heart attack a couple of years ago. Guy was superficially in great health -- he was a regular at the gym -- but apparently had some undiagnosed heart issue that got him. Kind of scary.
I wish the team had just told us that last year. I've been walking around all this time assuming that this was a drug overdose or suicide attempt or something.
I wish the team had just told us that last year. I've been walking around all this time assuming that this was a drug overdose or suicide attempt or something.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I’m guessing that they didn’t say anything sooner for 2 reasons:
1) They were simply overwhelmed. Not only were they trying to navigate her health issues, they were trying to fill the massive gaps left by her absence as team Presidents.
2) They probably also kept waiting until they felt like they knew what her potential outcome was, but with it looking so dismal early and then really just not knowing (and probably not being as good as they’d hoped) they just kept delaying saying anything.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Both of these teams would've ****ing destroyed the Bills. Sad sack poverty franchise.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
This Super Bowl is exhibit A why you don’t invest so much in Dline (or defence in general).
In todays NFL the good QBs are going to get theirs. It is an arms race and you need protection and weapons with the former being more important in my opinion.
How affective was the amazing Philly Dline in that game? Makes me pissed the Bills wasted so much capital trying to improve theirs.
(Although I have a feeling Rousseau is going to be a stud next year)
In todays NFL the good QBs are going to get theirs. It is an arms race and you need protection and weapons with the former being more important in my opinion.
How affective was the amazing Philly Dline in that game? Makes me pissed the Bills wasted so much capital trying to improve theirs.
(Although I have a feeling Rousseau is going to be a stud next year)
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Watching Mahomes win Super Bowl MVP due to two dump offs behind the line of scrimmage to wide open WRs just made me mad.
So I looked up the passing charts on NFL next gen stats, they had the last 8 games.
In those games Mahomes was:
64 of 68 for 6 TDs with passes BEHIND THE LINE OF SCRiMMAGE
48 of 64 for 5 TDs in the 0-5 yard window.
11 of his 16 TDs in that time were thrown less than 5 yards
By comparison, the 8 games for Josh that are posted.
19 for 28 with 0 TDs behind LOS
48 for 57 with 2 TDs 0-5 yards
Only 2 of his 14 TDs were less than 5 yards.
It is a copy cat league. The Bills need to get WAY WAY better at the short passing game.
So I looked up the passing charts on NFL next gen stats, they had the last 8 games.
In those games Mahomes was:
64 of 68 for 6 TDs with passes BEHIND THE LINE OF SCRiMMAGE
48 of 64 for 5 TDs in the 0-5 yard window.
11 of his 16 TDs in that time were thrown less than 5 yards
By comparison, the 8 games for Josh that are posted.
19 for 28 with 0 TDs behind LOS
48 for 57 with 2 TDs 0-5 yards
Only 2 of his 14 TDs were less than 5 yards.
It is a copy cat league. The Bills need to get WAY WAY better at the short passing game.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Frazier stepping away from the Bills for 2023. He's "returning to coaching" in 2024, but they don't say in what capacity or with what team.
I don't know if this is the right move or not, but I grew convinced during the second half of the season that this team is neither mentally nor physically tough enough to beat 3-4 good opponents in a row. While a lot of our problems are on the offensive side of the ball, it's impossible to overlook the way our defense gets shredded when we're no longer facing the Bears and Patriots of the world. I'm okay with making a change here.
I don't know if this is the right move or not, but I grew convinced during the second half of the season that this team is neither mentally nor physically tough enough to beat 3-4 good opponents in a row. While a lot of our problems are on the offensive side of the ball, it's impossible to overlook the way our defense gets shredded when we're no longer facing the Bears and Patriots of the world. I'm okay with making a change here.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
How much of that is coaching & how much is personnel?
Also worth mentioning the relationship between offense & defense. Bills have struggled a bit with ball control. They’re an up-tempo fast scoring offense.
That style of play can wear down their own defense. But they don’t really have a means of grinding clock with sustained drives, either.
I like Frazier - not sure if this is good or bad for the Bills. I guess we’ll find out in 2023.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
It's hard to tell and I'm not really qualified to judge. Statistically, our defense has been very good for quite a few years now, so it's not as if there's a track record of poor performance or anything. I just can't shake the impression that this unit consistently under-performs against good teams. It's fashionable to point to the Cincinnati game as evidence for that, but it's worth noting that the Bills played five games against the Dolphins and Jets this year and didn't really even slow either team down all that much in any of those games. No offense to either of those teams -- they're both clearly on the right trajectory -- but a championship contender shouldn't be having to sweat out end-game situations involving the likes of Skylar Thompson and whoever is playing QB for the Jets these days.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Hope everything is ok with Frazier. We will certainly find out how easy it is to coach defense and whether Frazier lead to underperformance or not. I certainly had my concerns, but the grass isn’t always greener. Aaron Schatz has maintained for years that good offense is sustainable and predictable while good defense is much tougher to be consistent year to year. And yet the Bills have consistently had top 5 defenses under Frazier.
A man’s timing is his own timing for whatever reason, but this certainly would have been better timed a month ago when guys like Fangio and Flores were on the market.
My guess is that they don’t actually hire anyone as a DC and that McDermott will call the plays. They announced the hiring of Al Holcomb as a “senior defensive assistant” which I’m guessing means he essentially works as the DC preparing the team during the week, but McDermott ultimately game plans and calls plays.
Not a big fan of that to be honest.
A man’s timing is his own timing for whatever reason, but this certainly would have been better timed a month ago when guys like Fangio and Flores were on the market.
My guess is that they don’t actually hire anyone as a DC and that McDermott will call the plays. They announced the hiring of Al Holcomb as a “senior defensive assistant” which I’m guessing means he essentially works as the DC preparing the team during the week, but McDermott ultimately game plans and calls plays.
Not a big fan of that to be honest.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Liked for using the Patriots as an example
The Duff Man
Footballguy
The Diggs stuff is hilarious. He got his wish last off season, tied to the Bills for several more seasons with a big pay day.
Cap hit is now too high to make a change. He ain’t going anywhere.
Cap hit is now too high to make a change. He ain’t going anywhere.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Glad we didn’t pay what Edmunds wanted.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I like Edmunds, and I could easily be talked into the proposition that we will regret the decision not to extend him when we could have done so. But I would have been angry if we paid him that contract. I don't care if he's the reincarnation of Chris Spielman and Mike Singletary rolled into one. We cannot afford to pay any MLB $18M/year while our $250M QB is getting chased all over the field. That's just a complete and total non-starter.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Give me a solid but unspectacular MLB and put the rest of that money into the OL.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I’m with you guys. I think a lot of fans were overly hard on Edmunds, but the position just isn’t a premium position to begin with and that contract seems like they’re counting on upside over what he’s shown. Because he still hasn’t put it all together and I have serious doubts he can. If you’re going to get paid that much at that position, you gotta be able to affect both the pass and the run. And while he stresses offenses in special ways against the pass because of his size and speed, he gets washed out in the run game way too often and is a step slow or too easily fooled when diagnosing plays as well.
To get that much money, he’d need to make the entire defense better. Both with performance and leadership. Maybe you give that contract to Ray Lewis. Edmunds is not Lewis.
To get that much money, he’d need to make the entire defense better. Both with performance and leadership. Maybe you give that contract to Ray Lewis. Edmunds is not Lewis.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Bills reportedly interested in Lavonte David. The numbers would absolutely be the big thing, but I’d see that as an upgrade over Edmunds IMO. Though at 33, gotta question just how much he can continue to offer. Would have to be a pretty reasonable deal.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I have always thought that Edmunds lacked instincts. With his size and speed and the talent around him he should have dominated in that role.
He is still only 25 and his best years could be ahead of him. He can be worth the contract for the Bears and it still be right for the Bills to let him walk.
He is still only 25 and his best years could be ahead of him. He can be worth the contract for the Bears and it still be right for the Bills to let him walk.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Deonte Harty (formerly Harris) -- two years, $13.5M total. $5M guaranteed.
He's a great returner, but we already have an excellent return guy. We have several guys on offense who can run various gadget plays. I'm not sure if the Bills have plans for him beyond that -- he is still young and has room to develop -- or maybe this is just a way of replacing Hines and McKenzie with one guy.
He's a great returner, but we already have an excellent return guy. We have several guys on offense who can run various gadget plays. I'm not sure if the Bills have plans for him beyond that -- he is still young and has room to develop -- or maybe this is just a way of replacing Hines and McKenzie with one guy.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I wouldn't mind that, as it would save a good bit of cap space (about $10 mil, I think), but it sounds like they are/were renegotiation with Hines to keep him.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
No objection to keeping Hines if they plan to use him this time. That was a really strange acquisition last year that left a bad taste in my mouth. It felt like Beane and McDermott were not on the same page that time.
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