Bill Barnwell, former Football Outsider and now ESPN+ football writer, ranked the Lions' offseason and called it the fifth worst in the league, clocking in at number 28.
Says Barnwell:
"What went wrong: Detroit otherwise repeatedly prioritized the league's least valuable positions. Secondary aside, it didn't do much in free agency. It let franchise spark plug
Jamaal Williams leave and replaced him with
David Montgomery on what is likely to be a two-year deal in the $12 million range; Montgomery has failed to average 4.0 yards per carry as a pro.
Alex Anzalone, who has posted solid numbers in coverage over the past two seasons, was brought back on a similarly sized pact.
That would all be fine, but what happened next seemed to beggar belief. The Lions used their two first-round picks on players at those same positions; they
traded down and used the 12th pick on running back
Jahmyr Gibbs before taking off-ball linebacker
Jack Campbell at No. 18. I
covered how running backs have been low-ceiling, low-reward picks in my pre-draft piece on
Bijan Robinson, while Campbell was the only off-ball linebacker drafted before the third round. It's difficult to imagine the Lions couldn't have addressed the position with
Drew Sanders or
Trenton Simpson later while using their first-rounder on a premium position, such as edge rusher.
Their second-round picks were at positions of need, but Holmes again went for some of the lowest-value positions in football in safety (Branch) and tight end (
Sam LaPorta). The Lions didn't come out of this draft with an edge rusher to play across from
Aidan Hutchinson or any other front seven help beyond Campbell. They did use a third-round pick on
Hendon Hooker, who could replace
Jared Goff in the long term if the team sours on its starting quarterback, but he is already 25 and is recovering from a
torn ACL."
In case anybody is wondering the Jets were in the twenties, too. Gave up too much for an unknown commodity in Aaron Rodgers.
Understand the criticism. Holmes zigged when most of NFL community expected him to zag.
This draft will likely be looked at with ridicule or wonder depending on what happens even this year. Most drafts they say you need to wait three years but this draft we should know beginning this season.
At least the first three picks are expected to start this year and I think Branch is a distinct possibility as well.
Holmes wasn’t afraid to go against the grain. The Lions have a definitive type of player they want in the draft.
This is the most excited I’ve been waiting for the season to start since about forever. Part of that excitement is related to the Lions believing they can compete for the title this year and that is how they drafted. We’re they BSing us when they said that their picks were also the Best Player available?
I don’t think so, I think they really believe it.
PFF graded all 32 team's offseason last week. CIN, CLE, PIT, PHI, and SEA all received an A. Detroit was in next tier with an A- (Aside - NYJ got a B, with only 8 teams receiving a lower grade.)
DETROIT LIONS
Offseason Grade: A-
The Lions have had an exceptional offseason. They set about free agency filling all of their biggest holes on the roster, buying the team the flexibility to draft the best player available and not have to chase needs. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton could all see the majority of snaps in the secondary, while David Montgomery can carry the load at running back and Graham Glasgow provides valuable interior stability on the offensive line.
Their draft was a curious run of low-value positions, but it’s hard to dislike the players they drafted. Jahmyr Gibbs is the most difficult pick to endorse from an opportunity-cost standpoint, but the Lions brought in some excellent players. Quarterback Hendon Hooker in the third round is an outstanding roll of the dice in a way it would not have been in the first round.
PFF Offseason Grade - Detroit (7:46) - came out after the article, Monson says he'd actually push the A- to an A bc he's taking a more nuanced approach to evaluating the draft.
The ESPN grade can only be justified if you ignore that they completely overhauled the defensive backfield. Those 3 FA DB signings are transformative and they did it in a prudent fashion, two mercenary deals plus a 3-year for a very solid CB2 in Sutton. Still don't have a true #1 Corner and not addressing that in the draft is a fair criticism. But they took one of the worst defensive backfields and elevated it dramatically. Now they're solid at Corner and have outstanding players at Nickel and Safety (you could make an argument the S combinations will be Top 5 but we'll have to see how this shakes out, lot of versatile players in yet to be defined roles.)
WRT Montgomery replacing Jamaal, I'm fine with it in terms of production. Both are above average in pass pro, Monty is a better receiver, seems like a push across the board otherwise. Kind of a weak argument to say "this dude hasn't avg 4.0" when it's 3.9 replacing 4.0 but then again I'd look askance at anyone who thinks YPC is a good evaluation metric.
Leadership skills....this is tricky bc Williams is a great locker room with incredible passion for the game, his teammates, et al. He's also....
kind of a weird guy? In a wholesome way but it's a bit of a front; David is a good leader in a calming vet presence way, and we def don't lack for high energy, vocal leadership in the locker room. I don't want to sound like I'm denigrating #30 bc he's been awesome but if they low key wanted a slightly different flavor (personality wise) I could see it.
The draft is definitely open for debate. They used precious draft capital on literally the four least impactful positions in terms of WAR and salary allocation. The latter is especially egregious from an overall roster construction prospective. The math is simple: utilize high draft picks on premium positions, you're sitting on rookie contracts at key positions that give you an advantage over other teams. Use those same picks on low impact, low salary allocation positions and you are ceding that edge.
PFF Detroit Lions Draft Grade - this is a pretty fair eval; points out the criticisms but explains the rationale of what they were doing instead of just dismissing it with "no way bc positional value."
If you step back and look at the actual players they got, and how they'll fit into the 2023 roster, it starts to make more sense.
- Gibbs has exceptional playmaker abilities especially as a receiver
- Campbell gives the Lions potentially the best offball they have had in a decade
- LaPorta is very versatile alignment wise and offers great YAC
- Branch is really solid player you can use as a Swiss army knife
- Hooker is simply taking a swing at a sensible price
Now, looking at alternatives....personally I wanted a potential CB1, losing Witherspoon to Seattle forced them to recalibrate. I was hoping we'd take Nolan Smith or an equivalent Edge, but how often do those guys work out? First rounders outside the Top Ten flop more than 50% of the time.
Detroit does have an Edge opposite Hutch in James Houston IV (8 sacks in 7 games), and they are hoping either 2nd year guy Paschal or 3rd year man Onwuzurike are healthy. They also have productive veterans in Charles Harris and Romeo Okwara who are healthy again. The DE/ED/designated pass rusher LB roles should be fine. Obviously the one area of weakness along the line is interior pass rush. There are about 25-27 NFL teams with that same complaint.
Anyway, I don't want to come across as too defensive bc I def think Holmes zigged when the expectation was it was time to zag. But he's done an exceptional job over the last 2.5 years and has earned the benefit of the doubt. He stayed true to the path he chose: fill the positions of need with FA to give you flexibility in the draft, and then use the draft to upgrade with players who would be ready to contribute Week 1. Completely agree with
@Moonlight this draft is different than most in that we'll know after Y1 if it was the right way to go based on the January results.
@rockaction I know Sam Monson is not the favorite PFF analyst for your team thread but
here you go (< 5 min) +
Draft Grade (13:33)
