***2023 Free Agency Thread*** (1 Viewer)

[zamboni]

Hunt seems to be the only remaining FA RB that may justifiably create another messy RBBC.

Was just thinking of this earlier and for the most part the RB FA period did NOT alter the RB landscape. Actually really minor impact.

We still got the draft but really only two RB's are the kind of lock year one starter/big role types and one of them(Gibbs) is not a high volume runner. Will be a slew of RB's in the 3rd-5th round putting heat on starters but my point is I'm not sure we are gong to see the changing RB landscape a lot of us, me included, thought. At least not to start next season.

More the culmination of a trend rather than a true alteration, but I would suggest the big shake up we’re seeing is just the tripling down of RBBCs as the norm. And not just shared backfields either but more three-headed backfields with not only specialized roles but more of willingness to sub regardless of situation. As you pointed out somewhere else (and I agree), the skill players seem to be getting smaller and a byproduct of that may well be that 3 back systems take further root.

Certainly don’t think I’m breaking any news to you on this front, just saying that perhaps the shakeup were getting is just different with worse implications for fantasy than what many were expecting. With all these FA vets, plus the last wave of draft classes and the deep draft of interesting but not dominant backs on the horizon, the position has become totally saturated with talent.

I just finished a full on 3 year rebuild in one league, during which I ignored RB other than to churn the waiver wire or trade mid round draft picks or inconsequential receivers for committee or PPR backs. It worked great, my team is sick now, and of course that isn’t some novel strategy to a rebuild. Point is, I think that type of strategy is going to apply more to all types of teams moving forward. Not just rebuilds, but really just any successful fantasy team will likely be built with a stable of weekly upside plug ins at RB.

Excellent post…been beating this drum for quite awhile now…there are going to be fewer and fewer bellcow RBs…most backfields will have some form of RBBC…some will be worse than others…it is one of the reasons I don’t understand that when teams add a RB some fantasy owners seem shocked by it because it is becoming standard-operating-procedure…that thinking needs to change and outside of the Derek Henry’s and a few other RBs you need to worry more about the RB carving out a specific, reliable role that you can count on.

I don't think most people are shocked, but rather disappointed that *their* guy is being committeed away because it's so valuable to have a bell cow due to position scarcity.

That is probably is a better way to put it…but I still think the smart strategy is to just assume it is going to happen at some point because it probably will…there is just too much RB talent out there, they take too much of a punishment and many teams are not looking to invest big $ into one guy…and if you are lucky enough to have a bell cow the reality is if their name isn’t Derek Henry their shelf-life may not be too long.

Agree 100%. It's a position we have to get used to churning and burning.

 

[travdogg]

Colts signed Isaiah McKenzie.

I think that's an underrated move. I think he's better than Parris Campbell, and obviously offers a lot on special teams if they use him in that way. McKenzie has been a pretty good player for Buffalo, but had some rough drops last year, still he gets open frequently, and is very good after the catch. There's a path to the starting slot job for him in Indy, and possibly the #2 WR role.

 

[The Frankman]

I really don't understand the NFL market.. it seems that owners (regardless of production) refuse to pay certain positions, but will drastically overpay others (again, regardless of production). The Safety market took a massive hit with Julian Love and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson signing deals well below what they were looking for, despite them having really good numbers/metrics. We saw this happen earlier in FA with elite RBs and initially last year with WRs before the young talented WRs staged a mass holdout. The TE market really seems to be weak also with Gesicki baasically getting a 1 yr/$4.5 million deal. However, we've already seen a number of QB get massive deals that didn't seem to factor in their talent/past for years... just seems odd to me.

Maybe I'm old but if you are talented and have been a top producer for years in a way that has resulted in your team being successful, you should get paid. Of course, defining production in a quantifiable way is a bit lacking at times in the NFL as opposed the the sabermetric community within the MLB.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Very surprised the Lions couldn’t or wouldn’t at least match that.

If I had to look at a list of free agents, and I had to pick out three that would never again accomplish what they had JUST accomplished, I would start with this guy.
I also don't really think the Saints are in a position to be handing out contracts like this to rotational running backs either, but Loomis gonna Loomis.

Feel the same way about Javon Hargrave. He was on the top of my list of Eagles I didn't want to bring back.

 

[Terpman22]

I really don't understand the NFL market.. it seems that owners (regardless of production) refuse to pay certain positions, but will drastically overpay others (again, regardless of production). The Safety market took a massive hit with Julian Love and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson signing deals well below what they were looking for, despite them having really good numbers/metrics. We saw this happen earlier in FA with elite RBs and initially last year with WRs before the young talented WRs staged a mass holdout. The TE market really seems to be weak also with Gesicki baasically getting a 1 yr/$4.5 million deal. However, we've already seen a number of QB get massive deals that didn't seem to factor in their talent/past for years... just seems odd to me.

Maybe I'm old but if you are talented and have been a top producer for years in a way that has resulted in your team being successful, you should get paid. Of course, defining production in a quantifiable way is a bit lacking at times in the NFL as opposed the the sabermetric community within the MLB.

You gotta be elite, and prove it for a while to get elite pay. Also gotta be a good guy/stand up teammate. These guys are nice players but they aren't of Jessie Bates' quality, obviously.

 

[zamboni]

D'Ernest Johnson signs a 1-year deal with the Jags.

As an Etienne owner, not sure if I should be concerned about this one - he flashed two years ago when Chubb and Hunt went down, but was absolutely non-existent last year as both guys stayed healthy. And not sure if Johnson's success was more of a function of the Browns' OL.

 

[ghostguy123]

D'Ernest Johnson signs a 1-year deal with the Jags.

As an Etienne owner, not sure if I should be concerned about this one - he flashed two years ago when Chubb and Hunt went down, but was absolutely non-existent last year as both guys stayed healthy. And not sure if Johnson's success was more of a function of the Browns' OL.

You should not be concerned. Shocked you even have to ask that

 

[zamboni]

D'Ernest Johnson signs a 1-year deal with the Jags.

As an Etienne owner, not sure if I should be concerned about this one - he flashed two years ago when Chubb and Hunt went down, but was absolutely non-existent last year as both guys stayed healthy. And not sure if Johnson's success was more of a function of the Browns' OL.

You should not be concerned. Shocked you even have to ask that

Maybe not a big concern, but have to be mindful of Pederson's traditional penchant for RBBC. Johnson appears to be an upgrade over Hasty.

 

[grateful zed]

things have slowed considerably.

 

[Grahamburn]

I really don't understand the NFL market.. it seems that owners (regardless of production) refuse to pay certain positions, but will drastically overpay others (again, regardless of production). The Safety market took a massive hit with Julian Love and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson signing deals well below what they were looking for, despite them having really good numbers/metrics. We saw this happen earlier in FA with elite RBs and initially last year with WRs before the young talented WRs staged a mass holdout. The TE market really seems to be weak also with Gesicki baasically getting a 1 yr/$4.5 million deal. However, we've already seen a number of QB get massive deals that didn't seem to factor in their talent/past for years... just seems odd to me.

Maybe I'm old but if you are talented and have been a top producer for years in a way that has resulted in your team being successful, you should get paid. Of course, defining production in a quantifiable way is a bit lacking at times in the NFL as opposed the the sabermetric community within the MLB.

One of the big issues I seem to notice with free agents is very few of them live up to their contracts. For every splash signing this year there's a splash signing from two years ago who's getting released.

That, and I think teams are getting smarter with their dollars for exactly those reasons above realizing they can get replacement level production from players coming in via the draft for much cheaper.

Then post draft these free agents start to find their homes to fill out rosters.

 

[The Frankman]

@Terpman22 @Grahamburn for the record, Love wasn't breaking the FA safety market, but he was solid and versatile for the Giants and took over signal-calling when they lost star safety McKinney mid-season. The argument COULD be made Garder-Johnson was giving elite value for the Iggles, and he got nowhere near his projected market value on most sites. The point I'm trying to make is seeminbgly guys who are giving near-elite/elite production for a year can't even remotely cash in when they do it at RB/arguably WR (though DK/A.J. Brown might have changed that)/other positions. But Good LORD, people are willing to throw stupid amounts of money at the QB posiiton regardless of status.

Now, some of it is probably due to the ability to "funny money" a contract (void years/option/unreasonable incentives/signing bonus) but man, the imbalance that exists is just weird considering QBs get paid a much higher yearly salary.

 

[Terpman22]

@Terpman22 @Grahamburn for the record, Love wasn't breaking the FA safety market, but he was solid and versatile for the Giants and took over signal-calling when they lost star safety McKinney mid-season. The argument COULD be made Garder-Johnson was giving elite value for the Iggles, and he got nowhere near his projected market value on most sites. The point I'm trying to make is seeminbgly guys who are giving near-elite/elite production for a year can't even remotely cash in when they do it at RB/arguably WR (though DK/A.J. Brown might have changed that)/other positions. But Good LORD, people are willing to throw stupid amounts of money at the QB posiiton regardless of status.

Now, some of it is probably due to the ability to "funny money" a contract (void years/option/unreasonable incentives/signing bonus) but man, the imbalance that exists is just weird considering QBs get paid a much higher yearly salary.

I hear ya. I'm just saying re: the bolded, I could be wrong, but the NFL doesn't usually go out of their way to give big contracts to potential "one year wonders" they usually want someone to prove it. Running back market, is very tough b/c after you prove it for a few years, teams view them pretty much as "spent or run down" Same goes for WR's USUALLY you don't get that just off one year. Timing is everything though. Good to very good WR's are still eating healthily in my view, Christian Kirk for example just last year. The true studs should and still get paid. Wait til we see Justin Jefferson's next contract, Jamarr Chase, etc.