2023 NFL MVP race (2 Viewers)

[ShamrockPride]

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Let me see here...

Buff - 58yds
Phi - 88yds-1td
KC - 62yds

100+ against the rest (except NE)

Only tears up the pretenders.

Next...

 

[TennesseeJed]

Only tears up the pretenders.

My team is in 1st place, but he has done a pretty good job tearing up my team both times I have faced him...

 

[fred_1_15301]

Dak is number one in EPA and in QBR. He passes the eye test and his team is 9-3. He didn't throw four picks on the way to a loss and hasn't turned the ball over like Hurts. Gotta go Dak here. Hurts is so last year. Dak's just been better. Keeps a foot inbounds or doesn't get Refereeagled and we're talking Dallas is 10-2 and Philly 9-2.

Ranking them today I have Hurts a hair over Dak....but only by a hair. And Purdy only a smidge behind Dak.

Nobody is running away with this, but those three are the only ones in serious contention right now

I honestly think it ends up being the QB of whoever gets the 1 seed in the NFC.

 

[Deamon]

Dak is number one in EPA and in QBR. He passes the eye test and his team is 9-3. He didn't throw four picks on the way to a loss and hasn't turned the ball over like Hurts. Gotta go Dak here. Hurts is so last year. Dak's just been better. Keeps a foot inbounds or doesn't get Refereeagled and we're talking Dallas is 10-2 and Philly 9-2.

Ranking them today I have Hurts a hair over Dak....but only by a hair. And Purdy only a smidge behind Dak.

Nobody is running away with this, but those three are the only ones in serious contention right now

I honestly think it ends up being the QB of whoever gets the 1 seed in the NFC.

I'd agree with that. Purdy would need to boost his stats a bit though.

 

[jobarules]

Dak is number one in EPA and in QBR. He passes the eye test and his team is 9-3. He didn't throw four picks on the way to a loss and hasn't turned the ball over like Hurts. Gotta go Dak here. Hurts is so last year. Dak's just been better. Keeps a foot inbounds or doesn't get Refereeagled and we're talking Dallas is 10-2 and Philly 9-2.

Ranking them today I have Hurts a hair over Dak....but only by a hair. And Purdy only a smidge behind Dak.

Nobody is running away with this, but those three are the only ones in serious contention right now

I honestly think it ends up being the QB of whoever gets the 1 seed in the NFC.

I'd agree with that. Purdy would need to boost his stats a bit though.

He leads the league in comp %, Y/A, and QB rating

 

[WaltonGoggins]

Hurts probably won’t win it his stats are okay with loads of talent and their record doesn’t hold water when they can’t even be considered the favorites vs 49ers. If the public doesn’t buy into him / his team can’t see why voters will differ. That doesn’t happen to MVP caliber QB with 1 loss at this point.

 

[jobarules]

Purdy leads the lead in completion %, Y/A, and QB rating. If the 49ers beat the Eagles in Philly he will jump up in odds.

Curious to see how they move after his dismantling of Philly

 

[jobarules]

Dak is number one in EPA and in QBR. He passes the eye test and his team is 9-3. He didn't throw four picks on the way to a loss and hasn't turned the ball over like Hurts. Gotta go Dak here. Hurts is so last year. Dak's just been better. Keeps a foot inbounds or doesn't get Refereeagled and we're talking Dallas is 10-2 and Philly 9-2.

Ranking them today I have Hurts a hair over Dak....but only by a hair. And Purdy only a smidge behind Dak.

Nobody is running away with this, but those three are the only ones in serious contention right now

I honestly think it ends up being the QB of whoever gets the 1 seed in the NFC.

I'd agree with that. Purdy would need to boost his stats a bit though.

How's 314, 4TD?

 

[Deamon]

Dak is number one in EPA and in QBR. He passes the eye test and his team is 9-3. He didn't throw four picks on the way to a loss and hasn't turned the ball over like Hurts. Gotta go Dak here. Hurts is so last year. Dak's just been better. Keeps a foot inbounds or doesn't get Refereeagled and we're talking Dallas is 10-2 and Philly 9-2.

Ranking them today I have Hurts a hair over Dak....but only by a hair. And Purdy only a smidge behind Dak.

Nobody is running away with this, but those three are the only ones in serious contention right now

I honestly think it ends up being the QB of whoever gets the 1 seed in the NFC.

I'd agree with that. Purdy would need to boost his stats a bit though.

How's 314, 4TD?

Yep, that helps.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Dak is number one in EPA and in QBR. He passes the eye test and his team is 9-3. He didn't throw four picks on the way to a loss and hasn't turned the ball over like Hurts. Gotta go Dak here. Hurts is so last year. Dak's just been better. Keeps a foot inbounds or doesn't get Refereeagled and we're talking Dallas is 10-2 and Philly 9-2.

Ranking them today I have Hurts a hair over Dak....but only by a hair. And Purdy only a smidge behind Dak.

Nobody is running away with this, but those three are the only ones in serious contention right now

I honestly think it ends up being the QB of whoever gets the 1 seed in the NFC.

I'd agree with that. Purdy would need to boost his stats a bit though.

How's 314, 4TD?

He made a very strong case tonight for sure. It’s up for grabs now.

 

[WaltonGoggins]

49ers were favored by 3 to win in Philly don’t think many take eagles seriously

 

[The Duff Man]

Purdy was garbage with his studs out. I don’t know how you get past that and vote him as MVP. Are they winning because of him?

But not a lot of other great options so maybe by default.

 

[WaltonGoggins]

Hard to be impressed when the team who was favored wins. Not only myself but many were saying this game was the lock easy free money of the nfl season. If Vegas says the eagles are the dogs then they are saying their qb isn’t the mvp if so they wouldn’t be getting 3 pts at home with 10-1 record.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Purdy was garbage with his studs out. I don’t know how you get past that and vote him as MVP. Are they winning because of him?

But not a lot of other great options so maybe by default.

Are people still trying to spin this tired narrative about Purdy? Really?

He should be the frontrunner at this point. In fact, the only player I’d even have close is Tyreek.

 

[travdogg]

I don't see how Purdy or Hurts have a better case than Prescott, who has been lights out other than his egg against SF that was like 2 months ago.

 

[jobarules]

I don't see how Purdy or Hurts have a better case than Prescott, who has been lights out other than his egg against SF that was like 2 months ago.

Cowboys haven't beaten a single good team all year. If they beat Philly next week then I'll consider it

 

[renesauz]

Purdy may have nudged into the lead today, but it's still a three man race.

 

[FarFromHome]

What's the marker for when someone beats a good team or not? Does that team need to have a record of .500 and above? Does it have to be a good defense? Dak beat the Seahawks but they weren't good enough to count? That leaves like what 5 of these good teams that matter? Is Dak able to schedule just these good teams so we can evaluate? Just wondering.

 

[travdogg]

Man, I feel like I'm WAY different than the consensus, because I'm not sure I have Hurts or Purdy in my top-5 for MVP.

It feels like a big part of the case for both Hurts and Purdy is record, and if that's the case, why not Lamar Jackson? Or Tua? What's the big difference there?

 

[FarFromHome]

I think this is the most open I can remember for an MVP race. 5 of these QBs have muddied the waters with no clear choice. **cough cough** tyreek....

 

[Anarchy99]

Man, I feel like I'm WAY different than the consensus, because I'm not sure I have Hurts or Purdy in my top-5 for MVP.

It feels like a big part of the case for both Hurts and Purdy is record, and if that's the case, why not Lamar Jackson? Or Tua? What's the big difference there?

Because a team’s record has been the leading consideration for who the MVP has been when it’s been a QB. If there is a decent gap between the top team and several other teams, that trumps actual on-field performance and numbers. That’s just the way it is.

With the Eagles losing, that gives hope to some other candidates that had been sort of in the background.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I can absolutely see the arguments for Hurts and Purdy for being MVP. They are both having very nice seasons and both of their teams are performing very well. With that said—I also think that they are the two MVP quarterback candidates that each have positional players that also arguably are in the MVP race (C-Mac and AJ Brown). This element does strengthen the case for guys like Dak and Lamar for me. Specifically in the case of Lamar—he really is doing well with far fewer weapons on the offensive side of the ball relative to what the other qb MVP candidates have.

 

[NinerGang]

I can absolutely see the arguments for Hurts and Purdy for being MVP. They are both having very nice seasons and both of their teams are performing very well. With that said—I also think that they are the two MVP quarterback candidates that each have positional players that also arguably are in the MVP race (C-Mac and AJ Brown). This element does strengthen the case for guys like Dak and Lamar for me. Specifically in the case of Lamar—he really is doing well with far fewer weapons on the offensive side of the ball relative to what the other qb MVP candidates have.

Purdy getting paid 50 times less than Hurts is the epitome of value

 

[jobarules]

Mahomes doesn't even belong in the top 5 IMO

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I can absolutely see the arguments for Hurts and Purdy for being MVP. They are both having very nice seasons and both of their teams are performing very well. With that said—I also think that they are the two MVP quarterback candidates that each have positional players that also arguably are in the MVP race (C-Mac and AJ Brown). This element does strengthen the case for guys like Dak and Lamar for me. Specifically in the case of Lamar—he really is doing well with far fewer weapons on the offensive side of the ball relative to what the other qb MVP candidates have.

Purdy getting paid 50 times less than Hurts is the epitome of value

Purdy will get paid. His career starting off behind Jimmy G and lance have a lot to do with his current pay situation. His next contract will be huge—and deservingly so.

 

[-OZ-]

His career starting off behind Jimmy G and lance have a lot to do with his current pay situation.

The only thing that has bearing on his contract is that he was drafted last.

 

[BassNBrew]

Hill on pace for 131-2100-17

 

[BobbyLayne]

Tyreek Hill has 5 games with more than 150 yards receiving (and a 6th with 146)

There's no clear cut best QB but he's head and shoulders above everyone in the game

CMC would be another good choice if we were actually interested in non-QBs

 

[BassNBrew]

Tyreek Hill has 5 games with more than 150 yards receiving (and a 6th with 146)

There's no clear cut best QB but he's head and shoulders above everyone in the game

CMC would be another good choice if we were actually interested in non-QBs

He's my favorite player but CMac's total yards will barely break 2000 at the current pace. He's just not going to have the historical type numbers to garner votes.

 

[Wingnut]

Purdy now in 3 way tie as betting favorite for MVP, along with Hurts and Dak.

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[BobbyLayne]

Updated Odds:

Dak Prescott: +300
Jalen Hurts: +350
Brock Purdy: +350
Pat Mahomes: +600
Tua Tagovailoa: +800
Lamar Jackson: +800
CJ Stroud: +2500
Tyreek Hill: +2500
Christian McCaffrey: +3000

 

[Wingnut]

I put a few dollars on Purdy for MVP at +5000 odds back in May.

 

[renesauz]

If it stays muddy between the top 3 QBs and Hill does manage to break the record, I could see it

 

[Anarchy99]

If it stays muddy between the top 3 QBs and Hill does manage to break the record, I could see it

If it stays muddy for top overall record, Tua would probably also get votes . . . thus taking votes away from Hill. If Tua doesn't get votes, it probably means the Dolphins aren't close to a bye in the playoffs . . . thus taking votes away from Hill. Not sure there's an outcome for MIA that takes votes away from Tua but builds Hill's chances.

 

[Wingnut]

The two QBs tied with Brock Purdy for MVP odds were beat by a combined score of 84-29 by Brock Purdy and The 49ers.

 

[wdh76]

The two QBs tied with Brock Purdy for MVP odds were beat by a combined score of 84-29 by Brock Purdy and The 49ers.

He also lost to three teams that are a combined 18-17.........

 

[Anarchy99]

Purdy may lose votes to CMC. McCaffrey is on pace for close to 2100 YFS/25 combined TD. We still have a lot of games to play . . . the candidates could be shuffled and reshuffled multiple times between know and the end of the season.

 

[opensourcebeer]

I put a few dollars on Purdy for MVP at +5000 odds back in May.

Same here....$20 at +5000.

 

[Chaz McNulty]

What's the marker for when someone beats a good team or not? Does that team need to have a record of .500 and above? Does it have to be a good defense? Dak beat the Seahawks but they weren't good enough to count? That leaves like what 5 of these good teams that matter? Is Dak able to schedule just these good teams so we can evaluate? Just wondering.

They definitely don't count.

I just looked at who they have played. When the Seahawks and Rams are your 2 best wins, there is an argument against you.

 

[Chaz McNulty]

Updated Odds:

Dak Prescott: +300
Jalen Hurts: +350
Brock Purdy: +350
Pat Mahomes: +600
Tua Tagovailoa: +800
Lamar Jackson: +800
CJ Stroud: +2500
Tyreek Hill: +2500
Christian McCaffrey: +3000

With how close the voting is between QB's, I think there is great value on taking a flyer on Tyreek or McCaffrey.

 

[ZWK]

A few top 10 QB leaderboards through wk11

EPA
110.8 Brock Purdy
101.5 Josh Allen
72.9 Dak Prescott
68.0 Justin Herbert
64.3 CJ Stroud
62.0 Patrick Mahomes
59.0 Tua Tagovailoa
58.0 Jalen Hurts
38.8 Kirk Cousins
34.7 Jared Goff

QBR
77.0 Brock Purdy
73.9 Dak Prescott
71.7 Justin Herbert
69.9 Josh Allen
69.4 Patrick Mahomes
64.4 Jalen Hurts
64.0 Jared Goff
63.1 Kirk Cousins
62.0 Lamar Jackson
61.7 Tua Tagovailoa

PFF Grade
89.4 Dak Prescott
88.6 Josh Allen
87.6 Lamar Jackson
87.2 Patrick Mahomes
86.9 Jared Goff
86.4 Tua Tagovailoa
86.1 Kirk Cousins
84.0 Trevor Lawrence
83.7 CJ Stroud
83.3 Matthew Stafford

DYAR
1203 Brock Purdy
1112 Josh Allen
975 CJ Stroud
918 Jared Goff
901 Tua Tagovailoa
809 Patrick Mahomes
754 Dak Prescott
716 Justin Herbert
682 Lamar Jackson
559 Kirk Cousins

ANY/A
9.1 Brock Purdy
8.0 Tua Tagovailoa
7.7 CJ Stroud
7.2 Kirk Cousins
7.1 Dak Prescott
7.0 Lamar Jackson
6.9 Jared Goff
6.8 Josh Allen
6.8 Justin Herbert
6.4 Russell Wilson

Brock Purdy leading everything except PFF grade, where he is not listed (14th). Josh Allen & Dak Prescott generally showing out best among the players who make all 5 lists, both with an average rank of 3.6. The current favorite in the betting odds, Jalen Hurts, only makes 2 of the 5 lists.

After week 11, Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott had the strongest statistical seasons. That is still very true after week 13. Here is a comparison of those 3 plus Jalen Hurts through wk13.

Brock Purdy
1st in EPA (131.2)
1st in QBR (75.6)
12th in PFF Grade (83.6)
1st in DYAR (1380)
1st in ANY/A (9.1)
5th in WPA (2.7)
3.5 avg rank

Dak Prescott
3rd in EPA (103.3)
2nd in QBR (75.4)
1st in PFF Grade (92.2)
3rd in DYAR (1090)
4th in ANY/A (7.6)
1st in WPA (3.2)
2.3 avg rank

Josh Allen
2nd in EPA (124.3)
3rd in QBR (72.4)
2nd in PFF Grade (91.4)
2nd in DYAR (1223)
8th in ANY/A (6.8)
2nd in WPA (3.1)
3.2 avg rank

Jalen Hurts
7th in EPA (66.6)
8th in QBR (61.4)
13th in PFF Grade (82.2)
11th in DYAR (604)
13th in ANY/A (6.3)
6th in WPA (2.7)
9.7 avg rank

Allen obviously lags behind the others in team success, and Purdy has questions about more of his production being due to his teammates & offensive system (though that's already reflected here in his unimpressive PFF grade), so if the season was over my vote would be for Dak Prescott.

 

[Wingnut]

The fact that Mr Irrelevant is a starting QB in the NFL let alone in the MVP discussion (and a betting favorite) 13 weeks into the season is pretty damn amazing if you ask me. Especially since he's doing it behind a well below average O line.

 

[Anarchy99]

The fact that Mr Irrelevant is a stabrting QB in the NFL let alone in the MVP discussion (and a betting favorite) 13 weeks into the season is pretty damn amazing if you ask me. Especially since he's doing it behind a well below average O line.

SF O line ranked 13th so far

 

[Wingnut]

The fact that Mr Irrelevant is a stabrting QB in the NFL let alone in the MVP discussion (and a betting favorite) 13 weeks into the season is pretty damn amazing if you ask me. Especially since he's doing it behind a well below average O line.

SF O line ranked 13th so far

Allow me to retort:

Here's a chart that shows QB efficiency and pass protection. There are only 7 QBs with worse pass pro than SF, yet Purdy is thriving (spoiler: the others are not). Just look where he is on that chart. It's insane.

Link

"We should not punish Purdy for the system being great and having great players around him.

Yes Shanahan is awesome. Yes his skill group is Elite and best in NFL. He (Purdy) is also allowed to be part of the success.

This one chart also happens to destroy any “Purdy is only a product of the system” talk — he’s defying a below-average pass protection score in front of him. And the tape shows that too."

 

[joey]

if the 9ers continue to dominate…and especially if the 9ers can grab the 1 seed in the NFC, I think the Purdy story is too good to not give him the MVP (Mr Irrelevant + comeback from injury + questions surrounding him during 9ers mini-slump)

oh, and besides “the story”…it turns out his stats are incredible (as pointed out above)

 

[Wingnut]

Purdy has a the 2nd best CPOE and best EPA/play.

His offensive line is bottom 5 in pass protection (chart in link)

https://twitter.com/cashmahne/status/1732453035073233091?t=NBn7wgvY0vJGLpFIX1wKWw&s=19

One could make the argument that Purdy is carrying the 49ers.

 

[Wingnut]

Purdy story is too good to not give him the MVP (Mr Irrelevant + comeback from injury + questions

I don't know if the story is too good not to give it to him, but it would definitely be one of the greatest stories in the history of the league if he won it.

 

[jobarules]

Purdy story is too good to not give him the MVP (Mr Irrelevant + comeback from injury + questions

I don't know if the story is too good not to give it to him, but it would definitely be one of the greatest stories in the history of the league if he won it.

Only thing to top it off would be a Super Bowl to match Kurt Warner's story

 

[pinkstapler]

If Dak/the Cowboys lose to the Eagles this week, I think Purdy starts to run away with it. Much to the dismay of my +6000 Hill bet I got in a month ago lol.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

I'm not sure Purdy is even the best player on his team, McCaffrey is more important to what they do. Trent Williams is too.